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Mere Mortals In A Central Banker World
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
Mere Mortals In A Central Banker World
Plus 5% or minus 5%? That is the question and frankly it hinges far more on central bank and political policy than on any economic data, earnings, new products, etc.
A policy response in Europe that keeps Greece in the Euro for now and takes pressure off of the Spanish and Italian markets and stocks in Europe can quickly shoot up 5% or more. We might need a little help from the Fed to get a 5% move from our relatively lofty valuations, but that is possible as enough data has come out to justify an aggressive move by a very dovish Fed.
Failure to contain the growing solvency and devaluation risks soon will likely result in a quick and brutal continued sell-off as fears of contagion drag down the more resilient markets - Germany and the U.S. in particular. The crisis in Greece and growing problems in Spain and Italy are at a tipping point and if not addressed will drag down other markets. Even an aggressive Fed acting alone can't do much to mitigate the risk to the U.S. markets, especially in a scenario with a rising dollar.
So it feels like TARP week all over again. We may not get the 8% swings we got then, but the volatility is picking up and it is difficult to do much in the short term when the real driver, like it or not, will be what decision a bunch of politicians and central bankers, each with their own agenda, goals, and baggage come up with.
I believe Europe will see the danger of the escalating problems and come up with enough short term liquidity and longer term ideas like project bonds and ESM with a bank license to give the can one more good kick. Merkel and even the Bundesbank have grown quiet - to me a sign that they are softening their stance. I could be wrong, but that is how I'm leaning, but with all the volatility out there and risk of bad decisions, it is key to remain small and nimble.
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So everything is fixed..right?? /sarc
It's a good time to be short on the long and long on the short ...
even my dog is
There is no profit in the market other than that generated by volatility. Traders are second guessing and profiting with each up or down moment, but how will they cope if they miss the collapse?
The Algobots are doing an amazing quote stuffing job floating the markets....... As such state side volatility is far less than it should be and far less than europe.....
BTFD
attempt to beat Boilermaker to the post..... SURPRISE!!
Another good kick of the can ... I'm afraid that's how I see it too.
Insanity - Doing the same thing over and over, while expecting different results.
yes, it's called voting
..now get those delusional sheep to the voting booths so we can fake democracy
Amen bro.
Psych 101, Approach-avoidance conflicts. (Kurt Lewin)
We're sitting at SPX over fucking 1300...
Any QE "assistance" by fucknanke would be a total shit storm for him and he knows it.
Oh, wait...this is the Fed we're talking about. Nevermind, they don't give a flying shit what anyone below them thinks.
Another kick of the can for greater pain down the road.
Ship of Fools.
Again, I am dumbfounded. Futures up this morning on unemployment and GDP outlooks. WTF???? Talk about chasing windmills.
This is fucking old.
The Bilderberg Meeting this weekend will probably decide on more printing. All these psychopaths doen,t know any better, they don,t even care.
Yes the new investor/player in the room is a bunch of Politicians and Central bankers...and what they do is game change...change the rules...so that any Econ 101 you think you know..they change it ....I think the word for the next 5 years is PROTECTION.....countries are going to start protecting themselves..the Germans are not just going to GIVE money to the Greeks or to Spain for nothing...I think the give me the gold idea as a good one...that way the Greeks and the Spainards have something to lose if they don´t get it together....or if they are lying...Emerging countries are going to start protecting themselves by getting out of Euros and Dollars.....and to start thinking of other options.....like China and Russia is doing...I want banks to fail....they all will not..some will survive and will take up the slack...they might be new faces that you have not seen at the country club....but they are bankers and they are hard workers too....Bondholders too...they can lose money...if yo buy into a company that fails...you fail....in the future you will be more astute in your investing...some people will lose their yachts...so be it...pensions too...if they keep telling their beneficieries that they are making 8% every year...and they are not....benefits will be cut....and so it should be...
Peter Peter Peter....there's nothing politicians or central banksters can do to change the inevitable now.
There's more horrorshow than curtain to conceal it regardless of what the zoorocrats concoct.
This is the correct take, I believe. The posts above that describe "kicking the can", while essentially correct, seem to imply that there is a solution out there, if not for weak technocrats taking the easy way out. They are weak... they are liers... Most likely sociopaths, etc. But there is no solution. It's either kick the can or collapse. And the collapse will be epic no matter how much longer the can is kicked.
You are kidding right! Look hate to break it to those outside the Euro, but the Germans are not going to bankrupt themselves for the markets.
Best thing to invest in is Arms Makers its a growth industry!
PT - dude you sound like head of trading (old school, good with red wine, port and coutryclubs) who walks out on the floor and tells his traders ""be carefull"and gives them thumbs up with a grin.
And yeah like that sometimes you can be right sometimes wrong, so you can't even say told you so.
buy the fucking knife
They are going to kick the shit out of the can, the problem with each of these gimmicks is they're getting shorter-duration (smaller effects) before the next slump ... eventually they kick the shit out of it, and ... effin' nuffings!!
"... are we there yet? ..."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=XE0jI5unDOE
Nah, ... some countries can still muddle-through ... some ... but others can't. Those have actually kicked the bucket.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Sruu3EMWvqc
And I think the pending second US Sovereign Debt downgrade (outlook-negative) is going to make 'life' ... an adventure.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Lu3U6SoY0iE
Merkel and Germany changing their minds is the end for them and the German people....and it still doesn't solve any of the problems.