Merkel Facing German Revolt Over Greek Bailout

Tyler Durden's picture

A few days ago, when summarizing the key weakness of the second European bailout, we suggested that the fatal flaw in the entire package (which is predicated upon the expansion of the EFSF to about €1.5 trillion for full efficacy) are the "82 Million Soon To Be Very Angry Germans, Or How Euro Bailout #2 Could Cost Up To 56% Of German GDP." Specifically, we explained, "by not monetizing European debt on its books, the ECB has effectively left Germany holding the bag to the entire European bailout via the blank check SPV. The cost if things go wrong: a third of the country economic output, and the worst case scenario: a depression the likes of which Germany has not seen since the 1920-30s. Oh, and if France gets downgraded, Germany's pro rata share of funding the EFSF jumps to a mindboggling €1.385 trillion, or 56% of German GDP!" Sure enough, as the Telegraph's Ambrose Evans Pritchard confirms, the backlash has now officially begun.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing a storm of protest at home after yielding to EU calls for radical action to shore up Spain and Italy, raising doubts over her ability to implement the package.

Frank Schäffler, finance chair for the Free Democrats (FDP) in the ruling coalition, said the summit deal threatened "the castration of Germany's parliament" by shifting budget power to Europe.

Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank's chief, said the accord exposes Germany and other creditor states to "sizable risks" and greatly alters the EU's constitutional landscape.

Yes, that would be the head of the Bundesbank... The German Fed... The bank which, unlike the ECB, is actually putting the interests of the German people up front and center:

"The euro area has taken a big step toward a collectivisation of risks. This weakens the foundations of a monetary union where each is responsible for its own budget.

In the future, it is going to be even harder to uphold incentives for solid fiscal policies," he said. The choice of words undercuts claims by Ms Merkel, who has specifically denied that there is a "collectivisation of risks".

The outburst may complicate a forthcoming ruling by Germany's Constitutional Court on the legality of the bail-outs, though most legal experts expect the judges to tread carefully.

"Weidmann is like Thomas à Beckett," said David Marsh, author of a book on the Bundesbank. "He is no longer a Merkel man. He has gone over to the institution and is now sworn to defend the sanctity of German monetary conservatism."

It has gotten so bad in Germany that Merkel is now relying on the Social Democrats to endorse ger agenda. This is akin to Obama expecting the republicans to demand tax hikes for the uber wealthy.

Jacques Cailloux from RBS said EU leaders are at last "getting the message" but the deal is not enough to halt the crisis at any level. Greece's debt burden will fall by just 10 to 20 percentage points of GDP, still leaving it "unsustainably high" near 140pc next year.

Ms Merkel is relying on support from opposition Social Democrats to push the deal though the Bundestag, but this is politically dangerous and may threaten her grip on power if Germany has to put yet more money behind the summit pledges, as appears likely. Mr Schäffler said there is already talk of a "third rescue package" for Greece.

Jacques Cailloux from RBS said EU leaders are at last "getting the message" but the deal is not enough to halt the crisis at any level. Greece's debt burden will fall by just 10 to 20 percentage points of GDP, still leaving it "unsustainably high" near 140pc next year.

Cailloux looks one step ahead and reaches the same conclusion we derived last week: that the EFSF will need to get a place where more than a third of German GDP is tied to backstopping this particular CDO:

While the bail-out fund (EFSF) will be able to intervene pre-emptively to cap Italian and Spanish bond yields, it lacks the €2 trillion (£1.8 trillion) funding to be credible. "Nice tools but no firing power. A rolling crisis is still likely," Mr Cailloux said.

Translation: while FX markets have already opened in Australia, and the dollar has dropped to 78.1 against the JPY, and under 0.81 against the CHF, on ongoing uncertainty over the debt ceiling , it is once again the EUR whose role will be put into question this week once the market realizes that the "cohesive" European bailout may not be quite as cohesive as previously thought.

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rajat_bhatia's picture

Schadenfreude Bitchez!!!

TruthInSunshine's picture



Merkel knew this was coming, as does Sarkozy.

There have been many trial balloons floated by the EU as to who will bail out whom, when and how...

...ignoring the issue that absent massive printing of trillions in euros by the ECB, which is what must happen if the EU is to avoid sovereign defaults (Greece, Portugal and Ireland, together, are a fraction of the debt in jeopardy represented by Spain, let alone Italy...or....yep - France [I'd bet few know how awful France's own internal economic problems are]).

That's the problem. It's not that anyone necessarily wants to see anyone do badly in the EU, but saving those in trouble for the sake of holding the EU together is akin to placing a surcharge on Arizona, New Mexico and Washington State in order to bail California out.

Good luck to the governors of AZ, NM & WA if they were to do that.

A flood of EUR will either be produced in very short order or there will be defaults.

And Merkel is toast. She can't have her bratwurst (trying to represent Germans) and eat it to (imposing burdens on Germans so as to make PIIGS+UK+?France? bond holders whole - if even in devalued EUR).

Bill D. Cat's picture

In Canada they're called transfer payments .  Good for the transferee ..... not so good for the transferor . 

CassandraDoomsday's picture

Guess why there are so much fuddle muddle in the announcement  and no real figures - the only reason being so that Merkel can pretend that there is no more money needed. Germany is vacationing, so no trouble.

Merkel has not yet understood - otherwise she would have reacted differently (unless this kicking the can was only to gain time for Plan R (etreat). - how much money Germany is expected to provide. She wants to be re-elected in 2013.

I want to see what they think their announcement mean, and I guess the devil is in the detail.......

There will be a next crisis meeting when they find out that they understood their agreement differntly - four week max.




Popo's picture

Merkel understands. Zerohedge does not.

There will be no revolt. Germans are sheep, just like Americans. They will complain at home (and the occasional useless blog discussion) and they will allow themselves to be exploited for the sake of the Eurocracy.

The Germans have been serfs once, and they will be serfs again. They will pay for the Greeks to retire early and live in paradise. Meanwhile the German bankers will be saved, and the German people will work extra long hours to save their precious bankers and preserve their bonuses.

There will be no protests and no riots. Such things are not German by nature. Silently eating the bitter pill of bondage is what is culturally proscribed, and what we will see.

Zerohedge is dreaming with this whole "revolution" crap. Not in any Germany I've ever known...

Kayman's picture


 Not in any Germany I've ever known...

You must have studied German Mythology not German History.

Yes, Germany meekly accepted the Treaty of Versailles as just and reasonable. 

Get a fucking brain.

Popo's picture

Please point my tiny brain to the nearest German riot. I would like to attend.

Bringin It's picture

Tiny indeed.


BTW - great [biggoted] call on the Norway tragedy.  How do you show your face around here after that?

Popo's picture

Lol. Again: point me to the nearest German riot. Nice attempt to change the subject.

(why are you posting a link re: Oppenheimer? Do you just throw unrelated links like that out there whenever you can't back up your points?)

We were discussing today's Germans not having the stomach for revolution. That was your follow up??? Good lord...

Here's a link you may also enjoy:

JoeSexPack's picture

They don't riot much, too disorganized.


They have gone to war in the past, call it organized rioting.


If they put their minds to that, you will wish they stopped at rioting.


What does the news always say about mass-murderers? He was a quiet neighbor.


People have limits.

Bringin It's picture

Dream on Popo the bigot.  I'm not changing the subject.

"The Germans have been serfs once, and they will be serfs again."

The people of Stugart rebelled and hung the court banker Oppenheimer, when they could no longer bear the oppressive tax burden. 


CassandraDoomsday's picture

Stuttgart 21- peaceful protest

Merkel told them the decision would be made in the next election.

It was. They voted out the centre-right government (there since WW2).

Not that has yet stopped the project, to be fair.

However, my main issue is that there is no main-stream party that is against Merkels selling out Germany (the centre-left want to issue Euro Bonds).  All "alternatives" are at best fishy, or outright outside the German constitution.

As said, everybody is currently on holiday. Let's what happens when they are all back.








feelingspicy's picture

I would agree. I study economics in Berlin and if you go around asking other students about the bailouts they either have no opinion at all or they are suporting it. There are very few politicians like Frank Schäffler who have a clue about what is going on. I would guess that less then 5% of the parliament is against the bailouts. These whole matters are not playing a very great role in the decision making process when it comes to the vote. You see that when the Social Democrats and Green Party openly supporting the bailout while gaining in polls.

rajat_bhatia's picture

I really like white people, So can we have white whores here in the Third World please? I'll pay you in rice and wheat, We grow plenty of that here :D

traderjoe's picture

I have to say you are super-annoying. Short gold, covered gold, short gold, long silver, blah, blah, blah. Long India, short white people, blah, blah, blah. Yea, if one fiat goes, they all go. 

Sudden Debt's picture

Whats the matter? Did all the Thai love you longtime  girls run off with all those fat German tourists? :)


Popo's picture

No. Their new Prime Minister doubled the minimum wage and promised them free housing, iPads and cheap gasoline. Now they're all middle class... Didn't you hear?

Thaksinomics is back baby.

madbomber's picture

although racism and hate can be tempting, whether you're the victim of it, or the person  who can freely practice either without consequence,the end result is what?















madbomber's picture


also is history cyclical?   I have a lot of geniuses I know from Harvard who say so and I'm scared.


should I believe in it?   they're smart and the argument sounds right, so it must be.

hangemhigh's picture
TO: madbomber (Total Score:1)   Sun, 07/24/2011 - 19:45 | "also is history cyclical?   I have a lot of geniuses I know from Harvard who say so and I'm scared.should I believe in it?   they're smart and the argument sounds right, so it must be."   mb: basic rule of the road: these inbred, incestuous ivy league deals always work for them and never for you unless you, too, are willing to do a deal with the devil.  what's your soul worth, dawg???...........
HungrySeagull's picture



Edit Rajat, you edited out your first comment! "FUCK! Does this mean I have to cover my Gold Shorts?"

Popo's picture

The entire world is watching as Merkel tosses her people under the bus for the banking cartel. Simply unbelievable. Way to go Angie. You're a two bit slut,

Kayman's picture

Don't besmirch 2-bit German sluts.

misterc's picture

Sorry to curb your enthusiasm, but there will be no "revolt over here.
Peasants don't understand what's happening, the intellectuals are 100% brainwashed PRO eurocracry, members of parliament (not only Merkel's CDU, literally ALL members of parliament) are supporting her ways.

Our German answer to Ron Paul, Frank Schäffler, is a political outsider with little to no influence.

This zerohedge-headline = fail. 

Black Forest's picture

True. I do appreciate ZH tho.

Popo's picture

Exactly. +1.

Where is this fantasy of German revolt coming from?

The Germans are going to suck down banker cock just like the Americans. They will welcome their serfdom and believe, all the while that their politicians are averting "disaster".

Azannoth's picture

Germans have it too good ATM, if you walk the streets of a german city you will see people calmly walking the streets windowshopping and sipping latte at all the Restaurants,

there is no discontent and no Revolutionary attitude far and wide, until an severe Depression or War touches the Germans directly there will be no change and certainly no Revolution

And I bet most Germans quietly accept/support Merkel's give money away policy even if they speak otherwise, they are too clueless to see the ramifications

and there is this thing called willful ignorance that the  Germans are as guilty of as any1

Franken_Stein's picture


Hallo Kollege,


es kann nicht schaden ein wenig Silber und Gold im Haus zu haben.

Man kann ja mal mit nem Optionsschein short auf den Euro gehen, wenn es denn unbedingt sein muß.

Laß die Deppen einfach quasseln hier,, was juckt es die deutsche Eiche, wenn sich eine Sau an ihr reibt ?


misterc's picture

Na klar, bin im Goldigen drin (physisch). Keine Abgeltungssteuer & Hartz IV-sicher. Was will man mehr?
Zertifikate etc. überlasse ich anderen. Hab' mich mal mit CFDs verbrannt, nochmal lange ich nicht auf die Herdplatte :-)

Pectoralis's picture

ach, wird schon. wieviele leute fangen in den letzten wochen urplötzlich diskussionen an, was sie mit ihrem geld machen sollen? in meinem umfeld definitiv mehr als mir lieb sind. zum glück (für mich) rümpfen sie bei edelmetallen noch die nase, dann kann ich noch ne weile billig nachkaufen.

aber: wenn ihr mich fragt, tut sich langsam was beim volk.

Ghordius's picture

Oink, oink!

What does the German oak care about the PIIG rubbing it's skin at her bark?

Never heard before, from H. Hesse?

pesamystik's picture

I don't see why everyone thinks Germans and Europeans are any different than Americans. ZeroHedge likes to run these "OMG, look, the Germans are going to revolt," and other disaster headlines every few hours. Guess what, it never happens. The safest bet you can make is to take whatever disaster scenario ZeroHedge does to get a few page views and bet against it.

Sorry people, the world is getting smaller. Each "crisis" has been used for the status quo not only to be perpetuated, but to be entrenched even further. Everyone keeps talking about how the European debt crisis is not solved. Yeah, that's probably true. But the next crisis that comes up will be used as another excuse to give the Eurocrats even further powers. Does anyone actually think the Germans are going to rise up? That is laughable. The German population is mostly neutered and whimpered into a corner, where the thought of taking any stand against the European "future" means the bad old Germans are once again throwing a wrench in the European utopia just around the corner.

molecool's picture

I completely agree with where you are coming from - Germans have been shamed into making a long list of concessions in the past few decades and none of them have favored their own sovereignty or economic prosperity. I do however think that things have been pushed a bit too far at this point and that the German population has simply had it.

Die Eurokrats haben den Bogen überspannt.

Kayman's picture

Churchill said it best

the (German) is either at your feet or at your throat.

molecool's picture

Churchill was a victim of his own period - just like us today. You cannot compare the Germans of yesteryear to the Germans today - a completely different people.

Azannoth's picture

Mainly because of the social change that was forced on Germany past WWII, with all the 'immigrants' flooding in and a (multi)cultural revolution

Remember the Germans where always good people, very accepting and tolerant, just go to Namibia (the only former German African collony) and pretty much the only collony ever that still speaks of it's former collonial rulers positively

The Germans where anything but bloodthirsty racists, even at the time of Hitler

Missiondweller's picture

What is the average German's thoughts on the crisis? Do they not see the connection between their own economy and Greece? Does the media report what's going on?

As if it was not bad enough for Germany to lose its loved D-Mark, aren't they pissed they have to support all of Europe? Or do they still think they "owe it" to Europe to support the EU regardless of how bad the outcome?


A puzzled German-American

Ghordius's picture

German politics is very " consensus-seeking", this makes their policies seem slow. Merkel's deal must first be debated for a while.

Wait for the boomerang, so around November (no shit).

molecool's picture

From one German-American to another: Remember the expression: The Mühlen des Gesetzes mahlen langsam aber gründlich. (rougly translated: the wheels of government turn slowly but thoroughly). 

Germans are not one to make hasty decisions (at least these days) and they also do not like change, just like the Chinese. But once they arrive at a point at which an inconvenient decision that offers long term prosperity and averts their own demise seems their best option then they will not hesitate and do what it takes, EMU or Greece be damned. I can't say that about the United States unfortunately - decisions taken over here mostly seem to benefit Wall Street and China.

Landrew's picture

I think you are forgetting what that PIGS debt purchased! German goods and services is what that debt bought!To say Germans are without fault in allowing their banks along with French,British and American banks issue debt to people without the ability to pay is crap! This is a banking problem. I would imagine at the core is the IMF along with the World Bank at the center of this crap as well.

molecool's picture

I didn't say the Germans are without fault - but if you want to go there then let's refer to 'German banks' not the 'German people'. I for one make a clear differentiation over here in the U.S. as well as I don't blame my blue collar neighbor for the exploits of Goldman Sachs.