Merkel Facing German Revolt Over Greek Bailout

Tyler Durden's picture

A few days ago, when summarizing the key weakness of the second European bailout, we suggested that the fatal flaw in the entire package (which is predicated upon the expansion of the EFSF to about €1.5 trillion for full efficacy) are the "82 Million Soon To Be Very Angry Germans, Or How Euro Bailout #2 Could Cost Up To 56% Of German GDP." Specifically, we explained, "by not monetizing European debt on its books, the ECB has effectively left Germany holding the bag to the entire European bailout via the blank check SPV. The cost if things go wrong: a third of the country economic output, and the worst case scenario: a depression the likes of which Germany has not seen since the 1920-30s. Oh, and if France gets downgraded, Germany's pro rata share of funding the EFSF jumps to a mindboggling €1.385 trillion, or 56% of German GDP!" Sure enough, as the Telegraph's Ambrose Evans Pritchard confirms, the backlash has now officially begun.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing a storm of protest at home after yielding to EU calls for radical action to shore up Spain and Italy, raising doubts over her ability to implement the package.

Frank Schäffler, finance chair for the Free Democrats (FDP) in the ruling coalition, said the summit deal threatened "the castration of Germany's parliament" by shifting budget power to Europe.

Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank's chief, said the accord exposes Germany and other creditor states to "sizable risks" and greatly alters the EU's constitutional landscape.

Yes, that would be the head of the Bundesbank... The German Fed... The bank which, unlike the ECB, is actually putting the interests of the German people up front and center:

"The euro area has taken a big step toward a collectivisation of risks. This weakens the foundations of a monetary union where each is responsible for its own budget.

In the future, it is going to be even harder to uphold incentives for solid fiscal policies," he said. The choice of words undercuts claims by Ms Merkel, who has specifically denied that there is a "collectivisation of risks".

The outburst may complicate a forthcoming ruling by Germany's Constitutional Court on the legality of the bail-outs, though most legal experts expect the judges to tread carefully.

"Weidmann is like Thomas à Beckett," said David Marsh, author of a book on the Bundesbank. "He is no longer a Merkel man. He has gone over to the institution and is now sworn to defend the sanctity of German monetary conservatism."

It has gotten so bad in Germany that Merkel is now relying on the Social Democrats to endorse ger agenda. This is akin to Obama expecting the republicans to demand tax hikes for the uber wealthy.

Jacques Cailloux from RBS said EU leaders are at last "getting the message" but the deal is not enough to halt the crisis at any level. Greece's debt burden will fall by just 10 to 20 percentage points of GDP, still leaving it "unsustainably high" near 140pc next year.

Ms Merkel is relying on support from opposition Social Democrats to push the deal though the Bundestag, but this is politically dangerous and may threaten her grip on power if Germany has to put yet more money behind the summit pledges, as appears likely. Mr Schäffler said there is already talk of a "third rescue package" for Greece.

Jacques Cailloux from RBS said EU leaders are at last "getting the message" but the deal is not enough to halt the crisis at any level. Greece's debt burden will fall by just 10 to 20 percentage points of GDP, still leaving it "unsustainably high" near 140pc next year.

Cailloux looks one step ahead and reaches the same conclusion we derived last week: that the EFSF will need to get a place where more than a third of German GDP is tied to backstopping this particular CDO:

While the bail-out fund (EFSF) will be able to intervene pre-emptively to cap Italian and Spanish bond yields, it lacks the €2 trillion (£1.8 trillion) funding to be credible. "Nice tools but no firing power. A rolling crisis is still likely," Mr Cailloux said.

Translation: while FX markets have already opened in Australia, and the dollar has dropped to 78.1 against the JPY, and under 0.81 against the CHF, on ongoing uncertainty over the debt ceiling , it is once again the EUR whose role will be put into question this week once the market realizes that the "cohesive" European bailout may not be quite as cohesive as previously thought.

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malek's picture

Exactly the same as in the US:
The average German has no real clue what's going on, but believes that all problems will eventually be "fixed" by the government. Which means, and in accordance with Murphy's Law, that now reality will soon teach them that sometimes gov't cannot fix it.

Re-Discovery's picture

I also said at the time on this site the Merkel would be hanged in effigy.

Sounds like it may be in actuality.

A guy named Fred Merkle blew the 1908 World Series for the NY Giants on a play forever afterward to be known as 'Merkle's Boner.'

This Merkel just outdid him.


monopoly's picture

I did not think the German people would stand for this. A hard working productive populace in a sound, solid country that has been to hell and back are going to fund hairdresser retirement at 55, living in Athens. I don't think so.

You can fool and screw us clueless Americans, the sheeples who watch moronic TV, day in and day out, but Germans. Nope, not gonna happen.

HungrySeagull's picture


No one here is screwing you. Forget the Sheep.

Your Merkel is responsible for marrying Greece.

Fire her ass so that new boss does good work ja?

Pectoralis's picture

WTF? we germans "learned" a whole lot of your, how do you say, "way of life". americans are looking for their new "idol", germans seek their "superstar". where's the difference?

Lednbrass's picture

60 years of occupation turned the Germans into something even worse then Americans- sheep without the distrust of government that runs through US history.  I have a fair amount of family there and their outlook is incomprehensible to me.

The US followed the same playbook there they did in the American south- distort history, shove guilt down the throat of kids, denationalize the population, and import vast numbers of outside ethnic elements.

Germans wont revolt until its OK'd by the government and broadcast on "Deutschland sucht den Superstar". Given the fact they they are even more placid then American sheep, I dont see much happening- at least here there are millions of people loading up on weaponry and ammo, not gonna happen in Germany.

molecool's picture

"sheep without the distrust of government that runs through US history."

That's not the Germany I grew up in. I for one recall many clashes with the German police during political demonstrations in the late 80s, some of which I personally participated in. Germans are in general very critical of government and you see a lot of young people participate actively in the political process.

Lednbrass's picture

Well, you certainly have a broader base of experience then I do and I'll defer to that (I never lived there), but nowadays I only hear what seems to be a blind trust in "experts" and the EU political class from those I do know. Yeah, I know you cant base opinions only on personal experience, could be my relatives are all just idiots.

Atomizer's picture

But, but only yesterday we had such strong promises of containment and failout. LOL

Eireann go Brach's picture

Merkel who is really a half man half goat, will of course end up doing the right thing for Germany and make sure the bankers are well taken care of!

Silverhog's picture

Promising to give away something you do not own has it's draw backs. German voters will be even less enthusiastic as their own economy contracts toward 2012.

Sudden Debt's picture

IF this go wrong and IF that goes wrong.... Germany doomed...




Ghordius's picture

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts?

StychoKiller's picture

More like "Beware of Grifters bailing out Greeks!"

apberusdisvet's picture

Extend and pretend is just the method by which the banking cartel will ultimately through onerous legislation, have sovereign nations agree to selling off assets at 10% of value to make balance sheets whole.  The only problem is that world wide debt, which many estimate to be over a quadrillion, can never be paid.  No different that the $500 trillion of US debt.

john39's picture

would have thought that the german people got screwed enough by the NWO after world war I...  lets see if they wake up to the fact that the NWO wants them to foot the bill for holding their global order together for another few months... 

RobotTrader's picture

Man, are these people stupid or what?

What's the point in bucking City Hall?  These protesters will get quashed one way or another, life will resume as before, and the Alpha-Dog PigMen and Plutocrats will once again be in full control.

Absolutely nothing is going to change as long as the Fiat Ponzi Pyramid of Fractional Reserve Banking remains in intact.

Infinite Fiat Forever, "Wash, Rinse, Repeat" cycles will continue indefinitely.

The only chance of anything changing is if a young, super athletic, and charasmatic figure emerges to take over the Ron Paul agenda.  Otherwise, old, frail guys like Ron Paul will simply get smashed like an annoying bug because the proles do not want to be lectured to by their school principal.

Flore's picture

the euro is backed by gold... you guys still don't get it...

vamoose1's picture

Make that the Zeuro,    Churchill had it right,    they are either at your feet or at your throat.

franzpick's picture

I hope a bank run, a currency crisis, a credit collapse, a trade collapse or a commerce interruption is the event that signals the end of the fiat debt-credit bailout charade, rather than the anarchy, store shelf emptying and rioting that more usually signify the end of corrupt government and financial regimes.

Everyone here this Sunday will be bbq'ing, drinking and relaxing outside, but I'll be slipping inside at 315 pdt to watch the metals, the other openings, and the real action that 99% of the world won't know about until they see the banner headline, disaster news some day.

Glad to have TD and ZH, who I believe are running at least 5 minutes ahead of u.s. intelligence.

dcb's picture

bull shit, once the euro pack was announced the fiirst thing I stated was that we shall see how it comes down to the german people. Not you Me!!!!!!. Don't fucking high jack my intellectual property.  I was as far as I can tell on any thread on this site thee first to mentin voter backlash potential of the deal. This is bull crap, there may have been others before me, but I know ZH was well after me. Your article was well after my thread post!!!!! it was clear that that was the first thing that should come to mind. Search my threads!!!

spdrdr's picture

Awww, you poorly done-by poster.

I'm  certain that you will be able to enforce your IP in your opinions in  any juisdiction of your choice.  Why don't you consult a lawyer straight away - the damages claim could be astronomical.

snowball777's picture

What do you want, a commemorative plaque?

gwar5's picture

So don't stop Nostradamus, tell us what's next.....

gwar5's picture

So don't stop Nostradamus, tell us what's next.....

f16hoser's picture

Merkel, you sold-out your countrymen....

molecool's picture

Not sure what's with the constant German bashing - seems a big swath of the U.S. population still views Germany through a perspective formed by watching too many episodes of Hogan's Heroes.

Since I speak German fluenty (grew up in Europe) I regularly catch up on the FAZ and Spiegel to get a feel for the general sentiment over there. I can tell you that the comment boards are rife with angry sentiment paired with constructive questioning of the value of the European Monetary Union. The German population is as happy about this as (informed) U.S. citizens are about Bernanke's money printing scheme. And no - no talk about a Blitzkrieg or about taking over the Acropolis. Germans want to live in peace, harmony, and relative prosperity - like the average Joe here in the U.S. They don't want this crisis and are mostly regretting the EU clusterfuck they now find themselves in. There are calls to bring back the Deutsche Mark and to leave the European Union. Will most likley not happen unless there's a huge crisis that clearly shows that EMU membership has little remaining value. Nothing is going to happen overnight - Germans have become extremely pacifistic and cautions when it comes to sovereign decisions. The lessons of the early 20th century are still fresh in their memory. Although every nation wants to dominate economically there is very little to no interest in 'recapturing old territory' or taking over Europe. If you believe that then you have not been to Germany in the past few decades or have no idea what you are talking about. Germans were pretty happy with where they were and they had their hands more than full with integrating the DDR (i.e. East Germany). That cost them a fortune and it was a difficult transition - thus there is no appetite for gaining any further territory or to 'run Europe' in any form or fashion.

Germans are people like everyone else - they don't want to find themselves constantly paying for the rest of Europe and in particular bailing out fat cat banksters. Politically Merkel is comitting suicide right now and she probably knows it - maybe she's 'taking one for the EU team' - who knows.

I moved away in 1991 before all this EU bullshit started - from what I have observed I don't think that Germany is better off for it. They had a very strong economy before it and they still do for the sole reason that Germans are categorically opposed to shipping all their manufactiring jobs to China. Which is a lesson we here in the U.S. obviously had to learn the hard way. Instead of constantly criticizing Germany and pointing toward the 3rd Reich it may pay to observe the economic powerhouse Germany morphed itself into within less than half a century. Without having huge energy resources, without a huge military supporting its economic aspirations, only with hard work, sacrifice, and focus.

The decision that German citizens will make in the coming weeks, months, and years will greatly affect the rest of the world, including the United States. Although Merkel and heir political ilk are caught up in their own political game I feel that at least German 'leaders' have to some extent the benefit of their own population in mind. I truly cannot say that about the decisions taken by both political parties here in the U.S. - it seems at every single turn there is a right as well as a politically easy short term decision - and without fail it is the easy way that is constantly chosen. 

As I said earlier - Germans are people like everyone else. BUT they do consider the long term prosperity and future of their own country and their own children when making important monetary decisions. The lessons learned in the first half of the 20th century still haunt them and they are not about to blow up their own economy to either save Greece or the EMU. I expect there to be significant pushback in the short term - OR - a thorough housecleaning in the next election season.

Thanks for putting up with my little rant ;-)

Ghordius's picture

Gooooood rant, compliments.
A bit low on Nazis, Sturmtuppen and Panzer to captivate some, but good.

molecool's picture

Alright, per popular request:

It is tragically funny I must admit...

Ghordius's picture

Danke, now I feel better!
The new ECB uniforms rock!

Kayman's picture

Let's not forget the Marshall Plan. Britain whithered while Germany and Japan were rebuilt.

molecool's picture

That's a very generic statement - how do you substantiate that the Marshall plan was solely or in part responsible for Britain's lack of economic progress? I distinctly remember Britain's highly productive post war auto industry which was systematically dismantled in the past few decades - just like here in the U.S. - that's just one example.

Kayman's picture

After WWII Britain was heavily indebted to the U.S. for Lend/Lease.   Germany and Japan were extended generous funding.

I don't know what is wrong with that statement.



GCT's picture

Good comment mole.  I am American and lived in Augsburg for five years.  Once you got to know the German people they wanted the same life we do here in America.  I have several friends I still communnitcate with.  Most of them are frustrated but like the USA most have their heads in the sand.  Having lived all over thwe world I find most people want the same thing.  I was put off when I lived in Saudi Arabia but even alot of their populus once you got past their religion were alot like other people.  They were just always trying to convert me. 

When people's basic needs are being met and they have their TV most do not care.  Some of you Germen people ought to post what you all pay at the pump for a gallon or 4 liters of petrol.  Most here will be thanking their lucky stars.

molecool's picture

Augsburg = hübsche Mädchen :-)

Lednbrass's picture

Hogans Heroes and a never ending stream of movies and video games with Nazi bad guys sum up the total knowledge of 95% of the US population when it comes to Germany.

newworldorder's picture

RE molecool

Your comments are spot on. Thanks for posting a well reasoned and lucid explanation of what may be going on in Germany. Like you I believe that there are a lot less sheeple there than in our own coutry.

For  this bull in europe to be stopped, it will take the Germans, Nordic countries and the Brits to do it. If not, the bankers and City of London have won.

israhole's picture

Merkel is an Israel-first rat.

israhole's picture

Merkel is an Israel-first rat.

AldousHuxley's picture

Pirates and Emperors (from SchoolHouse Rock makers of How a Bill becomes a law)

AldousHuxley's picture
School House Rocks - Tyrannosaurus Debt (from SchoolHouse Rock makers of How a Bill becomes a law)

johny2's picture

another AEP euro doom article....yawn...I think he must have a short position on euro/gbp somewhere at 0.75

AldousHuxley's picture
School House Rock - Great American Melting Pot   (from SchoolHouse Rock makers of How a Bill becomes a law)


They don't have a song and dance for Great European Union Melting Pot. They each have their own king and customs

gwar5's picture

German Taxpayers: "We was robbed!"

Trichet: "Why should Germans be upset they were just put on the hook for the coming EU collapse? Each according to their ability...."

PIIGS: "Work harder, nazi bitchez, we got needs...."


AldousHuxley's picture

American TAxpayers: "Were we robbed? I don't know. I can't do math. Wait, shutup....Dancing with the stars is on"

Bernanke: "Why should Americans be upset they were just put on the hook for the coming American middle class collapse? Each according to their ability....or inheritance in offshore account..."


Banksters: "Work harder, private non-union bitchez, we got issues...."