The Message From Gold And Treasuries: "This Time Is Different"

Tyler Durden's picture

The last forty years have seen five distinct regimes in the relationship between gold prices and Treasury yields. It would appear that the current regime (from 2006 to Present) is 'different' indeed as the Keynesian end-point seems to have arrived.

The 5 'Correlation' Regimes of Gold and Treasury Yields...

Regime 1 - 1971-to-1980 - highly correlated with rising Treasury yields and rising Gold prices

Regime 2 - 1980-to-1986 - completely anti-correlated: very dynamic, as rates rose so Gold fell and as rates fell so Gold rose

Regime 3 - 1986-to-2002 - highly correlated with falling Treasury yields and falling gold prices

Regime 4 - 2002-to-2006 - highly correlated with rising Treasury yields and rising Gold prices

Regime 5 - 2006-to-Present - completely anti-correlated with falling Treasury yields (to record lows) and rising Gold prices (to record highs)...

 

Charts: Bloomberg