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MF Global Is Coming To Town
Some more perspective on today's odd market moves courtesy of Peter Tchir
MF Global Is Coming To Town
The Santa Claus rally may finally be here. In an ironic twist, as Corzine's firm is in bankruptcy and he is at personal risk of prosecution, we are rallying because for all intents and purposes, the ECB has allegedly told banks to load up on the MF Global trade. Banks are supposedly using ECB money to buy up short dated Italian and Spanish paper. Corzine must be bitter - his trade is the latest bailout.
I'm not sure it will work but am along for the ride for now. It is too thin and any ECB money to buy bonds and year end flows will be exaggerated.
And confirming that trading desks are doing everything in their power to get the Ponzi back on with a few shorts days left in the year, is the following institutional sales note, which is desperately trying to round up all clients into the LTRO-for-BTP ponzi bait and switch.
The carry trade is happening, there is no doubt about it. In SPGBs (45bps tighter t0) we estimate 15-20bn (incl 6bn auction) of buying from domestic mid sized banks and cajas THIS WEEK (500mm is usual 2way trading volume per day). We are seeing the same starting with italian mid tier banks in BTPs today (35bps tighter t0). Also Ireland seems to be very well bid up to 2016 maturities (75bps tighter on day). While Huw and Laurence anticipated this in their research piece on the LTRO from yesterday, we certainly did not expect it to be this intense and front loaded, this is the strongest buying we have seen all year, it feels a lot like QE.
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You better watch out, you better not cry
you better not pout your savings are gone
MF Global is coming to town
He knows when you're debasing.
He know if you've been a snake.
He knows if you've been lying to Congress
But they don't appear awake
if you don't think this ends badly
you're not following our bouncing balls?
As a wiser man once said, "It's funny because it's true". I'm sure Homer could have devised a better plan than this. What was his internet venture, HyperMegaGlobalCorp? We are all doomed.
but, but,...we have fringe blogging!
and several homerz!
and i am master of my miniVerse w/ my HypoTinyLocalProprietorship. L0L!!!
may your bunker of D00M reek of holiday cheer!
Corzine nose, he nose free basing.
He's on the take. A slug. A pull.
Insider...
ori
/this-that-and-the-4th-reich/
Corzine wouldn't have taken this gamble if he didn't have pretty good insider (read: squid) info that this bailout would eventually happen anyway, if not by the ECB, then by the Fed. He figured he'd wind up looking like a rockstar.
Corzine made some fatal strategic mistakes obviously, including:
-First and foremost, it doesn't matter how good the trade is if you can't afford to stay in it long enough to get the return.
-Assuming that ratings agencies wouldn't be critical of what looked like a hail mary attempt at yield by a company bleeding earnings.
He also made some tactical mistakes that could have at least avoided the bankruptcy and secured the sale to Interactive Brokers:
-They kept leverage high even when they knew the downgrade was coming. These guys were doing the typical window dressing every quarter to make their reporting package look good, why in the hell wouldn't they scale back their leverage to slow down the ratings downgrades or make their situation more appealing for sale?
-In the end, without the segregated account shortfall the deal with Interactive Brokers probably would have gone through. But these guys knew for a number of days before hand that they were probably going to have to sell the firm as a best case scenario. Why the hell wouldn't they have overloaded the customer segregated funds to ensure a smooth sale?
Interesting...who tipped off the ratings agencies and the regulators and then held their feet to the fire so that they....acted. A first. Maybe the same people whose trade he stole and then pigged out on...bull, bears...and hogs.
But maybe he is a rockstar (within his circle of mind-controlled vampires). MFG may have been bankrupted intentionally to avoid delivering PMs in December, and may thus have averted a COMEX default.
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/12/jim-willie-jp-morgan-crashed-m...
Possible. Or a sacrificial lamb. Maybe he owed them something big.
All aboard the crazy train.
All aboard!
Crazy indeed.
All I can say is 10 year T note. Something is coming and somebody knows soon.
I think you're right.
The truth about 9/11, and systemic fraud in our ponzi system are spreading through alternative media like zerohedge...
They know at some point we will reach a tipping point when controlling corporate media will not be enough.
NDAA was the zionists insurance policy for shit hitting the fan.
9-11? Check out this nonsense!
Judge FALSELY Rules Iran Connected To The Zionist False Flag Attack on 911 - YouTube
Ridiculous.
I guess we can keep passing blame for our false flag on whomever needs to get attacked next..? Maybe this has to do with Ahmadinejad telling the truth in his UN speech.. tell the truth about 9/11 and we'll get a team of douchebag lawyers together and blame it on you!
Rehypothecation of history books rewritten.
While I agree that there is an awareness inflection point coming, never underestimate the capacity of the average Joe to believe in the lie. Meaning the inflection point is much further away than we think possible. Insanity is always self confirming, self perpetuating and completely self propelling. It will go well beyond impossible before it finally corrects.
At this point, there's little benefit in questioning established narratives.
I guess the lie has reached it's tenure?
At this point, there is little point questioning the establishment natives.
ori
Hehe!
no comments I can find to explain this one....very odd?
Wow someone loving the shiit out of it.
10 yr yields and the S&P will converge. This one is setting up beautifully.....
Could you elaborate? You are saying that S&P is overpriced given the rush to 10yr, right? I honestly can't make heads or tails of this anymore (which has probably been the objective of TPTB all along).
I can't understand how oil can be down ~10% from its highs -- and about the same for treasury yields -- and yet these equities can somehow shrug it all off.
I'll be stunned if this doesn't turn out to be the "credit anticipates, equity confirms" scenario.
... and equities start the decline as I wrote the above...
Plot the yield vs the S&P. Note the fairly strong correlation, in the past. Note the huge divergence, today.
So yield should rise, S&P should fall, or some combination of both.
It's been disconnected the whole year. Yields are saying we should be at 700ish on the S&P. I'm amazed at this over 1,200 business
OK. So, it's not just me.
Thanks for the reality check.
Sometimes I wonder if I'm losing it.
That's what I thought you meant -- it's just been such a wild 6 months of "up is down" that I'm almost prepared to do the opposite of what seems logical. thanks though!
Karma is a mean ass bitch, Corzine.
Fuck hide your children...
"In an ironic twist, as Corzine's firm is in bankruptcy and he is at personal risk of prosecution, we are rallying because for all intents and purposes, the ECB has allegedly told banks to load up on the MF Global trade..."
When we do it, it is a "crime",
When they do it, it is "policy."
Irony? Is that what they're calling take-downs these days?
I'd bet that GS and JPM front-ran this thing both directions.
Bootleg a dvd, go to jail.
Steal billions, bonus time!
This is a rally? Really? Looks more like a dead cat bounce, but maybe that's just me.
We must Rally-Tally-Ho-Ho-Hoe! else bankers may have a humble holiday. And then none of that sweet sugar will trickle out of their pockets and into our open mouths as they walk over us . Sound cynical? :-)
I mean, you tell me. We had a bunch of "positive" economic reports yesterday, equities were allegedly "oversold", and in the last two days, this is the rally? It looks to me more like a little price consolidation before a vomit-inducing drop (for the bulls). But again, maybe that's just me.
Players were 'done' for the year last week. We chop from here baring some crisis
Aaaaaaaaand... it's gone... Dow in the red.
gravity's rainbow cat
DOW up +50 to 11,850, and theyre deeming it the 'Santa Claus rally, which looks to us just like QE3'?
Im saying, 'WTF'?
Exactly. It will be interesting to see how the afternoon plays out.
+50 DOW = rally
+1000 DOW = rally
+10 DOW = rally
-20 DOW = oversold
Carry on.....bitchez.
If it really came down to a choice: save a bank or save people in a burning office building, which would our 'leaders chose'?
I know what I chose, I chose The Matrix
Yes! To better study middle class consumers we need to anesthetize and apply a radiocollar so we can track them and study their behavior, take blood samples and biopsies and examine their genitals. That's what I learned in B-schoo!
the difference is rhesus monkeys learn after awhile.
Is he in Guantanamo bay?
This is the only time I agree with animal testing. Pfizer, Glaxo, Dow Chemical and Huntingdon Life Sicences your time will come!
Add about 30 lbs, a red suit, and some reindeer, and Jon Jon is Santa.
It looks like we're getting the 'package' deal. Sorry, but I'm all full up for now.
However, you're welcome to come by next year and try again. You never know how desperate I will be for a good butt buzzing by the spring of 2012.
"Why steal less when you can steal more."
So goes the Wall Street mantra....
...and the markets have already erased any gains they had off this.
YEa what 'rally', markets arent even up .5%.
Considering market's 40% overpriced, we're booming.....ahh 1999 was so undervalued
I'm not sure it will work...
Look at what happened to MFG on this trade. It sure did not work for them.
the trade was ok...the leverage was too much and the firm fell to pieces (with a bit of help from the ratings agencies & regulators) before it could pay off. For the first time in living memory the ratings agencies and the regulators acted....what prompted that? Enquiring minds want to be outraged even more.
Something will break today.
10 year down more than 3% now!!!!!! WTF?
Trading on insider info perhaps? Wish I was a congressman!
Crazy. And just after the 'great auction'. Somethins fucky.
We'll probably see the news break within the hour.
And Europe taking a dump into the close. No one wants to get caught holding over the weekend except for UST's.
Hmmm. In poker, I think they call this a "tell"
One would think that Fitch and S&P are choosing specific days to downgrade various entities.
The previous big S&P downgrade was followed by the collective central bank liquidity injection.
Yesterday's Fitch downgrades are followed by ECB cheap money lending to the banks and quad-witching.
I'm guessing this pattern will fall under the coincidence category.
Who cares. I already got my free Mr coffee from Chase.
So that's where all the PCBs went.
All the little whos down in whoville..
All that (OWS) noise noise noise noise!
You're 'along for the ride for now' Peter? Really? Well why dont tell us exactly what it is you bought and at what price? I think youre talkin shit.
More on the Re-hypothication trade. As more and more people realize there is no collateral out there... people will begin calling in their securities. I hate to say this, but you can expect the other of all squeezes next year when people call in their EQUITIES and EVERYTHING BECOMES IMPOSSIBLE TO BORROW. Go look at the Volkswagen trade for a while back. It can happen here...and it will end the same way.
No Thanks. I'll stay short.
say it ain't so
Meanwhile equities move lower and Italy 10-year yield now green. LOL. These bastards want their cake and eat it too....broken markets ALSO means it won't necesarrily go UP when you want it to. Works both ways. LTRO = LAUGH THIS RALLY OFF
10 year Treasury off 3% just this morning....20 years ago a 1% daily move in the UST would have sent markets into total panic and chaos, but now its just normal 'price stability' from the FED doing Gods work....what a clusterfuk.
Wow, MFG customers aren't gonna get their money back...
Prediction time: S&P downgrades all of Euroland late this evening then Sunday night......Bernake, ok I'll print.
Christmas saved.......for now. Maybe.
What about the "Happy New Year"?????????
Goldman Says It Closes Its Short Germany Bet We are closing our short DAX (in USD) recommendation with potential gains of c 3%. Following last week’s ECB meeting, we initiated a short DAX position in USD (short DAX, short EUR). Our view was that with the ECB signaling a relatively high threshold for a more aggressive sovereign purchase strategy, part of the hope for the market rally into last Friday’s eurozone summit would need to be reversed. Indeed, European equities and the EUR have both fallen since then.
WSJ
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/12/16/goldman-says-it-closes-its-sh...
Looking at how the market is trading in afterhours their position must have been quite small :))
Happy new year will have to wait for QE4. AKA save the Prez.
Hide the gold. Hide the good silverware. Keep your daughter out of sight. Put your wallet in your inside coat pocket. Whatever you do, don't sign anything. You could be the indicted scapegoat for Jon Corzine.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
Well-played Dragh-queen, well-played.
The PD flip, Euro-trash Wolfsburg edition.
Now markets barely clinging to any green at all, Treasury down....WHAT was that 'along for the ride' trade you made Peter?
1.84 on the 10 year. Hold on boys and girls Christmas maybe late.
Ironic twist?? Really? How about grand larceny and fraud. Life in the slammer with bubba sounds more a propos.
Ponzi on!
Buy, buy, buy!
Debt to solve a debt crisis!
More booze and coke to solve the addiction problem!
Global ponzinomic powers activate! Debt Brother from Planet Zero, engage Pardon powers!
"I had no idea MF Global was coming to town."
"I had no intention for it to come to town."
and, "I swear I did not give it authority to come to town."
Corzine must be bitter - his trade is the latest bailout.
It was his trade until the margin calls from JP Morgan ruined it. Never trust a NY banker Mr Corzine, especially when they know you're leveraged (just ask AIG or the Hunt brothers)
I have requested by several email to TD Ameritrade to deliver certain stock certificates owned in my cash account. They can't deliver. Each message is a different excuse.