This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Mohamed El-Erian: US Economic Conditions Are "Terrifying", Recession Chances Are 50%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Something tells us that Mohamed El-Erian is aware of the bulls' last bastion of "growth" and "decoupling"- the dip in Initial Claims below 400K. Even so, his appearance on Bloomberg TV was full of sound and fury, and some quite memorable soundbites, starting with this one: "Let me tell ou what I find most terrifying: we’re having this discussion about a risk of recession at a time when unemployment is already too high, at a time when a quarter of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, at a time when the fiscal deficit is 9%, a time when interest rates are at zero. These are all conditions coming out of a recession, not going into a recession." The Newport Beach dweller is spot on: the situation is getting worse by the day, and the only option left is to do more of what has already failed so many times, and which only makes non-dilutable transitory monetary equivalents that much more attractive (with the mandatory liquidation which may bring them to triple digits first of course).

Transcript from Bloomberg TV

On the U.S. going into a double-dip recession:

"I am worried. We've had two bits of unfavorable news in the last 24 hours. One you reported this morning, which is that we have less economic momentum than we thought we had - 2% growth as opposed to 2.5%.  The second is that yesterday we had no policy momentum. We're worried about the concept of stall speed, that 2% growth may not be enough for an economy that still has to de-lever. We put the chance of a recession at one-third to one half, which is really high given initial conditions."

On policy makers in Washington, D.C.:

"[Policy makers] are totally off the track. It's not a failure to agree on medium-term fiscal reforms, it's also a failure to give air cover for other things that need to be done -- in housing, in the labor markets, in credit. We have no policy momentum. Let me tell you what I find most terrifying: we’re having this discussion about a risk of recession at a time when unemployment is already too high, at a time when a quarter of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, at a time when the fiscal deficit is 9%, a time when interest rates are at zero."

On what factors could be driving a double-dip recession: 

"This is a fragile economy. It doesn't mean we don't have strength, we certainly do - the corporate sectors are as strong as we have ever seen it in terms of balance sheets. We have incredible entrepreneurial spirit. But we're facing all these structural headwinds, and the big concern is the possibility of us being tipped over by Europe. Things in Europe, as you mentioned a few minutes ago, are getting worse, not better."

On solutions in the U.S.:

"Unlike Europe, the U.S. doesn't face an engineering problem - it faces a political problem. The solution is not an engineering nightmare. You can actually put it on paper and get it done. But it's been a political nightmare. What we'd like to see is the political class to come together and agree on the steps that need to be taken."

"As you have heard us say over and over again, Bill Gross has been saying it, I've been saying it, other PIMCO colleagues have been saying it -- it's structural in nature. We need medium term structural reforms to increase the growth potential and job creation potential of this economy. We can do it. This is different from Europe. Europe has both a political problem and an engineering problem. Our problems are small relative to Europe, but if we wait they will become larger."

On the S&P's statement that US rating is unaffected by the supercommittee:

"That is what S&P is telling us. We have to remember that S&P still has us on negative outlook which means unless things improve over the next three years, there could well be another downgrade. The ratings agencies in general are in a very tough position. We talked about at PIMCO's investment committee yesterday. They've been beaten up a lot, both for what they have done and for mistakes that disrupted the markets for a while. It is hard to be a ratings agency today. You have to read these comments in that context. They are under fire."

On Joseph Stiglitz's comments that austerity measures make the crisis worse:

"I think [Stiglitz] is right, in the sense that the muddled middle, where Europe has been, is no longer sustainable. The crisis that started in the outer periphery, Greece, not only has shifted to the inner periphery and the outer core, Spain and Italy, but it has also impacted France which is the inner core."

"Europe needs to make a choice if it wants to save the euro, and it should save the euro. There's only two choices: one is a full fiscal union, a political decision with a very large bill. The other [choice] is a smaller, less-than-perfect euro zone, which has political implications but has a smaller bill. That is a political decision that Germany must take. The quicker it takes it, the more likely it will be able to save the euro."

On the options that could save Europe:

"There are no easy options. That's why the process is paralyzed. Wherever the policy makers look, they see tremendous costs and tremendous disruptions. The tendency has been to do too little, too late. There is no costless way forward at this point, and that is a problem that all of us have to internalize and understand, that there are no easy solutions."

On Europe being the single biggest threat to the U.S. economy:

"Left to our own, we would muddle along with the risk of stall speed, but one thing we cannot cope with is the major shock from one of the largest economic areas of the world, Europe. Already we're seeing investors stepped back from markets because of the anxiety. The more that happens, the more dysfunctional these markets become."

On whether the Fed should implement QE3:

"I smiled when one of your guests said earlier that the Fed has been the only adult in Washington. That is true. It has been the only institution willing to take steps. As you pointed out, because the Fed has taken these steps, it has taken pressure off of the rest of Washington to do its part…Other agencies haven't stepped up to the plate. It is time for other agencies to step up. The effectiveness of the Fed is declining, unfortunately, day in and day out."

On what the Fed should do:

"Chairman Bernanke has made it clear and he's repeating it three times, saying that when they look at these unconventional policies, they recognize the benefits but there are costs and risks. What we call collateral damage, unintended consequences."

"[Bernanke] recognizes that that equation, that balance, is shifting from potential benefits to costs and risks. Looking forward, if they were to do QE3, they may get some benefits, but I suspect there would also be quite a bit of collateral damage and distortions put into the system that would take us years to overcome."

"[Collateral damage would be] pressure on the currency. What you will see is pressure on the functioning of markets, you will see people stepping back, because more and more non-commercial forces will be determining market outcomes. We will also see questions about the credibility of the Fed and the political autonomy of the Fed."

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:40 | 1904018 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

My kids used to have a beach toy called a "sand digger".  I had to be real careful saying that around my Lebanese in-laws.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:33 | 1903966 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Kind of like Bar-B-Que, but more sophisticated.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:08 | 1903837 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Of course it's Europe's fault. We'll gloss over the $15 trillion of US debt

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:08 | 1903838 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Yeah, it's terrifying to be a bazillionaire grifter in this eCONoME. :roll:

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:09 | 1903840 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Hey Mohamed,  that is one big fucking bubble that you are sitting on top of.  Perhaps, you best shut the fuck up.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 22:06 | 1905088 nmewn
nmewn's picture

No doubt.

"[Collateral damage would be] pressure on the currency. What you will see is pressure on the functioning of markets, you will see people stepping back, because more and more non-commercial forces will be determining market outcomes."

I've got a wolf skin jacket around here somewhere.

"We will also see questions about the credibility of the Fed and the political autonomy of the Fed."

ROTFLMAO!!!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:09 | 1903842 kito
kito's picture

i heard mohamed el aryan has a muslim mother and white supremacist father

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:13 | 1903859 knukles
knukles's picture

That's terrifying!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:33 | 1903969 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

That means a 50% chance of repression.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 18:10 | 1904425 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

100% chance of a wife beating.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 18:15 | 1904446 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

that's why cops have such a hard time buying guns. they are always beating their wives.........

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:14 | 1903864 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

50%?

Aren't you being overly optimistic?

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:17 | 1903865 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

The last person I'd take any market advice from is Mohamed El-Erian.  Bare in mind his advice is about what is best for Pimco and or his book. 

I'd love for someone to run a blog on the televised calls that these analyst's make and how inaccurate they turn out to be. I think you would be amazed at how often they do 180's.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:52 | 1904073 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

At least with him you know he's talking his book straight-ahead. And since we kinda know what his book is, it's useful info even if it isn't the same as yours.  With Goldman, you can never be sure...

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:15 | 1903867 Life of Illusion
Life of Illusion's picture

 

Was that a IMF slip.

"The Fund"  hes says ,,no the FED

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:18 | 1903877 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Thers a 50% chance a young hot chick will find my Oblate spheroid body shape attractive.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:16 | 1903878 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Recession chances are 50%'?  

So...he's saying we'll come up from depression into recession, 50% chance of that? I dont get it.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:18 | 1903884 kito
kito's picture

no sheepie, trust me, you get it. what you dont get is him, which goes for most of us here......

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 17:24 | 1904223 DosZap
DosZap's picture

SheepDog-One

Listen again at the first, he said 30-50%..........................

He is in Lala land.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:18 | 1903882 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

 

Lower GDP growth, Euro melting down, ... Treasury Direct: $35 billion 5yr at 0-7/8% – Fed Talks More Easing

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:19 | 1903892 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

All we need now is Fareed Zakaria to cohost Squawk Box and that will be the final sign! <sarcoff>

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:25 | 1903894 falak pema
falak pema's picture

El-ERian is no Guderian. He is rubber faced, pseudo capitalist elite, from business school whose learnt the basics of capitalist finance, like the amateur alchemist who learnt how to make a time bomb over the Internet by reading the manuals of the smart ass. 

For a mouse like him, a classical cook book thinker who could not lose when he made an investment, as going from 100 million to 110 million is not risk taking, it's inevitable, now turns turn-coat and says capitalism is up the spout, is the writing on the wall. When the mice turn and start to roar, you know that something stinks in the store. Its time for the captain to leave the ship. Gross spiel ist mein armageddon, aaaaaach thuuuuung.

And they are nOT socialists, they are text book capitalists who don't want to jump out of the window like in 1929. Can you blame them?

On Europe being the single biggest threat to the U.S. economy:

That's like pot calling the kettle black.


Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:20 | 1903895 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

She clearly says 'Pimp-co', LOL.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:22 | 1903904 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Groupwnd is still crashing!

 

Groupon Shares Plunge, Trading Close to IPO

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-22/groupon-shares-plunge-for-secon...

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:52 | 1904077 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Nobody saw this coming, no one.

 

OT: Getting a itchy trigger finger to cover LNKD today for a 20 bagger!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 18:14 | 1904438 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

just before turkey day, pimpco comes out and starts trashing the economy. what's in it for them?   these pumpers and dumpers are about as bad as that commi  zhid cramer........

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 20:41 | 1904829 knukles
knukles's picture

QE 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,etc

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 17:00 | 1904113 TheAkashicRecord
TheAkashicRecord's picture

Adding value over the long run, one business at a time

Cupcake baker nearly ruined by Groupon deal;  Bakery ended up filling orders for 102,000 cupcakes 


http://tiny.cc/rgixh

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:23 | 1903912 jomama
jomama's picture

so fucking sick of hearing about this 'chance of a recession'.

just how stupid do they think people are?  oh, that's right, most of them are.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:25 | 1903927 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Always complaining about something. 

Forget your prozac today?

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:44 | 1904031 jomama
jomama's picture

bitch, you need to get smacked.

why don't you do everyone a favor and go play in traffic?

 

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:47 | 1904052 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

That stung, really really stung. 

Work on your follow through.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:48 | 1904054 jomama
jomama's picture

get off my nuts you lying, racist sack of shit.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:52 | 1904070 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection

You should talk to a licensed practioner about your problem. They have medicine that can help.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 18:36 | 1904507 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Says the guy who projects his insecurities out on everyone else.

You are the one who started this little exchange.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:46 | 1904049 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Not stupid. Far from it. Just liars.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:24 | 1903920 onedb1
onedb1's picture

Short USD long EUR !! Those dollars are worthless

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:25 | 1903921 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Talk about someone in a box talking about fixing the a problem within the confines of the box.  Meanwhile the box is sitting in the middle of a house fire.

 

What a tool.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:25 | 1903923 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

THE ONLY RATIONAL RESPONSE TO THE WORLD: THE MARKET SHOULD SHORT EVERYTHING TO ZERO.  IT IS ZERO HEDGE TIME.  

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 18:44 | 1904523 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

The original owners and creators of Zero Hedge had a different meaning in mind when they thought up the name of this site. The current owners, who are different than the original creators, I believe think the name means no hedge. So I think you are correct.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 19:23 | 1904631 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Tell us more

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 20:52 | 1904790 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdiK7TxeF6o

I know the truth. This website has changed hands. We know what's next. Homogenize the message.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 20:23 | 1904776 anyways
anyways's picture

A zerohedge is a delta 1 hedge. No greeks involved, what is proven to be a good idea. Just a plain riskoff.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:25 | 1903929 unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

it is ineresting that the halflife of these increasingly desperate measures continue to diminish . Earlier in the month that storied would have booted the DOW up a couple of hundred points, but today it barely moved it positive before the pullback. But then again there is still 1/2 an hour to trade plenty of time 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:27 | 1903937 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w--Yu7bP-cA&feature=related

Keep it up America, your prison is between your ears.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:29 | 1903942 vegas
vegas's picture

Dear M,

Am sick of you turd-wads in the media acting so shocked that the economy sucks. Hey, if you would do your job and actually investigate and then report, you would have been on this 3 years ago when your boy was "immaculated".

But no, you've been so coopted by ideaology, it's more important to toe the liberal MSM line that you now have absolutely no fucking credibility whatsoever.

Economy sucks? Take a look in the mirror and ask yourself how responsible you are for telling us chocolate production is up in the 5 year plan, when you know full well there ain't no fucking chocolate. You are a big part of the problem.

 

htrtrp://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:31 | 1903944 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I see absolutely no reason to be long anything except PMs anymore.  All technical, fundamental, and macro reasons for being long have been completely annihilated.  

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 22:54 | 1905305 fuu
fuu's picture

Welcome to the party. Drinks are over there.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:30 | 1903949 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

Recession? You mean things are improving?

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:33 | 1903955 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

I think Europe should muddle through.

Let market participants in the dark about your intentions, let them guess, that's best.

 

Never reveal all you cards, that makes one vulnerable.

 

So we should carry on with tiptoeing, wavering and indecisiveness.

That's probably the best way to go.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:46 | 1903956 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

On Saving Europe: "There is no costless way forward at this point, and that is a problem that all of us have to internalize and understand, that there are no easy solutions"

Yes there is actually Mohammed.

It's called the free market, you may not have heard of it at PIMCO

The free market solution is called bankruptcy. That's easy compared to this 2 year long clown show. And it costs taxpayers nothing. It may cost you Bond holders alot but hey, you took the risk mate, better suck it up.

Now try to say this after me Mohammed: "the Free Market solution is the best solution... always... we should try it."

Now don't forget the free market option again Mohammed you naughty absent-minded boy

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:32 | 1903959 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

Recessions are triggered by a measurement in dollars.  Therefore, "recessions" can be averted with dollar printing and easy credit.   It's the WRONG KPI

Secondly, I have one question about "the dip in Initial Claims below 400K" being interpreted as one more green shoot.

Question:  If we had 100% unemployment what would our "Initial Unemployment Claims" number be?  Bingo. ZERO.

So as the Initial Claims approaches zero...it's not necessarily a positive indicator.   It must be taken with the true unemployment, discouraged job seeker, etc. numbers to have any relevance.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:40 | 1904016 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

News anchors are nothing but pimped up talking whores these days, saying anything to anyone, as long as they are being paid for it.

Corporate talking robots, nothing more.

What a farce.

 

Any minute spent on watching this clown show is an utter waste of time.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:42 | 1904024 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

El-Erian is preparing to flip all of that MBS paper Pimpco just bought to Ol' Bubbles Shalom for a nice profit.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:46 | 1904045 jse111
jse111's picture

Does Gross address Mohamed as Mohamed when they pontificate to each other?

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 20:46 | 1904842 knukles
knukles's picture

Massah and Bro

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 21:25 | 1904949 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

No, he just goes right to the blow job!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:48 | 1904057 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I need to catch up on those " Sanford & Son ", re-runs.  Elizabeth, this is the BIG ONE...

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 16:52 | 1904071 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

US is already in a recession. There are more work age people NOT working than are working. Q3 debt growth $447 Billion.....Q3 GDP growth was $168 Billion. It doesn't get any more obvious.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 17:14 | 1904126 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

U-3 is 9% which means using this metric that 91% of people are working

U-6 is 16% which means using this metric that 84% of people are working. 

Where are your numbers coming from?

If you're talking about the UE rate for youthful blacks than you would be correct which stands at 51%. That sounds bad but they are better off than being in Zimbabwe which has a 97% unemployment rate. Not better than than Kenya (GO OBAMA!!) which has a 40% UE rate and where our country is heading should Obama be elected a second term.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 17:24 | 1904221 knukles
knukles's picture

Add in all the welfare recipients and say (due to productivity) 75% of public sector employees and it adds up.
That's a big reason why it's broken.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 17:00 | 1904109 paint it red ca...
paint it red call it hell's picture

nothin like being threatened by mohamid (once again) with contagion unless sovereign european nations submit to the appointed at the EU

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 17:28 | 1904245 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

 

Here's an idea, how about installing a "technocratic" government, like the IMF did in Italy and Greece. It's inconceivable how much the interests of the banking industry -the true members of the cartel- managed to create such a powerful country and simply steer it down the abyss. A string of political puppets were proved to be less than inept, while those who weren't ended up dead.

I know it's not what one wants to admit but it's reality nonetheless. America has become a social experiment, created by foreign interests in order to serve foreign interests. It might have been the breeding place for a great nation that rules and shapes the world, but in the end one can clearly see that the same citizens are being used and abused as insignificant units that feed the machine with their hard-earned money, prisoned in a corporate induced reality that perpetuates their blissful ignorance, while fighting its wars and dying for the all too important oil-powered world hegemony.

Many wish for a president such as Ron Paul, but we all know that this would never happen. Those who wished to become presidents, not because they wanted to advanced their own agendas, but because they had the much needed altruistic feeling and the necessary fortitude of character, that would enable them to serve their own people and truly lead them, were the ones who were put down by those who had and still have the true power all along.

No one with integrity will ever lead this country unless its own people decide that they’ve had enough of living in an artificial existence, with factory-made politicians serving everyone's interests but their own people, and an oligarchy who sacrifices its middle class for shameless profit.

I don’t understand why people are surprised with the current state. It has been a mathematical procedure, that lead to this and while many saw it coming, they simply weren’t enough, in order to yield any power.

I’m watching US channels from abroad and I get angry by the same inane tripe being regurgitated by the 24-hour news-cycle, and I don’t even live there. And if by some unfortunate chance I stumble upon Fox News or CNBC, I feel the need to either spend at least half an hour with my boxing bag, or drink. Even Bloomberg that’s being on for for almost 24 hours, is oftentimes disturbingly and exuberantly over-jubilant.

So what gives? How long are you people willing to live with this kind of conditions? You have been stripped of your rights, you have been constantly brainwashed and you have essentially being programmed to serve the very same machine-manufactured society you live in like braindead cogs.

Since I was a kid I have been watching American shows, playing American sports, eating American foods. The scale of westernization post cold-war impact was immense and in many ways influential, but I’m 26 now and after reading America’s history from inception until today, it just makes me sad because I see things for how they truly are and I can’t help but wonder how the fuck did you people let this happen to your nation?   

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 17:49 | 1904340 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Dude...Readers Digest version please. Nobody wants to read 1,000-word comments.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 17:38 | 1904272 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Need I say more? A refresher course for "Negro Viernes"     http://www.federalreserve.gov/   Biege Book/ Red Book.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 17:45 | 1904321 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

by the way, did anybody else happen to notice we passed 100% gross debt to GDP ratio today?

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 17:50 | 1904342 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Rubber Lips forgot to mention something

He forgot the "Buying Panic"

Yep, TLT and MUB closed at the high of the day.

Whenever there is trouble, everyone dumps and drops everything tangible and flees into the safety of U.S. Treasuries and Municipal Bonds.

In other words, paper rules!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 17:54 | 1904358 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

your retarted Robo, so is everyone buying US Treasuries and Muni Bonds. So with inflation at 13% right now, tell me how that 1% UST BIll is doing for you.

Fucking retards

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 18:16 | 1904447 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

God damnit! Get off the fucking computer and come upstairs and finish your chores!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 18:19 | 1904459 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

robo, you are many things but inconsistent is not one of them.........

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 19:00 | 1904571 kito
kito's picture

its hard to be inconsisent when you are the expert in hindsight calls.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 18:07 | 1904412 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

"...discussion about a risk of recession"

On who's yacht did this discussion take place? And what is this 'double dip' crap. This has been One Great Steaming Pile of a Dip since 2008.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 18:08 | 1904415 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

i thought everyone with the name mohamed was a terrorist.?   talk about scarce as hen's teeth on the street......

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 19:20 | 1904622 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Don't ya love it when strawmen and hens teeth can be rammed into the same comment, got us some mixed metaphors and alliterated idioms. nice job, golf clap..

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 21:32 | 1904969 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

"This" mohamed is not a terrorist threat as he has no ties to the CIA!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 18:26 | 1904470 txsilverbug
txsilverbug's picture

Just pull the fucking trigger on the economy already.  Fucking bozo's don't know squat shit, same shit they been preaching for years now and just goes to show no one knows shit.

 

Truth is, the economy is screwed and they are saying and doing whatever they have to say or do to keep this bullshit economy going.  They say 3rd quarter growth was up 2% but actually negative.  Just goes to show they failed math and failed at life.

 

Go fuck yourself PIMCO.  Your part of the problem.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 18:28 | 1904477 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

As I recall, the quote from Macbeth goes "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing..." which I believe describes El Erian's remarks aptly. I particlarly enjoyed the part about the great corporate balance sheets. Sure, they look great if you just look at the asset side and neglect to peruse the liabilities, which include the notes payable which balance all that  wonderful cash the MSM is so excited about.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 18:35 | 1904504 FutureShock
FutureShock's picture

Why aren't there any reporters getting drunk with these guys and recording what they really think. He should run for prez. He always gives you lots of information without anything you can really use.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 18:54 | 1904506 ricocyb13
ricocyb13's picture

Alessio Rastani 2 New Videos: GREAT!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=go-43kcJvVM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-pX8S2fPDU

 

Goldman Sachs adds Italy and Greece to its portfolio:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpNlnpn0Jvk

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 18:49 | 1904538 electricgorilla
electricgorilla's picture

El Erian is the King of obvious. This is the guy who helps manage one of the worlds largest bond portfolios. Give me a break.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 19:15 | 1904611 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

The risks of a recession are either 0% or 100%.  

 

While El-Erian is wagering that it's a toss-up, I am going to say 100%.  There is nothing that is going to improve the growth scenario at this point.  A Federal government with the transmission in neutral, and the Federal Reserve with their foot on the gas, will end badly.  

 

The recession is already here.  We just do not want to admit it.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 19:35 | 1904658 eaglefalcon
eaglefalcon's picture

What kind of weed is he smoking?  50% chance for recession?  i'm 100% sure we are in the midst of depression.  Just substract inflation from GDP

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 19:37 | 1904663 TheJokingJollyRoger
TheJokingJollyRoger's picture

Economic situation terrifying?  Well duh........

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 19:51 | 1904667 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

It's surprising how many people here on ZH think Bernanke, Obama, Krugman, etc are stupid morons not knowing anything about economic recovery, thinking money printing is the answer to every problem.

These people aren't stupid. They're just following the grand plan, slowly destroying the US dollar. Money printing is the best way to do that. It's why every problem is answered with money printing, and of course it all goes to the government and banks. It's the grand plan.

Are they diluting the purchasing power of the dollar, slowly draining away your wealth and my wealth and everybody's wealth? Yes they are. But it's the grand plan. Slowly steal everybody's wealth via money printing and resulting dollar debasement.

The grand plan is loot America dry. Completely dry, stealing everybody's wealth, putting every American in poverty.

Why do people have such a difficult time seeing that?

This MFG thing is merely a test run, seeing how sheeple respond to a billion dollars being outright stolen from them. And so far the response is as expected, no real response, just a lot of whining and bitching on blogs, maybe a few lawsuits.

Wow, some response. Really frightens those Wall Street and DC criminals.

Get ready for the real thing, your 401ks and pension funds being stolen right before your eyes.

I can guess what the response will be then. Just more whining and bitching on blogs, maybe a few lawsuits.

Sheeple never learn.  When you keep your wealth in places where this criminal government and criminal Wall Street can get their hands on it, they WILL steal it sooner or later.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 21:21 | 1904940 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Beautifully said Cranky!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 23:00 | 1905339 fuu
fuu's picture

"This MFG thing is merely a test run, seeing how sheeple respond to a billion dollars being outright stolen from them. And so far the response is as expected, no real response, just a lot of whining and bitching on blogs, maybe a few lawsuits."

 

They got away with TARP. MFG is just stealing the tip off the next table over.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 19:51 | 1904696 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

I hear troubled minds blathering after the first 2 minutes.  It devolves into the religion of a political solution?  Hopium and print and screw everyone?  

 The ridiculous bias,  This guy makes huge money when the fed prints. Goes right in his customer accounts.  (his pockets)

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 19:52 | 1904699 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

"...the bulls' last bastion of "growth" and "decoupling"- the dip in Initial Claims below 400K.

 

 

Who lays people off the week before Thanksgiving week?  I mean not only do layoffs dip in mid November to through Xmas because of the shopping season, but what kind of A hole waits till a week or two before Thanksgiving to fire folks?  Look at historic unemployment claims data and you will see they ALWAYS drop in November unless that happens to be right when a collapse is in progress and employer can't help it. 

I am not a huge believer in most seasonal adjustments especially when they are intentionally used to distort data so it can be spun, but if you have a steady 400k per week getting laid off and suddenly it dips to 390k not only is that almost of no consequence other than some feel good psychological warm fuzzy but it has to be taken in context of the weeks for which they posted.  Come January look out, all the pent up demand to terminate people that was deferred during the Holidays will be let go en masse.  That too is typical but it is our first shot at seeing how 2012 will really go. 

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 20:10 | 1904735 TheAkashicRecord
TheAkashicRecord's picture

Why is the Pentagon spending tens of millions of U.S. tax dollars to whitewash the image of Central Asian dictatorships?

http://tiny.cc/ip6mo

 

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 21:01 | 1904887 DeltaDawn
DeltaDawn's picture

Guess we have to dig a little deeper these days for allies.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 20:30 | 1904796 rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

Recession bitchez!

 

libertarian86.blogspot.com

 

http://libertarian86.blogspot.com/2011/11/jeffries-to-go-bankrupt.html

 

We will have a recession cuz Jeffries could be in some big trouble. Looks like they could be acquired or default according to a fox article.   

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 20:31 | 1904799 Coldfire
Coldfire's picture

This dude was waaay better as the frontman for Queen. What a sell out.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 20:35 | 1904806 itstippy
itstippy's picture

50% chance of recession?!?  Could this delay implementing the Fed's exit plan?

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 20:36 | 1904809 tomreagan
tomreagan's picture

Good old PTRAX...Whenever they are on the airwaves,the punditocracy always says, "PIMCO=beating 90% of their peers in the last 5 (10) years". Awesome, too bad they have not even beat half the past 3.Why? They are always positioned for bull markets (2008 and 2011 they stink!). Why? They are cheerleaders. New Normal my rear.

Eurodollar swapsshow $ funding crisis, guess what? Australian Dollar Swaps are now breaking...uh-oh

Yankee paper (AAA Govt guaranteed stuff) getting SMOKED. Liquidation style, see EIB. This used to be central bank gold.

Exportfinans loses government guarantee just like that? What? 7 notch downgrade, 10pt loss...which money market fund will break the buck next? Who else will lose their guarantee?

Fed has news stress tests? So the banks will be adding risk to their balance sheet before March 2012. OKEEE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDH9Jq5AWkQ

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 20:44 | 1904838 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

It will come down to jerking off the dog to feed the cat one more time before shooting the dog for the stew pot, cooking fire compliments of frn's and stock certificates. Then, crawl out from the tarp over your Lazyboy beside the van - down by the river, take a shit, and go find some canned goods to loot. Life will be good, after the shit hits the ground. Then, join the tribe for an aristocratic hunting party. Kinda like fox hunting in England used to be - minus the horses, dogs, and red jackets. Howl like a hound, boys, it's off to the races! Take them down, and tear them up with yer teeth. Survival of the fittest. Part One.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 20:45 | 1904840 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

What...????

BLS (Bureau of Lying Scum) rivised the growth down by .5 %.....

I'm shocked.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 21:06 | 1904905 Hohum
Hohum's picture

BEA actually--Dept of Commerce.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 20:54 | 1904864 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Sounds like buddy is worried about not getting Lobster evey night.

Ps....

The USA has NO engineering problems...????

Okkee dokee........

Stay away from the kool-aid.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 21:18 | 1904935 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Who gives a shit what this two-bit establishment "bond pimp" says about anything.  "50% chance of a recession"!?!?!?!?!?  What a joke!   I automatically tune out anyone who quotes government statistics.  It's all bullshit and we all know it.  The freakin emperor has zero clothes. 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 21:12 | 1904921 Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

I just want to Bang that gook chick on Bloomberg!  Damn, she's f'n hot!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 21:15 | 1904928 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

"50% chance of recession"

That's like standing in a hurricane and calling for 50% chance of percepitation

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 21:36 | 1904977 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Am I the only one that feels like 'eating Chinese' right now?  And doing it again an hour later? And an hour after that? "Betty Liu's getting (ate) out tonight..."

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 21:41 | 1904988 DeltaDawn
DeltaDawn's picture

1. He should be using the d-word instead of the r-word since we have shot all our bullets.
2. If the U.S. economy is fixable, M.E.E. should put his solutions to paper like Ron Paul has. We should demand all our reps put their solutions in writing.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 22:44 | 1905255 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

El ERIAN is just part of the problem as well- trying to scare up a bond bull.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!