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Money, Money, Everywhere

Tyler Durden's picture





 

FX Concepts' John Taylor is out with today's slam dunk de-noisification of all that is irrelevant with the following summary of what is really going on as the world's central banks embark on the latest and hopefully final attempt to reliquify everything. All we can add to Taylor's analysis, especially in light of today's incremental easing in ECB collateral requirements, is that the biggest beneficiary by far of what in a few months will be another multi-trillion balance sheet expansion, is and continues to be hard, non-dilutable, i.e., real, money. Because as fiat currency loses all relevance in a world in which it is printed on a daily basis by the central banks, whether or not we end up with a Weimar scenario, the cash thrown out by the even profitable companies will be increasingly more meaningless. Yet the take home message is that banks will never, ever stop diluting existing money. They simply can't as the past few months have so vividly demonstrated.

From John Taylor of FX Concepts

Money, Money, Everywhere

My desk is littered with analysts’ charts showing the explosion of central bank assets over the past four years.  As interest rates have dropped to just above the infamous “zero bound” while the global banking system and the developed economies have threatened to collapse, the central banks have responded with new forms of monetary stimulus to keep the financial system alive and to push their economies toward growth.  The acronyms might be different for the methods used by the US Fed, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Swiss National Bank, but these various techniques have all served to expand the high-powered money available to their banking systems by at least a factor of three.  These five countries all have ratios of central bank assets to GDP over 18%, and in Switzerland it is over 40%, a far cry from the old days.  Add to this the extension of swap lines between the Fed and other central banks, and liquidity is everywhere. Those of us in the financial world are surrounded by a sea of money, but just like the ditty of my youth when sailing on the ocean, ‘water, water, everywhere, but not a drop to drink,’ there seems to be nothing economically constructive to do with this money.  If the idea was to keep the banking system alive, it is obvious that this strategy will work.  Clearly, giving money to banks at no cost or, at the worst, extremely low cost means that they don’t have to pay anything for their liabilities – a perfect match for all of their bad-loan assets, which give them no revenue either.  This allows the banks to avoid: calling their bad loans, causing companies to go bankrupt or real estate to go on the auction block, and admitting economic reality.  To us, this seems to be exactly the strategy followed by the Bank of Japan for years, the one that was so harshly criticized by Bernanke ten years ago.

Europe and the US now have their own zombie banks – dead but they keep on walking, not lending money or clearing out the bad debts.  If this massive infusion of liquidity was meant to help ‘main street,’ the operating economy, or the average worker, it has been a complete failure in each country, except Switzerland where this was not its goal.

This gigantic flood of extremely inexpensive high-powered money does have a major impact, not in the real economy, but in the liquid investment markets.  Free money sets a very low hurdle for a short-term investment and as long as the transaction has decent liquidity, why not do the trade.  As a result, almost every equity, commodity, and credit market is moving higher.  High beta currencies are moving higher as well, as risk is clearly on the front foot.  This positive mood began at the start of October, a bit more than a week after Bernanke announced the start of ‘Operation Twist,’ a subtle way to improve the profits of the banks and increase the risk of the Fed without expanding its balance sheet. Global equity markets began to climb. Bernanke then announced an expansion and cheapening of the US swap lines with Europe, which currently have $103 billion outstanding, adding massively to Europe and Japan’s liquidity. Mario Draghi’s move into the ECB Presidency on November 1 was the next harbinger of a new wave of liquidity, as he dropped the refinancing rate a few days later and then announced the LTRO on December 8, expanding the ECB balance sheet by over 4% of the GDP in one day later in the month.  By the end of December things were clearly moving up in all the traded markets, and Bernanke put the cherry on the top of the sundae not once, but several times in the last few weeks. First, he announced that US rates would be extremely low into late 2014, then, a bit later, he emphasized the likelihood of QE3 if there were any economic pause, and then Tuesday he told the US Senate that he was not happy with the way the economy was growing – more hopes for QE3.  As the markets always respond to monetary stimulus when the trend is already positive, prices will be forced even higher.  Although we can’t be positive about the real economy, this expanding liquidity will keep us happy until a political accident intervenes.   Europe offers some candidates: Greece in March, followed by France in April.   

 


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Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:37 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

This just in....Nanex has officially just spotted the "Crocodile Algo."  That is all.

http://www.nanex.net/aqck/2827.html

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment spankthebernank
spankthebernank's picture

Can someone give me an end date for this ponzi?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:40 | Link to Comment 5880
5880's picture

when u get long....

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

The expriment began in 1971 but I believe formally ended in 1999.

Since that point, credit has been feeding the fallacy.  Going forward, no choice but QEn

 

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:50 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Sounds like it is time to take out a $200,000 home equity loan?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:53 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Or buy the Dow.

I can't fucking believe it is at 13k and everyone is running around saying to buy it....

....oh wait, yes I can.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:58 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

I had another use of proceeds in mind.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

I think watching fur traders beat baby harp seals to death would be more pleasing than watching these markets and central bankers do there unnatural acts.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:58 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

Of-course you should buy the Dow, I mean it is not like there is going to mass defaults in Europe or Israel will have to use nukes in order to wipe out the Iranian Nuclear centers. OOOPs wait a minute. Forget it, buy Gold/guns/scotch/porn...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:03 | Link to Comment The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Ben's rethinking original Bell Huey UH-1 approach and going instead with an MI-26, the world's largest helicopter.

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

[Cue Ride of the Valkyries]

[Ben is dressed up as Rambo, he is throwing pallets of dollars into crowds of people]

Better yet, everyone remember the Joker's Parade in Tim Burton's original Batman?  The Joker is throwing money everywhere and then he gases everyone. 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:19 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

+1

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment spankthebernank
spankthebernank's picture

K  Just bought 10 aapl through my Etrade account.

 

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:49 | Link to Comment Whiner
Whiner's picture

1/3/13

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment kraschenbern
kraschenbern's picture

Probably not in our lifetime.  There is the possibility that Keynesians and monetary theorists can find theoretical justification, and limited emprical confirmation, for endless quantitative easing.  All at a carefully controlled rate of course.  If you have the time, try reading through the IMF working paper at the link below:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11264.pdf

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:43 | Link to Comment Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Speaking of zombie banks, does anyone have any color on the latest rumor of italian bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena being in trouble? Have they ran out of Milky Way wrappers?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Palladium, bitchez.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:43 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Someone finally got the message: Do not pump excess liquidity into commodities, including PM's, of any kind. All excess funds are to be deployed into the following ETFs: SPY, IWM, QQQ, XLF, and on slow days DIA. Thank you for your cooperation, B.B.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Ummm....maybe....but if you truly understand the "Crocodile Algo" then you know that all the buying that you think you see is actually selling.  And if this was an actual market, it would be arbitraging to death all of the late to the party PMs that are misallocating capital to the long side of the game.

You know, unless of course Greece will be fixed "within hours" again, before it is not "fixed" again.

Hedge accordingly...whatever that means.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I hope you are right, and eventually you will be. I'm just not sure we are there yet.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:43 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Shitty news sites everywhere are saying Greece agreed to the plan.  Did I miss something?  Because I thought that they were kicking the can down the road.  So either the media is more stupid than I thought, or they are flat out lying.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Just hang in there a little bit longer. These fools have been expecting "good news" any day now for so many weeks that they are a little stunned. What you are seeing is the equivalant of the deer in the headlights look. Next comes realization and then terror.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:16 | Link to Comment piceridu
piceridu's picture

I'll take Flat Out Lying for a thousand Hendrix

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 16:04 | Link to Comment Jena
Jena's picture

And now for Double Jeopardy, where the scores can really change!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:43 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

buy buy buy, Cramer is right.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:44 | Link to Comment non_anon
non_anon's picture

it sure ain't landing in my pocket, but I will never go on the guv dole, never!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:46 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Xerox sales unexpectedly rise...

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment Whiner
Whiner's picture

Mother AU will not bow before a sea of fiat currencies. Putting my fiat dollars into physical assets that have intrinsic, durable value with only a small pile of fiat dollars in mattress for bank holiday.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

Japan has yet to experience the "end game" - so the same shall be for the U.S. for the next 20 years of so of a no growth period....at least.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 16:32 | Link to Comment aerojet
aerojet's picture

Very true!  But the situation has now gone global, so whereas Japan had a relief valve, this time--no valve!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment morning_glory
morning_glory's picture

Anyone short equities in this environment is an idiot.

I am an idiot :(

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Bears are the Punishment of God on those fuckers! just be careful and patient and calculate you maximum loss on your positions... dont worry about those shillers, i think they read ZH more than we do.

Take a look at those graphix, they would soothe you

"Take Off is optional, Landing is a must"

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33046.html

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Taylor is brilliant.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:59 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

He's a smart guy, but John Taylor of FX concepts has made some bad calls on timing ... In late 2010, he called for the euro to sink to not far from parity with the dollar toward the end of 2011, whereas the euro was able to keep to the 1.30 neighbourhood vs USD.

Though Taylor was certainly right about Europe being a hugely increasing mess, as he himself admits, he really underestimated - along with many or most people - how much longer the central bankers can keep the whole game going.

Jim Sinclair, tho focused on gold, was more correct here ... and Sinclair says even now, the situation of the dollar with the US states in so much financial trouble, is really a bigger mess for 2012 than the euro, that California blowing up is a much bigger deal than Greece blowing up.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Bernanke Talks His Book (Lying)

"...he ignored ample evidence in 2012 that the economy had long since passed the Emergency Stage will be Ben’s undoing. He's so pregnant with his monetary policy that he can’t see (or just chooses to ignore) that the fire is out, the emergency is over, and his monetary policy should be in the process of normalization. That failure, will cost everyone, big time..."

http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:49 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

The stock market is not the economy.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:53 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Watch it, you'll end up on the FBI's terrorist list saying things like that.  As a matter of fact, I think I may be required to report you.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:37 | Link to Comment ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Its my economy.  Liquidity talks, bullshit walks.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

The Rime of The Corrupt Central Banker and Fed...good story when it will it be written?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:53 | Link to Comment Zola
Zola's picture

ZH CONTEST !  Which number is the number of the QE which when announced will make the market go DOWN ( 3,4,5 ?) take your pics.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:54 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I counted last night, it's 9, but I am still going to refer to it as QE X for theatrical purposes.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:34 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

3rd time is always the charm.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:54 | Link to Comment _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

water, water, everywhere, but not a drop to drink’

Nice analogy.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:59 | Link to Comment toadold
toadold's picture

 "there seems to be nothing economically constructive to do with this money."

If you can't do anything economically constructive with it, can it actually be called money? 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:24 | Link to Comment Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

People confuse the terms "money" and "currency" frequently, and to their own peril.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

If you can't do anything economically constructive with it, can it actually be called money?

*********

Good point-if that money doesn't and it wont-find a way to get into our hands so we can spend it-it is a non inflationary event-but that's not to say it doesn't dilute the real money you get from a paycheck-

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:01 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"Yet the take home message is that banks will never, ever stop diluting existing money."

That is the quote of the day.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

When was the last time the s&P dropped by 1% or more?  What are the precedents for this long a run in the past?  Crazy.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:19 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

1. Enforce extended ZIRP to crush the returns on fixed-income

2. Print fiat currency and dilute its value and lie to the masses about the subsequent inflation

3. Jack the markets up higher and higher until retail goes "all in" so the 1% can dump their own shares onto the masses

4. Markets crash again as the massive wealth transfer process marches on

Pretty goddam vicious process...

100% FUBAR.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Tom.the.Bomb
Tom.the.Bomb's picture

Somewhere over the rainbow Way up high, There's a land that I heard of Once in a lullaby. Somewhere over the rainbow Skies are blue, And the dreams that you dare to dream Really do come true. Someday I'll wish upon a star And wake up where the clouds are far Behind me. Where troubles melt like lemon drops Away above the chimney tops That's where you'll find me. Somewhere over the rainbow Bluebirds fly. Birds fly over the rainbow. Why then, oh why can't I? If happy little bluebirds fly Beyond the rainbow Why, oh why can't I?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment dojufitz
dojufitz's picture

The World is awash with money.....and at the same time there is No money....to pay off debts......bummer......

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:22 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

The largest counterfeiting and money laundering racket in history, the Federal Reserve.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

What the Hell happened to Gold today?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:45 | Link to Comment beachdude
beachdude's picture

"What the Hell happened to Gold today?"

Gold became an even better buying opportunity.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment paulbain
paulbain's picture

Tyler Durden,

 

Uhm, can you not provide a hyperlink or URL to John Taylor's article on the web? I saw no such link above. Thanks.

 

-- Paul D. Bain

paulbain@pobox.com

 

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:32 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'The past few months demonstrate theyll just keep printing forever?'

Utter nonsense, the music will stop suddenly 1 morning soon when no one is expecting it, while everyones totaly lulled into complacency and believing no harm can come to them, totaly convinced no matter what theyll surely be rescued. Perfect setup for the Huge slaughter coming, and no one can see it.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 16:23 | Link to Comment GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

the 'music' will only stop when the banks have offloaded onto the public the lion's share of the toxic assets they hold. 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 16:43 | Link to Comment SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

And loaded up on gold, silver and other items of real value.  

And after the crash they will cherry pick everything for pennies on the dollar.

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:42 | Link to Comment GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

"If the idea was to keep the banking system alive, it is obvious that this strategy will work. Clearly, giving money to banks at no cost or, at the worst, extremely low cost means that they don’t have to pay anything for their liabilities – a perfect match for all of their bad-loan assets, which give them no revenue either. This allows the banks to avoid: calling their bad loans, causing companies to go bankrupt or real estate to go on the auction block, and admitting economic reality. "

And who would buy the cow when they can get their milk for free?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 22:00 | Link to Comment nappyhead
nappyhead's picture

It's not really cows milk, we are really drinking goats milk. But it's better not to drink it at all. Look at those who did they all say the same thing. It's really sweet.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:43 | Link to Comment beachdude
beachdude's picture

TD's title re money reminded me of this Toby Keith song, a personal favorite of mine...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uq4lBgPjMHA

..."I'm living my life under my terms
I'm calling the shots, as far as I can see
I don't owe nobody nothing
I don't answer to a soul
might not work for you
but it works for me."

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 16:08 | Link to Comment jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

...but not a penny to where it's needed (physical economy).

Glass-Steagall

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 16:16 | Link to Comment Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

Central Banks grabbing all the gold they can get...your article expalins it. I may have to expand from only oil to the Barbaric metal (s) also.

 

What do you recommend?

silver, gold, platinum?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment SomethingWicked
SomethingWicked's picture

Chickens.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment wtlf555
wtlf555's picture

While I generally agree with the data on ZH I disagree on the expected hyperinflation and currency destruction. Yes I know the US debt levels are unsustainable and yes the Fed the primary dealers and Wall Street and K Street contol money and the economy and markets are rigged. And yes I know that all Fiat monetary systems eventually end. However that does not mean that hyperinflation and currency destruction will occur in any near future. Hyper-inflation has happened rarely in history and currency destruction even less. I am a student of economic history and I think we are a long way (10-20 years) from either. The reason I believe this is that I track the currency per person in the US and the demand deposits per person in the US. THe life of a fiat system always follws the same cycle => demand for debt => demand for capital preservation => demand for cash => demand for goods.  It's at the demand for goods that hyperinflation occurs and currencies fail. It appears to me that we are in the demand for capital preservation mode. When we get to the end I would assume that I would see currency per cap skyrocket along with demand deposits per cap shrinking to zero as the demand for cash increases. My data shows me no pattern in either. And even then there has to be a shift in demand for cash to demand for goods. While things can happen fast historically the demand for debt last 20-30 years, the demand for capital preservation 10-20, the demand for cash 1-10 and the demand for goods almost overnight. This closely follows the Kondrateiff wave cycle.

So I have the following questions for the ZH hyperinflationists - why should I expect hyperinflation in the next few years?

 * when it hasn't even occurred in Japan which has higher debt and does not have our money printing capabilites (oil in USD)

* when currency per capita and demand deposits per capita are stable? I don't care about M3 or how much debt the Fed holds - my two measures would go up/down for at least a year or two before they went parabolic. Look at Greece - their way farther into currency armagedon and their demand deposits per capita while falling dramatically over the past year have not dropped close to zero and currency per cap has not gone parabolic

And two more questions

1) why have Reinhart and Rogoff been off on their 80% debt/gdp thesis. Why was this the point of no return in the past but a pittance now? The hyperinflationist need to explain what's different now instead of just saying we're way past 80% so even more likely now. Maybe something is structurally different in the global economy.     

2) has money finally become a valueless means of barter due to technology. The holy grail for Austrian monetarists has been a medium, free of governmental influence and supply/demand imbalances. Maybe now central banks can buy all the debt they want and stuff primary dealers with all the monetary base they want but it doesn't matter as long as people have a reliable means of barter (even if it is worthless - not backed)? Currency typically failed in the past because the mechanics broke down and runs on hard currency broke the reserve system. But if technology allows people to barter and live without having to actuall hold currency maybe we're in a new era where govts can't effect supply/demand (actual currency), and the measure has no value other than a store of value for barter

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 21:49 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

So I have the following questions for the ZH hyperinflationists - why should I expect hyperinflation in the next few years?

 * when it hasn't even occurred in Japan which has higher debt and does not have our money printing capabilites

***********

I'm not a hyper-inflationist-but I'll comment anyway-

I mostly agree with you-especially about dollar demand for debt and as long as that delema remains in place-there is little chance of a run from the dollar-in fact it will strengthen the dollar--

Japan however is IMO-nearing the end of their rope-the economic conditions have changed drastically since their 20 years of QE-ing-

When Japan was in deflation the rest of the world was gorging on credit money and buying everything Japan could sell-so they had low unemployment and a positive trade balance-their bond market was strong because the boomer population were savers-now those boomers will be drawing down savings (cashing in bonds)-their trade volumes are decreasing and unemployment will rise-weakening their bond structure and forcing the government/central bank to buy down yields-they have 230% debt to GDP that can only continue to rise-at some point their bonds will be downgraded and the Yen could be in serious trouble-in fact-i think that they could well have a hyper-inflation even though the rest of the world will try and prevent it by printing their own currencies and buying Yen-but once it starts i doubt they have any tools to prevent it-save weighting to gold and if they are forced to-they will and if that happens-all currencies will be forced to match the gold weighting or die-

Mon, 02/13/2012 - 01:32 | Link to Comment q5251355
q5251355's picture

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