Moody's: "The Probability Of Multiple Defaults By Euro Area Countries Is No Longer Negligible"

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Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:27 | 1920497 Mugatu
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Watch them spin, spin, spin!


This will be another week of fake rumor after fake rumor.  Reality is on hold until Wednesday.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:49 | 1920569 CORNGUY
CORNGUY's picture

Volatility is the new reality.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:27 | 1920499 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

The worse it gets, the better it looks.

Plain and simple.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:27 | 1920501 HD
HD's picture

Okay, maybe it's too early for me - or maybe I'm just a moron, but doesn't Moody's contradict itself here? What did I miss?

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:27 | 1920503 Snakeeyes
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The EFSF signing gave temporary relief. But the underlying probem, too much government spending and too much debt, has not been addressed. Sure, there has been a little austerity, but not nearly enough. Eventually, there will have to be massive haircuts to the peripherals to avoid default and German/French/UK banks will take a massive hit ... and get bailed out by taxpayers. And then it begins over again. Moral: no politician will agree to cutting spending in any country (including the US). Monday’s Euro Update: Slight Improvement in Bond Yields


Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:28 | 1920504 DocinPA
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I'm really impressed with Germans for hanging tough.  The denial of the obvious by our financial overlords and the morons in the press is really starting to piss me off, the obvious being "balance your budgets".

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 10:35 | 1920745 HD
HD's picture

No one pushes around an angry post menopausal German woman. NO ONE.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:28 | 1920505 Ivanovich
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This absurd launch in ES is a QE3 pre-emptive trade based on the article about how the PDs see 600B in mortgage purchases coming shortly from the Fed.  Of course, they don't mention that oil will be back around $110 when that happens.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:49 | 1920564 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The Fed needs to buy that garbage, tell the bankers they can no longer use it as a non mark to market asset, and then tell everyone involved they don't have to pay interest on the loans involved.  The housing bubble will continue to deflate no matter what.  But we can stop the human carnage by helping the people as evenly as the banks.  The idea that the Tax payer is already buying these loans via inflation and getting zero benefit from it is absurd.  I am getting sick of this horseshit.  The system will NEVER recover if they insist on making the public buy their houses twice now instead of once!

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 10:10 | 1920648 Boston
Boston's picture

Oil back to $110?


WTIC is now $100, already.  If QE3 launches soon, oil "will be back around" $130-$140.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:30 | 1920507 hugovanderbubble
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Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:31 | 1920508 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Moody's = noise.

More buzzing fridge sounds via Moody's. How anyone finds them credible is beyond me.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:34 | 1920518 flanders
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Okily-dokily. Whew, good thing I always keep a Bible with me..

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:47 | 1920559 Ponzi Unit
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Fully committed to the phys and holding. What a nerve-wracking ride! The Morgue is always ready to jolt the market again, but at some point we will witness a definitive move and the bastards will be forced to retreat: earliest would be December? The train of abuses has made me deeply resentful, yet determined.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:54 | 1920577 Quinvarius
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It is kind of weird.  But looking at the charts after the begining of coming big breakout when gold hit 1900, none of the Morgues other raids even looks like it was tradable.  Relatively, the 10 year chart looks like the calmest uptrend ever.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:48 | 1920563 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Exactly why I do not trade this market anymore. Charts are good for foundations, but when you have nothing but demented children and inmates ruling the planet how do you trade that kind of a market? Yes, the last couple of weeks have been tough with my miners moving lower and lower and gold down, but I hardly touched my mouse. And now, before the market is even open, there we go.

At least the one sector that is up that makes perfect sense, yup, you all got it. Lets get gold over $1,720.00 on a strong close and we may be on to something here.

And can someone explain to me that after years of taking bribes, lying, and being deceitful for their own pockets why the rating agencies suddenly got religion?

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:49 | 1920565 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

What is not negligible: The probability of this not mattering until it does.

Santa Claus has arrived, and as usual, he's brought with him the same annoying stock-exchange stuffer.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 09:57 | 1920599 Everybodys All ...
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In other words they would downgrade them now but they are afraid of the political pushback.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 10:11 | 1920651 Boston
Boston's picture

Meanwhile the Greek gov. 10-year is now yielding 30.9% ..... up a mere 103bps from Friday.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 10:57 | 1920827 secretargentman
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Begging the question right from the start...  The probability of multiple defaults was never negligible.


What was negligible was Moody's due diligence.


The correct statement would be: "Moody's no longer regards the probability of multiple defaults as negligible."

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 11:08 | 1920861 ded_moroz
ded_moroz's picture

The last paragraph - it means putting 27 EU members on a negative watchlist.

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 11:12 | 1920874 chaartist
chaartist's picture

EU: They will print like hell, they dont know how to handle it and dont have the powers to handle it at the moment. One politician in a small country can change months of negotiations...there is no chance that the small countries will be for more integration because no one has the money to bribe chaos begins. Hope we will have good times here at ZH :)

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 13:23 | 1921390 strongband
strongband's picture

where were these guys back in 05/06 with all their downgrades and comment

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