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Moody's Releases Statement On Potential Outomes In US AAA Review

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just out from Moody's

Potential Outcomes in Review of US Aaa Rating

Summary

The prolonged debt ceiling deliberations have increased the possibility of a rating change or outlook change, or both for the United States government's Aaa government bond rating. Nevertheless, it remains our expectation that the government will continue with timely debt service, and that our review for downgrade will more likely than not conclude with a confirmation of the Aaa rating, albeit with a shift to a negative outlook. However, if there were a default on a Treasury debt obligation, a downgrade would likely follow, even if the default were swiftly cured and investors suffered no permanent losses.

Announced July 13, our review was undertaken because of the small-but-rising probability that the Treasury would default on its market debt sometime after August 2 if the ceiling was not raised. The review will conclude when the debt limit is extended for more than a short period of time. Even a short-lived debt default, however, will likely prompt a downgrade. For Moody's, a debt default occurs only when an interest or principal payment on a Treasury security is missed, and does not arise when payment are delayed on other obligations such as federal employee salaries, Social Security, or vender bills.

If the debt limit is not raised before August 2, we believe that the Treasury would give priority to debt service payments and could thus postpone a potential debt default for a number of days. Revenues would be more than adequate for some period of time to meet those payments, although other outlays would be severely reduced as a result.

As to the longer-term outlook on the rating, the limited magnitude of current deficit reduction proposals suggest that even a timely increase in the debt ceiling will lead to the assignment of a negative outlook on the rating. The direction of the US government's debt rating will largely be determined over time by our projections of its deficits and stock of debt, but the focus of our current review for downgrade is the more narrow and more immediate "event risk" associated with a possible debt-ceiling-induced default and the precedent that such a default would carry. We will make an assessment of the government's efforts to stabilize the future path of its debt ratios when the review is concluded.

This issuer comment details how upcoming events may impact our review of and outlook on the US sovereign rating and discusses potential outcomes.

GLOBAL SOVEREIGN

The Review for Downgrade

On July 13 Moody's placed the Aaa US government bond rating on review for possible downgrade because of the small but rising probability that the government would default on its debt sometime after August 2 if the debt limit is not raised. August 2, the date after which the Treasury estimates it will not be able to meet all its obligations, is approaching. Whether this occurs exactly on August 2 or on another date is not certain. Each day that passes without resolution of this issue raises the probability of default, but it is still our expectation that the government will continue with timely debt service on Treasury securities.

The review for downgrade will be concluded when one of two events occurs: (1) a default on debt obligations, resulting in a downgrade, or (2) an increase in the debt limit sufficient to last more than a short period of time, in which case the Aaa rating will likely be confirmed. The review was prompted by the possibility of default in the short term and is not directly related to the arguably more significant long-term fiscal and debt outlook. Therefore, Moody's will conclude the review when the short-term issue is resolved but also assess the government's efforts to stabilize the future path of its debt ratios. The rating may remain under review if there's only a short-term extension of the debt ceiling.

Event 1: The Government Defaults on Debt Obligations What would Moody's consider a default? We do not consider delayed payments for obligations other than debt service to be a default. The government will have to cut its spending by more than 40% after August 2 without an increase in the debt limit, since that is the proportion of spending that has been financed by debt issuance. To do so, it may delay payments for different kinds of obligations, such as the salaries of government employees, Social Security and Medicare payments, payments to companies that have contracts with the government, or debt service.

Governments from time to time make late payments to suppliers, for example, but Moody's does not consider that they have defaulted. Only if such payment arrears become substantial and appear to indicate a solvency problem would they have rating implications. In the present US case, the rise in payment arrears would simply be a substitute for the rise in public debt that would have normally occurred in the absence of the temporary constraint caused by the debt limit and, therefore, have no immediate credit implications. A missed interest or principal payment on a Treasury security, on the other hand, would constitute a default. If this were to occur, which we still consider unlikely, the rating would be downgraded. One scenario would be a downgrade by one notch to Aa1 immediately, with the rating remaining on review for possible further downgrade.

A one-notch downgrade prior to the expected resolution of the default would reflect our view that, even if interest payments were resumed quickly, a return to Aaa in the near future would be unlikely.

After August 2, the first interest payment date on Treasury bonds and notes is August 15, when $31 billion in interest is due. This is the first date that a default on bonds could occur. Based on the well-established monthly pattern of government revenue inflows and the scheduled interest payments on bonds and notes in coming months, the ratio of interest payments to incoming revenues can be calculated. August is one of the months when this ratio is highest during the current year, with interest payments being equivalent to about 20% of estimated revenues. In the following two months, this ratio is much lower. As a result, paying interest in August would potentially be more difficult than in other months, but it is important to note that incoming revenues are substantially higher than payments for interest alone.

In theory, a default could also occur on principal if maturing issues of Treasury bonds, notes, or T-bills could not be refinanced. Such an unlikely scenario would assume that there were no buyers for the new instruments when outstanding issues came due. The first T-bill maturity date after August 2 is August 4, when $59 billion in T-bills mature. Should the Treasury be unable to find buyers for an equivalent amount, a default might occur. This scenario seems extremely unlikely, given the role of the T-bill market in both domestic and global financial markets. It is worth noting that the debt limit was reached on May 16, and the Treasury has had no problem refinancing its maturing debt until now.

 

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Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:00 | 1506441 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

whut-a-joke

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 19:00 | 1506739 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

There they go again rating junk POS with AAA.

 

Moodys hired all of those cheating teachers who pass kids to the next grade level when they can't even read the grade levels below?

 

Moody's Credibility sinks to Junk Status: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJXk8L22ACg

 

"As the housing market collapsed in late 2007, Moody's Investors Service, whose investment ratings were widely trusted, responded by purging analysts and executives who warned of trouble and promoting those who helped Wall Street plunge the country into its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. A McClatchy investigation has found that Moody's punished executives who questioned why the company was risking its reputation by putting its profits ahead of providing trustworthy ratings for investment offerings."

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 00:59 | 1507302 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

AH, keep up the good chat.

You may like to see Jim Roger's thoughts on Moody's

http://online.wsj.com/video/jim-rogers-us-already-has-lost-aaa-rating/0C...

 

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 08:59 | 1507520 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

I wish Moody's would stop nibbling on the barrell...

just pull the trigger already. Lets do this shit.

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 21:03 | 1508584 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Pfft, these rating agencies get their marching orders from the banks and uncle sugar.

One notch downgrade Pretty much equals junk.

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 11:22 | 1507661 Ag Tex
Ag Tex's picture

Ironically, Moody's and S&P's ratings should be downgraded to "junk".  It's a fraud!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 19:27 | 1506815 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Heh-heh-heh . . .
Have you heard the news?
(News? What news?)
Can't afford no shoes
(Ow! Get a deal on tape)
Have you heard the news?
(News? Can't afford a paper)
Can't afford no shoes
(Hi-yo-hi)

Went to buy some cheap detergent
Some emergent nation got my load
Got my load
Got my toad
That I stowed

Well, well,
Hey lawdy mama,
Can't afford no shoes
Maybe there's a bundle of rags that I could use
Hey anybody,
Can you spare a dime
If you're really hurtin', a nickel would be fine
Hey everybody
Nothin' we can buy
Chump Hare Rama, ain't no good to try
Recession
Depression

Wah-ooh-wah-ooh WAH-WAH
Wah-ooh-wah-ooh WAH-WAH

Well, well,
Hey lawdy mama,
Can't afford no shoes
Maybe there's a bundle of rags that I could use
Hey anybody,
Can you spare a dime
If you're really hurtin', a nickel would be fine
Hey everybody
Nothin' we can buy
Chump Hare Rama, ain't no good to try
Recession
Depression

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv7RXf9tMCI

 

 

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 08:15 | 1507485 snowball777
snowball777's picture

"Who cares if you're so poor you can't afford to buy a pair of Mod-a-go-go- stretch elastic pants?" - FZ

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:02 | 1506448 dasein211
dasein211's picture

Robo is right. Sickening as fuck but he is.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:17 | 1506623 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Yep.  Robo could type up tonight's lottery numbers and still get 4 pissed off responses.  Many of his responses may seem baiting or sarcastic but they are dead on.  The big boys in charge are definitely in charge. 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 21:49 | 1507073 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

.

 

Robo has Zero Credibility on this Forum.

 

ZERO,

 

Until you understand that, you are defunct.

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 00:17 | 1507254 Not For Reuse
Not For Reuse's picture

eat a dick, bitch. Robo has 100x the cred you will ever have

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:05 | 1506459 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

Bonds traded today as if they were upgraded to AAAA

Ultra superior, gilt-edged, fiat paper, the envy of the world.

LOL.....

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:10 | 1506467 hambone
hambone's picture

This "crisis" has clearly specified that T holders will be paid above all else.  If there is to be a default, it will be on the old, the infirm, the colored, the average, the children...basically those without lobbyists and representation in DC.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:16 | 1506491 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It's a parlour trick.  When the US government defaults, the BIS/IMF/World Bank will swoop in and tender an agreement with the world to how the new global credit system will function.  A new fiat standard will be issued, "backed" by gold and maybe silver/platinum.  Debt/GDP ratios will be assessed.  Credit standing will be judged.  The Treasurie is making sure that when this happens the Global Banking Cartel is assured the US will "do what it takes" to play their game.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:19 | 1506500 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

No way. As part of the IMF membership agreement, one's currency can specifically not be gold-backed.

They don't want to tie it to anything non-dilutable, as dilution IS the game.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:29 | 1506528 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Nah, Lennon has it right.

Think about way back in the day when the Fed started.  That currency was gold-backed wasn't it?  The dilution of the new currency will happen eventually, too.  It’s just that your kids and mine will be bitching about how Sasha Obama, IMF Head, has decided to take the SDR off the gold standard. 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:49 | 1506566 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Esacpe Key is right. Currency elasticity is the lifeblood of the banking cartels.  This is all being played according to the rules of the bailout game.  If you want to know the rules, then read The Creature From Jekyll Island, Chapter 2.  The only twist is that the dollar is the reserve currency, but that is about to change concurrent with war and a long period where there is no reserve currency, only resources.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:00 | 1506590 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

I don't disagree with anything you wrote above but still say Lennon is right.

So let's just kick back with some Dave Mason:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8_FOQ7-P30

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:08 | 1506600 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The name of the game is a One World Government with One Standard Currencie.  The World Bank, France, Russia, and many other States have urged this Standard to be backed by gold.

All sacrifices will be made at all costs to achieve this goal.  This has been the goal of the Dinosaur Kings sinceyear One.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 20:04 | 1506889 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep and that date is way sooner than most people imagine.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:24 | 1506514 Bonesetter Brown
Bonesetter Brown's picture

Say what?

A new global credit system is more likely to come from Facebook than that motley crew.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 00:31 | 1868952 haibop
haibop's picture

this is going to be exciting. Look at Euro today... foam mattress

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 13:48 | 1507212 Taku
Taku's picture

Pretend & Extend & repeat

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 23:56 | 2264350 haibop
haibop's picture

Hmmmm interesting... 48 gas range

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 09:53 | 1507561 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

LH, How deeply is one willign to pierce the Gold story? Beyond and behind Another and his acolytes perhaps, because he dug deep and far into history to deliver his clever, cleverly timed and delivered message. His work, anonymous to boot, is the GOld Standard by which FOFA and his readers base their Freegold thesis.

Then there is the other bedrock, all the gold ever mined would fit three swimming pools (Olympic to boot). Well, a recent temple treasure opening brought out 3-5 tonnes of pure gold, coins and biscuits that is and random, huge statues of gods in pure gold, some 7-8 feet tall. This, then the inner sanctum of th etreasury cannot be opened as it is believed it will expose a crack to the other world, causing instant global melt-down. 

Well, imagine what would happen if a thousand tonnes of gold was discovered there, or ten even. And this is one temple of a thousand at least of it's size, history and loot, in India alone. Then there is the Vatican and SwitzerTemplarland. 

I feel Gold is the ultimate head fake of this game.....

Meanwhile, I am with equal irrationality drawn to Silver. No midas story associated, as fungible as any other "hard" wealth store.

if gold is exhibiting signs of irrational rising that Silver was a scant month and a bit ago, I think thsi August 15th date might be intimately associated with a Dollar/Gold story of epic and historical proportions. Our september surprise might be delivered in August. 15 August 1971 Nix Nix shut the gold window, Hard, on DeGaulle's hand.

Just gut feelings. I'm hedged accordingly.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/07/30/pre-cursor-01/

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:28 | 1506524 Agent P
Agent P's picture

"This "crisis" has clearly specified that T holders will be paid above all else.  If there is to be a default, it will be on the old, the infirm, the colored, the average, the children...basically those without lobbyists and representation in DC."

What choice do they have?  If they don't pay the bondholders, then there will be no bondholders.  If there are no bondholders, they cannot run 40% deficit spending.  If they cannot run 40% deficit spending, the system collapses...not good for all the groups you mentioned above.  Sucks, don't it?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:31 | 1506533 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Anyone see this from goldseek about what the fed might be up 2? 

 

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1311919380.php

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:21 | 1506630 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

That was an interesting perspective.  It is amazing how shit that would have seemed like a sci-fi story 10 years ago now seems about as plausible as Lindsay Lohan getting gang-banged at a Shriner's convention. 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:30 | 1894294 haibop
haibop's picture

definitely this is very interesting perspective. walk in freezer

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:29 | 1506645 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Per Feroli, banks and financial institutions can lend their Treasuries to the Fed in exchange for Fed cash in order to ease any credit strains to be caused by a US default.  He was quoted as saying “In general, I think they’d want to temporarily substitute the Fed’s credit in place of the Treasury’s credit.” 

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1311919380.php

 

JP Morgan Head Economist Feroli.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-25/u-s-can-avoid-default-at-least-until-september-silvia-says.html

 


Credit Strains

Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Chase & Co., said a Fed contingency plan could allow banks and other financial institutions to temporarily lend their Treasury securities to the Fed in exchange for cash. Such a move would be aimed at easing any credit strains caused by a default, he said.

“In general, I think they’d want to temporarily substitute the Fed’s credit in place of the Treasury’s credit,” Feroli said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-25/u-s-can-avoid-default-at-least-until-september-silvia-says.html


Federal Reserve Pays Banks / Wall Street 800% More for Deposits over what “We the People” get paid!   http://goo.gl/LblE7

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 04:58 | 1507410 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Yes the 1% will be saved at the cost to the 99% untill the 99% starts handing the 1% from the lamposts(not gonna happen soon enough)

Sat, 03/10/2012 - 21:26 | 2244027 haibop
haibop's picture

exactly Inteligator

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:10 | 1506609 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It's a "dead Geithner bounce" Robo.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 11:47 | 1915102 haibop
Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:09 | 1506466 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Bill Gates just sold 5M shares of MSFT...I think he's going to buy the Turkish army and do a hostile takeover of the Treasury.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 23:55 | 1507233 Taku
Taku's picture

Raising a covert, private army?
No way. Not on the heels of political gridlock.
Just doesn't happen!
...For that matter, who'd think of such a thing?
Impossible.
Never.
This time is different.
It can't happen here.
They'll do the right thing.
They're leaders in senior positions.
No one actually went to jail for the financial crisis, so...
We can trust them.
We have to bail them out.

Where's George Lucas when you need him.

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 09:03 | 1507525 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

He has been selling every day for years. Why do you think the stock doesn't move much. Nothing new.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:09 | 1506468 rockraider3
rockraider3's picture

In other words, the US Government won't let Moody's downgrade their debt.  No surprise there.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 00:03 | 2196964 haibop
haibop's picture

let's see what's going to happen then. reverse phone detective

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:10 | 1506469 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

What Moodys just said it that as long as Washington gets a deal DONE to raise the debt ceiling. ANY DEAL by August 2nd they will not DOWNGRADE. Regardless of the deficit reduction plan presented. Merely maintain a negative outlook.

One wonders what the quid pro quo to Moodys was/is for this non action.

Unfuckingbelievable.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:25 | 1506517 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

Warren has been strangely silent through all of this, perhaps he received a call from the justice department

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:25 | 1506521 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

What is unfuckingbelievable is that Moody's even said it may downgrade the US in the first place. Of course, that was driven purely by the bluff to scare Republicans into submission... Which failed...

And now they are backed into a corner and have to backpedal.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:35 | 1506541 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Hence they are heretofore and hereafter known as Mooties.

And they do have cooties.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 19:17 | 1506784 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

At this point, MOONIES have more followers than moody's. Buffet should divest his MCO holdings and buy Unification church.

 

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2008/04/25/uni...

Sat, 12/24/2011 - 03:29 | 2008936 haibop
haibop's picture

mooties... mini fridge

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:36 | 1506546 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Ratings agencies are merely weapons, and are staffed by loyalists -  I assumed this was common knowledge (??)

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 11:15 | 1507660 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Which is exactly what Tyler said. Did you have some other point in mind?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:58 | 1506588 Noah Vail
Noah Vail's picture

I love it, downgrade after default. Fits right in line with budget reform after bankruptcy and collapse. Lock the door after the house has been robbed.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:13 | 1506615 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Lock the door after the house has been robbed.

Especially if you robbed your house yourself. 

Call the cops!  We've been robbed!

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 01:15 | 2180069 haibop
haibop's picture

sweet... surveys4income

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 22:54 | 1507155 BetterOffDead
BetterOffDead's picture

I actually saw that as Moody's helping Republicans. I.e. Even if a deal gets done, US will still get downgraded. I wasn't sure what had gotten into Moody's; are they that incompetent?

Think of it this way - if you made 25K a year and spent 40K a year for the next 10 years, you'd be 150K in the hole. Cutting 4 trillion over 10 years = 40K in that scenario, and our idiot congress can't even agree to cut that much!

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 00:41 | 1507286 takeaction
takeaction's picture

Tyler...I agree 100%....and there is no end game to these "Plans".  Every "Plan" they come up with is a complete joke/disaster.  Raise the debt ceiling, raise taxes, no spending cuts....when does it stop.  The Republicans have Obama backed into a corner....now use the power to finish him.  Listen to the father and son talk about it....and listen to what Ron says at the end..."He wouldn't pay his rent in SILVER"  Classic!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSofz-1KAng&feature=player_embedded

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:33 | 1506539 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

JP Morgue provides a very healthy slice of Moody's staff.

If you can't do the math there, well... I suspect you can.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 23:14 | 2076832 haibop
haibop's picture

definitely junk car for cash

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:18 | 1506470 oldman
oldman's picture

u

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:11 | 1506477 CHARLIE.DONT.SERF
CHARLIE.DONT.SERF's picture

Taking the pressure off. No downgrade unless debt is not serviced. Missed payments to employees are OK. Negative bias guaranteed.

Nothing to see here. Carry on.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:12 | 1506479 kito
kito's picture

MOODYS AND THE OTHER TWAT RATINGS AGENCIES JUST LOVE THIS FIASCO. THEY ARE BASKING IN THEIR GLORY. THE WORLD IS ONCE AGAIN LISTENING TO THEIR NONSENSE. AS FAR AS THEY ARE CONCERNED, THIS IS ALL ABOUT THE ISSUER, NOT WHATS BEING ISSUED.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:20 | 1506502 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

I thought you were chill.  This has you typing in all-caps?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:56 | 1506586 kito
kito's picture

so distracted by the debt hysteria didnt notice my caps lock button-poor posting etiquette on my part.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:12 | 1506480 march52011
march52011's picture

What a crock of shit!

I thought that these rating agencies were ready to regain their credibility.

They are in the feds back pocket.

Stevie Wonder could see that the US is not a AAA nation.

 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:19 | 1506497 Bonesetter Brown
Bonesetter Brown's picture

But Stevie Wonder doesn't buy the 10YR

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:16 | 1506489 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

This will start to increase interest rates on loans and suppress the housing markets even more.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:40 | 1506550 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Who is borrowing?

Who is buying?

It's the perfect time for rates to rise.

Sleazer margin hobbits get slammed, so what?

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 21:01 | 2389826 haibop
haibop's picture

will see Inteligator

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:05 | 1506599 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Hey, Sudden, all these fuckers prattle on endlessly about "affordable housing".  They are getting it now.  They should be happy.  Just wait for two years from now.  They should be fucking ecstatic. 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:18 | 1506495 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Backpedal bitchez!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:24 | 1506515 wombats
wombats's picture

Nothing will happen.  Pay the T-Bills, Pay the 8/15 interest, fund welfare/food stamps and the music keeps playing.

Grandma will probably get her SS check too, but she is lower priority since grannies don't riot, loot, and burn cities.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:43 | 1506564 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Obviously another clueless one.

'81 yr old kills intruder'

'79 yr old shoots car jacker'

'75 yr old fights off attackers in driveway.  kills 2'

2 million times a year.

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 08:28 | 1507496 snowball777
snowball777's picture

How many just lay there waiting for an EMS response?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:25 | 1506518 Shibumi2
Shibumi2's picture

Anyone who has traveled the world extensively will realize the us economy is the gold standard, regardless of the talking heads or ratings agencies.

where else is such an infrastructure in place and where else are the sheeple so compliant.

uprising? just let in a few more mexicans to keep the gears turning.

we are all most stupid to be debating something already preordained to take place.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:56 | 1506582 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Salmon Faverolle?  We have Mottled Houdans.

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 01:32 | 1507319 takeaction
takeaction's picture

You are very right.  When I was in Costa Rica, the government tried to raise all of the pay phone rates...well the people ripped all of the pay phones off the walls in every city....and no phone rate hikes.  Secondly the police tried to put the red light cameras in place for extra revenue...They were ALL gone in a matter of days...by the people.  We in the US are very compliant. We put up with it all...nothing will change.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:30 | 1506529 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

This is like "Beat the Reaper" Everyone in the audience knows they have the plague, but they don't get the penicillin until the contestant figures out what he has.  uh, uh,  wait a minute,  the contestant has  died,  Sorry studio audience but you can come back again tomorrow if your up to it!    Parting gifts include infections diseases and ridiculous notions you can play with in the time you have left.

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 03:20 | 1507383 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Waiting for my shot from "Topless-Nurse Judy"... :>D

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:32 | 1506536 GCT
GCT's picture

Pelosi as much as I hate the you know what , stated one time and one time only that moody's was not going to downgrade us anyway.  This is just more fricking fearmongering.  Oh wait did I hear the delta force knocking at the rating companies door?  Nah just another banker brining tidings and joy!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:01 | 1506593 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

"Pelosi as much as I hate the you know what"

 

You can say it, "twat". 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:32 | 1506537 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Did Mark Zandi approve this message?  I want an official WH stamp on it.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:07 | 1506602 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Is the message a muddled conglomeration of dishonesty and utter bullshit?  If so, then Zandi approved of it. 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:34 | 1506540 kaiten
kaiten's picture

Just as I said before: AAA to infinity and beyond, bitches. Bankster mafia at work. Those who think US can be downgraded are just way too naive. US will only lose its AAA ratings when this whole charade collapses, but it will be too late by then.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:36 | 1506544 Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

[The direction of the US government's debt rating will largely be determined over time by our projections of its deficits and stock of debt...]


Here, let me correct the typos...

The direction of the US government's debt rating will largely be determined over time by our willingness to be blamed for initiating the total economic collapse of the modern world...


Sat, 07/30/2011 - 03:22 | 1507384 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Which is why the ratings agencies will show up a day late, and an FRN short!

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 02:16 | 2188006 haibop
haibop's picture

come on, the situation is improving now. system

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:40 | 1506558 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Yup, meanwhile I just my Elliott wave Friday update. Dollar just waiting to burst up from a 'three wave flat correction' and, ready, gold, is still in the fifth wave of a fifth wave ( been like this for over three hundred dollars now) and ready to start a significant decline ! Target is about $600 FRNs -- because we all know how scarce they are!!!!

Precter, give it up...

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:09 | 1506605 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Prechter will go down in history as Prechtered, a synonym for sodomized, buggered, etc.

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 03:24 | 1507386 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Better off studying the surf off the Kalifornia coast... :>D

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:47 | 1506569 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Boner 3.0 vote at 6:15

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:51 | 1506578 youngman
youngman's picture

Let me see here...2.5 trillion in additonal debt...hopefully...that is if someone buys it...

The GDP is stagnant and at stall speed...

more unemployed....

less tax revenues....

1.5 million added to Social Security and medicare every year...

good for a AAA rating for me...

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:13 | 1506616 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

You forgot about the dollar being in intensive care.  Pall bearers Bernanke, Geithner, Obama, Dimon, Blankfein and Reid and already going through his possessions looking for loose change.  His death will be hastened by that additional $2.5 trillion in debt.  Just make sure you don't buy gold.  That makes you look crazy.

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 03:28 | 1507389 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can
collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the
insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in
the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted
collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." -- Anonymous

In addition, Japan is attempting to revive Godzira, so we got that going for us! :>D

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:50 | 1506579 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Regarding the title, is Mooties performing 'Outomes' on Goobermint drones?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:52 | 1506581 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

How many times do S&P and Moody's have to repeat this CRAP?! Either they rate objectively or do't rate.

Bill Gross (PIMCO) said "the rating agencies are worthless." I agree.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 17:59 | 1506589 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Talent is: Patience, discipline and character.

Its the firewalls that are created to stop talent rather then welcome it. That do the most damage.

Truth, honesty, morality and simplathy. It is critical that this become important in the minds of people.

Sadly truth leads to anger, honesty leads to sadness, morality leads to poverty and simpiathy leads to  tragedy.

Talent can lead to reciprocation, at least in experience and purpose.

When did talent become worthless?  When did it become cheaper to just fake it or ignore it?

Somewhere we lost the ability to price talent; or maybe we just never appreciated it for what it was.

" its judgement that defeates us." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_NwvO1UxN8

With 10 divisions of such men you could have a tyranny. For good or ill.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:00 | 1506591 Pete15
Pete15's picture

What do you guys think about Schiff on the debt ceiling http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4VgOXvESGo&feature=feedu

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 19:07 | 1506759 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Lets keep printing. Larry Summers made clear "the only way out of recession is by increasing exports." So by priting and devauling the dollar, exports will be much cheaper and this will in turn stimulate the economy.....who cares if gold goes to $25,000 and ounce...as long as The Economy recovers.

Sounds like "A Plan."

Right?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:13 | 1506614 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

<--Mark Zandi and Rachel Uchitel

<--Alan Greenspan and Andrea Mitchell

 

Wonder if Moody's was "paid off" in order to spook the Congress into a vote?  Maybe Mark Zandi will be knee deep in hookers at The Hamptons this weekend, enjoying the "special bonuses" handed out.

Chart of MCO:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=mco&inst...

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:16 | 1506621 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

The only thing you need to know about Zandi's knees is that he will be on them, in the position he has become so familiar with.  Zandi isn't the pitcher.  He is the Johnny Bench of the in-crowd.  "Batter up."

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:30 | 1506664 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

"an increase in the debt limit sufficient to last more than a short period of time, in which case the Aaa rating will likely be confirmed. "

So +100% debt to GDP is a good thing? Ok that means the rating agency is a total sham (I know we all knew that...but they had the chance to actually come out responsible).

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 18:43 | 1506696 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Debt is a game there is no requirement of "debt". Its not like the world will end or my plants will stop trying to grow if the US defaults.

"this shadow is just a passing thing" - Samwize Gamgi.

Fear: mortal terror is not a friend, nor is horror. They are warnings to be feared. Like a train crossing lights. Its best to stop but if you could stop you would have long before such warrnings where needed.

The only thing you NEED are moral and loveing, sympathetic humans. Who are willing to do to themselves what they do unto others.

Compasion for self, compasion for others and compasion for knowlage.

Without compasion for selfe you have no talent or progress in art or science.

Without compasion for others you place no value on others progress or simpathy for the impossable.

Without compassion for knowlage you place no value on the knowlage and thought that has come before you.

Comppssion. Is critical in forming morality.

imagionation is creativity hence compassion for self and others. For discovery cannot exist in the absence of imaginatin and the leading to discovery.

Imagine that spelling defined by kings and weath, imagion that grammar defined by kings and welth mattered to me; or to you.

:P  to provoke is to discover, the challenged and contested.

Rage, rage, rage against all you know and hold dear. Or embrace it as your own.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 19:24 | 1506807 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

At this point, MOONIES have more followers than moody's. Buffet should divest his MCO holdings and buy Unification church.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 19:45 | 1506851 Tunga
Tunga's picture

Thy fear and thy bullshit comfort thee. For thou art the dumbest mofo in all the valley of the morons.

 

Tunga is long fear. 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 19:46 | 1506856 angmikey
angmikey's picture

WFT????????? Are these people at Moodys stupid? Why wait longer if they are worried about the short term. If that is the case the government should have been downgraded to CCC by now since thay are completely unable to make a deal.

 

What a bunch of MORONS!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 20:12 | 1506904 docj
docj's picture

No, they're not stupid. They know we're broke.

But they also know who pays them and on what side their bread is buttered.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 20:27 | 1506929 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

More games and lies from the rigged casio.  If an insolvent goverment is aaa rated that what does rating mean in the real world?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 21:02 | 1506981 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Whenever ratings agencies, the government, investment banks, hedge funds, and the top 100 corporations have sex, it is called incest. They are all part of the same family rubbing each others' genitals for growth in their sector. Fucking disgusting.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 21:39 | 1507024 wwwmm
wwwmm's picture

removed content (advertising spam)

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 21:56 | 1507037 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Tyler, can you see a pattern?

Spain Faces Moody’s Downgrade Risk on Regions Budget Concern

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-29/spain-placed-by-moody-s-on-downgrade-review.html

Meanwhile..

Lookout Report: S&P 500 Corporations Are Reporting Solid Second-Quarter Earnings Growth; Earnings Per Share Reach Record Of $25

http://www.standardandpoors.com/products-services/articles/en/us/?assetID=1245316176683

Lastly,

ISC rating classifications

 

What am I overlooking?

 

Edit: Know what I see, just need confirmation to support the bread & circus debt ceiling debacle. Thanks.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 21:47 | 1507061 wwwmm
wwwmm's picture

removed content (advertising spam)

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 23:46 | 1507210 Dakota Thunder
Dakota Thunder's picture

It seems to me that the US played hardball and said say this or else.

I wouldn't loan the US a dime based on their balance sheet.

 

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 02:52 | 1507374 oldman
oldman's picture

Dakota,

an interesting point is that you did not loan them a dime and yet who is not going to get deposited funds back when it all falls in upon itself? Well, niether did I or anyone else-----but we are the lenders of last resort when the banks close----not the fed

I find that even though my funds will not be accessible (loser/lender), that the crisis fascinates me because there are so many 'unintended consequences' that no one has it figured out. I'm happy that I lived long enough to get this close to the end of this road. I don't care about money or power, but I do love chaos and the unknown                   

Thanks, your post triggered expression                                                                        om

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 02:54 | 1507371 Doyle Hargraves
Doyle Hargraves's picture

Fuck it, take her down to junk status boys! After all, that is what it really is once you clear away the bullshit, it is the best rated credit in the world based on 12 carrier groups and 12 army divsions saying it is good debt. Long gold, silver, lead, brass, and copper! Got plenty of food in the house, a f*cking arsenal to hold off the looters, gangbangers, and other agencies from the gubmint that are here to help, (just ask Randy Weaver how much they can help out). Not to mention two 4 wheel drives to run over the piles of bodies in the streets in style should I need to obtain anything through exchange of my 'tradition'al assets for other assets via barter with the others I know that are prepared. We don't have to fight on offense, we just have to defend our position, families, assets, and wait it out. SHTF, new forms of toilet paper, food riots, and Mad Max Bitchez!

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 08:57 | 1507517 Bob
Bob's picture

Modified bottle rockets and molatov cocktails will likely land on your roof.  You will be burned out and picked off as you exit.  If you don't sleep and if you have complete unobstructed 360 degree view of your surroundings to a sufficient distance, you may successfully  defend.  But traveling outside your compound?  No chance.  Your tires will be shot out, your 4X4 will be drenched in gas, etc, etc. 

Guns will, in reality, be far less effective than good social skillz and a completely under-the-radar posture. 

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 03:27 | 1507388 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

There is rating inflation.

 

AAAAAAAAAAAA is the new risk free

AAA is the new BBB junk stuff

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 06:32 | 1507439 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

they can't pay their own treasury department. treasury issues the debt--the Fed buys it. still--as a private bank you have to pay interest on that debt. with trillions in worthless MBS the Fed is basically a deadbeat borrower. Hyperinflation would be the natural response to "show Treasury who's boss"...but the USA has a system of coinage and the most highly evolved transportaion and communication system in human history. doubtful if the Bernank would make it. keep watching silver. unlike gold there are no reporting requirements. if one of these crazy tech companies has taken their billions in cash and bought 10 tons of silver with it "say good night Gracie." better yet the Spanish government has a history of doing just that...and with the crisis in Europe and "taking it to Spain" clearly it would be in Spain's best interest to remember their financial history vis a vis the rest of the world. We shall see...

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 09:02 | 1507524 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

All the ratings agencies are a farce.  They need to shut them all down, they work for the bankers...they will not tell you anything until it is too late. They will let their banker buddies find shelter before they tell the truth.  Any other country in the world, would have already been lowered to junk status 2 days from a full blown default.  Hell, Greece was trading 15% on their 5yr more than 2 weeks before they were lowered publicly.  This tells you these bankers are trying every tactic to stay rich at all cost, no matter who they lie to, or steal from.

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 09:07 | 1507531 cuttlefish
cuttlefish's picture

These guys are so full of shit it is not even funny. How could you possible rate a country with an AAA when their unfunded liabilities are in the 100 trillion dollar range?

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 09:55 | 1507566 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

So when are they just actually going to declare war on someone and wrap this thing up?

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 11:52 | 1507713 jm
jm's picture

Moody's analysis is questionable. 

The US brings in around $240 - $280 bln a month in revenue.  Coupon is servceable out of this. In addition, SSI is about $50 bln a month. The US will not default on its securities.  What it will do is cut spending. 

Forther, there are a number of assets that the treasury can sell as a last recourse.  Even before this, the Fed can unwind its balance sheet and forward proceeds to the Treasury. 

All in all, the debt ceiling has been pretty good set-up for treasuries.  State and muni debt will be in for a rude awakening, as they get no matching federal funds to stop the slow rot on main street. 

One possible glitch is that treasury info system are nbot designed to prioritize payments: they function to execute payments and keep records of IOUs.  It may be difficult to prioritze payments at the department level, like say ensure th emilitary gets paid over the department of energy.  Also, it is quite likely that Obama will not pay out SSI checks to get teabags to relent. 

Sorry, you get what you vote for.

 

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 12:31 | 1507790 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

S&P500 monthly chart shows a series of broadening patterns - aka megaphone wedges.

The three broadening formations reveal an unstable market where buyers and sellers battle for control...

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Sat, 07/30/2011 - 14:19 | 1507969 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Ever since Moody's was 180 degrees wrong by rating the Junk Subprime Bonds triple AAA, I have lost faith in ANY of thier comments.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 04:08 | 1667199 chinawholesaler
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