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Moody's Warns Of 1 Notch Downgrade If A Bitterly Divided Congress Does Not Begin To Cooperate
13 months ago, in the aftermath of the debt ceiling fiasco, which we now know was a last minute compromise achieved almost entirely thanks to the market plunging to 2011 lows, S&P had the guts to downgrade the US. Moody's did not. Now, it is Moody's turn to fire up the threat cannon with a release in which it says that should the inevitable come to pass, i.e. should congressional negotiations not "lead to specific policies that produce a stabilization and then downward trend in the ratio of federal debt to GDP over the medium term" then "Moody's would expect to lower the rating, probably to Aa1" or a one notch cut. Moody's also warns that should a repeat of last year's debt ceiling fiasco occur, it will also most likely cut the US. Of course, that the US/GDP has risen by about 8% since the last August fiasco has now been apparently forgotten by both S&P and Moodys. Sadly, continued deterioration in the US credit profile is inevitable, as every single aspect of modern day lives that is "better than its was 4 years ago" has been borrowed from the future. More importantly, with the S&P at multi year highs courtesy of Bernanke using monetary policy to replace the need for fiscal policy, Congress will see no need to act, and Moody's warning will be completely ignored. This will continue until it no longer can.
From Moody's:
Budget negotiations during the 2013 Congressional legislative session will likely determine the direction of the US government's Aaa rating and negative outlook, says Moody's Investors Service in the report "Update of the Outlook for the US Government Debt Rating."
If those negotiations lead to specific policies that produce a stabilization and then downward trend in the ratio of federal debt to GDP over the medium term, the rating will likely be affirmed and the outlook returned to stable, says Moody's.
If those negotiations fail to produce such policies, however, Moody's would expect to lower the rating, probably to Aa1.
Moody's views the maintenance of the Aaa with a negative outlook into 2014 as unlikely. The only scenario that would likely lead to its temporary maintenance would be if the method adopted to achieve debt stabilization involved a large, immediate fiscal shock—such as would occur if the so-called "fiscal cliff" actually materialized—which could lead to instability. Moody's would then need evidence that the economy could rebound from the shock before it would consider returning to a stable outlook.
Moody's notes that it is difficult to predict when during 2013 Congress will conclude negotiations that result in a budget package. The Aaa rating, with its negative outlook, is likely to be maintained until the outcome of those negotiations becomes clear.
The rating outlook also assumes a relatively orderly process for the increase in the statutory debt limit, says Moody's. The debt limit will likely be reached around the end of this year, and the government's ability to meet interest and other expenses out of available resources would likely be exhausted within a few months after the limit is reached.
Under these circumstances, the government's rating would likely be placed under review after the debt limit is reached but several weeks before the exhaustion of the Treasury's resources. Moody's took a similar action during the summer of 2011.
And this is where we stand: Moody's has basically said that unless the red line stop going from the lower left to the upper right it may, just may, do something:
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forget it jake, its Chinatown
It's cool. The top is rounding off. We'll be at zero public debt by 2105 based on my calculus.
If it isn't we should take away toys in the bathtub.
That'll teach'em a lesson.
Uhm, isn't this backards?
If Congress reaches a deal, it will be to gut the Sequester and spend more money. It will be to continue the tax cuts and have lower revenue.
Both of those increase the deficit and worsen debt.
If there is no deal, spending is slashed. Taxes go up. Yes, there will be a recession and tax revs will be lower because of it (than with no recession) but tax revs may be higher even with the recession as a result of the tax increases.
All of which means lower deficit and better debt profile.
So why isn't Moody's saying "if you get a deal and the deficit is therefore not slashed, we cut your rating"?
so is this the princeton offense, where b.o.e passes the ball to lloyd, lloyd hits ben at half court, ben sees obama at the top of the key, 1 bounce to obama, obama sees warren at the hoop, throws a lob to warren , who fakes the slam and kicks it out to moodys at the three point line, who with congress or better known as the washington generals, in its face drains the three....
Why is anyone taking what a rating agency states seriously, minus maybe Egan-Jones?
Because these "independent" agencies are part of the corrupt status quo. Simply more paper-pushing fucknuts stealing wealth without creating anything of real value. Bloody sheep.
Along with the independent Federal reserve, independent auditors, independent media, independent (and non partisan) congressional budget office, independent ECB, independent ESM, independent economists, and so on.
Correct, one corrupt mess of paper-pushing theives. Fuck them all. Build wealth and trust in your friends and neighbors, you are gonna need each other shortly. The world needs to learn what real wealth and value are again. The last time this happened there were less than a billion people on earth and the direct death toll was over 70 million. Hedge accordingly.
We may be heading for a new cycle where skills for reducing systemic risk exposure by increasing independence at a local level will be in high demand.
They already are. we have been bringing considerably more of our produce to local farmer's markets. We don't make any more money on these sales, but the headache is considerably less. and it does reduce the carbon footprint of the business.
Please expound. To what time period are you referring?
1913-1950.
Not only that, but why is anyone taking the official "Debt/GDP" statistic seriously?
That number is a fraud because the numbers used in the calculation are fraudulent. All "they" have to do is round a decimal up instead of down and viola, GDP growth outpaced debt growth. Like any government statistic, it's all a lie. See shadowstats.com for those who somehow have never heard of this concept.
The shit is hitting the fan in "super-slow-mo" and all it takes to see it is the attention span to watch it fly and anticipate its trajectory, without being distracted with media shennanigans. Then instead of watching the "dope show" you can get busy preparing your shit shield and/or getting the heck out of the room.
I think we can all agree that printing is the best solution to any money problem!
ROTFLMAO - What are you waiting for?
It's called bad parenting.
Ever told your kids to stop fighting?
Then threatened trouble if they continue...on and on with no real action.
Thats Moody's
All the Politicians will do is sic the government lawyers on them.....outlaw ratings agencies....start their own.....
Pirating the current EU model.
And here we go again.
What have these people solved?
Nothing.
Beyond banana republic for both Europe and the US.
S&P so quiet lately......
And let us not forget Fitch always threatening for the next year and the next right.....
Actually, I live in a potato republic.... It's to cold to grow bananas....
Who cares about the ratings. As if the FED, the number one buyer, looks at the credit rating prior to writing a $T check.
It does make you wonder what it would take for the Fed to be forced to buy 100% of the new and roll over notes. At two-thired to three-quarters of all net new floats, we are not far off.
I think I'll add some zeros to my digital bank account with my right hand and then loan it all to my left hand...
"The rating outlook also assumes a relatively orderly process for the increase
in the statutory debt limit, says Moody's"
These motherfuckers are more evil than they are stupid. Basically saying we will leave you alone as long as you RAISE the debt ceiling and don't fight about it. We are accelerating into the brick wall at this point. Where is the fucking handle to open the door and jump out?
It doesn't matter what Congress does. Uncle Ben will just turn the money machine up to 11:
http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/09/10/on-fed-created-distortions/
I would argue the fed eagerly awaits ratings cuts to the US at this point. That will probably be the mechanism to herd more sheep into the safety of treasuries.
And that statement makes sense to 2 other people.
Only one notch?...shit, that should have been done years ago...fucktard Moody's.
I think that I am familiar with the fact that you are going to ignore this particular problem until it swims up and BITES YOU ON THE ASS. ~Hooper
We're gonna need a bigger boat.
Yeah, to sink my gold in...
Sorry the Titanic already sank!
Let's be honest, they haven't downgraded yet because their owners haven't hedged their positions yet.
Once the Euro conclusion is taken place, the hedge funds and big bank investment arms will make thier bets, and tell Moody's on when to downgrade US Debt. The DOW tanks, they hedge, and make millions.
Easy game.
The Republicans have bent to cooperate with the Democrat agenda for decades - which they had to since the demos controlled both houses most of the time. But now when the "Cliff" is near, the Demos won't budge one inch off their irresponsible spending habits. This is not gonna end well....
Plenty of Republicrat control and spending during the Bush years. Try again.
BTW, I'm not voting for Romney.
are you voting at all?
how does the surety of a diebold outcome jive with "voting"
I'm voting Libertarian, so the Republicrats can count the votes they lost because they dissed Ron Paul.
Because at least it will be audited by Arthur Anderson.....errrr I mean Accenture!
Sadly, I suspect that post is not a joke.
Congress agreeing will not happen and it does not matter. Moody's could downgrade to FFF- with outlook chaos and the FED will continue to lend Primary dealers at less than a quarter of one percent and those dealers will buy the treasuries and the tax payers will fund the banks to the tune of 500 billion a year. That is how a ponzi works.
@banjodoug---You dont get it......congress cooperates quite well.....both parties are well aware that the deficit spending is the only way the country eeks out a paltry 1% growth in gdp.....both parties pump money into the system to prop up the economy through the untouchable channels....public welfare and military welfare.....both parties have no intention of making tough choices so they continue to divide and conquer......make sure the sheep stay riled up at the other party......oh...and take a look at the bills that have gutted your constitutional rights....all passed by both parties with flying colors.......congress has been agreeing with each other for quite some time.........
Is anyone aware of a public analysis of the PD banks' balance sheets that shows what would be a requisite increase in the line item "Treasury and Agency Securites Held for Sale"??
Yea it will be a real orderly process on the debt ceiling.
It's also a joke Timmy G can ravage Federal pensions for months before they even have to do anything about it.
Moreover how in the world do they expect them to get the ratio down in this environment? Have they even had a budget in the last 4 years? 1T+ deficit spending each year not so much of a budget.
As someone already mentioned there is zero point in waiting for some spring miracle that ain't happening.
No need to wait.
Just cut it.
Honey Badger don't give a shit about downgrades.
They're cooperating alright. They've agreed to look the other way while the fiscal cliff hits. They'll brag about how they avoided the "automatic" cuts. The increased taxes are the fault of the other guy.
at least our yields aren't >5% on the treasuries. Imagine our interest bill if they were?
We'll get a slew of new taxes to soothe the rating agencies. I know I'll sleep better.
Paging Tim Geithner Stat......
I've got a bootleg version of Turbo Tax.....it's totally yours if you need it.
If you have the ability to leave the USA please do so NOW! 75% of GDP to over 100% of GDP in 3 years! That is insane.
It's probably worse than that, really, if you think there could be any discrepancy between "real GDP" and "reported GDP." Heh.
But the bigger issue is that Debt/GDP is a bogus measurement.
It's a bit like saying your diet is sensible because you only eat 10% of what's in the fridge each day. Without a good deal more information, you can't make any sense at all of the metric.
Run that chart back a few more years. In America, only the taxpayer is put at risk now. The corporations, their owners, management, and shareholders never have to pay back the creditors after they run a company into the fucking ground. That is so "19th century". Say it with me, "Socialization of Private losses". Isn't fascism great? They live high on the hog while running the company into the ground, you, the taxpayer, pick up the tab while they keep their stolen wealth. - FAIL. Until the moral hazard is addressed, nothing changes. Fuck the paper-pushers. Paper promises will always be worthless which is just fine with anyone who knows the real value of thier labor.
Real wages could easily have been twice today's wages in the West, if surpluses would have gone into investment in productive capital assets that workers could use to increase their productivity. But because of low interest rate policies, economic agents have spent money by borrowing from the future and have not invested it efficiently.
Instead, we have the 1% spending money on services which results in a pyramid-shaped economy with shoeshiners, dog walkers, nannies, cashier and telemarketing jobs at the bottom. These workers are not allocated productive tools as these resources have been squandered on wars, welfare and housing that have not added productivity to the economy.
when there is no cost for capital (thanks to ZIRP), it tends to get mis-allocated and mal-invested. The problem is, that while you can always "print" more capital, resources are finite and real inovation takes skilled labor. Skilled labor means a decent wage.
Moreover, the paper-pushing fuckers close to the "free money" never experience inflation. That's fine I guess, because there is a guillotine waiting for them on the other side of that trade.
They have to downgrade since German Finance Minister Schauble said today that the world is blind, while everyone in US bitching about EUrope they dont look there shit hole.
The Democrats continue to spend freely. The president has let the credit rating of the greatest country in the history of the world to be cut by S&P and Moodys (owned by Warren Buffet btw) is about to downgrade. I know Mitt Romney ain't the best choice or the most popular, but the other guy sucks. Seriously. He's not good. I don't know how in God's creation can the polls show Obama is the lead. Is it the dishonest MSM? Crazy!!!!
That's a good sheep, keep believing the left/right paradigm. The moneychangers appreciate your support and the sacrafice of your children.
This "left/right paradigm" crap is getting stale. What the fuck does it mean? You have two choices? No shit. What the fuck, you were born yesterday? Pick one, you have to choose between the marxist currently in the WH or rollin' the dice with Romney. Or sit on your ass and complain about the "left/right paradigm".
Grow the fuck up.
I suppose if you're misguided enough to think of Obama as a "Marxist," you can be excused for thinking our votes for asshole A or asshole B could possibly make any difference.
And how are you going to make a difference, oh yeah , write in Ron Paul.Thatll solve everything.
I'm boycotting FEDGOV, and encouraging others to do the same. If we stop paying attention to them, they'll have to get a new act to bring in the ratings. Maybe it'll be more entertaining.
See, here is where I get confused. Do you really have to choose one? Does your vote actually do anything? This "right to complain" line is getting a bit old as well. The more people break free of using the current system to incite change, the better off I believe we will be.
Time to sit back with some beer and popcorn. Hope everyone speaks a major European wait no . . . Asian no there too . . .Russsian shit, no there as well . . . foreign language . . . .shit we are screwed.
Another point, S&P cut the US over the political environment and the wreckless spending.
2 Trillion dollars plus in deficit spending 1 year later has anything improved?
Because by their logic it should have been cut multiple times by now.
It's crystal clear S&P.
Uncle Warren is getting a call right about now getting leaned on from Obummer.
Bullshit. Just in time to shake the dollar/bond market a little bit and lift equities. Fuck this rigged bullshit!
Moddy downgrades EU for opposite reasons. This is 1 big mafia they have there own country it is called US.
I remember what my old man used to say to me.
"Why don't you get out of the bathroom and give someone else a chance!"
Moody's is owned and managed by the US government and this my friends is a con game, don’t buy it for a second. We need a President that is engaged with the congress not this clown who spent the past 12 months on the campaign trail. No leadership equals no results and a downgrade is overdue no matter what they raise the debt ceiling. We cannot repay the 16 Trillion on the books.
Are we still in a recovery like Biden and Obama told us?
Obama's job is to drive the country into the ditch.
His buddy Warren Buffets job is to tell his stooges at Moody's to blame the financial collapse on Congress.
Harry Reid's job is to make sure nothing happens in Congress.
This is classic Soros country takedown 101.
Under Soros' plan, the next step is a highly contentious election followed by revolution.
Don't worry Moody, congress will cooperate and as usual compromise by putting the worst parts of Dem's and Rep's proposals together.
Such as the Dems won't cut spending, the Reps won't increase taxes, and both agree to lower FICO taxes to make SS much more sustainable. /sarc
Default is the only way to go
That was entirely obvious to me with the US FY 2009-2010 'budget', and especially clear with the FY 2010-2011 'budget'. Since then it's become more and more obvious that the responsible US Chambers of Govt, and the White House, have completely capitulated 'budget' control, and given spending over to derbanke. The so-called budget-papers were a ruse designed to distract from the implications that were evident within them that there was no actual budgeting occurring in Govt any more. And what sort of delusional chappie did they hand the spending over too? Here are some examples of how derbanke's cerebral can-'o-spagetti 'works':
So yeah, the modern USA is finished, and with Government like that, so it should be. And the rest of the world is now going to have to take a hard-nosed look to where this leaves them, economically, financially, socially, geopolitically and militarily, as that comes about.
Because planet humanity is now going to increasingly plumb the depths and horror of a grand geopolitical and strategic reset and new-normal, due to the owners of central-banks and their bought-puppet politicians, pursuing actions that collectively would bring us to the point of grand-scale instability, global-crisis, and a complete departure from the Old-World-Order. And this apparatus is about only one thing, when all is said and done:
G L O B A L S L A V E R Y
And covering it with a paper thin-veneer of benevolence, security, and the never-ending lie of the 'greater-good'. But fear not, the mainstream-media are more than willing to help-out to make sure we end up destroyed.
The Main Stream Media have done this again and again, to country after destroyed country. We watched them do it, and we just let them get away with it. We didn't force the MSM to stop doing what we could plainly see them doing. By acts of omission and commission the MSM enabled the destroyer's lies and plans to come to fruition. And the MSM bosses clearly knew what they were doing, and what the outcomes would be of it. And they are doing it still, on an ever-increasing scale. They are the lie apparatus, the weavers of the illusion, the maintainers of the inertia of the grand lies, that what is being done is right and just and necessary, and being done for good reasons and intents. Protecting the incredible lie that all of it is ultimately rational in some way.
That both the ends, and the excuses offered, justify everything when they plainly justify and excuse nothing.
So now doing that to an entire globe and to the USA itself, does not require much of a redirection of emphasis, on the MSM's part, now that the central-bank controlled fascist two-party police-state and its industrial weapon-factory's sales-videos portray and treat everyone within their propaganda as a threat to 'security'.
That includes your family.
All of Humanity has thus been defined as the primary threat, and the Mainstream Media is endlessly enabling this lie to grow into a justification for mass implementation of policies and actions, designed to commit acts of war and slavery against humanity.
These are the new 'crimes against humanity', these are the enablers and the perpetrators.
Triple the co-sponsors on HR 1489 (restoring Glass-Steagall) and, wha la, the criminal ratings agencies extortion problem disappears. GUARANTEED.