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More Bad News Imminent: August US Auto Production Set To Plunge By Most In 16 Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Over the past several months, many pundits were scratching their heads at the peculiar patterns in summer hiring and layoff trends, which threw all NFP, claims, and JOLTs forecasts in a loop making a mockery of even the best forecasters. The reality is that there was a very specific reason for this abnormal seasonal pattern: numerous car plants worked throughout the summer, avoiding traditional temporary shutdowns and furloughs, in an attempt to provide an optical boost to the Union-endorsed administration. And as always happens (see Cash for Clunkers), every attempt to pull demand or supply from the future to the present results in an eventual collapse in either of these two. Sure enough, with June and July reaping the benefits of advance demand, August is set be an absolutely abysmal month for US auto assemblies and for Industrial Production. Because as Stone McCarthy calculates, based on projections provided by Wards Autos, the U.S. motor vehicle assembly rate for August is projected to decline by 8% to a 10.1 million annualized rate after rising by 4.4% in July. This would be the biggest monthly percentage decline in the assembly rate in about a year and a half, since April 2011's 9.5% drop.

SMRA continues:

For the Fed's industrial production report, we project motor vehicle output to decline by 4% in August after rising by 3.3% in July. The anticipated decline in motor vehicle output will restrain industrial activity in August. In July, industrial output rose by 0.6% with manufacturing output up 0.5%.

And since Industrial Production feeds directly into bean counter models for GDP calculations 2%+ GDP forecasts for Q2 are about to see their floor falling off and the economy return to a sub-stall speed growth rate, even as the growth rate of debt refuses to budge lower by even one iota.

 

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Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:13 | 2749546 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

<-----QE this year.

<-----QE next year.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:23 | 2749585 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

<---------QE for ever and ever.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:33 | 2749617 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Crap.....what's going happen if I need to buy a Volt?

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:36 | 2749628 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Probably pick one up at a fire sale.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:45 | 2749651 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I'm sure this is merely a seasonal anomaly.

How long was the Dark Ages again?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:03 | 2749718 Manthong
Manthong's picture

One man’s optical boost is another man’s boiling mirage.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:49 | 2749666 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

"Probably pick one up at a fire sale."

that was funny

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:57 | 2749694 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

There are two kinds of Volts: ones that have caught on fire and ones that are going to catch on fire.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:58 | 2749702 Turin Turambar
Turin Turambar's picture

and if it's actually on fire when you buy it, it'll be even cheaper.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:40 | 2749634 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Buy a Hyundai!  ;)

Hyundai actually makes a nice looking Sonata Hybrid.

Yes, sir!  We have your bearing!  Down in Peru...

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:37 | 2749630 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I am going back to painting my nude studio model until 10am tomorrow.  Seeing Liesman on CNBC just demoralized me.  

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:04 | 2749714 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Put Liesman's head on your nude and you'll have a museum worthy piece.

I'm sure there's a critic that will write up four or five paragraphs how monumental your symbolic critique of civilization and characteristic frisson between the civilized work force and the awareness of subconscious forces beneath the surface within us all.

or something like that ;)

better yet, slap on a $950k price tag and they'll be beating your door down.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:25 | 2749591 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Bernanke is actually a smart fellow.  He's an academic and looks at data.

Suppose he said, the point of printing money is to be sure that a growing economy is not choked off by its lack.  Since we're not growing very fast, we don't need to add any more.  Further, 10 year bond yields are low and falling again, so there's really no point.

Perhaps no more QE as far as the eye can see.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:30 | 2749608 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL, people still actually think the Fed are mechanics busilly turning wrenches trying to fix things? 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:54 | 2749684 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

I think that the Fed mechanics just keep spraying ether into the economy's carburetor...does our economy still have a carburetor?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:33 | 2749818 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

does our economy still have a carburetor?

Do we still have an economy?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:30 | 2749610 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Most agree they never stopped QE-ing. 

Overt/Covert.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 13:16 | 2749966 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

"Since we're not growing very fast,"

 

Are you ASSuming based on official data, like "academics" do?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:58 | 2749697 TrillionDollarBoner
TrillionDollarBoner's picture

those QE scores would have been reversed a few months ago. looks like kito and sheepie1 have called this right for a while

 

still room to be wrong though... (december)

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:14 | 2749552 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

you can pay me now or you pay me later.....but you will pay !

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:38 | 2749842 socalbeach
socalbeach's picture

Gives new meaning to the term "money laundering".

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:41 | 2749850 monad
monad's picture

It was a fiat dime.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 13:19 | 2749977 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Back in '63 dimes still contained silver.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 13:18 | 2749971 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

Yes....several of those sorts of quack 'dismissals' going on here in Iowa with WF. They've suggested that it was new FDIC rules that brought this all about, something about taking care that there aren't any more Bernie Madoff's around.

What a load of BS

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:14 | 2749554 Jason T
Jason T's picture

garbage index..  down 26% year over year

 

http://daytradersfx.com/the-us-garbage-indicator/

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:18 | 2749567 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

EPA now stands for Employment Prevention Agency. What better way to reduce pollution than to prevent production of everything.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:15 | 2749759 i-dog
i-dog's picture

'Agenda 21', biachez! Like it or lump it.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:14 | 2749556 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

ECRI - timing was exact. Recession started in Q2, May 2012.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:15 | 2749559 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

QE Tomorrow, Bitchez!

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:33 | 2749620 Alpacanio
Alpacanio's picture

Lol. don't you guys get it. QE has never stopped! Look at the National Debt clock!

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:15 | 2749560 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

no more channel stuffing..

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:16 | 2749561 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

<---  QE never

<---  QE forevah!

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:36 | 2749605 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

With US debt and unfunded liabilties currently increasing at $8.35 trillion a year ($22.86 billion a day), we will have QE forever.  

The longer that Bernanke goes without QE, the larger the next QE will be.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:48 | 2749875 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

More QE till we finaly hit the brick wall of inevitable consequences.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:17 | 2749562 the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

Why in the hell are they letting these facts leak out like this, very suspicious!

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:22 | 2749580 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

when you want to figure out a criminal you gotta think like one. Nothing wrong with being suspicious.....

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:43 | 2749858 monad
monad's picture

Deep rooted sadism

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:17 | 2749563 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

bullish

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:37 | 2749631 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I noticed a horse running the other day at RP. The name was I Need A Baleout. Racehorse names are a leading indicator.

 

Running tomorrow:

Deflationary Fears

Pretend and Extend

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 22:08 | 2751335 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"Grand Apocalypse" is in the running... :>D

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:20 | 2749573 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Yes, sales are down, production is down, but I'd like to put a few cars away for my grandchildren.  Any chance at financing?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:20 | 2749574 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Stealth campaign contributions by the union was documented in the WSJ a month or so ago.  The union spends millions in political efforts that are not reported as contributions.  When government gets directly involved in the economy, read Government Motors, it becomes more corrupt than throwing games because of gambling bets.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:21 | 2749575 OldE_Ant
OldE_Ant's picture

(/sarc) Yeah but arn't bicycles and motorcycle sales at all time highs? 

If they don't have a job, they don't need a car!

I feel a government auto purchase rebate program coming soon.  Maybe they should switch over to manufactoring Armored personnel assault vehicles.  I hear those are selling like hotcakes, or better retool for gun barrels, or ammo.(/sarc)

End of Line

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:21 | 2749576 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I thought Obama saved the U.S automotive industry. Maybe he can by us all a new car out of his stash.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:41 | 2749638 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Help the plebs? Doubt that.

At least not until you see every government worker driving a new GM car first.

They should give them away with scratch-off tickets. The plebs fucking love scratch-off tickets! (thank God for pay-at-the-pump)

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:21 | 2749577 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

bullish

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:21 | 2749578 youngman
youngman's picture

We need more student loans so we can buy more cars...but it must of been the Volts...all those GM Volts

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:23 | 2749584 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Better get the rest of that bailout money back, and fucking quick.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:24 | 2749586 Curt W
Curt W's picture

I take it that all the channels are adequately stuffed.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:27 | 2749601 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

They won't be stuffed solid until there are two Lambos in every driveway.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:38 | 2749839 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

GM doesn't make Lambos, they make Chevy votes.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:35 | 2749827 SoCalBusted
SoCalBusted's picture

+1000

Dealers are probably finally pushing back on having inventory jammed down their throats.  Who is financing the dealers' inventory? 

Next step, nationalize the dealerships so that they can keep stuffing.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:24 | 2749589 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Not surprising. Much of the debt growth was auto and it had to peak sometime. Today's number don't help.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/08/30/jobless-claims-stuck-at-dec-12-level-consumer-confidence-remains-weak/

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:25 | 2749592 Conman
Conman's picture

I smell cash for clunkers 2.0 in 2013.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:03 | 2749721 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

cash for clunkers 1.0 was summer 2009

summer 2013 should be about right

plus, the trade-in will be on newer vehicles that track your position, transcribe your conversations, detect your pulse and alcohol levels and sniff for residual gunpowder and pharmaceuticals. and cash. and check your rfid/licenseNumber. for your own protection.

also, it will drive you. automatically. for your own protection. to a safe place we have prepared. you'll like it. do not tamper with the restraint system. 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:41 | 2749851 SoCalBusted
SoCalBusted's picture

CarMax keeps sending me mail...

"Hey it's been 6 years since you bought a car, don't you want a new one by now"

Not to mention that when I bought it in 2006 it was already 4 years old!  160K miles and still runs fine.  Government will probably want me to turn it in, especially since it is a V8 SUV.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:26 | 2749595 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

My "82" Deville isn't going to last forever. I'll be in the market for a new car in 10 years or so.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:26 | 2749599 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Channel officially stuffed! More dealership parking lots, stat!

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:43 | 2749645 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

There are still a few empty strip mall and failed restaurant parking lots around here to fill up.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:59 | 2749704 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

only a few?  geesh, you guys must be doing well up there.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:28 | 2749604 tuttisaluti
tuttisaluti's picture

bernie just looks at the beige book. No QE in this case.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:29 | 2749606 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Heres a real fine alternative to the electric cars.

I have been working on this in my fully tooled workshop for twenty years.  The wooden car.  Environmentally friendly, fully re-useable motor.

It has a wooden chassis, and a wooden engine, with leather bound wooden seats, and fully customisable wooden accesories.

The only problem is, it woodnt go, and woodnt work.

Electric anyone?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:18 | 2749768 Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

Woodnt go and woodnt work, but wood it cum?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:28 | 2749799 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Some bloke from Amerika bought the patent off me, guy by the name of Barry Sotero.

Reckons its a dead cert.  Mind I thought he was high faluting when he said he was gonna pump 500 Billion yank bucks into it and secure amerikas future, but alas what the fuck would I know.

Just sold him it as a bit of profit, I now have 600 billion yank bucks in the bank like.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:53 | 2749882 viahj
viahj's picture

needs a horse

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:29 | 2749607 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

maybe warren has been channel stuffing becky...

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:32 | 2749614 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Better strap a 2x4 across your ass before trying to stuff Becky.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:30 | 2749609 kito
kito's picture

what if bernanke lends cars to the federal government instead of dollars? that might fix the system? 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:32 | 2749615 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

More than 39% of vehicles have more than 100k on them.  And they still can't sell vehicles....

 

http://atlantagasprices.com/Past_Polls.aspx?poll_id=625

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:34 | 2749622 stant
stant's picture

GE could buy only so many volts. the rest they sent to somone to buy votes

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:06 | 2749730 optimator
optimator's picture

Hmmm.  If you park your GE Company Car in your garage and it catches fire and burns down your house killing you and your family does the GE Insurance on that car pay your survivors lots of bucks?  (before or after a jury trial?)

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:36 | 2749627 docj
docj's picture

Obama didn't build that. Someone else... made that happen.

< / Blame Bush >

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:43 | 2749642 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Government propaganda has been telling us cars are evil for decades, so isn't this great news?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:42 | 2749644 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

A) QE next year

B) Why build cars when no one has any money to buy them?

I mean, if I ran a car company, and I saw the stagnating wage levels of the "middle" classes, the levels of debt (and deleveraging) by those in the work force, the millenial tendency of desiring public transportation, and the deflation in certain commodities......on top of the potnetial "EuroBomb" and Fiscal Cliff in the Fall - why in the fuck would I try to expand right now?

There is NOT enough volume to sustain growth in any sector, especially cars.  With "Cash-4-clunkers" gone, the only target for car makers is the affluent, who can (and will) take advantage of the consumer-friendly pricing thanks to the Fail Economy.  And for those like GM who issue loans (some sub-prime) via their loan banks (sharks) like Ally bank so consumers can buy cars......would *I* be confident that they will get paid back with the current economic outlook?

If I wanted to set money on fire, I can just buy $FB shares.

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:46 | 2749656 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

The MSM will spin this as an improvement from April 2011.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:50 | 2749669 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I understand why this might be considered "bad news," but really, it seems to me that it's far better to stop manufacturing cars if none are being sold.

#winning

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:52 | 2749677 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Production will be up soon on the largest SUVs - you know, the really big family-sized ones priced about the size of a decent student loan. With reclining horizontal seats - the ones that you joke about being sooo big, you could actually LIVE in it. When I think of streets lined with large SUVs with tinted windows shaking back and forth in the mornings after alarms go off and kids getting out for school - TRIPLE BULLISH US AUTOS..

Better than vouchers, just park near the best schools.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:56 | 2749687 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Bad news?  BAD NEWS?  From an investment banker perspective looking for the trigger for the next QE this is nothing less than brilliant news, especially coupled with another weak unemployment data set.  Not only will it trigger the required new cascades of hot cash for Wall Street it will handsomely engorge those sums.  Add in the deployment of a lot of Revolutionary Guards from Iran to Syria that the MSM seems to have missed which should do wonders for commodity prices, and we have nothing less than a full giant leap forward on the class war eastern front.  Lebensraum for the elite you know.  You can try to arbiet but it will not macht frie.

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/526162_415049101876617_1215841064_n.jpg

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc6/c38.0.403.403/p403x403/228476_414832801898247_832535238_n.jpg

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc6/c0.0.403.403/p403x403/206154_413675815347279_26965307_n.jpg

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 13:13 | 2749958 optimator
optimator's picture

I dunno, the bankters are seeing that most of the Sheeples are starting to catch on to their looting of the economy........but then again, they ARE prepared for that too!

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:07 | 2749733 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Maybe the TSA could invest in car throwing trebuchets.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:36 | 2749734 optimator
optimator's picture

Instead of passing your next dealer, go on in if you can find a place to park.  Seems all the lots are full of new cars leaving NO place to park!  Oh, and next time you're at the VA or any other government facility drive around the parking lot and note all the Volts and Impalas parked in a row without plates.  Me thinks there will be fire sales (no pun intended) on GM vehicles after the election.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 14:02 | 2750101 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

How about a Chevy 110 Volt? Plug it into the wall and drive around the house - about as far as the battery one would go, but for a fraction of the price. Package base models with a standard plug and include an extention cord with premium trims.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 14:22 | 2750154 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

A lot of my Bi friends are buying Volts because they mistakenly believe they are AC/DC.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 14:23 | 2750156 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

OK I deserve the red arrows for that one.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 14:32 | 2750172 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Lamps, coffee makers, the new toaster, I have bought a lot of stuff in the last couple of years that had really short cords, the new washer/dryer is coming Saturday and the cord is not even included for the dryer, you have to pay extra for it, and the washer hoses, and the dryer flexible ducting, they were $40 more, and you have to buy them new from the store or the warranties on the machines are void they say, plus they will have no liability for a flooded house or a fire unless you are snookered into this expense.  Since when do we have to pay for machines by buying their individual parts?  This is the reverse of hedonics in which they claim inflation is lower because you are getting more for your money through product improvements, what shall we call it?  SHE-donics?  Where you see a pretty package but when you get it home find out it has a bunch of screws loose or missing entirely, and which always costs more than advertized. 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 19:08 | 2750221 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

I understand both, the motivation and the excuse for the power cord dilemma. I'm on the other end with way more cords than devices. The thing is, most consumer goods nowdays don't last long. They all come with cords (power, USB and what not) and now I've accumulated boxes and boxes of all varieties of cables. Whenever I buy a replacement device, I thorw all of the cables into marked bins while keeping wires that were attached to the predecessor.

 The manufacturers want to shave a few cents off each unit and I'm not too upset.

 If anyone asks me for a cord, I just give it to them, so I'm taking care of people in need... at least locally.

 My advise - don't buy cords. Ask around. Someone has more than they need.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 15:09 | 2750285 Venerability
Venerability's picture

Again, that is BULLISH - because it is more ammunition for the Fed to do some creative things in two weeks.

By the way, I believe tomorrow's speech will be neutral - leaving it open for interpretation as Bullish or Bearish, depending on your preconceived biases.

Dr. Bernanke wants the decision made two weeks from now, not tomorrow, because he wants the Europeans and the Chinese both to act before the Fed does.

But if autos in August - which I believe is a month skewed to weakness, anyway, because buyers are waiting for new models - does indeed come in light, it is that much fuel to the fire for QE of various creative kinds in September.  

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 15:46 | 2750434 Peak Bagger
Peak Bagger's picture

The real truth . . . the federal government's fleet purchases in early summer were huge from GM (you know, Government Motors).  In addition, using that Enron accounting, GM records revenue when vehicles go into dealorship inventories as well with inventories in many lines being twice normal this summer.   So the return on the 500 million shares of GM stock owned by American taxpayers, probably a loss of at least $30 billion unless GM stock surpasses $53 per share (probably not in our lifetime) although the company may go bankrupt by then.  Obama's strategy was a few months early (from this and his spending habits, do you think he slept through his math classes?) and he will probably now blame George Bush or George Romney (wasn't he the head of General Motors when it was totally successful) or maybe his son.  I'm running out to buy my Volt before it is too late!!!

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 19:18 | 2750979 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

Too bad, too short a time frame ...

 

it's not the auto industry collapse that is on its way ... maybe next year. (Maybe next month.)

 

 

 

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