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More Than Half Of Retailers Miss April Sales Estimates
This is not the way to start a new GDP quarter in which consumer expenditures are supposed to pick up following a weak Q1 GDP driven higher by inventory accumulation and record hot weather. From Bloomberg: "Just over half of the retailers reporting April comp. sales trailed ests., led by misses in department stores and discounters. 11 of 20 cos. reporting April sales fell short of ests.; 4 of 6 dept. stores, 3 of 4 discounters missed." As a reminder, missed expectations means it was worse than expected: something quite stunning in a world where every other data point has hedonic, seasonal or birth/death adjustments.
More details from Bloomberg:
- ROST had biggest upside surprise, 3.8ppts above est.; BONT had widest miss, 4.7ppts below ests.
- 9 cos. beat ests.; 4 of 6 apparel chains beat
- Beats: ARO (1Q), CATO, HOTT (1Q), JWN, LTD, RAD, ROST, SMRT, SSI, TJX, ZUMZ
- Misses: BKE, BONT, COST, FRED, GPS, KSS, M, SKS, TGT, WAG, WTSLA
Full breakdown of forecasts and expectations:
- ARO prelim. 1Q EPS 12c-13c, saw 8c-10c, est. 11c
- BONT prelim. 1Q rev. $640.8m, est. $655.5m
- CATO prelim. 1Q EPS $1.04-$1.09, matches forecast; est. $1.07
- FRED prelim. 1Q EPS 26c-28c, matches forecast; est. 27c
- GPS prelim. 1Q 44c-46c, est. 40c
- HOTT prelim. 1Q EPS 7c-8c vs March forecast 2c-5c, est. 5c; sees 2Q loss-shr 4c-6c, est. loss 5c
- KSS “comfortable” with 1Q EPS view 60c, est. 61c
- LTD 1Q prelim. EPS 38c-40c, saw 35c-40c in Feb., est. 41c; sees May comps. up in low-single digits
- ROST 1Q prelim. EPS 92c-93c, saw 89c-91c; est. 91c
- TJX prelim. 1Q EPS 54c, saw 51c-52c, est. 52c; boosted FY2013 EPS view to $2.26-$2.36, saw $2.25-$2.35 in April, est. $2.32
- WTSLA prelim. 1Q EPS 2c, at low end of 2c-4c prior range; est. 3c
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Only the dumb goyim cattle pay retail.
That's what the 'Nanny'(Fran Drescher) says!!
Its true!
Its fine. It bullish until they all miss...
I love how the entire system of earnings is based on the "educated" guesses of a bunch 24 year old analysts.
I get a real kick out of "analysts" and "consultants" under the age of 30. I have known plenty of them, and it was rare that they had any practical advice to offer aside from accounting gimmicks.
Missing etimates no longer matters...as long as the CEO raises fwd expectations.
Other things that do not matter anymore: parabolic chart tops, masterpiece secular sector tops, PEs, earnings, governance [well, except for Green Mountain...bit of a slip up there], volume, price, innovation, or anything else I may have forgotten to mention.
And even lowered forward guidance is still good news, as that indicates raised hopes for more QE on the Hopium Index!
Yesterday, the Street put in the top on TOL. Today, it looks like CRM gets its near term top.
Parabolic top ticks for all the sheeple....
Can you explain to me why on the Anniversary of the killing of OBL a President would travel to Afghanistan to announce to the American people "4 more years of this!"??? I mean "how about announcing from the nice more reasonable cost place called the White House we're done and outta there"????
It will be a lot more than "four more years".
The empire must keep expanding.
Maybe the empire is feverish and thrashing around.
I dont get how its 'great news' to all these people, didnt they elect Obama to end all wars and bring home all the troops?
yep, and europe is in the right place to keep importing goods for the US...LOL
Makes sense that gold is slipping more this morning.
With all this gestapo manipulated data these days how can anyone ever accurately predict the future?? I wouldnt be surprized if there were a lot more misses.
"this President will sign off on any war you want." what else you got?
Under Obamunism, Ignorance is Strength, War is Peace Prize.
But, but . . . everyone has jobs!!!
Debt saturation, bitchez!!!!
Relax. Bob Piss-on-me has the explanation: "There was cold weather at the end of April....and the YOY comps were really tough."
Typicall.
real disposable income per capital hasn't increase. It's a huge constraint line for households continuing to deleverage, and a horrible job market.
Anecdotely, I'm hear more stories of ppl dipping into their 401K just to get by.
No worry the bots will trade on any bullish headlines. Just keep the hype and headlines in the news coming.
Any bad news can be re-written so the headline reads positive so the market rallys.
The bigger the equity bubble blows the better.
There is plenty of Bernanke/Fed excess liquidity to pump up the stock market to one remarkable bubble. Were else is the money going to go?
Inflate this equity bubble up until it takes all the money. Bernanke and the Fed will print more to keep the game going.
Bernanke and the Fed will QE/devalue untl all faith is lost in the US dollar.
Bot traded news on bot generated news...
Which makes eventual collapse inevitable.
DavidC
So now the ISM missed.....WTF
Theyre resorting to pure 'baffle em with bullshit' economic model now.
Don't tell that to Whole Foods, with comps up 9%. Whether that justifies a PE of 40 is another matter, but with Ben at the helm any growth is priceless, right?
I'm honestly confused here. Isn't an estimate the best expectation, around which one would expect a bell curve probability distribution, in which case one should always expect about half of estimates to miss (and half to beat)? If so, how is this even remotely news? Similarly, when ZH claimed to be 'half right' on jobs data, doesn't that mean they were about as right as one would expect by random chance?
Do ZH authors grasp basic probability and statistics?
No
Take a look at those "estimates".....I don't think anything on the street is following a normal distibution these days (more likely one with really long fucking tails). Are you intimating that Wall St. magically takes all the "estimates" and then builds a standard normal distribution where the consensus reflects some constructed mean? Hahahahahahahah.....Are you fucking nuts? Do you think retail analysts or the people at Bloomberg that compile the estiamtes can ADD OR SUBTRACT??? I MEAN YOU NO DISRESPECT BUT PLEASE BOTH YOU AND ZERO HEDGE LOOK INTO THIS RETAIL COMPS PROCESS. IT IS SUCH A FUCKING JOKE YOU WONT EVEN BELIEVE IT. NO ONE ON WALL ST. REALLY KNOWS WHAT IT IS AND THE WAY THEY ARRIVE AT THESE NUMBERS CAN ONLY BE APPROXIMATED BY A DOG TAKING A SHIT AND CONVERTING THE FECAL MATTER INTO AN "ESTIMATE." I WOULD LOVE TO SEE A WEEKLY PIECE ON THESE NUMBERS.
Hi there. I don't know about any of that, nor do I care. My only point is that if the estimate claims to be equivalent to mathematical expectation, the least interesting possible outcome is for 50% of them to 'miss'. To claim otherwise is to be engaged in a degree of 'spin' that would make Fox News or Daily Kos blush. So, yea - bravo, Zero Hedge!
Now let me get this straight you don't know or care about how the numbers are arrived at or why they exist for that matter, but you do have an opinion about their outcome and whether this aforementioned outcome is "interesting" relative to your expectations (which are based on the inklings of a very low-evel primate) Basically, what you are telling me is that you have some vague emotional attachment to numbers that have no real meaning to you. You like outcomes that defy probability I guess. The only problem here is YOU HAVE NO FUCKING IDEA WHAT OR HOW THESE PROBABILITIES ARE ACTUALLY CONSTRUCTED? Do you understand how fucking stupid that is? The comps could be extremely aberrant but you wouldn't know because you read something about expected value and bayes' theorem for 10 minutes. Here is what you need to understand with all these Wall St. and your own woefully misguided calculations/interpretations: GARBAGE IN GARBAGE OUT.
Let me break it down for you. I don't care about the numbers, full stop. I am commnting only on ZH's interpretation of the numbers which, allthough very silly if they are genuine, is even more ridiculous if the numbers are meaningless as you assert. If you're right, you have only strengthened my point, but as I said I neither know or care whether you are correct.
So, please enlighten me as to why I am 'fucking stupid' (how rude!) and, if you like, explain why you believe my mathematical background consists of 10 minutes of research. I await with bated breath.
If you don't care why are you commenting?? Moreover, if you don't know how something is calculated THEN HOW THE FUCK can you then presume to understand what a normal outcome is? Maybe math isn't your problem but rather logic.
Man, I didn't think I was going to have to get any simpler than that, but if you insist...
I care about the interpretation of the numbers, which is why I commented. The intepretation is flawed if the numbers are calculated legitimately, as I pointed out. If the numbers are illegitimate, the interpretation is even sillier because the miss rate will be arbitrary (so why bother interpreting it at all, particularly if the result is so boring?).
As it happens, ZH went with an interpretation that concedes a good deal of legitimacy to the numbers and attempted to spin it as a bleak outcome when it really would be an expected outcome. That was stupid. I pointed out that it was stupid. I must say, though, you have really outdone them. Congratulations, sir.
The Millennials are into " clothing swaps " .......bartering is the new trend for this age group comfortable with Craigslist and e-bay.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-03/apparel-swapping-millennials-eschew-stores-and-malls.html
This is encouraging for liberty and free markets, but not the current setup. But at least people are starting to ignore marketing a bit more, maybe because they are so bombarded with it (and they also can't afford the products).
Basically, the consumer "bailout" is ending via retailers, esp for clothes (and soon electronics, however the pace of those prodicts improving actually deflates older inventory to make it more affordable).
A consumer osmosis has to happen for this economy to realize it is heading in the wrong direction. When it does, then we hit reality. Especially if the government passes a law that bans sharing. First it will be music files. Then clothes. And information will be last.
Reality isn't optional. Even for central planners.
savings rate of 3.8 .. 37% prior month... first time for 2 months in a row, the savings rate below 4% since Dec of 2007/January 2008 or the start of this great recession.
we find out today wages sucked and productivity sucked so that does not bold well for both spending AND inflation since we now suck at running our economy more efficiently...after spending $5 trillion in stimulus.
Quite.
DavidC
Bullish for dollar stores
Targets missed. That's great news. Markets should climb another 10%. Considering the indexes are up almost 20% since December 2011, the markets should be up by 60% by Christmas.
What a gong show.
http://bullandbearmash.com/index/sp-500/daily/
SP500 still showing bearish elliott wave count.
Not to worry Linked In reports after the bell. The stock is up over 70% since Jan 1 and trades at a P/E of 980, BUT THATS CHEAP!!!! Remember growth at all costs, profit doesn't matter.
This is a bit of a stumper for me. It's fairly obvious that unless Linked beats by 20% or more the stock should sell off since expectations after a 70% rise should be enourmous, but full retard market.
Yes, Linked really is back above $100 if you can believe it.
The market must be borrowing Obama capaign slogans:
BELIEVE
FORWARD
HOPE
I WON'T STEAL YOUR MONEY, I PROMISE
REITS at 52 week highs. You can't make this shit up.
It is strange. Almost all economic indicators are dropping, 4 week moving average of jobless claims is rising, Bloomberg claims retail sales declines on .... Easter.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/03/4-week-average-of-initial-rises-ism-manufacturing-falls-economy-weakens/
ZERO HEDGE PLEASE LOOK INTO HOW THESE "ANALYSTS" ARRIVE AT THESE COMP "ESTIMATES" AND THEN COMPARE ONE "ANALYST'S" EXPECTATIONS TO ANOTHER. RETAIL ANALYSTS ARE SOME OF THE MOST ARBITRARY AND IDIOTIC NUMSKULL FUCKS ON THE ST. (and that's saying something). WHAT I'M SAYING IS THAT RETAIL ANALYSTS GET APAID HUNDREDS OF G'S TO MULTIPLY A COLUMN IN EXCEL EVERY MONTH OR MAYBE ANALYZE SOME GENERIC CREDIT CARD DATA. THIS MONEY COULD BE USED TO HAVE WEEKLY ZERO HEDGE PARTIES WITH EASTERN EUROPEAN GIRLS AND NICE SCOTCH.
wow, big misses...
SPX is crashing way back to...oh wait, nevermind...here comes 1400 again.
different day, more bad news, more Fed ponzi players running the show. f'ing bullshit.
Made in The Great Wal Mart of China, where fascism rules, Executive and Supreme Court ''organized'' toture and death is law, and the company robot has personhood.
...and life liberty freedom independence and justice for all has been aborted for the sake of those whom refuse to put their own image in the womb, where their future home is ...in the black hole. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-o4-9toOBEI