More Jobless Stagflation: CPI +0.5% On Expectations Of 0.2%, Jobless Claims Back Comfortably In +400K Territory
Following yesterday's upside surprise in the PPI, it was only logical that CPI would come higher than expected. However, printing at a 0.7% swing M/M, or the highest in years, was not expected. Broad CPI came at 0.5% in July after dropping -0.2% in June, or 3.6% Y/Y. This was far more than consensus which expected 0.2%. Core CPI however was in line with expectations at 0.2%. The reason for the surge? Gas, food and clothes. "The gasoline index rebounded from previous declines and rose sharply in July, accounting for about half of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The food at home index accelerated in July and also contributed to the increase, as dairy and fruit indexes posted notable increases and five of the six major grocery store food groups rose...The apparel index continued to rise sharply, increasing 1.2 percent in July; it has increased 3.9 percent over the past three months....The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 0.9 percent in July as the coffee index continued to rise sharply." Elsewhere confirming that as expected the unemployment situation is deterorating, with 408K initial claims printing, on expectations of 400K, and making sure we dont have a revised 19 out of19 week of consecutive 400K+ prints was last week's revised 395K claims to, hold on to your seats, 399K. That's right: a 1K in jobs breaks the trend, huzzah! Just as importantly, those on EUCs and Extended benefits continued to plunge, dropping by 43K in the last week. And most frightening, the one year change in Americans receiving Emergency Compensation (EUC) has plunged from 4.7 Million to 3.1 Million. That's 1.6 million Americans who no longer even collect any benefits from the government.
Additionally, continuing claims also missed expectations of 3700K printing at 3702K. As for the prior revision, well we all know the direction of the prior week revision.
Going back to the inflation data, here is the breakdown from the BLS:
The food index rose 0.4 percent in July after rising 0.2 percent in June. The cereals and bakery products index fell 0.1 percent in July; the other five major grocery store food groups all increased. The dairy and related products index, which rose 0.5 percent in June, increased 1.2 percent in July. The fruits and vegetables index also rose 1.2 percent as the index for fresh fruits rose 3.7 percent. The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 0.9 percent in July as the coffee index continued to rise sharply, while the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 0.5 percent and the index for other food at home advanced 0.3 percent. The index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in July after rising 0.3 percent in June. Over the past 12 months, the food index has risen 4.2 percent with the food at home index up 5.4 percent. All major grocery store food group indexes have risen over the past year; the increases ranged from 3.5 percent (other food at home) to 7.9 percent (dairy and related products).
The energy index, which declined in May and June, increased 2.8 percent in July. The gasoline index, down 6.8 percent in June, rose 4.7 percent in July. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 1.5 percent in July.) Over the past 12 months, the gasoline index has increased 33.6 percent. The household energy index also turned up in July, rising 0.2 percent after a 1.2 percent decline in June. The electricity index, which declined in June, rose 0.8 percent and more than offset a 1.7 percent decline in the index for fuel oil and a 1.2 percent decrease in the natural gas index. The household energy index has risen 2.7 percent over the last 12 months, with the fuel oil index up 37.2 percent and the electricity index up 2.0 percent but the index for natural gas down 2.8 percent.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in July after increasing 0.3 percent in both May and June. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent in July, its largest increase since June 2008. The indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent both rose 0.3 percent, while the lodging away from home index increased 0.9 percent. The index for medical care rose 0.2 percent, with the medical care services index rising 0.3 percent while the index for medical care commodities was unchanged. The apparel index continued to rise sharply, increasing 1.2 percent in July; it has increased 3.9 percent over the past three months. The index for used cars and trucks also continued to rise, increasing 0.7 percent in July, and the airline fare index turned up, rising 0.1 percent after falling in May and June. The tobacco index rose as well; its 0.5 percent July increase was its largest of the year. However, the index for new vehicles was unchanged in July after rising at least 0.6 percent in each of the last five months. The indexes for personal care and household furnishings and operations were also unchanged in July, while the index for recreation fell 0.1 percent.
The 12 month change in the index for all items less food and energy reached 1.8 percent in July, continuing its steady rise from the October 2010 low point of 0.6 percent. Most of its major component indexes have risen more quickly in 2011 than they did in late 2010. The 12 month change in the shelter index, which was negative as recently as October 2010, reached 1.4 percent in July. The apparel index has now increased 3.1 percent over the last 12 months, its largest 12 month increase since July 1992.
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