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More Jobless Stagflation: CPI +0.5% On Expectations Of 0.2%, Jobless Claims Back Comfortably In +400K Territory

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following yesterday's upside surprise in the PPI, it was only logical that CPI would come higher than expected. However, printing at a 0.7% swing M/M, or the highest in years, was not expected. Broad CPI came at 0.5% in July after dropping -0.2% in June, or 3.6% Y/Y. This was far more than consensus which expected 0.2%. Core CPI however was in line with expectations at 0.2%. The reason for the surge? Gas, food and clothes. "The gasoline index rebounded from previous declines and rose sharply in July, accounting for about half of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The food at home index accelerated in July and also contributed to the increase, as dairy and fruit indexes posted notable increases and five of the six major grocery store food groups rose...The apparel index continued to rise sharply, increasing 1.2 percent in July; it has increased 3.9 percent over the past three months....The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 0.9 percent in July as the coffee index continued to rise sharply." Elsewhere confirming that as expected the unemployment situation is deterorating, with 408K initial claims printing, on expectations of 400K, and making sure we dont have a revised 19 out of19 week of consecutive 400K+ prints was last week's revised 395K claims to, hold on to your seats, 399K.  That's right: a 1K in jobs breaks the trend, huzzah! Just as importantly, those on EUCs and Extended benefits continued to plunge, dropping by 43K in the last week. And most frightening, the one year change in Americans receiving Emergency Compensation (EUC) has plunged from 4.7 Million to 3.1 Million. That's 1.6 million Americans who no longer even collect any benefits from the government.

Additionally, continuing claims also missed expectations of 3700K printing at 3702K. As for the prior revision, well we all know the direction of the prior week revision.

Going back to the inflation data, here is the breakdown from the BLS:

Food

The food index rose 0.4 percent in July after rising 0.2 percent in June. The cereals and bakery products index fell 0.1 percent in July; the other five major grocery store food groups all increased. The dairy and related products index, which rose 0.5 percent in June, increased 1.2 percent in July. The fruits and vegetables index also rose 1.2 percent as the index for fresh fruits rose 3.7 percent. The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 0.9 percent in July as the coffee index continued to rise sharply, while the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 0.5 percent and the index for other food at home advanced 0.3 percent. The index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in July after rising 0.3 percent in June. Over the past 12 months, the food index has risen 4.2 percent with the food at home index up 5.4 percent. All major grocery store food group indexes have risen over the past year; the increases ranged from 3.5 percent (other food at home) to 7.9 percent (dairy and related products).

Energy

The energy index, which declined in May and June, increased 2.8 percent in July. The gasoline index, down 6.8 percent in June, rose 4.7 percent in July. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 1.5 percent in July.) Over the past 12 months, the gasoline index has increased 33.6 percent. The household energy index also turned up in July, rising 0.2 percent after a 1.2 percent decline in June. The electricity index, which declined in June, rose 0.8 percent and more than offset a 1.7 percent decline in the index for fuel oil and a 1.2 percent decrease in the natural gas index. The household energy index has risen 2.7 percent over the last 12 months, with the fuel oil index up 37.2 percent and the electricity index up 2.0 percent but the index for natural gas down 2.8 percent.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in July after increasing 0.3 percent in both May and June. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent in July, its largest increase since June 2008. The indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent both rose 0.3 percent, while the lodging away from home index increased 0.9 percent. The index for medical care rose 0.2 percent, with the medical care services index rising 0.3 percent while the index for medical care commodities was unchanged. The apparel index continued to rise sharply, increasing 1.2 percent in July; it has increased 3.9 percent over the past three months. The index for used cars and trucks also continued to rise, increasing 0.7 percent in July, and the airline fare index turned up, rising 0.1 percent after falling in May and June. The tobacco index rose as well; its 0.5 percent July increase was its largest of the year. However, the index for new vehicles was unchanged in July after rising at least 0.6 percent in each of the last five months. The indexes for personal care and household furnishings and operations were also unchanged in July, while the index for recreation fell 0.1 percent.

The 12 month change in the index for all items less food and energy reached 1.8 percent in July, continuing its steady rise from the October 2010 low point of 0.6 percent. Most of its major component indexes have risen more quickly in 2011 than they did in late 2010. The 12 month change in the shelter index, which was negative as recently as October 2010, reached 1.4 percent in July. The apparel index has now increased 3.1 percent over the last 12 months, its largest 12 month increase since July 1992.

 

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Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:43 | 1572115 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Welcome to the recovery by Tim Geithner

LMFAO

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:45 | 1572123 Shocker
Shocker's picture

This is a recovery... hahah, wow i want to go back to the depression I suppose.

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

 

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Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:47 | 1572128 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Recovery, yes we can. Obama wants another stimulus!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:47 | 1572129 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

CPI is backwards looking. Bonds are up on the news.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:47 | 1572130 Steelpulse
Steelpulse's picture

Now, now...a revision to 399K? That is a rigged number if I ever saw one! Unbelievable!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:53 | 1572149 lead salad
lead salad's picture

My thoughts exactly.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:01 | 1572190 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

What number isn't rigged by these gangsters?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:48 | 1572133 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Anyone want to make a side bet that the market recovers right around 1:00 and closes up?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:02 | 1572162 pettolicious
pettolicious's picture

I'm your huckleberry...Count me in on the other side of that trade.   I believe we dive deeper into the close and finish at or near the lows of the day.  Got to prep the stage for the Bernank.  Need more fear.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:08 | 1572241 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I can see that.  But, I also wouldn't be surprised to have another (for the Nth time) inexplicable 'rally' as well.  That's the problem with trying to predict a pre-scripted event wtihout the script as reference.

They're already reversing some the pre-market losses on XLF and IYR.  That tells me they are totally letting go...just yet.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:01 | 1572196 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

How much?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:05 | 1572223 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

How much you got?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:49 | 1572135 Catullus
Catullus's picture

But But But But. Paul Krugman told me that inflation wasn't the problem. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:53 | 1572153 Quintus
Quintus's picture

No.  On planet Krugman, the main problem is that there simply isn't enough War going on to stimulate the economy.

Sure, some brown people might have to be killed, and a few countries reduced to rubble, but just think of the economic benefits!

What a loon.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:03 | 1572207 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Krugman as Warmonger.  Who'da thunk it?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:04 | 1572216 Catullus
Catullus's picture

I never got the answer to .. if the space aliens invade and build more pyramids, is that inflationary or deflationary? HAHA

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:51 | 1572143 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Three more months of this great recovery, we will all be in bread lines. Ata boy O.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:52 | 1572145 Karl Tashjian
Karl Tashjian's picture

Everything is getting more expensive.

Quick Bernank! Print some more money so we can pay for everything!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:53 | 1572150 KnightsofNee
KnightsofNee's picture

Hot off the presses! US Government admits that an alien fleet is headed towards earth! Their purpose, To Serve Man!

This news should be bullish for stocks. Buy the dip today bitchezs!

Wow, Krugman was right! Go figure.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:02 | 1572202 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Who wants to volunteer to be an hors d'ouevre?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:06 | 1572227 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

finally buyers for our debt

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:53 | 1572152 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Weren't we just arguing yesterday about food prices going up or not?  I buy at least $200 worth of grocies a week, often more, for several years.  I don't need any single dude opionions that groceries aren't going up just because your stupid ass can live on top ramen.  They're going up, end of the story.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:00 | 1572180 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I have had productive acerage with peaches, pears, and pecan trees on it.  Looking back to 2001 prices, the prices I have been getting on the market for these items is up over 50% for the pears and peaches, it is up over 120% on the pecans.  Apparently the asians really do like their nuts.  Wages flat, profits up, any questions?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:56 | 1572158 Sambo
Sambo's picture

Stagflation it is. What is the real jobless rate? 25% ?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:01 | 1572189 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Shadowstats U6 is ~22.5%

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:06 | 1572233 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Yup! Almost posted the exact same thing.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:08 | 1572242 Sambo
Sambo's picture

Thanks. I was off by 2.5 percentage points...not bad for a wild Thu morning guess.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:57 | 1572160 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Transitory bitchez.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:58 | 1572170 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Of course with 5 dogs and 6 cats the first cart to roll thru the aisle has all their stuff then comes mine........hot dogs oats and rice. LMAO.  No, it's not really that bad but my wifes little animal shelter is coming to a screeching halt.  She doesn't understand why I flew off the handle when I went to my mancave the other night and found 3 kittens in there.  Not that I don't feel sorry for them I said, but we've done all we can do.  And of course none of them have been fixed or have had shots.  I told her start a shelter for baby pigs, at least we can eat them later!!  Of course raising a single pig or two isn't worth it.  Not unless you have a source of cheap food.  If not your $200 pig will eat up $1000 worth of food before it's worth making bacon out of.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:04 | 1572637 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Try raising meat rabbits.  Very inexpensive and very productive as well great quality meat.

10 Rabbits will produce 6 pounds of meat on the same feed and water as a cow will produce 1 pound of meat on the same feed and water.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:58 | 1572172 SirIssacNewton
SirIssacNewton's picture

That's 1.6 million Americans who no longer even collect any benefits from the government.

Those Americans......that's 1.6 million people, most likely 99ers at the end of their benefits, looking into the abyss of no jobs and a country, a Congress and a President that have failed to do anything other than bail out their buddies.

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:02 | 1572197 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Sounds like we all need to get off our ass and do something about it.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:13 | 1572281 SirIssacNewton
SirIssacNewton's picture

Agreed...... It's time for the rise of a viable Third Political Party.  The time for hocum is over.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:47 | 1572522 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

If Ron Paul can't get air time, then no third party is going to be able to. Will need to be a smart strategy to work.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:58 | 1572173 Racer
Racer's picture

Nice work getting the economy back on it's feet eh ChairSatan!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:59 | 1572178 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Boomjuice, (coffee) beans, and boxers!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:59 | 1572181 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

Lopsided male bovine fecal material! If the Fed is not allowed to use fuel and food as part of calculating inflation they should not be using them to calculate the broad CPI!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:01 | 1572192 gulf breeze
gulf breeze's picture

Paging Robo.  We need market direction

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:03 | 1572208 warchopper
warchopper's picture

How can it be, how can it BE? Someone in the government needs to be fired. This is not consistent with our current propaganda policy.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:08 | 1572244 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Hey guys...what did i miss?  Something going on here?  Is there news about the recovery??  Did someone mention Krugman?  I love him dont you?  Boy things are really looking up aren't they?  Should we start a club?  What about "The Dead Hopium Society"  for the name?  do you think we could get Geitner to join?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:10 | 1572257 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

The revised last-week print was actually 399,499.4.  The .4 was a seeing-eye dog of a blind guy...

Ponzi on, Garth.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:32 | 1572406 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Ponzi on Wade...cool

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:52 | 1572560 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Garth has a cold.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 15:19 | 1574117 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

LOL!  Took me a while to get that subtlety - brilliant!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:14 | 1572287 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

QE3 in doubt again. The biflation checkmate. 

And by the way, this is not stagflation. No stag at all, we're contracting. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:24 | 1572338 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

"That's 1.6 million Americans who no longer even collect any benefits from the government."

That's only true for unemployment compensation.

The unemployed and indigent may still receive AFDC, Food Stamps, etc.  The costs also may shift from the federal government to state and local governments in such forms as city welfare and homeless shelters.

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 09:53 | 1572558 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

Damn sad. I look at those black and white pictures from the Great Depression - many taken by photographers directly employed by FDR through the WPA - and think that its going to be much worse over the next 2 or 3 years.

While the top 1% sail on by comfortably ignoring it all as long as we let them.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:39 | 1572915 Doyle Hargraves
Doyle Hargraves's picture

The great correction continues, long gold and ammo Bitchez!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:45 | 1573270 GCT
GCT's picture

I could not believe my eyes when the local TV station I was watching before I headed to work stated the reason for the increase in the CPI was due to, hold on and do nto laugh too hard!

Tobacco, beer and wine prices.  I spit my coffee out from laughing so hard.  Whats ever worse people will probably believe this crap!

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