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More Leaked Greece Details: Downside Case Sees Funding Needs Soar From €136 Billion To €245 Billion

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The FT's Peter Spiegel has scoped up some additional details from the 10 page debt sustainability analysis that is at the basis of the latest Greek bailout talks. Some of the critical details:

  • "even under the most optimistic scenario, the austerity measures being imposed on Athens risk a recession so deep that Greece will not be able to climb out of the debt hole over the course of the new €170bn bail-out."
  • A German-led group of creditor countries – including the Netherlands and Finland – has expressed extreme reluctance since they received the report about the advisability of allowing the second rescue to go through.
  • A “tailored downside scenario” prepared for eurozone leaders in the report suggests Greek debt could fall far more slowly than hoped, to only 160 per cent of economic output by 2020 – far below the target of 120 per cent set by the International Monetary Fund
    • Under such a scenario, Greece would need about €245bn in bail-out aid, nearly twice the €136bn under the “baseline” projections.
  • “Prolonged financial support on appropriate terms by the official sector may be necessary,” the report said, a clear reference to the possibility that bail-out funds may be needed indefinitely.
  • Even in best case scenario country will need at least €50 billion on top of €136 billion.
  • A recapitalisation of the Greek banking sector, which originally was projected to cost €30bn, will now cost €50bn. A highly touted Greek privatisation plan, which originally hoped to raise €50bn, will now be delayed by five years and bring in only €30bn by the end of the decade.

Translated, this is yet another confirmation of what we have claimed all along - that Germany is no longer playing along.

 

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Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:24 | 2179006 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Oooo pa

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:26 | 2179014 jcia
jcia's picture

Sick and tired of the Greece 'news'. Although, I have to say... I want a gyro right about now.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:29 | 2179030 phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

Why do they continue to lie?

Why don;t they simply come out and say what everyone else already knows...

They have no fucking idea how much it'll cost to bail Greece out. 

 

 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:50 | 2179115 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Don't worry, everybody.  Benny will come to the rescue in 3..2..1...

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:09 | 2179180 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bernanke?  He is priced in.  Priced into a rock and a hard place.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:16 | 2179204 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

I'm afraid to say anything in fear of getting detained or assassinated.  It'd be a bummer, too, because the economy's really starting to pick up and I don't want to miss the good times.  /sarc off

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:16 | 2179207 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Ich Bin Ein Benign!

 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:19 | 2179322 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Let's see: debt + more debt = ?

a fuking 4 year old could work this one out

Politicians & Bankers : the village idiots of society for thousands of years

..let them struggle on

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:33 | 2179373 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Unfortunately, they don't struggle at all. If they were truly struggling, they might actually come up with a solution. Instead, they just slowly pile more and more of the burden on the back of the productive in society.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:52 | 2179434 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"10 page debt sustainability analysis "

That's the ticket to prosperity.. sustainable debt.

Even if the model is right, the paradigm is wrong.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 22:08 | 2179476 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

WonderDawg  -  i'm watching students protesting in Valencia on Spanish TV at the mo ...they're wearing jeans and jackets while the State Police are dressed like Judge Dredd and beating some of them up with big battons. It's only a matter of time before the Police claim one of them has been 'injured' by these unarmed kids, or "rioters" as the State will call them

Anyway if this is what it's like before Spain goes tits up (and Greece before it institutes austerity on the still fattened bloated 50 stone pig that is the Greek Govt) then God help us when the real fireworks start!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 22:14 | 2179491 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

ZeeGee, I think it is going to get very ugly, in Europe and ultimately in the US. All this focus on Greece and Europe has taken our eyes off Japan, and China, as well. Then there's MENA. Everywhere you look, it's fucked up. The hostile mood is building, and when it reaches a crescendo, all hell is going to break loose. But maybe that's just me and my sunny outlook.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 22:37 | 2179508 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

maybe "all hell breaking loose' is not to be feared (rioters don't go for Joe Public) but is societies antidote for ridding the cancer (that is Govt)

it's our way of saying we've had enough, time for Regime Change

this is an opportunity not to be missed if it can be used eradicate the sewer that is Govt and its behind the scenes monopolists

public sector workers are afterall kicking off against the public sector Chiefs. Maybe the penny will drop the private sector is where productivity/wealth comes from and it was Govt all along conning them with false promises of the Holy Land

Fingers crossed

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:55 | 2179444 flacon
flacon's picture

Keynes would say:

debt + more debt = higher GDP. 

 

Q.E.D. (problem solved)



Mon, 02/20/2012 - 22:16 | 2179494 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Keynes did his job as a hired Govt consultant (crone) and underlined the political policy he was hired to underline

as a very sound stock investor he'd easily recognise the stupidity of a company deeply in debt not trying to solve the issue of high debt and low growth/profitability by digging itself even more in debt

I doubt even Larry Summers believes privately half the total shit he's hired to talk in public  

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 22:57 | 2179605 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

If I met Summers in public, I would take a run at him and land my fist on his jaw and hopefully break it! If it did not break, I would find the nearest physical object to crack his jaw again until it broke!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:51 | 2179118 CClarity
CClarity's picture

As has been stated many times, and not just pertinent to the Greek situation . . . the longer this takes, the more it will cost.  Cost in financial term, cost in personal pain, cost in more and more limited options.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:00 | 2179300 john39
john39's picture

seems like a pretty big assumption that "fixing" the situation was ever the goal.   most likely, the opposite is true.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 00:40 | 2179976 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

There is no "fixing" it, unless you mean wiping it clean and starting with a new system.

The goal has always been to kick the can.  That's all they have.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:53 | 2179128 Vaiman
Vaiman's picture

That's what I'm wondering!  When will the market wake up and get wise to bloomberg's bullshit and reuter's one sided ranting?  None of the stuff being shared on zero hedge even shows up there.  No real picture scenario. 

Here's bloomberg's headline!

Greece Moves Toward Second Bailout

 

Here's reuters headlines!

Second Greek bailout in reach, funding gap narrows

Maybe they actually believe this will be solved one way or the other....even if by force.  It seems the public protests are doing nothing to sway the determination of the governments to sell out the country to the banks and the Euro.

 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:20 | 2179339 The Fonz...befo...
The Fonz...before shark jump's picture

"Maybe they actually believe this will be solved one way or the other....even if by force."

No....they are HOPING

The only thing that 245 billion euros is going to buy is just a little more time.....

And time....is becoming more expensive after each funding round....

Let's just get Greece over with... So we can begin another long road with Portugal...

Perhaps they want the market to become numb to all this because after Greece the real unwind begins..

Portugal
Ireland
Italy
Spain
France
Germany
Uk
USA

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:07 | 2179135 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I am openly endorsing 'The Krugman Plan,' right here and now, bitchez.

The ECB should print 17 trillion to 26 trillion and use it to pay off PIIGS+France current debt (the debt that shows up on the cooked books - the actual debt, just as in the UK and US, is many, many multiples higher), which will leave a few trillion € left over to fund the government sector and political class of these debt fiefdoms for the next 1 1/2 to 2 years.

Then, they can repeat this process every few years.

On top of that, have the ECB be the buyer of last resort on all future bonds issued by PIIGS+France, at the lowest possible yield.

What could possibly go wrong?

If Krugman says imposing austerity would be akin to withholdng heroine and/or methadone from a junky in withdrawal, and that you double the dose of heroine and/or methadone, don't argue.

Fixing the fundamental flaws that led to the current situation is not the critical or even an important thing.

Kicking the can while debasing living standards is the important thing.

How hard is this shit?

You all flunk Kruganomics 101.

 

 

"By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some.... As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.”

There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

J.M. Keynes on inflation in The Economic Consequences of the Peace (p. 235-6)

 

"As the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive members of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy's books are finally balanced, one finds that this loss in value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government bonds financed by bank credit expansion.

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard."

Alan Greenspan
written in 1966

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:07 | 2179171 wiser
wiser's picture

i second that.... Greece the 51st US state

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:09 | 2179179 agent default
agent default's picture

I've got  a better one.  The Central Banks should give every household a printing press.  All problems solved.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:55 | 2179291 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Krugman wrote a letter to The Bernank urging him to prod congress & the POTUS to pass legislation funding installation of Federal Reserve Note dispensing ATMs in all households.

That would lead to the greatest economic expansion in human history according to Krugman.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:30 | 2179365 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

This Greenspan guy sounds pretty badass.  What is he up to nowadays?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 00:42 | 2179983 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Hoping that if he lives long enough to go through the collapse, that everyone will believe him when he says "I did it on purpose so we would have to start a new system!".

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:12 | 2179189 atomic180
atomic180's picture

Add a -0- maybe -00-

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:27 | 2179236 TrulyBelieving
TrulyBelieving's picture

It'll be interesting to see how much more the banks will loan them. Looks like they haven't got much else to loan and Greece can't borrow much more because all wealth for years  is already spent. The question is, will Greece allow itself to become a serf territory or will it throw off this debt with default and then fight itself to become free?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:43 | 2179266 He_Who Carried ...
He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

If I had to pay my taxes in Germany,

I'd ask very tough questions about whether

they're putting my kids on the hook

for this "bottomless pit" !! 

Let them corrupt goat herders go, PLEASE !!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:44 | 2179411 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

I know, the cost keep going up and up and Germany is saying let them default now.  There is no way that Greece can increase there GDP with the economy in the country the way it is and most people in the poor house.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:26 | 2179355 King_Julian
King_Julian's picture

In support of Greece I used Kalamata olives on my nachos tonight. Unfortunately, just noticed they were made in Napa. Close enough.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:33 | 2179043 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Quote from Zorba the Greek: I felt once more how simple a thing is happiness: a glass of wine, a roast chestnut, a wretched little brazier, the sound of the sea. Nothing else. And all that is required to feel that here and now is happiness is a simple, frugal heart. 

 

Greece meet frugal.  Frugal meet Greece.  May you live long and be prosperous.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:41 | 2179077 Banksters
Banksters's picture

Double down, bitchezzzz.    Go big or go home, signed 

The PEOPLE OF GREECE!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:12 | 2179190 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

Exactly....this is all just gamesmanship to compel the US to pony up more to the IMF and continue printing.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:46 | 2179101 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Hey Ty can we claim a Greece extro default in a specified timeframe? Cause we been claiming this shit for quite some time, and yet there float the hopium on top of the optimismo crackle ad infinitum it seems...

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:01 | 2179152 LongSoupLine
Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:39 | 2179257 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I've noticed a glitch in the Matrix lately, though.  I like to keep up on pop culture because I like to make sure I can mock it, and so I read Yahoo headlines every few days.  Today, trending with Brittney and Whitney and Clitney and a bunch of other bozos, was....Rob Paul.  I have seen gold prices on there a lot lately, too. 

So it looks like the splinter in the status quo's mind is starti ng to itch, a lil' bit.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:49 | 2179278 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Rob Paul...lol.

...and when they get Obama's name wrong, there's an all-out 3-day NAACP media blitz lead by AL Sharpton...go figure.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:52 | 2179286 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Woops, meant Ron.  But yeah, can't mess with Darkness.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:24 | 2179007 knukles
knukles's picture

LOL
Oh fuck.
Not again.....

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:24 | 2179008 gekkobear
gekkobear's picture

$TVIX Long

 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:34 | 2179045 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Pshaw, c'mon, it's priced in.  Priced in bullishly!  DJ 14k in no time.  No time!!!!!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:52 | 2179124 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Methinks you're being too bearish.  Just look around you, Hendrix.  Our economy is BOOMING!  

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:45 | 2179270 navy62802
navy62802's picture

DJIA 16K no time. Record highs.

Meanwhile, we'll be paying $6 for a gallon of gas and $7 for a gallon of milk in the US. But fuck yeah!! The DOW will be going THROUGH THE ROOF!!!!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:27 | 2179011 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Please cover the eyes of children and women of delicate sensibilities. Emperor is naked.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:25 | 2179012 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

$245B..is that all?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:31 | 2179034 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

just transitory

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:37 | 2179039 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

 

There is only one course of action.

Whoever prepared that sustainability analysis will be accused of rape by a maid at the hotel where he is staying.  He'll be removed from his analysis position and replaced by someone who predicts different, more palatable numbers.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:14 | 2179199 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

It is a lady.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:40 | 2179397 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Kinky.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:36 | 2179057 noses
noses's picture

Not if the rest of the world is going to pay. That's the usual tactic of extortionists. Or should this be called "racketeering"?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:52 | 2179436 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Shit, I,ve got that much on me.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:25 | 2179013 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The writers of the sustsainability report want more concessions from central banks.  The political goal is clear.  

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:26 | 2179017 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

Sell-off Bitchezzz!!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:27 | 2179019 Bill D. Cat
Bill D. Cat's picture

Pony up assholes . Ink is cheap .

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:27 | 2179021 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Okay, I don't get it. The Dutch and Finns (and Germans) didn't know about this report until now???

Bullshit !!!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:29 | 2179024 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

They have to pretend, so they can have a few more days to think about it.  Just a few more days....

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:31 | 2179037 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Why would they then risk upsetting their precious markets by delaying when clearly EVERYONE is/was expecting an announcement tonight?

There's more that meets the eye here....

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:35 | 2179053 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Everyone has been expecting an announcement for months!  You think one more delay will derail everyone's hopes of a bailout?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:51 | 2179119 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Yes.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:43 | 2179404 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Sorry, I wish it were true, but people are numb to this shit, and the markets don't give a damn either way, HFTs and PPTs will propel the no volume markets higher.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:39 | 2179066 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Exactly...Is this a new report just today???/

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:28 | 2179023 Bill D. Cat
Bill D. Cat's picture

Germany's pimp hand is strong .

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:29 | 2179029 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Powdah!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:30 | 2179033 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

LOL

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:28 | 2179026 chump666
chump666's picture

C'mon you balless fools.  Get your Drachma back devalue and create the tourism industry that will be the biggest in EZ.  You will come out of the crisis quicker and not look back.  Yes, like Iceland.

Or, Holland will push for a Troika base camp/occupy Athens (permanently).  You want that?  Grow balls.  And stick it to the idiots and the ECB/IMF and EU.

Or Athens will burn again, again, again...

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:41 | 2179083 riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

drachma=hyperinflation 3 years tops

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:55 | 2179137 chump666
chump666's picture

Where Greece is now in a greater depression.  Nah, that could manage it.  What is worst is the ECB/central banks make oil bid thus creating inflation and a spec market.  So you have exterme stagflation hitting Europe.  They whole EU should take a major depression, kick out the PIIGS, they devalue, manage their own destinys.  Greece bounces back on a tourism high.  A depressed market would knock oil down.  But we have the doomsday inflation machines working over time, that being the central banks. 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:26 | 2179230 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Is it just me or is this whole charade to keep Greece in the Euro basically so that Portugal, Italy, Spain, Ireland don't get any ideas (like you can actually rebuild after default)?  Or is it that they know when the CDS cannot pay up the worldwide derivative ponzi will be marked to market (zero)?  Meh, probably both.  Tell me again what is wrong with running a sound money regime so you don't run into these issues?

OT:

Hmmm, IRS to provide help to victims of Ponzi Schemes

http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=205505,00.html

 

 

 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:36 | 2179248 chump666
chump666's picture

I think so, the PIIGS could all devalue, go back to the currencies.  CDS's implode, who cares a f*ck.  They (PIIGS) create  they own trades, industries, they can re-set their economies. Let the Ponzi collapse.  History lesson:  Late 1970's early 80's US economy was bad, real bad.  One city that was booming was Miami, ok, it was cocaine that was booming the city.  But, point is, they created their own banks, loans, developments, all disconnected from the wider US economic woes.

The EU is an interconnected failure. 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:59 | 2179455 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

The real charade is that the bankers don't give a fig about Greece.  Everything they do at this point is Greed + Self Preservation.  Greece is a distraction to keep your eyes  off of the sick reality.  The Fiat Money System has entered the parabolic stage.  

The Banking Cartel are not coming up with endless delays and half-baked plans by accident.

They simply have no choice.

 

It's going to be all rumours, lies, printing, deception, more printing, etc from here on out.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:06 | 2179170 kanenas
kanenas's picture

Come a few months later, elections will either be postponed by a coup or the greek people will have their say. Ex majority party is down to 13%, opposition to 20%. Past election they were adding to 45%..

PS: Second world war, italy demanded the surrender of greece. The answer was no. Italy lost the fight and germany came to the rescue. If the people in power now were back then in charge, they would have pontificated on the wise choice to surrender.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:10 | 2179183 ekm
ekm's picture

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/20/us-greece-poll-idUSTRE81J1G320120220

Just posted on ZH twitter feed. It's basically a commentary of your commentary. You seem to be correct.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:29 | 2179031 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Why doesn't Goldman Sachs simply carry Greece on its balance sheet ? It could then stuff it to retail investors as a recovery opportunity. Goldman has a track record in offloading crap onto retail investors and as a Bank Holding Company it could do great things with its Greece subsidiary and set up fancy derivative trades

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:17 | 2179211 ekm
ekm's picture

This is a good one. Kudos.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:30 | 2179032 youngman
youngman's picture

The speed of how their financials are failing is a serious red flag folks...let er go..cut the line...pull out now...this would be the stupidiist thing anyone could do would be to give them more money....I mean come on people...its over...its dead

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:03 | 2179157 ekm
ekm's picture

Last time ZH made the calc, only 19c /euro went to Greece. The other 81c/euro went back to german, french and dutch banks to pay for the interest, otherwise kaput (which is inevitable anyway)

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:08 | 2179174 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

And mostly French banks.  Sarkozy is going to have a wild time getting reelcted if Greece doesn't roll that debt!

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:29 | 2179200 ekm
ekm's picture

I don't know. Sarko is the 2nd in a row from the right wing (so to say since they're all socialists). Jacques Chirac of the same party won twice in row before him.

I'd say that the socialist Hollande will win just because it's the socialist's turn. However, Le Penn is wild card. She's campagning on (almost) quitting the euro.

The french system is typical european. If no one wins more than 50% in the first round, than the first two go for another fight two weeks later.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 04:11 | 2180214 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

this is part of the propaganda - this kind of bailouts always function this way

if you owe your sister 100 bucks, and I bail you out by paying your sister 100 bucks, zero bucks go to you.

the real problem is the compound interest - and nobody has an interest to make propaganda against that

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:32 | 2179040 xglider
xglider's picture

This market is schizophrenic. 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:35 | 2179048 ekm
ekm's picture

Which market?

The concept of market is "willing participants". Right now it's just the primary dealers and the brokers they own who are trading against each other. Who would be so idiotic to even think of entering this farce?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:38 | 2179062 ekm
ekm's picture

http://www.economist.com/node/21547809

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/02/20/887721/hedge-funds-exit-stage-left-pursued-by-bearishness/

Here's some proof for you. Even hedge funds are changing their legal terms since quote "we don't know what's happening" and quote "there's nothing to hedge against".

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:40 | 2179069 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

How about the rational consumer?  Where do they fit in?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:46 | 2179089 ekm
ekm's picture

For a real expert answer, read Steve Keen.

My answer: A consumer is as rational as man looking at some nice round boobs.

Have you seen women looking at shoe stands?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:47 | 2179103 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

How much for the boobs?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:49 | 2179110 ekm
ekm's picture

Please DO NOT get my imagination started. Round rear and round boobs make me quite irrational.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:46 | 2179100 rupeshpatel
rupeshpatel's picture

true .. its like a show with the politicians writing the script and the central banks acting as the director. who is putting risk on the table? banks are just broking each other .. real money are sitting like deer in headlights .. retail punters dont know any better and are messing around the edges. market (they are all just one big market really) are being played like a 6 piece band .. central bankers post 08 instead of reining back on financial engineering have stepped it up BIG TIME!  

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:54 | 2179133 ekm
ekm's picture

Thx for the input.

And the media keep saying that the Fed is independent. And people believe it!!!! 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:33 | 2179042 bobola
bobola's picture

Its priced in...

 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:33 | 2179044 trilliontroll
trilliontroll's picture

Greece bans free collective bargaining in breach of the European Charter of Fundamental Rights.

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=de&u=http://www.taz.de/Ar...!88103/&ei=VtVCT43SG9H2sga0x7jlBA&sa=X&oi=translate&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CDgQ7gEwAA&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dtaz%2BMaulkorb%2Bf%25C3%25BCr%2BGewerkschaften%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dubuntu%26hs%3DTJy%26channel%3Dfs%26prmd%3Dimvns

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:05 | 2179051 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Ver firvall komplete. These politicians are an absolute waste to society.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:35 | 2179055 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture
  • Even in best case scenario country will need at least €50 billion on top of 8136 billion.
  • 8136 billion? 8 trillion? only Bernanke can handle this.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:40 | 2179074 noses
    noses's picture

    Nonsense. Even my old HP LaserJet could handle it.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:59 | 2179091 ekm
    ekm's picture

    Funny

    I mean it.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:37 | 2179059 Central Bankster
    Central Bankster's picture

    and this is only Greece.  What about all the recapitalizations of all the other P.I.I.(G).S?

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:38 | 2179064 Frank N. Beans
    Frank N. Beans's picture

    yeah, i just heard a bunch of Greek Opa plates breaking

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:40 | 2179072 rupeshpatel
    rupeshpatel's picture

    whos got the balls to short this market?

     

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:47 | 2179422 WonderDawg
    WonderDawg's picture

    I haven't closed my shorts but I'm damn sure not adding to them at the moment.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:41 | 2179078 virgilcaine
    virgilcaine's picture

    If I loan/give someone 1000 dollars who is 1 million in debt, he may feel better for a night or two but he is still in debt. He may go to the pub for a drink or two but in the morning he is still in debt.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:41 | 2179079 BaggerDon
    BaggerDon's picture

    As long as Sarkozy wins, and Obama wins........we will let this crap explode later.....Moochelle looks good on the ski slopes, does nt she?  16 vacations in 3 years on the public dime !!!  Let them eat cake..

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:48 | 2179109 pmm009
    pmm009's picture

    SOOOO true.  The only logic in this farce is keeping the market together just long enough to get them elected.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:41 | 2179084 ArkansasAngie
    ArkansasAngie's picture

    What a crock of odoriferous material.

     

     

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:43 | 2179090 JohnKozac
    JohnKozac's picture

    "just print $3 trillion and be done with it!" my Grampa says.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:45 | 2179097 pmm009
    pmm009's picture

    Will somebody please stop this thing already...after inflation and the current Euro exchange rate, they are talking about spending nearly 60% of what we spent on TARP on a nation state the size of RI.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:46 | 2179099 nasdaq99
    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:52 | 2179126 riphowardkatz
    riphowardkatz's picture

    Yes, my neighbor who just declared bankruptcy is doing great. Back on the buying binge and looks happier than ever. 

    They have 5+% inflation, continuing gov deficits things are just great. 

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:02 | 2179153 chump666
    chump666's picture

    Why the f*ck fear bankruptcy?  Or price depression.  Who cares?  Start from zero and begin again. Keynesian economics is paranoia personified into a economic theory.

     

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:16 | 2179206 riphowardkatz
    riphowardkatz's picture

    nothing to fear about bankruptcy at all. It is very good tool when used properly. First you need to change your actions, then you need to make sure that you have income to support your style of living. Greece will not do either of these. They will print, then print some more, and print some more until the value of the drachma is worth .00000000001

    The  value of the currency will fall. Yes this can help tourism and some people will be better off than they were while on the euro but in the end the consequences could and probably will be much worse than the fiscal discipline being imposed on them by being in the Euro. 

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:49 | 2179113 engineertheeconomy
    engineertheeconomy's picture

    Austerity measures for the central bankers, let them live in cardboard shacks and eat cats for a change. It's all fun and games until they  start beheading the cock sucking sons of bitches

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:49 | 2179114 Piranhanoia
    Piranhanoia's picture

    At the meeting the ministers and their security details discussed a pike in the ass and public display compared to getting the hell out of the burning Eurouthouse for a more tropical resort type lifestyle.  All agreed and the meeting was adjourned. 

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:51 | 2179121 monopoly
    monopoly's picture

    To INFINITY AND BEYOND! TELL THE BANKERS TO GET F_____D ALREADY. ENOUGH.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:51 | 2179123 Silberadler
    Silberadler's picture

    Adolf !

    Adolf !?

     

    ADOLF ! get the hell out of your bunker.

    Go tell them folks some good news, will ya' !?

     

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 19:52 | 2179127 Zymurguy
    Zymurguy's picture

    New date to add to the Grecian Calendar:

    It's all over on the 23rd.

    http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/breaking-report-insider-documents-...

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:42 | 2179264 stocktivity
    stocktivity's picture

    Dated Feb 16th ...no sources

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:23 | 2179346 Zymurguy
    Zymurguy's picture

    I keep checking back there to see if they will ever cite sources... just thought I'd throw it out here to get some more folks to take a look.

    Regardless, that article says enough to incite a bank run.  If I lived in Greece and read it, I might start to take out as much $$$ from my accounts as possible.  I believe they already have some withdrawl restrictions don't they?  I know standard personal deposits in their banks has been draining out at an incredible rate.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:45 | 2179269 Stax Edwards
    Stax Edwards's picture

    I hope that is true, but fear we will live the rest of our lives on earth, running the heidelbergs full steam ahead with the can being kicked less and less each time.  Eventually we won't be able to see any movement in the can, but we will kick it till there is a hole in out boot and our bloody foot spilling out.  But that won't be enough.  We will keep kicking until just a stump of a leg is left.  Still with the kicking; like an addict, we just know the promise land is right around the corner.  So we call a friend and ask them to kick.  Soon everyone on the earth is lined up waiting for a chance to kick the immovable can.

    Oldie but Goodie:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXY9TuuwyL8

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:06 | 2179166 Vaiman
    Vaiman's picture

    The bulls have been pushing their luck in light of global events.  It's gonna be rough sailing for all the suckers buying in at the end of this last upward move.  When we get that major reality wake up call and drop back to previous lows they will be whining and crying the blues.  What will they be wailing?  "And I didn't even see it coming"?  "Who could have known"?  "I don't understand.  The economy was improving"?

    If there is any smart money out there, you would think they would be taking serious profits at this point.

    Yes I too am tired of the soap opera unfolding before us. 

    I'm almost ready to say:  "Que Sera Sera"  Whatever will be will be!

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:12 | 2179195 navy62802
    navy62802's picture

    Greece just needs to default and get on with it. This crap is simply ridiculous. They are in a hole they can never dig themselves out of. They are being forced into post-WWI Germany type conditions so that institutional banks can leech as much profit as possible. They're being forced to bow down to a bunch of ninnies who serve as the bell boys to corporate bankers. It's ridiculous. I know the Greek people see this for what it is. And that's the big question mark in all of this. What is going to happen if the deal goes through? Will there be anarchy in Greece? Will the deal crumble a week after it's passed? The next few weeks are going to be eventful.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:33 | 2179245 kanenas
    kanenas's picture

    Deal passes. Elections are announced. TV/media attack the populace with doom's day scenario of exiting euro. People vote for it. Coalition is formed. Austerity goes on. Greece defaults at a wrong timing. Exits euro. followed by portugal. EU becomes USE. Spain and italy opts in, get a huge bail out. Portugal and then Greece join USE after a few years, devalued.

    PS: If elections are not held withing a 2 month period, the two leading parties will be hardly adding to 20% of votes, risking the scenario set above..

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:22 | 2179224 Hondo
    Hondo's picture

    No possible way for any billion to be paid back with interest.....it is all ponzi and fools....

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:28 | 2179234 q99x2
    q99x2's picture

    Do I buy into the pre-market or not? That is all I f'n want to know.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:59 | 2179297 MsCreant
    MsCreant's picture

    Ian Andersen of Jethro Tull has a few choice lines that make me think of you:

    In the shuffling madness 
    of the locomotive breath, 
    runs the all-time loser, 
    headlong to his death. 
    "Oh" He feels the piston scraping -- 
    steam breaking on his brow -- 
    old Charlie stole the handle and 
    the train "it" won't stop going -- 
    no way to slow down. "OhooOh"

    He sees his children "jumping" off 
    at the stations -- one by one. 
    His woman and his best friend -- 
    in bed and having fun. 
    "Oh" He's crawling down the corridor 
    on his hands and knees -- 
    old Charlie stole the handle and 
    the train "it" won't stop going -- 
    no way to slow down. "Heaheya" 

    He hears the silence howling -- 
    catches angels as they fall. 
    And the all-time winner 
    has got him by the balls. 
    "Oh" He picks up Gideons Bible -- 
    open at page one -- 
    I "THINK" God "he" stole the handle and
    the train "it" won't stop going -- 
    no way to slow down. 
    "no way to slow down
    no way to slow down
    no way to slow down
    no way to slow down"

     

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:37 | 2179250 Ungaro
    Ungaro's picture

    I have Greece fatigue, too. Rational people have known for long that Greece cannot be bailed out any more than  a bottomless pit can be filled. The euroshills are scared shitless to admit the truth. In case of a disorderly default (I love the language: is there any other kind?) the F and D banks get pinched and will stop their political contributions. Oy!

    Iceland is a beacon of light. I wonder what is holding the PIGS back from following it?

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 22:02 | 2179465 HungrySeagull
    HungrySeagull's picture

    Baaaaaa. OY!

    Eh Wot?

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 20:53 | 2179288 MsCreant
    MsCreant's picture

    Though they tried and tried, they couldn't get the Greece stain out. They tried to white wash it (by hiding the debt in a special "instrument" that made the debt look like an asset), but once a stain is set, it is set. If you got to it early, and treated it correctly, there would be no stain. Pre-treatment is key (acknowledge the stain, don't do the laundry like normal, pay down debt, cut spending). Even better to do prevention and not get the stain in the first place.

    It is spreading to the rest of the laundry.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:02 | 2179303 rally_in_red
    rally_in_red's picture

    http://youtu.be/4Map2wVJmDg

    ScaM OF aLL ScAMs

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:06 | 2179308 ekm
    ekm's picture

    http://www.economist.com/node/21547809

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/02/20/887721/hedge-funds-exit-stage-left-pursued-by-bearishness/

    Hey Tylers

    It's bleedingly clear that Hedge Funds got screwed in 2011. See attached. Do you have anything more?

    Changing legal terms? Wooooooooooooooaaa.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:23 | 2179337 Tom Green Swedish
    Tom Green Swedish's picture

    I am sick of Greece too I want to vomit about all this crap about how crappy and stupid southern europe is. It is a known fact they are all lazy crooks. Somebody make them default and get over it.  They (All 3 of the PIGS) will never be able to repay these debt unless they grow by 15 percent a year. Impossible. This is a Pig Vomit joke. Take the loses now and avoid further pain in the future. You give these mafia clowns and prostitutes a bailout and they  will come back hat in hand everytime. They are all worthless bags of crap.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:26 | 2179356 Catullus
    Catullus's picture

    Wait, the bailout for the european banks won't improve the greek debt situation?  Who'da thunk.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 21:26 | 2179358 michaelsmith_9
    michaelsmith_9's picture

    The downside risk for Greece have been priced in for the last several months.  There may be a larger risk of a pop to the upside for the S&Ps.  The markets have room to run higher.  Here is a Market Report with a look at the ES, DX, NZDUSD, and USDSEK. Some clear trends have emerged. bit.ly/woRoas

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 22:01 | 2179462 HungrySeagull
    HungrySeagull's picture

    Wait for Hitler's reaction when he learns of this Greek Tragedy.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 22:25 | 2179519 cranky-old-geezer
    cranky-old-geezer's picture

     

     

    I can't imagine why bankers wana lend Greece more money when they can't pay the interest now, and lending them more money would destroy what's left of Greece's economy.

    There has to be another motivation.   I just can't imagine what it is.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 22:53 | 2179586 WonderDawg
    WonderDawg's picture

    It's been said before but I'll say it again. They aren't bailing out Greece, they're bailing out the banks.

    Tue, 02/21/2012 - 05:42 | 2180243 cranky-old-geezer
    cranky-old-geezer's picture

     

     

    Yep, I guess banker bonuses come from loans made, not loans paid.

    Mon, 02/20/2012 - 23:57 | 2179844 yogibear
    yogibear's picture

    LOL, and the media leak was by accident? Comical.

    Tue, 02/21/2012 - 00:18 | 2179917 pippinghole
    Tue, 02/21/2012 - 00:27 | 2179949 cnhedge
    cnhedge's picture

    the europe is building a fire wall and wait till it can kick greek out.

    http://www.cnhegde.com

    Tue, 02/21/2012 - 02:54 | 2180162 Nussi34
    Nussi34's picture

    Bomb them!

    Tue, 02/21/2012 - 03:32 | 2180190 Olympia
    Olympia's picture

    The greatest private fraud of human history.
    Who are the great fraudsters who are becoming the murderers of the human kind? How does the economy "illness" threaten Democracy and the freedom of people?

    http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html
    ---------------------------------
    By knowing what happened in indebted Greece, where loan sharks created “bubbles” and the current inhuman debt, one can understand the inhuman plan in total ...understand where this plan started just to bring all states at the same end ...understand how this type of plans are established...

    Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU

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    sikefeier0728's picture

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