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More PSI Troubles: Greek Swiss Franc Bondholders Organize, Will Hold Out
Confirming that the angst 3 days ahead of the Greek PSI deadline is very warranted, we learn that Bingham, which as we noted previously has so far identified and organized a significant group of local law bondholders potentially sufficient to derail the transaction, has now also organized a blocking group of Greek bondholders, this time those holding the country's outstanding Swiss Franc bonds. From Bloomberg: "Investors in Greece’s Swiss franc bonds have formed a group to fight for their rights as the country seeks to pare about 106 billion euros ($139 billion) of debt as part of an international bailout. The group is concerned by the terms of the restructuring and is “exploring means to address its concerns and to protect the rights of holders of the bonds,” according to a statement from their legal adviser Bingham McCutchen LLP in New York. The group holds the 650 million Swiss francs ($708 million) of 2.125 percent notes due 2013." Ironic that there are those who have taken a look at Venizelos' "best and only offer" and just said no. All that is left now is for Bingham to find and organize the blocking stake in the UK-law bonds and the PSI outcome will be, as we forecast way back when, that of the lower right quadrant. In the meantime, any and all Greek bondholders who dislike excess use of vaseline to be used on their bent over bodies, to contact Bingham promptly.
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"K-Y"?... Because we LIKE you!
M-I-C...K-E-Y... M-O-U-S-E
Pardon me while I put on my shocked face.
yeah! Now where did I leave that schocked face ....
I don't get it... like what's Kentucky got ot do with it?
They have one hell of a good basketball team... oh and Fort Knox.
Quick look over here... Iran has fire crackers and matches and the republicans want every woman to pay for her own birth control...OUTRAGEOUS!
Lets just get the White House in on this. They know how to take care of unruly bondholders and the rule of law. Just ask GM>
Music to my ears.
William,
Your creativity and focus continues to amaze. I thought I saw a lit fuse at the end of the 't' in default but no...
--Jim
If this hasn't been "priced in" by "the market", then I would like some EMH proponent explain why we should always believe "Mr. Market" knows best.
Got Silver and Gold?
@sunnydays
Yes, but i value my lead and rations more highly.
All of the private bondholders should tell TPTB to stuff it subsequent to the ECB's antics placing themselves in a preferred position within the priority of payments heirarchy.
"Fuck 'em." said the Bonddaddy.
We should have told 'TPTB' to stuff it long ago!
I see
I am not saying I believe this but The Heritic's channel ran a video on the ritual of Purim-which happens to be March 7-8 this year.
There is something about that date....what is it....
Anyway, watch it here.http://youtu.be/-l87-Miymvo
Video feels like it's trying to hypnotize. Or induce a seisure.
lol ~ reminds me of this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceUPN1yE1iM
Let's see. It's a joyous celebration reveling in defeat of one's enemies occurring about a week before the Ides of March which is a day of rememberance concerning an unpopular leader (Ceasar) who was stabbed to death in his own Senate for being a sanctimonious little prick.
That it?
So ZH forecasts a hard default?
ZH or Tyler?
I think the consensus of the public merchants of truth here is yes, hard default triggering a pure CDS trigger which ensures both European banks fail as well as the fools who issued the CDS> can anyone say Goldman Sachs?
Sadly in the end it will come out of our pocket. Can't let the squid die now can we?
lol! They will not fail until the CB which has their backs fail first.
CDS better 'trigger' is all I'm sayin'
Agreed...and by not triggering last time all they did was tell people "They have to hard default."
OK. Hard default it is.
You a funny man - CDS actually trigger. It's about as likely as a gang of super models beating down my door to have their way with me...
Let's say you're correct. Then what happens? You want to know the sad truth? Nothing. They keep the CDS 'market' and all the players pretend they don't have Stockholm Syndrome.
In the other case there should be a stampede out of CDS and subsequently Western bond 'markets'.
How exactly do they get out of CDS? I'm a newb, but I thought it was nothing more than fake insurance contracts without the actually paying out part, created to make banks money - you mean a refund?
How exactly do they get out of CDS?
Easy. They simply ignore the rules. It's the banks that control the panel that decides if something is a "credit event" that would trigger CDS forcing those same banks to pay out. It's like letting you decide whether or not you have to pay taxes. There is no more rule of law for the 0.1% and we all must invest with that in mind.
They are committing Farciside...
That's the question on my mind: how will the sov bond market fare if CDS is proven to be a useless insurance tool? Countries with funny bookeeping (that'd be all of them, wouldn't it?) would find it difficult to sell and service bonds--they wouldn't be able to afford the interest.
Someone is going to lose here, no matter what they do.
paradox of the day: if CDS never trigger, then we're back to a system without CDS. That means sov bonds wil have to evaluated more on fundamentals and synthetic default protection becomes tricky.
I said it last November: up to now the post-crisis markets ahve been running under the assumption that nearly everything would be backstopped and bailed out if needed. Now that default is becoming a real option a line has been crossed. And that could unleash a tsunami of risk aversion
I sold myself a life insurance policy so that when I kill myself I'll never have to pay...
SUCKA!
I faked my own death twice and world capital markets nearly seized up. Good thing my insurance co's CEO is Bernank's tennis partner. My policies paid off at double indemnity rates
I'll take this opportunity to remind everyone that 'trigger' isn't an objective 'event' but one caused by word of the very overlords who have everything at stake since they are the market makers.
The mind-fuck here is baffling since most people believe that the 'market' is somehow related to an objective world outside the scope of make-believe.
Unicorninomics is the word you are looking for
Thats what central banks (FED) are for.
+1 for the comment and the avatar, Dr. No. :)
There are a couple of members of SPECTRE on this board. No doubt some of these recent events are due our diabolical plans to rule the world...
good day Sir.
And a good day to you too, Sir. Should you or the other members of SPECTRE ever find yourself near San Monique, please drop by and I'll give you a tour of my hopium fields.
"knock-knock"...
Well, the gang of super models just had their way with me last night, and on their way to your place now HD..
/psyche! it was only in my dreams and yours too mate - hard default it will be and there won't be supermodels involved or high priced prostitutes for that matter for many - as they will be Broke with a capital B
Greece, it should be the new Iceland!!!!
That actually happened to me once. It was the best 45 seconds of my life!
Exactly right. Benny won't let a hard default happen. he can print in a couple hours the amount Greece needs in March, backload the sum to the IMF which will loan Greece the money under the table called some exotic scheme. it's all Bullshit!
It wont. The Committe which rules will state that an agreement was made and if it is not accepted, they viotate the terms of the CDS and therefore no trigger.
shoulbe be more like CSI...I doubt the basturds use lubrication. bodyguard hence protection must be in high demand. surprised no news of any banksters getting theirs.
If your going to lose your shirt anyway, make them remember you.
+100 LOVE THIS ATTITUDE!!!!!
Another way of saying I may lose, but you're gona feel it too!
EU is doomed regardless of outcome. The destination is the same, just the roads taken may vary.
If they cram through this deal without CDS trigger, all other CDS becomes worthless. Rates will continue to skyrocket, and banks lose out on their revenue stream. CDS is dead, it's all just watching the play finish out now.
If the CDS market dies, I would think interest rates would rise on sovereign bonds as the risk can no longer be hedged, but also, those bonds can't be counted as money good and thus levered to infinity. This would be deflationary, or am I missing something?
Hi Dawg,
Deflationary, indeed.
Sure would assume that any lender would demand a larger haircuts. Albeit the haircuts at the moment probably don't price in enough counterparty risk in the equation.... assuming that the financial strains of an EU/ECB/soverign debt debacle will make Lehman look like a piker's game.
Now we can't have that. Deflation is bad for the lender class. PRINT FASTER BITCH!
Knuks! How you doing? Agreed, this thing has potential to be a big deal. Interesting to watch how it unfolds. Epic times, my friend.
Epic, indeed.
Doing well thanks. Hoping the same for you. Off to my morning gathering.
:)
My guess is that if the CDS market dies, everyone will be screaming about a new "contagion" -- but instead of the Euro and banks seizing up, it'll be the whole sov bond market coming down with a sudden case of death, and it'll happen in advance of the currently anticipated sovereign defaults. Big thud.
And governments will operate on a cash in cash out basis? Or they won't operate at all?
Man, I don't know. If they can't borrow, then they have to tax, even if they cut services to the bone, because they have prior debts to service.
And if they can't tax the people up front, then they better have access to a printing press (which is just another way of taxing the people anyway. Debase the currency.)
You mean that CDS's can actually pay out? But I thought.. you know... you buy CDS and then tell your manager "sure... my positions is fully hedged. Hand over the bonus. I got a boat with my name on it parked in Connecticut". No-one ever actually expected that shit would ever have to pay out. It was just a part of the game book play for getting your bit of the magic money tree and everyone is happy.
You gotta fight! For your right! TO PARTY!
Troika Toga Party that is! Get it on and default till dawn!
TOGA, TOGA, TOGA!
Gonna nail us no matter what we do.....so we might as well have a good time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c93n6PTrhoQ
Perfect use of a youtube clip mate. +1
TOGA TOGA TOGA
No more pretending, just extending.
There has to be at least half a dozen sex jokes in there...
Yeah... Just remember... AFTER the Toga party comes the 'Road Trip' to visit Fawn Liebowicz...
...and AFTER that, there's a parade...
Gotta love those 1000% Greek 1 year bonds. They have default written all over them.
We have a contender for the Understatement of the Year Award.
With a recovery estimated at one medium unwrapped gift box of stale baklava.
There's a simple solution to clearing the PSI hurdle: get Putin to count the votes. That way, Greece can be assured of at least 120% participation.
WILL THEY NOT JUST PAY OUT THE HOLDOUT UK LAW BOND HOLDERS
LOL! with what cash? Insolvents "paying out" other insolvents, very funny.
Via The ECB-Bernank-Fractional Reserve Prankster cash model - electronic digits. transferred many times, never to to be replicated in physical form (the replicator's magnetron broke).
I've been paying for everything lately by telling creditors that The Bernank will be shipping them some binary, on the digital side, and to just be patient.
The Fractional Reserve Pranksters are geniuses. Give them 15 minutes and they can do anything!
</sarc>
I told the IRS that I was experiencing a liquidity event and meeting with my finance ministers to discuss the matter and that we would get back to them shortly.
They were not amused.
More ammunition for Obama to use against Mitt Romney and his Buy-Side background...
Obama: "Look at what these hedge fund hold-outs are doing! They are holding the rest of the world hostage! Romney is cut from the same cloth!"
Fuck Oblahblah....he's gonna have $5 gas for summer/fall....wont even be an election then, so worry about other things and forget politics its for suckers only.
Never underestimate the taste of the American public
Never underestimate the gullibility of the American public to fall for some stupid fucking slogan like Hope and Change.
Fixed it.
No one ever lost money (or power) underestimating the taste of the American public.
Um, Tyler, once again I dont see the 'Steve Liesman' block in this diagram....how can we understand it?
Funny to see uber-optimistic headlines here and there from a good bunch of homo sapiens sapiens from almost every respected newspaper around the globe.
This, even if the numbers that are on the table, for now say that it is not unlikely that even the minimum threshold won't be reached.
I'm now staring at the lowest bottom right quadrant with a mixed emotion of hope and fear; but in the end someone has to take it in the ass... [see homo sapiens sapiens above]
And they sell gold and move into the....US dollar. Gotta laugh.
sell eur; buy usd
sell usd; buy gold
sell gold; buy lands and chikens
I got the land.
I got the chickens as well! Plus some cattle!
Excuse me for self promotion, but this chart :
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/132799#comment-132799
is unbelievably accurate during the late peak un current silver selloff (see the little triangle peak around March 1st, green chart) and its source chart (longterm silver prediction chart where I copy it from):
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=680#p34623
was made on October 17th, 2011. The older one, from March 13th, 2011 (red chart) does not look bad either. Interesting to see how close it will be to spot price on its yearly anniversary on March 13th, 2012.
All prediction charts can be found here: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/2814/ivars-charts
Excuse me for self promotion, but this chart :
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/132799#comment-132799
is unbelievably accurate during the late peak un current silver selloff (see the little triangle peak around March 1st, green chart) and its source chart (longterm silver prediction chart where I copy it from):
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=680#p34623
was made on October 17th, 2011. The older one, from March 13th, 2011 (red chart) does not look bad either. Interesting to see how close it will be to spot price on its yearly anniversary on March 13th, 2012.
All prediction charts can be found here: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/2814/ivars-charts
Would those Greek Swiss Franc Bondholders perchance be the Greeks who have paid their Greek taxes into Swiss bank accounts ?
of course... and they are paying Fin Min for inside track on PSI... and they will be paid par quietly by ECB... then they'll split the profits amongst themselves and members of troika
Here is what the world might look like in a couple of days: No CDS triggers, and take-it-or-leave-it haircut deals from defaulting sovs. Now that's what I call a radical shift from the world of Bernanke puts, Timmah calls, and Trichet insurance.
Maybe the Greeks cut another deal with Goldman like thie one:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-06/goldman-secret-greece-loan-show...
Now I understand a little about evil.
Repeat
The financial system going tits up should be the perfect cover for a little airstrike, don't you think?
xcuse me for self promotion, but this chart :
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/132799#comment-132799
is unbelievably accurate during the late peak un current silver selloff (see the little triangle peak around March 1st, green chart) and its source chart (longterm silver prediction chart where I copy it from):
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=680#p34623
was made on October 17th, 2011. The older one, from March 13th, 2011 (red chart) does not look bad either. Interesting to see how close it will be to spot price on its yearly anniversary on March 13th, 2012.
All prediction charts can be found here: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/2814/ivars-charts
"Nothing is but what is not."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-05/twelve-banks-commit-to-greek-debt-swap-plan-as-deadline-for-approval-looms.html
The picture should be a caption contest
Let's see.
1) Pull a group together big enough to skuttle PSI.
2) Go short the Euro at 400x leverage.
3) Announce you have a group big enough to sink the PSI.
4) Make more than enough to cover your bond losses.
Sounds like a plan to me.
+1
As Mr. Burns would say: "Excellent..."
Why I love this site, and Tyler in particular;
"In the meantime, any and all Greek bondholders who dislike excess use of vaseline to be used on their bent over bodies, to contact Bingham promptly"
I am still laughing my face off, thx Tyler!
I get all this entertainment, and get news about the end of the (financial) world
It's awesome!
;)
take care
Jean-M
I dont have much to say…BUT
They have much to say:
A. IIF
http://www.scribd.com/doc/84060521/IIF-Implications-of-a-Disorderly-Greek-Default-and-Euro-Exit-PP
B. Moodys
http://www.scribd.com/doc/84057113/Moody%E2%80%99s-Analytics-Greek-Rescue-Agreement-2012-PP
??????/PP