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More PSI Troubles: Greek Swiss Franc Bondholders Organize, Will Hold Out

Tyler Durden's picture


Confirming that the angst 3 days ahead of the Greek PSI deadline is very warranted, we learn that Bingham, which as we noted previously has so far identified and organized a significant group of local law bondholders potentially sufficient to derail the transaction, has now also organized a blocking group of Greek bondholders, this time those holding the country's outstanding Swiss Franc bonds. From Bloomberg: "Investors in Greece’s Swiss franc bonds have formed a group to fight for their rights as the country seeks to pare about 106 billion euros ($139 billion) of debt as part of an international bailout. The group is concerned by the terms of the restructuring and is “exploring means to address its concerns and to protect the rights of holders of the bonds,” according to a statement from their legal adviser Bingham McCutchen LLP in New York. The group holds the 650 million Swiss francs ($708 million) of 2.125 percent notes due 2013." Ironic that there are those who have taken a look at Venizelos' "best and only offer" and just said no. All that is left now is for Bingham to find and organize the blocking stake in the UK-law bonds and the PSI outcome will be, as we forecast way back when, that of the lower right quadrant. In the meantime, any and all Greek bondholders who dislike excess use of vaseline to be used on their bent over bodies, to contact Bingham promptly.


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Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:29 | 2227493 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"K-Y"?... Because we LIKE you!

M-I-C...K-E-Y... M-O-U-S-E

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:34 | 2227510 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Pardon me while I put on my shocked face.



Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:41 | 2227522 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

yeah! Now where did I leave that schocked face ....

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:42 | 2227525 knukles
knukles's picture

I don't get it... like what's Kentucky got ot do with it?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:15 | 2227633 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

They have one hell of a good basketball team... oh and Fort Knox.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:30 | 2227678 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Quick look over here... Iran has fire crackers and matches and the republicans want every woman to pay for her own birth control...OUTRAGEOUS!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:30 | 2227497 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Lets just get the White House in on this. They know how to take care of unruly bondholders and the rule of law. Just ask GM>

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:31 | 2227504 knukles
knukles's picture

Music to my ears.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:17 | 2227637 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture


Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:22 | 2227649 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture


Your creativity and focus continues to amaze. I thought I saw a lit fuse at the end of the 't' in default but no...


Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:30 | 2227499 Cursive
Cursive's picture

If this hasn't been "priced in" by "the market", then I would like some EMH proponent explain why we should always believe "Mr. Market" knows best.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:54 | 2227555 sunnydays
sunnydays's picture

Got Silver and Gold? 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:06 | 2227601 Cursive
Cursive's picture


Yes, but i value my lead and rations more highly.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:30 | 2227500 knukles
knukles's picture

All of the private bondholders should tell TPTB to stuff it subsequent to the ECB's antics placing themselves in a preferred position within the priority of payments heirarchy.
"Fuck 'em." said the Bonddaddy.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:55 | 2227562 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We should have told 'TPTB' to stuff it long ago! 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:15 | 2227630 Stanwick
Stanwick's picture

I see

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:31 | 2227501 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I am not saying I believe this but The Heritic's channel ran a video on the ritual of Purim-which happens to be March 7-8 this year.

There is something about that date....what is it....

Anyway, watch it here.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:38 | 2227516 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

Video feels like it's trying to hypnotize.  Or induce a seisure.  

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:02 | 2227581 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

lol ~ reminds me of this...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:04 | 2227520 knukles
knukles's picture

Let's see.  It's a joyous celebration reveling in defeat of one's enemies occurring about a week before the Ides of March which is a day of rememberance concerning an unpopular leader (Ceasar) who was stabbed to death in his own Senate for being a sanctimonious little prick.
That it?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:31 | 2227502 Chuck Bone
Chuck Bone's picture

So ZH forecasts a hard default?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:39 | 2227519 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

ZH or Tyler?

I think the consensus of the public merchants of truth here is yes, hard default triggering a pure CDS trigger which ensures both European banks fail as well as the fools who issued the CDS> can anyone say Goldman Sachs?

Sadly in the end it will come out of our pocket.  Can't let the squid die now can we?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:47 | 2227537 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

which ensures both European banks fail as well as the fools who issued the CDS> can anyone say Goldman Sachs?

lol!  They will not fail until the CB which has their backs fail first.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:32 | 2227505 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

CDS better 'trigger' is all I'm sayin'

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:41 | 2227521 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Agreed...and by not triggering last time all they did was tell people "They have to hard default."

OK.  Hard default it is.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:41 | 2227523 HD
HD's picture

You a funny man - CDS actually trigger.  It's about as likely as a gang of super models beating down my door to have their way with me...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:47 | 2227536 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Let's say you're correct. Then what happens? You want to know the sad truth? Nothing. They keep the CDS 'market' and all the players pretend they don't have Stockholm Syndrome.

In the other case there should be a stampede out of CDS and subsequently Western bond 'markets'.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:51 | 2227547 tiwimon
tiwimon's picture

How exactly do they get out of CDS? I'm a newb, but I thought it was nothing more than fake insurance contracts without the actually paying out part, created to make banks money - you mean a refund?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 11:21 | 2227979 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

How exactly do they get out of CDS?

Easy. They simply ignore the rules. It's the banks that control the panel that decides if something is a "credit event" that would trigger CDS forcing those same banks to pay out. It's like letting you decide whether or not you have to pay taxes. There is no more rule of law for the 0.1% and we all must invest with that in mind.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 22:54 | 2230863 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

They are committing Farciside...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:54 | 2227554 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

That's the question on my mind: how will the sov bond market fare if CDS is proven to be a useless insurance tool? Countries with funny bookeeping (that'd be all of them, wouldn't it?) would find it difficult to sell and service bonds--they wouldn't be able to afford the interest.

Someone is going to lose here, no matter what they do.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:01 | 2227575 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

paradox of the day: if CDS never trigger, then we're back to a system without CDS. That means sov bonds wil have to evaluated more on fundamentals and synthetic default protection becomes tricky. 

I said it last November: up to now the post-crisis markets ahve been running under the assumption that nearly everything would be backstopped and bailed out if needed. Now that default is becoming a real option a line has been crossed. And that could unleash a tsunami of risk aversion

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:06 | 2227598 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I sold myself a life insurance policy so that when I kill myself I'll never have to pay...


Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:11 | 2227612 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I faked my own death twice and world capital markets nearly seized up. Good thing my insurance co's CEO is Bernank's tennis partner. My policies paid off at double indemnity rates

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:08 | 2227608 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

I'll take this opportunity to remind everyone that 'trigger' isn't an objective 'event' but one caused by word of the very overlords who have everything at stake since they are the market makers.

The mind-fuck here is baffling since most people believe that the 'market' is somehow related to an objective world outside the scope of make-believe.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 14:15 | 2228843 prains
prains's picture

Unicorninomics is the word you are looking for

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:03 | 2227582 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

would find it difficult to sell and service bonds

Thats what central banks (FED) are for.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:09 | 2227609 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

+1 for the comment and the avatar, Dr. No. :)

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:27 | 2227664 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

There are a couple of members of SPECTRE on this board.  No doubt some of these recent events are due our diabolical plans to rule the world...


good day Sir.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:44 | 2227745 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

And a good day to you too, Sir. Should you or the other members of SPECTRE ever find yourself near San Monique, please drop by and I'll give you a tour of my hopium fields.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:48 | 2227539 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture


Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:48 | 2227541 tiwimon
tiwimon's picture

Well, the gang of super models just had their way with me last night, and on their way to your place now HD..


/psyche! it was only in my dreams and yours too mate - hard default it will be and there won't be supermodels involved or high priced prostitutes for that matter for many - as they will be Broke with a capital B


Greece, it should be the new Iceland!!!! 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:08 | 2227606 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

That actually happened to me once. It was the best 45 seconds of my life!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:01 | 2229104 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Exactly right. Benny won't let a hard default happen. he can print in a couple hours the amount Greece needs in March, backload the sum to the IMF which will loan Greece the money under the table called some exotic scheme. it's all Bullshit!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:53 | 2227553 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

It wont.  The Committe which rules will state that an agreement was made and if it is not accepted, they viotate the terms of the CDS and therefore no trigger.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:32 | 2227506 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

shoulbe be more like CSI...I doubt the basturds use lubrication. bodyguard hence protection must be in high demand. surprised no news of any banksters getting theirs.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:34 | 2227509 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

If your going to lose your shirt anyway, make them remember you.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:06 | 2227597 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture


Another way of saying I may lose, but you're gona feel it too!


Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:35 | 2227512 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

EU is doomed regardless of outcome.  The destination is the same, just the roads taken may vary.

If they cram through this deal without CDS trigger, all other CDS becomes worthless.  Rates will continue to skyrocket, and banks lose out on their revenue stream.  CDS is dead, it's all just watching the play finish out now.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:45 | 2227533 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

If the CDS market dies, I would think interest rates would rise on sovereign bonds as the risk can no longer be hedged, but also, those bonds can't be counted as money good and thus levered to infinity. This would be deflationary, or am I missing something?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:59 | 2227569 knukles
knukles's picture

Hi Dawg,
Deflationary, indeed. 
Sure would assume that any lender would demand a larger haircuts.  Albeit the haircuts at the moment probably don't price in enough counterparty risk in the equation.... assuming that the financial strains of an EU/ECB/soverign debt debacle will make Lehman look like a piker's game.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:04 | 2227590 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Now we can't have that. Deflation is bad for the lender class. PRINT FASTER BITCH!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:06 | 2227600 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Knuks! How you doing? Agreed, this thing has potential to be a big deal. Interesting to watch how it unfolds. Epic times, my friend.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:27 | 2227665 knukles
knukles's picture

Epic, indeed.
Doing well thanks.  Hoping the same for you.  Off to my morning gathering.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:05 | 2227592 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

My guess is that if the CDS market dies, everyone will be screaming about a new "contagion" -- but instead of the Euro and banks seizing up, it'll be the whole sov bond market coming down with a sudden case of death, and it'll happen in advance of the currently anticipated sovereign defaults. Big thud.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 12:42 | 2228462 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

And governments will operate on a cash in cash out basis? Or they won't operate at all?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 13:45 | 2228714 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

Man, I don't know. If they can't borrow, then they have to tax, even if they cut services to the bone, because they have prior debts to service.

And if they can't tax the people up front, then they better have access to a printing press (which is just another way of taxing the people anyway. Debase the currency.)

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:06 | 2227602 The Onion Of Tw...
The Onion Of Twickenham's picture

You mean that CDS's can actually pay out? But I thought.. you know... you buy CDS and then tell your manager "sure... my positions is fully hedged. Hand over the bonus. I got a boat with my name on it parked in Connecticut". No-one ever actually expected that shit would ever have to pay out. It was just a part of the game book play for getting your bit of the magic money tree and everyone is happy.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:36 | 2227513 HD
HD's picture

You gotta fight! For your right! TO PARTY!

Troika Toga Party that is! Get it on and default till dawn!


Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:39 | 2227518 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Gonna nail us no matter what we we might as well have a good time.




Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:43 | 2227528 HD
HD's picture

Perfect use of a youtube clip mate. +1

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:46 | 2227758 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture


Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:42 | 2227524 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

No more pretending, just extending.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:44 | 2227529 HD
HD's picture

There has to be at least half a dozen sex jokes in there...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:09 | 2227611 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Yeah... Just remember... AFTER the Toga party comes the 'Road Trip' to visit Fawn Liebowicz...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:10 | 2227613 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

...and AFTER that, there's a parade...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:45 | 2227532 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Gotta love those 1000% Greek 1 year bonds. They have default written all over them.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:48 | 2227538 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

We have a contender for the Understatement of the Year Award.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:02 | 2227580 knukles
knukles's picture

With a recovery estimated at one medium unwrapped gift box of stale baklava.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:48 | 2227542 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

There's a simple solution to clearing the PSI hurdle:  get Putin to count the votes.  That way, Greece can be assured of at least 120% participation.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:51 | 2227545 lex228
lex228's picture


Tue, 03/06/2012 - 11:03 | 2227840 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!  with what cash?  Insolvents "paying out" other insolvents, very funny.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 11:08 | 2227864 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Via The ECB-Bernank-Fractional Reserve Prankster cash model - electronic digits. transferred many times, never to to be replicated in physical form (the replicator's magnetron broke).

I've been paying for everything lately by telling creditors that The Bernank will be shipping them some binary, on the digital side, and to just be patient.

The Fractional Reserve Pranksters are geniuses. Give them 15 minutes and they can do anything!



Tue, 03/06/2012 - 13:49 | 2228731 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

I told the IRS that I was experiencing a liquidity event and meeting with my finance ministers to discuss the matter and that we would get back to them shortly.

They were not amused.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:51 | 2227546 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

More ammunition for Obama to use against Mitt Romney and his Buy-Side background...

Obama: "Look at what these hedge fund hold-outs are doing! They are holding the rest of the world hostage! Romney is cut from the same cloth!"

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:53 | 2227552 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fuck Oblahblah....he's gonna have $5 gas for summer/fall....wont even be an election then, so worry about other things and forget politics its for suckers only.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:03 | 2227585 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Never underestimate the taste of the American public

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:50 | 2227778 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Never underestimate the gullibility of the American public to fall for some stupid fucking slogan like Hope and Change.

Fixed it.


Tue, 03/06/2012 - 11:14 | 2227926 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

No one ever lost money (or power) underestimating the taste of the American public.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:54 | 2227557 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Um, Tyler, once again I dont see the 'Steve Liesman' block in this can we understand it?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:56 | 2227560 Eclipse89
Eclipse89's picture

Funny to see uber-optimistic headlines here and there from a good bunch of homo sapiens sapiens from almost every respected newspaper around the globe.

This, even if the numbers that are on the table, for now say that it is not unlikely that even the minimum threshold won't be reached.

I'm now staring at the lowest bottom right quadrant with a mixed emotion of hope and fear; but in the end someone has to take it in the ass... [see homo sapiens sapiens above]

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:55 | 2227561 monopoly
monopoly's picture

And they sell gold and move into the....US dollar. Gotta laugh.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:57 | 2227564 Eclipse89
Eclipse89's picture

sell eur; buy usd

sell usd; buy gold

sell gold; buy lands and chikens

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:01 | 2227573 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

I got the land.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:54 | 2227796 GCT
GCT's picture

I got the chickens as well!  Plus some cattle!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:58 | 2227566 ivars
ivars's picture

Excuse me for self promotion, but this chart :

is unbelievably accurate during the late peak un current silver selloff (see the little triangle peak around March 1st, green chart)  and its source chart (longterm silver prediction chart where I copy it from):

was made on October 17th, 2011. The older one, from March 13th, 2011 (red chart) does not look bad either. Interesting to see how close it will be to spot price on its yearly anniversary on March 13th, 2012.

All prediction  charts can be found here:

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:58 | 2227568 ivars
ivars's picture

Excuse me for self promotion, but this chart :

is unbelievably accurate during the late peak un current silver selloff (see the little triangle peak around March 1st, green chart)  and its source chart (longterm silver prediction chart where I copy it from):

was made on October 17th, 2011. The older one, from March 13th, 2011 (red chart) does not look bad either. Interesting to see how close it will be to spot price on its yearly anniversary on March 13th, 2012.

All prediction  charts can be found here:

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:00 | 2227572 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Would those Greek Swiss Franc Bondholders perchance be the Greeks who have paid their Greek taxes into Swiss bank accounts ?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:04 | 2227588 edmondantes
edmondantes's picture

of course... and they are paying Fin Min for inside track on PSI... and they will be paid par quietly by ECB... then they'll split the profits amongst themselves and members of troika

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:08 | 2227605 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Here is what the world might look like in a couple of days: No CDS triggers, and take-it-or-leave-it haircut deals from defaulting sovs. Now that's what I call a radical shift from the world of Bernanke puts, Timmah calls, and Trichet insurance. 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:08 | 2227607 King_Julian
King_Julian's picture

Maybe the Greeks cut another deal with Goldman like thie one:

Now I understand a little about evil.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:09 | 2227610 King_Julian
King_Julian's picture


Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:22 | 2227652 flyonmywall
flyonmywall's picture

The financial system going tits up should be the perfect cover for a little airstrike, don't you think?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:39 | 2227716 ivars
ivars's picture

xcuse me for self promotion, but this chart :

is unbelievably accurate during the late peak un current silver selloff (see the little triangle peak around March 1st, green chart)  and its source chart (longterm silver prediction chart where I copy it from):

was made on October 17th, 2011. The older one, from March 13th, 2011 (red chart) does not look bad either. Interesting to see how close it will be to spot price on its yearly anniversary on March 13th, 2012.

All prediction  charts can be found here:

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 11:12 | 2227907 P229R
P229R's picture

"Nothing is but what is not."

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 13:13 | 2228604 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Let's see. 

1) Pull a group together big enough to skuttle PSI. 

2) Go short the Euro at 400x leverage. 

3) Announce you have a group big enough to sink the PSI.

4) Make more than enough to cover your bond losses.

Sounds like a plan to me.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 13:53 | 2228743 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture


As Mr. Burns would say: "Excellent..."

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 13:53 | 2228744 Gauthijm
Gauthijm's picture

Why I love this site, and Tyler in particular;

"In the meantime, any and all Greek bondholders who dislike excess use of vaseline to be used on their bent over bodies, to contact Bingham promptly"


I am still laughing my face off, thx Tyler!

I get all this entertainment, and get news about the end of the (financial) world

It's awesome!



take care


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