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Morgan Stanley CDS Curve Inverts As Risk Highest Since Q4 2008

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2011 09:23 -0400

We have been discussing US (and European) financial risk for some time (especially recently with regard MS exposure to French banks). Since we published that article, we have seen incredible shifts in MS CDS and bonds even as stocks appear to shrug of some of the reality of the situation. An excellent article on Bloomberg last evening pointed out that not only was MS CDS at rather extreme levels, it was quietly as risky (if not more so) than many of the European banks that are making the headlines. Not only is MS CDS its highest since its spike highs in Q4 2008, the curve is inverted with 1Y risk trading 500/550 against 5Y risk at 455/470 which strongly suggests jump risk (or counterparty risk) is being aggressively hedged. With over $4.5bn of debt maturing in Q4 (which we have been pointing out for months - TLGP issues) and the increasingly binary nature of any outcomes, it seems the only real buyer of any MS debt are basis traders as the difference between bond spreads and CDS has halved in the last few weeks.

The only time that CDS for Morgan Stanley was higher was during the middle of the crisis when they spiked massively higher - the situation is becoming increasingly binary.

And the spread between bonds (which are trading wider - cheaper than) and CDS is falling (an upwards bias in the basis chart above) as basis traders (remember we discussed these traders in yesterday's closing market snapshot) step in to scoop up with 100-150bps differential. However, bond liquidity can disappear very quickly when outcomes are so uncertain (see Q4 2008 Q1 2009) and ask Boaz Weinstein - so don't be left holding that bag.

Charts: Bloomberg

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Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:24 | 1725496 Careless Whisper

The Careless Whisper Morning Report

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15106811

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NY Supreme Court Judge Upholds Fourth Amendment; NYC Cop Lied About Consent To Search

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"SlutWalk NYC" To Hold March Saturday To Protest Sluts Being Blamed For Rape

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Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:38 | 1725542 doomandbloom

You should post this in the contributer section.

I miss the Project Mayhem reports...but this will do fine.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:46 | 1725571 SheepDog-One

Warren to ring the NYSE opening bell? Who cares wasnt that sold to the Germans?

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:49 | 1725580 Ruffcut

I noticed when MS went up a buck over a couple days, the puts did not move much. I need a good payday. BAC falling is nice, too.

I can only imagine Brooksley Borne shacking her head about the cds ponzi.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:25 | 1725499 Tense INDIAN

cramer just said Morgan Stanley was fine

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:30 | 1725525 Jayda1850

Said the same thing about bear stearns. 2008 Deja vu anyone?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUkbdjetlY8

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:37 | 1725537 anynonmous

all we need is a confirmation from Bove and it's a lock

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:52 | 1725590 SheepDog-One

Cramer Kiss of Death proclaiming a bank 'fine'...implosion in 3....2....

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 10:47 | 1725764 Gadfly

If Cramer said it's fine, then it's definitely time to sell!

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:28 | 1725512 mayhem_korner

This is like the market's version of margin hikes on banks. Up, up, and awaaaaayyyy.

Tee hee.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:34 | 1725531 bigwavedave

Why doesnt MS buy its own CDS? As a primary dealer this would be cheaper than a stock buyback program no?

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:41 | 1725555 snowball777

And a great deal easier to keep under the radar. ;)

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 10:19 | 1725664 Robot Traders Mom

Who would they buy CDS protection from? Someone else that already has exposure to them through swaps, etc? All that would do is tell the world they are throwing in the towel.

Good idea, but not workable. A stock buyback may give them a little bit of breathing room, but they are trying to shore up liquidty and capital. Doubtful that would happen.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:38 | 1725536 Burnsy

Probably just John Paulson pushing an illiquid market higher to hedge his totally fucked long posisiton in BAC from complete disaster. I am only half kidding.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:37 | 1725538 doomandbloom

Fire in the bathtub...run run run

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:43 | 1725562 snowball777

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Zdx0YrzHVk&NR

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:38 | 1725539 Burnsy

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:39 | 1725544 sabra1

OT:

Germany is rumored to have ordered printing plates to resume printing Marks, and is intending to walk. This does make sense, although the Germans would have to find a way to shield their banks from the impact of a massive shift off the Euro and into the Mark by Germans, which would spike the Mark higher and positively trash the Euro's value.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:45 | 1725569 snowball777

They've got some experience with changing horses midstream.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 10:07 | 1725621 disabledvet

that would annihilate the European Union. I'm not sure it's really even "doable" in the sense that transfer payments within the Euro area would cease and ...well...then what?

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:40 | 1725550 Belarus

OFF TOPIC: It's amazing how pyschologically important the despots must feel the 11,000 mark is on the DOW. With this kind of completely rigged trading, it seems there should be a daily open thread for everything that appears to be bullshit trading.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:47 | 1725573 fdisk

"rigged trading"..

Why is that? Market moving up, except lots of moaning

from ZH members. Do you get lesson yet buying Gold at 1950?

Now you going to get another one by Selling S&P AT 1100.

Watch and learn.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:53 | 1725597 SheepDog-One

'Market moving up'? What kind of upside down monitor do you have? Markets havent gone anywhere all year.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 10:00 | 1725608 somethingisrotten

I sure hope you keep buying. We do love trolls with bulleyes on themselves.

I will just break out the popcorn and watch this slo-mo trainwreck with my stash.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 10:13 | 1725636 fdisk

And I hope you shorting huge like that BBC pink moron..
And wait for brain activity recession.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 10:21 | 1725668 lizzy36

P&L pics or you are just a troll.

Just an FYI, S&P basically flat since 2008. (despite $5T of fiscal and monetary stimulas) Gold on the other hand is up 96% in 3 years.

You seem like a clever guy, so I will let you figure correlation or causation.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 09:45 | 1725570 Belarus

Look at that fucking ramp. Should end up at least 200+ points for the day.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 10:13 | 1725641 Cone of Uncertainty

I'm buying some more ammo this weekend.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 10:43 | 1725746 ivars

Here is comparison chart between my feb 6th chart of DJIA and actual prices. After 8 months with mistakes in the middle, its for last 2 months within 0-5% of actual DJIA:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2860#p34298

In original chart, the trend continues to go down with increasing speed. Recession in the USA is guaranteed in Q1 2012.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 11:05 | 1725833 paul_Liu

Tyler is the man.

Very good analysis, even more professional than the Bloomberg one.

Fri, 09/30/2011 - 11:21 | 1725891 Mr Warn-er

Morgan's aggressive pricing in the structured world has been a give away for the last few months.

Morgan Stanley CDS Curve Inverts As Risk Highest Since Q4 2008

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