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Morgan Stanley Gets Downright Apocalyptic

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Listening to David Greenlaw and/or Jim Caron as they strike out again, and again, and again, with delusions of economic grandure over US GDP and some historic 2s10s bull steepener which is never, ever coming, one would be left with the impression that Morgan Stanley has inherited the title of most permabullish sell side advisory from Deutsche Bank's economics department. Nothing could be further from the truth. Like any other bank, MS has perfectly hedged its rosy outlook by spoonfeeding its retail clients with the rosy view, while whispering the apocalypse case to its institutional clients (judging by last week's pummeling in MS stock, there is not that many of them left). Below we present the view of MS' equity strategy team under Adam Parker, who gives not only a distribution range for his year end S&P target (1004-1425), but a matrix specifying the probability outcome of either case. Bottom line, "while there is 18% upside to the year-end bull case and 16% downside to the year-end bear case, we assign a higher probability to our bear case than bull case, preventing us from becoming increasingly optimistic." When even Morgan Stanley tells you (or rather the whale clients who are now more than happy to sell into every low volume, retail driven rally) there is little to smile about, it is high time to look for the exits.

From Morgan Stanley:

One way to think about what is priced into the equity market today is to look at a range of forward EPS and price-to-forward earnings multiples (Exhibit 2). Forward earnings data have existed since 1976, and the historical median price-to-forward earnings multiple is 13.6x. If the bottom-up consensus estimate of $114 turns out to be achievable, and the median forward earnings estimate were applied to it, the market would trade at 1550. Our base case is 12x $103.2 in 2012 EPS, or 1238. We have boxed in a variety of scenarios close to what is being implied by today’s price, and what would be implied by our bear and bull cases. While it’s impossible to know for sure what combination of multiple and forward EPS is being digested, we do believe that the market is pricing in something close to 12x $100 dollars today.

We don’t think a recession is fully priced in, as market retrenchment is usually far more substantial in that case, recent jobs data did not imply a recession is imminent, and corporate profitability and estimates remain robust. We think management guidance and sell-side estimates must be reduced to believe a substantial buying opportunity is imminent. Secondly, we have always, and continue to assign a higher probability to the bear case than the bull case, and believe the recent price action increases the probability of the bear case. Poor price action, the S&P downgrade of US sovereign debt, and the exacerbation of recent problems in Europe likely decrease confidence and increase the probability of the bear case (Exhibit 3).

Said another way, while there is 18% upside to the year-end bull case and 16% downside to the year-end bear case, we assign a higher probability to our bear case than bull case, preventing us from becoming increasingly optimistic.

Rather self explanatory.

Perhaps someone can ask CNBC Friday's afternoon permaguest David "Soul Glo" Durst how he justifies his endless optimistic outlook on stocks when his own colleagues warn the bottom is about to fall out...

 


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Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:48 | Link to Comment anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

so this is bullish?  seriously

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:59 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

very bullish, what with the EU pulling a bandaid of some sort out of their ass soon, another round of fed money printing on deck, zero interest rates as far as they eye can see and the mother of all carry trades in the dollar kicking off,  I'd expect we're only about midway up on this equity ramp.

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:27 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Not so fast.  Real asset prices are declining.  Commodities will hopefully follow, and if they do the scenario may become rosy again.

http://online.wsj.com/video/nouriel-roubini-invest-in-cash/86D82465-9DB9...

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:53 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

deflation, anyone? kicking this can is getting heavier and heavier. got some serious club foot here. bernanke will kick again, and this time we'll start spurting blood. krugman already calling for more inflation. the inflation level — even weimar inflation — will never be enough for krugman.

http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/12/krugman-calls-for-more-riots/ 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:01 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Kicking? No. They have a whole fucking Congress using a Roman Ram as a team battering that thing down the dirt road.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 00:45 | Link to Comment RetardTrader
RetardTrader's picture

why don't you go long inflation swaps? or spread long tips short bonds?   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-09/u-s-10-year-tips-yields-go-nega...

looks like a great entry point.

 

For what it's worth, that inflation you're talking about doesn't seem to be happening on many things except the price of gold.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:35 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Let's just wait and see what Cramer says what we should all do...

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 23:08 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I think cramer would have bitten his tongue off by US open on monday. He'll be making his usual in-cohate sounds while the edifice burns.....

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/12/crop-circle-craziness-and-thoughts/

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 20:44 | Link to Comment Kiss My Iceland...
Kiss My Icelandic Ass's picture

"there is 18% upside to the year-end bull case and 16% downside to the year-end bear case"

 

In other words...

 

After careful consideration, we believe the stock market could finish the year either up or down.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 02:18 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

+/- 1

;-)

ORI

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 09:52 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Down is failure in the third year of a Presidential cycle. Period.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 12:03 | Link to Comment dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

They also predicted the rain for the rest of the year -- 50% chance of rain on the downside 50% chance of sun on the upside.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:51 | Link to Comment Galen Slade
Galen Slade's picture

No.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:51 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

The employment report was caca. Participation rate dropped and NILF increased. There are just fewer people in the workforce to layoff or hire. Thus the data has been compacted in relation to the population total.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Rastadamus
Rastadamus's picture

I am no firefighter. That's why I am not qualified to go in a burning building. The equities markets are burning down. Babylon is on fire, smell it? Got gold? Silver bitchez?!

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:31 | Link to Comment firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

I agree.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:00 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Even gold and silver must liquidfy in the inferno. Don't stay in it too long.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:17 | Link to Comment Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

too long ? You have another decade before even considering liquidating PM's, and you should try to never swap physical pm's for fiat - trading for assets is OK when you're ready to eject

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:46 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

This debt crisis will indeed take between 10 to 15 years and a decade seems about right because PM's will be at their top over then.

 

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 00:39 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I tell you folks this.

10 years aint that long anymore.

I was in for a shock when my last wed. Updates for Mint Bullion went to 80.00 for ASE and 2500 for Gold. It stayed that way for about 10 minutes and then settled back to where they were. I don't know if it was the US Mint setting new pricing or what.... I would have been caught ankle deep in mud with the ocean gone and a oncoming tusnami wave.

It would have been the perfect knife catch. But sweated bullets as I scoured the net' entire PM related resources for similar pricing and struggled to get live tape on Sil and Gold to confirm. If that was true and stood within the hour or less.... there would have been a stampede unlike any experienced before this time and not likely to happen ever again.

 

I would think there may have been a few soiled pants in that Data Center when the masters on Tron-verse went AWW SHITE!!! HURRY!!! FIX THIS FAST!!!

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 11:31 | Link to Comment mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

It has been such a struggle for me to understand what is even meant by "selling" gold and silver.  "Taking money off the table" -- by "selling" money?

It's like listening to chemists from the middle ages talk about phlogiston.

In the time that I come from, all this landscape -- publicly traded equities, mutual funds, mortgages, mortgage-backed securities, credit default swaps, "government" bonds, "government"-backed currency, "government"-insured savings accounts, "guaranteed" pension plans -- it's gone. 

It's just all gone.

 

 

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:38 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I wish to buy your coin for 20 dollars spot value as set by London and then traded across the world. In the old days you called your Mint broker.

Today you simply type in a value of your purchase and wait. When someone else sells that coin eventually (A match) and after it executes both you and the counter party are taken care of. I have your coin and you have 20 dollars.

Hopefully you purchased that coin 30 years ago at 5 dollars and sit on a mountain of the stuff at your place or stored in a vault under your control with dues of course.

 

Don't even try to buy and sell stocks. By the time you get to a broker anywhere to buy something computer networks lie in wait to entrape you and strip you of all the money and then some faster than it takes for you to process mentally what just happened to that 4.00 share price of C being split with a new price of 40.00 as happened recently

 

Because your 100 share purchase of C at 4.00 (You thought.) executed at 40.00 now you owe the difference.

 

The rest of it... the talking heads on all sorts of shows about the market starting with Cramer who likes to pound things and hollar working all the way down to the dry eyes man who slowly pronounces very large words in different combinations until your eyes glaze over.

 

There really are only two entertaining movies to understand Markets.

 

"Wall street" latre 80's "Greed is good."

 

"Hudsucker Proxy" simple idea makes big profits.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 09:59 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Not if we have a sock puppet. With a sock puppet doing the talking i'd say we could get this debt puppy moving in the right direction in...10 to 15 days! Now STEP ASIDE......the debt meister is coming through#

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:53 | Link to Comment DCCynic
DCCynic's picture

I agree with Josh here. Commodities inflation Wage deflation.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:58 | Link to Comment Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

This article and the FT piece about the Fed pulling liquidity got me thinking: inflation or deflation? Might be time to revisit some basic assumptions. Or is it more psyops? Here's an althernative hypothesis - is this what it takes to get political cover for QExx?

We've all been so convinced that inflation is inevitable and now with a couple of articles and some talking heads (Roubini anyone?) we've got the mother of all black swans.

Is this enough to make me puke PMs? Jury still out, but some people will definitely move to take money off the table. Or is it enough to get people begging Uncle Ben for some QE relief: "Please, please, please. Give us some inflation!"

Then what? People are sitting on cash afraid to take the next move. Fed has signalled ZIRP for 2+ years. Eventually some folks will start jonesin' for a return. Cue a whiff of inflation and the stampede into equities will be in full force.

I have no idea if this will happen. I'm not willing to bet on it at this point. I'm just looking for a theory to connect the dots. The alternative is that no one has any clue, let alone any control, and we are on the verge of the Great Reset. Highest probability in my mind, but the economy and/or the markets won't stand still while we wait for an answer.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:39 | Link to Comment LynRobison
LynRobison's picture

Let's assume for a second that there is deflation. With deflation, the economy slows way down and government revenue drops. How does the federal government even come close to meeting its $100+ trillion in debt and obligations in the coming years? As Greenspan said recently, "The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default." (http://thedailybell.com/2772/Alan-Greenspan-We-Can-Always-Print-More-Money).

In short, deflation leads to the government having insufficient revenue to pay its debts, so the government has to print money to pay its debts, and that leads to hyperinflation of the U.S dollar. No?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I don't think they got their act right.

They look to their income balance sheets and indeed the governments income is dropping. So they say deflation.

But they don't really look at the consumer prices as a indicator of inflation/defaltion because that one is WAY UP.

And their logic seems right income up is inflation income down defaltion but if those 2 happen at the same time IT'S CALLED STAGFLATION!

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:20 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Of course there is inflation with much more to come. The only thing keeping a lid on it is stagnant wages and people grubbing for a few bucks to buy what they need while the governments around the world print like crazy. Little by little that drives up the prices of everything of value. The black swan is a rush by fiat money to anything real.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 19:15 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

crack up?  I'm looking hard at MCP with a twitchy finger...  I'm just surprised the pm's didn't come off more ahead of the next phase. My sense is that the next leg up in stock will be a sight to behold, spectacular historic ramp to the sky.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 21:25 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Forget stocks.

Hold on to your PM's tight the more the big powers teabag it and shove it under the rug the more it will stink because they are constantly stomping shit over it all.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:55 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

From Greg Canavan at The Daily reckoning:

"...consider these facts about how serious America's debt situation now is:

* The US Government ran a budget deficit of $1.24 trillion in 2008, $1.44 trillion in 2009, $1.58 trillion in 2010 and is on track for a deficit of around $1.3 trillion in 2011.

* Over the same time frame, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero and increased its asset holdings from $951bn at the end of 2007 to $2.85 trillion as of 27 July 2011. It simply printed money to purchase the assets.

* Not surprisingly then, currency in circulation in the US economy – the fuel for inflation – has jumped from $773.9bn in 2007 to $1.03 trillion as of 27 July. That's a 33 per cent surge in 3.5 years.

* Over the same time frame, the economy has grown just 5.2 per cent. That's in 'current' dollars. Adjusting for official inflation, which is more than likely bogus, the US economy has not grown since the third quarter of 2007.

So all this money printing by the Fed and debt issuance by the government has achieved absolutely nothing – apart from enriching the ruling class to the detriment of just about everyone else.

Money printing and fiscal largesse in other parts of the world have also only had fleeting impacts on economic growth. The message seems obvious. All the stimulus and increase in government debt is useless. It has a very short term and misleading effect on the economy. And it leaves a lasting legacy of an increase in a nation's total debt levels. "

"Central banks set the price of money and regulate that price every day. And as the evidence shows, they have done a pretty bad job. Taking the ability to create and set the price of money out of their hands would be a giant step forward in improving the economic system. "

"To do this, gold needs to be officially recognised as a tool in setting monetary policy. "

Read Mr Canavan at The Daily reckoning...he has some good thoughts on how to preserve your wealth.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:30 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Thanks for mentioning that site, been meaning to check it out. Many things the banks could do, but won't. It's us against them, as ever. 

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:07 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

PulauHantu29,

 

So all this money printing by the Fed and debt issuance by the government has achieved absolutely nothing 

Sure it has, made the banker(making the Bankers) 3-4% for buying Treasuries w/it( feeding the Fed), and at the same time, being an additional hidden to the Sheeple QE style ponzi program.IMHO

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:02 | Link to Comment Sledge
Sledge's picture


DO YOU SEE ME, TOECUTTER?!!

DO YOU SEE ME, MAN?!!!
Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:18 | Link to Comment caerus
caerus's picture

i am the nightrider...i'm a fuel injected suicide machine...i am the rocker...i am the roller..i am the out-of-controller!

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:54 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

is it chardonnay or pinot noir that you ingurgitate to become so eloquent...as to merit...in vino veritas?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:16 | Link to Comment swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

It may or may not be alcohol-related, but they are quoting to each other from Mad Max.  Rather a propos, I'd say.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Aragorn
Aragorn's picture
The Nightrider. That is his name. The Nightrider. Remember him...


...when you look at the night sky.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:03 | Link to Comment lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

Totally worthless blabber.  Little consideration of marco trends, of systemic crisis.  My guess is better than theirs, and I say the market is going much further down   If it goes up it will only be due to hyperinflation.  Its been a flat market for years considering inflation.  Thats for my institutional investors as well as for my retail investors.  THEREFORE, BUY GOLD AND SILVER.  My fee for institutional investors is $ 20,000 yearls, for retail investors $ 2,000.  Paid in gold or silver.  Actually have been recommending PMs to friends and family for 5 years, and all three people who listened are happy. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:06 | Link to Comment treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Sounds like the Titanic - load the wealthy 1st class passengers into lifeboats first, let the rest of them fend for themselves.  And the band played on until it didn't.  Housing was our iceberg, Bernanke is our captain, and our societies belief in the "unsinkable" market is the complacency that dooms us.  Except, off the port and starboard bow - we've got asia and the euro shooting at us -

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:15 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Sometime when you get a moment, have a look at what spikes in WTI and Brent in summer of 2008 did to the ability of low lifes to service their mortgages.

It is THAT which pushed housing over the edge and started the avalanche and be very sure you understand that summer 2008 was before Ben started the printing presses, so that price spike was not from printing.

It was from . . .what you know it was from.

It's forever.  All the efforts to put humpty dumpty back together will reach a point where more glue has to be shipped in, and the gasoline for the trucks shipping it is too expensive, and so he'll fall back down.  Over and over.  With fewer pieces glued in each time before the next fall.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:58 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

We go back to oxen and mule. It will take longer but employ more people along the way.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

+1

An economy is about keeping all of society going, not keeping the top 0.1% in the wealth they have come to expect.

Tired of hearing CEOs boast about record EPS in the first half of a conference call and then announcing massive staff layoffs in the second half.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:07 | Link to Comment Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

Sometime when you get a moment, have a look at what spikes in WTI and Brent in summer of 2008 did to the ability of ignorant home buyers to service the unsustainable mortgages sold to them by greedy low lifes.

Fixed it.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:09 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

It may be time to short Apple.

 

Seriously.

 

I can't understand how anyone would invest in 99% of corporate stocks at this stage of the game.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:15 | Link to Comment johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Shorting AAPL has broken many a man. It's a ballsy call but totally justified after the next mini-rally.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:18 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

It may be time to just forget about the stock market and do something more constructive with our time and energy.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:38 | Link to Comment treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

I'm a prepper, he's a prepper, wouldn't you like to be a prepper too? 

Old Dr.Pepper jingle - you may or may not remember.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:43 | Link to Comment firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

"It may be time to forget about the stock market..." Bam_man.

I took on that disposition in 2001 or so, after the NASDAQ taught me a little lesson in reality. (After owning CSCO, EMC and NTAP much of the way up and down.)

I learned, "diversified", does not mean within equities but among asset classes.

 

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

You're SO RIGHT!!! LET'S START OUR OWN PONZI SHEME!

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:18 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Note that cable TV companies recently announced the largest drop off of customer subscriptions they have ever had.  They blamed Netflix.

Netflix released their data.  They have the same problem, subs down.

AT&T and Verizon also announced subscription cratering.

Is it possible, just barely credible . . . THAT PEOPLE FINALLY HAVE RUN OUT OF SQUATTER RENT AND CAN'T PAY FOR SILLINESS ANYMORE?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:57 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Only to find that the Government no longer have the DTV vouchers to make the fleamarket boob tube rabbit ears work?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 20:53 | Link to Comment FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

I can pay but I no longer found them to be interesting.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 05:11 | Link to Comment Bitch Tits
Bitch Tits's picture

Not can't. Won't.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:30 | Link to Comment LetThemEatCake
LetThemEatCake's picture

I wouldn't short Apple. Apple has had fantastic growth and they have a lot of room to expand (buy Sony and get into mass consumer electronics, for example). If SHTF, consumers may spend a lot less on Apple products and their stock may decline (they might go bankrupt), however, they have a sound business and a fantastic brand. If I would short individual stocks (I am short technology and financial, but the whole sectors), I would try to find truly shitty businesses, because shitty business in a horrible business environment can only go down (and some businesses, even if we enter a serious depression, will thrive).

And, yes, I realize that I am net short Apple, I just wouldn't single them out.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Dadburnitpa
Dadburnitpa's picture

However, as we have often seen in the past 25 years, the tech "Generals" are the last ones to be taken out back and shot in the head.  AAPL will eventually eat a bullet, but not before all the troopers and junior officers are put up against the wall first.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:26 | Link to Comment Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

we assign a higher probability to our bear case than bull case, preventing us from becoming increasingly optimistic

Which sort of gives the game away really.

They don't see their "job" as being realistic assessors of the market.

They desperately want to be "optimistic".

But even they can no longer conceal or spin the obvious.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:28 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture

with odds like that you're way better off playing 21 in Vegas.

 

My buddies wanted to be firemen, farmers or policemen, something like that. Not me, I just wanted to steal people's money!
John Dillinger

Always be nice to bankers. Always be nice to pension fund managers. Always be nice to the media. In that order.
John Gotti

You can imagine my embarrassment when I killed the wrong guy.
Joe Valachi

You can get more with a kind word and a gun than you can get with just a kind word.
Willie Sutton

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Capitalism is the legitimate racket of the ruling class.

-Al Capone

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Caviar, great dude to be quoting...................LOL

Capitalism is the BEST system ever concieved.( but like a deadly weapon ,in the wrong hands, and with a FEW in ultimate control, yes you have a probelm).

 But in no other system, could anyone come from nothing, to be something,on their own merits, and hard work.

It's what built this nation, and kept it at the #1 slot, until the money changers got into our Temple.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 10:12 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I thought they were called economists.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:31 | Link to Comment DarkStarDog
DarkStarDog's picture

Too bad they wasted so much time and credit proping up the markets over the past two and half years.  I think we could of already hit S&P 444 and be on  our way to rebuilding... but NNNOOOOOO  !  The evil banksters had to steal more from the dumb ass circus freaks in the beltway...  F U Hank Paulson !!!  F U Burnack  !!!  F U Timmah !!!  Revolution with a solution !  Get Out Mom & Pop ! dont stand there...  turn off the TV take the 10% early withdraw fee and run like hell !!!    that is all, I feel better now.  but not much. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:32 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

The S&P is a lagging indicator of the economy. We are in a recession now and only skewed gov. Numbers say otherwise. Even using gov
GDP , after adjusting for real inflation, they have been negative for 2
Quarters. Investing in stock market is foolish because it is rigged.
Soon many companies are going to go private to avoid pitfalls of a
Collapsing market. Gold and silver are not the only way to protect
Against market collapse and inflation, but they are the easiest.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

Also, gold and silver discontinue the sustained fees that financial institutions and governments earn off other asset classes even after alledged "ownership".

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:35 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

I don't even bother with these squids. I do not buy most stocks and have not for a long time. Why take a chance with a broken market and a broken country Sure, profits are good in many cases, but going forward, consumer still tapped out and part of the reason for such robust corporate profits....we do not hire anymore. Unless we have to.

Still too early for me to short and no way will I short AAPL when it has more cash then turbo tax Timmaay and America. 70 billion+ and counting.

It is ironic, as most of you know for a few hours Apple was #1 in market cap, ahead of Exxon. The irony is, they make almost nothing in this country. The new economy.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:42 | Link to Comment Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

MS has perfectly hedged its rosy outlook by spoonfeeding its retail clients with the rosy view, while whispering the apocalypse case to its institutional clients.

The greatest flim flam sale and moral crime ever has been going on since the invention of the 401k with Wall Street luring small investors into the markets so that they can be preyed upon like plankton by the clients who really count, and Wall Street traders who see themselves above everyone.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:29 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Yea and I turned 21 to join the cloud of plankton signing up the 401k papers time and time again never knowing the true moral hazard of the "Sea" as it were while whales cruised by feeding.

 

And you wonder why I feel truly anger decades later, sort of like a star....

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:22 | Link to Comment Zedge Hero
Zedge Hero's picture

Long Long Time ago…..

I can still remember how that money used to make me smile.

 And I knew if I had my choice

 That I could hear those peoples voice

 And, maybe, they’d be happy for a while.

 

 But September 08 made me shiver

 And I began collecting Silver

 Bad news on the doorstep;

 I couldn’t take one more step.

 

 I can’t remember if I cried

 When I read about the housing slide,

 But something touched me deep inside

 The day the money died.

 

 So bye-bye, to the American lie..

 Drove my stock to the top,

 And the market went dry.

And them Wall Street boys were thinking risky with lies

 Saying’, "this’ll be the day that we die.

 "this’ll be the day that we die."

 

 Did you write loans for the Bank,

 And do you have faith in Ben Bernank,

 for if the Government tells you so?

 Do you believe in too big to fail,

 Is you house now up for Sale?

And can you teach me how to refinance real slow

 

Well, I know that you’re still in love with this

 cause I see it in your complete abyss

 We really both can choose

 Man, I hate those derivatives too.

 

 I was a lonely disgruntled American buck

 With a sick sensation that started to suck

 But I knew I was out of luck

 The day the money died.

 

 We started singin’, "bye-bye, to the american lie."

 Drove my stock to the top,

 And the market went dry.

 And them Wall street boys were thinkng risky with lies

 Saying’, "this’ll be the day that we die.

 "this’ll be the day that we die."

 

 Now for three years we’ve been on our own

 While Bank’s got fat on a rollin’ loan,

 But that’s not how it used to be.

 When geithner says live within our means,

As a puppet from the powers that be

 But a silence came from you and me,

 

Oh, and while the US was looking down,

China is stealing it’s thorny crown.

 Europe Union was adjourned;

Another bailout was returned.

 

And while Obama read a book on marx,

The people protested in the park,

And we sold gold in the dark

 The day the money died.

 

 We were singin’, "bye-bye, to the american lie."

 Drove my stock to the top,

And the market went dry.

 And them Wall street boys were thinkng risky with lies Saying’,

"this’ll be the day that we die.

 "this’ll be the day that we die."

 

 bets, and debts in a summer sweat.

 The stock fell off cause of Euorpean debt,

World Markets high and falling faaaast.

It’s still too high for the price of gas.

The politicians debt bill did pass,

 With downgrade rating in a flash

 

 Now the European air was filled with fumes

All the riots were just starting to exhume.

We all got up to fight,

Oh, but we never got the right

`cause the FED tried to print some more

 The money they added was making us poor.

 Do you recall the horror

The day the money died?

 

 We were singin’, "bye-bye, to the american lie."

 Drove my stock to the top,

 And the market went dry.

 And them Wall street boys were thinkng risky with lies

Saying’, "this’ll be the day that we die.

 "this’ll be the day that we die."

 

 Oh, and there we were all in one place,

 401 k’s all lost in space

 With no time left to start again.

So come on: Ben be nimble, Ben be quick!

The Federal Reserve and that magic stick

 Cause the printing press is the devil’s only friend.

 

Oh, and as I watched him on the stage

My hands were clenched in fists of rage.

No angel born in hell

Could break that Chairmen’s spell.

And as the Gold climbed high into the night

 To light the path that was actually right,

 I saw Bernanke laughing with delight

 The day the money died

 

 He was even singin’, "bye-bye, to the american lie."

 Drove my stock to the top,

 And the market went dry.

 And them Wall street boys were thinkng risky with lies

 Saying’, "this’ll be the day that we die.

 "this’ll be the day that we die."

 

 I bought some gold and sang the blues

 Hoping for some happy news

 Banks got tired and burned away.

 I went down to the old coin store

 Where I’d bought silver years before,

 But the man there said my money wouldn’t pay.

 

 And in the Wall street: the brokers screamed,

 The CEO's cried, and oil creamed.

But not a word was spoken;

The global markets all were broken.

 And the two men I admire most:

 Ron Paul and the Thomas Jefferson’s ghost,

They caught the last train for the coast

 The day the money died.

 

 And they were even singin’, "bye-bye, to the american lie."

Drove my stock to the top,

 And the market went dry.

 And them Wall street boys were thinkng risky with lies

 Saying’, "this’ll be the day that we die.

"this’ll be the day that we die."

 

they were even singin’,

"bye-bye, to the american lie."

Drove my stock to the top, And the market went dry.

 And them Wall street boys were thinkng risky with lies

Saying’, "this’ll be the day that we die.

"this’ll be the day that we die."

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:56 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

You left out Ammunition and Weapons.

Otherwise very good.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

What about girls? Y r they always left out of the Apocalypse?

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 02:30 | Link to Comment spdrdr
spdrdr's picture

Utterly magnificent, ZHero.

Utterly magnificent.

Congratulations upon penning the anthem of the times..........

 

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 07:23 | Link to Comment N57Mike
N57Mike's picture

teriffic,

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 10:30 | Link to Comment sherryw
sherryw's picture

Absolutely fabulous!

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 12:42 | Link to Comment mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Beautiful. 

Now do the part where you take a video of all your friends singing bits of it as they walk toward the camera. 

hey, maybe you could get ZH people to all contribute snippets.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:32 | Link to Comment DarkStarDog
DarkStarDog's picture

Money 4 Nuttin...  time to rock out !   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gs7q9L_AM30

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:34 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

That seems like wide range for the SP.  Apparently, 'Depends' aren't just adult diapers anymore.

Depends on QE3, and if Euroland tanks (more).

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:40 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

It never ceases to amaze me that these sell-side swamis get paid big fiat for coin flippin'. They pick heads or tails. Who actually pays attention to this bullshit ?? ( except for laughs ) 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:52 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I flip bullion.

Buy a bar, sell it higher than what I bought it for.

Wait for market to forget's its low and get into it again.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:49 | Link to Comment MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

How is 1,004 - 1,425 a 'target'? That's more of a barn door. My target is -3 to 1,776.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:50 | Link to Comment silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

The IMF will soon bail the whole world out with 100t worth of SDR's..The EU and Fed etc. is just buying time right now until the IMF gets the kinks worked out..The SDR will be backed with 10% - 15% of Gold..The rest of the basket will be filled with paper currencies im sorry to say...

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:55 | Link to Comment kiloton
kiloton's picture

You misspelled grandeur.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:56 | Link to Comment jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

Ha ha, that's one of my favorites part to the movie.  My friends and I reference that all the time.  Soul Glo with Erik LaSalle of ER.  McDowell's...two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions, but our bun doesn't have sesame seeds.

The insiders are freaking out all over the globe.  Crash or Hyperinflationary explosion dead ahead. 

Only Glass-Steagall avoids this fate.  Only Glass-Steagall can neuter it. 

Trillions for the banksters, austerity for the people.  That's the plan.  We don't have trickle down economics.  We have the waterfall flowing upwards, and the lake is getting dry.

Destroy their fraudulent claims instead of bailing them out and killing the people to do it.

Flash mobs of Philly and Chicago...wisconsin state fair, etc are just the beginning of the london riot effects here.  The 'state' austerity is extreme, the federal austerity is only starting (still small), and while that's what is usually focused on, it is but a piece of the puzzle. 

I don't expect BofA, Societe Generale, and Banco Santander to be around much longer without massive bailouts.  Impeach NerObama, pass Glass-Steagall.  The republicans/tea party are irrelevant as they are the same as Nero just from a different side of bankster control.

 

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:45 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Nero plays his harp while Rome burns. What instrument does Barry know how to play according to your analogy? A harmonica? If he were Clinton...harMonica was a goner...in his case I feel a Michel..OB... banjo, in the form of a twanged beer bottle is more appropriate. With a banjo on my knee I play thee a sweet, beer balad, oh Michelle, ma Michelle, it'll soon be October fest!

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:58 | Link to Comment Prof Gulliver
Prof Gulliver's picture

I thought we always do the opposite of whatever it is MS or GS tells us to do.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:03 | Link to Comment I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

California reports eighth-grade dropout rate for first time

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-drop-out-20110811,0,1975112.story

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:13 | Link to Comment I am Jobe
Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:01 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

I think Schiff nails it............ should be obvious to even dullards.

 http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff081211.html

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:18 | Link to Comment RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

The whistling past the graveyard is positively deafening.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:46 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Morgue Stanwee can go fuck themselves. The taxpayer financed shell game is over.

Obama voters are becoming less blind

Korn - Blind

How will the MSM continue to sell Despotism? Lets watch epic failure unfold. Bring your bag of popcorn. LOL

 

Despotism & Democracy

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:54 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

one man in the name of Gov.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:51 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

all the world's a stage - Shakespeare

exit stage right - Snagglepuss

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 20:03 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

and then there is china.  if they print later in 2011, it's not gonna do much when the worlds economic support is broken.  so maybe 1010 on the S&P is actually optimistic.  

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 21:07 | Link to Comment jkings1
jkings1's picture

You want apocalyptic? Listen to a guy who was a NY City radio station Saturday. The interview is here. In his very understated way of speaking, he pretty much tells the story of both 40 years of financial repression and eventual gold prices that could hit multiples of $10,000 not just $10k. It;s the first two segments on http://goldandsilverradio.com/ that were archived from a live broadcast earlier today.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:26 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Morning radio in NYC as I roll out of the markets at sunrise in a empty 18 wheeler heading to the west coast for another meat load was filled with casulty roll call and which hospitals they were in. Dead or alive. Used to be 60 or so names a morning out of 8 million or so. Not too bad I reckon.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 23:18 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

soros riding germany hard to accept eurobond program...its not too far away....

soros sounds like a certain treasury secretary right before congress approved a gazillion dollar tarp program

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2011/08/12/germany-must-defend-the-euro/

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 13:41 | Link to Comment Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Do not worry ,jobs data will soon catch up to real reality.

Then ,you will get your downside.Its coming.Unless of course one tool gets another out of the box and they tweak reality a bit more.

Risk on , Risk off ,Sh_t Risk in between.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 16:17 | Link to Comment jedimarkus
jedimarkus's picture

Do you think I could sell them some naked SP 1550 calls?

 

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:01 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

But.. BUT! BUT!!

what about the Trillions Pumped into Wall Street?

how can this be?

America is has pumped the markets so that the Major Players could sell off before the major down slide?

so that the Major Players could buy back in at a discount??

but what about Main Street?

They are Fucked coming and going?

now is the time to tighten our belts and dig in for the hard times? after the powers that be have been re-capitalized?

but what about all those little people?

why do we need to kill them off for?

is the quality of life really going to be that much better for those at the top once they are all gone?

how much energy can they really use?

are they all so tapped out that not one more drop of blood can be squeezed from them?

what a shame that the ruling class has decided that the World is a better place minus as many of the little people as possible.

 

wait? where is my tin foil hat and my alien space ship? we need to detract from the facts above some how to create a sense of comfort within the sheepish consumers who have lost the credit worthiness! LOL!!

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