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Morgan Stanley Issues Goldman Mirror Image Call: Says To Sell EURUSD With 1.30 Target
And so the two most "credible" investment banks have had their say on the EURUSD as a result of today's 250 pip surge in the EURUSD: while Goldman earlier said to buy, buy, buy (i.e., sell) every EURUSD pip until 1.40, here is Morgan Stanley with the mirror image call.
Today we entered a short EUR/USD trade at 1.3750. While Italian 10-year bond yields have tightened from the highs reached earlier this week, we believe yields still well above 6% are unsustainable for a debt market of 1.9tr EUR (third largest in the world). This means that Italy will need to spend nearly 10% of its annual GDP on interest payments alone. Meanwhile, political uncertainties add to concerns in the Eurozone, with new regimes in Greece and Italy. We remain fundamentally bearish on EUR, and believe it will retest 1.30 as Italy runs the risk of being “too big to save.”
Confused yet? Why bother. Maybe Goldman can just skip the foreplay, dump its entire EUR inventory to Morgan Stanley and spare everyone else the drama and paternity tests.
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'Confused yet? Why bother. Maybe Goldman can just skip the foreplay, dump its entire EUR inventory to Morgan Stanley and spare everyone else the drama and paternity tests..'
+1
I'm thinking these EUR/USD bounces have more to do with flows and payments (indirect investments) than they do TA or Fundi's.. There is no reason on god's green earth the Euro should be 20% over-valued.. with all the risk out there..
Citi's Englander is on the side of MS with the 1.30 EUR/USD. That GS call is being made by a discredited douchebag, who is ignoring the better advice of countless colleagues.
Since ES trades with the EURUSD correlation nearly perfectly nowdays, I guess Morgan Stanley is saying its time to short the SPX
It means Goldman is entering risk off mode and MS is buying everything.
So we have to decide who's crafty and who's got their head up their ass? Uh. l'm gonna go with Goldman...
With sufficient volatility, could they both be right?
In this market, I would think so.
It means Goldman and MS are entering distraction mode as the EUR/USD pair devalues against everything else (see WTI).
Please just keep your binoculars trained on those two highly regarded horses, because God forbid the markets come to realize that the Race To The Bottom is more than a two horse race! Why? Those 'long-shots' are where the fat odds and positive P&L is right now; nobody wants a crowded trade up in The Jockey Club.
Remember the US Dollar Index component weighting:
Euro (EUR) 0.576
Japanese Yen (JPY) 0.136
British Pound (GBP) 0.119
Canadian Dollar (CAD) 0.091
Swedish Krona (SEK) 0.042
Swiss France (CHF) 0.036
jdelano postulated the following:
I see ... Goldman is crafty and has their head up their ass. This illustrates the quantum superposition of the states of brilliance and batshittiness inherent in every GS investment strategy. This leads to the paradox known as Schroedinger's Rat, wherein the result of any given GS investment strategy exists simultaneously in a state of astronomical profit and devastating loss. It remains in this state until it is observed on ZH, whereupon the state collapses into one or the other.
if it's somehow here to be a posting/postulating about positioning for that ultimate risk, epistemology, the usual trite-and-true would of course posit the illusory in-the-box/outta-the-box derivitive thinking
suffering under such a misconception, and yet anyway somehow profit by it, Fully Delusional, naturally enough leads to such apodictic results as being again, and again, just this thoroughly dicked all over again . . .
Whereby continually thinking that 1entity has to borrow from this Peter to pay that paul, Thereby habitually assuming there are always 2competitors, does indeed result again and again in said crosspurposes x what should most certainly by now/pay later be its pperfectly clear Identity
you down with 1PP?
yeh you know meaning
PPonzi
ergo, words fail: so they do it with numbers
or, in terms still continually used and evidently acceptable here on wallst as at z, #1 and #2, whereby only the-trickle-down/or up-your-ass theory's considered, is it nevertheless questionable why behind-the-scenes of this now all-but-obvious yet ill Usury so many here seem to not just rely but insist upon such received wisdom as is again and again giving one another the heads-up No.2
repeatedly. and, the hidden hand, so-far-up as to seize right-on-up-and-through what's left of a spine whose very backbone is now here a brain left saying uh oh. fucked
again. and again, once-you-start-talkin-to-the-hand . . . http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwDbd4jQpkA&feature=related
I'm not sure Stolper's 1.40 call means anything for GS, while MS is probably still bullish on French banks...
<=== they're both lying!
<=== disagree w/ tyler
none of the above ===> L0L!!!
wait! ============> wtf?
<=== none of the above [L0L!!!]
<=== wtf?
I go with the crooks who have the best connection with the fraud reserve and the government.
I think stock market macro analysts and the financial press are mainly idiots and can comprehend only one "commonly held correlation" (usually complete bullshit) at a time. Because they focus only one item at a time, this makes the risk off/risk on volatility bullshit even it worse, since equity traders actually believe them, miraculously. Bond investors are smarter. Not sure of FX traders...
August: Debt Ceiling not pushed up=Bad. Risk off was globally taking place every day the debt ceiling was not lifted. The end of the drama=S&P downgrades USA from AAA.
September: EFSF expansion to put up 165% overguarantees and remove cash buffers from EFSF bonds not fully approved by all Eurozone parliaments=Bad. The end of the drama=EFSF expansion passed by forcing Slovakian government to resign.
October: Greece PSI to go through with -50% and full acceptance of austerity. The end of the drama=still pending, but at least G-Pap is out and austrerity on the way in.
November: Italy to go over 7% yield. The end of the drama=still bending, but Bunga Bunga out.
December: I predict we go back to August, i.e. start watching the US debt ceiling....
January: I predict China real estate bubble will be the top watch list item.
Tyler, you rock.
Bloomberg reporting that gold optimism is highest in futures market since 2004. Could be a time to take the gas off the only currency in a bull market.
It is countdown to ECB announcing non sterilization. Then it will be parity time. http://www.ftense.com/
I've always thought it'd be cheaper for MS to dump its research departments et al and play the other side of GS's advice.
If that day now has come, we are a lot closer to a collapse than I thought.
If it is true that they are on opposing sides of this bet, we are in fact much closer to sharks eating sharks because the bait fish are all eaten up (or out of the pool).
It's a pure ponzi play if they are --- MS will buy Goldman's crap right now, and Goldman will return the favor when given the word down the road - collusion, B!tchez
Are they really on opposite sides? Or has one of them made a living out of doing the opposite of what it says.
They're both tentacles of the Fed in my estimation - separate army units of the same Legion that will play nice to survive in a crisis
Fellow ZeroHedgers I got an evil scenario to submit to you:
The evil masters will try to fake a Gold bubble bursting by having Gold close the year in negative territory for the first time in more than 10 years. They will do that by painting a double top on the monthly charts. The last top on a monthly closing basis was about $1838 and so they might aim for a double top below that by the end of this month. Then Gold must fall below $1400 by year end to give a negative close for the year.
They might achieve this if the eurozone shit keeps worsening and if we get recessions here and there and with a tumbling euro and a rising dollar.
This is not a prediction or a forecast, it is just an evil scenario that could happen which I’m submitting for your consideration.
What do you think ?
I don't see how this is possible without crashing the equities markets.
was it engineered to get rid of all shorts, have everyone go long, crash markets overnight, which would run thru all stop loss programs? YOU BET!!!
I cant wait till they do that.
a smash and grab?
Not a problem for most folks on ZH who heard about gold before this year. I hope you are right as I am sitting on a bit of cash exactly for that possibility.
Again I’m not making a prediction but yes if it happened it would be a phenomenal buying opportunity if you got the cash.
However, I think it would scare lots of people who would sell at the worst time !
'What do you think ?'
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-11/gold-traders-most-bullish-since...
That's usually a bearish sign because statistically the majority are losers !
Holy shit. Let gold go below 1400 and I would back the fucking truck up.
Hmmmm...interesting.
And these GS and MS banksters are being paid how much to issue completely opposite views on the same day?
so it is all a head game to occupy your mind and
divert your attention from the real issue?
You can't make this shit up.
2 different elite groups enter the arena, both customer books will get fucked.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
The question I have is how large is the short position they entered. Was it a very large and significant position ? Or just 10K ?
Then they long on EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD etc...
Feel like I'm sitting on the den couch between two angry silverback mountain gorillas play Pong. Does it matter who wins?
Good cop, bad cop.
Take turns.
Netherlands' Wilders investigates return of guilder
If the report is positive, the party will press for a referendum on leaving the euro, party leader Geert Wilders says in Friday's Telegraaf.
http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2011/11/pvv_investigates_return_of...
If the weak countries exit the euro (as treaties seem to be re-drafted for this outcome), then the euro, in essence the new DM, becomes a strong buy.
Holy shit is that some of the absolute best stuf from the Tyler's ever, and the really scary part is that they're, again, spot fucking on...
Love to all.
ms has the 1.3 call for weeks; together with shitty I think. Even I heard about it...
2012 EURO = $.75 Thats what its worth if you print enough to stabalize the eurozone $.75 LMAO
Goldman Chase