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Morgan Stanley Issues Shocker With First 2012 Forecast: Says S&P Will Close Year At 1167, Sees Consensus As Too Optimistic

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The market has not even opened for regular trading for the first trading day of the year and already predictions for the final print are made. Enter Morgan Stanley, which unlike last year, when it was painfully bullish has come out with an uncharacteristic and quite bearish prediction: "We are establishing a 2012 year-end price target of 1167, representing 7% downside from today’s price. The consensus top-down view has coalesced, with limited variation, around 1350, making our forecast 13% more conservative than the “muddle  through” scenario implied by consensus." And the primary reason for this - a collapse in earnings predictions: "We are launching our 2013 EPS estimate of $103.1, 15% below the bottom-up consensus forecast of $121.1." Time to reevaluate those record corporate profit margin assumptions? That said, make no mistake - just like SocGen, Goldman, UBS and everyone else, the sole purpose of these bearish forecasts is to get the market to drop low enough to give the Fed cover for QE X. And let's not forget that Morgan Stanley's new chief economist is none other than Vince Reinhart, the man who personally recommended selling Treasury puts to get rates lower almost a decade ago. Because as Adam Parker, who made the forecast, knows all too well, if the market indeed closes red for 2012, so will Wall Street bonuses.

First, here is MS' brief review of 2011:

In retrospect, the resiliency of the US equity market in the face of macro volatility was surprising in 2011. The SPX ending the year essentially unchanged and the Dow ending up 6% in 2011 were better outcomes than we anticipated, with the former slightly above our year-end target of 1238 established on January 3rd of 2011. However, the multiple contracted as we expected, given that SPX earnings appear to have grown roughly 17% in 2011. Multiple contraction remains our core thesis about the US equity market (please see: January 3rd, 2011: Initiating Coverage – The 2011 Playbook, January 10th, 2011: Expanding on Our Contraction Thesis and July 5th, 2011: Could the Multiple Go to 10x?).

 

This view is consistent with Morgan Stanley chief US Economist Vincent Reinhart’s “After the Fall” paper, which focused on low growth rates post financial crises (C. Reinhart and V. Reinhart, "After the Fall," FRB Kansas City, Jackson Hole Symposium, August 2010). Underlying the total market performance were some interesting major themes. Quality outperformed junk by nearly 12%, and growth outperformed value by almost 10%, both of which we anticipated (see January 18th, 2011: The Quality / Junk Debate and May 23rd, 2011: Do You Have Style?). Further, mega caps began outperforming in May and outperformed small caps by almost 540 basis points in 2011, something we previewed on March  21st, 2011 (Will Mega and Large Caps Remain an Inferior Asset Class?). We offered specific mega cap stock ideas on May 9th, 2011: A Five-YearView of the $100 Billion Market Cap. Club).

 

Sector betting was skewed toward the defensive, with utilities, health care, and staples the top 3 performing sectors in 2011 (all of which we  overweight). We did not recommend financials, materials, or industrials all year, the three worst performing sectors in 2011 in the GICS ten. Our MOST Strategic Portfolio, a combination of fundamental and quantitative disciplines, outperformed the market by 190 basis points in 2011. For those unfamiliar with the portfolio, please see the back part of this note, which lists current stock picks as well as those deleted during the year. 

 

The portfolio had 60% turnover in 2011 and has an average market capitalization of over $50 billion, in order to enable avid followers to mirror  the portfolio composition.

 

It truly ended up being a flat year. Within the top 500 market capitalization stocks, 246 ended the year down, and 254 up. Winners and losers: Petrohawk Energy (acquired), El Paso (acquired), ISRG, ALXN, and MA were the best five performing S&P stocks in 2011. FSLR, CREE, ANR,  ROVI, and NFLX were the five worst performing stocks.

 

Adjusting for market capitalization (to better show the biggest contributors to a portfolio manager’s performance) changes the list. AAPL, XOM, IBM, PM, PFE, CVX, MCD, WMT, V, and INTC were the biggest 10 contributors, adjusting for size, in 2011. The biggest stocks to avoid included  BAC, C, GS, HPQ, and JPM. Making a bet on integrated oil and select technology within mega caps, and avoiding financials, were keys to success.

And now looking at the future:

Our 2012 S&P500 Forecast

 

The switch of the calendar is more psychological than anything else and doesn’t necessarily mean huge rotations will occur by style, substance, or size. As such, we think some of the major themes we saw in 2011 are still in place today. We prefer mega caps to the broader market, growth over value, and quality to junk.

 

Our year-end 2012 price target for the S&P500 is 1167, a price implying 7% downside from today’s price by year-end (Exhibit 2). The consensus top-down view for 2012 is 1350, making our outlook 13% more cautious than the consensus top-down call. While top-down expectations are clearly less sanguine for 2012 than they were for 2011 at this time a year ago, there is little variation among the top-down forecasts, implying that a “muddle-through” scenario for the economy and earnings is the consensus. We think the risk-reward is skewed to the negative. Our bear case for the S&P500 is 944, and our bull case 1450. Accounting for the probabilities we see as likely, our expectation for the S&P500 by year-end 2012 is 1167.

 

 

We are launching our 2013 EPS estimate of $103.1, 15% below the bottom-up consensus forecast of $121.1.

 

We made some minor changes to our 2011 and 2012 EPS estimates, modestly raising 2011 from $96 to $97.4, in-line with the consensus forecast. For 2012, we are lowering our estimate from $103 to $100. Less labor productivity and a stronger US dollar are among the key drivers for plateauing profits in our base case. Our 2013 EPS forecast of $103.1 is well below the $121.1 forecasted by bottom-up analysts (Exhibit 3).

And the key themes for 2012 from MS (for full detail see attached report):

  1. We forecast continued market multiple contraction.
  2. We believe the 2012 and 2013 analyst estimates are too high.
  3. Capital Use and Its Consequences Will Matter

Our prediction is that until Bernanke announces $800 billion in LSAPs, most likely split half and half between MBS and USTs, the negative tone out of the banks will not change one bit.

MS 2012 Forecast

 

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Tue, 01/03/2012 - 08:45 | 2028237 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Whoops. MS must have missed the cheerleader meeting at Bubblevision and inside the White House.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 08:47 | 2028241 knight99
knight99's picture

still not low enough

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:15 | 2028289 achmachat
achmachat's picture

year of the bear.... bitchez?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:37 | 2028336 Momauguin Joe
Momauguin Joe's picture

Vegas Over/Under on the S&P is $1,000.00.

 

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:52 | 2028360 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Morgan Stanley has historically been more transparent and more grounded than its peers.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:53 | 2028368 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Probability of bear case is 85% (Approaching certainty), and the probability weighted S&P price target of the bear case is actually -9.515%. Pretty stupid to include the bull case to make the figure -7.2%, as the bear case is approaching certainty making the bull case irrelevant - you can't have both a bull and bear market simultaneously in real life. But yeah, it probably isn't low enough. 

 

I look forward to their commodities outlook. If they are forecasting headwinds and caution as they did last month, then the rest of the squids are bound to follow suit, which will be an opportunity for the rest of us to go contrary to their expectations with physicals. (If you're still ballsy enough to dabble in the markets, that is).

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 08:45 | 2028239 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Hedge Fund Bridgewater also peeing all over 2012..

http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2012-01-03/bridgewater-takes-grim-vi...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 08:45 | 2028240 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

This cant be right - a sell side firm looking for a down year in stks???!!!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 08:52 | 2028254 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Well, they do try to cover themselves with that 500 point spread in their S&P number- soooo invaluable, this prediction......

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 08:53 | 2028258 Quintus
Quintus's picture

As the article notes, this is all about getting QEwhatever out of the blocks asap.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 08:50 | 2028251 Irish66
Irish66's picture

I'm amazed anyone pays these people to manage their money

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 08:54 | 2028260 sabra1
sabra1's picture

won't be long 'till they just close your account, and take your money!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:02 | 2028253 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

They say "muddle" I say piss puddle, let's call the whole thing off...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 08:59 | 2028266 Chippewa Partners
Chippewa Partners's picture

They needed a reason to bang their retail accounts right off the bat to generate some commish.   It's business as usual with these brokers.  They will be flippin and switchin today over at MS!!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:10 | 2028278 gwar5
gwar5's picture

S&P 1167 is too optimistic if reflation doesn't work. Not working so good lately given the massive amount of money poured in. 

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:15 | 2028290 Chappy
Chappy's picture

Look at the futures.  At this rate, it will only take two weeks for the market to go up 20%. 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:52 | 2028364 SimpleandConfused
SimpleandConfused's picture

Sure seems that way.  I think I have read the market is going to implode since 2009; yet here we are, far above the 2009 lows and just grinding along.

Maybe S&P +20% will happen, but who knows.  Maybe U3 +20% will happen as well, but who cares?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:24 | 2028303 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

useless report....this one is much better::

 

http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_ShortestLetterEver_3Q11.pdf

 

check out the SnP forecast ....exhibit 1

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:25 | 2028314 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

@Tense Indian

Oh... Just wait for the REAL INTERESTING ONE... The one that says that there's a 50-50 chance that they'll be correct...

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:51 | 2028309 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Our 2013 EPS forecast of $103.1 is well below the $121.1 forecasted by bottom-up analysts (Exhibit 3).

So I'm assuming that Lazlo Birinyi gave his ruler & purple crayon away as a Christmas present this year... Where TF do they come up with these numbers? Uh yeah, if they kick every company out of the S&P except for oil & gas services & AAPL, the Euro blows up, Obama gets re-elected, & Krugman gets his space alien attack... stocks "may or may not" end somewhere between 1167 & 1350...

What a fucking joke...

Now tell me who's going to win Dancing With the Stars & give me the over/under on how many Kardashian weddings/divorces there will be...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 10:41 | 2028531 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Kardashian: Weddings - One.  Divorces - One (by default).  Porn videos - two.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:25 | 2028315 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

The "Street" has been doing everything under the sun to scare people/sheeple out of the markets this year.  Now in whose interests could that possibly be?  It's getting amusing.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:26 | 2028317 redytogo
redytogo's picture

Market outlook...GET OUT!!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:41 | 2028342 SimpleandConfused
SimpleandConfused's picture

Man, futures are banging.  Of course the $ is down.  Does anything else matter to these index valuations anymore?  Just seems to be $ down, market up.

With Ben loving an upmarket maybe more than life itself, can't he make himself quite happy by simply keeping the $ down?  Looks almost too simple; I am confused.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:53 | 2028366 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Depeends on how many countries/banks get bailied out. They can print 'n bail for a while more. I prediict flat year with volatility.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 10:14 | 2028444 sabra1
sabra1's picture

the speech the bernank gave in 2002, outlined exactly, what has taken place so far! the final act is a 40% devaluation of the dollar! it'll happen overnight, following a bank holiday, internet down! this joke of a stock market is just a sideshow people! the intent is to also crash PM's, induce panic selling, whereby the globalists would scoop up bargain basement prices!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 10:30 | 2028494 mn2
mn2's picture

Dont listen to the negative comments....up 20% min on all US indexes

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 10:44 | 2028539 The_Emperor
The_Emperor's picture

I hope for MS that they are right otherwise if the credit spreads get lower they will have a massive hit on their net profit with their Debt Value Adjustment

theimperatore.blogspot.com

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 13:25 | 2029186 Apocalicious
Apocalicious's picture

Do not try to bend the spoon - that's impossible. Instead, only try to realize the truth: there is no spoon.

 

We do not have markets anymore. Markets move based upon rational actions of wealth maximizing, informed participants. Investors today are guessing at the actions of our feudal overlords. Who will print? Who will bail out who? Who will be able to extend and pretend?

 

If the Euro crumbles and we hang on, the dollar will surge. We will extend and get by - for now. If we try to fill the hole in Europe, the dollar will plunge and gold will surge. Whatever happens to the capital markets will be driven by things we cannot predict because they are based on the irrational actions of ill-informed, if well-intentioned regulators.

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