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Morgan Stanley Says Europe's Pandora's Box Has Been Opened
Have a sinking suspicion that the way the Eurozone has handled the past week's Greek threat has set the stage for the collapse of the Eurozone (here's looking at you Italy, over and over) now that Merkozy has made the possibility of a country leaving the Eurozone all too real? You are not alone: Morgan Stanley's Joachim Fels has just sent a note to clients in which he not only commingles three of the catchiest and most abused apocalyptic phrases of our time ("Emperor has no clothes", "Water Pistol not Bazooka" and "Pandora's Box") he also warns, in no uncertain terms, that "by raising the possibility that a country might (be forced to) leave the euro, core European governments may have set in motion a sequence of events which could potentially lead to runs on sovereigns and banks in peripheral countries that make everything we have seen so far in this crisis look benign." And when a major investment bank, itself susceptible to bank runs warns of, well, bank runs, you listen.
Full note (highlights ours):
The Emperor has no clothes. This coming week markets are likely to continue to grapple with the notion that the ‘comprehensive solution’ presented after the EU Summit on October 26 is neither comprehensive nor a solution. First, bank recapitalisation was always about curing the symptoms rather than the disease – sovereign risk. And by giving banks until mid-2012 to meet the capital ratio target, governments have likely set in motion a wave of deleveraging that could have severe economic and market consequences. Second, the leveraged EFSF may still turn into a bazooka, but so far it looks more like a water pistol. We continue to doubt that investors will find the insurance and SPIV constructs appealing, and as the G-20 meeting this Thursday and Friday made clear, non-European governments also stand to be convinced that co-investing with the EFSF make sense. But perhaps euro area finance ministers will unveil some more reassuring details on the construct after their meeting this Monday/Tuesday – don’t hold your breath though. Third, the Greek political saga continues and even though the prime minister won the confidence vote in the early hours of Saturday, the second bail-out and debt restructuring package still needs to be approved and likely new elections late this or early next year could spring additional uncertainties. And fourth, but not least, while the ECB cut rates on Thursday, ECB President Draghi made it clear in the press conference that the bond purchase programme remains temporary and limited (see the quote of the week below), suggesting that hopes for large-scale monetary financing remain just that, at least for now.
Another Pandora’s Box opened? However, my main takeaway from last week and my main worry for the weeks and months ahead is that Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy, in response to the idea of a Greek referendum on the bail-out package, raised the possibility of a country leaving the euro – so far a taboo in European political circles. This is the second time in less than four months that European leaders could have opened a Pandora’s Box: on July 21, the decision to involve the private sector in the Greek bailout signaled that euro area government debt is no longer risk-free and thus sparked massive contagion into Spanish and Italian debt markets. This past week, by raising the possibility that a country might (be forced to) leave the euro, core European governments may have set in motion a sequence of events which could potentially lead to runs on sovereigns and banks in peripheral countries that make everything we have seen so far in this crisis look benign. But maybe I’m too pessimistic after another long week.
And what is even more disturbing is that Germany itself is now demanding a referendum. According to Welt, 71% of Germans want a referendum, and want to to vote directly on important decisions for Europe and the Euro. Only 27% oppose the motion. And the same poll has found that 63% of Germans think Greece should be kicked out of the Euro, with just 32% believing the country can still be saved.
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In your own words please define the following; 'devout', 'believer' and 'religion'.
Oh, and while you're at it, define 'god'.
Smith and others be careful with what you say about God and those who believe in a Triune God, please reflect as these days unfold that the "Great I am" is hoping you reach out to him thru his son Jesus Christ in these days.
Romans 10:9 if you confess with your mouth the Lord Jesus and believe in your heart that God has raised Him from the dead, you will be saved.
Matthew 11:25
At that time Jesus answered and said, "I thank You Father, Lord of heaven and earth, that You have hidden these things from the wise and prudent and have revealed them to babes".
Galatians 6:7
"Do not be deceived, God is not mocked: for whatever a man sows, that he will also reap."
At the risk of opening anorher can of worms I suppose your sky daddy sends bhuddists to hell and you think that is a good thing?
I have anguish for anyone who goes to hell. No man is just in the sight of God, for without accepting his Son Jesus Christ there is no redemption of our sinful nature. Anyone who dies without Christ will surely perish; Bhuddists as well.
It is written:
1 John 2:22-23King James Version (KJV)
22Who is a liar but he that denieth that Jesus is the Christ? He is antichrist, that denieth the Father and the Son.
23Whosoever denieth the Son, the same hath not the Father: he that acknowledgeth the Son hath the Father also.
OMG Will you religious zealots never see how ludicrous it is to pull this and that select script out of the puzzle-tome bible? That grand book will say anything you want it to say silly. Yet you pick away carefully choosing whatever verses will support whatever tirade you are on at any given moment. If there is a god he/she has one F-ing hell of a sense of humor and must get a grand laugh out of the pious spineless cloying behavior of the religious masses. Strike me dowwwnnnnnnnnnnnn!
I love Buddha more than the bible (corrupt, altered piece of mass-control propaganda bullshit) yet I acknowledge that Jesus is Christ. I am not christian and I spit on the Church yet love Jesus's teachings. I don't fall for this original sin bullshit (who the fuck do you think you are to tell me I'm not just in the face of god) yet I believe that dwelling in Christ is our salvation.
By the way, Christ Consciousness - living with Jesus in your heart - exists as a concept in buddhism and hinduism, being called the Buddha nature in all things and the Krishna consciousness.
Please tell, how does your radically polarized mind deal with such a moderate position?
Smith and others be careful with what you say about God and those who believe in a Triune God ...
You and your fellow dumbass "christians" have more to worry about than many others since you and your fellow dumbass "christians" insist on speaking lies and heresies against the very diety you profess to "love" and "worship".
Satan is the father of lies, not Christ or followers of Christ. Jesus Christ was blameless and without sin. And yes I do worship and Love my precious Saviour and I will confess him before men. And you Know what Mr. Cranky, He loves you too.
John 8:44
King James Version (KJV)
44Ye are of your father the devil, and the lusts of your father ye will do. He was a murderer from the beginning, and abode not in the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he speaketh a lie, he speaketh of his own: for he is a liar, and the father of it.
Satan is the father of lies ...
Then Satan is YOUR father
... just as Christ said ...as you quoted ...it applies to you.
But no worries, carry on. At the appropriate time Christ will reject you to your miserable faces, you'll all be destroyed, not "sent to hell for all eternity", just flat out wiped out, and the rest of us won't have to put up with your nonsense anymore.
Satan has no power over me as I am washed in the Blood of the Lamb and I am a servant of the most high God.
I was only responding to the statments that have been made on this site which is off topic. I have not done anything to warrant your attack and name calling, and I wish you no harm.
As to the suffering and persecution here on earth which will arrive soon in our own US of A, I pray I can be as Strong as Stephen (first Christian martyr) when that time comes. For it is written:
Matthew 5:11-12King James Version (KJV)
11Blessed are ye, when men shall revile you, and persecute you, and shall say all manner of evil against you falsely, for my sake.
12Rejoice, and be exceeding glad: for great is your reward in heaven: for so persecuted they the prophets which were before youmany will be offended in the end of this age, that is precisely where we are now. Peace be unto you...
Satan has no power over me as I am washed in the Blood of the Lamb and I am a servant of the most high God.
You (and your "christian" cohorts) have been deceived by the master deceiver, and you're in for a huge catastropic letdown when your deception is revealed ...of course it will be too late to do anything about it.
Harsh judgmentalism about true Christianity from a man whose profile pic is a woman's camel toe. Now I've seen everything! :)
Does believing in IQ ratings already makes you godless and
therefore out of the race and ratings even for average folks
on the ground ?
Yes, many of us do. What about you sub 90's?
Thanks for the thread-jack you fucking asshole! Might as well delete this whole fucking post by Tyler since no one is even discussing the content but arguing over religion. Douche bag.
People will discuss whatever they want, if you're not happy why don't you create a new comment thread or just move on to the next post?
achmachat
I get your drift, but GOD never rests.
He rested at the end of creation on the 7th day,because he was finished with creation of the earth.(HE commanded people to rest on the Sabbath,HIS people), no longer in effect under the new covenant.(for Christians.)
He has no need to rest.HE never tires.After all, HE is the I AM.
Some guy keeps writing "In God We Trust" on my dollar bills........
If by Pandora's box they mean giant unwiped asshole, then yes.
Let's see how a German referendum works out... if they have one at all.
Even if 200% of the German population want a referendum, what does it matter? There will be none.
Irrelevant for now.
Nice big picture of G-Pap smilin' on Bloomberg front page you can tell he's thinking about anything except the lube.
Greek people! Cover those asses I beg of you!
I like running, it helps me stay in shape :)
Great: power to the (donor) people! Break up of the Euro is just a matter of months now.
A breakup will be extremely complicated and difficult. The politicians have no idea how to implement it. Any breakup requires capital controls that politicians will be unable to implement.
If you can find a nice way to break up the euro, there are 225,000 British pounds being offered up for your solution- the second largest prize in economics, behind only the prize that Tom Sargent just won.
I'll give my solution for free. This is what I posted at FT Alphaville Long Room
Eurozone break up - a strategy that can be announced in advance
Posted by FinHits on Nov 5 15:51.
Eurozone coordinated break up is the answer to the current misery. Can we find a way to break Euro in a coordinated fashion, and announce it in advance, without creating bank runs? I have dreamt up a possible way below:
1. Big Bang: Break up date set in advance
Let's agree that 1.7.2012 is the date when national currencies will come back and nations will only issue their own currency. All Euro printing by ECB will stop on that day, and ECB will transfer their repo and other bank liquidity programs to national central banks, based on the home country of the banks.
2. Euro to become like SDR
Euro will become ECB Capital Key weighted basket currency, like IMF's Special Drawing Rights, and Euros will be valid currency for a several year transitional period. DEM will have a weighting of 27.1% and ITL 17.9%, for example. Possibly Euro will continue indefinitely as some sort of convenient trading currency.
3. Announcement will not cause bank runs to change deposit countries, collapse debt or country-specific Euro cash values
The Euro basket (very much like ECU used to be, by the way) will maintain all asset and liability values pretty much as current Euro. After 1.7.2012 the national currencies start at 1:1 to Euro, and then will diverge, unless some fool wants to peg their currency. This will change Euro basket value, but since some currencies appreciate (DEM) and some depreciate (ITL) the value might move much less than feared.
If let's say Italy wants to aggressively print ITL, they will devalue their new currency and will also have inflation. They would still have to pay off their old Euro debts at high basket value. They could also choose to default or restructure part of that debt, but at their own risk, without dragging ECB or other Eurozone countries to the misery. It would be also easier for IMF to bail them out, since the artificial and Maastricht-breaking Eurozone joint debt assumption would be completely gone.
4. Optimal national Central Bank policy after Big Bang
- Freely floating / or use Swiss National Bank-type ceilings on appreciation, never on devaluation
- Low interest rates if the domestic (wage) inflation remains stays low
- Fairly independent national central banks, but could do QE with domestic troubled debts of fairly high quality (Government bonds, covered bonds) under extraordinary circumstances
What do you think? Could this work?
The Eurozone coordinated break up is the answer to the current misery, and less painful than ECB QE or the current Northern European taxpayer funded bailout attempts.
I think your solution is elegant and simple but like everything else its outcome woud be a big gamble. Anything has to be better than creating more new debt.
When the time comes the EU will fall apart on its own, just like any ponzi scheme does, nobody has to lift a finger.
The only effort required is trying to keep the ponzi scheme going.
capital controls????
but.....it's gone.
Let's hope so!
The pols love democracy when they can trade handouts for votes but hate it when it jeopardizes their control. Europe is facing a Robespierre moment.
The fact is that whoever provides additional financing other than China, itself becomes a victim by creating problems for itself down the road strewen already with too many kicked and crushed cans.
And why would China finance anything now, for when either Euroland stops being Disneyesque la-la-land on its own and there would be no need for China which could continue on its merry ways, or becomes a place where real countries can be "bought" on the cheap under the label "Chinese Investments" or ownership?
Surely, the world is not so naive as not to follow the REAL money!
Soverigns? Did they not used to be made of gold?
I am sure the inevitable outcome here is the Greeks demand a 100% "haircut" and continue to stay in the Eurozone, the EU lacks the necessary tools to kick anyone out of the euro
Everybody knows how this is going to end. Pretending otherwise is a fools errand. In the meantime, the central bankers and the politicians they have paid for will keep talking as if magical unicorns will soon appear and start shitting gold. It ain't going to happen. It took Weimar Germany something like 3 years to destroy their currency. Now that we have the internet, it might take a bit longer.
"Everybody knows how this is going to end."
Damn, I got left out of the loop again. I hate it when that happens.
Yeah, I hear you.
So does that mean the "Europeans" have to start working now?
Europe actually has a very healthy real economy, get your facts straight.
Europe is 78% self-sufficient. They don't need anyone. When the world falls aprt, Europe will be fine.
Oh, and they are prepared, they saw this coming 3 years ago.
They have immigrants to do that for them.
they opened pandora's box and it was empty
HO NOO, now i am really scared! wait, you mean the guys that were wrong about everything in the last years telling its time to sell???
Ok, year end rally, buy, buy buy! any day i take the opposite side of MS view
Columnist Andreas Cervenka at Svenska Dagbladet (Swedish daily) used the same analogy today, but he very cleverly renamed it Papandreou's Box.
"And what is even more disturbing is that Germany itself is now demanding a referendum.According to Welt, 71% of Germans want a referendum, and want to to vote directly on important decisions for Europe and the Euro. Only 27% oppose the motion."
this is actually the most important point of all. up til now, the focus has been on how market action is holding the eec to ransom, and forcing the economic hand by brute force to some semblance of sanity.
but increasingly it's starting to look like the people will rise up to hold the politicians to ransom.
and that, my friends, is the biggest market risk of all...
They wouldn't allow the German public a vote on joining the Euro why the hell would they allow them have a vote to leave it?
+1
You are smart.
Tyler,
fuhgetabout a german referendum on either a greek bailout or having a say in important decisions. There won't be any. German law does not allow any, and the german population is way, way, WAY too lethargic to really demand any. Even if it were possible.
Always keep in mind: the part of the population that has time to read what is going on in politics and finance is mostly out of work and could not care less. And the other part of the population is working really really hard and coming home from work, putting their kids to bed and trying to get at least a bit of life. They do not care about Greece either as long as there is a monthly paycheck.
Simple as that. Keep the hamster wheel turning and the plebs fed and entertained.
I am saying this as a native german.
thanks for all your work,
kind regards from Germany,
HJ
Sad, but 100% true!
maybe the referendum has to do with friday being shnitzel night instead of thursday!
German law does not allow any, and the german population is way, way, WAY too lethargic to really demand any. Even if it were possible.
Regrettably, you are absolutely right. They get angry after a nominal 30 per cent haircut on their paychecks only.
Echoing Krugman's very recent warning about a 'gigantic bank run.' Increasingly TPTB are sounding alarmed....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXthKa_iEVk
http://bankrunwatch.blogspot.com/
The last thing left in the box is hope.
Is all this proverbial 'kicking the can down the road' just to prolong things a few weeks or months more in the mere hope of rescue, or is it because the top levels of the central banks & governments know there is a rescue plan in place that will take a few more weeks or months to implement? Could war be the rescue plan? There are so many right-on-the-edge options to choose from if war is the preferred international financial rescue plan.
My money is on the Israelis attacking Iran, but one or two disappearing Pakistani nukes could do it too, or a couple of thousand Hisbollah missiles suddenly flying toward Tel Aviv, or - take your pick. If Israel goes after Iran, what are the odds that Iran will try to take out a major US ship in the Gulf? Nasty.
So, war is definitely looking good to go, if that's the plan. I kinda hope not but these guys running the show don't look too imaginative and it is about the only act that has worked for their kind before, and they know it.
Sometime they'll give a war and nobody will come.
Carl Sandburg
The greece bullshit is enough to have a green monday.
Bullish..., yes of course.
Note to every investor, everywhere; All the money we stole is being pumped back into the collapsing vein that is our world economy now. We got the syringe and the juice flowing. We apologize for not being able to hide MF's insolvency. (or others that have yet only been named). Because you are the privileged, you tell us what you were going to be betting on and we will pay out for the little inconvience this caused as you liquidate your holdings in all modern religions as we do. Please notice that law enforcement forgot to get involved with the theft so we were able to do some damage control for you. We are trying to hide all the others from scrutiny now as you can imagine and are preparing to lock things down. Golden Showers to you!
We don't want you to worry, we have lots of veins left. We've only been doing the needle for 40 years now.
Deleveraging is deflationary.
And it cannot be stopped, only mitigated by QE which will cause inflation in those goods with inelastic demand curves and deflation in discretionary items, while most remain employed.
You all better hope for qe and stagflation. It is better than straight up deflation.
Why hope for just one? We will most likely get both. That is why I hold my nose and hang on to some FRN$, because cash is king in a deflationary environment. Call it a hedge that may allow me to buy more gold and silver at a discount.
I agree we will swing back and forth a bit.
I think these alternating inflation deflation scares can be traded at the extremes, but this deflationary psychology has gone on longer for this cycle than I expected. If the euro crises is put behind us temporarily then it will be time to jump into risk assets again. I thought the time was a month ago but I seem to be wrong and am back in cash again.
If I'm correct risk returned 15% over the last 30 days.
@ jekyll island,
Yes to holding some FRN$. Diversification. Who knows what is going to happen?
Gold > FRN$ > electrons at the bank
BOE is already pumping it out. Stagflation is already dialed in. Only when the conservatives are replaced by Labour though will it really hit it's stride in all it's 15% glory.
Europe will not be outdone by the tiny UK.
all sounds bullish to me....
Wait, and btf black hole in a few months.
Ya think? Got my low bids in.
All this talk of leaving the Euro...with zero talk of exactly how that works.
How do all the intercountry and intracountry contracts that are all denominated in Euro's get converted to a "new" currency. Fact...they won't. If the Athen's Caterpillar Tractor dealer owes money in US Dollars or Euros, those contracts will not be converted. If the Athen's Caterpillar Tractor dealer now sells his equipment is a brand new local currency, how will he convert that to Dollars/Euro's at an equitable rate necessary to satisfy his Euro/Dollar contracts?
He won't.
All businesses in Greece with international contracts will be in deep trouble. But it doesn't stop there. How will the Greek people buy gasoline? In what currency? How will they pay for their electricity? In what currency?
Anyone who thinks "leaving the Euro" is a simple monetary/currency decision with marginal impact...or even a benefit to the departing country is misguided. Defaulting on debt IS what Greece should have done years ago. Leaving the Euro...completely different game.
It is possible to leave the EU.
Start your new currency and let the FX set the value.
I'd bet on the side of any country that did that vs staying in the EU!
PigMen firms once villified for frontrunning and disinformation are now suddenly considered "experts" on this topic?
That depends on what your definition of "expert" is.
I prefer, "seasoned veteran".
Only when they say what the crowd wants to hear!
"PigMen firms"
Wins you my + 1
Same old Euro trashing going on here. Yeah yeah, it is all going to collapse on Monday! Like 100 times before...not!
Don't you ever get tired of that crap?
2001..."Ha ha. That lousy euro, never going to reach parity."
2004..."It is not the strength of euro, it is the temporarily weakness of USA!"
2008..."it is now going to collapse below parity! Euro is done!"
2010..."any minute now"
2011..."any second now!"
2012..."any nanosecond now?"
So you have confidence the Euro will not lose any members in the next five years?
Only strong ones could pull that trick off but with awfully high expenses. It would mean total chaos for months at least when the financial transaction systems are reprogrammed (retail, banking, those are huge systems) and contracts are rewritten and fought over. Judicial system would be overflooded with lawsuits.
Even designing notes would require months in advance, old notes from 1990's are already too easy for counterfeiters.
Basically it would be like USA switching to left lane traffic and miles to km. Huge operation and as an added problem, possibly uncooperative neighboring countries.
Painful? True! However so is giving birth. It's time for grandpa EU to ride into the sunset and be replaced with independent sovereign currencies.
Grandpa EU? The EU is still a child that was born with an undetected illness and despite some early years of apparent health, the illness has been identified and the child is pronounced terminal.
Don't mean to sound insensitive but I'm OK with the diagnosis then.
As much as its true, everyone seem to be blind to the fact that EUR was a better currency to own when compared to USD and GBP. GBP is completely finished currency while USD still have reserve power... but the main difference between these two and EUR is that until now, the ECB avoided using the printing presses like in UK or US. I dont know what will happen tomorrow, but everyone agree that eur bashers are deeply in the red so its understandable why they have to express their dissatisfaction with Armageddon prophecies. EUR is here to stay.... and even when and if greece is out from the eur, somehow i think the greek people rather keep their EUR than change to a new wonderful DRACHMA....
Itis disturbing to compare these devlopments to America's Civil War. It is beyond me how Lincoln was able to keep himself and the Union comitted to unification during such a bloody war. It would ahve been so easy to just say "What the hell, let 'em go, we don't want them anyway!" Yet, Lincoln remained focused on reuniting the union regardless of the cost. It was his titanic leadership that prevailed and kept the USA in one peice. We know in reptrospect that was the right decision, but it must have been so difficult to stay the course.
Fast forward to the EU, and cracks are already appearing. It hasn't even gotten difficult and they're bailing. When leaders mention the possibility of secession to solve problems, it will happen. Unfiying Europe seemed like a good idea in 1951, after all wrold war two was something nobody wanted to repeat. But their intrinsic differences preveted them from building a real monetary union, only a kind of toy one. Once the south converted to Euros they inherited Germany's credit rating, and promptly starting borrowing unsustainable amounts of money. The euro began to represent a huge spectrum of value: an Italian Euro was over valued whereas a German one was under valued, yet they were all theoretically identical.
There needs to be a Eurobond, that ailing countires can convert their debt to. But the would give authority to a abnkrupt country to incur debt on behalf of all the others without their permission. In other words, a complete loss of soverignty. In the current climate nobody will even consider surrendering their soverignty, nor should they.
The only way Greece will ever get out of this still resembling a modern country, is if it leaves the Euro, and redenominates all its debts, public and private, into new drachma. That in itself is a deefault, so devaluation of the new drachma is just more of the same. This would impose austerity on the Greeks, but it would be natural, home-grown austerity Greeks have imposed on themselves. A kind of austerity by free-market principles if you will. It would not be an externally imposed austerity designed to save German and French banks. Austerity is not the issue, its the fact that it is being imposed for the benefit of foreign banks, much like occupation after loosing a war.
If we're going to loose a war, shouldn't we fight one first? I love Europe, but their instincts toward eachother is so intrinsically hostile and predatory, the idea of them remaining untied is becoming pretty slim.
Fuck off, Mr. 25-wars-since-WWII-American besserwisser.
BTW, where the hell your ancestors came from? Moon?
First you motherf*ckers blame us Europeans being such sissies when we do not support your stupid wars but THEN you guys say something like above, "instincts toward each other is so intrinsically hostile and predatory, the idea of them remaining untied is becoming pretty slim."
So which one is it? We are latte drinking sissies or blood thirsty, warmongering huns? Or latte thirsty, warmongering sissies? And our women are all easy and do not shave?
Yes.
You are all of those.
This is partly the reason a monetary union wont work.
By saying that it will hold together you are saying that germany is permanently willing to subsidize the south, including their lower rwtirement ages.
Or you are assuming that Italy and greece will reform their spendthrift ways, their economies, and social welfare state along german lines so that the german subsidy of the south and their spendthrift ways is temporary.
Both of those beliefs sound completely ridiculous.
Where the hell this idea comes from that Eurozone must be all like stereotypical Germany? USA is even more extreme than Eurozone, cultural, political, socioeconomical factors all over the map.
Don't even start with that "income transfers between States"...poor Americans and poor cities are really left behind much worse than in any of the Eurozone countries. Social mobility is a joke in the US today.
Many individual US states have much better reasons to leave USA! They got real reasons to break apart like overburdening federal budget and costly and useless foreign wars.
Lincoln. Worst fucking president ever. Thanks for getting the statism ball rolling here on the North American continent, old dopey Abe. Leadership? Leadership would have signing the emancipation proclamation day one of his presidency, not three years in to a bloody war in order to get more troops for the 'union'.
Lincoln was confronted with the French on the Canadian border and the Spanish on the Mexican border.
Both of them were eager to divide our young nation among themselves.
Europe is not in that situation.
The French?
Did the American Civil War happen in the 1750's or the 1860's?
You say:
Yet, Lincoln remained focused on reuniting the union regardless of the cost. It was his titanic leadership that prevailed and kept the USA in one peice. We know in reptrospect that was the right decision, but it must have been so difficult to stay the course.
Wrong. Lincoln definitively destroyed the constitutional republic founded in 1787 (which was already arguably inferior in important respects to the Articles of Confederation). In its wake he left over half a million dead, a subjugated South, the government ever after imperial rather than republican. I won't get into the hypocrisies and insanities of the racial politics unleashed ever since.
Linclon's "leadership" was dictatorial. Check out his suspension of habeas corpus, his forcing Maryland to not secede, his jailing of dissident publishers, closing of oppositional newspapers, exiling of Vallandigham, etc, etc. Lots of his cronies made lots of money. That's how he did it. He was a railroad lawyer first and foremost, with a towering ego and deadly ambition.
Read his 1837 address to the Young Men's Lyceum to see his own rather prescient perspectives on his future career.
Go back to the Mark already, Germans, jeesh.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/03/idINIndia-60307320111103
Can I haz one tooo.
the 'eu' has run its course,... bandages are all but left in the ad`hoc triage [ecb/troika] 'er-center-of-gravity', where the grim reaper now shows but a distant shadow of a once, gilded, 'skeleton's silhouette',...
Talking from empty condoworld...Seen any neighbors lately? Within two mile radius?
just the sun drenched ocean, where the fishes jump into my net begging me to fry them - and the clams,... they don't care
Seventeen green bottles, sitting on the wall
and if one green bottle, should "accidently" fall...
Looking at it more seriously, back in the 1930s there was an attempt in London to get all the nations together to agree a fnancial fix to get the world economy out of the hole. Long conference, many jestures, no agreement, total failure.
We are approaching this point - where the reality of governments being too weak to agree a collective way out starts to hit home and the idea the "its every nation for him(her) self" begins. Worst of all, first one to break ranks is the least loser.
The arrogance of leaders in 2008 about we saved the world and did not make the same mistakes of the 1930s is starting to look as hollow as it actually is - to think that smart people in the 1930s did not get all this and made the wrong choice - really ? They could not avoid the end game - coming soon to a national economy near you...
Its sunday afternoon. I can tell Euro is rallying vs $ without looking at a quote page (cuz ZH has no news flash on it opening lower.....;-)
as soon as people realize the defaulting countries will be the winners, this will get ugly for the banks in Europe
boo hoo
the euro is dead. all these 'deals' and talks being drawn out and ending up with either no agreement, or an agreement for an 'approach' to tackle the 'problem' but no commitment to it in terms of details - it now points to something other than cluelessness and buying time. it seems obvious that the euro countries know the whole thing is about to collapse and so they're all holding back their funds to save themselves rather than the 'eurozone' as an entity. suddenly it all seems that simple.
i'm expecting that bag of pesetas i never bothered changing to become useful again fairly soon.
referendum is a dirty word? saved? what does it mean? slaves be saved/ sinners be saved. sheep be fleeced. please. resources born on make thee king and god over many, funny shit
Europe will continue to lead headline risk, but after another highly anticipated weekend of headline risk, not much happened. We are likely to see a bit more "risk off" price action to open the trading week. Then we may see price action take on more risk as the week advances. Here is a look at the DX, EURUSD, GC, SI, and the SPX. http://bit.ly/tvybIw
11-7-11
11-9-11
11-11-11
I'm getting a bad feeling about this week!
You'll feel better if you insert a 20 in front of the last 11.
Never mind all the arguments over religion. A more important question is which is the best way to represent dates?
YYYYMMDD bitches! Accept no inferior substitutes. Unambiguous, and also filenames with that prefix naturally sort in order.
Write that as 20111111. Now it looks even more bad-feeling-ish.
Numerology is crap. EXCEPT... that the satanist Elites that run this world happen to be numerology freaks, and so they choose numerologically significant dates for their major world-steering false-flag events, as a kind of boasting signature by which others of their kind can recognize their actions.
Favorite signature number of the Elites: 11.
For anyone reading the headlines and looking to short:
18 months ago, this was happening:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/early-march-lows-taken-out-carry-inverts
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rip-euro-1999-2010
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/john-taylor-dead-man-walkingthe-euro-finished
Bye-bye Euro bye-bye!
Hello bank runs, sovereign collapse, Drachmas and Deutschmarks!
That's not Pandora's Box.
More like...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9HloS9Ukto
No doubt about that. Pandora's Box was opened and the debt monster got loose. Now, the central banks have to find a whipping boy to take the punishment for them.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
It seems to me that trolls are posting questions to get people off topic and many of you are falling for it... Stop feeding the trolls by responding to them. It dilutes the real information and discussion.
TIA,
JFC
I opened Pandora's Box. Inside there was only a naked emperor squirting a water pistol.
Sadly, no bazooka. I was hoping for a bazooka.
Any opinions on this statement. Does the HSNSI have merit in your view?
The HSNSI is now 51 percentage points higher than where it stood a month ago. To put that in context, consider that over the first month of the last six bull markets, the HSNSI never grew by that much. In fact, the average increase in this sentiment index over each of those six bull markets’ first month was just 19.9 percentage points.
The half lives of all these "solutions" or "emergencies" are getting shorter and shorter, I think we can all agree on that. Everybody knows its only a matter of time, its just that nobody knows when. The most intriguing thing i think is the financial cartel's ability to play ball and all the can kicking. The way I see it we have 2 options : 1.) We could stop can kicking and have a major depression which would lead to the debasing of the US dollar to oblivion or 2.) We could debase the US dollar to oblivion which will lead to a much bigger depression, which is the current option and most popular with the powers that be. There is absolutely NO way we are getting out of this without some real hard times for decades to come for most people of the world. We had a good run, it was a crazy experiment that a lot of us benefited from. Anyone in your 60's to 90's, pat yourself on your back you grew up in the best time as a human on this planet. The rest of us not so much, very very very hard times are coming.
Print out real knowledge while you still can bitchez!
I can't believe this is an underground media source when a whole slew of
of readers are engaged in a philosophical discussion on God/gods.
God helps those who help themselves. So, youz all shut up and read.
GPap is looking ever more like the master of Euro politics if he gave some Germans the idea
to ask their compatriots if they also want a referendum. That's the pandora' box that will not shut.
Adios Euro. Bonfire of the Ponzis