Morgan Stanley's Exposure To French Banks Is 60% Greater Than Its Market Cap... And More Than Half Its Book Value

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/22/2011 11:07 -0400

With French banks now a daily highlight in the market's search for the next source of contagion, and big, multi-syllable words such as conservatorship and nationalization being thrown about with increasingly reckless abandon, perhaps it is time to consider the downstream effects of a French bank blow up. And we are not talking French sovereign troubles, which are about to get far worse with the country's CDS once again at record highs means the country's AAA rating is as good as gone. No: banks, as in those entities that are completely locked out from the dollar funding market, and which will be toppled following a few major redemption requests in native USD currency. Which in turn brings us to...Morgan Stanley, the little bank that everyone continues to ignore for assumptions of a pristine balance sheet and no mortgage exposure. Well, hopefully we can debunk one of these assumptions by presenting the bank's Cross-Border Outstandings, which "include cash, receivables, securities purchased under agreements to resell, securities borrowed and cash trading instruments but exclude derivative instruments and commitments. Securities purchased under agreements to resell and Securities borrowed are presented based on the domicile of the counterparty, without reduction for related securities collateral held." We'll leave it up to readers to find the relevant number.

The one thing we will highlight is that $39 billion is about 60% more than the bank's market cap and a whopping 65% (as in more than half) of its entire book (less non-controlling interests) equity value.

So if you are looking for a French bank implosion derivative play, look no more.

And naturally, it goes without saying, that adding across MS' entire European bank exposure is 3 times its market cap, and well over its entire book equity value.

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Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:08 | 1697023 King_of_simpletons

LOL !

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:12 | 1697055 MillionDollarBonus_

Haha I know. That teaches them for being unpatriotic and not buying AMERICAN banks.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:33 | 1697158 He_Who Carried ...

How come these balance cheats are all so sound and solid?

They're all from Harvard, right? Bright guys, really! Congrats!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:42 | 1697226 falak pema

You are not taught how to count at Harvard. You are taught to make Power point presentations using buzz words you don't really understand which put your audience in comfy mode and then to sell prepackaged ideas, that are compiled by others from techy backgrounds, to HF managers who are from the same alma mater or similar fraternaties. That's called business acumen. Its supposed to work in an economy where the sun never sets. Not in an economy which is in gridlock. In gridlock there is only one way out; ask RM, its called sleight of hand book keeping.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:46 | 1697253 spiral_eyes

Harvard bullshit has brought us another market crash. What will stop the Harvard bullshitters? According to them, the only answer is more harvard bullshit.

The central-bank-liquidity-dependent markets are heading toward turmoil without further printing, so I have no doubt Bernanke will respond to global freefall with a co-ordinated global interest-free pumping operation, causing assets to levitate, and gold to spike over $2,000. Any promises made to the Chinese central bank to stabilise the value of the dollar would go out of the window, as Bernanke’s true money-printing, aggregate-demand-boosting impulses come to the fore.

Meanwhile, gold might even turn upward before further printing. The main downward pressure is liquidation, as investors seek to gold cash to stave off losses and margin calls that accompany the downward spiral. But gold’s long-term purchasing-power stability will keep a steady stream of money flowing in. There is upward inflationary pressure (driven by food and fuel fundamentals) even without further money printing. Funds and investors will still be keen to safeguard their purchasing power.

http://azizonomics.com/2011/09/22/bernanke-didnt-pump-equities-get-dumped/

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:51 | 1697300 Harlequin001

Harvard? Do me a favour.

I went to a Grammar school where we spent our time doing maths and anagrams.

Bet you didn't know that the phrase "I'm a Keynesian economist' is simply an anagram of 'thieving twats'?

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:32 | 1697525 iDealMeat

Bet you didn't know that the phrase "I'm a Keynesian economist' is simply an anagram of 'thieving twats'?

I didn't.. Because it doesn't.. FAIL.. at least add the /sarc..

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:38 | 1697561 redpill

Keynesian does anagram to Insane Key, which is oddly appropriate.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:58 | 1697648 Oh regional Indian

And appropriately enough, Troy Davis anagrams to:

Sad Ivy Rot

hmmmm....

ORI

Troy Davis and the 33rd

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 09:18 | 1700705 Fish Gone Bad

If you spell Troy Davis sideways it makes: Fuck Morgan Stanly.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 13:06 | 1697695 Harlequin001

If you need to be told when a statement like that needs a sarc annotation then you really are fuckin stupid.

or should I put an /sarc, before it, just so you understand it...

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 14:31 | 1698074 philipdybel

And make sure you preface each of The Bernank's statements with "/spin", and Obozo's with "/tool".

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:26 | 1697449 pelican

Withdrawn for being stupid.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 13:34 | 1697838 Going Loco

Great comment pelican. Would that there were more comments like yours on ZH.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 13:09 | 1697708 jdelano

+1. Now we're talking, Falek. Solid insight delivered in succinct, articulate, and digestible prose. It's like Picasso--before he went all experimental he had to prove he'd mastered the fundamentals.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:05 | 1698265 falak pema

lol, you lose your monocle like a prussian general in the great debacle. Welcome abroad...the ship of fools...who think they know how to reason and rationalise "rite from rong"....but what the heck, we are but humans, ours is not to wonder why but to do or die, in blogospheric reality. Lay on Macduff..and damned be he...

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 14:22 | 1698028 philipdybel

I think I saw one of those presentations back at Dunder Mifflin. Michael Scott forcefully pointed at the audience and shouted, "Power POINT! Power POINT!" Finally someone told him, "That's not how you do Power point."

Guess he never went to Harvard Business...

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 22:52 | 1699780 Dingleberry

Harvard, like ALL "prestigious" schools, only major in one thing: networking with present and future "elites". Access is EVERYTHING, and the social network that these clowns belong to is what gets them ahead. NOT talent or ability.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 20:10 | 1735216 ceilidh_trail

nailed it

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:37 | 1697178 Surly Bear

Getting cozy with Sarkozy

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:46 | 1697593 SheepDog-One

MillionDollarBonus....there ARE NO 'american' banks theyre all Crown banks.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 13:55 | 1697901 mfoste1

fuck you

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 21:38 | 1699597 combatsnoopy

This is the same France that thinks that Palestine should be a state.

He called for the Palestinians to become "an observer state," similar to the status the Vatican holds at the U.N.

http://www.salon.com/news/global_post/?story=%2Fnews%2Ffeature%2F2011%2F09%2F22%2Ffrance_america_palestine

When they said "Vatican", they meant THIS Vatican...
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,951806,00.html
http://www.newser.com/story/101150/vatican-bank-probed-for-money-laundering.html

Europe is so much fun.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:35 | 1697170 BrocilyBeef

looks like MS has their LOL'r'skates on! PEAK PANIC!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 13:05 | 1697690 jdelano

Why on earth is the MSM so terrified to say the word "recession"? Seriously--it's like the "Voldemort" of financial media. Lately I watch these guys on tv and I can't stop chuckling and snickering as they squirm and blush..."I don't think we'll fall into....into...you know...that which must not be named."

WTF? I love these clowns. When the market is going up it's like they really believe they are brilliant for turning a buck by piling into whatever trumped up piece of crap their buds on the street are hawking. All pomp and smuggery. Then when it goes down they look like little boys who've dropped their ice cream cones. Completely baffled and on the verge of tears. "What's going on?! Why didn't the FED print? Why doesn't Ben like us anymore?! But...but...earnings are....and emerging markets....stocks so cheap...growth...."

I just don't feel bad for them at all anymore. No system should reward stupid, lazy, and arrogant. Glad that that era looks to be ending.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:08 | 1697027 EscapeKey

Pledge it all as collateral with the ECB - problem solved.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:17 | 1697092 falak pema

How about netting it all out in a friendly swap?

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:58 | 1697334 Harlequin001

I was thinking of using my car as collateral with the ECB...

I reckon it's got to be good for at least 2 billion euros...

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 13:01 | 1697670 falak pema

unless you have all the mythical cars that every one wants to buy; like JBond's AM-DB5 , Steve Mcq's Mustng and gold plated Rolls R belonging to every sheikh who can't rattle n roll any more.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 13:10 | 1697710 Harlequin001

I was thinking that any old piece of shite might fit in there just nicely. It would certainly fit the tone of all the rest of the crap at the ECB, no sweat...

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:34 | 1697537 CClarity

Gotta believe they have most of it hedged. Their not Stoopid at MS. That would be a huge (and stupid) bet on French banks if they don't have a major hedge. That said, hedges don't work so well in whoosh market conditions.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:44 | 1697590 EscapeKey

Hedged - with whom? And whose hedges are on the books of Societe Generale/BN Paribas/...?

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 13:15 | 1697727 Harlequin001

Why, with Morgan stanley of course...

and should we be surprised to discover that Soc Gen and BNP are also hedged with, well, Soc Gen and BNP?

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:08 | 1697028 shazbotz

kaboooooom!!!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:15 | 1697070 fdisk

Yeah, KAbooom, Silver down 10% and BAC down 4% :)))

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:45 | 1697245 JohnG

Ohhhhhh Noooooooeeeesssss! Silver only up over 100% in two years! Only a double!!!!

(sighs)

You haven't been at this very long have you.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:49 | 1697276 gmrpeabody

If your money is where your mouth is, then we may not be seeing you around here for very long.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:51 | 1697290 Mr Lennon Hendrix

YoY silver up 100% BAC down 60%

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:58 | 1697338 donsluck

Jeez, once again, BTFD!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:36 | 1697552 WonderDawg

So easy to say, but knowing where the bottom of the "D" is is the trick, eh?

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:44 | 1697589 Mr Lennon Hendrix

$33. It's the old bottom. Might as well use it.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:35 | 1698407 WonderDawg

You go ahead. I'll wait a while longer.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:08 | 1697387 d00daa

still picking the cactus thorns out of your rectum?? "big up day today" eh??? "buy stockz bitchez"???? great, great calls. you, iq45 and momofader should get a room.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:48 | 1697609 SheepDog-One

fdisk real nice call on the FOMC yesterday lol

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:53 | 1697305 LongSoupLine

Le Boom!! White flag sales are throught the roof in France...yet again.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:25 | 1697481 prains

White flag sales are through the roof in France...yet again.

they should be hanging from their windows any day now.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:08 | 1697029 Gubbmint Cheese

I just sharted

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:13 | 1697058 boom goes the d...

you must be french......wine and cheese will do that.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:26 | 1697133 scatterbrains

I was gonna wait to cover some shorts until I can see the whites of their eyes or shart stains on their pants.. but I think I'll wait a little longer.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:51 | 1697619 DCFusor

Good move. I closed a bunch yesterday afternoon before the final drop, now I feel like an idiot -- they were green, but cheesh, not like they'd be now.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 20:30 | 1735275 ceilidh_trail

Yup- closed my tza at 56 and watched it go to 62 < 4 hours later. Ouch...

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:09 | 1697031 GeneMarchbanks

Now finally some good news!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:09 | 1697033 d00daa

GO LONG IQ45!! KEEP BUYING THOSE DIPS CUNT! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:23 | 1697120 falak pema

only very intelligent people can go long and stay long....how long is long...sounds like a pornucopial dream.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:34 | 1697168 gojam

"pornucopial"

oo la la!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:10 | 1697035 hedgeless_horseman

S&P500 at 1134...upside down spells hEll.

That was scary in elementary school...and again today?

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:17 | 1697091 Tyler Durden

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:23 | 1697119 GeneMarchbanks

Admit it. You bitchez just don't care like you used to.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:53 | 1697307 Rose_Colored_Glasses

1169 X 3 upside down is "LOSE"

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:10 | 1697036 achmachat

if this continues, we'll have super massive black friday (SMBF) tomorrow!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:28 | 1697145 Smiddywesson

I'd bet one of my eagles friday is a super up day and monday is black monday.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:54 | 1697310 gmrpeabody

That's the way I'm playing it..., but I not pushing a lot of chips out there.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:54 | 1697631 DCFusor

You guys really think there's enough dumb "bargain hunters" with money left to make it bounce, really? It HAS been the pattern, but they might have all been wiped out, or just gone away for awhile. I'll just watch and wait myself. The middle of a move can be good enough -- and is usually better than getting killed by a gap if you call it wrong.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:10 | 1697038 youngman

But we were all told it was "only" 80 billion.......its in print.....all the USA banks exposure.....I know...I know....but hey..gold and silver down....they must be dumping to buy banks stocks....such a bargin right now

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:31 | 1697152 Smiddywesson

These kinds of scratch your head moments are good training for when physical and paper decouple.

Get ready for it, you know you love it, sitting on a pile of physical and watching jackasses CNBC crow that you are wiped out, until, everyone realizes you aren't.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 12:34 | 1697532 prains

youngman

sorry dude, everytime i see your avatar pic it's a what the fork moment. don't mean to dwell, we've gone over this before but man

that pic is not even photoshop'd. it's like halloween eveyday for whoever that dude is. hat's off..........love it. one of the best

avatars going.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 11:10 | 1697041 RemiG2010