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"The Mourning After" - Argentina Is On The Greek Side, But Why Is The IMF Holding It Hostage?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The latest gambit used by the Eurocrats is that should Greece dare to not follow their sage advice, and leave the EMU, it will burn in hell for perpetuity, where famine and pestilence will join in making Greeks regret they ever dared to not listen to their Keynesian overlords. The only problem is that despite what econo-pundits everywhere claim, the Argentina case study (as well as the Iceland and the Southeast Asian) is a rather optimistic one of what Greece can expect to occur after it finally "just says no" to the biggest vanity experiment in European history. And as JPM's Michael Cembalest shows without any doubt, "there is a morning after." The far bigger problem is that there will be a "mourning after" for all those who are threatening Greece will hell and damnation right about now. Which brings us to a very critical question: why is the IMF not doing what it should be doing, and promising to assist the Greek decision, even if it means exiting the Euro. As JPM's Cembalest says "If the IMF did what it is supposed to do and lend into a devaluation/ structural adjustment (instead of financing a German and French bank rescue), Greece just might have a shot. Within the Euro, they don’t." Which begs the question: just how many pieces of silver did it take for the IMF to join the bandwagon of sell out and rehypothecate its soul, and charter, to the highest bidder?

 

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Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:14 | 2447887 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Everyone says the Drach will plunge, but why should it if the debt is expunged, or Greece just default on all their obligations? Other than an ongoing deficit, they will have nothing to pay out.

Strikes me that it's the euro that would crater...

'just how many pieces of silver did it take for the IMF to join the bandwagon of sell out and rehypothecate its soul, and charter, to the highest bidder?' - probably just the one I think, they've got nothing else of any value...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:17 | 2447908 Manthong
Manthong's picture

“Why is the IMF holding it hostage?

Because the actual job of the IMF to promote FRN debt servitude.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:42 | 2448160 gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

Exactly. Once one realizes what the real agenda is of the IMF (do these authors even read The Economic Hitman?), federal reserve, BOE, BIS, NATO, etc., one immediately understands what all these "stupid" politicians are trying to do. Not going to work as planned but you can see their twisted logic in creating this chaos.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 15:44 | 2448595 hoos bin pharteen
hoos bin pharteen's picture

“Why is the IMF holding it hostage?"

Hmmm.   Repsol nationalization?  Threatening war with the UK over the Falklands?

Ask not why, but why wouldn't they?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 22:36 | 2449589 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Hey kiddo, it's not from Argentina the fleet wondering around Magallanes.

It's not us, the warmongers. We don't even dream of it, we're not the threateners. The conquerors. The imperialists. The thief banksters.  It isn't Latin America the shit of this Word, pal.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 07:11 | 2454260 couvrot
couvrot's picture

All is well here in Buenos Aires! One US$ is now worth 6 pesos! It was 3.30 only 3 years ago.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 14:17 | 2448285 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

The actual job is what some refer to as 'social engineering' which means an entire program of control over all aspects of life and culture of a nation. More importantly it means servitude to the CB-PD-Intelli-Corporate model imposed on by transnationals and relentless firespray of propaganda. The deadliest of the Unholy Trinity.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 14:44 | 2448363 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Ah, no, this is not for the FRN.   Think again.  

The current and the last IMF honchos were franco-French politicos, and the entities being rescued with all of this ECB and IMF can-kicking are France and Germany's very small number of very TBTF private banks and financial/insurance entities..... and consequently also the French and German governments, whose resort would be to nationalize those large banks, ending the treaties that hold "Europe" the political entity "together".

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 15:13 | 2448485 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Nay, you're the one mistaken. As part of Bretton Woods, the IMFs role was exactly as described until it degenerated into something even worse.

The French are appointed for cosmetic purposes. It's an Anglo-American institution through and through.

http://www.amazon.com/Bad-Samaritans-Secret-History-Capitalism/dp/159691...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:17 | 2447912 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is a very good article and point.  Why is the IMF backstabbing one of its members?

Answer: Because Greece will likely have to default on debt it owes the IMF -- and I believe that is an all time first.  Heads at the IMF would have to roll for making an uncreditworthy loan.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:51 | 2448001 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

you mean like making 'any' loan?

or are some actually good ones...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:13 | 2447892 roguetraderinchicago
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I hear the going price is 50!

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:13 | 2447893 roguetraderinchicago
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I hear the going price is 50!

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:15 | 2447896 CrashisOptimistic
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Frankly, right now the only thing that matters in Europe is the latest poll numbers in Greece.  After a surge by New Democracy to take a 3% lead, the very latest says they have lost that lead and there's a tie between Syriza and ND.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:32 | 2449167 kanenas
kanenas's picture

Don't believe the polls. Last time around they were "predicting" ND-Pasok to be leading by a safe margin, adding to 45%. They missed the mark by 13%. (18.8+13.2)
The reasons:
1. Uncharted territory: sampling statistical methods failed to predict the social movement.
2. Not all polls are answered in earnest. People don't feel like saying they are voting a 'leftist' or a nationalist party. Even exit polls failed to predict the ????? ???? rise.
3. Some of these polls are rigged. Yeap. Rigged. They are constructed so as to convince the people that they should 'follow' the majority, herd with the common wisdom etc.

Currently there are conflicting polls, some show ND leading by a 2%, others Syriza leading by an even thiner margin, and then you have a few showing a 4% lead to Syriza.
I would say forget about the ANNOUNCED polls and try to figure the numbers by the change of the tune EU is playing.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:15 | 2447900 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

'Don't Fry for Me Athens'

-From the 2012 hit Musical, Greevita.

 

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:15 | 2447903 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I'm certain JP Morgue (and the rest of the banking universe) will send the new Greek government a pre-approved credit card application after the Greeks default.

They do it all the time with people who have filed for bankruptcy.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:27 | 2447937 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

The Morgue would but IMF "help" looks rather different judged by their record. If they decide Greece never stopped
being third world it will be like having your passport annulled and be thrown into the sea.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:19 | 2447919 navy62802
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OT - TD often refers to whether or not JPM has unwound the losing positions that have been front-page news for the past couple of weeks. Well, per a JPM counterparty (via Bloomberg), JPM is "not out of those positions."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-21/jpmorgan-counterparty-platt-say...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:19 | 2447921 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Don't you mean "How many naked short shares of nyse:slv did it take..."

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:20 | 2447922 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

WTF happened to my FB profitz??

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:20 | 2447924 Heavy
Heavy's picture

Hopefully they did not get enough pieces of silver to save their sorry asses.  Let them eat fail.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:28 | 2447944 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

LOL at the idea that the IMF has a soul... really ZH you should know better

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:29 | 2447947 Gromit
Gromit's picture

No nation will say anything nice about Argentina or cooperate with them - so they have figured out they don't have to play by someone else's rules.

As long as terms of trade are favorable they'll continue to do well.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:33 | 2448131 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Not only but there's a strong policy of industrial development and export replacement with local industries, program for making cientists come back (more than 800 returned recently), free schools and universities, free national healthcare system (not perfect, but in some aspect, more than good) and many other interesting policies are being carried out. The vast majority is ok with that, things keep getting better and better in spite of the continuous boicot of corporative media and other "good guys" at the service of the global systemic shit we all know.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 01:57 | 2449932 AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

I agree.  I travel to Argentina frequently and will be returning soon.  I communicate with many Argentines weekly.  Outside of Buenos Aires, there is a general sense of optimism and most people do believe that life is getting better in real and tangible ways.  No one with whom I communicate has experienced any power outages for some time: 1 or 2 during the heat wave, but many U.S. cities would have had similar problems with 110 degree heat.  In fact, when I was in Chicago several years ago, the power failed for 12 hours during a heat wave.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:36 | 2447967 I am on to you
I am on to you's picture

Could it not be to the fact,that there some players at the big casino wheel,that directs the IMF.

I was in Argentia 2008,and all i saw there, was more and more poors at the streets,and The veterans of Las Malvinas sitting and begging for handouts.

They(the socalled)big players plays everybody on the Global Fidlle,but its completely out of tune!

Now lets se,if the Americans have the Balls,when it comes to election day,like the Greeks,and say no,to the political establishment,and world Corporated Governance,and elects some real people,uncorrupted with no attachments,to the Banks!

Then this might happend:

I had a dream a guy once said,i have one to,not simular,but then again:No Laws, without JUSTICE this is the promised land,laws we have enogh of,its the lack of justice that screams out to everyone,they robbed Greece and the other Piigs,and got away with it,and until somebody stops them,they just goes on!

Lets Mourn for the less fortunated,then we got somewhere!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:03 | 2448031 AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

There is poverty in Argentina.  Have you been to Philadelphia, Washington D.C., South Central Los Angeles or Detroit lately?  The poverty in American inner cities is every bit as bad, if not worse, than the poverty in Buenos Aires and La Salta.

Much of the interior and countryside of Argentina, however, is not poor at all.  In fact, their electrical grid and irrigation systems are state-of-the-art.  The problem in Argentina is the currency.  Inflation makes saving and investing in new business very difficult.  Also pro-labor laws and judges make every hire a risky venture.

The Argentines have adapted to inflation well, however.  They save in USD, Euros, and more recently in gold.  What the country needs, more than anything, is stable capital.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:10 | 2448056 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

I'm in Argentina. You saw Buenos Aires, the only district governed by the corporative "republicans". There's much more other than Buenos Aires City, the best is out of the Capital. Macri is a very useful man of the establishment. Can't evaluate Argentina based on Buenos Aires City. Thank God! Look at the fundamentals and the fact that Central Bank belongs to the State and many province banks are controlled by the regional governments.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:37 | 2447970 couvrot
couvrot's picture

I live in Argentina. Inflation, 30%(at least). Poverty rate, 20%. Public debt,200 billion US $. Strikes every day. Infrastructure falling apart. Electricity cuts every day. Prohibition to buy US dollars. Official peso rate 4.48, black market 5.70!!!!!! , etc etc

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:25 | 2448101 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Wrong. I've my own inflation rates (and the improvement of the Economy can be seen by all the index that matter); Public debt (around U$S 171 bn) has to be decoded and considered with GDP. Strikes (very limited mostly to companies privatized during the '90s) have many reasons, both political and economic ones). Infrastructure falling is that which is been privatized during the '90s and is not all over the country. Electricity almost never cutted out outside Buenos Aires. There's no prohibition to by US Dollars (a lie from corporative media) but you have to prove to have the capability to buy foreing currencies. You can buy curriencies at the official price in any national or regional bank (everywhere). Black market: Idiots that don't know shit about current financial global situation. This guys are everywhere; I have friends who are desperate for selling off Euros and US Dollars! (Nobody is buying outside of Buenos Aires City!). But is cool to spread you can't do well after defaulting, specially now, considering the Eurozone, isn't it?

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:39 | 2447974 Joebloinvestor
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I would really like to know who is guarding the gold.

If it got moved, then Greece has nothing to base a drachma on except "faith".

I bet that doesn't get disclosed until the game is over.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:43 | 2447983 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Traditionally it has been 30.

However since then it is   30! (factorial) as Judus leveraged up on it.......and that is how fiat money all began children..

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:44 | 2447989 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Safe to say that the IMF like all central banks have a propesed idealistic mandate, but is run by and owned by bankers who's intention couldn't be further from the mandates.

Solution: end all central banks and redesign the financial system.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:49 | 2447993 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

To understand Argentina, just listen to Adrian Salbuchi. That is one switched-on Argentinian.

Guess who's f*cking Argentina penniless and has been for quite some time now? Draining Her like some bottle of warmed True Blood.

Ring any bells? Would you be shocked to learn it is not Iranians?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:48 | 2447994 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

The Greeks are the firewall protecting Italy and Spain but in actual fact they have nothing to gain themselves. They didn't make the rules of this game, they simply stayed in the game as the stakes were raised without knowing they were being posted as collateral. They will default if that is the best option. Whether they leave the EuroZone or are simply quarantined is irrelevant to Greeks - they have the same problem of paying for medicines, food, fuel, and housing. That is the simple truth whatever is printed on the coupons that masquerade as money. People have had much worse options - interwar Hungary, Poland, Romania were not exactly lovely but they survived. Survival is the New Game - the old game was Money, Credit, Consumption.

We should be reading Reinventing Collapse every day so we know where the Politicos are taking us........all of us.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:02 | 2448023 bsdetector
bsdetector's picture

The reason is contagion. If Greece can do it other countries will too. The IMF sees this probability as a threat. Argentina was an isolated event... Greece is the begining of the end of the grand scheme. All the minions who claim the sky is falling are protecting their vested interests. Those interests are also protected by the IMF.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:57 | 2448025 dunce
dunce's picture

Most of the actions suggested are based on the premise that the preservation of the euro and the european parliment are good things. I think neither is true. The whole scheme is unrepresentative and oppressive, just another socialist plan to rule with philosopher kings. I just noticed ,philosopher kings is an oxymoron.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:16 | 2448076 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

The IMF's primary job is to protect itself...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:34 | 2448132 Pseudolus
Pseudolus's picture

What is this bleeding-heart nonsense? I thought this was fight club?

Argentina, Greece....its just business - nothing personal - no Queensbury rules here....commerce is war, dont yer know?

 

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:48 | 2448185 ATM
ATM's picture

In the Euro or out of the Euro won't matter for Greece. It is fucked either way.

The reason they cannot be let out of the Euro is because then TPTB lose control fo them and they cannot and will not let that happen. TPTB don't give a fuck about the Greek people. They give a fuck about TPTB.

And without power to wield what the fuck are they? Greece leave the Euro? Preposterous. The Euro is going to be printed to pay off Greece's debt and "save" the Euro trash banks, but of course that printing will wreak havoc across the continent and screw the Greek people (and the french/spanish/italian/irish/portuguese...) but who cares about them?

There is power to retain and by God these muthafuckers will do everything they can to retain power, consolidate power while blaming the free market and the bourgeoisie for all they have caused.

We will see if the people are smart enough to figure it out. 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 14:43 | 2448360 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

evidently the author is under the mistaken assumption that the IMF is some kind of  missionary organization, rather than the predatory, piratical, asset stripping gangsters that we all know so well. go read John Perkins or Greg Palast for chrissakes and you'll soon understand that excruciating debt burdens and the outright theft and privitization of national infrastructure and state resources have been their calling card ever since Bretton Woods.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 15:08 | 2448475 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Even simpler: look at the financial crisis they engineered in 90s Asia. Of course they claim that they've learned from past mistakes and are a much better organization now...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 15:44 | 2448583 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...it's the genius of the ''austerity'' RU486 reality of ''oops, we need more tax payers to reach our bonus but we aborted/sacrificed ourselves''.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAyKo7oBBSA

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:02 | 2449114 neutrinoman
neutrinoman's picture

The IMF didn't have its hands tied. It just found Greece trapped inside an unprecedented straitjacket called the euro-zone. The IMF doesn't have the power to force the EU or the EC or the ECB to come to its senses.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 02:52 | 2461478 agagshoes
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