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MS CDS Soars As Cramer Says "Morgan Stanley Is Fine"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Minutes ago Jim Cramer, reverting to his traditional inverse bank psychic, whose track record needs just one word of reminder, and that is Bear Stearns, told everyone that Morgan Stanley is fine. It may well be. However, we doubt it, as does the market, which just sent out the firm's CDS up another 32bps to 528bps, the widest since 10/13/08 having only traded wider than this level from 9/16/08 to 10/13/08. Critically for those looking at CDS not being as bad as during the peak of the crisis and gaining comfort from that - CDS did not trade gently to those extremes - it gapped unmercifully wider with incredible day to day volatility. Furthermore, for those talking about how illiquid CDS are and easily manipulated, we remind them that it is bonds that cracked first (a much more broadly owned and traded set of instruments) and only very recently has CDS started to catch up to the wide/risky levels at which bonds trade.

 

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Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:11 | 1732913 GeneMarchbanks
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Next stop 1400! I hope they choke on their own puke, but that's just me...

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:37 | 1733027 Imminent Crucible
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Would this be the same Jim Cramer that said "Your money is safe in Bear Stearns"?

A Cramer endorsement is now the kiss of death.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:44 | 1733062 Don Birnam
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As an aside, the body language interplay between Melissa Lee and Craymo can be at times rather amusing. If the camera is too quick, a once-in-a-while scowl can be evident, as well as the "Anchor Booth Lean" away from Jimmy when he is seated next to her; particularly during one of his rambling, spittle-specked rants.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 13:27 | 1733615 strannick
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Crammer's reverse alchemy working its wizardry once again, and his 'such and such is fine' pronouncements with table banging -ala Bear Stearns- rings in certain doom. The only comparably, uncannily accurate contra-indicator analysis, is from Nadler on gold.

Ask not for whom Crammer's gong show tolls Morgan Stanley, it tolls for thee

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 14:12 | 1733928 sgt_doom
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I heard Cramer's also bullish on Italian banks:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-30/morgan-stanley-seen-as-risky-as-italian-banks-in-swaps-market.html

Morgan Stanley (MS), which owns the world’s largest retail brokerage, is being priced in the credit- default swaps market as less creditworthy than most U.S., U.K. and French banks and as risky as Italy’s biggest lenders.

http://wearethe99percent.tumblr.com/

 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:11 | 1732914 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Does that mean they are a take over candidate for JPM?

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:12 | 1732920 GeneMarchbanks
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si

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:20 | 1732965 DeadFred
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One bank to rule them all, and in the darkness bind them

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:37 | 1733035 theXman
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With John Mack gone, Morgan Stanley will survive this time. He probably sensed that end was near and it was going to be even a bigger challenge than 2008, so he bailed out the sinking ship. 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 11:37 | 1733204 FMR Bankster
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History shows a wharf rat can't scurry off a sinking ship faster than a CEO can get out of a collapsing company.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:11 | 1732916 Quinvarius
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He probably got paid a lot to say that.  Sometimes he gives honest thought to what he says.  Other times he is obviously being paid to schill. 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:17 | 1732945 maxmad
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Or he just says what the Elites want him too? 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:38 | 1733037 Quinvarius
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Yeah.  He has to pay his dues sometimes.  The elite will cash out his credibility like a piggy bank.  Gain trust.  Spend trust.  Find more trust.  Spend that trust.  It is the cycle of Wall Street fraud.  Kind of like Bush spending his "political capital" to further ruin the nation until it was all gone.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:22 | 1732976 DeadFred
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His charitable foundation likely just got a big donation. Maybe his private account as well.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:13 | 1732925 Blorf
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Kodak is fine.  They are up 70% today!

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:18 | 1732956 maxmad
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Yep because I know alot of people who want outdated instant print Kodak cameras for Christmas!

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:14 | 1732926 DaveyJones
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"fine" is one of those meaningless words that can mean I just won the lottery or I'm about to commit suicide.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:46 | 1733067 Spastica Rex
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Yeah, I feel fine most every day now.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 16:42 | 1734500 DaveyJones
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It is also very close to the word fineD which we will all be soon so they can avoid the word TAX. See camera tickets and other things 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:14 | 1732932 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Q: Could you be wrong?

A: Have I ever been right? It could happen.

Q: Past performance is not indicative of future results. 

A: Thank goodness for that.

He's an ugly cheerleader...

 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:15 | 1732933 duckhook
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I have no idea about MS insolvency and neither does Mr Cramer.If MS really wants to dispell these rumors.it should release details about how much and what sovereign debt they own   and detalied lists of their hedges with amounts ,making sure to list the counterparties.If they trully have  hedges with solid counterparties ,then they are ok and Mr Cramer is correct 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:24 | 1732987 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

I think I can help you with your dilemma regarding MS solvency......THEY WILL BE INSOLVENT WHEN GREECE DEFAULTS....hope this helped.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 14:13 | 1733932 sgt_doom
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Thank you, mfoste1, thank you....

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:15 | 1732934 Outlaw Of The W...
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the jew is in the "market".  As always.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 20:24 | 1735250 theotheri
theotheri's picture

Tyler Hedge Hog.  You fucking cunt.  How can you allow this racist crap on your site>>>>>>>???????!!!!!!

Have you no conscience you god damn ignorant fool?????

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:16 | 1732937 Stoploss
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LOLOLOL!!!! FAMOUS LAST WORDS LOLOL!!!

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:17 | 1732944 Sizzurp
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He said Bear Stearns would be fine as well.........ooops.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:17 | 1732951 Fish Gone Bad
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Fuck Cramer

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:18 | 1732953 oogs66
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the bond market is far less liquid :D  too funny!

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:19 | 1732960 RobotTrader
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MS stock acting terrible today.

No bounces at all.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:20 | 1732964 doomandbloom
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How does one differentiate between 'investing' , 'speculating' and 'gambling'?

Investment banks are not just 'market makers' ( a term which implies that they are middlemen, which i believe at some point technology will do this job), their role is to invest and make money.

My question is...why do we have to make money? why do we need to work?

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:38 | 1733038 Debugas
Debugas's picture

'investing' is when you buy stocks for long to let the company to upgrade its productive capacity (upgrade machinery or optimize activities etc)

'speculating' is when you trade on inside information you get from your buddies-insiders

'gambling' is when you trade without proper information whatsoever

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:48 | 1733072 doomandbloom
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Can one invest on a horse race?

There is enough information available about owners, previous races, capability, breed, etc

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 11:48 | 1733270 batterycharged
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"investing" is what most people THINK they are doing with their 401k .

"speculating" is what insiders are doing contrary to most people's 401K

and "gambling" is REALLY what most people are doing with their 401K.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 14:17 | 1733939 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

In truth, it's all about ultra-leveraged speculation and financial manipulation, thanks to all those naked swaps, often referred to as "unregulated insurance" -- 'cause if they were regulated, it would illegal.  (Why does everything so obvious always have to be stated???)

And since they've peddled trillions (actually, hundreds of trillions) of dollars of worthless credit derivatives, which they use as a base to do ultra-leveraging including naked swaps attacks, then it really would be correct to describe it as simply rigged, insider financial manipulation.

Over three years without mark-to-market,......

bye, bye MS.....

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:21 | 1732974 Homerpalooza
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What was the vol on the MS CDS?

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:27 | 1732996 bankerboy
bankerboy's picture

why don't u look it up yourself...

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:40 | 1733050 Homerpalooza
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Good answer. I rest my case.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:23 | 1732982 Gordon Marock
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I recall a famous line from 'Evil Dead II' where the protagonist, Ash, is reassuring himself that he is 'fine,' and a voice from the void replies 'You just cut off your girlfriend's head with a chainsaw. Does that sound 'fine' to you???'

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:35 | 1733025 Debugas
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if you want to do big money - listen to Jim Cramer and DO THE OPPOSIT of what he advises to do

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:39 | 1733043 buzzsaw99
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death knell for margin stanley?

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:40 | 1733047 oogs66
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i bet within a week, everyone is talking about MS's exposure to China being a problem, though ZH put it up first

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:45 | 1733065 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

It was Cramer I believe that coined the term, The Greater Fool.     However if you consistently follow his advice you ultimately tend to become, The Greatest Fool. 

At least he's consistent.

 

 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 11:07 | 1733109 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Asshat Cramer also told people not to sell Bear Stearns stock in March 2008.

I have faded him many times throughout the last 4 years and I've done very well.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 11:15 | 1733129 OCTOPVS
OCTOPVS's picture

BankerBpy what bank do you work for that you access to all of that jazz....CDS on morgan would be a great way for big players to hedge against a big long position....remember CDS is cna be used as a form of insurance.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 11:17 | 1733136 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

jimmy "cunt" cramer makin' the big call. What a piece of shit this clown is

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 11:50 | 1733281 batterycharged
batterycharged's picture

You can just say Bear Sterns, or you can Google "jim cramer housing bottom". It's quite funny.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 12:04 | 1733337 Anarchus
Anarchus's picture

In the financial crisis of 2011, Morgan Stanley isn't playing the role of Morgan Stanley in 2008, it's in a death-spiral competition with BofA for playing the role that Lehman played in 2008:  the major collapse that (almost) sank the other ships.

In 3Q 2007, Countrywide was poised to star in the role before BofA stepped in with its initial $2 bil. investment and then in 1Q 2008 Bear Stearns thought it had the lead nailed down until Jamie Dimon and JP Morgan stepped in at the last moment . . . . . . . . . then Lehman turned out to be friendless in mid-Sept 2008 and the tidal wave rolled in.

Keep your eye on MS and remember the USS Lehman Bros.  This October, I think MS is even more the coal mine canary than BofA.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 12:04 | 1733341 MGA_1
MGA_1's picture

Too Big Too Fail - the fed will come to the rescue if necessary.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 12:22 | 1733424 Hephasteus
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I guess the lesson here is don't fight the silver liberation army. You'll get knocked the fuck out.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 13:14 | 1733668 imapedestrian
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I have to say... I am no fan of PIIGS or big banks... but why the obsessive focus on CDS?  Are not those "securities" also traded and quoted by that independent and honest firm called MarkIt!  I mean... come on guys, if we are going to be bearish around here let's be honest about it.  Who gives a rats ass about Greek CDS... the Fed wants attention off the US so they call their frineds at JP Morgan (an owner of MarkIt!) and say "What the fuck am I paying you shits for?!?!  Get off your ass and make some problems for Europe!!!!! (slam goes the telephone)"  Then Tyler Durden runs over and posts how high the CDS are nowe for Greece. 

Italian bonds are mostly held by Italian banks, citizens and other European banks... who is selling... nobody... the CDS are rising (wag the dog if I have seen it before!).

The elite are playing hot potato.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 14:21 | 1733947 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

".. but why the obsessive focus on CDS?"

Because too many don't pick up on the nuances the way you, my fine fellow, do.

As Matt Taibbi said recently, most Ameritards still don't understand the causes for the meltdown, and (my words) probably never will --- detracts from their sports/entertainment/Kardashian/porn watching.....

http://wearethe99percent.tumblr.com/

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 15:37 | 1734192 theotheri
theotheri's picture

I'm confused by your comment. I am a jewish person. What exactly are you implying about all Jewish people?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 15:51 | 1766929 karmete
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