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Mutiny At The ECB?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A lot of desk chatter about this move in risk-assets - and the entire reversion to red on the day in EURUSD - as a WSJ report now circulating suggests that ECB members are not backing reported proposals by President Draghi. Specifically, the statement referenced is the following: "Many ECB Members Surprised By Draghi's Comments Suggesting New Bond Buys, Source Tells WSJ". The bottom line here is that Draghi most likely pulled a Mario Monti (and his hanger on Mariano Rajoy), and spoke up before pre-clearing with Buba's Weidmann. Draghi thinks that, like Monti with Merkel at the June 29 summit, he can bluff the Bundesbank into submission, and Germany will agree to monetization, especially if markets have risen enough where nothing out of the ECB next week leads to a market plunge (as the WSJ explains below). The problem is that as we patiently explained, Monti got absolutely no concessions our of Merkel, as was seen in the bond yields of Spain after the June 29 summit, which hit record wides a few weeks later. Expect the same this time around too: i.e., Germany will hardly cave in to the European beggars.

From the WSJ:

Of course, the markets may have simply over-reacted to Mr. Draghi’s speech in London, or he may not have intended to give the impression he did. But either way, Italian and Spanish sovereign bond yields crept back up again before easing as the French newspaper Le Monde suggested the ECB is indeed preparing to buy Spanish and Italian debt in co-operation with euro-zone governments. Stocks and the euro moved up, down and then back up again. If this sounds chaotic, it is. But one thing is sure. If the ECB does nothing next week, the markets will tumble.

Further, from Citi's European GC desk:

Mr.Draghi surprise outburst to defend EUR and possibly the government bond yields took  many off guard yesterday. The knee jerk risk on move suffice to say has helped to pull  peripheral bonds well below its highs with Spain now yielding ~6.6% in 10yr, off the highs  of ~7.5%. We doubt the rally will last as a long term trend for number of reasons despite  Mr. Draghi’s comment that “IF PREMIA ON GOVT BORROWING HURT MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISION,  THEY COME WITHIN OUR MANDATE”.

 

First, even if Mr. Draghi manages to wiggle out the SMP from the locked box, it won’t  change reality in the long run as we have seen last year when yields continued to increase  during sporadic bond purchases. Instead they only provide opportunity for the market to  sell their holdings and reduce the liquidity available for certain bonds, as well as  increase both the specialness of the bond and the fails rate. There are talks of  alternatives, i.e. reducing the haircut of the existing haircuts on collateral which would  boost amount of cash to the banks or widening collateral eligibility etc. But none of them  address the underlying problem of the Euro.  In some perspectives a large consistent SMP  buying would bring down the yields and give more time for Spain, albeit their unemployment  rate was rising again to 24.6% in the second quarter vs. 24.4% in the prior 3 months.  Labour reform anybody?  Spanish competitiveness? How to fix this staggering figure is more important.

Source: Citi FX

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Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:36 | 2657640 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

When does Mario Draghi go on vacation?

(Weidman better wait until Merkel comes back before he goes on vacation.)

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:36 | 2657695 HD
HD's picture

Based on the thread title my guess is Tahiti...

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 15:16 | 2657819 veyron
veyron's picture

Shorts getting mandingo'd as we speak ...

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:38 | 2657702 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Well, F*Ck ME!!!  IF the FRENCH Newspaper Le Monde is reporting that what Draghi says will be done, and be done with German money, than it must be true, bitchez!!!!!

 

 

LMFAO-BATSHITLUNANCY

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:46 | 2657733 Solon the Destroyer
Solon the Destroyer's picture

Jean-Claude Juncker: "When it becomes serious, you have to lie."

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:50 | 2657744 PhilB
PhilB's picture

DOnt mess with Super Mario....last time he acted, he sent the mkt flying. While a few months dont make a long term trend, if you are short here, you are getting your ass handed to you  and you will lose more in the next couple of months. Time to be long folks..we have cratered enough in Europe and EM. Market is going higher...like it or not, for good reason or not.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 15:09 | 2657805 markar
markar's picture

But he's not acting this time. Only talking out of his ass. Big difference. He can't do a thing while Mutti is away.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:16 | 2657959 PhilB
PhilB's picture

Sorry, Draghi is not talking out of his ass. You will have a policy action on August 2nd.

Amazing how many negative votes one gets if one dares to mention even the chance of a bear mkt rally here. Come on folks, be a little real. We went from 1075 last year to 1375 now, dont think the same cant happen in Europe with a strong policy action, which you will get. Im not saying it wont fade, but if you trade you will lose being short here.

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:03 | 2658072 PhilB
PhilB's picture

The more negative votes i get the more confident I am that there are a lot of shorts or guys massively underweight this market. Everyone is so bearish hence the massive rally in last two days.

Mark my words folks, SP breaks 1400 next month...heard it hear first folks.

You guys are just a bunch of sore losers...learn to win and lose, else you are about as good at trading as an economist. Momentum has shifted once again..."fly you fools".

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 22:16 | 2658482 Hedge Fund of One
Hedge Fund of One's picture

Not sure whether there are so many shorts here as there are gold bugs. I agree that people need to learn to play the market either way.
Recently, there have been plenty of major downtrends to ride in the markets.  For those who don't know any other way to trade than short, there has been coal, a number of commodities, Italy, Spain, China, many of the financials, solars, and many others. There will be more. We have seen a number of unfounded rumors and talking pieholes spark market rallies just as the markets were falling through support. Often, the markets continue to rally even after those rumors have been debunked. I have been learning to take the rallies seriously and go with the flow, but always with downside protection. 

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 15:35 | 2657828 erik
erik's picture

 

 

classic stuff...

rumor -----> stock ramp

rebuff -----> stocks don't drop back to original location

result -----> voila! making higher stock prices out of thin air (or hot air if you will)

also allows for ECB announcement to now be a mild "surprise" instead of an expectation, thus driving stocks ------> higher

wash, rinse, repeat.  disgusting.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:40 | 2657934 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

The Draghulacitos look-alikes take a steam bath vacation in Hades just for a night so they can stand daylight of some sort for another moon.

They might look like vampires, but they are paid slaves
off the dark to further the system. Which increasingly looks like being run from a coffin.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:28 | 2657641 surf0766
surf0766's picture

will this hit the "news" headline?

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:29 | 2657652 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Yes...today at 4:01pm

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 15:16 | 2657823 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Problem is even if markets tumble next week, will it tumble more than 500 pts that it gained because of this bullshit??

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:28 | 2657645 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

draghi is a squid first, an italian second, and an eu guy third, if at all.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 15:09 | 2657806 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

Draghi better be careful. His Sicilian compadres will tie his tongue into a French bowline if his big mouth cost them money.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:29 | 2657648 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

When does Mario Draghi decide its not a good idea to steal from people to lend the rightfully broke-ass Spanish and Italian governments money?  

How do such immoral losers like him, Bernanke, and Geithner get to positions that can impact the entire world?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:43 | 2657708 HD
HD's picture

"When does Mario Draghi decide its not a good idea to steal from people to lend the rightfully broke-ass Spanish and Italian governments money?"

Probably the same day he's actually elected to office...so half past never is my guess.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:53 | 2657752 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

the sell their souls to GS

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:29 | 2657649 CreditcalMass
CreditcalMass's picture

Night of the long printing press, coming up.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:29 | 2657651 rfaze
rfaze's picture

This is fucking nuts!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:29 | 2657655 moroots
moroots's picture

the ECB is revolting!

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:32 | 2657673 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

I know, but are they rejecting the authority of their status quo?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:38 | 2657707 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Everyone loves a good mutiny.

Son, I'm Captain Jack Sparrow

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5vfWhwBdiw

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:31 | 2657657 Cursive
Cursive's picture

RE: Draghi -  If you're gonna go down, go down swinging for the fence.

ETA: Draghi's (numbered) UBS account is 3x long SPY, so all is good in Marioland.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:30 | 2657661 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So....should be good for +3% across equities today then?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:31 | 2657663 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I just spoke to my dad. We have both been in the business. He said to me in an all knowing way "today proves this is why you don't sell the winners". I said "this will prove that those who don't learn from history are prone to repeat it".

He got pissed at that. My point I guess, is the insanity of this whole thing is driving wedges in people at every level. Not just the ecb. Half the people have no fkin clue and the other half need the world to come crashing down to prove that they do.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:35 | 2657684 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Don't sell the winners'....awesome rear-view mirror trading strategy right there.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:38 | 2657703 adr
adr's picture

Some people like making money without having to work for it.

That is the problem with the global economy in a nutshell.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:44 | 2657714 centerline
centerline's picture

My father-in-law is the poster child for normalcy bias.  LOL.  And my wife is caught in the middle (doesn't know who to believe... but, my routine and accurate predictions are starting to rattle her cage).

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:00 | 2657925 falak pema
falak pema's picture

with an avatar like that you must rattle her to her g-mailed center point : ggggg ooogle me bad.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:40 | 2657717 HedgeOn
HedgeOn's picture

It's comical to me when I speak to anyone who's been in the business for any length of time how clueless they are.  They think all of this is normal.  Most of the so call "professionals" are praying for the market to get back to normal.  I try to limit my conversations to how fucking hot it is.  Because if I have to listen to one more 'tard talk about how things always get better right after pessimism is so high, I might go postal.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 15:10 | 2657807 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

Hence the problem with, "This time is different."

Bears use this quip sarcastically after bubbles have burst.  Bulls use this quip earnestly when bubbles are being inflated.  And so far both camps have been right, since the end of the financial world has not (yet) come to pass.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:52 | 2657751 miker
miker's picture

Extremely well stated and true.  The craziness is increasing exponentially and ultimately may be the driver of the collapse.  People just fed up and pull their money out of everything. 

Lot's of divorces have resulted from this mess.......maybe not the strongest marriages but big time financial mistakes or lost big salary jobs and many have split.  Sad to see; especially when there are kids. 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:56 | 2657761 phalfa5
phalfa5's picture

wud u be so kind to speak to my wife?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 15:17 | 2657826 Jake88
Jake88's picture

duh the only thing that hasn't come crashing down is the stock market.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 06:41 | 2658716 Hedge Fund of One
Hedge Fund of One's picture

... yet 

 

and "yet" may be as long as it takes to run many bears (and bulls) to insolvency/insanity. 

:-)

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:31 | 2657666 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I need to run to the store and get some popcorn

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:51 | 2657745 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Get some white cheddar cheese flavoring to sprinkle on it too.  The 10yr bond yield could jump 10% today.  It's up nearly 9% now.  This must be what the Fed means when is says it will do whatever it needs to do to ensure it's price stability mandate.  I'd sure hate to see what would happen if prices ever became unstable.  It's a good thing they're taking care of it all so we don't have to worry about anything.  thanks.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:35 | 2657668 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Ok, so the Draghi speach was a rumor which artificially spiked the markets, but this is a rumor that is true so I should buy the dollar, a fiat instrument of finance that is based on the promise to pay the US debt, because the euro is going to implode but the US is fine?

How about this:  the financiers are washing the market back and forth in hope to confuse you as to what happens next?  Ever think that they are playing both sides of the market?  Ever think that they are creating a dialectic which you are falling prey to?

You close minded people are fucking idiots, always screaming that deflation is coming and to buy the dollar and that Europe is going to implode but the US is fine and that QE 3 is priced in when the UST issues trillions of dollars of debt every year which is bought by the Federal Reserve from the Private Dealers T+1. 

Step outside of the paradigm:  the dollar has no intrinsic value.  All financial assets are based in dollar terms.  Therefore nothing has a fair value.

Who fucking cares that Draghi said this and Merkle said that and QE or not rah rah rah.  Do not listen to the talking heads and the news makers.  Step outside of the pardigm to find the truth.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:47 | 2657738 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

who on here is screaming on here buy dollars? Besides our resident perma-comic-trolls.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 15:18 | 2657832 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

Don't buy anything that isn't gold or silver, that isn't minted by a government (other than China), that you can't hold in your hot little hands, that you can't stack, that you don't have complete physical possession of, and that has any counterparty risk.

Trolls, disregard this and go long in Spanish and Italian bonds.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 03:46 | 2658681 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

I agree with everything you said, except : "don't buy anything... that isn't minted by a government."

Better deals on refinery bars, and once the currencies collapse, it's doubtful ANYONE is going to have ANY faith in the "government."

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:52 | 2657748 GlomarHabu
GlomarHabu's picture

Anyone who wears a badge, works for an entity associated with "security" in this country are now all SWAT gestapo who don't know shit about, nor care about, the Constitution of this country.

Not only is there a financial collaspe coming but also a reckoning, a settling of accounts, between those of us who do know history and know legal orders from illegal ones, and the goons who are just that, goons. Fuck'm.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 15:25 | 2657850 viahj
viahj's picture

who the fuck are the "Federal Protective Service agents"

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 15:25 | 2657851 Jake88
Jake88's picture

Alex Jones has published so much bullshit and false rumors that nobody should take anything he says seriously. If he had any credibility we would have long ago attacked Iran gone thru a nuclear holocaust and survivors would be under martial law with millions in prison camps. That is any of us who survived the intentional bird flu massacre of 2009. The guy is a complete asshole.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:33 | 2657675 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

I think these assholes should be subject to lawsuit when they open their mouths and tell blatant market-moving (lies) statements that they know are without merit.  Public company officials have to hold their tongues, why not these pricks??????????

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 14:35 | 2657688 surf0766
surf0766's picture

It is the controlled media reporting it. If they had any clue it would have never made print

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