This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Mutiny At The ECB?
A lot of desk chatter about this move in risk-assets - and the entire reversion to red on the day in EURUSD - as a WSJ report now circulating suggests that ECB members are not backing reported proposals by President Draghi. Specifically, the statement referenced is the following: "Many ECB Members Surprised By Draghi's Comments Suggesting New Bond Buys, Source Tells WSJ". The bottom line here is that Draghi most likely pulled a Mario Monti (and his hanger on Mariano Rajoy), and spoke up before pre-clearing with Buba's Weidmann. Draghi thinks that, like Monti with Merkel at the June 29 summit, he can bluff the Bundesbank into submission, and Germany will agree to monetization, especially if markets have risen enough where nothing out of the ECB next week leads to a market plunge (as the WSJ explains below). The problem is that as we patiently explained, Monti got absolutely no concessions our of Merkel, as was seen in the bond yields of Spain after the June 29 summit, which hit record wides a few weeks later. Expect the same this time around too: i.e., Germany will hardly cave in to the European beggars.
From the WSJ:
Of course, the markets may have simply over-reacted to Mr. Draghi’s speech in London, or he may not have intended to give the impression he did. But either way, Italian and Spanish sovereign bond yields crept back up again before easing as the French newspaper Le Monde suggested the ECB is indeed preparing to buy Spanish and Italian debt in co-operation with euro-zone governments. Stocks and the euro moved up, down and then back up again. If this sounds chaotic, it is. But one thing is sure. If the ECB does nothing next week, the markets will tumble.
Further, from Citi's European GC desk:
Mr.Draghi surprise outburst to defend EUR and possibly the government bond yields took many off guard yesterday. The knee jerk risk on move suffice to say has helped to pull peripheral bonds well below its highs with Spain now yielding ~6.6% in 10yr, off the highs of ~7.5%. We doubt the rally will last as a long term trend for number of reasons despite Mr. Draghi’s comment that “IF PREMIA ON GOVT BORROWING HURT MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISION, THEY COME WITHIN OUR MANDATE”.
First, even if Mr. Draghi manages to wiggle out the SMP from the locked box, it won’t change reality in the long run as we have seen last year when yields continued to increase during sporadic bond purchases. Instead they only provide opportunity for the market to sell their holdings and reduce the liquidity available for certain bonds, as well as increase both the specialness of the bond and the fails rate. There are talks of alternatives, i.e. reducing the haircut of the existing haircuts on collateral which would boost amount of cash to the banks or widening collateral eligibility etc. But none of them address the underlying problem of the Euro. In some perspectives a large consistent SMP buying would bring down the yields and give more time for Spain, albeit their unemployment rate was rising again to 24.6% in the second quarter vs. 24.4% in the prior 3 months. Labour reform anybody? Spanish competitiveness? How to fix this staggering figure is more important.
Source: Citi FX
»
- 13001 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
When does Mario Draghi go on vacation?
(Weidman better wait until Merkel comes back before he goes on vacation.)
Based on the thread title my guess is Tahiti...
Shorts getting mandingo'd as we speak ...
Well, F*Ck ME!!! IF the FRENCH Newspaper Le Monde is reporting that what Draghi says will be done, and be done with German money, than it must be true, bitchez!!!!!
LMFAO-BATSHITLUNANCY
Jean-Claude Juncker: "When it becomes serious, you have to lie."
DOnt mess with Super Mario....last time he acted, he sent the mkt flying. While a few months dont make a long term trend, if you are short here, you are getting your ass handed to you and you will lose more in the next couple of months. Time to be long folks..we have cratered enough in Europe and EM. Market is going higher...like it or not, for good reason or not.
But he's not acting this time. Only talking out of his ass. Big difference. He can't do a thing while Mutti is away.
Sorry, Draghi is not talking out of his ass. You will have a policy action on August 2nd.
Amazing how many negative votes one gets if one dares to mention even the chance of a bear mkt rally here. Come on folks, be a little real. We went from 1075 last year to 1375 now, dont think the same cant happen in Europe with a strong policy action, which you will get. Im not saying it wont fade, but if you trade you will lose being short here.
The more negative votes i get the more confident I am that there are a lot of shorts or guys massively underweight this market. Everyone is so bearish hence the massive rally in last two days.
Mark my words folks, SP breaks 1400 next month...heard it hear first folks.
You guys are just a bunch of sore losers...learn to win and lose, else you are about as good at trading as an economist. Momentum has shifted once again..."fly you fools".
Not sure whether there are so many shorts here as there are gold bugs. I agree that people need to learn to play the market either way.
Recently, there have been plenty of major downtrends to ride in the markets. For those who don't know any other way to trade than short, there has been coal, a number of commodities, Italy, Spain, China, many of the financials, solars, and many others. There will be more. We have seen a number of unfounded rumors and talking pieholes spark market rallies just as the markets were falling through support. Often, the markets continue to rally even after those rumors have been debunked. I have been learning to take the rallies seriously and go with the flow, but always with downside protection.
classic stuff...
rumor -----> stock ramp
rebuff -----> stocks don't drop back to original location
result -----> voila! making higher stock prices out of thin air (or hot air if you will)
also allows for ECB announcement to now be a mild "surprise" instead of an expectation, thus driving stocks ------> higher
wash, rinse, repeat. disgusting.
The Draghulacitos look-alikes take a steam bath vacation in Hades just for a night so they can stand daylight of some sort for another moon.
They might look like vampires, but they are paid slaves
off the dark to further the system. Which increasingly looks like being run from a coffin.
will this hit the "news" headline?
Yes...today at 4:01pm
Problem is even if markets tumble next week, will it tumble more than 500 pts that it gained because of this bullshit??
draghi is a squid first, an italian second, and an eu guy third, if at all.
Draghi better be careful. His Sicilian compadres will tie his tongue into a French bowline if his big mouth cost them money.
When does Mario Draghi decide its not a good idea to steal from people to lend the rightfully broke-ass Spanish and Italian governments money?
How do such immoral losers like him, Bernanke, and Geithner get to positions that can impact the entire world?
"When does Mario Draghi decide its not a good idea to steal from people to lend the rightfully broke-ass Spanish and Italian governments money?"
Probably the same day he's actually elected to office...so half past never is my guess.
the sell their souls to GS
Night of the long printing press, coming up.
This is fucking nuts!!!!!!!!!!!!
the ECB is revolting!
I know, but are they rejecting the authority of their status quo?
Everyone loves a good mutiny.
Son, I'm Captain Jack Sparrow
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5vfWhwBdiw
RE: Draghi - If you're gonna go down, go down swinging for the fence.
ETA: Draghi's (numbered) UBS account is 3x long SPY, so all is good in Marioland.
So....should be good for +3% across equities today then?
I just spoke to my dad. We have both been in the business. He said to me in an all knowing way "today proves this is why you don't sell the winners". I said "this will prove that those who don't learn from history are prone to repeat it".
He got pissed at that. My point I guess, is the insanity of this whole thing is driving wedges in people at every level. Not just the ecb. Half the people have no fkin clue and the other half need the world to come crashing down to prove that they do.
'Don't sell the winners'....awesome rear-view mirror trading strategy right there.
Some people like making money without having to work for it.
That is the problem with the global economy in a nutshell.
My father-in-law is the poster child for normalcy bias. LOL. And my wife is caught in the middle (doesn't know who to believe... but, my routine and accurate predictions are starting to rattle her cage).
with an avatar like that you must rattle her to her g-mailed center point : ggggg ooogle me bad.
It's comical to me when I speak to anyone who's been in the business for any length of time how clueless they are. They think all of this is normal. Most of the so call "professionals" are praying for the market to get back to normal. I try to limit my conversations to how fucking hot it is. Because if I have to listen to one more 'tard talk about how things always get better right after pessimism is so high, I might go postal.
Hence the problem with, "This time is different."
Bears use this quip sarcastically after bubbles have burst. Bulls use this quip earnestly when bubbles are being inflated. And so far both camps have been right, since the end of the financial world has not (yet) come to pass.
Extremely well stated and true. The craziness is increasing exponentially and ultimately may be the driver of the collapse. People just fed up and pull their money out of everything.
Lot's of divorces have resulted from this mess.......maybe not the strongest marriages but big time financial mistakes or lost big salary jobs and many have split. Sad to see; especially when there are kids.
wud u be so kind to speak to my wife?
duh the only thing that hasn't come crashing down is the stock market.
... yet
and "yet" may be as long as it takes to run many bears (and bulls) to insolvency/insanity.
:-)
I need to run to the store and get some popcorn
Get some white cheddar cheese flavoring to sprinkle on it too. The 10yr bond yield could jump 10% today. It's up nearly 9% now. This must be what the Fed means when is says it will do whatever it needs to do to ensure it's price stability mandate. I'd sure hate to see what would happen if prices ever became unstable. It's a good thing they're taking care of it all so we don't have to worry about anything. thanks.
Ok, so the Draghi speach was a rumor which artificially spiked the markets, but this is a rumor that is true so I should buy the dollar, a fiat instrument of finance that is based on the promise to pay the US debt, because the euro is going to implode but the US is fine?
How about this: the financiers are washing the market back and forth in hope to confuse you as to what happens next? Ever think that they are playing both sides of the market? Ever think that they are creating a dialectic which you are falling prey to?
You close minded people are fucking idiots, always screaming that deflation is coming and to buy the dollar and that Europe is going to implode but the US is fine and that QE 3 is priced in when the UST issues trillions of dollars of debt every year which is bought by the Federal Reserve from the Private Dealers T+1.
Step outside of the paradigm: the dollar has no intrinsic value. All financial assets are based in dollar terms. Therefore nothing has a fair value.
Who fucking cares that Draghi said this and Merkle said that and QE or not rah rah rah. Do not listen to the talking heads and the news makers. Step outside of the pardigm to find the truth.
who on here is screaming on here buy dollars? Besides our resident perma-comic-trolls.
Don't buy anything that isn't gold or silver, that isn't minted by a government (other than China), that you can't hold in your hot little hands, that you can't stack, that you don't have complete physical possession of, and that has any counterparty risk.
Trolls, disregard this and go long in Spanish and Italian bonds.
I agree with everything you said, except : "don't buy anything... that isn't minted by a government."
Better deals on refinery bars, and once the currencies collapse, it's doubtful ANYONE is going to have ANY faith in the "government."
get the riot gear ..
http://www.prisonplanet.com/dhs-puts-out-urgent-order-for-riot-gear.html
Anyone who wears a badge, works for an entity associated with "security" in this country are now all SWAT gestapo who don't know shit about, nor care about, the Constitution of this country.
Not only is there a financial collaspe coming but also a reckoning, a settling of accounts, between those of us who do know history and know legal orders from illegal ones, and the goons who are just that, goons. Fuck'm.
who the fuck are the "Federal Protective Service agents"
Alex Jones has published so much bullshit and false rumors that nobody should take anything he says seriously. If he had any credibility we would have long ago attacked Iran gone thru a nuclear holocaust and survivors would be under martial law with millions in prison camps. That is any of us who survived the intentional bird flu massacre of 2009. The guy is a complete asshole.
I think these assholes should be subject to lawsuit when they open their mouths and tell blatant market-moving (lies) statements that they know are without merit. Public company officials have to hold their tongues, why not these pricks??????????
It is the controlled media reporting it. If they had any clue it would have never made print
Financial Focus' Leydon says S&P could hit 1550 by election day.
He needed his former empoyer to get at least one recommendation correct....
Well, you know Mario's favorite metal song when he's alone in his office...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxrd_jZJxkg
"Scopalamine!"
Great documentary on Scopalamine here.
Everyone needs to know this drug exists and that it is capable of completely removing your free will. You will do anything you're told when on it including mass murdering innocent people.
Now that we know who Klink is, who's Hogan?
and who is Sgt Schultz?
But more importantly, who is Fraulein Helga/Hilda?
hardly, he is small fry compared to the Bernanke!
Great graphical, Armani eagle would have him supported for
a few thousand years or more Euros of useless fiat money...
I remind you that Drughi isn't "buying", he is "stealing", because ECB has no money, it conterfaits.
You can say the same about every single bank in the world.
Bundesbank, EURAUD....
Belief is a powerful thing. It can cause a person to behave irrationally to all others, but to him the others are irrational. It is only at the end, when it is too late to alter his beliefs, does he understand.
The market trades on the belief that at some point in the future a solution will be found to the unprecedented levels of debt, and with that solution even greater levels of prosperity await.
Somehow Amazon will find the profit they require to justify its valuation. When it does the current valuation will seem far too low. Better to send the stock even higher to match that future valuation, rather than focus on the current environment. All you need is to believe.
If it sounds like a fairy tale, well that is because it is.
Save the system!
The ancien regime needs more galley slaves to row TPTB to safety. The pay will be good. Of course you will have to be killed once the destination is reached
Are we sure Draghi and Hilsenrath don't have a bet going to see who can out do each other? If people can't see the absurdity of this market now, they never will.
I think I might know what is going on, you are going to need to find this and watch. It is pretty clear what is going on in Europe now .....
http://www.tv.com/shows/little-rascals/pay-as-you-exit-220413/
Unable to get the local kids to pay a penny to see the gang's performance of "Romeo and Juliet," Alfalfa gets them in by letting them pay as they exit if they like the show. As the show gets underway, Darla storms out, unable to tolerate Alfalfa's onion breath. After Spanky stalls off the crowd with his "old act," the play continues with Buckwheat in the role of Juliet.more
BOXED IN and DIMINISHING RETURNS!
All I got to say is;
Ta Dao Central Bankers!
Hopefully Reuters will counter with: "Draghi suggests no problem meeting next week."
Mom's coming home!
And now, the crop report....
Mortimar, we're finished.
Draghi forgot to pay off the rank and file EU politicians.
Once the payoffs have been accomplished we can then focus on bailouts.
The real winners : pimps and high class hookers working turf near major European capitals.
Termination pattern nearly complete. Godspeed everyone.
r u heading for pearly gates?
O/T ..but not really.
I would like to thank Mr. and Mrs. Durden and their son Tyler. The parents raised a truth teller and I appreciate his dedication. Good parents = good children.
The same to Mr. and Mrs. Santelli. Rick Santelli.... a first eschelon guy and a truth teller also.
Thank you both for the clarity in an increasingly insane world.
Bubba Weidman only plays when you can pay. What a Draghi it is when your old.
Monetization means the same for Germans as did war reparations in 1918.
Planned chaos has always been the motto of the Red Shield. Just sit back, grab some popcorn and watch the show. BTW, it always ends the same: millions get decimated by war and the percentage of serfs in the remaining population increases.
Right on, and the market only realised this at 7:30 pm on a friday...free money bitches! Fill yer boots.
Yet ES drops not.
lloyd: Hey Mario, I need a favor. Just to remind you we still have your trading records...
Mario: I was just thinking of you!
Lloyd: That's magnifico. I want you to make believe that the ECB is getting set to purchase bonds.
Mario: Accidenti! You don't have to deal with the mercurial Merkel. My steel cup may not hold when she gets back rested from vacation.
Lloyd: You know we have a bunch of long contracts on those bonds, and we're holding a bunch'o'swaps as well. We need to make some fast moolah for when the Piper comes around.
Mario: I get it - feed the ducks when they're quacking. But what else do I get from it?
Lloyd: We're still managing that account, right?
Mario: Benissimo! I was hoping you'd say that.
Lloyd: So it's a go?
Mario: Certamente! It's like the good old days!
JOHN TAYLOR: The Euro Crisis Has Only Just Begun
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/john-taylor-euro-crisis-2012-7#ixzz21qylnuSS
looool ! rip van winkle!
stop flogging a dead horse !
To illustrate just how twisted the economic dynamics in Europe are right now, Taylor used an interesting analogy:
This is going to lead to war.
Up, down, up, down. Place your bets, buy and sell. Rinse and repeat. The game is rigged. The question is, who has the strongest nerves to get in or out of the market and who has the fastest access to the market.
the guy who understands Eurozone best : Mitt Romney; he came, he saw and he gaffed so bad he made Boris guffaw his sides until they racked.
He is the iconistic american lost in anglo friendly -translation. A connecticut yankee lost in king arthur's court! Only he is a moron, pardon mormon.
Draghi was not speaking on behalf of the ECB so there is no mutiny at the ECB. Rather he was speaking on behalf of Goldman Sach's trading operations which uses various central bank mouthpieces to prevent its risk selling operations from suffering losses. One is able to ferret out the squid's trading model by looking at what inflection points ex-squids blow sunshine up the market's ass.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/27/us-eurozone-spain-idUSBRE86Q0JS20120727
LMAO! The EFSF doesn't have that type of money and the ESM is supposed to come on line onlynext year! :o)