Mutual Fund Outflows Surge As NYSE Short Interest Back To March 2009 Levels... Yet Stocks Refuse To Plunge. Why?

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Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:37 | 1742432 Joe Shmoe
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Isn't this one an age old contrarian indicator?



Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:42 | 1742451 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

These late day rallies are a JOKE and the market is a FARCE!

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:47 | 1742479 ratso
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Oh right, THE SKY IS FALLING not just today.  The end of the world has been briefly postphoned.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:50 | 1742504 Stoploss
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Yeah, the bear cavalry..


You're pretty much fucked..

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:55 | 1742538 clones2
clones2's picture

Just a market bounce back to the 10dma....  Not too surprised...

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:39 | 1742797 Pinto Currency
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Perhaps some investors have the view that buying Treasuries, when the Fed is printing money to maintain their price level, is more risky than buying stocks in companies.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 22:33 | 1743987 jeff montanye
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wish the charts above were longer term.  what was the short interest in late 2007 and 2008?  what was mutual fund cash in '65 and '72?  

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 02:12 | 1744418 Mauibrad
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Mutual Fund managers panicked selling on the horizon, bitchez?

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:45 | 1742462 r101958
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"Mutual Fund Outflows Surge As NYSE Short Interest Back To March 2009 Levels... Yet Stocks Refuse To Plunge. Why?"

How about because the TBTF's have too much of their free fed money invested in them? They stand to lose quite a bit if they crash. Who else do we really think is manipulating this market right now? Us?


Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:51 | 1742515 SheepDog-One
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Theyre just not ready for the crash quite yet, these record high shorts ARE the banks...theyll pull it soon enough.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:59 | 1742559 r101958
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Yes, I agree. It seems that they will do whatever they need to do to the market to keep oil at around 80 (WTI), gold at around 1600 and silver at about 30. I believe that oil under 80 is not profitable for the source of that market (WTI). All this in an effort to make any grumbling J6P stop grumbling. For those that have been studying and/or watching the markets for a while, TPTB hope that we give up on our hope that there will actually soon be some clarity and reality in the markets.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:29 | 1742736 r101958
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...forgot one thing.....and to keep treasuries right about where they are now.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:51 | 1742507 Johnny Lawrence
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I agree with Joe Shmoe.  I'm 100% certain the market will be crushed at some point, but these shorts need to be out before it does.  Look at every other point on that chart and you can literally play the opposite game with the amount of short interest and the performance of the market.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:23 | 1742690 Strider52
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Well, I think we can all agree that most everything is intentionally misreported. Employment, inflation, bank health, number of traders that are actually human, you name it.

It seems to me that it's entirely possible that the world economy already completely crashed big time, but TPTB can hide it nearly forever. Everything reported, or 'leaked', or rumored, is completely fake.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:57 | 1742863 Ned Zeppelin
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A fiat world where the rules are made and changed at a whim.  That is why I think the end game is the enforcement of the "fiat reality," and there will never be a clearing.  Folks "winning" by holding PMs will simply not be allowed. This game has no end.  The markets oscillate up and down, the oscillations calibrated for maximum "skim" each time the crowd gets fleeced.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:56 | 1742861 RickyBobby
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If she blows through 11.5K I'll have to take my shorts off. As sure as the sun rises in the east when I take 'em off she'll crater.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 17:09 | 1742905 CH1
CH1's picture

I think that's pretty much the plan.

They know when the plug gets pulled - you don't.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:57 | 1742548 firstdivision
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No wonder that short squeeze kicked into such high gear.  Someone bought 5k shares of FAS.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:08 | 1742620 riley martini
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5 for 1 reverse split announced for fas today. Would you want to buy it?

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:02 | 1742583 pupton
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From the chart it appears that short interest spikes at the beginning of big moves to the upside...but what the heck do I know.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:53 | 1742841 Bartanist
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Lol ... It is commonly known that massive selling causes prices to go up... The converse is also true.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:30 | 1742742 AbelCatalyst
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Yes, contrarian indicator...  However, you have to remember the Baby Boomers are getting closer and closer to retirement and their appetite for risk is quickly diminishing.  These wild swings are making them shart their pants!!  

Their need to conserve $ will quickly outweigh their desire to have a high-end retirmenent.  Once the scale is tipped, it will be like flicking a light switch - They'll say, "if I don't pull out right now I may NEVER retire."  Then you'll see a massive stampede for the exits - first ones out can retire with dignity, last ones out will live in low-end trailer parks!  Don't underestimate the fear of a curtailed lifestyle!! 

They're just beginning to pull out - they're looking around the room to see where the exits are (and if others are moving toward the exits).  Can you hear the light switches clicking on all accross the US?  Can you feel the panic beginning to build?  Seriously, this is a BIG deal, especially in light of the boomers just losing all that RE equity...  The reason they are staying in the stock market is a deep-seated hope that they will make 20% per year again - aint' gonna happen...      

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:56 | 1742860 Bartanist
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Dignity? Is that like pride? Pride is not a virtue.

Oh, and maybe, tornado magnets aside, a low-end trailer park is a better place to find spirituality than in Naples, FL or Nice, France.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 17:13 | 1742907 Pinto Currency
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Do you remember Ronald Reagan's old saying that the most terrifying words to any business owner are "I am from the government and I am here to help."


If I was a long term bond holder, I'd be terrified of the words "I am Ben.  I am from the Fed.  I am here to help your bonds.  I am going to print, print, print and buy, buy, buy those bonds to help you."


It might even make me buy P&G, J&J, ABX, and ultimately SWHC.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:38 | 1742436 Robslob
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Wed, 10/05/2011 - 19:29 | 1743361 TheFourthStooge-ing
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Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:39 | 1742438 jayman21
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Hey Tyler - Any idea on average leverage ratio for the MF?  Would be interesting to see how many redemptions turned into short-term loans to cover the outflow vs. a true sale of assets to cover the outflow?

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:39 | 1742439 TradingJoe
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We are going momo again! Hehehehe me shorting like a BEAR! ::::))))))

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:40 | 1742442 adr
adr's picture

The market has been trying to flush for weeks but there is this damn giant log stuck in the toilet with a stupid beard, a big nose, and this stupid grin expressing this flush me if you dare look.

Should have bought a Kohler.


... meanwhile looks like 11k+ is a real posibility at the close, unfuckinreal

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:45 | 1742466 CClarity
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Toto, we're stuck in the Wizard of Kansas with magical thinking believing that debt will just go poof.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:45 | 1742471 TheFourthStooge-ing
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The crapper is clogged with single-ply linen paper.

The toilet went crazy yesterday afternoon.

The plumber, he said, "never flush a tampoon."

This great information cost me half a week's pay,

and the toilet blew up later on the next daaaay-ay-ay-aaaay.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:55 | 1742541 DosZap
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NEVER put a Paper hand Towel in one either..............same issue.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:00 | 1742569 SheepDog-One
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Shitters full!

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:40 | 1742445 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

This just shows when it DOES really come unhinged one of these overnites, there will be no stopping it and total devastation. Which is of course what they planned for all along.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:51 | 1742513 Harbourcity
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The market is a horny 16 year-end trying to get into his girlfriends pants, sure she's fighting pretty good but with or without her giving in, he's blowing his load.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:07 | 1742610 pupton
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Ummm, is that called rape?  Or is he going home to polish the salami?

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:02 | 1742446 Biggvs
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So just following the historical logic here... if short interest is at March 2009 levels, then the selloff has already occurred and we should expect a 100% rally in the S&P, no?  :P

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:07 | 1742615 pupton
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That's what you could infer from the chart, yeah...

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:41 | 1742449 rambler6421
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It ain't plunging cuz of the Plunge Protection Team.........Duh.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:45 | 1742467 fonestar
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"We've got a leak in these pipes!  Quick, call the plungers!"

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:45 | 1742472 Comay Mierda
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PPT 3:30pm ramp up in effect again


new strategy: buy at 3:30pm sell at 3:59pm

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 02:41 | 1744440 o2sd
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Only if it's blood in the morning. Green in the morning means PPT day off. Blood in the morning, PPT arrives on cue at 3:30 with new rumour of a plan to get together to plan a bailout of Europe.


Green in the morning, market is yawning.

Blood in the morning, PPT warning.


Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:44 | 1742454 doomz78
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QE4, QE5, QE6, QE7, QE8, QE9, QE10,  In the form of daily market capital injections into the stock market via JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs.  And not forgetting the help of the CME.  It's a market in perfect balance if fraud and market manipulation are your fetish.  Ben Bernanke and the boys know that Quantitative Easing is not palitable in this political and economical environment.  This is just a theory of mine but having followed the market for over 10 years.  It looks rigged. 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:43 | 1742455 fonestar
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S&P500, last bastion of a failed system?  Defend at all costs! 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:44 | 1742457 SheepDog-One
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'One day, the selling has to commence' one to sell to....1 man market conundrum.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:44 | 1742458 alien-IQ
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The /ES is up about 70 points since yesterdays 3:30pm rumor, despite the fact that it has been proven to have been purely meaningless bullshit.

You gotta admit...this shit is hilarious.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:44 | 1742461 Belarus
Belarus's picture

I have said it many times here before but i'll say it again: with this kind of short interest, there is no way the market will crash. Record short interest is the ultimate contrary indicator. 

They will ramp this market and fuck every short out there. Only then will stocks be able to crash. until then boys...

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 15:50 | 1742497 Racer
Racer's picture

Yep, if the funds refuse to build up cash in the hope they can be saved by the ChairSatan, then short squeeze it is... but then when the evil one does nothing there will be no shorts to soften the waterfall drop, Oct 1987 and the Great Crash will be like minor blips, they will of course try to slow it with circuit breakers but that will only cause more panic like the delays with the tickers during the Great Crash.

The only buyers are the shorters... so no buyers/shorters.... watch out below

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 16:26 | 1742463 Mohan
Mohan's picture

This is about time CNBS parades some analyst who calls for a new bull market based on short interest only!

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