Name The Bubble

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As the title suggests, please name the latest bubble:

If you said student loans, you were correct. What is curious is that while virtually everyone has known about the student loan bubble in recent quarters, it is only for the past 3 that the Fed has actually started to disclose this data in its consumer loan excel spreadsheet (link - page 3). For historical data prior to 2011 we had to pull Bloomberg data (TDBCSTUD Index) going back to 1999. Perhaps the recent astronomical jump is why the Fed has been keeping a tight lip on this data... 

And for those to whom this is news, here are some thoughts on the matter from before.

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Mon, 02/27/2012 - 14:53 | 2201112 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Scheisse!

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 14:55 | 2201117 French Frog
French Frog's picture

Hopium

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 14:57 | 2201130 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

But you MUST be part of the bubble.
A PhD will INSTANTLY get you a job as CEO of something!
A Ferrari in the garage. A supermodel trophy wife. A 16 room McMansion. Your name in the Hall of Fame.
Keep your face buried in them books slaves!
Don't raise your heads! We don't want you to see the world around you burning!

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:02 | 2201163 DogSlime
DogSlime's picture

Nothing especially wrong with books.

Books can encourage people to think.

Better than sitting in front of wall-to-wall "reality" TV/MSM propaganda broadcasts, surely?

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:04 | 2201173 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Not when those books are part of the indoctrination of the police state controlled education racket.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:17 | 2201227 redpill
redpill's picture

OT: Anon says they are going after GS on Twitter...

 

Goldman Sachs: Expect us. Today. via  

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:18 | 2201246 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

 

Here we go again. Another libertarian rant about a noble virtue like education. It is my personal theory that redneck libertarians are hostile toward education because educated and enlightened liberals almost always reject their crazy ideas about free market economics. The more educated people are, the more they will understand the need for higher taxes, tighter regulations and more government oversight of greedy profiteers. THIS is what libertarians are terrified of. 

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:20 | 2201259 fuu
fuu's picture

You're starting to sound like Max Fischer Rex Culus.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:37 | 2201334 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Max Fischer is a legitimate douche... MDB is more like 'Morgana the kissing bandit'

http://mcgarnagle.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/morganna-the-kissing-bandit.jpg

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:52 | 2201385 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Are we sure that The Bernank isn't really a Phoenix?

Education Connection Commercial Jingle - YouTube

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 16:13 | 2201448 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

Its the U.S. welfare usage chart

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 16:56 | 2201583 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

wealth effect, bitches.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 18:31 | 2201956 fourchan
fourchan's picture

the hubba bubble, the mother of all bubbles.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 19:27 | 2202068 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Good thing this is not tampering the purchasing power of the avg college grad to buy houses or anything else for that matter.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 19:52 | 2202123 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Is is Silver?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 05:58 | 2203085 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

We're going to have a lot of very brainy people...

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 17:53 | 2201842 CClarity
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Aren't bubbles something many believe in at the time and want to be part of?  Education and student loans could be it . . . but how about social media?

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 22:44 | 2202481 economics1996
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Education is propaganda supporting the government class and elites.  Ninety percent of the students are too stupid to figure it out.  A few question but most are just hoping to be in the elite oppressor classes that have good vacations, light work, and big paychecks.

http://usa-wethepeople.com/2011/07/usa-university-economic-propaganda-exposed/

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 18:12 | 2201905 buckethead
buckethead's picture

Currency bubble.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:21 | 2201260 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

haha, this is one of your better onces.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:26 | 2201284 Michael
Michael's picture

I'm OK with forgiving all student loan debt in bankruptcy and not issuing anymore. Education in the USA sucks anyway.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:28 | 2201294 clones2
clones2's picture

Fairly misleading when you are using data from different sources in the same chart...

Post and Pre 2011....  That would explain the jump in debt... ie... Bloomberg was using incorrect data...  Perhaps there is no bubble...

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:37 | 2201333 gtb
gtb's picture

I paid back my loans.  I'd be pissed if others' loans were forgiven.

How many different ways do you want to make responsible people suckers?  

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:43 | 2201359 Crumbles
Crumbles's picture

Must be 50 ways to make a sucker ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTiyLuZOs1A

Apologies, Paul.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 16:47 | 2201564 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Debts that can't be paid won't, so be prepared to be pissed.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 17:02 | 2201605 Irene
Irene's picture

gtb, if you've already paid back your student loans they were probably pretty small and probably from decade(s) ago.  Today's kids owe something else altogether, think $100k-ish.  Not at all comparable.  Consider yourself lucky that you were in school when education was still reasonably priced.  Rather than getting pissed at these kids, be pissed at the adults who made this mess.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 17:22 | 2201688 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Here, here. Jubilee from the fractional reserve counterfeiting debt.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 19:54 | 2202130 Oleander
Oleander's picture

If you do not make the payments the gov't will just take your tax refund. Why bother with those monthly coupons when the work is done for you every year by the gov't.  Sure my loans were less but I also chose to attend a cheaper, lesser known State College.  I have friends who went to Harvard and they are no better off than I.  Parents should not be encouraging thier children to get into the Ivy Leagues just so they can brag about Jonny going to MIT. 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 20:53 | 2202266 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

What the gubmint is doing, is trying to force those with college loans to "volunteer" for the Army to get the Loan Repayment Program.

I did it, took 3 years, didn't get a W-2 for the first year and hit with back-taxes (on the repayment, considered income) while I was in Bosnia.

I'm just glad I got out before being sent to a depleted uranium-soaked country (they tried), or go for the Officer route (and able to be recalled until you die)....

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 20:18 | 2202197 laomei
laomei's picture

If you actually paid them back in full, you are a sucker and honestly deserve what you get.  Take that education and use it as a golden ticket out of the country and never look back.  Eventually, one day, many years later, you might get a phone call from some 8th-string collector working for SLM who wants to make a deal.  That $80k you borrowed is now $400k on paper... but you are gonna make them settle it all for $10k, and they'll take it, because you make it clear that's all they will ever get and it's now or never, final offer.  They can't garnish, there are no tax refunds to seize, and they have zero jurisdiction of any kind in the country you live in now.  Then you go back to whatever you were doing and laugh about it.

Just be sure to get all the paperwork backing up the settlement and be sure to force them to have a board member sign off on it with a real, notarized signature... make that shit iron-clad.  You also want the negative tradelines deleted.  Their choice, $10k now, or nothing ever because you literally do not have to care

In the meantime, be sure to let the IRS know how poor and insolvent you are, so that $390k "profit" incurs no taxes.

 

And that's how you get a decent college degree for $10k.... in fact that's just about the only way anymore.  

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 17:45 | 2201792 ChrisFromMorningside
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They can't be paid back. The numbers just aren't there. How can someone with no income and very weak future job prospects pay back a six-figure debt? That's the situation a lot of graduates find themselves in. It's just not going to happen. Realistically, the question is whether we're going to try and paper over this with more financial shenanigans and allow it to be a drain on an entire generation, with a bunch of wealth going into a financial black hole of bad debts, or whether we will pull an Iceland and liquidate the debt and allow everyone to move on.

I'm much more inclined to let students off the hook than I am individuals who purchased outrageous McMansions that they could never afford. Students were, on the whole, misled by the adult generation that was in charge of "guiding" them. However misguided, their intentions were far more noble than those who just wanted to splurge and buy up "goodies" that they couldn't afford. We need to radically reform education and the way we finance education but I don't think we should sacrifice an entire generation of young people to perpetual debt slavery just so that corrupt college institutions and banks can continue to reap their profits.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 18:21 | 2201918 Yardstick of Ci...
Yardstick of Civilization's picture

Amen. They just can't be paid back. It's not mathematically possible.

More inclined to let students off, because they are being "sold" hope for a decent furture. Who doens't want that? Forget the people with McMansions and forget Goldman Sachs--the biggest recipients of bailout money.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 19:53 | 2202126 Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

Not buying the misled / everyone a victim mantra (albeit it is very in vogue), but propose new rule:  No student loans to any student without parent guarantee for anyone under 21.  That might slow down student loan growth a little.   

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 20:00 | 2202143 trav7777
trav7777's picture

uh no.  Far more than half of the "students" have no fucking business being there.  They are wasting money to have effectively an extended party.

They graduate with degrees in "African American Studies" so they can tell us how idiots like Jose Hustle go on Youtube to brag about how they "been had polo" and that this is a "feature" of "African American English" and part of the oral tradition of black people making utter idiots out of themselves.  Well, they don't characterize it like that, they praise this materialism and braggodocio instead of calling it the buffoonery that it is.  And all because they "studied" for four years how awesome black people like themselves really are.

They are wastefully employing tons of useless idiots to teach them useless shit.  They really OUGHT to be taking out loans to pay for some smart kid's engineering education as that latter kid is the only one of them that will ever be even vaguely productive.

The kids who studied this shit are stupid.  They should pay.  Kids who studied STEM should get welfare.  For a fucking change, let's let the people who CREATE EVERYTHING have some rewards instead of the goddamned leeches.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 21:40 | 2202341 ChrisFromMorningside
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For many years, getting a useless liberal arts degree was pretty profitable and was seen as "productive" by society as large. Throughout much of the 90s and definitely from 2000-2008 or so, you could graduate from any relatively decent liberal arts college with a bullshit B.A. and get a $60,000 a year job somewhere (banks, non-profits, bullshit "startups," real estate, etc). Even more if you go to an Ivy. It was all fueled by central banker funny money but society at large not only condoned it but relished in it. Get a B.A. in "Business" or "Finance," go to Wall Street, make a $200,000 bonus your first year for doing something you don't even really understand ... that was the goal for millions of students due to an entire lifetime of indoctrination at school and from parents. I don't think young people should be held down for decades because they were unable to challenge the hegemonic worldview of their society at age 17. What does society gain by having this generation throw away a significant % of its income into Sallie Mae (the federal government) and a bunch of zombie banks?

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 18:44 | 2201859 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

me too but twenty years later and a more realistic understanding of the system, student loans allow every person in the education food chain to demand more salary and bennies.  tenured profesors, can't fire them and they won't stop spewing their statist bullshit

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 20:01 | 2202146 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the payrolls of public universities are often publicly available.  Random campus cops make 150k.  Professors of some such shit get well over 200 in the Illinois system.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 17:41 | 2201770 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

'Education"...

Eh JEW cation... (there ~ fixed it)...

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 18:31 | 2201955 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

It isn't education........ It's schooling!

Come get schooled..zero down , easy payments

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 19:30 | 2202073 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Of course you are because you are too ignorant to know the origination where doctors and lawyers used to summarily file for bankruptcy upon graduation.

You know, the usual culprits those evil elitist zionistas.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 21:50 | 2202373 ChrisFromMorningside
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Law Schools often subsidize other graduate departments. A law school staff, books and facilities do not cost $55,000 per student, especially when you consider that the professors are often overpaid.

The Medical School system is heavily subsidized by Medicare and state governments.

The entire educational financial structure is deeply flawed and liable to fall apart if the U.S. actually undertakes any significant budget cutting or if the feds stop subsizing tuition. The smart schools will retool, the not-smart ones will fail (I foresee hundreds of smaller, regional colleges closing across the U.S.)

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:23 | 2201272 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Translation:  Education, Bitches!

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:23 | 2201273 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Lighten up Francis

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:23 | 2201274 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Yeah, those redneck ones are really embarrassing to us Green neck.  The orange are ok too but the yellow necks are the worst.  Of course I am a silver neck libertarian and I will still be standing long after reality has set in on that thinking.

You should be terrified...someday I'm going to buy you to amuse me.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:29 | 2201299 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

....different strokes for different folks, and so on and so on and dooby dooby dodah....(Sly & the Family Stone).

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 19:11 | 2202022 Encroaching Darkness
Encroaching Darkness's picture

Thing is, they all want to take you higher - until they fall off the cliff. Sort of like Sly Stone did, afterwards, living in a car somewhere in  CA - a poor result for a great artist.

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:27 | 2201292 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

educated and enlightened liberals

 

Contradiction in terms.  Nice start to the week, tho', MDB.  I'll give it what Mr. Kotter gave Vinny Barbarino: an F-Plus.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:31 | 2201306 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Because you support the inflationary monetary policies of the various central banks, I hereby rename you:

 

TrillionDollarBonus_

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:57 | 2201399 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

And since the borrowers will be fully tapped out, and the lenders will plead ignorance, and control the regulators and administration any way, is there any doubt who will once again be forced to pay for this upcoming bail out? This is something that does not require a college degree to figure out.

THIS

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 18:38 | 2201972 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

I'll take taxpayers for 24 trillion , Alex.

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