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NAR Continues Tradition Of Making Mockery Of Itself, Revises December Home Sales From +5% to -0.5%

Tyler Durden's picture





 

And here is yet another reason why we will permanently ignore the pathologically lying real estate syndicate known as the NAR (link): December data was just revised from +5% to -0.5% (from 4.61 million to 4.38 million). Since December market expectations were for a +5.2% print, imagine the sheer horror the algos would have been faced with had the real number been reported on time. Needless to say, if this number had been unrevised, the January +4.3% increase would have been a decline. This way the aglos focused only on the immediate moment get two months of beats in a row. Huzzah. Anyone who trades anything based on this borderline criminal self-reporting enterprise needs to have their head checked. In other news, when will the LIBOR investigation finally target the NAR?

And for feces and giggles, here is the one, the only, NAR mastermind Larry Yun.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said these are early signs of what may be a sustained recovery. “The pattern of home sales in recent months demonstrates a market in recovery,” he said. “Record low mortgage interest rates, job growth and bargain home prices are giving more consumers the confidence they need to enter the market.”

 

NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said more buyers are expected to take advantage of market conditions this year. “The American dream of homeownership is alive and well. We have a large pent-up demand, and household formation is likely to return to normal as the job market steadily improves,” he said. “More buyers coming into the market mean additional benefits for the overall economy. When people buy homes, they stimulate a lot of related goods and services.”

Warning: the man in the above video may be a paid actor.

Golf clap Larry for this latest piece of paid propaganda. However if you were to actually stand back and have an objective thought for once in your life you would know that record low mortgage interest rates are doing absolutely nothing for consumer confidence, as shown here.

 


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Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

It is a National Tradition to revise previous number downward.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment sunnydays
sunnydays's picture

They don't care about the revision now, because the market already reacted in a positive way to the fake numbers.  Everyone will ignore the real numbers, after the fact.  They will keep doing this as it works for the market.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

They all do it, and anyone caught NOT contributing to this outright fraud will be fired on the spot.

It's all about goosing the markets. Nothing else matters.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

"It's all about goosing the markets.  Nothing else matters."

Tru dat.  But it's not just NAR ...

It is my sincere wish that during my lifetime the Federal Reserve will just come clean and admit in public that they really just have a single mandate -- to goose the stock market as needed.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Qa
Qa's picture

Like anything else matters besides perpetual QE & LTRO...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

5.5% is a helluva miss

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

They don't care about the revision now, because the market already reacted in a positive way to the fake numbers.

 

You've just quoted, verbatim, Principle #1 of the Complete Ponzi Manual.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

I think we need the folks over at Nanex to do some analysis of quote stuffing at the NAR.

Seriously, these serial liars continue to deceive people in the midst of making huge financial decisions...the biggest most will make in their lifetime.  

Shut this F'n operation down!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

+1

Buying a house is like signing your life away, unless you are planning on having a triplex and renting, or you are buying the plot for its arable land.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Dumpster Fire
Dumpster Fire's picture

"Plot" lends itself to one other interpretation.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

But LH... It's an opportunity to own the mortgage debt... not the house...

Where can you possibly go wrong???

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 14:00 | Link to Comment AndTheRest
AndTheRest's picture

Anyone stupid enough to still believe they can maintain a stable income for 30 years deserves to be foreclosed on and lose their 10 years of equity.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:02 | Link to Comment Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

Of course.  The revisions are already priced in.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

Those Assholes cook their numbers every time....

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Wow, if this clown Yun doesn't get fired from the NRA, our 2nd amendment rights are going to be history.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:27 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Lawrence Yun is not worried...

He is eminently qualified for an executive position at the B(L)S...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said these are early signs of what may be a sustained recovery. 'The pattern of home sales in recent months demonstrates a market in recovery,' ”

What goes up must come down
spinning wheel got to go round
Talking about your troubles it's a crying sin
Ride a painted pony
Let the spinning wheel spin

http://man.century21firstre.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Dr...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

Yun says that all the time.

In fact, they could replace him with one of those automatic newswriting robots very easily.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:41 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Should take the bots 24-36 hours to figure it out.  By then, we will have a close above Dow 13,000 /sarc

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

.

 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Nobody could have seen it coming....nobody!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Golf clap

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment chipshot
chipshot's picture

one handed clap

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Matters not. The Holiday bump was delivered on and everyone got their bonus.

BLMBRG: 'Existing Home Sales Rise 4.3%'

Now, let that settle in with the bots and PRESTO! You've got one hell of a deluded public.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Ditto on CNN Money site. Everyone is singing from the same propoganda hymnal.

Economy: Existing-home sales rose 4.3% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Economists were expecting a sales rate of 4.5 million, according to consensus estimates from Briefing.com.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/22/markets/stocks/index.htm?iid=mkt_SF_news

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 13:11 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Ditto on CNBS alerts. 

I get them for the comedic value, as it's always a 180 from what I see here.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Doesn't matter one bit what is revised after the fact. Confidence, aka confidence building, is a JIT (just-in-time) activity. What have you done for my confidence lately buddy? Everything else is just old news.

I don't give a rats ass what you do to last months numbers. Give me today's buzz NOW...........

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Riddle me this, how is it that the "headline scanning algos" don't read this news?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Selective computer algo blindness?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 13:16 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Why waste that valuable time sorting through all of the worthless reality, when you can "cut to the chase" by focusing on perception? Even tails that wag the dogs require efficient utilization of resources. Especially as their half-life approaches zero.

As Jim Sinclair says, it's all MOPE (Management Of Perception Economics).

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Revised from +5% to -5% ? How broken is the initial estimating mechanism ?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Not broken at all bro. If it is a statistic it can be manipulated to say whatever you want it to say.

It ain't broke if that's what you want. In fact, the PONZI would say it's working just fine.......thank you very much.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:40 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

I can say with 78.5% certainty that you are indeed correct!

pods

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:40 | Link to Comment Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

It's definitely a feature, not a bug.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment blu
blu's picture

Listen pal, it is the responsibility of every patriotic American to accept -- no, to demand -- good news and only good news all the time 24x7. We are at war, not with an enemy we can see, but with the invisible enemy called fear. Yes fear. Fear will erode our will to struggle, fear will weaken our precious bodily fluids! Americans cannot be herded like cattle out of fear! We can be herd like cattle in other ways, Hell that's as American as the Super Bowl, but not by Communistic unGodly fear!

So bring on the good news! Go ahead, revise it later! We can take it! We dream big and lie even bigger because we are Americans!

Oh and everyone please support my bid for the GOP nomination. Get a destroyer into the White House! Imma set fire to those lying mutherfuckers boo-yah!

Love, the Archangel Fortran

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:00 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I miss Fortran the Destroyer. :)

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:39 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

"Anyone who trades anything based on this borderline criminalself-reporting enterprise needs to have their head checked."

With all deference I think it is about Fortran. Anyone who's programmed computers knows how they can become predictable and you can infer much about the program by examining the output. We have a programmed market right now with the NAR being one of the spoonfed inputs. It should be possible to analyze the output and develop ways to front run the algos, at least by a better mind than mine. During the air war against Serbia the US lost a stealth fighter because the computerized flight programs reused waypoints, preset flight destinations, to fly the planes to their targats. The Serbians learned that if you hear the jet pass over point A at a certain time then it will pass over point B so many seconds later. It was then a simple task to put up massed antiaircraft fire at the right time and the unseen aircraft came down.

Someone who discovers the analogous quirk in the algo-driven ponzi will get rich. If he/she publishes it the ponzi will have to be reprogrammed.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:31 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"Listen pal, it is the responsibility of every patriotic American to accept -- no, to demand -- good news and only good news all the time 24x7..."

Your president is...

  1. A competent leader...
  2. Who makes all the decisions...
  3. Writes his own speeches...
  4. Loads them into the Teleprompter...
  5. Is a Peaceful Nobel Laureate...
  6. Who saved the economy...
  7. Brought the rule of law back to Amerika and the markets...
  8. And is the puppet of no finance capital elites...

How's that working out for you?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment PeaceLover
PeaceLover's picture

You know that much reverse truth is going to get us all on a list and the site.. banned.. some one told me the java code hosted on the server belongs to MS or someone.. in Hollywood..so they can shut this web-server down at will. :-( 

They have a judge somewhere that doesn't even have a smart phone ready to shut down the internet.
They tested it with Wiki Leaks...

So they are going to shut down ZH,  Way to much truth sneaking out.

 

I mean for God Sake.. if you don't give your money to the bank's (fee's and interest) you should at least give it to the government.

and if you don't do that you more than likely are one of the .00097% and how come your so smart and don't pay taxes or pay interest?

PL

 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

It is the Greek GDP model.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

...which incidentally is the same as Obama's job creation model.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

That's racist! It's Bush's fault and you know it.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment slyhill
slyhill's picture

So solly. Decimal prace ony accidentry move one, not two.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:13 | Link to Comment Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

Working as intended.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

People will always say what's in their best interest, NAR included.

How many men tell their wives or girlfriends the truth when they ask, "does this make me look fat?"

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

If you really want to avoid those types of land mines just do this the next time they ask if this makes them look fat:

(with crazy wild eyes)  "OH YES, I love it!"

Bonus credit if you can work in either "apple bottom" or "badonkadonk."

You will not be asked for an opinion again on the matter.

pods

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

That's a binary outcome play. You're either golden or you're nursing a fat lip.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:45 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Human nature, true, but usually you only lie when you know you can get away with it. These guys, all of them, economists, banksters, politicians and the MSM pimps, look you right in the eye and lie to you and you know they're lying, and they know you know, and they tell it anyway, hoping you'll say to yourself, "he wouldn't lie if he knew I knew he was lying, so maybe there's some truth to it," and it leaves that little bit of doubt in your mind. But, no, they're lying and we know it and they're still getting away with it. Or maybe I'm just confused.

 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:55 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

"Does this dress make me look fat?"

"No, your face does".

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

That's the "I'm ready to be single again" play. Warning: Could be hazardous to your health.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Wait, aren't new home purchase move inversely with itnerest rates??  That's what they taught us!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Golf clap, indeed.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

and how much did the release of this false number pop the S&P in December?

it probably helped support the almost linear climb of the indices we observed since beginning of December

manipulators got the job done, again, perfect smokescreens

and nobody cares about revisions anymore, the "better than expected" January number will appear to be equally meaningless

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:01 | Link to Comment AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

The NAR's press release for December existing home sales came out Jan. 20, 2012 at 11:30am. Prior to the release, the S&P was was down about 4 points for the day. Immediately after the release, the S&P moved about 4 points higher until 1:30pm. There was a most definite pop after the release.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Chuck Yeager
Chuck Yeager's picture

Lawrence Yun is in the same league as the ex Iraqi information minister.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Baghdad Bob! 'Tanks? What tanks? No tanks here!'

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Dude, I'd all but forgotten about Baghdad Bob. Thanks for the trip down memory lane. Does this mean I can call Bernanke....Baghdad Ben?

Please....may I?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf

Who can forget this YouTube gem by Dear Bob.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s27Oq5ot0ZI

Then there is Baghdad Ben with "We are not printing money".

http://dailybail.com/home/bernanke-on-60-minutes-were-not-printing-money.html

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:40 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

BBC

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

My old friend Baghdad Bob seems to have landed on his feet at Augusta National. :>)

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

CD is getting giddy reminiscing about the good ole days...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That war is a tragedy but it was fun to watch his press conferences.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Theres NEVER been a better time to buy a house than RIGHT NOW! Contact your local NAR realtor today!'

Brought to you by the NAR Union scam artists.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:14 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Hurry! Act NOW while supplies last! Before you are priced out of the market!

At least with the NAR you never have to write any new material...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment Gomie
Gomie's picture

Of course the headline running says, "Sales of existing homes up 4.3% in January since they were revised down, that makes for a nice gain. Well spun indeed.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

all data released from all sources works like that, so it is not as if that is some peculiarity of the NAR.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment Gomie
Gomie's picture

I suppose it's worked beautifully for UE Claims for weeks on end, so hey, why not use it with every data point.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

obviously the data arent up to much if they can be revised so sharply, but i what would be the point of "lying",  when they release the "real" numbers the next month?

i dont see how the NAR would be advantaged by it.

 

given the huge market reaction (not), i am guessing that the "algos" dont actually trade off this anyway.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment candyman
candyman's picture

why not just defer one month and print the revised rate, that would fix the problem

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"i dont see how the NAR would be advantaged by it."

How can a sales organization not gain advantage for its members by constant propaganda to the upside in an attempt to create demand and market frenzy...

Me and Edward Bernays will get back to you on that one...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:39 | Link to Comment hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

I suggest a little bit of study on psychology, sales, and perception.  The NAR is primarily a lobbying group representing salespeople who depend on people who think they're acting on their own best interest, but are actually enriching the real estate industry.  Reporting the bogus and inflated numbers is an attempt to create urgency and convince people to make an emotional decision rather than a logical one.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

 

Here is the FoxBusiness headline summary.   Look at the headline then read the first sentences carefully.  

 

 

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise More Than Expected in January

 

Existing home sales rose 4.3% in January to an annual rate of 4.57 million units, the highest rate since May 2010. Economists had been expecting a 1.9% increase to an annual rate of 4.65 million units. However, sales in December were revised significantly lower to a rate of 4.38 million units from 4.61 million.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

We don't "revise," we defer revelation of the truth.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

VooDoo Real estate.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Number 156
Number 156's picture

The numbers from the NAR are like dog crap.

They are soft and pliable when they first come out, then some time later they shrink and harden.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:07 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Sir, your statement offends dog crap...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Is there any honest institution left in this fucking country?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

The Ministry of Truth says war with East Asia is imminent. They've always been right (sooner or later).

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 14:05 | Link to Comment shutdown
shutdown's picture

War will bring peace when sex brings virginity. 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Are Million Dollar Bonus and Larry Yun ever in the same room at the same time?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

stock market already pumped, who cares.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Nar has been forecasting a rebound in housing longer than Cramer.

Since 2006....housing has been rebounding.

Of course these genuises haven't taken into effect that ball and chain effect that student loans have on new houshold formation, this issue of $3-4 a gallon gas (something that has only been occuring since 2008), the stagnation and outright deflation in wages for the bottom 70%, and the unquantifiable effect of lasting PTSD from 2008.

Hey but #btfd and get a half warrant for a new house.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

yes but, you left out January's great sales number!  Look (from finance.yahoo.com):

 

Existing Home Sales at 18 Month High, Supply Falls

Reuters

U.S. home resales surged in January to a 1-1/2 year high and the supply of properties on the market was the lowest in almost seven years, pointing to a nascent housing recovery...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:31 | Link to Comment FromGaltsGulch
FromGaltsGulch's picture

As much as we rip CNBS's Steve Liesman , Bloombergs resident genuis Mike Mcgee outdid himself this morning in regards to this housing data..He was gushing how much of a beat this number was..why it was up 4.3% ..a number no one was expecting..of course he made very little mention that it was dus to the huge downward revision from Dec.I'm very thankful; for sites like Zerohedge

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:27 | Link to Comment Taterboy
Taterboy's picture

This means McGee wins this month's trip to Chicago's Man's Country with the Dear Leader.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

CONfidence, BiTCHeZ!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

furthermore, just having a look at the last 70 months of data, there have been exactly (i kid you not) 35 upward revisions, and 35 downward revsions.

there goes your stupid bullshit theories.

honestly, i have never read so many references to 'sheep', nor found so many, as on this forum.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:55 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

You wouldnt mind sharing your quote unquote data now would you? Because here is ours, straight from the NAR, and it shows 4 straight years of downward revisions.

Frankly we agree: why refer to sheep as sheep, when idiots is far more appropriate.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

But Tyler........they were only off by a four year average of -14%. Good enough for government work where I come from.

/sarc

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:14 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Funny, off by 14% is about how off Bernanke is with inflation and unemployment numbers.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:26 | Link to Comment Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

 

 

Michael Olenick: 9.8 Million Shadow Inventory Says Housing Market is a Long Way From the Bottom

Wednesday, January 11, 2012 Michael Olenick: 9.8 Million Shadow Inventory Says Housing Market is a Long Way From the Bottom

 

 

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/01/michael-olenick-10-million-shadow...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

All of your article are belong to us!

-Tyler

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment Qa
Qa's picture

Any idea if pocket listing have increased? These would hidden from inventory numbers as well.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 13:59 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

@TD

I think you can replace that red dot with a red balloon.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 17:45 | Link to Comment JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

Startling to see the massive inventory in color. I woner what the cost is to insure vacant houses. Has to be high due to vandalism.

 

Are banks really paying the insurance on these literally millions of houses?

Who would want that liability? High risk imo.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:59 | Link to Comment Qa
Qa's picture

Is the mean of the errors zero? Answer: NO.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Is that you Lawrence??

Getting a little bitchy, aren't we?

No wait... It's Wanker Timmay Jeethner's real estate agent that can't sell the Larchmont NY house...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:09 | Link to Comment AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Hey Alex,

Did you enjoy working for Jon Corzine as a futures night dealer at MF Global in Australia for 8 years? Quite an experience, huh? Oh well, G'day Mate!!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment Qa
Qa's picture

The NRA hires enough statisticians to build stable forecasting models that produce random (Gaussian) errors. This is clearly something else besides faulty models or data.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment dataanalytics
dataanalytics's picture

Alexander, you are seriously trying to undermine Tyler's research?

You either trolling or really ignorant of facts and truth. I'm not sure which one it is. This site provides the most factual evidence and research of all financial and economic news sites or publications/outlets I have seen anywhere in the media period. But if you want to entertain us...keep on putting your flat foot in your big mouth!

 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:52 | Link to Comment dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

so you have the ability to move 35 times one steps forward and 35 times two step backwards and still end up in the same place?

teach me!!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

why nobody ever questions the ones that manufacture those numbers afterwards - what data did they miss, to have been off that much on their final released number??

And why the MSM journalists are always giving speech-time on TV to people that report these "wow better than expected numbers", but when it comes to explaining why there is a huge revision, they put their heads in the sand or move on to sports news?

MSM should be held accountable also, if they are only broadcasting information that later on turns to be completely false and not ask any questions whatsoever - makes one think they have an interest somehow in propagating a false picture of reality... Independent journalism?

Same with unemployment, GDP, PMI numbers...

"Bloomberg Bests", my ass

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:31 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

Sure, how could it be anything but Independent Journalism?

http://www.nationofchange.org/illusion-choice-1329843747

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

That's a rather large miss for December. Hmm. Now we are supposed to believe the January number is a beat. Please. You can have no confidence in these numbers from the propaganda we have coming out of this administration. Carry on.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

"...when will the LIBOR investigation finally target the NAR? "

One might also ask other questions:

When will the true unemployment facts be made public?

When will the true CPI be made public?

When will the Constitution be followed?

When will those who lost money via MF Global be made whole?

When will the financial criminals be held accountable?

When will the Federal Budget be balanced? Etc. Etc. Etc.

Answer: Never. The entire system will have to die before reality can emerge. If people in general were aware of the true extent of our problems, financial and otherwise, the entire system would descend into chaos. What's the phrase? Oh, now I remember: Extend and Pretend.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

Well put Geezer. And knowing what you know, it's obvious your condensed list provides only a fraction that could easily be 1000 entries long. Yet even still, we'd arrive at the same conclusion with the same answer of "Never". Never will we see what we perceive as real. We know this right? We all do however it remains frustrating to all of us.

Why? Because we Know we ARE being sold. Entities, Organizations, Governments, Puppets; all have selfish needs to sell themselves in every way possible and as exemplified in the above article. Entities will lie to lie to lie to get done what they need done for self-sustaination. We know this. This is what we read and are aware of. The anser is YES, we are being sold a bill of goods. So this Extend and Pretend becomes the new REAL that we see however "wrong" it may be.

But it is now. It is the reality (however tainted) and all we can do to keep our collective sanity is work the crevases around it, bound by truths and honesty and do the best for ourselves without going crazy or insane or without being pushed to the outlands as a total rebellious and cantankorous freakshow.

We all find in life that people are genuinely forgiving and will allow for many crimes and mistakes if one only tells the truth. Truth is powerful but also, being forgiven for breaking a truth does not afford those in possession of this power the ability to maintiain that power after admittal. Once the truth is admitted, the power must be relinquished. You get to live on, but you'll do so without the power you once dominated with. That's the issue. People will always contintue to lie individually and collectively until their dying moment simply to never have to abandon the power they've once possessed.

See Smigel in Lord of the Rings for a video demonstration of the power of power. 

  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhF060VmS1g&feature=related

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:48 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

When will financial criminals be held accountable?

Good question.  I saw an attorney panel discussion of the subject on CSPAN a couple days ago that was an interesting display of the reasons . . .

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/304321-1

Holder's Assistant AG (Criminal Division); Barofsky of SIGTARP fame; a third prominant public-private revolving door tool of the oligarchs . . . and good old Elliot Spitzer. 

This was not the lame milk toast version of Spitzer who had turned my stomache on his CNN talk show for a couple years (before being replaced by the moronic Erin Burnett), oh no:  Now I see why the banksters went after him. 

The guy is absolutely brilliant . . . and lets 'er rip on the banksters and .gov over the last half hour of the show. 

Holder's boy, on the other hand, had a very entertaining  hour-long convulsion of tics. 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

I am surprised there has not been a class action lawsuit by all of the homeowners who believed the NAR and its "sales have turned positive, the dip bottom is in BS" during the entire price collapse.

 

Then again...this is the new fraudster friendly America, where to make $1 by doing $100 of collateral damage is considered the mark of a successful businessperson.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Lawrence Yun... What a maroon...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:04 | Link to Comment JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

 

 

Renting is Better then Buying these days (New York Times):

 

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Fox-Scully
Fox-Scully's picture

It is rumored that Larry will become Obama's new press secretary

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

It is rumored Bullshit Barry will become Larry's new press secretary in 2013...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

I'm still wondering if county sales to Fannie/Freddie are counted in the NAR numbers. They are counted as real estate transactions in my local paper. There are hundreds every week.

Then you have hundreds of all cash deals for next to nothing, investors buying up homes cheap to rent out in anticipation of Obma's Section 8 in millionaire land plan. QUICK GET YOUR McMANSION TO HOUSE YOUR 18 KIDS ON THE GOVERNMENT DIME!!!!

When 75% of the real estate transactions in the paper each week are foreclosure transfers to government entities and foreclosure sales to speculative investors, can you call that a housing recovery????

 

Oh yeah this is the same NAR that was founded for the explicit purpose to goose property values in an attempt to increase commissions to NAR members. HOW'S THAT AVERAGE HOUSING VALUE DOUBLING EVERY 5 YEARS WORKING OUT FOR YOU NAR FUCKERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I remember seeing commercials every single day, "On average home values double every five years, talk to your local realtor about buying your home today. It will be the best investment you ever make."

When is every member of the NAR going to be arrested for fraud??? Never.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

Any ideas on when it would be a decent idea to be a first time homebuyer in oklahoma city?  I'm 26, still love to travel but thinking about settling down and having kids in the next 5 years or so.  Or should I just continute to RENT 4 LYFE

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 14:23 | Link to Comment AndTheRest
AndTheRest's picture

Do you think you will be able to maintain a stable income for the next 30 years in a commutable distance from where your future home will be located?  Keeping in mind all that has happened in recent times with the dot com bubble, the housing bubble, the recessions, the lay offs, the downsizing, the off shoring, the surge in oil prices, etc.?

 

If yes, you're either stupid or you work for the government, so either way, go ahead.  If not, then no.

 

You have self identified as female here in the past I believe so your best bet is to do like your fellow American women and find some dumb guy who will let you tell him how to spend all his money.  After you have a couple of kids and some time goes by and you get bored of him, you can take his kids, house, money, and will to live from him in a nice quick divorce proceeding.  Make sure to screen for violent tendencies and "outside the box thinking" (I told you to find a dumb one, right?) because he might kill you and burn the house down otherwise.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

thank you for removing yourself from the dating/gene pool

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 11:52 | Link to Comment AndTheRest
AndTheRest's picture

As a man I ain't outta the gene pool until someone puts a bullet in me.  I can't wait to see the drunken blue collar slob you settle for when you're 28 and your biological clock is going off like a sun going super nova.  Prepare to lower your standards.  America's young men have largely been destroyed by an anti-male, feminist culture that values female traits like docility, obedience, and worship of paternalism (subilmated as the socialist welfare state).  Women 30 and under earn more than men 30 and under and have twice the college graduation rate.  Not through hard work and superior performance, but through anti-male affirmative action discrimination that puts men at a massive competitive disadvantage to their female peers in school, on the job hunt, and in the office.

 

As America follows Europe into the socialistic civilizational twilight that comes with feminism, we will be subjugated and dominated by the chauvinistic Hispanic immigrants that value Machismo and enjoy putting women in their place so much it's practically their favorite sport (right after boxing...wait a minute).  Meanwhile, Europe will be subjugated and dominated by their Muslim immigrants, who make the Hispanics look like feminists by comparison.

 

Some here on Zero Hedge hope to see the global financial system collapse so they can live out their fantasy of building a gold and silver based fiefdom in some shitty part of America.  As for me, I hope the whole system crashes and burns because Western civilization is weak, effeminate, utterly corrupt and deserving of nothing but contempt.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 22:36 | Link to Comment kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

I'm not the one taking any opportunity to go on rants about my shitty dating life.

Has it ever crossed your mind that maybe it's you? I mean, I know your daddy told you you're a champ/tiger/hell-of-a-guy etc. but which is more statistically likely:

 

1) That all 150,000,000+ American women are fucked up

or

2) You are not top-shelf material

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Danger Will Robinson! NAR revises their numbers ... again!!!

And MBA purchase applications are falling ... again. Better be a boatload of cash investors to driver that increase in home sales!

 

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/existing-home-sales-r...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:45 | Link to Comment boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

From the NASDQ economic calendar:

Highlights
Big price reductions are giving a lift to existing home sales which rose 4.3 percent in January to a 4.570 million annual rate. The median price fell a steep 4.6 percent in the month to $154,700. This decline is substantial and is confirmed by a 4.0 percent decline for the average price to $201,200. Year-on-year rates for both show low single digit contraction.

From the Mortgage Bankers Association in January:

Released On 1/11/2012 7:00:00 AM For wk1/6, 2012

Highlights
After three weeks of very steep declines, the purchase index jumped 8.1 percent in the January 6 week. Despite the jump, the four-week average is down 2 percent and signals moderation for housing sales which had been picking up through November and October.

Released On 1/18/2012 7:00:00 AM For wk1/13, 2012

Highlights
An adjustment for New Years Day clouds what are enormous weekly gains for mortgage application data. The purchase index jumped 10.3 percent in the January 13 week to recover recent losses with the index back to where it was in mid December.

Released On 1/25/2012 7:00:00 AM For wk1/20, 2012

Highlights
The purchase index slid back 5.4 percent in the January 20 week from the prior week's enormous 10.3 percent rise. Adjustments for shortened holiday weeks have made this index unusually volatile so far this month which puts the focus on the 4-week average which is up 0.5 percent in the week for a sign of strength in underlying home sales.

Released On 2/1/2012 7:00:00 AM For wk1/27, 2012

Highlights
Mortgage applications for home purchases slipped 1.7 percent in the January 27 week but the dip wasn't enough to derail the 4-week average which is up 2.5 percent and which offers a mild indication of strength for January home sales.

Released On 2/8/2012 7:00:00 AM For wk2/3, 2012

Highlights
Mortgage applications for home purchases are on the rise, but just barely at least for the February 3 week.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

So, the MBA purchase applications do not match the NAR home sales data release.  I am to believe that there is a sudden shift in residential sales to cash purchases?  Because that is the only explanation for the alleged increase in sales even as mortgage applications were essentially flat. 

Then there is another item in the report that needs discussion, it is the 4.6% drop in house prices, this is a bit more credible than the so called sales increase, but it also means on a macro level that home equity took a hit approaching 5%, and that being the major source of household wealth makes this a far scarier number deserving of it's own discussion.  The amount of wealth lost by the lower and middle classes in the residential RE debacle so far is in excess of 6 trillion dollars, and still dropping, it more than wipes out the rise of the equity market in the last year which would be apples to oranges anyway since equities are not a major reserve of wealth for the bottom 75% of the population. 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment AndTheRest
AndTheRest's picture

All of this drama over a few percentage points nudge this way or that.  All because the global financial system is built on the fatally flawed notion of infinite growth.  Year over year profits, population growth, consumer spending, tax revenue, government spending, housing sales and prices - all assumed, nay, required to increase every year forever or the whole thing self destructs.

 

As for the rest of you, you're polishing the brass on the Titanic.  The whole thing's going down.  The system is fatally flawed from its inception, like a newborn with a congenital heart defect.

 

And I hope it does.  With the death of the Anglo-Jewish global financial system comes the death of the New World Order and the promise that somewhere on Earth man will remain free.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment honestann
honestann's picture

There is nothing "borderline" about NAR criminality.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!