NAR Continues Tradition Of Making Mockery Of Itself, Revises December Home Sales From +5% to -0.5%
And here is yet another reason why we will permanently ignore the pathologically lying real estate syndicate known as the NAR (link): December data was just revised from +5% to -0.5% (from 4.61 million to 4.38 million). Since December market expectations were for a +5.2% print, imagine the sheer horror the algos would have been faced with had the real number been reported on time. Needless to say, if this number had been unrevised, the January +4.3% increase would have been a decline. This way the aglos focused only on the immediate moment get two months of beats in a row. Huzzah. Anyone who trades anything based on this borderline criminal self-reporting enterprise needs to have their head checked. In other news, when will the LIBOR investigation finally target the NAR?
And for feces and giggles, here is the one, the only, NAR mastermind Larry Yun.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said these are early signs of what may be a sustained recovery. “The pattern of home sales in recent months demonstrates a market in recovery,” he said. “Record low mortgage interest rates, job growth and bargain home prices are giving more consumers the confidence they need to enter the market.”
NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said more buyers are expected to take advantage of market conditions this year. “The American dream of homeownership is alive and well. We have a large pent-up demand, and household formation is likely to return to normal as the job market steadily improves,” he said. “More buyers coming into the market mean additional benefits for the overall economy. When people buy homes, they stimulate a lot of related goods and services.”
Warning: the man in the above video may be a paid actor.
Golf clap Larry for this latest piece of paid propaganda. However if you were to actually stand back and have an objective thought for once in your life you would know that record low mortgage interest rates are doing absolutely nothing for consumer confidence, as shown here.
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It is a National Tradition to revise previous number downward.
They don't care about the revision now, because the market already reacted in a positive way to the fake numbers. Everyone will ignore the real numbers, after the fact. They will keep doing this as it works for the market.
They all do it, and anyone caught NOT contributing to this outright fraud will be fired on the spot.
It's all about goosing the markets. Nothing else matters.
"It's all about goosing the markets. Nothing else matters."
Tru dat. But it's not just NAR ...
It is my sincere wish that during my lifetime the Federal Reserve will just come clean and admit in public that they really just have a single mandate -- to goose the stock market as needed.
Like anything else matters besides perpetual QE & LTRO...
5.5% is a helluva miss
They don't care about the revision now, because the market already reacted in a positive way to the fake numbers.
You've just quoted, verbatim, Principle #1 of the Complete Ponzi Manual.
I think we need the folks over at Nanex to do some analysis of quote stuffing at the NAR.
Seriously, these serial liars continue to deceive people in the midst of making huge financial decisions...the biggest most will make in their lifetime.
Shut this F'n operation down!
+1
Buying a house is like signing your life away, unless you are planning on having a triplex and renting, or you are buying the plot for its arable land.
"Plot" lends itself to one other interpretation.
But LH... It's an opportunity to own the mortgage debt... not the house...
Where can you possibly go wrong???
Anyone stupid enough to still believe they can maintain a stable income for 30 years deserves to be foreclosed on and lose their 10 years of equity.
Of course. The revisions are already priced in.
Those Assholes cook their numbers every time....
Wow, if this clown Yun doesn't get fired from the NRA, our 2nd amendment rights are going to be history.
Lawrence Yun is not worried...
He is eminently qualified for an executive position at the B(L)S...
"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said these are early signs of what may be a sustained recovery. 'The pattern of home sales in recent months demonstrates a market in recovery,' ”
What goes up must come down
spinning wheel got to go round
Talking about your troubles it's a crying sin
Ride a painted pony
Let the spinning wheel spin
http://man.century21firstre.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Dr...
Yun says that all the time.
In fact, they could replace him with one of those automatic newswriting robots very easily.
Should take the bots 24-36 hours to figure it out. By then, we will have a close above Dow 13,000 /sarc
.
Nobody could have seen it coming....nobody!
Golf clap
one handed clap
Matters not. The Holiday bump was delivered on and everyone got their bonus.
BLMBRG: 'Existing Home Sales Rise 4.3%'
Now, let that settle in with the bots and PRESTO! You've got one hell of a deluded public.
Ditto on CNN Money site. Everyone is singing from the same propoganda hymnal.
Economy: Existing-home sales rose 4.3% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Economists were expecting a sales rate of 4.5 million, according to consensus estimates from Briefing.com.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/22/markets/stocks/index.htm?iid=mkt_SF_news
Ditto on CNBS alerts.
I get them for the comedic value, as it's always a 180 from what I see here.
Doesn't matter one bit what is revised after the fact. Confidence, aka confidence building, is a JIT (just-in-time) activity. What have you done for my confidence lately buddy? Everything else is just old news.
I don't give a rats ass what you do to last months numbers. Give me today's buzz NOW...........
Riddle me this, how is it that the "headline scanning algos" don't read this news?
Selective computer algo blindness?
Why waste that valuable time sorting through all of the worthless reality, when you can "cut to the chase" by focusing on perception? Even tails that wag the dogs require efficient utilization of resources. Especially as their half-life approaches zero.
As Jim Sinclair says, it's all MOPE (Management Of Perception Economics).
Revised from +5% to -5% ? How broken is the initial estimating mechanism ?
Not broken at all bro. If it is a statistic it can be manipulated to say whatever you want it to say.
It ain't broke if that's what you want. In fact, the PONZI would say it's working just fine.......thank you very much.
I can say with 78.5% certainty that you are indeed correct!
pods
It's definitely a feature, not a bug.
Listen pal, it is the responsibility of every patriotic American to accept -- no, to demand -- good news and only good news all the time 24x7. We are at war, not with an enemy we can see, but with the invisible enemy called fear. Yes fear. Fear will erode our will to struggle, fear will weaken our precious bodily fluids! Americans cannot be herded like cattle out of fear! We can be herd like cattle in other ways, Hell that's as American as the Super Bowl, but not by Communistic unGodly fear!
So bring on the good news! Go ahead, revise it later! We can take it! We dream big and lie even bigger because we are Americans!
Oh and everyone please support my bid for the GOP nomination. Get a destroyer into the White House! Imma set fire to those lying mutherfuckers boo-yah!
Love, the Archangel Fortran
I miss Fortran the Destroyer. :)
"Anyone who trades anything based on this borderline criminalself-reporting enterprise needs to have their head checked."
With all deference I think it is about Fortran. Anyone who's programmed computers knows how they can become predictable and you can infer much about the program by examining the output. We have a programmed market right now with the NAR being one of the spoonfed inputs. It should be possible to analyze the output and develop ways to front run the algos, at least by a better mind than mine. During the air war against Serbia the US lost a stealth fighter because the computerized flight programs reused waypoints, preset flight destinations, to fly the planes to their targats. The Serbians learned that if you hear the jet pass over point A at a certain time then it will pass over point B so many seconds later. It was then a simple task to put up massed antiaircraft fire at the right time and the unseen aircraft came down.
Someone who discovers the analogous quirk in the algo-driven ponzi will get rich. If he/she publishes it the ponzi will have to be reprogrammed.
"Listen pal, it is the responsibility of every patriotic American to accept -- no, to demand -- good news and only good news all the time 24x7..."
Your president is...
How's that working out for you?
You know that much reverse truth is going to get us all on a list and the site.. banned.. some one told me the java code hosted on the server belongs to MS or someone.. in Hollywood..so they can shut this web-server down at will. :-(
They have a judge somewhere that doesn't even have a smart phone ready to shut down the internet.
They tested it with Wiki Leaks...
So they are going to shut down ZH, Way to much truth sneaking out.
I mean for God Sake.. if you don't give your money to the bank's (fee's and interest) you should at least give it to the government.
and if you don't do that you more than likely are one of the .00097% and how come your so smart and don't pay taxes or pay interest?
PL
It is the Greek GDP model.
...which incidentally is the same as Obama's job creation model.
That's racist! It's Bush's fault and you know it.
So solly. Decimal prace ony accidentry move one, not two.
Working as intended.
People will always say what's in their best interest, NAR included.
How many men tell their wives or girlfriends the truth when they ask, "does this make me look fat?"
If you really want to avoid those types of land mines just do this the next time they ask if this makes them look fat:
(with crazy wild eyes) "OH YES, I love it!"
Bonus credit if you can work in either "apple bottom" or "badonkadonk."
You will not be asked for an opinion again on the matter.
pods
That's a binary outcome play. You're either golden or you're nursing a fat lip.
Human nature, true, but usually you only lie when you know you can get away with it. These guys, all of them, economists, banksters, politicians and the MSM pimps, look you right in the eye and lie to you and you know they're lying, and they know you know, and they tell it anyway, hoping you'll say to yourself, "he wouldn't lie if he knew I knew he was lying, so maybe there's some truth to it," and it leaves that little bit of doubt in your mind. But, no, they're lying and we know it and they're still getting away with it. Or maybe I'm just confused.
"Does this dress make me look fat?"
"No, your face does".
That's the "I'm ready to be single again" play. Warning: Could be hazardous to your health.
Wait, aren't new home purchase move inversely with itnerest rates?? That's what they taught us!
Golf clap, indeed.
and how much did the release of this false number pop the S&P in December?
it probably helped support the almost linear climb of the indices we observed since beginning of December
manipulators got the job done, again, perfect smokescreens
and nobody cares about revisions anymore, the "better than expected" January number will appear to be equally meaningless
The NAR's press release for December existing home sales came out Jan. 20, 2012 at 11:30am. Prior to the release, the S&P was was down about 4 points for the day. Immediately after the release, the S&P moved about 4 points higher until 1:30pm. There was a most definite pop after the release.
Lawrence Yun is in the same league as the ex Iraqi information minister.
Baghdad Bob! 'Tanks? What tanks? No tanks here!'
Dude, I'd all but forgotten about Baghdad Bob. Thanks for the trip down memory lane. Does this mean I can call Bernanke....Baghdad Ben?
Please....may I?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf
Who can forget this YouTube gem by Dear Bob.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s27Oq5ot0ZI
Then there is Baghdad Ben with "We are not printing money".
http://dailybail.com/home/bernanke-on-60-minutes-were-not-printing-money.html
My old friend Baghdad Bob seems to have landed on his feet at Augusta National. :>)
CD is getting giddy reminiscing about the good ole days...
That war is a tragedy but it was fun to watch his press conferences.
'Theres NEVER been a better time to buy a house than RIGHT NOW! Contact your local NAR realtor today!'
Brought to you by the NAR Union scam artists.
Hurry! Act NOW while supplies last! Before you are priced out of the market!
At least with the NAR you never have to write any new material...
Of course the headline running says, "Sales of existing homes up 4.3% in January since they were revised down, that makes for a nice gain. Well spun indeed.
all data released from all sources works like that, so it is not as if that is some peculiarity of the NAR.
I suppose it's worked beautifully for UE Claims for weeks on end, so hey, why not use it with every data point.
obviously the data arent up to much if they can be revised so sharply, but i what would be the point of "lying", when they release the "real" numbers the next month?
i dont see how the NAR would be advantaged by it.
given the huge market reaction (not), i am guessing that the "algos" dont actually trade off this anyway.
why not just defer one month and print the revised rate, that would fix the problem
"i dont see how the NAR would be advantaged by it."
How can a sales organization not gain advantage for its members by constant propaganda to the upside in an attempt to create demand and market frenzy...
Me and Edward Bernays will get back to you on that one...
I suggest a little bit of study on psychology, sales, and perception. The NAR is primarily a lobbying group representing salespeople who depend on people who think they're acting on their own best interest, but are actually enriching the real estate industry. Reporting the bogus and inflated numbers is an attempt to create urgency and convince people to make an emotional decision rather than a logical one.
Here is the FoxBusiness headline summary. Look at the headline then read the first sentences carefully.
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise More Than Expected in JanuaryExisting home sales rose 4.3% in January to an annual rate of 4.57 million units, the highest rate since May 2010. Economists had been expecting a 1.9% increase to an annual rate of 4.65 million units. However, sales in December were revised significantly lower to a rate of 4.38 million units from 4.61 million.
We don't "revise," we defer revelation of the truth.
VooDoo Real estate.
The numbers from the NAR are like dog crap.
They are soft and pliable when they first come out, then some time later they shrink and harden.
Sir, your statement offends dog crap...
Is there any honest institution left in this fucking country?
The Ministry of Truth says war with East Asia is imminent. They've always been right (sooner or later).
War will bring peace when sex brings virginity.
Are Million Dollar Bonus and Larry Yun ever in the same room at the same time?
stock market already pumped, who cares.
Nar has been forecasting a rebound in housing longer than Cramer.
Since 2006....housing has been rebounding.
Of course these genuises haven't taken into effect that ball and chain effect that student loans have on new houshold formation, this issue of $3-4 a gallon gas (something that has only been occuring since 2008), the stagnation and outright deflation in wages for the bottom 70%, and the unquantifiable effect of lasting PTSD from 2008.
Hey but #btfd and get a half warrant for a new house.
yes but, you left out January's great sales number! Look (from finance.yahoo.com):
Existing Home Sales at 18 Month High, Supply FallsReuters
U.S. home resales surged in January to a 1-1/2 year high and the supply of properties on the market was the lowest in almost seven years, pointing to a nascent housing recovery...
As much as we rip CNBS's Steve Liesman , Bloombergs resident genuis Mike Mcgee outdid himself this morning in regards to this housing data..He was gushing how much of a beat this number was..why it was up 4.3% ..a number no one was expecting..of course he made very little mention that it was dus to the huge downward revision from Dec.I'm very thankful; for sites like Zerohedge
This means McGee wins this month's trip to Chicago's Man's Country with the Dear Leader.
CONfidence, BiTCHeZ!
furthermore, just having a look at the last 70 months of data, there have been exactly (i kid you not) 35 upward revisions, and 35 downward revsions.
there goes your stupid bullshit theories.
honestly, i have never read so many references to 'sheep', nor found so many, as on this forum.
You wouldnt mind sharing your quote unquote data now would you? Because here is ours, straight from the NAR, and it shows 4 straight years of downward revisions.
Frankly we agree: why refer to sheep as sheep, when idiots is far more appropriate.
But Tyler........they were only off by a four year average of -14%. Good enough for government work where I come from.
/sarc
Funny, off by 14% is about how off Bernanke is with inflation and unemployment numbers.
Michael Olenick: 9.8 Million Shadow Inventory Says Housing Market is a Long Way From the BottomWednesday, January 11, 2012 Michael Olenick: 9.8 Million Shadow Inventory Says Housing Market is a Long Way From the Bottom
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/01/michael-olenick-10-million-shadow...