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Negative Bank Preannouncements Begin

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We are not even half way into the quarter, and the negative preannouncements for financials have already begun:

  • MACQUARIE SAYS `SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER LEVELS' OF CLIENT ACTIVITY - BLOOMBERG

Why is this the case? Just read the previous post on market volume hitting decade lows. And while there are just under 2 more months left in the quarter, absent some seismic volatility explosion in the next month (ahem, Greece) we fail to see how bank revenues will grow at all sequentially, let alone QoQ. Furthermore, with the curve once again flattening, and mortgage rates dropping to all time lows to the point where Net Interest Margin benefits for banks have disappeared (read more on the impact on the liquidity trap from this morning's Bill Gross note), key M&A activity being halted by regulators on either side of the pond, and Facebook about to suck up all IPO unencumbered capital for months, we fail to see how banks hope to generate any incremental pick up in their top line. Furthermore, SG&A slash and burn  (which the BLS fervently refuses to acknowledge ever happened) will only make top line growth far slower if a true rebound for the financial sector ever materializes. Bottom line: the dash for trash in the financial sector is coming to an abrupt close.

 

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Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:38 | 2132166 non_anon
non_anon's picture

what's for breakfast?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:42 | 2132177 Rainman
Rainman's picture

massive loss reserve releases....hot sauce with that ?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:45 | 2132188 non_anon
non_anon's picture

huevos rancheros sans huevos

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:50 | 2132199 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

The Careless Whisper Trivia Question Of The Day (Answer A Few Posts Down)

 

Why is LPS (Lender Processing Services) trading up 33% in the past two weeks?

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:18 | 2132262 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

When is facebook IPO'ing?  I want to buy sone silver before it does to celebrate this idiotic market and all of the inflation it gives away for free.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:11 | 2132405 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

That's a great question, considering all the lawsuits they're named as defendents in, along with the suspicious death of an LPS whistleblower in Nevada, and the rest of the shady shit they're involved in.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:55 | 2132207 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

"huevos rancheros sans huevos"

Mmmm...rancheros.  They're what's for dinner.  The other white meat!  North Korean cannibalism, Southwest style -- hooray!  

Everyone get out your forks and put on your running shoes!

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:07 | 2132231 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

In the TBTF bailout era and ZIRP,  bank earnings are only good as toilet paper.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:13 | 2132283 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Cannibalism it's the new capitalism

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 21:33 | 2132568 non_anon
non_anon's picture

ha ha, good one!

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:29 | 2132423 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

Macquarie is not really a BANK (even though it pretents to be)

Macquarie is basically a highly leveraged Infrastructure Hedgefund

Macquarie used to specialize in leveraged buy outs (LBO) and are basically

geared up to their eyeballs in unsurmountable Debt.

I had been a longtime Investor in "Australia's largest Investment Bank"

Macquarie Bank, MQB back in 2007 when they had been the first to start that now infamous LBO Model,

private Equity Deals financed by taking on huge Debt then putting them into some ETF

a bit like Mitt Romney at Bain. They bought Thames Water and soon London paid more for their Water,

they tried to take over Quantas,by a Leveraged buyout, but fucked up that deal, not submitting the paperwork in time to a major shareholder, and just look at quantas shareprice now.The proudest Airline in the Worlds shareprice used to be 3.00 AUD ten years ago, but fucks like Private Equity LBO Funds including Macquarie have done them over real good!

My superfund had Invested heavily into Macquarie Bank, believing all their spin, Macquarie shares traded as high as 85 AUD before the big fall in November 2008 when their shares fell all the way down to 15 AUD amongst Rumours, that Jim Chanos of Enron fame, had looked at the Macquarie investment bank model, saw all the Debt load and called it a scam, similar to Enron, Jim started selling short and my investment took a Nose-dive and left me with a $300,000 AUD Nosebleed that I still remember very well to this very day.

JIM CHANOS, the man who blew the lid on Enron has other concerns, too. He says the fee structure encourages serial overpaying for assets because Macquarie gets fees based on the size of the assets it spins into its trusts.He says the Macquarie model relies increasingly on unsustainable self-dealing between Macquarie and its funds.

For a while I blamed Jim Chanos and all the short-sellers, until I did some of my own research and what I found out truly horrified me. At first Macquarie Bank MQB (now MQG) did not even hold a Banking Liscence. It got one from the Australian Government, just before the shit hit the fan and Jim Chanos had put the highlight on MQG, both in Australia and in the US.

Goldman Sachs itself watched closely and is actually modelled after the Macquarie LBO model, also getting a Banking liscence just before TSHTF so the US Government bail-out and back-stop of their CDS in the AIG scam would be "insured"

or else Macquarie or Goldman Sachs would have died a long time ago.

Macquarie has always been very "opaque" about the Debtload it carries. The FED has modelled its Central bank after the now infamous Macquarie Model, where apparently no-one can ever lose.

Well, be warned "Investors" apparently Jim Chanos begs to differ and he has $300,000AUD of my hard-earned Retirement Fund that tells me: Jim Chanos was right! Macquarie is a lot like Enron. 

Macquarie Bank model cannot last: Chanos

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s1938221.htm

JIM CHANOS: The underlying economics, in my opinion, are flawed.

Being the top bidder for these assets and then flipping them into the trusts leads to an unsustainable economic engine at the trust level. And when that breaks down all of the fees and whatever's being paid begin to break down.
Macquarie's funds pay their investors out of borrowed money and that's one of Jim Chanos' key concerns.

They revalue the assets they own then borrows money against the re-valuations to fund the payments to investors, a strategy that could founder when, inevitably, the period of cheap credit and asset price inflation comes to an end.

 

JIM CHANOS, the man who blew the lid on Enron has other concerns, too. He says the fee structure encourages serial overpaying for assets because Macquarie gets fees based on the size of the assets it spins into its trusts.He says the Macquarie model relies increasingly on unsustainable self-dealing between Macquarie and its funds.

 

Macquarie Bank response to comments by James Chanos

http://www.macquarie.com/mgl/com/news/2007/20070531a.htm 

 

well, don't say you havn't been warned...

now fuck off !

wr;)

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:37 | 2132456 chump666
chump666's picture

Macquarie bank got bailed out after the credit crunch in 2008 by the Australian goverment.  It also taps a RMBS fund by the Australian goverment.  It's a zombie.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:04 | 2132630 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

no! no! phuck in! phuck in! good stuff. appreciate it! i was hoping "for some more." this is a pretty puny bank in my book. or, as we now know "a pretty puny we are now bank so we can get bailed out" kinda thing! GO KIWI'S!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 00:03 | 2132888 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

here is a little "holey Dollar" history for all the Gold and Silver bugs

including the first ever QE1 Qantitative Easing in 1812 by Governor Lachlan Macquarie:

Macquarie Bank (MQG) chose their logo in homage to the holey dollar and their "Bank" name after Lachlan Macquarie the british colonial administrator who served as the last autocratic Governor of New South Wales, in Australia from 1810 to 1821 and had a leading role in the social, economic and architectural development of the colony.

Macquarie is credited with producing the first official currency specifically for circulation in Australia. Foreign coins were common in the early years of the New South Wales colony but much of this coin left the colony as a result of trade with visiting merchant ships.

To secure a reliable supply of coins, in 1812 Macquarie purchased 40,000 Spanish dollar coins and had a convicted forger named William Henshall cut the centers out of the coins and counter stamp them to distinguish them as belonging to the colony of New South Wales and prevent them being useful elsewhere.

The central plug (known as a "dump") was valued at 15 pence and the rim (known as a holey dollar) became a five-shilling piece.

And so QE1 was invented by Governor Macquarie in 1812

by punching fucking holes in the Spanish currency...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lachlan_Macquarie

wr;)

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 06:53 | 2133315 o2sd
o2sd's picture

Macquarie Bank, you will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.

 

Eat shit and die you vile scum.

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:43 | 2132180 Neoisolationist
Neoisolationist's picture

have to fix your post non, how about this?

 

Austerity...it's what's for breakfast!!

 

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:54 | 2132209 4horse
4horse's picture

The Austerity Of Hope

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:00 | 2132621 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

Bailout bacon and eggs with ZIRP sauce...

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:41 | 2132172 Jason T
Jason T's picture

On Balance Volume??... what was it Joe Grenville was talking about?  

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:43 | 2132181 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

It's all customers' fault. How come to not provide enough cash for unrecorded transactions?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:44 | 2132186 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

I'll believe it when BAC goes back under $5 again. Too many crackheads still think BAC is a $50 stock for some unknown reason. Only 3 words separate BAC from being AIG --> "mark to market"

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:10 | 2132238 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

No kidding.

Banktards will be out saying its all priced in. Rally on.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:45 | 2132477 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Isn't the euro bank short sale ban supposed to end soon?

Will they let it?

And what if they don't? 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:10 | 2132643 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

that's a good question. personally i think the Fed and Treasury have done a work around Wall Street...we shall see of course should the general strike ordered for Greece tomorrow turns out to be the "coup de grace." There's so much debt monetization it's really hard to imagine a true bank failure...though obviously a massive "bank rearranging" can be done if necessary. should we be in the midst of a true self-sustaining recovery then Wall Street becomes irrelevant at that point. Indeed...they're a hindrance.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:48 | 2132193 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Isn't this where they buy CDS on themselves quietly only to loudly celebrate a "massive beat" later?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:53 | 2132205 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Trivia Answer

 

No one knows why LPS is up 33%. However, there are unconfirmed rumors that the nationwide AG foreclosure settlement contains a clause that will require all states attorneys general to drop all current lawsuits against LPS and banks.

http://stopforeclosurefraud.com/2012/02/06/outrageous-massachusetts-neva...

 

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:00 | 2132219 4horse
4horse's picture

 

HARDTIME

 

echoing perhaps too much of a mob hit, or even vietnam hangover, Wackenhut had a name change  .  .  .

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=BOW20120206&articleId=29109

.  .  .  geo-synchronized with the times, its new navigation does seem to find more and more travellers safely arriving, at GEO

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:18 | 2132261 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Well...  not to be the bearer of the obvious, but that's what you do in a settlement...

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:52 | 2132492 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Well, not to be the bearer of wtf, but why would anyone settle with an entity that isn't a party to the action? LPS was never involved in the Attorney General settlement talks, so why would they suddenly reap the benefit of a settlement? Perhaps the banks are looking out for their co-conspirator?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 21:45 | 2132593 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Kind of...  possibly indemnification issues...  possibly no one wants the additional legacy litigation overhead before purchasing...  could be a myriad of things.  In the end, it's meant to be a global settlement...  and, in the end, the AG talk is shit compared to the private lawsuits...  and the government can't undo what has been done by waiving a magic law...  

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:14 | 2132413 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

How 'bout those AGs, huh? Looking out for all of us and our best interests. This is the kind of shit that just absolutely pisses me the fuck straight off. It's a fucking criminal payoff taking place right before our very eyes, and yet not a peep from The People. Of course, you won't hear about it on the CBS Evening News.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:55 | 2132210 HD
HD's picture

Huh. Eliminating real price discovery on an ocean of HF trades and Fed liquidity isn't a confidence builder?

People outside the bubble are not as stupid as the street likes to believe. Wall Street needs all that dumb money to blindly turn over their savings to money managers in hopes of a tiny return. The banks need people obsessed with their credit score taking out "we hold all the cards" loans...those days are over.

Read an MSN, USA Today or similar comment section when the topics are banks, credit scores, a rally on wall street or even last Fridays job numbers. People are angry and the comments are almost universally negative. No one except the 1% is buying the hopium.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:03 | 2132225 4horse
4horse's picture

1% is selling. always

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:19 | 2132266 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Will they ever be forced to cover, though?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:19 | 2132661 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

no. the 1 percent is always buying. eventually you do have options (think Hank Greenberg at AIG--it this were true free market capitalism he would have been wiped out when his company was nationalized because of his incompetence (by dint of the fact he was soley invested in AIG apparently. Diversification people! Get with the program!) Anywho "that didn't happen because he was so rich." The whole thing is nothing more than "billionaire protection" now. It's never been about free market capitalism or true risk taking--at least not since the 50's and 60's when risk taking still had meaning--and certainly not like the gold standard days or the 20's when people really do lose everything. Of course there is that "internet thing." still minting billionaires in that space! HAPPY TRADING!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 10:47 | 2133685 4horse
4horse's picture

Sales -a state of mind- always finds its own market of ideas, open to suggestion

 

 

 

no. the 1 percent is always buying its own bouzwha?

no. selling. selling. selling its own bait'n'switch ideaology
                                                      idiocy, y'ad think

whose intelligentsia can't just have ideas put in their head

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:20 | 2132272 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

If they could find enough stupid people with the werewithal to buy in, then they wouldn't have to get a bailout...  Either you jump in the ponzi or we'll tax you and give it to them...  thanks guys...  appreciate it...

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:03 | 2132226 GoldenGal
GoldenGal's picture

Time to sell gold?

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/last-chance-sell-gold-suttmeier-...

 

Diamononds are the NEW gold!!

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:20 | 2132274 unrulian
unrulian's picture

...I'll sell you my ex wifes diamond of some of that gold

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 21:27 | 2132556 4horse
4horse's picture

Time to buy goldman?

then Dimon is a gal's best friend

 

DeBeers is DeBig Jewellers

Dimon is the new gold

                             
                              gems everywhere
                                    like crimescenes
                                    just follow McTurd footprints . . .
                                    left behind like kleptosaurus droppings

                                                                                      1.2 quadrillion served since bore war

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:14 | 2132650 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

Diamonds are a great way to transfer money abroad, so they say. Ever wondered why they installed the naked scanners?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:11 | 2132241 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

This gives analysts (i.e. whoremongers) reason to lower the bar for quarterly EPS now so that companies in the financial sector can "beat estimates" and give the MSM cause to applaud if/when the time comes.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:15 | 2132251 HD
HD's picture

Sadly this is true...and it works.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:28 | 2132293 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

It seems to work every freaking quarter.  Perhaps this happens because the MSM is owned by the 1% who thrive on market melt-ups before dumping their shares onto retail buyers.

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:14 | 2132410 HD
HD's picture

Yup. Problem for them now is - where's the retail?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:30 | 2133016 Conman
Conman's picture

No retail to dump to means what? Dow 14k? Watching this market melt up on every single down day is insane. That seems to be the only sure trade these days, BTFD!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 12:29 | 2134071 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

BTFD ? I don't think we've seen the real fucking DIP

yet

wr;)

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:06 | 2132393 seek
seek's picture

The financials knew their quarter was screwed last year. Banks were paying off 2012 expenses in the last week of 2011 so they could cost-shift to make 2012 look better, everyone I know who has any connection with financial companies saw the same thing.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:16 | 2132255 Eclipse89
Eclipse89's picture

bullish

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:20 | 2132270 Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

Cant eat paper bitchez!

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:23 | 2132282 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture
Potential employers can pull your credit report, with your permission. Declining can raise red flags.

 

The black marks that might give an employer pause are ones that leave the deepest stains on your record: a loan default, a bankruptcy, a debt that's gone to collection.

 

An employer must obtain your permission to pull your credit report. But declining is "like saying no to a Breathalyzer test," says John Ulzheimer, the president of consumer education for SmartCredit.com. The consequences are sometimes worse than just getting it over with," he says -- namely, the employer could choose another applicant for the job if you are secretive.

 

http://money.msn.com/credit-rating/article.aspx?post=dbc9e73d-5a61-4902-...

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:36 | 2132310 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

My credit report is essentially a blank paper, because I have NO debt. Does it mean I don't qualify for an American job?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:33 | 2132306 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Bring out your dead....

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 19:39 | 2132322 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

What...no more slop for the pigs at the trough...? No more hosts for the parasites to feed upon. No more sheepie to be sheared. The poor, poor banksters...no more easy money to feed the billion dollar bonuses.  No more volume to pump, dump, churn, shake and bake. Got my popcorn and scotch out to watch the implosion of the rats and squid... :)

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:10 | 2132402 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

So are they really warning or just getting it priced in ahead of time?  At that point in time we will probably have to watch the visual video in the HFT post in slow speed otherwise it will appear as one solid screen of orange/green/red that occasional appears to blip.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:10 | 2132403 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

All those banks need to DIE now. NO BAILOUT, NO NOTHING. DIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIE.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:26 | 2132435 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Agreed. Thing is they're already dead.  They're huge buildings full of idiots who own and control the entire world with worthless pieces of paper and digital zeros.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:39 | 2132460 chump666
chump666's picture

Hurry up Greece. 

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:55 | 2132474 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

that guy who said, he robs banks because that is where the money is, would be in for a rude surprise if he was alive today

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 00:44 | 2132969 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

The bank robber is, of course Wille Sutton : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Sutton

 

Now it's "Banks rob people because that's where the money is." (Except it ain't so much these days.)

 

NFP

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:10 | 2132645 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

This should come as no surprise to anyone. Banks are in the business of lending, not raiding public coffers and trapping liquidity earning measly yield. Their overheads are enormous, especially to retain "genius talent" that's as productive to society as a one armed brick layer in Bagdad. We have a confidence problem here and I'm not talking about the currency. It's like the end of a bad poker game when everyone discovers the dealer has rigged the cards. Guns are drawn and pointed but no one dare make a move. 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:43 | 2132722 brettd
brettd's picture

Well, everyone's pushed back from the table.

The problem is that nobody's quite sure who "the dealer" is:

Banks?

Regulators?

AGs?

Congress?

Voters?

If there was just one dealer, you can be she'd be forking over her ill gotten gains and gingerly walking out the saloon doors, empty handed.

 

 

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:14 | 2135784 4horse
4horse's picture

The problem is that nobody's quite sure who "the dealer" is:

_ _ _ _ _ ?

. . . deep cartesian doubt can be like that, however a systematic necessity, of existense

ergo hence thus, denying the obvious: driving you out of your mind, yet, no matter how flat-out fearfully, nonetheless bringing you to your senses when indeed spinning on a sphere rotating around nowhere revolving round emptiness at thousands of miles-per-hour

 

 

allow me to put your mind at rest: It's The Fucking Banks!

1 particular, in fact, having long-already gotten the biggest bang for its buck by rotating an earlier Empire round its little finger until the sun finally set, and which, perhaps as well planetary, round which all other satellites, states, nations must orbit like lifeless moons

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 22:45 | 2132728 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Shit Happens

 

Then U Die

 

Lather, Rinse, Repeat

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:13 | 2132995 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

So we have Uncle Ben and his Dovish Dozen (Minus One) keeping interest rates ZIRPed to infinity and beyond, or 2014, whichever comes first and yields twisted flatter than a pancake; which sets risk on and gets the retail investor to flee to the stock market - except they don't, and market volume is way the hell in the tank. Retail investors are keeping their money in the bank, where it sits because the banks can't find any interest plays worth the perceived risk; and the customers can't find anywhere else ('cept maybe a bond mutual fund here and there) where their money is 'safe'. (PMs are way too speculative for this crowd - don't waste your breath.) So the banks poke their trading desks to squeeze some bucks out of all those damn HFT computers, which is generating a nice little market run up which may be running out of gas as the institutional computers get tired of playing with one another; and meanwhile, Greece default lends a certain, ahem, air of uncertainy about our banks' near-term future (even though it is, of course, all-priced-in; 'cept for 2 to 14 layers of re-hypothecation and the lack of knowledge on who the hell is holding the final CDS bag); plus all those damn existing and potential future lawsuits over the mortgage foreclosure operations which some folks think got out of hand - I mean, what the hell is a poor banker to do?

 

Meanwhile, FAZ hit a 52 low (Friday close I think) and is very close to that low right now.

So riddle me this:

Time to dip a toe in that leveraged ETF water?

NFP

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:21 | 2133006 Conman
Conman's picture

Wait , wait , wait, you mean the Facebook IPO isn't going to make up for all revenue loss mentioned? Surely all the awesome tech ipos must've made the Squid and Dimon  tons?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 06:55 | 2133317 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

You know what fucks me off??

I have tried to live my life as best I could, followed the law, done what I always thought was the right thing and brought my two kids up the same way. Respect each other and always do the right thing.

What the fuck for????????? The fuckers at the top have screwed us all over for a song. These bastards imho will get exactly what they deserve when this charade comes down.

Play by the rules? Not when you make them tho eh???

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:21 | 2133471 Element
Element's picture

This may have more to do with MACQUARIE as a brand and an image, rather than just the market.

They are a ponzi great-white shark pretending to be a sure-thing goldfish.

Buyer beware.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!