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As Negative Gold Lease Rates Collapse, The Gold Sell Off Is Likely Coming To An End
One of the more curious dynamics for those who follow the gold market closely, has been the relentless grind lower (or higher if looked at on an absolute value basis), of gold lease rates (defined as Libor - GOFO), which recently hit all time record lows (i.e., negative), for the 1 month version, although the more traditional 3 Month (as it is based on the benchmark 3M USD Libor) was also quite close to breaching historic low levels. And while we have discussed the nuances of Libor-GOFO, or the gold lease rate extensively before, a good summary was presented by Jesse's Cafe Americain yesterday, who correctly suggested that record lease rates are a primary driver for the near historic sell off we experienced yesterday. In a nutshell, negative lease rates mean one has to pay for the "privilege" of lending out one's gold as collateral - a prima facie collateral crunch. The lower the lease rate, the greater the use of gold as a source of liquidity - and since the indicator is public - it is all too easy for entities that do have liquidity to game the spread and force sell offs by those who are telegraphing they are in dire straits and will sell their gold at any price if forced, to prevent a liquidity collapse. Said otherwise: to force a firesale. Well, we are happy to announce that the selloff spring clip potential that is embedded in a near record negative lease rate has now been discharged courtesy of the $100 dump in the past two days, which may have happened for a plethora of reasons and nobody can tell why precisely, but one thing is now sure: the underlying tension in the supply and demand for gold as a source of liquidity has collapsed. That said, the next time we approach the previous thresholds we will advise readers as it will likely indicate another gold-derived liquidity rubberband "breach" is imminent.
3 Month LIBOR - GOFO
And Long-Term LIBOR - GOFO:
Charts: Bloomberg
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jfc you are crazy. Classic ad hominem. When you can't come up with anything else, start talking about someone's family...LOL. You're such a cunt, mosely-claven.
The problem is that all of your calamities that are imminent DON'T HAPPEN. You keep saying BUYBUYBUY because the world COULD end tomorrow...surely, you cannot be stupid enough to fail to see the fallacy inherent?
I'm not even going to justify the rest of your bullshit with a response other than LOL@U
The matrix was never my analogy; it's a ZH meme, you stupid fuck.
lol at the juxtaposition of your first two sentences.
lol, you keep thinking the capital markets are jsut fine and dandy there, boy. I'm very glad to hear that you don't own ANY precious metals now, so when your account goes MF Global, you will be totally impoverished, and won't be able to impliment any of your comic book villian plans to sterilize 97% of the Earth's population.
If the matrix isn't your analogy, then why are you the only one using it?
Proven dumb again, Trav. Just remain blind, and continue refusing to accept responsibility for the shitpile that is your life. I like you better this way.
I'll split the difference......buying silver right here and on subsequent dips with a 1-2 year horizon is a good look. Buying dollars will work for a 3-6 month time period as it seems europe will have to print first (or be on the verge of printing as who knows what the fuck will actually happen). I really do think sports gambling is a much better proposition to any of this finance shit. Too many variables these days, media, megalomaniacs, government statistics, bailouts, HFT, algos, dark pools, frontrunning, commingling, lies, etc. It's not your father's investing. If I bet on a football game or UFC fight and lose at least I know why? To use a poorlly constructed metaphor, equities, commodities, credit is pretty backing an inflationay or deflationary horse at the most crooked track known (not even Yonkers raceway).
Truth is not the only thing that is unpopular. Arrogance, bigotry & hypocrisy also make the list.
I'll take the accurate investment advice of an arrogant bigot any day over the advice of someone who is just plain incapable of giving me good investment advice.
<removed>
Thank you to whoever removed that fvcker.
gonna go out on a limb and say you can find someone who shares neither quality
at some point, one of you idiots is going to have to DEFINE what you mean by "racism" and "bigotry."
How many times do I have to cut and paste wikipedia for you?
Racism is the belief that inherent different traits in human racial groups justify discrimination.
A bigot is a person obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices, especially one exhibiting intolerance, and animosity toward those of differing beliefs.
At what point did I advocate discrimination based on race?
I have no animosity either.
Again, you make assumptions that are just patently false. By your definition, I am neither a racist nor a bigot.
Your utter inability to dispassionately examine your own arguments and opinons is simply staggering.
Why would any woman ever leave you? You're such a catch, lol.
That wasn't an ANSWER, Cliff.
Now, ANSWER THE QUESTION: at what point did I ever advocate discrimination based upon race?
(hint: you're in a trap)
Women don't leave me, I throw their ho asses out, like that Ethiopian one. Bitch just got on my nerves and so she had to gizzo.
How did she get on your nerves? Did you bring up peak oil again during pillow talk? Was she a silver bug? Give us some details buddy!
if all you ever said about folks with darker pigment was limited to IQ, your question would have more pathetic interest but even that "fact" is subject to some significant debate. Intelligence is a nearly indefinable trait that covers some pretty broad territory. I hear it can even include "diverse" things like musical and artistic talent
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bell_Curve
really it's irrelevant.
No sooner do you people claim IQ isn't different between races than you ADMIT that it is but then say IQ doesn't measure anything.
This just proves you to be both liars and idiots.
IQ DOES measure something...something important. The fact that you cannot "define" intelligence in the abstract is irrelevant. IQ is a measure and its measure correlates well with certain outcomes. That is all that matters.
The problem is that you people, like average blacks, have LOW IQs. That is why you cannot understand these things. My recommendation is just to STFU. Stop thinking you're smart, ok? Cuz ur not.
Yes, ZHs all have low IQs.
LO FUCKING L.
not everyone, Cliff, just you and people like you.
If you were smart, you wouldn't have lost half your life's savings in the span of a couple of months.
Notice that I never said "ALL"...I said PEOPLE LIKE YOU.
But I thought ZH was an echo chamber, and everyone was just like me? After all, I get all the green arrows (u jelly).
So which is it?
Your doublethink is showing.
it is an echo chamber...and becoming more so as time goes by.
The intelligent besides myself don't comment as much anymore.
You are leading it to becoming a version of Yahoo!
funny thing, I heard that one sign of lower intelligence is oversimplification, but what do I know, "my people" are just like "average blacks" with "LOW IQs" And remember, every time you tell someone their "not smart" it makes you smarter.
ironically Trav you alone are proof of the complexity of intelligence. Some things you say are quite brilliant, other things are painfully ignorant, self destructive and short sighted.
----
The connection between race and intelligence has been a subject of debate in both popular science and academic research since the inception of intelligence testing in the early 20th century.[1] There are no universally accepted definitions of either race or intelligence in academia, and any discussion of their connection involves studies from multiple disciplines, including psychology, anthropology, biology, and sociology.
The official position of the American Anthropological Association is that intelligence cannot be biologically determined by race.[2] The American Psychological Association has said that while there are differences in average IQ between racial groups, and there is no conclusive evidence for environmental explanations, "there is certainly no [direct empirical] support for a genetic interpretation," and no adequate explanation for the racial IQ gap is presently available.[3][4] According to a 1996 statement from the American Association of Physical Anthropologists, although heredity influences behavior in individuals, it does not affect the ability of a population to function in any social setting, and all peoples "possess equal biological ability to assimilate any human culture" and "racist political doctrines find no foundation in scientific knowledge concerning modern or past human populations."[5]
Intelligence quotient (IQ) tests performed in the United States have consistently demonstrated a significant degree of variation between different racial groups, with the average score of the African American population being lower— and that of the Asian American population being higher— than that of the European-American population. At the same time, there is a considerable overlap between these group scores, and individuals of each group can be found at all points on the IQ spectrum. Similar findings have been reported for related populations around the world, although these studies are generally considered less reliable due to the relative paucity of test data and the difficulties inherent in the cross-cultural comparison of intelligence test scores. While the existence of racial IQ gaps is well-documented and not subject to much dispute, there is no consensus among researchers as to their cause.
Four contemporary classifications of position regarding study of differences in IQ based on race/ethnicity are seen. The first is that these gaps reflect a real difference in average group intelligence, which is caused by a combination of environmental factors and heritable differences in brain function. A second position is that differences in average cognitive ability between races exist and are caused entirely by social and/or environmental factors. A third position holds that differences in average cognitive ability between races do not exist, and that the differences in average test scores are the result of inappropriate use of the tests themselves. Finally, a fourth position is that either or both of the concepts of race and general intelligence are poorly constructed and therefore any comparisons between races are meaningless.
I would suggest that you learn the difference between they're, there, and their
and don't crib fucking Wikipedia on this topic...
do some actual research. Start with certain Nobel Prize winners who said the "unsayable" and go from there.
As far as the above claims on hereditability...absolutely false. Anyone who says that should be taken out and beaten.
yes, you have never misspelled a word in a quick post, I understand. This debate concerns intelligence not the limited test mechanism called IQ. The Wikipedia quote is one of many sources that come to a similar point regarding the complexity of "intelligence" measurement. It also lists the numerous sources.
On the other hand, you claim in another post that black culture is a "failure." That's funny, on that logic white "culture," and many other "white" systems are in deep trouble all over the planet. What a conundrum. 1984518
This bitter, hateful, collectivist, obviously racist, vile piece of shit Trav has yet to tell us why his supposed "stupid nigger" theory even matters, unless he is proposing sending all the stupid, murdering niggers to concentration camps and gassing them just as his ideological forebears did a number of decades ago with another ethnicity that was judged purely on group characteristics (which were idiotically false in any event).
don't forget to extract free human labor first - quite valuable in both a pre-extraction and post peak world
Sigh...silver sits at 29. A 3/4 oz silver dollar then is worth roughly 22 bucks, maybe 24 bucks. So, a silver dollar will buy you a hamburger combo meal at mcdonalds and a ticket to the movies. Some have estimated that silver will skyrocket through 100/oz. It can only do that if there is massive inflation. Silver is more useful than gold, and has industrial applications. But recession cancels out industrial demand, so the silver price increase becomes mostly monitarily driven. The more it is monetarily driven, the more silver acts like gold, that is, it's purchasing power becomes frozen, tied to the inflation/deflation of fiat. Chances are, a silver dollar will continue to buy a happy meal and a movie, regardless of the fiat fluctuations.
In a deflationary world, the prices of everything come down. As all debt-based forms of money self-destruct, we are left with... cash. There isn't that much of it, those printed peices of paper. It will suddenly buy more and more, as prices drop. Commensurately, a chunk of gold and silver will buy about the same as always, but its equivalent value in cash will drop, because the only money will be cash and PMs. Ironically, as the prices of gold and silver plummet, it will be harder and harder to buy any of it, since no-one will have any cash, and its role as an investment will become negligable.
I like silver dollars, but only because silver dollars ARE cash. They are widely accepted, denominated, and recognizable. Try spending a five-dollar gold coin smaller and thinner than a dime, and see if anyone will give you full value for it, if they even know what it is.
I'm with Trav, and I'm stuffing cash in my mattress in anticipation of the melt-down.
shhhh...don't tell the silverbagholders that their metal's demand figures are primarily industrial-driven.
Yeah, last year had a HUGE speculative component to it...a prediction I'll go on a limb and make is that as the price crashes, those speculative weak hands (the type of people who come onto ZH to hear mosely-claven saying BUYBUYBUY like a one-bit Jim Crammer) will reduce buying or will disgorge their purchases at a loss.
People who chase bubbles are NOT sellers into strength nor buyers into weakness. They do the opposite.
Keep cash and gold...if you want to speculate, buy platinum or trade for convergence in those latter two metals. Stay the fuck away from silver except as a COMPLETELY speculative (iow paper) investment.
If you are waiting for TEOTW, you CANNOT CARRY SILVER in enough quantity to stay rich. If TEOTW happens, silver's price crashes because all that industrial demand goes poof. That means a lower relative price. Gold is just different and platinum or palladium are far, far rarer.
I have said all along that if things stick together, at some point, silver production will peak and then it will receive the same price tailwind as gold has gotten since its peak in 2001. Any mattress stuffer must focus on value density first.
But you said TEOTW wasn't going to happen, and we should all hold dollars?
Which is it, Trav?
I never said you should hold dollars, Cliff.
You ASSUME things when I say "don't do what Cliff says," and your infantile brain is only capable of holding a BINARY outcome model.
And you outright lie when you claim that tmosley was screaming "BUY BUY BUY" at $49 --- a peak which lasted, what, all of part of one day?
In reality, he was advising caution, and to the extent that he was screaming anything, it was "Hold Hold Hold" --- which, given the very real possibility that we were witnessing the collapse of the entire paper silver Ponzi market (as we WILL at some point), was wise advice indeed.
You are a lying, disingenuous, racist, collectivist piece of filth.
Dumb Ass!
Smart Guy?
Agree - most here pride themselves on not being 'sheeple', but refuse to countenence any suggestion that AG & AU are not going to the moon, and label anyone who thinks so a troll or an idiot or a sheeple.
Its boring.
While I might not agree with all of your views, I definitely am with you here. People subscribe to a mindset and an absolute, and are incapable of seeing beyond it. There is an assumption that hyperinflation due to printing and currency collapse is a sure thing, and that assumption might be blinding people to something I have been considering of late. That something is that Ben has stepped back and has given up believing endless liquidity can solve this mess. Bernanke has stated that now it is up to legislators to get their act together and not expect him to hand out money. He has also seen Merkel draw a line in the sand against ECB printing, and though he lowered the FX swap rate, he has not taken any other active part in trying to save Europe from itself. This might be a new Bernanke who, assuming there is no easy way out, is not going to exacerbate it any further, nor go down in history as the man who destroyed the fiat system.
I check out money supply data, and while both M1 and M2 jumped from July to October, it seems to be waning. Besides, much of that increase had to do with disintermediation of sorts, in that money was withdrawn from equity accounts and moved into demand deposits. It seems that rather than Bernanke, the aggregates grew because people and companies moved toward a posture of increasing liquidity. By the way, the sharpest rises in PM prices, almost mirroring that of 1980, occured when M2 was growing at only a third of the rate it was growing in 1979-1980. M1 was about the same in both generations. There was, however, an expectation of intentional growth.
Bernanke may continue to try to fill holes, but nothing more. He might try to modulate deflation resulting from credit destruction, now accepting that deflation is inevitable. It is unlikely he wants to stoke the fires of hyperinflation (the WSJ noted Bernanke has been reading about the history of post-WWI Germany), and while he may have done much to start those flames, he seems to have pulled back before the roaring inferno got up to temp.
Yes, this is blasphemous on a site like this where there is a groupthink. Though I would be wise to take the 5th here, I did have Bernanke as a prof and he actually was kind of a nice guy. He was not as strident as he now appears, and was not wedded to any particular economic philosophy. I have gotten plenty angry at him, even incensed, from time to time, but I think I note a change in his mien over the last few months that has really coalesced in the last week or so. I was purposely ignoring it until now. That perception has got me preparing for a lot more deflation. Bernanke may be a proud man, but he is not dumb. He may have chosen what he now feels is the best of a bad selection of paths.
I do like PMs--gold more than silver (which is too bulky to move around and not readily identifiable by the average person)---as a hedge and as diversification, but I can entertain the possibility that Au falls back to even something like $300-$500 again. (Heck, another rare metal with industrial uses---rhodium---was about $10,000 a few years ago. Today it is $1425. Anything can happen.) Au is, after all, just a shiny piece of metal, only having value if somebody else wants a shiny piece of metal. It has its thousands of years of history, but the vast majority of its historical aficionados are dead. The 99%, who folks here claim do not own any PMs, are held back by inertia and the habit of believing what they have believed their entire life. Neither the (dead) historical gold lovers, not those filled with inertia, nor those who can’t scrape together $500 for an emergency are going to be buying, and PMs cannot go up on their own. Those who have been heavy buyers over the last few months while PMs have actually fallen (China and India), are suddenly experiencing new economic concerns and may need the wealth they still have to keep their populations happy.
High net worth folks and HF managers drove Au from $250 to $1200 or so, at which point it became "real money" again. Some of these very same people, seeing its run might have come to an end, and experiencing losses in many other asset classes, are now selling. There's lots of talk about "paper" and physical prices, but this is misleading. Given the size of some of the physical positions held by HNW folks, the futures markets are the easiest way to hedge. Everyone likes to cry "manipulation" when a market moves against them, but legitimate attempts at hedging can move markets, especially when a collective realization comes that deflation might be taking hold. Better to keep the mind open, or if one definitely wants to hold PMs, ignore price altogether. It is not wise to seek out those who merely say what one wants to hear. While it remains a distinct possibility that Au will achieve everything its bearers hope for it, it is also possible that a sudden restraint will appear, as it seems already to have done with Merkel and maybe Bernanke, and that gentle or moderate long term deflation is in our cards. An open mind---not a mind that constantly seeks only confirmation of belief---is not such a bad thing. If it is wrong for the “sheeple” to be unquestioning, it is wrong for everybody.
you went to princeton, huh? Props. No wonder.
Anyway, gold is an insurance policy...you don't need many others.
I can understand the math and Ben will print the coupon as he has no choice but to. This will prevent the collapse of the compound interest function.
However, the wildcard is what does the government do. Ben may not want to print; if the sovereign demands it and he refuses, he will be replaced at gunpoint. In fact, this is what has transpired throughout history. It hasn't been bankers that have shat on currencies, it has been governments.
This is the issue when dealing with snakes and thugs like legislators and government; they are only your friend when it is expedient to be. A Putin or Chavez or even Hitler can come in and march you off to a Zyklon B date. It's business.
The mob analogies are apt. The Congress is the best friend to the bankers until and unless it is necessary to become their enemy. And the military marches not to the tune of the bankers. The funny thing about politics is that it is in hard times easy to find demagogues who will promise to exact revenge on all manner of boogeymen.
93% of blacks who are privileged enough to attend that school graduate.
It's all where you start Trav, not your skin tone.
Yea, but Scotttrade is off line.
apmex sold (or pulled) ~35% of their inventory of 100 ozt silver bars within the last ~40 hours. Looks like the price point under $30/ozt sparked huge buying of physical silver. I wasn't watching gold inventories as closely, so I don't have a similar statistic for physical demand in that market.
In the short term, the Ponzi plays PMs like a piano. In the long term, PMs will play the Ponzi like the foolish fraud it is.
haven't seen you in a while. Helping santa? I hear the good list needs some cross checks
Running Santa's list through the NSA databank now. I was digging in my back yard last week and found a wire tap.....so I have hacked the hackers. :>)
My personal life has taken an interesting turn for the better. Still assimilating all the changes. Unfortunately my ZH commenting and writing has suffered somewhat of late. I'm still gettting back into the swing of things.
the quantity not the quality
The nature of man is to look for reasons of a melt-up or massive sell-off. Next time won't be any different.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
GTFO GOFO
Hi CD....I prefer the violin..has nice ring
More keys on the piano to manipulate PMs with, so I thought it a better comparison.
On the other hand, one of my favorite movies is "The Red Violin" with Samuel L Jackson.........playing an unusual role for him. But the highlight of the movie for me was the violin(s) throughout.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120802/
Say Violin again motherfucker
Nice twist on one of Jackson's most memorable lines in "Pulp Fiction". :)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0110912/
Sam Jackson is an inferior actor and should be sterilized.
At least, according to Trav.
Huh?
You cannot seem to grasp the difference between a generality and a specific, can you?
YOU should be sterilized.
According to you, the center of the black bell curve is much lower than that of whites. Since you want to sterilize 97% of the population based on IQ (which has been proven to change in a single generation with social status), unless Sam Jackson is in the top 0.0001% or so of blacks, you want him sterilized.
It's easy to be specific when you are so generic.
What the fuck does this statement have to do with the last one, which was that I wanted him sterilized because he was an inferior black actor?
IQ doesn't change due to social status in one generation. You are wrong. Adopted twins studies have established this conclusively. Wouldn't expect you to know that (or much of anything else).
where's "bill - I was broke ass when gold was at $200 - now i have all the money i could have ever wanted...called gold top at $1900"?
right here getting stopped out of a long position i took on gold this morning, lol
So back to yesterday's question. You see gold at $233 if say Ron Paul is elected. In a scenario where gold is at $233 what do you see prices for regular goods being? Where would CPI be if gold is at $233?
£28 per oz of Ag. Thank you!
This tells me gold is the true money and the last resort.
Surely Eric Sprott would be buying those 50m oz about now ... it won't need to be reported when he does. Anyone know what's happening with that?
If Sprott pulls that off, I'm gonna drop a flaming bag of shit on all these tin-medal Nobel prize winners doorsteps, one by one. Hoping they'll tweet to all of their ghetto genius followers how it smells.
My dealer is sick and tired of the paper bs. so he just pulls inventory
when this happens and has done this for years. The concept of selling
at paper price is changing slow but silver will find its true price someday.
TY Tyler Merry Christmas Thank You "Jesus"
Your DEALER is going to pull his supply of FIAT when it comes time for you to SELL your gold. HAHAHAHHAHHAA
Um, no...the point of holding physical is not to time when you can turn it back into dollars. If you want that trade, better off with some NFLX or whatever.
commerce exchange
not sure china is purchasing gold .. not sure, but my mouth is moving and not my brain
russia may sell .. for cash flow needs .. bravo may come .. not sure just guessing but moving mouth is sure thing
so there, two totally worthtless quesses , but so what, mouth is in working condition, . brain is way behind
Gold up 10%...silver 14%...oil......holy ghost!
its Iran thats behind this; they scared the world on oil hike at Hormuz dyke and played short on all commodities; Ayatollah made a killing, he can now go celebrate in virgin territory.
They learn fast; I think they have been watching the KArdashians pole dancing on Al Jazeera. It does wonders to your adrenalin pump. Great parallel play, watch pole dancing, go jump the dyke at Hormuz. Then short commodities and the gold bug. Its all connected. And it all starts with a woman; Jezebel on her pole. Wow, did you get a peep of that show?
This is a fucking disgrace, you cannot make a sound investment in this dump without these bastards stealing.
What are you going to do when these sun-worshippers control both sides? What can ANYONE do - but follow the clues and hopefully go along for the ride and succeed a bit. We are dealing with the scum of the scum. Its sucks - BIG time.
HEAD'S UP. Buba dumped Target2 receivables onto the ECB :)
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/germanys-hidden-risk-12142011.html
Has The Imploding European Shadow Banking System Forced The Bundesbank To Prepare For Plan B?
The BIG Euro unwind :)
I was just about to tell you that I noticed Tyler no likey the lins to BI, but I was too late. Now you know.
Thats how many years of Merkel's salary : Half a trillion...she must have a huge fan club of virtual lovers!
Does Angie know yet ?
;-)
The bottom line: Germany’s Bundesbank—BuBa for short—has quietly, automatically lent €495 billion to the European Central Bank via Target2.
I have felt for some time that gold was going to start becoming more or less untenable as a reasonable investment. For folks with junk gold and the like there may be some chances to make some money, but overall I think a lot fo people are going to shift to silver. It is far more accessible, and while the profits are obviously much lower, being able to get into metal for as little as $20 is pretty cool.
www.golddeputy.com
This is one of the worst, if not the worst correction in the years I have been involved with gold and miners. I stay the course but I am the first to admit it is not easy and at times I doubt my own thesis. But I am not relenting that gold, silver and miners are the place to be for the forseeable future...If there is any future.
Long all.
" the next time we approach the previous thresholds we will advise readers as it will likely indicate another gold-derived liquidity rubberband "breach" is imminent.
That will be very much appreciated!
You gold horders answer your own questions. If your 'dealer' pulls his gold for sale on 'down paper' days, what does that tell you is going to happen IF gold goes super parabolic up???? Your 'dealer' will be CLOSED. Furthermore, where on earth do you think your dealer is going to get $20,000/oz worth of FIAT FROM to buy your gold with to begin with? He is NOT!!!! Ever.
Of course the dealer will be closed. We won't be selling either.
What do you think gold is for, if not to carry us into the next currency regime with our purchasing power intact?
lol, you would be the tard selling gold for zimbabwe dollars at the height of hyperinflation.
Brother John has posted the exponential rise in India gold/silver volume. No downward blip for gold in May 2011 and only a 20% downward blip for silver in May 2011
http://brotherjohnf.com/2011/12/15/mcxindia-silver-trading-volume-wow/
BOOM.
Someone answer me this. PLEASE. If pms are getting smashed in the short term but in the long term are expected to do well or skyrocket; what then IS the definition of long term and short term in days , months, years.
it depends on you. My short term is intra day. Some peoples short term is 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, long term is over 1 year. etc Now if your old and think that you bought all your gold at 200, then long term is 15-20 years etc etc. Good luck investing for the 'long term'
watch oil production data
it will tell you everything you will need to know about timing of wars/draconian laws/food supplies/med supplies - stocks are overvalued currently - no cheap energy - no cheap widgets - no growth - no dept servicing - commerce collapses.
currently long term is 3 years
short term is mid january
Any non-usable commodity (to you) or other "store of wealth" -- no matter what it is -- must be traded to someone (a counterparty) for what you wish to consume.
If that counterparty doesn't have a use for what you wish to trade him, whether it be gold, silver, T-Bills or federal reserve notes then what you have in that instant is worthless. As such all such assets have "counterparty risk."
lol at the idiot who has no idea what a "counterparty" is, and just tries to fake it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterparty_risk#Counterparty_risk
It means someone who might default, leaving you with NOTHING. If someone decides not to buy your silver, then YOU STILL HAVE YOUR SILVER.
So stupid.
No real gold was harmed in the making of this production.
Just to check I looked at the Baltic Dry Index chart on Bloomberg for the last five years (BDIY:IND) and sure enough it is still no where near its 2008 high. Comparing it to the worlds debt load indicates we've got a real long road to go on getting back to healthy economies IMHO. In other words think precious metals as a hedge for your health.
I just head the Republican congressman Ed Royce on CNBC use the word ‘borrowed’ in relation to MF Global’s customer funds. Of course he should have used the word ‘stolen’.
It did sound pretty much like they were doing payday loans to themselves for a while with client funds during testimony this week. It would have worked too if those pesky kids in London had sent the check back on time.
Don't forget Corzine and his Vizier are appearing before the House Financial Services Comittee today at 1pm EST: http://www.c-span.org/Events/Jon-Corzine-Testifies-on-MF-Global-Again/10737426329/
Witness List: http://financialservices.house.gov/Calendar/EventSingle.aspx?EventID=271818
Long John, thanks for that link.
Our gold, silver will probably not be for us but for our daughter. How the hell is she going to pay back 15 trillion +. The entire system has to reset so we can start over with real growth. Long term is "after we are gone". This is not a 1 year or 2 year nightmare. It will be a while before this country is forced to change. Until that date, and I have no idea when, we will just have to continue to preserve the wealth we worked so hard to acquire over the years.
Not quite sure about the strap line of this Article implying Gold Sell off coming to an end !!!!!. Back testing yestedays lows around $1564 as of 15.50 GMT and plenty more momentum for further downside today on the short term hourly view.....
Visit Turd for this kind of "bottom is likely in" call...and he's watching and waiting right now.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/
Tylers may have spoke way too soon.
I've never felt so good about being rolled back 1.5 years and being down 130K; strange. PHYS -8%, PSLV -23%.
BUY THE EFFIN' DIP YOU EFFIN' BITCHEZ!!!
Pretty cerebral argument going on here... with a few F-bombs for spice.
isn't the bottom line that gold is the reflection of fiat... and until the debasement starts up again (maybe ongoing but out of the media for now?) the price will not trend strongly upward...''Should be soon, as the world debt mess is far from being solved... and politiscum are shy about allowing a deflationary collapse, would prefer kick the can to inflation spike...
And supposedly China and Russia are gobbling up physical, so the argument that gold has no intrinsic value is sort of foolish when U compare it to the intrinsic value of paper currency... they both sort of suck but are not stupid (like, for example Bush or Perry)...
Waiting to pounce...
Oh the sell off it not over. Dream on boys this is just the wind up pitch for the first inning in a brand new game. have fun.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MJdBWuGehU&feature=autoplay&list=ULNLXUSRChUSs&lf=mfu_in_order&playnext=1
happy trails trader boys.
This is interesting and meaningful but I think some basics need to be made clear.
Firstly, there is no such thing as "negative lease rates". "Negative lease rates" mean that people with gold pay others to borrow the gold. As any cognizant person can guess, this does not in fact ever happen.
The idea of "negative lease rates" comes from LMBA's practice of publishing figures for the spread between Gofo (an average of interest rates charged to borrowers who put up gold as collateral - these rates are always positive) and Libor (an average of rates charged to borrowers who put up no collateral). When the spread is negative (gold-collateralized loans are more expensive than unsecured loans), then theoretically bank A can obtain use of gold collateral and be paid for it, by borrowing from bank B at a lower rate and then re-lending the money to customer C against gold collateral at a higher rate.
But that would not be a "negative lease rate", that would be an arbitrage between the lower creditability of customer C (who has to pay high rates to borrow despite placing gold collateral) and the higher creditability of bank A (which can borrow at lower rates with no collateral). The point is the spread between Gofo and Libor is not a simple spread because the two measures are of loan rates to completely different pools of borrowers with radically differing average creditability. Nobody creditable enough to get an unsecured loan at a Libor rate is paying a Gofo rate to borrow against gold. If you're borrowing against your gold, you almost certainly can't get any kind of unsecured loan whatsoever.
What is actually happening is that Gofo rates have been falling quickly since their peak on Dec. 6-8. See the data: http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=55&show=2011
That could mean one of two things: the liquidity crunch that drove the spike in Gofo rates up to Dec 6-8 abated, or the liquidity-starved institututions that were driving up rates have no more gold against which to borrow.
Come to think of it, the drop in the gold price since Dec. 9 could also be a cause of the drop in Gofo rates, as the lenders who are accepting gold collateral could be more assured it will retain value after a $100 fall than they were before it.
Also, I might add that people do of course pay others to store their gold, but storage is a hum-drum, stable business totally unrelated to the Gofo-Libor spread.
Tom, I think you're wasting your time. It is obvious Tyler has minimal knowledge about the gold market if he thinks Jesse provided "a good summary" and cant see that Jesse is clueless when he says things like “the lease rates reported in the press are a derived rate and actually represent the amount that can be earned from the gold carry trade” (nope, GOFO is what you earn from a gold carry trade - see my Misinterpretation of Gold Lease Rates blog post). No one here actuallys wants to discuss the issue. Back to my cave.
Well, Oh Arrogant One, perhaps you would care to explain it for us.
But given your past apologies for the likes of Jeffrey "Loose Lips" Christian, COMEX, the CME, world central banks, and just about everyone else (including, for all I know, that loathsome and vile gold-hating, pro-bankster shill Jon Nadler) involved in the precious metals paper Ponzi scheme, as well as the long-running suppression and manipulation of PM prices that you so vigorously deny, perhaps we should not have expected anything else from you, Bron, but yet another attack on a noted voice of financial and monetary honesty and integrity (if perhaps, and very occasionally, slightly muddled facts).
akak, it is explained in the Misinterpretation post on my blog, look it up.
As to your other statements, I think you have me confused with someone else. This was my comment in response to this question from a reader "I just want to get a sense of whether you believe their is any covert nefarious intervention in the gold market.... quite frankly, your credibility hangs on it IMO":
How is this "vigorously deny"? Have you actually read my blog?
"In 1897, the nation was suffering through the Long Depression, which, ironically, was in large part the result of the decision to revert to the gold standard upon the conclusion of the Civil War. As ‘greenbacks’ – notes which were not explicitly backed by gold – were pulled from circulation in order to bring the number of dollars back to par with gold reserves, deflation set in. Deflation hit laborers and farmers the hardest and proved to be a significant force behind the populist call for bimetallism."- "The Bakken Boom", The Oil Drum
You need to read more from other sources. Real growth was very high during most of the so-called "Long Depression".
I've done plenty of business with Provident. They're good and quick delivery.
"Well, we are happy to announce that the selloff spring clip potential that is embedded in a near record negative lease rate has now been discharged courtesy of the $100 dump in the past two days, which may have happened for a plethora of reasons and nobody can tell why precisely, but one thing is now sure: the underlying tension in the supply and demand for gold as a source of liquidity has collapsed."
My mind is in the gutter.
Cigarette?
it is a protective agent