This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Net Net: Less Than 2% From Joining The Rest Of The World In A Fresh Bear Market
The week is finally over, and the numbers are in: after narrowly avoiding the "bear market" two weeks ago when we dipped by 19.63%, or about two ticks away from the dreaded 20% correction, the subsequent dead cat bounce fabricated in no small part courtesy of Europe's unprecedented intervention in all markets, both bond and stock, has ended, and we are back to being under 2% away from reentering a Bear Market (and closing at the Lows of the Day). That however will not be the end of the world: as the chart below shows America will actually be the last major market to enter join the Bear party, so little shame there. As the second chart from Rosenberg today shows all the developed countries plus all the BRICs are already there. We expect an ongoing selloff into the last week of August (no need to remind what happens then), at which point the market may get a surprise or two. In the meantime, we depart with Rosie's words: "the US economy is slipping into recession, Europe is as well, and HP served up a reminder that this earnings season has not been the slam-dunk positive reporting period posted in the prior eight quarters. But disciplined investors who took our advice should not be feeling much pain at all." Who laughs last again?
Global bear market:
»
- 13325 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Platinum is going to break out here boys and girls.
Hope so. I bought at 1,700 a couple of weeks ago.
That said, I plan on buying down every 100......if the opportunity arises.
platinum is principally an industrial metal. demand for platinum will slump as the global economy tanks. its secondary function as a precious metal will keep it from falling. but gold — the hedge against everything — will outperform platinum, drastically.
http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/10/how-high-will-gold-go/
No doubt. I own a LOT more gold than platinum, which I own simply for some PM diversification and for convergence.
Given the scarcity of platinum I find that hard to believe. I don't own any platinum myself but I think people will always pay premium for it. That said, since it's almost 1:1 with gold, I think platinum is a good buy. Personally, I plan on taking some physical silver off the market this weekend. :p
One fact keeps me and mine focused on gold ( and silver ); the central banks around the world were net sellers of gold until about two to three years ago, now they are ALL net buyers of gold, slowly steadily patiently buying gold. Probably has already been decided that gold will be the de facto reserve currency by TPTB. Good luck with platinum, I will stick with following the money of the sociopaths while they rape and pillage anyone saving fiat, or anyone trying to 'invest' .
The same author at the globe and mail that was attempting to discredit Zero Hedge is at it again. This time he makes a weak case and calls Zero Hedge an Oddball. Check it out, support your independant alternative media. Spread the word.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/is-zero-hedge-looking-at-the-wrong-numbers/article2135532/
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/
A very simple rebuttal to that article, AAA MBS in 2005.
Oddballs? Us? Nooooooo way!
In a world full of lies, deceit, and ignorance, it is a compliment to be called an oddball
actually in a backhanded way he is acknowledging the contribution of zerohedge in provoking discussion widely in important circles and takes zerohedge to task on some analysis while acknowledge the vaildity of the points made. he is acknowledge tyler as a force to be rekonned (sp?) with global. the power of what tyler is putting out there is incredible and probably not without personal risk
cool, I read through the comments. It was mixed
Its called LATINUM u peon! And "my name is QUARK." Now be a good girl and give me an ear rub.
"Rosie, or the last laugh." (PhD dissertation title for future economics students).
There will be no future.
And the 2% to go stat is maybe somewhat less important than these:
Dec 31, 2009 close was 1115. We are 8 points away from losing not just all of 2011's gain, but all of 2010's too.
And have a look at Brent at $108. The spread is now $26.
I'm sorry but that's just insane. The world cannot function on $108 oil and even if Libya comes back online . . . 2008's spike occurred with Libya at full production.
There's not enough anymore and never will be again. A lot of people are going to die, and soon.
[edit] Make that 109. Brent up afterhours before the weekend. The spread is about $27 (that's up from ZERO, repeat, ZERO in December]
The trading desk at Godman Shafts, JPMorque, Shittybank and WeelsFagos always pump the price before Labor Day.
It is them doing their good will for Americans. And they wonder why Banksters are hated.
Back to DOW 10,000 once again.
Sisyphus market, (but this time maybe the rock just keeps rolling down)
May the rock roll to zero because on a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. Sisyphus got Syphilis from Bernaked.
Monday morning 2% will be 10%
Cheers
And..Bidless into the close. This looks orchestrated into Jackson Hole to get some free Bennies and favorable language.
10-4, this looks contrived to get the Bernank to save the day
Exactly. And don't forget that the Treasury had to deal with $600 Billion in Treasuries this quarter, as reported here back in May on ZH. This is not hurting that effort whatsoever. Perfect timing all around, I'd say.
Have to have another 8-10% to the downside or the Bernank will simply give a Lewinsky speech in Jackson Hole (aka-Lip Service).
LOL!
You guys are not thinking this through.
Bernanke took the job to do what he felt was best for America. He sat down and he read the mandate documents and saw that he was to control inflation and control unemployment.
The textbooks say buy bonds to flood liquidity when economic activity is weak, and there is no crushing inflation, which was the state of affairs in September last year. So he did QE2.
But he sees Q1 GDP this year, right in the middle of QE2, at 0.4%. He's a brilliant guy and he sees that, and he sees the oil spike in Brent, and he sees food prices. He knows QE2 did not help.
He won't QE. He had 3 dissents in just putting out loose money language stating 2 years ZIRP. He'll have 5 dissents if he tries to print more and then he'd have to resign.
I don't see QE coming.
Did I read somewhere that the Bernank felt that the depression could have been avoided had they at the time just stimulated or printed "one more time"? I think he prints out of a believe that, just like then, he needs to, "just one more time" inflation/politics be damned.
The Feds balace sheet is big enough that interest can be pooled and thrown back at treasuries
You mean to tell me that Ben Bernanke, the supreme ruler of the dollar, is going to take a moral stance for the greater good? He has the choice to allow debt to default, in essence allowing TRILLIONS of HIS dollars to evaporate in the hands of the most powerful people in the world; or, he can bail out the debtors so that his masters are paid (thus avoiding their wrath). I think you underestimate the magnitude of the political pressure for him to act against his better judgment, not to mention the bribes and kickbacks. I definitely don't envy the guy, but I sure do wish he'd grow a spine. He should resign if he can't say "no"... that is assuming, as you do, that his conscience actually exists...
I will be laughing when its raining bankers on wallstreet.
Isn't it obvious by now that the world needs more BennyBucks? Why do we have to go down further? Just to spite the Robotraders of the world? C'mon have some mercy.
it is because Benny loves you, that you need to suffer more!
Correct Tyler no pain,just gain........And thank you.
Personal record high for me today. A well diversified portfolio: gold + silver + 2 gold miners + a little US cash. All my friends think I am nuts. Thank you Tyler, Jesse, Dan Norcini and JS. Best collective advice ever.
Benron has enjoyed the assist from Robo thr momos and the all-around dip buyers of the last two years. Now Benron is going to enjoy fleecing those dip buyers.
"But disciplined investors who took our advice should not be feeling much pain at all."
Tyler, all my three accounts are green today. One account gained 20% since beginning of the crash.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mteubkwOEn4&feature=
25% drop equals QE3..
my gold is up 6%+ for the week.
They are going to slag ZH on Canada's top talk radio station at 4.16
http://www.newstalk1010.com/
All will promptly be forgotten when TSHTF in Canada, because, after all, "No one saw it coming!"
Why does everyone including ZH refer to this as a recession? It's not a recession, it's a depression of epic proportions.
You can even call it a soft patch.
But if you slip on it, you can still break your neck.
If you're working, it's a recession. If you aren't, it's a depression.
And if you are on Food Stamps, its probably a Depression.
Some people have been on welfare for decades
A five or six million maybe. But there are 45.8M on food stamps.
U-S-A! U-S-A!
I got out arround New Year. The first month I was kind of regretting it and some people called me chicken for doing so.
Those who called me chicken are now down 30 to 40% this year.
I bought a shitload of silver these last few years. A lot of people didn't see the point in doing that either.
Yeah.... it's pretty clear to never follow mainstream when you invest. It's better to follow "the whacko's" ;)
We are all "whackos" here ...
Yes, me too. They went up a little bit and a couple of times I kicked myself I'd sold too soon. I still like the names I was holding, but they have all declined between 15 and 40% since then.
I remember before the tech crash, there were guys on the trading floor who'd made millions - we had one guy who was trading support who'd made about $2mm and it was hard to get the guy to process deal tickets, because he'd just stare at his portfolio all day. When things started to fall, we told him to sell, but he was convinced there was a bounce coming, but it never did.
Yep follow the wacko's. Did the same thing as you did. Talked to my friends and only 1 guy out of many bought any silver at all and no gold.
The definition of insanity always has been, and always will be, controlled by those in power.
Now consider that the top guns are sociopaths. The levers of power always seem to attract those types, and we have a plethora of them these days.
I'll take the "whackos" instead any day.
hat tip to all folks who went home long stocks this weekend. more courage than a skydiver.
The chart seems to be missing the some of the asian markets, KOSPI, HANG, etc.
Wow.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/19/rick-perry-bank-of-america_n_93...
ZH on the frontline B!tchez - good job to Dr. Richard Head for the dirty undercover work - too bad they didn't reference you in the article Brother
scoop bitchez!
I don't read Huff Post or talkingpointsmemo or any other site that's steeped in ideological stupid. Having said that, ZH will always be at the forefront of truth in reporting.
My portfolie is shiny and bright, some 45% in two days, precious metals excluded. Why? Because I constantly listen to the whackos... Thanks, Tyler.
More like a middle-aged secular bear
Down 2,000 Dow points on Monday and Ben Bernaclekledum can start the new bull run to 20,000....bet on it
It will take a DOW AT the 2,000 level to wring out enough excess for such a run. Otherwise it will fail at the 200 DMA.
Everyone on this site is going to eat shit in 2 weeks when Obama gets back from vacation and reads from the teleprompter his master plan to save the economy. Good thing everything is in such great shape and running so smoothly that the world should have no problem waiting for his triumphant return to DC and the golden words he will read to all of us. /sarc off.
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-set-beyond-1-5-trillion-budget-cuts-130642669.html
You're on this site--does that mean you'll be eating shit too? Will it be in a sandwich?
Classic fron the dot.com era....
http://www.bobrivers.com/#v8458c7
The very large majority believes QE3 is coming, and next week's Jackson Hole conference is the time it will be announced. This feels like a crowded trade, and it makes me think that Bernanke will not announce any sort of QE program.
If that's the case, look out below because this market is pricing in QE and there will be a lot of disappointed people if big Ben doesn't come through.
I've thought about that too, but think they're still going to do something. Obama needs the fake bump, the Keynesians are tired of being laughed at, somebody's got to buy the bonds, and Bernanke is too wimpy to resist being told what to do by the squids. It's all they got.
My bet is that he'll announce something, but that it won't be QE3.
"Looking good, Billy Ray!"
"Feeling good, Lewis!"
Is Rosie a bull or bear now? Last I read he was bull, has he turned again?
Darth Vadar: "Come Rosie, give yourself to the dark side." :>D
This is really must see video:
Michael C. Ruppert calls upon the world's artistic and musical leaders to take part in the global generational revolution taking place right now. He pulls no punches as is apparent in the title, "SAY MY FU**ING NAME" ...
http://goo.gl/2vFgp
Thanks, John. I like Ruppert. here's a link to sign up for his website:
http://www.collapsenet.com/262.html
I hung in waaay too long on SRS and VXX and suffered the reverse split. Good to see a bit of live in them this week. I don't know if I'll ever get even, but needless to say for my "portfolio" we're heading in the right direction...
Thank you to whoever recommended shorting CRE and said SPG was overvalued. Making money on me puts, I think I'm gonna ride it out a bit longer.
Living through a currency devaluation and how to cope
I was managing an American subsidiary of a successful large US Company in Mexico. It had been a financial turnaround for our team. Cash flow had accumulated in our bank in Mexico and corporate didn’t want the money repatriated to the US. Although we had already paid a 35% income tax to the Mexican government, we would have to pay an additional 30% exit tax to repatriate the money. In addition, we would have to pay high fees for the peso/dollar exchange, in order to make the transfer. The company wanted to expand our successful business and so we decided to keep the money in Mexican pesos to be used for further expansion.
One morning, as my wife and I were on a trip driving on the highway, we heard a national message from the President of Mexico in 1976, Luis Echevarria, one of the most corrupt presidents in Mexican history. “It is a lie that we are going to devalue the peso,” he said.
http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/08/13/living-through-a-curren...
So? Does the 100 cross the 200 and 50 and park us in the 1050 support level?
it's funny... right after the market started to tank, several people i had been warning asked where i get my news/info. naturally i told them ZH. i'm thinking that i can't be the only one this happened to... could it be why ZH is making so many MSM appearances recently?
The MSM will eventually try to shit all over ZH because the truth is told here and no one owns the people who run it.
double post
but have no fear. Barron's is here!
European Trader: French Banks Under Fire
French bank stocks are being battered by the inability of euro-zone officials to end the region's debt crisis. But while more downside risk remains, these shares look like bargains for patient -- and brave -- investors, Barron's says.
I know a Japanese Man who was patient waiting to get his money back. They Buried him last Month.
Tis a bargain for a reason. In this case I would quote "discretion will be the better part of valor"
barron's...meh...
Off topic. Firefox 6 seems ( tight) 2 breakdowns. I like the tools. Rock on Firefox!
A short term bounce due to short covering is likely in the cards.
time123
admin at http://invetrics.com
Wonderful post! This is very useful to many readers like me. Being a student, I am requiring myself to read articles more often and your writing just caught my interest. Thank you so much!
000-153 exam questions
000-280 exam questions
000-977 guide
000-978 exam questions
000-979 exam questions
117-101 guide
117-102 study guide
156-215.70 study guide