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Net Net: Less Than 2% From Joining The Rest Of The World In A Fresh Bear Market

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The week is finally over, and the numbers are in: after narrowly avoiding the "bear market" two weeks ago when we dipped by 19.63%, or about two ticks away from the dreaded 20% correction, the subsequent dead cat bounce fabricated in no small part courtesy of Europe's unprecedented intervention in all markets, both bond and stock, has ended, and we are back to being under 2% away from reentering a Bear Market (and closing at the Lows of the Day). That however will not be the end of the world: as the chart below shows America will actually be the last major market to enter join the Bear party, so little shame there. As the second chart from Rosenberg today shows all the developed countries plus all the BRICs are already there. We expect an ongoing selloff into the last week of August (no need to remind what happens then), at which point the market may get a surprise or two. In the meantime, we depart with Rosie's words: "the US economy is slipping into recession, Europe is as well, and HP served up a reminder that this earnings season has not been the slam-dunk positive reporting period posted in the prior eight quarters. But disciplined investors who took our advice should not be feeling much pain at all." Who laughs last again?

Global bear market:

 

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Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:07 | 1578679 Paul Krugman
Paul Krugman's picture

Platinum is going to break out here boys and girls.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:14 | 1578711 Boston
Boston's picture

Hope so.  I bought at 1,700 a couple of weeks ago.

That said, I plan on buying down every 100......if the opportunity arises.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:31 | 1578775 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

platinum is principally an industrial metal. demand for platinum will slump as the global economy tanks. its secondary function as a precious metal will keep it from falling. but gold — the hedge against everything — will outperform platinum, drastically.

http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/10/how-high-will-gold-go/

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:12 | 1579277 Boston
Boston's picture

No doubt. I own a LOT more gold than platinum, which I own simply for some PM diversification and for convergence.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:19 | 1579788 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Given the scarcity of platinum I find that hard to believe.  I don't own any platinum myself but I think people will always pay premium for it.  That said, since it's almost 1:1 with gold, I think platinum is a good buy.  Personally, I plan on taking some physical silver off the market this weekend. :p

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 08:27 | 1580694 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

One fact keeps me and mine focused on gold ( and silver ); the central banks around the world were net sellers of gold until about two to three years ago, now they are ALL net buyers of gold, slowly steadily patiently buying gold.  Probably has already been decided that gold will be the de facto reserve currency by TPTB. Good luck with platinum, I will stick with following the money of the sociopaths while they rape and pillage anyone saving fiat, or anyone trying to 'invest' .   

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:57 | 1578965 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture


The same author at the globe and mail that was attempting to discredit Zero Hedge is at it again. This time he makes a weak case and calls Zero Hedge an Oddball. Check it out, support your independant alternative media. Spread the word.

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/is-zero-hedge-looking-at-the-wrong-numbers/article2135532/

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:48 | 1579196 Scisco
Scisco's picture

A very simple rebuttal to that article, AAA MBS in 2005.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:19 | 1579298 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Oddballs? Us? Nooooooo way!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 19:01 | 1579408 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

In a world full of lies, deceit, and ignorance, it is a compliment to be called an oddball

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 19:24 | 1579490 mendigo
mendigo's picture

actually in a backhanded way he is acknowledging the contribution of zerohedge in provoking discussion widely in important circles and takes zerohedge to task on some analysis while acknowledge the vaildity of the points made. he is acknowledge tyler as a force to be rekonned (sp?) with global. the power of what tyler is putting out there is incredible and probably not without personal risk

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:24 | 1579800 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

cool, I read through the comments. It was mixed

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:13 | 1579280 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Its called LATINUM u peon! And "my name is QUARK." Now be a good girl and give me an ear rub.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:08 | 1578683 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"Rosie, or the last laugh."  (PhD dissertation title for future economics students).

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:44 | 1579177 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

There will be no future.

And the 2% to go stat is maybe somewhat less important than these:

Dec 31, 2009 close was 1115.  We are 8 points away from losing not just all of 2011's gain, but all of 2010's too.

And have a look at Brent at $108.  The spread is now $26.

I'm sorry but that's just insane.  The world cannot function on $108 oil and even if Libya comes back online . . . 2008's spike occurred with Libya at full production.

There's not enough anymore and never will be again.  A lot of people are going to die, and soon.

[edit] Make that 109.  Brent up afterhours before the weekend.  The spread is about $27 (that's up from ZERO, repeat, ZERO in December]

 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:07 | 1579265 rocker
rocker's picture

The trading desk at Godman Shafts, JPMorque, Shittybank and WeelsFagos always pump the price before Labor Day.

It is them doing their good will for Americans.   And they wonder why Banksters are hated.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:09 | 1578685 DeweyLeon
DeweyLeon's picture

Back to DOW 10,000 once again.

Sisyphus market, (but this time maybe the rock just keeps rolling down)

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 19:31 | 1579513 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

May the rock roll to zero because on a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.  Sisyphus got Syphilis from Bernaked.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:09 | 1578688 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Monday morning 2% will be 10%

Cheers

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:09 | 1578689 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

And..Bidless into the close. This looks orchestrated into Jackson Hole to get some free Bennies and favorable language. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:14 | 1578715 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

10-4, this looks contrived to get the Bernank to save the day

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:26 | 1578763 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

Exactly. And don't forget that the Treasury had to deal with $600 Billion in Treasuries this quarter, as reported here back in May on ZH. This is not hurting that effort whatsoever. Perfect timing all around, I'd say.

 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:10 | 1578693 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Have to have another 8-10% to the downside or the Bernank will simply give a Lewinsky speech in Jackson Hole (aka-Lip Service).

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:50 | 1578927 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

LOL!

 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:50 | 1579201 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You guys are not thinking this through.

Bernanke took the job to do what he felt was best for America.  He sat down and he read the mandate documents and saw that he was to control inflation and control unemployment.

The textbooks say buy bonds to flood liquidity when economic activity is weak, and there is no crushing inflation, which was the state of affairs in September last year.  So he did QE2.

But he sees Q1 GDP this year, right in the middle of QE2, at 0.4%.  He's a brilliant guy and he sees that, and he sees the oil spike in Brent, and he sees food prices.  He knows QE2 did not help.

He won't QE.  He had 3 dissents in just putting out loose money language stating 2 years ZIRP.  He'll have 5 dissents if he tries to print more and then he'd have to resign.

I don't see QE coming.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:09 | 1579272 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Did I read somewhere that the Bernank felt that the depression could have been avoided had they at the time just stimulated or printed "one more time"?   I think he prints out of a believe that,  just like then, he needs to, "just one more time"  inflation/politics be damned.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:29 | 1579812 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

The Feds balace sheet is big enough that interest can be pooled and thrown back at treasuries

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:46 | 1579859 Man Bear Pig
Man Bear Pig's picture

You mean to tell me that Ben Bernanke, the supreme ruler of the dollar, is going to take a moral stance for the greater good? He has the choice to allow debt to default, in essence allowing TRILLIONS of HIS dollars to evaporate in the hands of the most powerful people in the world; or, he can bail out the debtors so that his masters are paid (thus avoiding their wrath). I think you underestimate the magnitude of the political pressure for him to act against his better judgment, not to mention the bribes and kickbacks. I definitely don't envy the guy, but I sure do wish he'd grow a spine. He should resign if he can't say "no"... that is assuming, as you do, that his conscience actually exists...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:10 | 1578694 Waffen
Waffen's picture

I will be laughing when its raining bankers on wallstreet.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:15 | 1578716 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Isn't it obvious by now that the world needs more BennyBucks? Why do we have to go down further?  Just to spite the Robotraders of the world?  C'mon have some mercy.  

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:21 | 1578746 maxmad
maxmad's picture

it is because Benny loves you, that you need to suffer more!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:16 | 1578723 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Correct Tyler no pain,just gain........And thank you.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:16 | 1578727 My Days Are Get...
My Days Are Getting Fewer's picture

Personal record high for me today.  A well diversified portfolio: gold + silver + 2 gold miners + a little US cash.  All my friends think I am nuts.  Thank you Tyler, Jesse, Dan Norcini and JS.  Best collective advice ever.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:17 | 1578729 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Benron has enjoyed the assist from Robo thr momos and the all-around dip buyers of the last two years. Now Benron is going to enjoy fleecing those dip buyers.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:17 | 1578730 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

"But disciplined investors who took our advice should not be feeling much pain at all."

 

Tyler, all my three accounts are green today. One account gained 20% since beginning of the crash.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:13 | 1579274 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mteubkwOEn4&feature=

25% drop equals QE3..

my gold is up 6%+ for the week.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:17 | 1578732 JohnFrodo
JohnFrodo's picture

They are going to slag ZH on Canada's top talk radio station at 4.16

http://www.newstalk1010.com/

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 02:08 | 1580375 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

All will promptly be forgotten when TSHTF in Canada, because, after all, "No one saw it coming!"

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:17 | 1578733 Peak Everything
Peak Everything's picture

Why does everyone including ZH refer to this as a recession? It's not a recession, it's a depression of epic proportions.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:21 | 1578743 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

You can even call it a soft patch.

But if you slip on it, you can still break your neck.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:45 | 1578909 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

If you're working, it's a recession.  If you aren't, it's a depression.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:37 | 1579162 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

And if you are on Food Stamps, its probably a Depression.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 19:09 | 1579431 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Some people have been on welfare for decades

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:15 | 1580106 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

A five or six million maybe. But there are 45.8M on food stamps.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:17 | 1578734 caerus
caerus's picture

U-S-A! U-S-A!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:19 | 1578738 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I got out arround New Year. The first month I was kind of regretting it and some people called me chicken for doing so.

Those who called me chicken are now down 30 to 40% this year.

I bought a shitload of silver these last few years. A lot of people didn't see the point in doing that either.

Yeah.... it's pretty clear to never follow mainstream when you invest. It's better to follow "the whacko's" ;)

 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:36 | 1578831 PhattyBuoy
PhattyBuoy's picture

We are all "whackos" here ...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:59 | 1578979 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Yes, me too.  They went up a little bit and a couple of times I kicked myself I'd sold too soon.  I still like the names I was holding, but they have all declined between 15 and 40% since then.  

I remember before the tech crash, there were guys on the trading floor who'd made millions - we had one guy who was trading support who'd made about $2mm and it was hard to get the guy to process deal tickets, because he'd just stare at his portfolio all day.  When things started to fall, we told him to sell, but he was convinced there was a bounce coming, but it never did.  

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:43 | 1579365 Silver-Is-Better
Silver-Is-Better's picture

Yep follow the wacko's. Did the same thing as you did. Talked to my friends and only 1 guy out of many bought any silver at all and no gold.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 19:25 | 1579492 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

The definition of insanity always has been, and always will be, controlled by those in power.

Now consider that the top guns are sociopaths. The levers of power always seem to attract those types, and we have a plethora of them these days.

I'll take the "whackos" instead any day.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:19 | 1578740 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

hat tip to all folks who went home long stocks this weekend. more courage than a skydiver.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:20 | 1578741 ironymonger
ironymonger's picture

The chart seems to be missing the some of the asian markets, KOSPI, HANG, etc.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:32 | 1578803 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

ZH on the frontline B!tchez - good job to Dr. Richard Head for the dirty undercover work - too bad they didn't reference you in the article Brother

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:36 | 1578833 caerus
caerus's picture

scoop bitchez!

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 10:19 | 1580836 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I don't read Huff Post or talkingpointsmemo or any other site that's steeped in ideological stupid. Having said that, ZH will always be at the forefront of truth in reporting.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:22 | 1578748 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

My portfolie is shiny and bright, some 45% in two days, precious metals excluded. Why? Because I constantly listen to the whackos... Thanks, Tyler.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:23 | 1578756 razorthin
razorthin's picture

More like a middle-aged secular bear

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:25 | 1578759 max2205
max2205's picture

Down 2,000 Dow points on Monday and Ben Bernaclekledum can start the new bull run to 20,000....bet on it

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:32 | 1578770 razorthin
razorthin's picture

It will take a DOW AT the 2,000 level to wring out enough excess for such a run.  Otherwise it will fail at the 200 DMA.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:30 | 1578781 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

Everyone on this site is going to eat shit in 2 weeks when Obama gets back from vacation and reads from the teleprompter his master plan to save the economy.  Good thing everything is in such great shape and running so smoothly that the world should have no problem waiting for his triumphant return to DC and the golden words he will read to all of us.  /sarc off.

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-set-beyond-1-5-trillion-budget-cuts-130642669.html 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:33 | 1579145 Mongrel
Mongrel's picture

You're on this site--does that mean you'll be eating shit too? Will it be in a sandwich?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:52 | 1578939 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Classic fron the dot.com era....

http://www.bobrivers.com/#v8458c7

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:55 | 1578950 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

The very large majority believes QE3 is coming, and next week's Jackson Hole conference is the time it will be announced.  This feels like a crowded trade, and it makes me think that Bernanke will not announce any sort of QE program.

If that's the case, look out below because this market is pricing in QE and there will be a lot of disappointed people if big Ben doesn't come through.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:05 | 1579001 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I've thought about that too, but think they're still going to do something. Obama needs the fake bump, the Keynesians are tired of being laughed at, somebody's got to buy the bonds, and Bernanke is too wimpy to resist being told what to do by the squids.  It's all they got.

 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:46 | 1579371 Clearly_Irrational
Clearly_Irrational's picture

My bet is that he'll announce something, but that it won't be QE3.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:56 | 1578958 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

 

"Looking good, Billy Ray!"

"Feeling good, Lewis!"


 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 16:57 | 1578968 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Is Rosie a bull or bear now? Last I read he was bull, has he turned again?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 02:16 | 1580376 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Darth Vadar:  "Come Rosie, give yourself to the dark side."  :>D

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:04 | 1578995 johnjb32
johnjb32's picture

This is really must see video:

Michael C. Ruppert calls upon the world's artistic and musical leaders to take part in the global generational revolution taking place right now.  He pulls no punches as is apparent in the title, "SAY MY FU**ING NAME" ...

http://goo.gl/2vFgp

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:09 | 1579027 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Thanks, John.  I like Ruppert. here's a link to sign up for his website:

http://www.collapsenet.com/262.html

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 17:05 | 1579003 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

I hung in waaay too long on SRS and VXX and suffered the reverse split.  Good to see a bit of live in them this week.  I don't know if I'll ever get even, but needless to say for my "portfolio" we're heading in the right direction...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:17 | 1579293 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

Thank you to whoever recommended shorting CRE and said SPG was overvalued. Making money on me puts, I think I'm gonna ride it out a bit longer.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 18:29 | 1579328 Jovil
Jovil's picture

Living through a currency devaluation and how to cope

I was managing an American subsidiary of a successful large US Company in Mexico. It had been a financial turnaround for our team. Cash flow had accumulated in our bank in Mexico and corporate didn’t want the money repatriated to the US. Although we had already paid a 35% income tax to the Mexican government, we would have to pay an additional 30% exit tax to repatriate the money. In addition, we would have to pay high fees for the peso/dollar exchange, in order to make the transfer. The company wanted to expand our successful business and so we decided to keep the money in Mexican pesos to be used for further expansion.

 

One morning, as my wife and I were on a trip driving on the highway, we heard a national message from the President of Mexico in 1976, Luis Echevarria, one of the most corrupt presidents in Mexican history. “It is a lie that we are going to devalue the peso,” he said.

 

http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/08/13/living-through-a-curren...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 19:04 | 1579416 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 So? Does the 100 cross the 200 and 50 and park us in the 1050 support level?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:21 | 1579946 Man Bear Pig
Man Bear Pig's picture

it's funny... right after the market started to tank, several people i had been warning asked where i get my news/info. naturally i told them ZH. i'm thinking that i can't be the only one this happened to... could it be why ZH is making so many MSM appearances recently?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 10:16 | 1580829 RSloane
RSloane's picture

The MSM will eventually try to shit all over ZH because the truth is told here and no one owns the people who run it.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 10:17 | 1580830 RSloane
RSloane's picture

double post

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:10 | 1580081 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

but have no fear.  Barron's is here!

 

European Trader: French Banks Under Fire

French bank stocks are being battered by the inability of euro-zone officials to end the region's debt crisis. But while more downside risk remains, these shares look like bargains for patient -- and brave -- investors, Barron's says.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 00:43 | 1580290 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

I know a Japanese Man who was patient waiting to get his money back. They Buried him last Month.

Tis a bargain for a reason. In this case I would quote "discretion will be the better part of valor" 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 13:50 | 1581480 caerus
caerus's picture

barron's...meh...

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 00:29 | 1580276 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Off topic. Firefox 6 seems ( tight) 2 breakdowns.  I like the tools. Rock on Firefox!

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 00:00 | 1584995 time123
time123's picture

A short term bounce due to short covering is likely in the cards.

time123

admin at http://invetrics.com

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