Net Net: Less Than 2% From Joining The Rest Of The World In A Fresh Bear Market
The week is finally over, and the numbers are in: after narrowly avoiding the "bear market" two weeks ago when we dipped by 19.63%, or about two ticks away from the dreaded 20% correction, the subsequent dead cat bounce fabricated in no small part courtesy of Europe's unprecedented intervention in all markets, both bond and stock, has ended, and we are back to being under 2% away from reentering a Bear Market (and closing at the Lows of the Day). That however will not be the end of the world: as the chart below shows America will actually be the last major market to enter join the Bear party, so little shame there. As the second chart from Rosenberg today shows all the developed countries plus all the BRICs are already there. We expect an ongoing selloff into the last week of August (no need to remind what happens then), at which point the market may get a surprise or two. In the meantime, we depart with Rosie's words: "the US economy is slipping into recession, Europe is as well, and HP served up a reminder that this earnings season has not been the slam-dunk positive reporting period posted in the prior eight quarters. But disciplined investors who took our advice should not be feeling much pain at all." Who laughs last again?
Global bear market: