Net Net: Less Than 2% From Joining The Rest Of The World In A Fresh Bear Market

Tyler Durden's picture

The week is finally over, and the numbers are in: after narrowly avoiding the "bear market" two weeks ago when we dipped by 19.63%, or about two ticks away from the dreaded 20% correction, the subsequent dead cat bounce fabricated in no small part courtesy of Europe's unprecedented intervention in all markets, both bond and stock, has ended, and we are back to being under 2% away from reentering a Bear Market (and closing at the Lows of the Day). That however will not be the end of the world: as the chart below shows America will actually be the last major market to enter join the Bear party, so little shame there. As the second chart from Rosenberg today shows all the developed countries plus all the BRICs are already there. We expect an ongoing selloff into the last week of August (no need to remind what happens then), at which point the market may get a surprise or two. In the meantime, we depart with Rosie's words: "the US economy is slipping into recession, Europe is as well, and HP served up a reminder that this earnings season has not been the slam-dunk positive reporting period posted in the prior eight quarters. But disciplined investors who took our advice should not be feeling much pain at all." Who laughs last again?

Global bear market:

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Paul Krugman's picture

Platinum is going to break out here boys and girls.

Boston's picture

Hope so.  I bought at 1,700 a couple of weeks ago.

That said, I plan on buying down every 100......if the opportunity arises.

spiral_eyes's picture

platinum is principally an industrial metal. demand for platinum will slump as the global economy tanks. its secondary function as a precious metal will keep it from falling. but gold — the hedge against everything — will outperform platinum, drastically.

Boston's picture

No doubt. I own a LOT more gold than platinum, which I own simply for some PM diversification and for convergence.

Troll Magnet's picture

Given the scarcity of platinum I find that hard to believe.  I don't own any platinum myself but I think people will always pay premium for it.  That said, since it's almost 1:1 with gold, I think platinum is a good buy.  Personally, I plan on taking some physical silver off the market this weekend. :p

SamuelMaverick's picture

One fact keeps me and mine focused on gold ( and silver ); the central banks around the world were net sellers of gold until about two to three years ago, now they are ALL net buyers of gold, slowly steadily patiently buying gold.  Probably has already been decided that gold will be the de facto reserve currency by TPTB. Good luck with platinum, I will stick with following the money of the sociopaths while they rape and pillage anyone saving fiat, or anyone trying to 'invest' .   

Silver Bug's picture

The same author at the globe and mail that was attempting to discredit Zero Hedge is at it again. This time he makes a weak case and calls Zero Hedge an Oddball. Check it out, support your independant alternative media. Spread the word.

Scisco's picture

A very simple rebuttal to that article, AAA MBS in 2005.

disabledvet's picture

Oddballs? Us? Nooooooo way!

sun tzu's picture

In a world full of lies, deceit, and ignorance, it is a compliment to be called an oddball

mendigo's picture

actually in a backhanded way he is acknowledging the contribution of zerohedge in provoking discussion widely in important circles and takes zerohedge to task on some analysis while acknowledge the vaildity of the points made. he is acknowledge tyler as a force to be rekonned (sp?) with global. the power of what tyler is putting out there is incredible and probably not without personal risk

Spitzer's picture

cool, I read through the comments. It was mixed

disabledvet's picture

Its called LATINUM u peon! And "my name is QUARK." Now be a good girl and give me an ear rub.

slaughterer's picture

"Rosie, or the last laugh."  (PhD dissertation title for future economics students).

CrashisOptimistic's picture

There will be no future.

And the 2% to go stat is maybe somewhat less important than these:

Dec 31, 2009 close was 1115.  We are 8 points away from losing not just all of 2011's gain, but all of 2010's too.

And have a look at Brent at $108.  The spread is now $26.

I'm sorry but that's just insane.  The world cannot function on $108 oil and even if Libya comes back online . . . 2008's spike occurred with Libya at full production.

There's not enough anymore and never will be again.  A lot of people are going to die, and soon.

[edit] Make that 109.  Brent up afterhours before the weekend.  The spread is about $27 (that's up from ZERO, repeat, ZERO in December]


rocker's picture

The trading desk at Godman Shafts, JPMorque, Shittybank and WeelsFagos always pump the price before Labor Day.

It is them doing their good will for Americans.   And they wonder why Banksters are hated.

DeweyLeon's picture

Back to DOW 10,000 once again.

Sisyphus market, (but this time maybe the rock just keeps rolling down)

I am more equal than others's picture

May the rock roll to zero because on a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.  Sisyphus got Syphilis from Bernaked.

Irish66's picture

Monday morning 2% will be 10%


John McCloy's picture

And..Bidless into the close. This looks orchestrated into Jackson Hole to get some free Bennies and favorable language. 

Josh Randall's picture

10-4, this looks contrived to get the Bernank to save the day

Eternal Student's picture

Exactly. And don't forget that the Treasury had to deal with $600 Billion in Treasuries this quarter, as reported here back in May on ZH. This is not hurting that effort whatsoever. Perfect timing all around, I'd say.


johngaltfla's picture

Have to have another 8-10% to the downside or the Bernank will simply give a Lewinsky speech in Jackson Hole (aka-Lip Service).

CrashisOptimistic's picture

You guys are not thinking this through.

Bernanke took the job to do what he felt was best for America.  He sat down and he read the mandate documents and saw that he was to control inflation and control unemployment.

The textbooks say buy bonds to flood liquidity when economic activity is weak, and there is no crushing inflation, which was the state of affairs in September last year.  So he did QE2.

But he sees Q1 GDP this year, right in the middle of QE2, at 0.4%.  He's a brilliant guy and he sees that, and he sees the oil spike in Brent, and he sees food prices.  He knows QE2 did not help.

He won't QE.  He had 3 dissents in just putting out loose money language stating 2 years ZIRP.  He'll have 5 dissents if he tries to print more and then he'd have to resign.

I don't see QE coming.

scatterbrains's picture

Did I read somewhere that the Bernank felt that the depression could have been avoided had they at the time just stimulated or printed "one more time"?   I think he prints out of a believe that,  just like then, he needs to, "just one more time"  inflation/politics be damned.

Spitzer's picture

The Feds balace sheet is big enough that interest can be pooled and thrown back at treasuries

Man Bear Pig's picture

You mean to tell me that Ben Bernanke, the supreme ruler of the dollar, is going to take a moral stance for the greater good? He has the choice to allow debt to default, in essence allowing TRILLIONS of HIS dollars to evaporate in the hands of the most powerful people in the world; or, he can bail out the debtors so that his masters are paid (thus avoiding their wrath). I think you underestimate the magnitude of the political pressure for him to act against his better judgment, not to mention the bribes and kickbacks. I definitely don't envy the guy, but I sure do wish he'd grow a spine. He should resign if he can't say "no"... that is assuming, as you do, that his conscience actually exists...

Waffen's picture

I will be laughing when its raining bankers on wallstreet.

slaughterer's picture

Isn't it obvious by now that the world needs more BennyBucks? Why do we have to go down further?  Just to spite the Robotraders of the world?  C'mon have some mercy.  

maxmad's picture

it is because Benny loves you, that you need to suffer more!

Cult of Criminality's picture

Correct Tyler no pain,just gain........And thank you.

My Days Are Getting Fewer's picture

Personal record high for me today.  A well diversified portfolio: gold + silver + 2 gold miners + a little US cash.  All my friends think I am nuts.  Thank you Tyler, Jesse, Dan Norcini and JS.  Best collective advice ever.

Cursive's picture

Benron has enjoyed the assist from Robo thr momos and the all-around dip buyers of the last two years. Now Benron is going to enjoy fleecing those dip buyers.

YesWeKahn's picture

"But disciplined investors who took our advice should not be feeling much pain at all."


Tyler, all my three accounts are green today. One account gained 20% since beginning of the crash.

JohnFrodo's picture

They are going to slag ZH on Canada's top talk radio station at 4.16

StychoKiller's picture

All will promptly be forgotten when TSHTF in Canada, because, after all, "No one saw it coming!"

Peak Everything's picture

Why does everyone including ZH refer to this as a recession? It's not a recession, it's a depression of epic proportions.

Sudden Debt's picture

You can even call it a soft patch.

But if you slip on it, you can still break your neck.

NOTaREALmerican's picture

If you're working, it's a recession.  If you aren't, it's a depression.

Pay Day Today's picture

And if you are on Food Stamps, its probably a Depression.

sun tzu's picture

Some people have been on welfare for decades

Pay Day Today's picture

A five or six million maybe. But there are 45.8M on food stamps.

Sudden Debt's picture

I got out arround New Year. The first month I was kind of regretting it and some people called me chicken for doing so.

Those who called me chicken are now down 30 to 40% this year.

I bought a shitload of silver these last few years. A lot of people didn't see the point in doing that either.

Yeah.... it's pretty clear to never follow mainstream when you invest. It's better to follow "the whacko's" ;)


PhattyBuoy's picture

We are all "whackos" here ...

A Man without Qualities's picture

Yes, me too.  They went up a little bit and a couple of times I kicked myself I'd sold too soon.  I still like the names I was holding, but they have all declined between 15 and 40% since then.  

I remember before the tech crash, there were guys on the trading floor who'd made millions - we had one guy who was trading support who'd made about $2mm and it was hard to get the guy to process deal tickets, because he'd just stare at his portfolio all day.  When things started to fall, we told him to sell, but he was convinced there was a bounce coming, but it never did.  

Silver-Is-Better's picture

Yep follow the wacko's. Did the same thing as you did. Talked to my friends and only 1 guy out of many bought any silver at all and no gold.

Eternal Student's picture

The definition of insanity always has been, and always will be, controlled by those in power.

Now consider that the top guns are sociopaths. The levers of power always seem to attract those types, and we have a plethora of them these days.

I'll take the "whackos" instead any day.