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With Netflix Back To 52 Week Lows, Here Are The Biggest Losers

Tyler Durden's picture




 

That didn't take long. After touching a ridiculous price of $304.79 back on July 13, the collapse in the stock price of Netflix in the 2 short months since to fresh 52 week lows has been nothing short of breathtaking, and demonstrates just how effectively one can destroy their company (and also confirms that "value investors" with zero conviction in their calls are not even worth the entrance fee of their periodic soiree gatherings). Below we demonstrate who the biggest losers are in the past 10 weeks, based on the top 25 holders as disclosed in their 13F filings as of June 30. Our advice to Apple longs: take particular note of what happens when the hedge fund groupthink hotel decides to exit a burning theater stock in less than orderly fashion. And of particular insult to injury note, UBS Global Asset Management has lost $115 million in NFLX since the stock highs just over 2 months ago. Which Gamma 2 or Vega 666 trader will get blamed for that particular debacle?

 

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Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:09 | 1688536 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

They bought for their clients. The ultimate losers are stupid people trusting these funds.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:22 | 1688579 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Fidelity always seems to find itself in these lists -- and very near the top.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:57 | 1688744 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Do they have any convenient Nigerian interns to blame?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:10 | 1688542 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Tilson should have held.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:10 | 1688543 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

I don't feel well...I bought 10 shares @ $300

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:18 | 1688567 Magnix
Magnix's picture

Well, what are you waiting for! Sell them!

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:24 | 1688602 duo
duo's picture

Denninger had me ready to short NFLX a couple of months ago.  Having recently been burned shorting AAPL at $360, I decided to sit this one out.  See what happens when you drive the shorts away?  Free fall!

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:13 | 1688548 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Why equivalent? Warrants?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:19 | 1688555 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Morgan Stanley is marked for death, GS must be salivating...

OMG, I just took a look at their chart and it's been a swan dive from 200 to 134 and counting.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:14 | 1688557 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

Aaaaand it's gone

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:15 | 1688559 downtownshuter
downtownshuter's picture

How can this be considered a hit against "value" investors?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:18 | 1688573 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Because they're all "buy" and no "hold".

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 13:41 | 1689434 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Agreed, NFLX is pure growth not value 

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:17 | 1688561 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

I'm not gonna cry for these scumbags at JPMorgan...

JUMP YOU FUCKERS!

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:17 | 1688562 Zeff
Zeff's picture

Darn it, was looking for Paulson in it.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:17 | 1688563 GoldbugVariation
GoldbugVariation's picture

Apple?  Is that the company whose entire business for last 20 years has been based on the vision of one man ... who resigned a few weeks back?  Just sayin...

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:19 | 1688578 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

I believe that this is the last leg run up. Try to short it when it gets to 450. It is basically another phone company. It will be another Nokia.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:43 | 1688684 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Um. I'd be super careful shorting AAPL.

Unlike Netflix (whose business model had a nice run but has no future), Apple has clear daylight in front of it.

Look at Apple's competition in the smart phone and tablet space. Apple makes the vast majority of profits (PROFITS) in the smartphone space, despite having a minority market share. Their competition is in complete and utter disarray. Their obvious main competitor (Google/Android) is the market share leader but MAKES NO PROFIT, and just sunk $16 billion into a doomed acquisition. Samsung is the only competitor who is doing ANYTHING right and they are way behind.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:03 | 1688770 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

"Yeah, well, you know, that's just like your opinion man." - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsogswrH6ck

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:16 | 1688846 pitz
pitz's picture

That's the entire problem -- anything that is touched by Free/Open Source software eventually has the profit driven out of it. How many proprietary Unix vendors still in business? Let's see, Sun gone, check. DEC gone, check. AIX and HP-UX are basically irrelevant, check. SCO gone, check. Get the drift?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:17 | 1688853 adr
adr's picture

Apple has plenty of profit but holds no assets.  I mean really, what is Apple's building worth? That is just about all they own outside the myriad of patents they stole.Apple is just a paper company in the end so its value can plummet just like Netflix.

The iPhone will die eventually and so will the immense profit as the competition continues to erode Apple's marketshare. Why do you think Apple's legal division is working overtime.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 14:37 | 1689623 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Buckaroo,

Aapl is up $70. since Steve Jobs Stepped down as CEO.  From $350 to $420.

Nflx is down about $100. since the pre announcement of lower subs.  Yet, they did say that it would not  affect their margins that much.

I am not really sure about Aapl at this price with Steve Jobs gone.  I do think that they will do ok for a while but without the Guru I do not know.  Without Jobs at the announcement of the new IPod 5, I am not sure how it will be received. Plus, what about new innovations without Jobs?  He was the innovator.

I personally just do not think that without Jobs the stock is worth anywhere near where it is trading.  All I think it is all about squeezing shorts to bail out the Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds.  Once people forget about Aapl it will slowly melt down every day until it is a pittance of what it is today.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 13:25 | 1693210 pitz
pitz's picture

Jobs the innovator?  Hardly.  He wasn't even a very good leader according to the guys I know at Apple.  If anything, the stock went up because of his departure, not in spite of it.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:18 | 1688566 Zeff
Zeff's picture

More pains for UBS! Oh sweet!!

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:19 | 1688580 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Is our patience paying off, so far today, you bet.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:22 | 1688588 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Back the truck up and buy buy buy! Sorry thought I was Cramer for a minute. Scared me.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:22 | 1688595 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

netflix just thought they were in apple's shoes and that they could charge any price they wanted. Truth of the matter is, netflix was just an alternative for redbox and hulu. They raised their price to much and the people responded. Same would happen if redbox doubled their movie rental price.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:37 | 1688655 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Face it, how Netflix ever got to be a $50.00 stock is beyond me.

Their programming sucks, they get new releases 30 late,and their Roku/TV streaming pile of movie choices sucks.

Blockbuster got the new releases 30 days before Netflix(maybe still do), and their in bankruptcy.

Go figure.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:46 | 1688694 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Agreed.  I was a Netflix member for a while but I cancelled because the content was terrible.  Nothing like watching a "new release" that came out 3 months ago.

Blockbuster's collapse was due to terrible management.  Seriously, it took them 10+ years to try to get involved in the same business as Netflix.  Had Blockbuster seen the writing on the wall ten years ago and started their DVD mail service then, they'd be a powerhouse right now.  Assuming that they had capitalized on that opp, can you imagine how strong a company they'd be if they had streaming services too?

Alas, they thought technology was going to stay in the 1980s forever. 

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:25 | 1688605 Below Zero
Below Zero's picture

Nitflix is having a 50 percent off sale. I will wait until they have a liquidation sale on their new image called Quackster. 

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:25 | 1688609 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

why are Lulumon, LinkedIn, or OpenTable not dropping like a rock?  The P/E on those companies are ridiculuous.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:52 | 1688710 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

LNKD? small float and an already huge short interest. probably support from covering shorts after the last leg down. I tried to play it but it's tricky as it doesn't generally move the way you'd think.  Their earnings were predictable and moved it lower, other than that it's off the wall sometimes. 

 

long term trend is undeniably lower on LNKD though...when Nov rolls around and the lock-up period is over i expect to see a solid downward trend the next 12 months. Probably towards 40.  

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:26 | 1688611 spartan117
spartan117's picture

That's ok, we still got Chipotle at $300+!!!

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:33 | 1688635 monopoly
monopoly's picture

NEXT!  CMG?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:35 | 1688642 unununium
unununium's picture

Surprised not to see Dodge & Cox on the list.  They always seem to have a piece of the biggest losers like FNM.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:41 | 1688676 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Why Hastings hasn't been shown the door yet is a mystery to me and everyone else. He woke up one day about 6 months ago and swallowed a stupid pill. Guess the untenability of his business model finally caught up to him.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:48 | 1688701 digalert
digalert's picture

YRC brought to you by Teamster union,

achieved zero today.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:51 | 1688714 Raymond K Hassel
Raymond K Hassel's picture

How clueless and desperate are the NetFlix douchebags to spin out Qwikster without attempting to secure the Twitter account name first?  Makes me think they are in a huge rush, for really bad reasons. 

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:10 | 1688813 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

Yeah.. And I can't shake Napster from my mind when I think of Quickster. What idiot picked that name? Had to be a rush... I mean, not even QuickFlix or something similar? Talk about a breakdown... I'm sure they won't fire the douchebag CEO until it's way too late.  

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:51 | 1688717 laserjock
laserjock's picture

So you're assuming these companies held NFLX all the way down.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:35 | 1688942 hetch214
hetch214's picture

and assuming some of the HFs aren't boxed.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:57 | 1688740 ItsDanger
ItsDanger's picture

Combine poor & erratic video quality, terrible audio, wait times, unimpressive selection, content costs and competition (exisitng and ease of entry), NFLX was an easy short.  Any fund manager that was long this stock, other than for a trade, should be fired immediately.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:57 | 1688745 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

terrible analogy with Apple, NFLX needs to drop another 25% plus and you can start comparing numbers, not to mention the companies are completely different, you were dogging apple when it was at $200 bucks a share, gold and Apple have been the two best positions throughout this entire crisis, both should be respected

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 12:03 | 1689034 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

being wrong sucks doesn't it

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 12:24 | 1689137 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

The point is that herd behavior has nothing to do with fundamentals. Apple is indeed a cash flow positive company (for how long? who knows - it sure does have innovative products for now). The noted issue however, is that as pointed out recently, more hedge funds own Apple than any other stock. And just as the HF exodus in NFLX has been vicious, it will eventually come to Apple, just as it will come to gold. Remember: when the margin call comes, you always sell your winners first.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:57 | 1688746 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Someone is manipulating the market right now. They first pumps apple to stabilize the indices, then pumps the whole market higher. Pretty soon, this game will have to stop when APPLE reaches 1/2 trillion market cap

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:58 | 1688749 Putty
Putty's picture

Thanks Zerohedge.  Great reminder to cancel my subscription.  Done.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:58 | 1688751 J C Bider
J C Bider's picture

As goes the captain so goes the ship.

Stupid at the top -> Ship hits the reef.

It's time to start shooting some CEOs

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:04 | 1688772 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

I think you're right.... However it's not just being stupid, (there's plenty of CEOs playing the guessing game) it's demonstrating that stupidity. Full Retard.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:09 | 1688810 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

GReat stuff Tyler. Unfortunately I had to cover my shorts sooner.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:16 | 1688843 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

How does one show who the biggest losers are in the past 10 weeks when measureing from a report dated June 30th? Um... That's more than 10 weeks ago.  (Yeah, I get the list may be stable yet it's a stretch in drama.) 

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:22 | 1688886 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Anyone that thinks a CEO cannot make or break a company by their decisions, and are therefore not worthy of the salaries, need to look no further than Netflix.

 

How much did these two decisions cost Netflix shareholders?  it will probably cost them their company.

 

 

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 13:02 | 1689304 rickadoh
rickadoh's picture

Netflix, Higher Fee's Same ol Videos. They pretty much loaded up a gun, but it backfired.

 

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 13:46 | 1689455 jonan
jonan's picture

qwikster? i think they should have gone with quickflix...can i has a million dollar marketing bonus???

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 14:01 | 1689505 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Suprised they are not supporting the stock.  Unless they are making their losses up on Aapl.

What is interesting is that when Nflx went to the Moon Aapl went down.  Nflx went to about $300.  Aapl went down to about $310.

Now Aapl is going up, and Nflx is going down.  They seem to have been operating in opposite directions.

I am thinking that it is time to short Aapl and buy Nflx.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 18:29 | 1690317 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Da JOOS lost money!!!

Seriously though poor hollywood lost it's pricing power.

Now fuck off and die. And cram a 3d projector straight up your worthless fucking ass while you do it.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 01:17 | 1691235 TheLooza
TheLooza's picture

I got every little piece of that NFLX downward action.  Been my number 1 short since May.  Battled a bit, but it has been very freaking lucrative this week.

 

because I like you guys, I will let you in on a secret, its going to be in double digits within a month.  Bet accordingly.

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