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Netflix RadioShocked
While we were 'trained' in the 70s and 80s on what 'our brain looks like on drugs', it appears we never learned what it looks like when hope is crushed... until today. With Netflix and Radioshack smashed down over 20%, the darlings of momentum, tech, and LBO rumor ping-pong appear to be facing up to a new reality - "this is your portfolio on hope". We can only assume that everyone's favorite newly-standalone investment manager is licking his lips at the 'opportunity'. As a gentle reminder, Radioshack's CDS implies a cumulative 85% probability of default in the next five years (and 27% within a year, and 14% by the holidays).
Radioshack -25%...
and Netflix -21%
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Buy the dip, and the next one, and the next one...
Sad part is, in this algo driven world, buying it now til it fills the gap would be the play to make.
NFLX was always a risky proposition, but the Fed has been especially successful over the years engineering greater fool rallies on junk.
This article in today's financial times tells you how rediculous the situation has become for incumbants and the finance industry.
"Show some real audacity at the Fed"
Just a few of the incredible companies with a copious amount of "virtuous treasure & core value" waiting to be unlocked, bursting forth from the seams, bitchez:
Radioshack (If you want to be robbed by luddites, this is the place)
JC Penney
Groupon
Angie's List
Hardee's
Netflix
Sears Holdings (including Kmart, the store for those with depression)
LULU (it's not a fad, it's a passion)
Priceline (An incredibly innovative company, with stellar proprietary technology, that had Shatner as a spokesperson)
Kayak.com (See Priceline above, because it's different this time, and Frank Reardon will learn this the hard way)
Chipolte Mexican Grill (Nothing says long term success like beans & rice 3x as expensive as Taco Bell)
Jones Soda (c'mon, do I really have to explain this master brewer of sugar, carbonated h20, and artificial colors & flavors?)
Rite-Aid (see Radioshack and Sears Holdings)
Any newly IPO'd company (because these are all real companies, with real products, and dripping with innovation)
Any bank or financial (Because they're all solid with true mark-to-market assets and little exposure to global or national risks)
ETC., YADA-YADA, SO FORTH, AND ON & ON......
LOL
I honestly thought rradioshack was already gone,havent seen a store in over 3 years.
I went in to a rat shack recently when I had some time to kill, and spent a good 20-30 minutes looking for something, anything of interest.
I came up empty.
How this chain continues to exist is a mystery.
I Can Haz Moar TRS-80 Model III?!
You forgot Green Mountain Coffee.
sorry. .but one of these things are not like the other sasame street. CMG. soory its not in that group. leave what you think about the food out of what you think about the company. food is subjective. taco bell is dogshit product
I agree, and I believe that CMG is well positioned to presently grow into a 3000x forward looking P/E and even P/S ratio valuation.
Facebooked?
Yup, FB should be fun tomorrow. FB gets facebooked. And with 268 Million shares (10% of total shares outstanding) being unlocked by the 2nd week of August, we could see the low 20's for this POS.
Oh ths will be an economic commode flush if there ever was one.
Everyone I know that was in on (and got burned by) the dotcom boom, as lower level employees (them that had to wait) will bolt the minute *sorry, nanosecond, if they are HFT fluent* they are able.
Being recently involved with a tech firm and sitting through *ALL* the damned presentations, it was 90% "here's how we're going to flip it" (5-7 years), 5% "here's our partner's great tech history" and 5% (time permitting, usually shortened to a minute or so) of "here's what we are actually doing"
It's all crap. All of it.
caveat emptor.
Anybody heard from RobotTrader last few days? Seems since NFLX and AAPL reported he has been noticeably absent...hmmmmmm. Perhaps he is in the bathroom puking up blood as NFLX heads toward a new all time world record blow torched 52 week low.
he was blathering on today about muni bonds on another story on ZH
Dyed his hair orange and is buying a movie ticket I hear
dang!
http://www.thedailyrash.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/carrot-top.jpg
Actually he is in the bathroom JO&C to the new IBDaily list.
His next stop is scrubbing the shitters at KWN.
I wonder how long it will be before someone finds his body...
20% Of Companies Lie On Earnings Reports, Top Reason Is To Boost Stock Prices http://www.businessinsider.com/study-20-of-companies-lie-earnings-stock-...
I'm shocked!
NO FREAKIN' WAY ! ! ! . . . . . its only 20 % doing it
Hmmm. There goes 1 mom and popper... and another... and another... and another... and another...
Disclosure: Short Edward Jones, MMF, and all Mom & Pop shops.
Slope of Dope?
Freakazoids... RobotTraders... Please report...
I can see BS Bernanke, at the helm of the Fed, fixatively watching the Dow, saying "It can't go down with three rounds of easing in it. Not with three rounds it CAN'T"
http://www.anyclip.com/movies/jaws/3Xcwtm2tthtmb/#!quotes/
I imagine Bernanke has some darker moments where he thinks, "eventually, we are all fucked."
We're going to need a bigger boat!
I wonder how many ZH members actually shop at RadioShack. I rarely ever go there. It doesn't appear they offer any better deals on products that could be bought somewhere else.
I go to Radio Shack half-a-dozen times a year. When you need an electrical wire, connector, gadget, or adapter NOW, they are a terrific resource. The prices aren't great, but they aren't awful, and you don't have to pay for shipping. And they always seem to have what I need.
I would really miss Radio Shack if they went away.
RadioShack does offer convenience when you need those sorts of items ASAP. Their prices aren't great, but I might go there in a pinch if I needed some sort of gadget straightaway. I tend to avoid buying batteries there unless they are a unique type that you can't get right off the shelf somewhere else.
I go there when I need a single $10 hearing aid battery NOW. But 9 times out of 10, I order on ebay 20 hearing aid batteries for $10 with free shipping from HK.
As a geek, I've been using Radio Shack all my life, but seriously, it's amazing they've stayed in business this long: rebooting themselves over and over, burning though capital from fresh suckers over and over.
Agreed. If you need it, they've got it. There's no one to fill the hole. RS should be nationalized and protected.
Interesting ... what kills them is apps (I include online free "apps" like youtube), wireless, proprietary connections (you can only get them from the hardware manufacturer itself, like an iPod cradle), and consumers not generally caring about how anything sounds (I used to buy speaker cable there). They made their living on the obsolescence of consumer technology. USB is now stable and you can hook everything up to that. My flat panel has a single RCA connector (if I squint, I swear there is lettering that says "you so old!")
They screwed themselves when they quit vending components and similar hardware.
Back then, they may not have had tons of big-ticket items, but they had a steady flow of hams, CBers, hobbyists, etc.
I used to shop there fairly often. I really can't remember the last time I set foot in a Radio Shack. It's been several years. But then I rarely buy anything other than groceries now-a-days anyplace but online. Usually Amazon. Now that I think about it I don't go in to any stores anymore. My wife does the grocery shopping so with the exception of the occassional foray into Harbor Freight (got your free flashlight coupon?) I usually wait in the car.
Once a year I get a special button for the starter on the motorcycles I build in my spare time. Then I kick-start them.
Treacherous market, anyone investing in this market has a death wish.
Here's a great stock tip. ROP.
"this is your portfolio on hope"
Bawahahahahahahaha!
White Punks On Hope !!
Radio Shack. The last time I went there I had to dust off the employees. They were busy watching some trash daytime show on a black and white monitor. It ain't what it used to be.
Radio Shack died the day they quit stocking electronic components and concentrated on cell phones. Who does a worse job of selling and servicing cell phones today than Radio Shack? You already know the answer to that question.
When Radio Shack started ignoring electronic components they lost their customer base. Before that happened whenever I needed something to repair or make some sort of electronic device I would stop by and buy it over the counter. When I could no longer do that I made a large order from Mouser and stocked everything Radio Shack used to keep in stock, and more. After that I no longer had to shop at Radio Shack and my repair parts cost at least 75% less. It took me 3 years to recoup the cost of stocking my own parts but today I'm very happy I did it. Radio Shack has lost that customer base forever. I'm surprised they are still in business.
The last dozen times I've been there (in the last 10 years), they've failed to have what I went for about half of the time, At this point, given the internet, I can't imagine ever setting foot in the store again, ever.
Quality and choice on NFLX stinks right now unless you have an IQ of 75 and/or like watching cartoon movies. The streaming is poor also in my experience.
Any idea why Cat is showing such good numbers? Financial manipulations, shovel ready government projects or just actually modest numbers that look great next to prior failures? I don't know enough about all of this but it is confusing to see so many divergent signals.
They don't contribute to damn near everyone on Congress because they like them.
All those 'shovel ready' projects? Look who voted for them and match em up with the heavy equipment donors.
It's almost like, a coincidence, or something.
You got to make it look good so you can unload it to the muppets.
Radioshack: I stopped going there in the 1990s. I don't even know if we have one anymore.
Five years from now, I think we'll be saying the same thing about Facebook.
CIAbook will not be allowed to die. They'll keep burning through OPM in order to add the latest new & improved Skinner Box to the system.
Don't misunderestimate the facade for the reality beneath, as that is what allows it to work uninhibited from scrutiny.
I expect them and a handful of others (Google+ for instance) to become a de facto standard internet id.
Wait and see what happens to Apple, when the word gets out its not going to offer the accessories for their iShite anymore.
Any idea why Cat is showing such good numbers?
Mining equip sales is my guess.
CMG Chipotle Grill is not so hot either ...
P/E does matter
The question is whether this will get the dumbshitsat Netflix to go back to their old model, the one they had before they decided on Seppuku. From the CONSUMER viewpoint, it is just so obvious that yeah the streaming is great but if you dont have ALL the movies then I MUST have the dvd by mail option as well. And I do NOT want to pay full price for both or I want to buy one single service with both capabilities for less than doing them both separately. When they wake up to the consumer reality I will join Netflix again. And I really want to. How they can misunderstand their customer experience so badly baffles me. Do they not use their own service? Too busy listening to some MBA knucklehead about the business side I guess to pay attention to what the needs are are the customer side.
Too bad about Radio Shack. I used to play Reader Rabbit on one of their computers when I was little. My father named the computer "Tex" and there were some other fun games, too. I think he still has it.
Plus, Netflix is a great value for $16 a month. Less than you would spend on 1 meal at a Mexican restaurant and a pitcher or two of margaritas. And some people pay 100 times that $16 for a stupid ounce of gold. I can get over 8 years of movies and TV shows and DVD's for the same price as that one ounce of shiny yellow metal.
Geeesh, cable and satellite are like a $100 a month mostly for stuff you don't watch. And the stuff you do watch like Rizzoli and Isles, and Covert Affairs, and The Closer, and Lifetime are just chugging full of stupid commercials.
Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter