The "Neutron Bomb Of Capital Calculations" And A Kyle Bass Refresher

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Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:16 | 1974564 HedgeAccordingly
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kyle bass loves nickels .. as much as merkel loves to grimmace 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:38 | 1974653 Ahmeexnal
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Tension in the Falklands about to escalate:

Rockhopper Petroleum has unveiled another oil discovery near the Falkland Islands, sending its shares up almost 10pc.


But Argentina isn't the UK's only worry.  Eurozone threatens to boycott UK 2012 London Olympics.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:46 | 1974700 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

Why would anyone want to boycott the Olympics? I hear they give out physical gold & silver to the winners...

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 15:06 | 1975097 redpill
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It drives me nuts in these interviews that they want to force him to describe entire nations'  economies in one sentence so they can rush off to commerical break.  They should either narrow the focus of the discussion or give him time to explain what are some very complex situations. 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 15:28 | 1975230 Bicycle Repairman
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I believe the typical "gold" medal is a gold-plated rubber disc.  They should change the prizes to paper, rock and scissors.  Except for the runners.  Instead of scissors they should get road apples.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 15:48 | 1975336 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

I believe the typical "gold" medal is a gold-plated rubber disc.

Oh... so they manufacture them from the Comex stash then?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 01:26 | 1977625 StychoKiller
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Rubber is more flexible than tungsten.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:45 | 1974691 slaughterer
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Kyle: three trivial questions about the man (since I find nothing to question in his macro view or investment thesis):

1.)  What is that pin he always wears?

2.) Why do most of his answers begin with "So..."

3.) Why do you do interviews with MSM, where they inevitably just want brief views before the commercials?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:48 | 1974707 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

"the pin" looks to me like a Texas Ranger badge to me...

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 15:06 | 1975096 Winston Smith 2009
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"Why do most of his answers begin with "So..."

Because so many of the questions asked so clearly display the ignorant conventional "wisdom" position being taken by the questioner.

In the above interview, I love it where he says the pending default of Japan should be obvious to a kindergärtner, shortly after the interviewer had shown his skepticism of that mathematical fact.  Kyle uses simple math and easily available figures to show what any idiot unimpeded by hopium use should be able to see:  the positions in Europe, Japan and, eventually, the US are untenable and, in fact, both Europe and Japan are in a far worse, totally hopeless position while the US is not (YET).

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:20 | 1974592 GeneMarchbanks
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Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:52 | 1974626 hedgeless_horseman
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Kenny says, "Ireland will do whatever is required to ratify the EU pact."

Wolfe Tone said, " Our independence must be had at all hazards."


Tue, 12/13/2011 - 15:49 | 1975342 CPL
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An old phrase with a renewed interest.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 17:52 | 1976012 falak pema
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Ireland : Either you get shafted by the Brits and their RE banks who got you into this mess or else you now eat humble pie served by Angela M; its damned if you do and damned if you don't. So if the Euro explodes what happens to Ireland?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:17 | 1974576 Ahmeexnal
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This explains why many euro-peon young are already leaving the sinking ship.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:21 | 1974597 GeneMarchbanks
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Oh, yeah, where to?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:40 | 1974671 Ahmeexnal
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US, Canada, LatAm, India, Africa, SE Asia.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:49 | 1974712 GeneMarchbanks
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Last year I met an American girl at an internet cafe. She had just come from contracts teaching english in South Korea and China. She left for the same work in Budapest because the conditions were 'so horrible'. Masters in Anthropology. For those of us who actually travel, there is no haven. Stories like this repeat ad infinitum,

Migration patterns stay stable unless there are major changes( natural disaster, war etc)

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 14:05 | 1974786 hedgeless_horseman
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For those of us who actually travel, there is no haven.

I respectfully disagree.  For those who actually want to work, there is a haven in the countryside.  I have been to farms on four continents, including Europe, and found young people building prosperous and rewarding lives away from the city.



Tue, 12/13/2011 - 14:12 | 1974811 topcallingtroll
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I always found the conditions pleasant, life joyful, and more girls wanting to date el americano than I had time for.

Go to south or central america and teach english. You dont need a fuckin work permit. A tourist visa is fine.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 14:50 | 1974883 GeneMarchbanks
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You are absolutely correct. Let me clarify, there is no safe haven country. What needs to be addressed is that major metro areas are entering a world of hurt. Each major city and country is different. Some lack basic resources like water while others have massive property inflation problems.

Seeking asylum in some 'magic' free country is absurd.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 14:36 | 1974947 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Not only the young peons are jumping ship:


Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:18 | 1974582 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Kyle Bass is down on Japan. Timing....timing timing.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 15:51 | 1975348 CPL
CPL's picture

Japan is cancer cancer cancerous.  We will all see that in the coming years just like Europe.


Name anyone planning on relocating for the business environment.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:28 | 1974583 DormRoom
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The entire debt-leverage pyramid is based on collateral, ostensibly safe 'AAA', which have been shown to be anything but.  So you have a mountain of leverage, based on mathematical models, where the invariants (riskless collateral) have suddenly changed. They were never suppose to change. So the model breaks down.  Worse, the world is running out of safe collateral, as risk re-pricing cascades though the market, in a viciuos feedback loop.


you cannot unsee. 


Central Banks cannot stop the collapse of shadow banking, without hyperinflation in the real economy.  zee Germans know this.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:37 | 1974661 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

Sisyphus bitchez!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 14:17 | 1974838 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Yes central bankers can.
Stagflation is the middle way, the muddle through.
I would be ok with that if they would also get religion and solve the moral hazard and financial feudalism we are facing.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:45 | 1974694 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Interesting post, but why not hyperdeflation? Asset values going down in a negative feedback loop. No one willing to put money into it. Prices have to go down more...

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 14:06 | 1974744 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

"Asset values going down in a negative feedback loop..."

The way I see it, asset prices ARE deflating...

- 401K - down

- House value - down

- Your paper cash - down (which is why it takes more of it to buy PM's & gasoline & food & heat)

The price that it takes the same cash (asset), to buy another asset (home or equity), may not appear to change that much in the process if you consider cash an asset & since they're in the process of deflating together...

Bankers will tell you that gold & silver are 'barbarous relics' (NOT assets)... So that argument... YOU'RE TOLD... is irrelevant... (& oh by the way, that means that since that means there is no INFLATION, then they can continue to do the only thing they know how to do... PRINT MONEY [whether that means 'big bazookas' when times get rough, or just by PRINTING THE COUPON, when people say 'enuf'])...

Disclaimer: THEY created this POTEMKIN VILLAGE... I'm just the IDIOT who lives in it...

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 14:41 | 1974967 DormRoom
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yes, it's a binary outcome. hyperinflation or hyperdeflation.


Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:21 | 1974603 Iliketurtles
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maybe I read this wrong but I consider this not just bullish but very bullish.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:24 | 1974607 LookingWithAmazement
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European banks and governments will succeed in funding. Mark my words. Fed and ECB provide unlimited money otherwise banks will be nationalized. No crisis. Merry Christmas and a happy, recession-free 2012.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:31 | 1974638 Ghordius
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the problem is more that the banks in Europe are resisting recapitalization and will probably have to be forced to, up to the point of full nationalization if "necessary".

but yes, for this the ECB will print as much "as necessary", I agree

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:32 | 1974641 SheepDog-One
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Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:32 | 1974643 Iliketurtles
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hey sport back to reality. What will this new funding do to Oil Prices? Every politician will be voted out of office and any whiff of banker bailouts will result in anarchy. the citizens of both US and Europe are no longer willing to accept a bailout like the ones in the past.

the extend and pretend is coming to an end and sooner than you think

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:37 | 1974648 Ghordius
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nationalization of banks is not perceived as bailout

and in Europe it's not perceived as "bad"

throw out a few top managers and the deal is done

I'm talking about the small and mid-sized commercial banks, not the TBTF megabanks, btw

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 15:55 | 1975361 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

the citizens of both US and Europe are no longer willing to accept a bailout like the ones in the past.

the extend and pretend is coming to an end and sooner than you think


Get back to me on the day that they tie the SNAP benefits & Social Security checks to the "bailout" wagon...

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:34 | 1974645 agent default
agent default's picture

QE to hell will not save or change anything.  Unless TBTF are broken up, OTC derivatives are eliminated and some form of sound money is introduced, forget it.  Unlimited money will, eventualy, just cause a default with unlimited zeros at the end.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:37 | 1974658 SheepDog-One
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Imaginary money cant solve anything, of course.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:38 | 1974663 Ghordius
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imaginary numbers are the driver of life and growth

imaginary money is the driver of...

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:52 | 1974730 Ahmeexnal
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thousand year empires?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:09 | 1978280 LongSoupLine
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1) abusive fleecing of the middle class.

2) increased wealth to select few.

3) increased physical PM value.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 16:40 | 1975596 delacroix
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the FUNDS are unicorn farts, there aren't even any skittles left

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:29 | 1974627 Ratscam
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any trade recommendations other than precious metals?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 13:41 | 1974678 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

hooch, popcorn, & some cubans

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 16:00 | 1975412 CPL
CPL's picture

Ah, the grain and agriculture trade versus the usual PM commodities of Ag, Pb and Silver.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 19:08 | 1976407 FEDbuster
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For the grain trade, take delivery of 35 lb. lots of oatmeal in mylar sealed bags in five gal. buckets.  Alternative metals trade, brass, lead and copper jacket.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:19 | 1978311 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

or just buy cases of MRE's and save tons of money on the back end when the collapse occurs.

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