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New Art Cashin Reminder Of An Old Threat

Tyler Durden's picture





 

On Friday, Zero Hedge presented an extensive refresh on the one latent hotbed of troubles that everyone has conveniently forgotten about, yet which is getting worse by the day: the Mediterranean region, in "What Lies In Store For The "Cradle That Rocks The World" - A History Lesson In Crisis" and specifically Egypt -that most populous Arab nation, which last time we checked, is still Israel's neighbor (and which still controls the Suez canal). Still, for some of our more attention troubled readers who may have passed on the Friday piece, here is a much shorter version from Art Cashin which focuses on just one of numerous variables in play - the relationship between the controlling military and the resurgent Muslim Brotherhood. In other words, in deposing of Mubarak, the US has once again done its bull in a china shop approach to foreign relations and replaced one quite predictable dictator with a bevy of far more dangerous unknowns. Cashin's conclusion is traditionally cryptic and ominous: "The most populous Arab nation on the Earth and Israel’s closest neighbor is on the verge of something dramatic and potentially very, very dangerous. Watch carefully and constantly."

From UBS Financial Services

Egypt And Simmering - In Friday’s Comments, we cautioned that among geo-political concerns “Egypt simmers beneath the surface”. Unfortunately that simmering bubbled onto the surface and the streets. The always sharp-eyed Bob Hardy took some note on his terrific GeoStrat blog (MB is the Muslim Brotherhood).

We see some interesting parallels in what is transpiring on the surface in Egypt and beneath it. Egypt continues to descend into violence and chaos, which serves to doom the economy. The country is running out of money and the Generals seem to prefer that an elected government be in place when that occurs rather than their having to take the blame alone. The military has been trying to forge a bond with the MB that will protect its assets and interests, but it may have waited too late. The MB sees this moment as an opportunity to push out the military regime, as the country appears to be more pro-MB than pro-military. The regime is now at risk of having its annual $1.3 billion in U.S. military aid cancelled unless it can promise to maintain order in the  country, and abide by the Camp David Accords. Therefore, we see money and political control as the subtext for the chaos that has enveloped the urban areas of the country.

 

The vote for President seems certain to be advanced, as nominations will be accepted starting February 23rd it appears, and that means that a Presidential election could be held in late April or May. This leaves little time for the writing of a new Constitution. We now expect to see a new Constitution negotiated in advance by the MB and the regime, which will allow the military to maintain control of defense and foreign affairs. Such a plan of action will require a certain amount of trust on both sides that we see lacking, but there is little time to waste.

The most populous Arab nation on the Earth and Israel’s closest neighbor is on the verge of something dramatic and potentially very, very dangerous. Watch carefully and constantly.

 


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Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment frenchie
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isn't MB a free masonic loge ?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Jefferson
Jefferson's picture

Amazing coincidence how recently every country in the Middle East the US invades or helps overthrow ends up with or is on the way towards having a radicalized Muslim government in charge.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 13:17 | Link to Comment apoorboy
apoorboy's picture

"democracy" is a bitch when your guy get beat.  Can't wait till super pacs go to the middle east!

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 13:22 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Egypt wasn't a threat until Hillary jilted Hosni.

You've gotta know this is part of the plan.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 14:10 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

Do you want to know the outcome? The writing is all the wall. I've referenced this book before and it's a mirror image of what's happening today,... just that it was more than a half century ago. 

It's a short [319 pgs.] read that will amaze the reader on how complex the ME was and for that matter even more perplexing today. It's available on Amazon [used].

" Islam Inflamed" by James Morris c.1957

This is a must read, and keeper for your personal library

thanks tyler

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 16:57 | Link to Comment Tyranny is Love
Tyranny is Love's picture

Cant have a war without an enemy! If there isn't one in a convienient place make one up.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 14:14 | Link to Comment 4horse
4horse's picture

underestimating Empire may be one kind of stupid, poorboy . . . but consistently whispering their snaky "secrets" up'n'down their own grapevine like you is in on the big huggermugger: well. it does sorta overtly put the stoo-oo-oooge back in stooo--oo-ooopid

so. perhaps you indeed Can't wait  .  .  .  yet to get behind that one particular waiting line might very well take you back <-----to the future -----> circa 1914-1918

 

Cent'an 

 

1954-1970: CIA and the Muslim Brotherhood Ally to Oppose Egyptian President Nasser
  
 
In 1954, Egyptian President Gamal Abddul Nasser’s nationalist policies in Egypt come to be viewed as completely unacceptable by Britain and the US. MI6 and the CIA jointly hatch plans for his assassination. According to Miles Copeland, a CIA operative based in Egypt, the opposition to Nasser is driven by the commercial community—the oil companies and the banks  .  .  . The following years see a long and complex struggle pitting Nasser against the Muslim Brotherhood, the US, and Britain. The CIA funnels support to the Muslim Brotherhood because of “the Brotherhood’s commendable capability to overthrow Nasser.” [Baer, 2003, pp. 99; Dreyfuss, 2005, pp. 101-108] The Islamist regime in Saudi Arabia becomes an ally of the United States in the conflict with Nasser. They offer financial backing and sanctuary to Muslim Brotherhood militants during Nasser’s crackdown. Nasser dies of natural causes in 1970.

http://www.historycommons.org/entity.jsp?entity=muslim_brotherhood

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 17:00 | Link to Comment Tyranny is Love
Tyranny is Love's picture

The Muslim brotherhood had ties with the Nazi's way before that.

 

Then came paperclip

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 17:41 | Link to Comment 4horse
4horse's picture

Cent'an

<------1914

 

however much they're needed, do not precede the ottoman nor 1914

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 21:22 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They are going to have to start this war very very soon.  The market today was scared, you could see it and feel it.  All those statements of it's alright and everything has been seen in regard to Greece was just make believe.  Tomorrow is going to be crazy, just you wait.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

OT.  CNBC quoting ZH!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46280983

Did hell freeeze over?

Next ting ya know Bob Pissoni will be contributing here!

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:44 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

"Next ting ya know Bob Pissoni will be contributing here!"

    Pisani, Bartiromo, Cramer - don't "contribute" to anything. They are mouthpieces and nothing more. When Mark Haines died, whatever journalistic integrity CNBC had died with him.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:52 | Link to Comment Cpl Hicks
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I find Santelli, Caruso-Cabrera and Hobbes to be talking heads willing to discuss real issues.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 13:25 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

I can hardly wait for the first Cramer guest post.

The comments will be a hoot.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment Ted K
Ted K's picture

----@Cpl Hicks

I'm assuming this is in-between your daily fix of Beavis and Butthead's discourses on Kissinger???

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:49 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
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Next ting ya know Bob Pissoni will be contributing here!

 

On that day Zero Hedge will cease to be My home page.

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:29 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:30 | Link to Comment dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

failed bond auctions, no food, no gas..........corruption to the core......not a good situation..

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Disagree

A corrupt despotic Egypt is just what Israel had in mind.  We will wait for Egyptians to cannibalize each other, absorb another Arab country into our Zionist Empire, and secure control of the Suez Canal!

Now, back to the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians!

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:31 | Link to Comment Fred123
Fred123's picture

0bamas plan to destroy Israel is moving ahead.....

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

LOL. Try again!

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 13:00 | Link to Comment greyghost
greyghost's picture

and israel's actions won't destroy themselves???? hmmm...any connection to poster smb12321?? your fred123 and he is smb12321 and you both have a cult like obsession with israel.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

The US replaced Mubarak? Egyptians might disagree, Tyler.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 13:03 | Link to Comment djudy003
djudy003's picture

You are right, Mubarak was replaced because he had nothing left in him anyways, he had cancer and was trying to hand over power to his son, but that was not going too well... Displacing Mubarak was the second of a serious of controlled explosions to blow out the dynamite that is the Syrian regime. Everyone knows that the one thing that is keeping Israel from attacking Iran is its fear of retaliation from the Iran backed Shiet milita (Hezbullah) in order to eliminate that threat (since it failed in 2006) they need to get rid of the Syrian regime, which without Hezbullah can not survive. Just in time to destroy Iran and liberate the Iranian crude as Tyler puts it. Iran's nuclear program is an excuse. The west (particularly) Europe need to liberate Iranian oil just like they liberated Libyan oil, so as to loosen Russia's grip around their throat, and get China out of bed with the Iranians...

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 17:10 | Link to Comment Tyranny is Love
Tyranny is Love's picture

Look at the origins of, and early history of the groups now dominate in Egypt. replacing Mubarak began long before last year. That was only the tipping point.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment LiquidityandLunacy
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Boogeyman

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:48 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

He's in your closet. I'll protect you from him if you hand over all your gold and silver and rights and children among other things.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 13:01 | Link to Comment slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Exactly.

Or as I joke to my wife OsamaBinBogeyMan.

We all must be afraid of another red under the bed. In 10-20 years time, you will have all the media whores talking about how bad the 'new MacCarthy' era was. .....and how they were all soooo intimidated....especially fox news and cnn presitutes.

At least George Clooney and others made their point with E R Morrow movie.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_R._Murrow

 

http://www.imdb.com/video/screenplay/vi2963931417/

 

Remember they are everywhere

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 13:24 | Link to Comment slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Go Ridley, Ford and Hauer

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 13:41 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

People think PKD was crazy. No. He understood.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:45 | Link to Comment slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

There have been plenty of predictions, the first have been wrong, the second vague.

This fits the second catagory, along with greek bond holders tossing a d20 dice to decide whether or not greece will default that day. ...I'm sure there is a comdey skit in there somewhere.

The only oberservation I can make is that the farce is now openly joked about by the mainstream business media. As such if one follows the history of argentina, austria and germany; It was when no one gave a s**t any more, nor mainstrain news when the  collapse finally came. 

 As such, would it be the end of the world if Egypt were to get a muslim brotherhood  president?

Lets wait and see. After all, all the predictions given in the mainstream were formerly US government foreign policy fans....and we know how that has turned out.

Perhaps waiting and seeing may be a better idea. The west has enough 'enemies' already.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Egypt charges 44 NGO workers with illegal activities

Egypt's post-revolutionary authorities have set it on a collision course with Washington, its erstwhile ally, by deciding to charge 44 NGO workers including 19 Americans with illegal activities.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/906...

The Obama administration and senior Congressional leaders have warned Egypt that $1.5 billion in American aid could be withdrawn due to the investigation. Egypt’s receiving the funds is contingent on its government showing that it is making progress towards democracy, including the acknowledgement of the independence of civil groups. The US State Department says that the investigations endanger Egypt being certified to receive the aid.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16896018

On September 22, 2011, the Senate Committee on Appropriations marked up S. 1601, the Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Act, 2012. The
bill provides the full FY2012 $1.55 billion request for Egypt, but it does include some conditions. The bill authorizes FMF grants to be transferred to ESF. It also states that no funds in the bill may be provided to Egypt unless the Secretary of State certifies to the Committees on Appropriations that such government is meeting its obligations under the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty and that that the Government of Egypt has held free and fair elections and is implementing policies to protect the rights of journalists, due process, and freedoms of expression and association. S. 1601 also authorizes bilateral debt relief for Egypt and up to $60 million in ESF for Egypt to create an Enterprise Fund to support small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs)...

On July 19, Senators Kerry, McCain, and Lieberman introduced S. 1388, the Middle East and North Africa Transition and Development Act. The bill finds, among other things, that the functions of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) are consistent with the critical and rising economic needs of Egypt and the Middle East and North Africa. Overall, the bill would facilitate the EBRD’s lending to the region should candidate countries meet certain criteria.

 

www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf

 

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:53 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

One wonders what an insolvent entity does when it keeps loaning money. Exporting its own insolvency,maybe.

Quite a gift for Egypt.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 13:04 | Link to Comment Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

You caught me mid edit...

 

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects to report realised profits of more than 800 million euros in 2011, after making record investments of over 9 billion euros last year, the bank said on Wednesday.

Net profits will be lower than the realised profits due primarily to lower equity valuations, the bank said in a statement. Non-performing loans dropped to 2.6 percent of total loans in 2011, from 2.9 percent in 2010. Investments last year included a 10 percent increase to one billion euros in investment to Early Transition Countries -- 10 of the poorest countries in the region such as Mongolia, Tajikistan and Armenia.1

The EBRD will extend its mandate to North Africa in 20122. Jordan and Tunisia became EBRD members at the end of 2011, the EBRD said, and along with existing shareholders Egypt and Morocco are looking to receive investment from the development bank.

http://news.egypt.com/english/permalink/78413.html

 

Feb 2011

"A technical study is being undertaken and the aim is to finalise it in spring for further consideration by our shareholders," EBRD spokesman Axel Reiserer told Reuters.

The study, which identifies areas of the economy that the London-based lender could help develop, began last May on request from shareholder Egypt.3

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/02/15/uk-egypt-ebrd-idUKTRE71E4OB2011...

 

In 2010 British consultants were awarded the highest number of consultancy contracts -773 totalling €44.54 million.  The share of contracts awarded to the British consultants amounted to 25 per cent of the value of the 2010 contract awards by the EBRD and its clients. British consultants’ expertise ranged from information technology financial, accounting, legal, engineering, environmental, procurement, integrity, marketing across all sectors including financial institutions, SME, energy efficiency, power and energy, transport and manufacturing. Included in the contract statistics are 93 contracts totalling €869,008 by the TurnAround Management Programme for provision of management advice. A significant share of contracts awarded to British consultants was for the Bank’s institutional needs funded from the Bank’s budget, such as IT development, staff training and coaching, advice on the maintenance of the Headquarters building.4

Highlights of 2010 consultancy contracts

  • Assignment:  Kazakhstan - Public-Private Partnership Project in Transport Sector
    Funding source: Japan Technical Cooperation Fund

    Contract value: €1,396,075
    Winner:  Over Arup and Partners Ltd, UK
  • Assignment: Tajikistan - Agroinvestbank: Support with Implementation of Institution Building Plan
    Funding source: Early Transition Countries Fund
    Contract value: €1,100,459
    Winner: Maxwell Stamp Plc, UK

http://www.ebrd.com/pages/about/workwith/donors/countries/uk/indepth.sht...

 

Pretty sure someone famous has been doing a lot of consultancy of his own in that region...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/nov/29/prince-andrew-kazakh-billionaire

 

 

 

The rabbit hole is deep and wide, Arab Autumn ahoy.

  • 1. So, what % profits come from these poorest countries? What's the trickle down?
  • 2. You mean, Libya?
  • 3. Was this Mubarak? Or the opposition being organised with US dollars?
  • 4. What % of 44.54 million Euros is a "significant share" on running costs?
Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:45 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Heads up Egyptian military..  Start doing internally what your supposed to be good at..

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Duke Dog
Duke Dog's picture

Say what you will about Lindsey Williams (got your pencil and paper ready), but this entire toppling of our former "friends" and literal handover to the Muslim Brotherhood of these ME countries is a major component of the plans for the never ending War in the region (and the world) - helping both the MIC and Big Oil.

I tend to believe he is spot on in this regard - it makes way too much sense.

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 15:50 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

As always, just follow the money....who profits?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:51 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

 “Greece has until the March 20th payments, so all the deadlines we keep hearing about are mostly negotiating ploys,” the pseudonymous blogger Tyler Durden of ZeroHedge explains.

 

Good point.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:55 | Link to Comment The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

obama signed an excutive order to freeze all assets of Iran and its central bank in the US.  Might be a war after all.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 12:57 | Link to Comment The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

see what happens to a country when they stop using the US$

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 13:01 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

The door was sealed (soldered) so that one of the teams dont come out!

Basically, it was a conspiracy to kill the revolutionists, who are mainly from Cairo ..

Thats regarding the Supwer Bowl on Feb 1st 2012

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

"our more attention troubled readers".

I guess we have a few of those. Good time to sell our gold and buy confetti? I think not!

Syria, Israel, Egypt, Iran, Europe, America.

Merkel, Sarkozy, Obama, Geithner, Bernank, Assad.

Remember the definition of Tsunami. Hmmmm.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

"Egypt continues to descend into violence and chaos, which serves to doom the economy"

Just means they will be using less of their oil so there will be more left when the US discovers that they have WMD too, just like Iraq, Iran, etc. etc. 

 

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 13:56 | Link to Comment spentCartridge
spentCartridge's picture

Did hell freeeze over?

Quoting OldColdSmoke

 

*******************

 

Hell ain't ever been hot dontcha know?

 

It's colder than ice ... -270°C to be precise. 

 

Space :)

 

Is a big cold place ...

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

Isn't it obvious that none of this matters any more?  why would anyone sell, or for that matter get short.   the US Federal reserve has clearly outlined their mandate of continued dollar debasement and is apparently very comfortable with the side effects of such a policy.  couple that with their overt backstopping of the stockmarket with as much money as necessary to do the job.  the markets will all continue to trickle up on no volume as trade consists of only longs pressing and algorithms.  no one will bother risking a short until this policy changes.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Steve in Greensboro
Steve in Greensboro's picture

Wonder how long it takes before the statues of the pharoahs go the same way at the Bamiyan Buddhas?

But no matter.  Chicago Jesus and Bill Clinton's lovely wife Bruno got their "Arab Spring" foreign policy victory.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment WTF2
WTF2's picture

What's the point spread?

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 15:09 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

This is how opportunities are wasted and devolve back into 'perpetuating the causes of crises'. Rather than give the Egyptians a real sense of democratic change, the military regime has lingered too long and now we're faced with the same problems that plague our own country: the lesser of 2 evils in this so-called 2 party system where heads we lose, tails they win (they being the central planning elite which continue to rape and pillage economies of productive assets under the guise of bailouts and loans).

If there is any hope in the future developments of revolutions it is to be without military influence and political posturing and more about seeking democracy first and foremost and leaving politics behind us.

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