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New Day, Same Stuff

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Once again equities are responding to events with more excitement than the credit markets.

Yes, Germany approved the changes to EFSF first announced back in July.  That was fully expected and a No vote would have been a shocking disaster at this stage.  The level of cynicism has hit a new high.  I have heard a lot of chatter that now that Germany has jammed this through, they can stop pretending that they are against levering up the funds.  I am not a fan of the politicians or political process, but betting money that Schaeuble and Merkel made such bold-faced lies seems like an act of desperation.  The risks from pursuing the leveraged EFSF strategy are real and high - downgrades of all the top European countries and inability to stop any renewed selling pressure in the future.  Germany has the sense not lose their rating in a futile attempt to defend a perimeter that can no longer be defended.

We had a bit of positive data today.  Though the fact that the usually optimistic BLS took the time to point out the data may have had a weird seasonal adjustment should dampen the enthusiasm.  This is a group that has under-reported intial claims so many times in a row that is beyond comical, so they have a tendency to sugar coat the truth - and here they took the time to downplay a good number.  The market loves discarding the number when it is bad but affected by things like the weather, but is happy to ignore today's caveat.

Taking a look below the surface reveals that the credit markets are still struggling.  Bond volumes are low and are not participating in rallies.  This is in part because of continued supply pressures.  Corporations need to come to market, as do companies.  The secondary bond market can remain in limbo and quote prices that make everyone comfortable.  Down enough that no one is too eager to short an individual bond but not cheap enough where real demand would come.  New issues are coming at concessions, and until the market can absorb a new issue without a significant concession, spreads will not perform particularly well.

HCA came with a 8% 7 year bond on Tuesday.  It was priced at par and is now trading at 98.5.   It was only a $500 million issue.  To put that in context, back in July HCA priced a 7.5% 10 year bond.  It was a $2 billion issue and traded up.  So the bond was bigger, had a lower coupon, far lower spread (treasury yields were higher than), and longer maturity, yet the market absorbed it and wanted more.  A lot has changed in two months and equities are free to resume their march back to 1,200 but I think this HCA deal is a great example of how weak credit really is.  If you want to get long risk, high yield seems more attractive than stocks.  That market is down almost as much year to date as the SPX, and yet does have downside protection.

Over the past two years we have seen story after story about how much cash companies have on their balance sheets and how robust the corporate bond market has been.  A portion (I think large portion) of that cash has come from issuing bonds.  Those bonds have maturities and have to be re-financed.  That will be a source of supply in addition to those companies that actually need money.

The weak Italian auction is also another source of overhang.  How can an auction be a sign of more supply coming?  Italy did not raise all the money they wanted or needed.  They will be back for more.  They didn't want to pay the premium required to get a bigger deal done.  They still need the money and will be back, and given their ability to "time the markets" they may regret not taking money at these rates when they could have.  They too are waiting for the EFSF to lend them money.  Yes, Italy can't wait to guarantee the EFSF so that the EFSF can borrow money and then lend it to Italy.

The CDS indices, which are about equally correlated with stocks as with corporate bonds in these hectic times are not responding well again today.  Main is unchanged and IG and HY are only a tiny bit better on the day.  For all the feelings of relief, BAC CDS remains at 400.  That is still close to its widest levels and is there because of its US problems, not because of Europe.  Yes, in spite of the focus on Europe, we have our own problems here and those have not been fixed by levered EFSF.

Some consistent good data, that doesn't rely on inventory build or weird seasonal adjustments would make me change my view.  Real strength and a deep bid in the credit markets would make me change my view.  Actual progress in European debt reduction or GDP growth would make me change my view.  Until I see at least one of the above I will continue to be bearish US stocks at these prices.

 

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Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:52 | 1721909 Ancona
Ancona's picture

I belive they will kneel before their banking masters, who have explained to them in explicit detail what they must do or they will implode it all.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:53 | 1721913 PivotalTrades
PivotalTrades's picture

So Germany decides to help provide more gasoline and matches for the fire that rages in Europe. The socialist(communist) are in power and will use the current events to strengthen that power. How will bailing them out help. The more debt we create the longer this will be dragged out and the more wealth will be vaporized as this debt is either defaulted on or inflated away!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:21 | 1722022 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

But absent the creation of more debt you get implosion.  This is what credit/debt money with interest attached at its creation gives us.  The creation of money is really just the creation of debt.  Only the interest that begins to accumulate when the money is issued doesn't exist.  The only way to create the money that must be paid in interest is to create more money (i.e. issue more debt).  This is the system that has been chosen to facilitate economic growth.  When the system can't juice the creation of more debt, you'll have cascading defaults and total destruction.

It's fine for people to want to argue the question of whether or not social security is a ponzi scheme, but the real ponzi scheme is our monetary system.  More debt is issued on a continual basis in order for interest to be paid on debt previously issued.  And that debt is money.  The entire system is a ponzi scheme.  And just like a ponzi scheme, nobody notices much or care much when everyone is getting paid.  In fact, the architects may even look like heroes to some.  But when it starts to crumble, everyone in it gets wiped out. 

Right now it is only a question of how many more rungs are left in us.  Collapse in enviable.  Timing is a little harder to call.

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:25 | 1722036 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Well said, Krid.  +1

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:32 | 1722044 nyse
nyse's picture

Hear, hear!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:37 | 1722070 PivotalTrades
PivotalTrades's picture

"But absent the creation of more debt you get implosion." Only when true growth is unattainable as it is now. Debt is only a problem when it grows and attains a size  that the servicing can not be met from current revenue. The problem we face (Europe and the US) is that socialist in both countries took advantage of the demographics and technological fueld growth to pile on government largess to purchase votes above and beyond the ability to pay. As the demographics continue to worsen the problem will get worse. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:53 | 1722123 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

The problem is partially the gov't in that they are the thug enforcement arm of the monetary system, but it isn't the SOCIALISTS (oh the horror).  That's the narrative provided to make it political.  It keeps people comfortable inside one camp or another, but it isn't what lies at the core of the problem.  As for Gov't debt, that is just one piece of the perpetual debt growth puzzle.  Aggregate debt must increase (consumer, corporate, gov't).  Gov't debt is really nothing more than a lever to pull if the other two credit markets start to wobble.  This is what we are experiencing today; the last gasps of air in the system that requires debt to always grow.  How much longer the facade can hold, I'm not sure.  I think longer than many people here think, mostly because most people want to believe the fantasy.   

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:01 | 1722166 PivotalTrades
PivotalTrades's picture

Absent the socialist robbing Peter tp pay Paul and provide Paul with all kinds of goodies debt would remain managable. Your refusal to identify the problem is the reason we are at this crossroad.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:17 | 1722224 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

I'm telling you the problem, you replying with a narrative.  The problem is a monetary system that uses debt instruments as money and that ties interest to that debt whenever money is created.  In that system, debt will appear manageable during some period of time while that debt grows.  When the cost associated with maintaining that debt becomes too big of a burden, the system will collapse.  This cycle can't be changed any more than you can make 2+2 equal 5.  Credit/debt money requires aggregate debt to continually increase.

http://peakwatch.typepad.com/peak_watch/2009/01/depression-or-recovery-whats-in-the-cards.html - I haven't read this article... I mean only for you to look at the graph.  This is math, not politics. 

I'm not in favor of robbing peter to pay paul, but that isn't the problem.  Like I said before... gov't debt is only one piece of the puzzle and right now is only being used to keep things from outright collapse.  And don't hear me wrong, I'm not arguing in favor of it.  I merely want to point out what the actual problem is... even if you tell me that by doing so, I'm not actually identifying the problem.  That seems a little odd.  Maybe you just don't like my answer.  And perhaps that's because it doesn't fit well with the bogeymen you've been given.

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:41 | 1722323 PivotalTrades
PivotalTrades's picture

So what your telling me is that you personally (since you use debt instruments as money), have or would have put yourself in a posituion where you were unable to or are unable to service your debt. Or have you conducted your finances in a prudent fashion? The problem is not debt it is the ability to create debt with out regard to how it will be repaid. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 13:19 | 1722523 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

You are conflating two different topics and creating one straw man.  Debt in and of itself isn't bad.  Money as debt is, IMO.  Fiat money combined with fractional reserve banking (our monetary system) is bad.  Virtually all money created in our system begins as debt with interest.  The problem... there isn't enough physical money in the system to pay both the interest and the principle.  So debt not only can't be eliminated, it very mathematically must continually increase.  As the debt increases the interest burden increases until the interest burden overwhelms the productive capability of the system.  You then face cascading defaults and deflationary depression (option A) or you QEX to death to try to stop it, creating inflation in the things that people need, and most likely not having any real effect on prices of things that people own (see housing... and eventually other things as well, I'm guessing).

The straw man is my personal finances. That really has nothing to do with anything in this discussion.  But yes... by virtue of living in a society that doesn't understand what money is, I have put myself in a position where I face the same pending collapse as do you.  I currently have no creditors... but I don't know if that really matters.

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 13:34 | 1722583 PivotalTrades
PivotalTrades's picture

In the same way "Debt in and of itself isn't bad." "Fiat money combined with fractional reserve banking (our monetary system) is bad." , Fiat money in and of itself isnt bad, in both cases its the misuse. Fiat is more easily abused because it does not posess a self regulating mechanism that a hard currency (gold or commodity backed)  does. Socialist governments missuse the debt because they create the debt for their constituants while expecting some one else to pay their fair share! 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:07 | 1722770 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

I'm glad that you specifically pointed out fractional reserve banking as the mechanism of eventual destruction.  I agree that paper/digital money works correctly in the absence of leverage.  Closely related to this, I would suggest that the one thing the islamists got correct was the tyranny of interest.  In this country we refer to it as the "miracle of compounding interest".  Well, it's not really a miracle to the one paying the interest.  Parallels abound in the proverb "borrower is slave to the lender" / Jesus throwing out the moneychangers.  Conceptually ancient and eternally accurate observations.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:25 | 1722894 PivotalTrades
PivotalTrades's picture

The money changers were fee operated only certain coinage was exceptable for sacrafices. Again "interest" is not tyranny interest above ability to pay is. Self discipline is the key!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:38 | 1722075 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Shut up and cut me another line; I'm starting to come down. ;)

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 13:29 | 1722568 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

BOOYAHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:40 | 1722322 SirIssacNewton
SirIssacNewton's picture

The creation of money is really just the creation of debt.  Only the interest that begins to accumulate when the money is issued doesn't exist.  The only way to create the money that must be paid in interest is to create more money (i.e. issue more debt).

I do agree with the general statement about how the creation of money is really just the creation of debt.  The interest, though, can be paid through two ways.  One way, and the most prevalent, is exactly as you stated...that more debt must be created in ever increasing amounts.  The other way interest is paid is through the creation of commodities.  The productive difference between the cost of extracting or growing the commodity is truly new money and that's why governments want to know how much is produced or extracted as an input into the monetary formula.  For example, the cost to grow corn is X and the market will pay Y (Y being the money created through debt), but the remainder is Z and contributes to the interest portion of a Debt Monetary System.  The problem with produced commodities, like corn, is that once it is consumed and the remainder ends up at the sewage treatment plant......this interest payment is destroyed and, thereby, has only a temporary span as interest.  Extracted commodites have a longer lifecycle as interest depending on their servicable span and/or recycling, but, once it ends up in a land fill, its value as interest is also extinguished.  The one exception, historically, was gold (and in some ways silver) because it was considered money itself and didn't take new debt to circulate as interest or new money.  That's why it was de-monetized, but that's a different discussion.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 13:29 | 1722572 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

But is it not debt that underwrites that system?  If you acknowledge that additional debt needed to be created in order to create the money that was needed to purchase the corn, the fact remains that debt will still grow, regardless of the farmer's ability to turn a profit, no?  Our monetary system doesn't preclude people from building profitable businesses.  In fact, if one wanted to argue that the current system is better than a system of sound money and 100% reserve banking, they might even have the better position.  Perhaps we simply need to recognize that every 60 or 70 years there will be global upheaval and some sort of system reset.  Regardless, the math will take our current system down.

By the way, I didn't vote your post down.  It's interesting.  I need to think about it some more.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 13:57 | 1722688 SirIssacNewton
SirIssacNewton's picture

Like I said.... I don't disagree that our monetary system is based upon money being created by debt.  I was trying to add to the discussion that interest is the exception in that it call be created without debt but not to the same extent.  We all know that we are reaching a critical stage in this monetary system.  This system makes all, but a few, debt slaves and beholden to behemoth banking cartels.  Truly the law of the exponential will take us down eventually without a major structural change or revolution.  The timeframe for this though....is the battle that is being waged before our eyes.....can it be contained and kicked down the road.....or will it explode and cascade.  Since I am not a fortune teller, I can only surmise that its timeframe is close because I am tired of all the bullshit.  Remember, though, the system which may replace this one may actually be even more oppressive than the one we have today.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:28 | 1722913 PivotalTrades
PivotalTrades's picture

Not when payments include principal. The debt is retired as payments are made.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:31 | 1722935 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

We've opted for the boom bust cycle...  (or it has been chosen for us?)  We get to start the next cycle with the residual technology and whoever was lucky enough to win the last cycle gets to be king in this one.  The problem I see with this approach, as a strategic maneuver, is that world killing technologies keep increasing...  whether it be oil wells out in the ocean, nuclear plants, designer diseases, or anything else...

I'll posit, like you, that the whipsaw of the boom/bust cycle creates a cumulative residual that is greater than if we had kept sound money throughout the same period.  The problem, of course, is when we get a darkages or the like and get a wipe of the residual technology/knowledge.  The gains from the boom/bust cycle are ultimately made upon shaky foundation...  great as they may be.

Not necessarily a right or wrong answer...  although, I think these cycles are more easily perverted to personal gain than their counterpart...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:53 | 1721914 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Commodities getting destroyed again today.

Everyone is fleeing into USDX, TLT, VXX again.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:55 | 1721919 achmachat
achmachat's picture

you know what would really make my day?

If for once you'd say: "TOMORROW...."

I don't need you to see what's happening right this moment.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:03 | 1721940 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

RearviewTrader is the Howard Cosell of the market world, saying mostly obvious and usually irritating things he pretends to be an expert about, but has never actually played in the game himself.

If you read RearviewTrader posts with a nasally Cosell accent, it always fits perfectly and is pretty amusing.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:04 | 1721953 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Bought my one true love, my brazilian hotie, EWZ at 53.70 last week and posted it guys.

You should copy the trades of anonymous internet trolls if u wanna get rich.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:10 | 1721980 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Tomorrow precious metals largely flat to down. Dollar and bonds flat to slightly up. And stocks up.

Yes it doesnt make much sense but that seems to be the world we live in.

Zero hedge.....where u see tomorrow, today!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:04 | 1722180 jdelano
jdelano's picture

pains me but I'd agree with that call.  the window dressing must hold up through Friday.  But I'd add that next week the balloon rises to the spiked ceiling and pops again.  

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:58 | 1721926 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

Plz, short the silver.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:00 | 1721935 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

+1 looks like 30 is holding.  Oh please god, hold 30.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:31 | 1722041 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I wouldn't bet on it. In fact, I'm not betting on it. I'll buy the f'ing dip, when the dip is in.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:01 | 1722163 Au_Ag_CuPbCu
Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

Let it tank...I have plenty of FRN$ I will happily trade for really cheep Au and Ag.  This is a nanosecond in a long timeline; in the long run the PMs are heading much higher.  Maybe not tomorrow but I am buying and holding physical so I don't care.

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:01 | 1721942 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

There is no way in hell you turn a profit trading.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:54 | 1721916 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

In the military we referred to it as SSDD Same Shit Different Day.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:57 | 1721922 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

DSDDSS.

Technically, Different Shit Different Day Same Smell.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:54 | 1721917 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Germany saw what almost happened in 2008-2009, they will print to avoid the abyss, even if it only delays it.

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:24 | 1722034 bonddude
bonddude's picture

I agree.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 13:30 | 1722580 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

There's a slogan:  "Avoid the Abyss".

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:56 | 1721920 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

Stupid acts of men. Decentralized govt is the best course. Scrap the UN, EU and shutter most of the US Federal govt.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:33 | 1722048 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Yeah, didn't our founding fathers have some ideas about a large centralized government? They were against it, or something, I think.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:37 | 1722072 tsx500
tsx500's picture

RON PAUL 2012 !

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:40 | 1722084 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Some of them were; you'll notice that we have a Senate.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:34 | 1722051 oogs66
oogs66's picture

IMF and World Bank should be shuttered too

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:57 | 1721923 jkjacksonhole
jkjacksonhole's picture

Perhaps they realized that printing Euros devalues the Euro. Slow learners.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:58 | 1721924 The4thStooge
The4thStooge's picture

what's going on with ukrain? that has the potential to be quite intersting.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:06 | 1721957 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

Kaboom. Expect Russian intervention.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 13:36 | 1722606 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Tanks?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:58 | 1721928 jdelano
jdelano's picture

thank you tylers. faith restored.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:59 | 1721930 youngman
youngman's picture

I to feel morose...no news to jump on....just noise...IMHO...but the trend is to still print..and not to cut expenses...so still happy with my gold and silver...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:07 | 1721965 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We certainly havent suddenly printed any LESS, thats for damn fact.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:59 | 1721931 The Axe
The Axe's picture

CHINA   is the real story.....TYLER....China in slow down  big time.....OIL   I am short oil big.....china stocks getting kicked like a dog.......a ugly dog

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:05 | 1721954 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

I'd like to know more about their military. They sure want control of the seas. Ominous.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 13:37 | 1722611 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Hell, I'm scared!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:59 | 1721934 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

09-29 10:35: Austrian finance minister says against Euro-zone bonds

 

Dunno if i missed it completely along the way but i was REALLY surprised when going through the european CDO (EFSF) legal document abt amendments to the monster, i found an amendment which allows the monster to buy various european banana republic bonds from the PRIMARY market. All the fuss has been abt the monster being able to buy crap from the secondary market. Has this been yet another undemocratic behind the scene trick by the EU-dictatorship or is it just me having missed it?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:01 | 1721943 AssFire
AssFire's picture

I'm just a simple engineer, but from what I see.. two us steel companies are in the worst 10 performing stocks in the S&P of 2011... Looks just like Oct 2008. Forget Greece, the slowdown is global except for China who is preparing for the hard landing.

 

http://panzner.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451591e69e2015435c29e99970c-pi

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:05 | 1721956 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

One of the downsides of not actually building anything of value anymore.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:08 | 1721970 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

Value? What value is there in a broken toaster made in 2006? The value will be in the replacement toaster which we must buy which we could buy in the US but labor (i.e. govt costs) are too high.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:35 | 1722063 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

No.  labor costs in the US are not too high because of gov't costs.  That's a narrative to keep the conversation focused on gov't being the cause of all of our problems.  In our global economy, when 3rd world workers earn a dollar a day, if you eliminate completely the burden to labor costs created by government regulation, you still don't have a competitive environment (not even close).

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar11/EU-doomed3-11.html - Here is a pretty good read... it's the chart midway down that I would post here if I could.  It's not that our labor costs are too high, it's that we've crafted a way to buy cheap sh-t on credit. 

By the way... I'm no fan of gov't regulation.  I'm somewhat of an anarchist.  So I'm not taking a position in favor of regulation, merely addressing the red herring (IMO) that it's gov't costs passed into labor costs that is creating an imbalance.

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 13:33 | 1722593 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Very interesting, thank you for posting the link.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:02 | 1721947 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Tyler please Please PLEASE PLEASE give this its own sticky page:

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWyrjwXoIqA&feature=player_embedded

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:08 | 1721975 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

In a bizarre way she is right. Although I laughed a lot none the less.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:14 | 1721994 Silver Me Timbers
Silver Me Timbers's picture

My god I don't know if I should laugh or cry at that....I laughed more though.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:17 | 1722006 Silver Me Timbers
Silver Me Timbers's picture

BTW, Peter Schiff just played this clip on his radio show.  You can imagine how much Peter loved this one.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:16 | 1722002 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Lol! No wonder the western world is SO fucked up.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:33 | 1722046 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

What? it's the dollar that is not "backed" by anything.................

wait, i get it,

love is hate

war is peace

up is down

we have always been at war with eastasia?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:42 | 1722088 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Funniest shit I've seen this month. They grow em dumb in the Great White North, eh?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:44 | 1722092 tsx500
tsx500's picture

wow...that's the very first time i've seen that one !  is that MSNBC ( More Snotty Nonsense By Chicks ) ??    

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:02 | 1722168 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I believe that later that day this women was hired by the Globe & Mail as their new business editor.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:14 | 1722209 jdelano
jdelano's picture

If you're having doubts about whether or not it's worth your time to follow BigJim's video link, cast them aside.  It made my day.  

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:06 | 1721960 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Guys this relief rally is likely to be impressive the next couple of months. I am now 100 percent stock in my spec account.

Risk is totally on, dudes. Goldilocks will make a brief cameo appearance.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:40 | 1722082 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I think you're partly right. I believe a relief rally is coming, but I think the S&P will take out 1101 and go lower before the relief rally gets legs. But I guess that's why they call it "speculation", eh?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:56 | 1722134 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Top-calling troll? Bottom-dwelling fool!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:07 | 1721962 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Welcome to fake statistics day.  just as markets were looking weak and month end window dresing was going horribly wrong, the trusty US gov comes out with statistics that are too good to believe.  Will the bailout of wal lstreet ever end.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:07 | 1721963 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

The Fed has proved without a doubt that inflation can be whipped any place, any time by shorting ETF's like GLD, USO, UNG, DBA, etc.

Poor John "Big Mac" Williams at shadowstats, he'll be coming out with a negative inflation forecast next month.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:11 | 1721984 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Read above in nasally Howard Cossell accent, fits perfect! Robo the Howard Cosell of Wall St, annoying, not an expert himself in anything he commentates about, just loves to hear himself talk, bit of drool running down lip. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:36 | 1722969 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

What are you invested in currently?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:10 | 1721979 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Retailers like KSS leading the charge

Celebrating yet another decline in gas prices

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:12 | 1721988 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

As with Netflix, my dear lady.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:12 | 1721989 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

"Im RoboCosell, Ive never played the game myself but I'll act like an expert and make observations and statement in hindsight that any other observer can easily see in order to pump my own ego."

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:13 | 1721993 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whats wrong RoboCossell? You dropped NFLX from your daily rear-view trading projection reports? Huh thats funny.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:15 | 1722001 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

RobotTrader = BaitBot

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:19 | 1722011 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Risk is totally on.
Gold is now a safe, risk off asset?
I guess we should be careful what we wish for.
Will gold now become a low volatility asset?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:37 | 1722984 Panafrican Funk...
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Honestly, I kinda hope it stays in a tight range, easier to scalp.  

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:57 | 1722142 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Because everyone knows WTI going up $4 in hours means lower gas prices.

You are a seriously underestimated deadpan comedian, Robo.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:17 | 1722003 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

If I read the author correctly he appears to be drinking the Bavarian kool-aid taking Merkel and Schaeuble at face value that they are  against  levering up suggesting that they would not risk it.

 

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:16 | 1722004 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

I got out of CDSs a few days ago. Not because the situation in Europe got better, but because I don´t trust my counter parties. All these investors who think CDSs are a good "insurance", look at what happened back in 2008 and then: get out as long as your counter party still is (technically) solvent.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:22 | 1722024 sabra1
sabra1's picture

and GM gets a rating upgrade! here fed, have some more cantalope!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:23 | 1722026 anony
anony's picture

"The masses are asses."   K.  Marx

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:39 | 1722079 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

The masses ruling classes are asses.

There, fixed.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:37 | 1722071 JW n FL
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtjbZl6ZwkQ

Keiser Report: The Greek Depression (E190)

Uploaded by on Sep 29, 2011

This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, ask why wallstreet protesters are maced in the face for merely walking on the sidewalk while JP Morgan's CEO can throw a tirade in the face of regulators and a central banker without being pepper-sprayed. They ask why Vince Cable doesn't pack some pepper spray.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:46 | 1722096 Captain Obviousness
Captain Obviousness's picture

The risk on risk off mentality reminds me of the "Game On!!!" scene in Wayne's World.

Risk on!!!!  Car!!!!!! [run to the sidelines for a moment]   Risk on!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz1kmGKDuUE

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:59 | 1722152 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Speaking of hockey. Your avatar makes me want to punch someone's teeth out.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:06 | 1722184 Captain Obviousness
Captain Obviousness's picture

I'm just an advocate of the gum standard.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tviPLpD8VG8

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:08 | 1722192 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

Market seems fairly placid.

It´s pretty typical end of quarter activity,

Bonds hold up well, indicating that equities rally is mostly about adjustments.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:20 | 1722230 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

China now has Gold ATMs. Wish we had those here. http://www.reuters.com/video/2011/09/29/gold-atms-make-their-way-to-chin...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:57 | 1722411 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

This is the manufacturer: http://www.gold-to-go.com/en/

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:20 | 1722232 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

They´re dressing up some prominent loser dogs.

Internals are less than convincing, there are 40 new highs and 200 new lows. It´s a bear market rally.

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:26 | 1722248 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

risk on!

a bit of positive data!  whoa!

germany?  "Germany has the sense not lose their rating in a futile attempt to defend a perimeter that can no longer be defended."  is that the one before greece was "negotiable"?

what perimeter will they defend?  the one that doesn't need them to defend it?  L0L!!!  the one where the SNB backs the euro?  yeah, the one thet're stepping into line for, there, now...?  that one? 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:28 | 1722257 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Germany has the sense not lose their rating in a futile attempt to defend a perimeter that can no longer be defended. -Peter Tchir

THAT is one hell of an assumption Peter.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 13:29 | 1722575 BarryG
BarryG's picture

Germany benefits from the rape of the eurozone. Saying "Germany has the sense not lose their rating" is a moot point really, as they have no intention of doing so.

It is about gaining control of the other country's finances....

http://germanywatch.blogspot.com/2011/09/merkel-nations-must-give-up-sovereignty.html

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:00 | 1722700 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

Uncle Sam´s deficit financing doing well:

Auction of 7-year Notes: As in the auctions conducted earlier this week, demand was near the top of its 12-month range. Specific statistics from the auction include a bid-to-cover of 3.02, dollar demand of $87.6 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 41.6%. For comparison, the prior auction produced a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.76, dollar demand of $80.0 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 51.7%. An average of the past six auctions gives a bid-to-cover of 2.78, dollar demand of $80.6 billion, and an indirect bidder 43.2%. briefing.com

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