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The New European Normal... Is Squiggly
Via Lars W at Cornucopia blog,
Eurostat just updated their statistics for government debt to GDP for 2011, so here is an updated graph over Belgium, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, France, UK, Netherlands, Germany and Sweden and the development of their gross government debt to GDP from 1996 to 2011.
Countries not matching the new Merkozy-limit of a maximum of 3% budget deficit were Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and... France.
But we can forget the old euro convergence criteria of 2% deficit and at most 60% debt to GDP.
In simple terms - countries need to be in the lower left quadrant (green) and yet the PIGS are rapidly heading in the exact opposite direction (upper right orange quadrant) missing both debt and deficit convergence criteria.
{click chart for larger version}
The economy of Italy seems stable at the moment, so the only countries still having serious troubles with exploding government debt during 2011 were Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.
So forget PIIGS at the moment. It is spelled PIGS, for real this time! Until of course it deteriorates once again.
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But I thought moving to the upper right of any chart was good?
When the hell are you gonna come onto chat?
When I actually have some time to chat.
Mrs. Cog has been very demanding lately. No......not that kind of demanding. Mrs. Cog has me rebuilding her kitchen and bathroom from the studs (plus electrical, plumbing, flooring, cabinets, bathroom fixtures, etc) out. But I hope to escape her grasp in 2 or 3 more weeks.
There could be a small complication though. Could someone please explain to me what a "Honey-Do" list is?
She convinced me this was all good because I'm sharpening my Armageddon skills for when......well, you know. She said that if I didn't increase my intrinsic value she would trade me for a generator when the world comes to an end. I doubt she could get a cast iron fry pan for an old Cognitive Dissonance. :>)
Does this Armageddon Kitchen come with a grill?
If I don't have the kitchen and bathroom done before Armageddon I'll be the one who is grilled. :)
I take it that this is a typo, sorry not to be critical "as the work you do Tyler is beyond belief sometimes". I was just befuddled, Hmm Ireland maybe.
"The economy of Italy seems stable at the moment, so the only countries still having serious troubles with exploding government debt during 2011 were Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain."
Keep up the good work...
The title of this chart alone is worth 5 stars.
Did anybody miss the "BIGPIS FUK" title?
i did
thats a cool graph though. says it all about euro unravelling
EU got one hope: currency depreceation en-masse, so why isnt it happening? cozz market believes ecb gonna fight inflation backstopped by Buba
but, chances of ECB drop in interest rate growing by the day, espcecially if its relative to anchored inflation expectations
i may be wrong here would be interested in others views
"Mrs. Cog has me rebuilding her kitchen and bathroom from the studs"
You are building the kitchen and bathroom off of yourself?
I'm at that age where the only thing studly about me is that I wear a tool belt and I know how to use them.
The tools that is.
Hmmmm. Maybe I am worth a generator in trade after all.
I didn't want to go to "strap on tools" ,, a generator is worthless without fuel ,, and they burn plenty... Are you worth a Franklin stove?
I chaotic math systems that's know asn an attractor, kind of like the drain in your sink.
Duo...you went and told everyone the spoiler solution to the math puzzle.
Squiggly = Bullish
Zigzaggy = Bearish
Lackadaisical = Options straddle
Bucktoothed = Undateable
Everything is fine....now move along.
I think this is the part where the informed and prepared fare significantly better than the ignorant and unprepared.
There's nothing that can be done, just watch the fireworks.
pigs better obey ms merkel or else she will send another bailout.
That'll teach'em.
Don't want a bail out...here's a bailout x infinity.
Apple crushed it again, as usual ZH is wrong wrong wrong.
I've always had a soft spot for squiggly normals.
Hmmm... Larry Sinclair (JSmineset.com) has gotten more emphatic than usual lately:
... says China is going to use gold to buy Iranian oil on June 28th, says it's historic for gold, and likens it to an in-your-face 'gamechanger'. Sure sounds like a biggie to me, Defcon 2 in the currency wars.
... he also reminds everyone that the July ESM treaty, also backstopped by FED swaps, is set to be implemented and it is the mechanism for perpetual European QE to infinity. It will burden sovereigns upon demand with time limits, but will leaves the unelected elites (bankers) 'immune' from oversight and litigation for any collateral damage they may cause.... OPM and no consequences, what could go wrong?
Along with the absurd attack on Egan-Jones, it sure seems like the time to prepare for Western banking holidays is compressing very fast. When you've been conditioned not to respond to all the consant noise it may be easy to get caught off guard. Bank holidays only work when they catch everybody by surprise, dozing off. The day China pays for oil with gold is going to be a very significant event. Don't be surprised thereafter.
When the squiggly go pro.
An update on TARGET2
http://www.cnhedge.com/thread-4003-1-1.html
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
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