New Home Sales "Beat" - What This Means In Context

Tyler Durden's picture

Moments ago new home sales came in at 369K, a "big beat" to expectations of a 347K print and up from the 343K previously. What does this mean? The chart below sums it up.

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Jason T's picture

The disintigration will continue and there is no power great enough to stop it.  Aggregate demand collapse.  

Pladizow's picture

Fewer homes being sold is a good thing!

Aziz's picture

Fall off a cliff and then rise up 5.5%?

Great Success! 

Caviar Emptor's picture

Behold the look of a post-bubble economy. Japan here we come

JPM Hater001's picture

By the time you toss out the cup and grab the pail it wont matter.  The water will continue to wash in...violently.

Pure Evil's picture

If that chart is considered UP, then you might want to talk to your doctor about a prescription for Viagra.

Better yet, if you want a second opinion, ask the wife.

Joe Sixpack's picture

"Fall off a cliff and then rise up 5.5%?"


Dead Cat Bounce.

SeattleBruce's picture

Is there resistance above from the 1966 new homes print?

Freegold's picture

Sure is, I know a recovery when i find one!

Kayman's picture

The lowest of the lows for the past 50 years is the highest of the highs for the past 2 years. 

Bloomey shilling for Oby.

Alea Iactaest's picture

The head fakes just keep on coming. Sort of reminds me how we saw the smart people* went broke in 1929, then the really smart people went broke in 1932, and finally the really really smart people went broke in 1937. BTFD!


(I was going to write "money" instead of people, but there is a human toll to all of this.)

TrainWreck1's picture

Note that the numbers increase after the end of every 'recession', except the last one


Ragnar24's picture

I also noticed that these "dumb" money retail investors (aka homebuyers) have incredible predictive power -- it looks to me that every recession was preceded by a decline in new home buying.

Stock Tips Investment's picture

I agree. This graph reflects the current situation within a historical context. Beyond what they say the figures for this month compared to last month, this level remains very low. Evidence of the difficulties of the economy to recover.

Rainman's picture

Here's more chart porn from Doctor Bubble on the median house pricing change in the 20 largest metros since 2006.

Pretty accurate indicator of why household net worth has been crushed !



g speed's picture

Houston/Dallas still in reset from the "savings and loan" debotch of the Keating Five erra-- just shows how long these "burst bubbles" take to reinflate.

ArkansasAngie's picture

And ... they don't want mean ole investors buying houses at their true economic value.. Nope can't have that.  Price discovery is a bitch.  Hey Benny how many banksters does it take to kill an economy?


Evidently just one


lotusblue's picture

Aggregate demand collapse Indeed! the chart goes back 50 years and we're at lowest in all that time.Population has more than doubled.

Coportists have decided thier earlier bites not big enough.                                                                                              

A tipping point is approaching,something along the lines of French Revolution.

Quinvarius's picture

Aggregate demand.  Sounds like something the Ancients had.  Wonderous people.  Soon there will be an Ancient Aliens episode on the history channel explaining aggregate demand and stonehenge.

That was a quarry/stone mason joke BTW.

mrktwtch2's picture

looks like the nas chart from 99 to 01..

Alea Iactaest's picture

This housing chart, the nas chart... fucking amateur hour. Try this one (DJIA 1920-1940):

Have a nice day!

GolfHatesMe's picture

Sipderman Towels with a new home

Beevreetr's picture

Rock that hill on a Burton !!

Dr. Engali's picture

I think the trendline is definitely broken in that chart.

BobPaulson's picture

They only need it to do that about one or two more decades and they can get through the inventory.

monopoly's picture

Bouncing along the bottom until the bottom falls apart.

GubbermintWorker's picture

It's called......noise.

insanelysane's picture

George Soros says that Germans need to buy houses in US, Spain, Greece, Italy, Ireland, France, UK, Japan,............

HardlyZero's picture

And some wealthy are building and moving to new homes.  BFD.

Gentrification is probably on the upswing into the center cities...these are where UTILITIES will become KING.

Got Water?  Got Electric ?  Got natGAS ?

If you are on the city outskirts you are effectively OFFLINE or OFFGRID.

Get your better/central address...while you can at a reasonable price.

Seer's picture

Got FOOD, bitch?

I have wood for fuel.  The electrical gadgets will, over time, become worthless.

Enjoy your city life!

AbbeBrel's picture

Thanks that comment made my day!!! :-)   IT WAS REALLY FUNNY (sorry for being so loud :-) 

francis_sawyer's picture

So I'm basically wondering that as they start bulldozing houses to clear inventory, will the banks still carry the bulldozed house as an asset on the balance sheet /rhetorical...

Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Clear inventory? Nah. They are going to start bulldozing houses because there is no basic maintenance like winterizing. I came across a house recently where the people moved out and left the water on in the basement. Nobody knew it until the neighbors saw water running down the driveway.

The "value" of many of these houses is the cost of demolition.

Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

Ever seen mold creep up the walls from the baseboard in an empty house? I have. Remediation is not cheap. Neither is lung disease.

Freewheelin Franklin's picture

I'm in the NE. Mold isn't as big of a problem as say, down South. But don't try to tell that to the insurance companies.

We had a house where the plumber had to move a second floor toilet. He forgot to glue one of his joints. It held for about a month, believe it or not. The damage wasn't too bad, but the insurance company wanted every piece of drywall that got just a little wet, replaced. It about doubled the cost of repairs. They paid for it, so I didn't really care.  And did I mention, it happened the night before the family was leaving for a 2 week vacation. No shit.

Xinu's picture

With the market taking a beating a dose of hopium was in order.  This is very bullish!  (rolls eyes)

Caviar Emptor's picture

In a word, new households ain't got the bucks, the confidence or the desire to commit to 30 years of debt-slavery. Considering the outlook for jobs, advancement, social mobility, incomes and net worth it's a damn solid business decision. 

jowenchrist's picture

Damn straight CE ! Damn straight!

JohnKozac's picture

...considering soaring property taxes, maintenance costs, insurance,  utilities, can you commit to a 30 year mortgage?


That's probably why I see more and more unmowed lawns, borken windows, garbage in the streets....and that's the nice neigborhood!

Caviar Emptor's picture

Precisely, @John! It's the combo: Cost structure too high, incomes too low. Call it Bi-something

rufusbird's picture

You guys are scaring me. I thought it was only in my city!

killallthefiat's picture

The definition of beat for the NAR is "(v) a term used to create optimism, only to be revised downward in three weeks"

GubbermintWorker's picture

I wonder what that chart would look like if it was adjusted on a per 1,000 person basis thus taking into account the increase in population since 1960. Bet it would be butt ugly!

buchesky's picture

Well, clearly it's a bottom.

mayhem_korner's picture



So after this HUGE beat, the market in the past 30 months is still below any time in the prior 50 years?

Where can I buy some lenses like the ones the MSM wears when they report this stuff?