Moments ago new home sales came in at 369K, a "big beat" to expectations of a 347K print and up from the 343K previously. What does this mean? The chart below sums it up.
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The disintigration will continue and there is no power great enough to stop it. Aggregate demand collapse.
Fewer homes being sold is a good thing!
Fall off a cliff and then rise up 5.5%?
Behold the look of a post-bubble economy. Japan here we come
By the time you toss out the cup and grab the pail it wont matter. The water will continue to wash in...violently.
If that chart is considered UP, then you might want to talk to your doctor about a prescription for Viagra.
Better yet, if you want a second opinion, ask the wife.
You're ugly too!
"Fall off a cliff and then rise up 5.5%?"
Dead Cat Bounce.
Is there resistance above from the 1966 new homes print?
Hey! "Bumbles bounce!" (http://www.flickr.com/photos/scottod/2109407586/)
Sure is, I know a recovery when i find one!
The lowest of the lows for the past 50 years is the highest of the highs for the past 2 years.
Bloomey shilling for Oby.
The head fakes just keep on coming. Sort of reminds me how we saw the smart people* went broke in 1929, then the really smart people went broke in 1932, and finally the really really smart people went broke in 1937. BTFD!
(I was going to write "money" instead of people, but there is a human toll to all of this.)
Note that the numbers increase after the end of every 'recession', except the last one
I also noticed that these "dumb" money retail investors (aka homebuyers) have incredible predictive power -- it looks to me that every recession was preceded by a decline in new home buying.
I agree. This graph reflects the current situation within a historical context. Beyond what they say the figures for this month compared to last month, this level remains very low. Evidence of the difficulties of the economy to recover.
Here's more chart porn from Doctor Bubble on the median house pricing change in the 20 largest metros since 2006.
Pretty accurate indicator of why household net worth has been crushed !
Houston/Dallas still in reset from the "savings and loan" debotch of the Keating Five erra-- just shows how long these "burst bubbles" take to reinflate.
And ... they don't want mean ole investors buying houses at their true economic value.. Nope can't have that. Price discovery is a bitch. Hey Benny how many banksters does it take to kill an economy?
Evidently just one
Aggregate demand collapse Indeed! the chart goes back 50 years and we're at lowest in all that time.Population has more than doubled.
Coportists have decided thier earlier bites not big enough.
A tipping point is approaching,something along the lines of French Revolution.
Aggregate demand. Sounds like something the Ancients had. Wonderous people. Soon there will be an Ancient Aliens episode on the history channel explaining aggregate demand and stonehenge.
That was a quarry/stone mason joke BTW.
Err, not much?
looks like the nas chart from 99 to 01..
This housing chart, the nas chart... fucking amateur hour. Try this one (DJIA 1920-1940):
Have a nice day!
Sipderman Towels with a new home
Rock that hill on a Burton !!
I think the trendline is definitely broken in that chart.
They only need it to do that about one or two more decades and they can get through the inventory.
Bouncing along the bottom until the bottom falls apart.
George Soros says that Germans need to buy houses in US, Spain, Greece, Italy, Ireland, France, UK, Japan,............
And some wealthy are building and moving to new homes. BFD.
Gentrification is probably on the upswing into the center cities...these are where UTILITIES will become KING.
Got Water? Got Electric ? Got natGAS ?
If you are on the city outskirts you are effectively OFFLINE or OFFGRID.
Get your better/central address...while you can at a reasonable price.
Got FOOD, bitch?
I have wood for fuel. The electrical gadgets will, over time, become worthless.
Enjoy your city life!
Thanks that comment made my day!!! :-) IT WAS REALLY FUNNY (sorry for being so loud :-)
So I'm basically wondering that as they start bulldozing houses to clear inventory, will the banks still carry the bulldozed house as an asset on the balance sheet /rhetorical...
Clear inventory? Nah. They are going to start bulldozing houses because there is no basic maintenance like winterizing. I came across a house recently where the people moved out and left the water on in the basement. Nobody knew it until the neighbors saw water running down the driveway.
The "value" of many of these houses is the cost of demolition.
Ever seen mold creep up the walls from the baseboard in an empty house? I have. Remediation is not cheap. Neither is lung disease.
I'm in the NE. Mold isn't as big of a problem as say, down South. But don't try to tell that to the insurance companies.
We had a house where the plumber had to move a second floor toilet. He forgot to glue one of his joints. It held for about a month, believe it or not. The damage wasn't too bad, but the insurance company wanted every piece of drywall that got just a little wet, replaced. It about doubled the cost of repairs. They paid for it, so I didn't really care. And did I mention, it happened the night before the family was leaving for a 2 week vacation. No shit.
With the market taking a beating a dose of hopium was in order. This is very bullish! (rolls eyes)
In a word, new households ain't got the bucks, the confidence or the desire to commit to 30 years of debt-slavery. Considering the outlook for jobs, advancement, social mobility, incomes and net worth it's a damn solid business decision.
Damn straight CE ! Damn straight!
...considering soaring property taxes, maintenance costs, insurance, utilities, etc....how can you commit to a 30 year mortgage?
That's probably why I see more and more unmowed lawns, borken windows, garbage in the streets....and that's the nice neigborhood!
Precisely, @John! It's the combo: Cost structure too high, incomes too low. Call it Bi-something
You guys are scaring me. I thought it was only in my city!
The definition of beat for the NAR is "(v) a term used to create optimism, only to be revised downward in three weeks"
I wonder what that chart would look like if it was adjusted on a per 1,000 person basis thus taking into account the increase in population since 1960. Bet it would be butt ugly!
Well, clearly it's a bottom.
or another ledge...
So after this HUGE beat, the market in the past 30 months is still below any time in the prior 50 years?
Where can I buy some lenses like the ones the MSM wears when they report this stuff?
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