New Home Sales Make It 12 Out Of 14 Economic Misses

Tyler Durden's picture

Following last night's post on the destruction of the positive trend in macro data (as expectations once again extrapolated to infinity have missed miserably), New Home Sales made it 12 of 14 this morning as they missed horribly. Against an expectation of a +1.3% gain, new home sales fell 1.6% MoM but what is even more shocking (and surely in retrospect would have caused the market to subside aggressively) is the massive revision of the previous month. From a -0.9% 'modest' fall, January's data was revised to a massive 5.4% drop MoM - the largest drop in 13 months! This is the largest downward revision since March 2009. Perhaps KB Home is not the outlier and the 80% rally in the Homebuilder ETF was a little overdone, eh Bob?

13 month lows in January for the new home sales MoM change and the largest downward 'reality' revision since March 2009...


KB Home's reality check this morning may out some context into the insanity of this move...


Charts: Bloomberg

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Pladizow's picture

Bobby MacFerrin that shit!


Why would these idiots want to build more homes when there is such a backlog of foreclosures and upside down mortgages? Insanity!!! Repeat prior mistakes and hope for a different outcome. 

Bob's picture

When all you have is a hammer . . .

Rainman's picture

ooops...the old pent up demand for newness con ain't workin this time. Maybe next year, or the next, or the....

tempo's picture

Nothing gets build w/o a Govt subsidy and guarantee!! Thats why we have a trillion dollar annual deficit.

faustian bargain's picture

Well, that and the fact that the Fed is there to generously cover that deficit spending.

tempo's picture

With the prevailing worldwide wage rate of $1.25/hr (Foxconn)and a trillion dollar of subprime debt (student loans) on our college graduates, how can anyone w a brain think there will be a real economic or housing recovery. March madness should be youth insanity and pain.

Jay_Son's picture

What the hell happened to WTI just before 9am?

mayhem_korner's picture



Goldman testing it's latest flash-crash algos.  Looks like they "pass".

navy62802's picture

Tru dat! Good question.

Jay_Son's picture

Ah.  Just heard that Iranian exports may drop by 300k bpd, computer buy orders triggered.  Hilarious.

Ayn Rand's picture

Missed?  Against a phony "expected" number?

SheepDog-One's picture

Another 'lowered expectations' consensus number like a highjump bar buried 3 feet underground.

kralizec's picture

Bullshitters bullshitting themselves and ending up in deeper bullshit.

mayhem_korner's picture



Looks like the spring rush faded before it began.

Fred Hayek's picture

Where's that guy who contributed an article here a couple days ago trying to cheerlead everyone into believing that the housing market was back?  I hope he has the guts to show up in this thread.

Kayman's picture
Existing home sales signal rebound that is real

jcaz's picture

Bob is busy dusting off his gold jacket-  Century 21 called, they want him back.....

fuu's picture

From Bob's bio:


"Robert Brusca Ph.D. has been an economist on Wall Street since 1977. He has been a Division Chief at the NY Fed, a Fed-watcher at a major NY commercial bank and Chief Economist at major international securities firm. He is now an independent voice on the economy global trends and the political scene, operating a consulting firm in New York City."

So douchebag.

Hulk's picture

Bob must be related to that Happy Talker  Kudlow... Bob, you really have to stop reading that NAR bullshit...

piceridu's picture

Next week Bob plans to write about Chinese solars

blunderdog's picture

"operating a consulting firm" is newspeak for "looking for work."

Dapper Dan's picture

new RobertBrusca

Vote up!

Vote down!


why do you have to be a snarky, lobotomized pessimist to write here?

I don't think so


Who snarky now?


SheepDog-One's picture

But we're still FEELING better about things....right?? Cue CNBC laugh track.

Cdad's picture

Only the folks at the BlowHorn [CNBC] could have been surprised by the housing numbers, and by the earnings debacle on KBH.  Way to go BlowHorn...out there on the cutting edge of financial "news" reporting!

jus_lite_reading's picture

They can spew all the lies they want but FACTS are FACTS. I see what is going on in my neighborhood where existing homes are on the market for steep discounts (like 75%) against much newer (and lower quality Chinese sheetrock cookie cutter homes like Troll Bros) and THEY ARE NOT SELLING... so HOW is it that NEW homes (according to the frauds on Whore Street) are selling at such numbers? BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT!!

I can buy a fully renovated 5 bedroom colonial with a 3 car garage in stunning condition (and superior quality) for $200k flat while a very similar new cookie cutter home sells for $700k... you do the math!!


WonderDawg's picture

Not only that, but if the home was built in the early '90's or earlier, the construction and quality of the materials is probably much stronger.

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

So true, used to peruse the local McMansions models for a hoot. Pretty much a sea of cathedral ceiling particle boards as far as I could tell, just opening one drawer told the story. They got smarter with the newer ones and glued the drawers shut. I guess that's what you do when you're selling dreams.

Miffed :-)

Village Smithy's picture

They sicken me. When this thing goes off the cliff people will realize CNBS was pushing as hard as anyone.

SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Thou shall not confuse facts with really well done propaganda and lies

Dnice0123's picture

Obama The Builder, Yes We Can!!

Kayman's picture

Obama the Dilettante President. Building a large ego on an unstable foundation.

Bob's picture

Just what I was thinkin', Tyler . . .

slaughterer's picture

Bots managed that plunge expertly within a minute or two. 

Code for today: Got .... to .... end  .... week .... green.

Atomizer's picture

We should start building houses like we build pipelines. BTE will perk up the MoM results.

Global Hunter's picture

its bullish for multi family residential builders!!!

mayhem_korner's picture



From CNBC: The housing market continues to be hobbled by an oversupply of used homes on the market - especially from foreclosures, many of which sell well below their market value.

When is the "market value" of something different than what someone pays for it in the market?  Inquiring minds want to know.

Global Hunter's picture

Thanks for bringing it to my attention something I'd completely overlooked.  You're right of course market value is not some arbitrary figure, its amazing how distorted simple and fundamental terms become.  Newspeak

gaoptimize's picture

The NAR decides what "Market Value" is.  Obviously, a lot of people are getting bargains.  It's never been a better time to buy! /sar

WonderDawg's picture

One day in the future, the NAR will be universally ridiculed for being the propoganda pump machine that it is. But maybe that's just me, I'm an optimist.

WoodMizer's picture

Five more and the dealer is gonna have to take a hit.

campag's picture

yet another FLASH trade on oil - good job ICE have all this under control.

great move on Brent $124 to $127to $125

sobered me up

Global Hunter's picture

thankfully those new limits on april 1st will take care of the problem you just witnessed.  Nothing to worry about lol lol

prodigious_idea's picture

And if Bankster of America is getting into the home rental business we're in for some interesting times.