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New Home Sales Make It 12 Out Of 14 Economic Misses
Following last night's post on the destruction of the positive trend in macro data (as expectations once again extrapolated to infinity have missed miserably), New Home Sales made it 12 of 14 this morning as they missed horribly. Against an expectation of a +1.3% gain, new home sales fell 1.6% MoM but what is even more shocking (and surely in retrospect would have caused the market to subside aggressively) is the massive revision of the previous month. From a -0.9% 'modest' fall, January's data was revised to a massive 5.4% drop MoM - the largest drop in 13 months! This is the largest downward revision since March 2009. Perhaps KB Home is not the outlier and the 80% rally in the Homebuilder ETF was a little overdone, eh Bob?
13 month lows in January for the new home sales MoM change and the largest downward 'reality' revision since March 2009...
KB Home's reality check this morning may out some context into the insanity of this move...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Bobby MacFerrin that shit!
Why would these idiots want to build more homes when there is such a backlog of foreclosures and upside down mortgages? Insanity!!! Repeat prior mistakes and hope for a different outcome.
When all you have is a hammer . . .
... everything looks like a turd.
ahahahaa
Laughing my ass off!
ooops...the old pent up demand for newness con ain't workin this time. Maybe next year, or the next, or the....
Nothing gets build w/o a Govt subsidy and guarantee!! Thats why we have a trillion dollar annual deficit.
Well, that and the fact that the Fed is there to generously cover that deficit spending.
With the prevailing worldwide wage rate of $1.25/hr (Foxconn)and a trillion dollar of subprime debt (student loans) on our college graduates, how can anyone w a brain think there will be a real economic or housing recovery. March madness should be youth insanity and pain.
What the hell happened to WTI just before 9am?
Goldman testing it's latest flash-crash algos. Looks like they "pass".
Tru dat! Good question.
Ah. Just heard that Iranian exports may drop by 300k bpd, computer buy orders triggered. Hilarious.
Missed? Against a phony "expected" number?
Another 'lowered expectations' consensus number like a highjump bar buried 3 feet underground.
Bullshitters bullshitting themselves and ending up in deeper bullshit.
Looks like the spring rush faded before it began.
Where's that guy who contributed an article here a couple days ago trying to cheerlead everyone into believing that the housing market was back? I hope he has the guts to show up in this thread.
Submitted by RobertBrusca on 03/21/2012 - 16:13
Naturally rhetoric supercedes facts.
Bob is busy dusting off his gold jacket- Century 21 called, they want him back.....
From Bob's bio:
"Robert Brusca Ph.D. has been an economist on Wall Street since 1977. He has been a Division Chief at the NY Fed, a Fed-watcher at a major NY commercial bank and Chief Economist at major international securities firm. He is now an independent voice on the economy global trends and the political scene, operating a consulting firm in New York City."
So douchebag.
Bob must be related to that Happy Talker Kudlow... Bob, you really have to stop reading that NAR bullshit...
Next week Bob plans to write about Chinese solars
"operating a consulting firm" is newspeak for "looking for work."
new RobertBrusca
Vote up! 1
Vote down! -6
why do you have to be a snarky, lobotomized pessimist to write here?
I don't think so
Who snarky now?
But we're still FEELING better about things....right?? Cue CNBC laugh track.
Only the folks at the BlowHorn [CNBC] could have been surprised by the housing numbers, and by the earnings debacle on KBH. Way to go BlowHorn...out there on the cutting edge of financial "news" reporting!
They can spew all the lies they want but FACTS are FACTS. I see what is going on in my neighborhood where existing homes are on the market for steep discounts (like 75%) against much newer (and lower quality Chinese sheetrock cookie cutter homes like Troll Bros) and THEY ARE NOT SELLING... so HOW is it that NEW homes (according to the frauds on Whore Street) are selling at such numbers? BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT!!
I can buy a fully renovated 5 bedroom colonial with a 3 car garage in stunning condition (and superior quality) for $200k flat while a very similar new cookie cutter home sells for $700k... you do the math!!
GAME OVER FOR THE FRAUDS ON WHORE STREET!!
Not only that, but if the home was built in the early '90's or earlier, the construction and quality of the materials is probably much stronger.
So true, used to peruse the local McMansions models for a hoot. Pretty much a sea of cathedral ceiling particle boards as far as I could tell, just opening one drawer told the story. They got smarter with the newer ones and glued the drawers shut. I guess that's what you do when you're selling dreams.
Miffed :-)
They sicken me. When this thing goes off the cliff people will realize CNBS was pushing as hard as anyone.
Thou shall not confuse facts with really well done propaganda and lies
Obama The Builder, Yes We Can!!
Obama the Dilettante President. Building a large ego on an unstable foundation.
Just what I was thinkin', Tyler . . .
Bots managed that plunge expertly within a minute or two.
Code for today: Got .... to .... end .... week .... green.
We should start building houses like we build pipelines. BTE will perk up the MoM results.
its bullish for multi family residential builders!!!
From CNBC: The housing market continues to be hobbled by an oversupply of used homes on the market - especially from foreclosures, many of which sell well below their market value.
When is the "market value" of something different than what someone pays for it in the market? Inquiring minds want to know.
Thanks for bringing it to my attention something I'd completely overlooked. You're right of course market value is not some arbitrary figure, its amazing how distorted simple and fundamental terms become. Newspeak
The NAR decides what "Market Value" is. Obviously, a lot of people are getting bargains. It's never been a better time to buy! /sar
One day in the future, the NAR will be universally ridiculed for being the propoganda pump machine that it is. But maybe that's just me, I'm an optimist.
Five more and the dealer is gonna have to take a hit.
yet another FLASH trade on oil - good job ICE have all this under control.
great move on Brent $124 to $127to $125
sobered me up
thankfully those new limits on april 1st will take care of the problem you just witnessed. Nothing to worry about lol lol
And if Bankster of America is getting into the home rental business we're in for some interesting times.
Matt Taibbi's latest targeted the good folks at BAC:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/bank-of-america-too-crooked-to-fail-20120314
Thanks bob! Cliff notes summary:
What a great country!
pods
I can't wait until BofA comes to offer to rent me the home I own. They say the rent will be less than the mortgage payment that hasn't been paid since July 09. That was $617/month. This is a 3BR colonial, 1600 sq.ft., but the kicker is that I would want what any renter would... repairs.
Let's see: detached 2-car garage needs new roof. South side of house needs new roof. Front steps are crumbling, need to be replaced, and how about a new refrigerator to replace the 38-year-old one and a new range, because only one burner works, and how about replacing the whole kitchen ceiling because the plaster is a mess after that little accident about 35 years ago which made the upstairs tub and shower inoperable and was never fixed?
Then you might want to fix the septic system, or, if you're up to it, connect to the municipal sewer system, and maybe fix all the ceilings that have cracks, peeling paint, falling plaster. And the windows... abut 12 of them have cracks and maybe some new rugs and, I'm tired of mowing the lawn so you'll pay for a service, right? What's that? I can just keep the house?
Oh, I was so excited about renting it and having you pay for all the upgrades my parents didn't do over the past 35 years.
Seriously, I told my sister about this - she and her husband own and rent out about 35 units. They know the ins and outs of being landlords. (Hint: it ain't easy) She couldn't stop laughing. Banks now want to be landlords? That's rich. Yet another business for them to fail at.
I hear they're calling the program the Own to Rent program.
Unbelievable!
That's neat and all, but the action goes down like this: (1) global foreclosure settlement with governmental authorities; (2) backstop of any losses sustained as a result of a deadbeat borrower; (3) creation of rocket dockets (what states that don't have them already) for foreclosures; (4) ramp up of foreclosures and/or a more steady stream; (5) sale of the underlying properties en masse to principal actors of the frauds/hedge funds for pennies on the dollar; (6) hire local property management companies to do all the leg work; and (7) collect the monthly checks.
This will end up working the same way with the securities side...
Obviously the best return is on getting a putback... but, if all else fails, being a landlord might not be too bad... just not what you expected going into the thing (for the truly innocent anyway).
In short, they'll outsource the landlord job and collect the checks.
12 out of 14 misses. Almost as good as Stolper.
In Steven Chu's grading system, that'd earn them an A. Maybe an A minus.
HFT's have algos written specifically not to look beyond headlines and to neglect revisions-- it's patriotism that stocks/inflation ramp up because everyone needs to realize we're in a recovery.
Central planning logic and their market manipulating crony mathematicians (read hedge funds/banks that buy the mathematicians).
All this after 10 trillions fresh new currency worldwide? Bernanke got be fired.
I heard that the number of empty for-sale homes in the U.S. is 10 million or so. If that is true, and the country only adds 2 to 3 million people per year (population growth), AND more and more people cannot afford a new home anyway (SNAP cards are not good for houses....yet), then why are home builders building homes? Why are people bullish on the housing sector?
Simple, because the cost to repair an existing home along with all other considerations, is more expensive than building a new one or, alternatively, is more of a hiccup than the homeowner is willing to stand to make the sale... also, a vacant home is not necessarily a habitable home...
We have too many home builders. During the last crash only one or two shut down. We need to get rid of a bunch more before builders are on an even slide. Here in Nevada we are in a housing depression, and it is just getting worse.
Piss ani is an idiot. "Outlier". What a crock. And it is all getting so much better that the insolvent BAC wants to rent you your home instead of foreclosing on you. Now, how is that for a bank that cares about you. I guess if they rent it out instead of foreclosing they do not have to mark it as a "loss". My, never thought of that before.
SPR RELEASE CLOSER
This series is not SA'd but certainly the nice weather should have helped sales. Here's the spin, people were too busy getting fresh air and playing outside with their kids to go home shopping. <sarc>
Looks like the "boilermaker" algo is going. Pump pre market, sell open, issue bad news, repump.
Fuck that.
Bullish on QEIII.
Humpty Dumpty
The King has no clothes.
Alice in Wonderland
The Wizzard of Oz
What we need is
A Great American Children's story
or rhyme for this episode
Any takers?
Aaaand another step closer to our inevitable economic collapse.
I forgot about the Matrix
This isn't a new home, but it is set for auction.
The problem is; it is being sold at auction by a party that is a complete stranger to the action.
That would be US Bank. And despite the evidence contained in the Pooling and Servicing Agreement we found that seems to indicate that Wachovia is likely the real party of interest.
(well on the paper anyways because they just vanished from the picture)
The PSA is embedded on the hamlet link. The defendant (Delina Pierre) filed a "Request for Judicial Notice" yesterday but the judge did not care.
A writ of possession has been ordered and she faces imminent eviction.
If anybody out there is feeling their oats and wants to try to help the Pierre family (whom I do not know) please call Ocwen at (561) 682-8000 and tell them to stop what they are doing.
Case No. 09-004170. US Bank National Association vs Dilina Peirre. (They even spelled her name wrong in the Lis Pendens, it's Delina)
US BANK PICKS HOUSE OUT OF HAT, DECIDES TO FORECLOSE, JUST FOR FUN
I pray that Tyler reads this and brings the Zero Hedge hammer down on their heads.
These are just some growing pains until the word gets out a little better... I promise you that the instant any attorney with even a rudimentary amount of clout around these parts says the charade is over, then the foreclosures will stop... that said, we don't have many foreclosures here because largely we've been unaffected by the economic downturn...
This has just been escalated to the very top.
I am going to stop this eviction; and in about 15 minutes I will have confirmation.
Maybe I'm dumb but I'm not stupid. US Bank will not get a free house. Not this time.
Like I said, I don't know this family but I'm happy for them almost to the point of tears.
Keep up the good work. While you're ultimately doing it for deadbeats, you are tangentially upholding the rule of law... and on an incredibly important and universal issue. Not to toot your horn, but literally the entire remainder of our governmental system might rest on how this single issue is handled... (and given the transgressions thus far, I'm not sure trust can be saved, but still...). And I'm not talking about "economics" (e.g. the fire and brimstone of what happens when all the fraud is revealed and putbacks, nullifications, and defaults are properly recognized by all involved), I'm talking about trust and confidence in our system of government... something far broader than the economy (although oft tied at the hip). This issue is so tied to J6P (who need only observe what happens to know that the system is broken) that how it is handled will determine our fate post collapse.
Hopefully no one wants to ditch the mortgage and just enforce the note ;) Or otherwise decide a declaratory action pre-foreclosure is a better idea...
I'm just wondering how many times the sorry bastards have collected on this particular house... you say they aren't going to get a free house, but they've probably already got 2 (given multiple bets with retarded TBTF counterparties) and are going for the trifecta. At least the servicer will still get its take for servicing a loan that can't be collected... my tax dollars at work.
these misses are now going to be called BRUSCAS
<golf clap>
And STILL stuck in The Red Zone.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/03/23/new-home-sales-drop-1-6-still-stuck-in-the-red-zone/
NOPE everybody's wrong because the NAR says Feb. was the best month ever.
search the blogs/forums and mainsteemnews sites with RE talk and all you see read is "RE IS TERNING AROUND" and then thay doen't alow coemnts for other to show othwise. it's all i big Fen scam now, the country is being run by scammers who will do anything to get the sheeply suckerd into more debt. what a f'en shame this country is terning into"
Most of the new houses in the exurbs of the American sprawled out wastelands are fucking worthless. Anybody with two eyes and a brain can see it. Mark my words, they'll become slums.
The cities of this nation were built out long ago, there were some good real estate developments left in the mid 90s, but it's been all downhill since.
The Wile E. Coyote scenario continues...
SPX daily chart with rising wedge enclosed by substantial megaphone pattern.
http://stks.co/31QM