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New Home Sales Miss By Most In 20 Months
But, but, but... the housing recovery. Was demand pulled forward? Could it be that warm weather encouraged people to venture out of their igloos? It appears so as new home sales plunge 8.4% MoM on expectations of a rise of 0.7%, days after the already fudged NAR data showed a huge miss in existing home sales as well. This is the first miss since October of last year and the biggest miss of expectations since October 2010. This is the biggest absolute drop since January with the actual number of new homes sold, not annualized, in June was 33,000 - of which a mere 1,000 was in the NorthEast. Median home prices also fell appreciably. Hope.is.fading as we note that of the 33,000 total new houses sold in June, 11,000 have not even been started, and 11,000 are still under construction and the number of homes sold at a price over $750,000 was less than 1,000.
Median home prices down 3.2% and are now the lowest since January:
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Bloomberg Epic Fail, Wednesday Morning Edition
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-25/purchases-of-new-u-s-homes-prob...
I clicked on that link and the breaking news headline directly above it states:
"Sales of New U.S. Homes Unexpectedly Fall"
The financial media are the worst kind of scum. You have far more to fear from these cockroaches than some dope in a cave with an AK-47.
But I was told by zillow’s Sr. economist yesterday that we hit the housing market bottom… how could this be?
Can we have our QE, now?
Demand pull?
Ben B: I demand you pull my finger.
too busy pulling his putz
I am unexpectedly surprised!
We will get QE grasshopper however, it will do little to nothing.
you think that the elititst marxist little hebe that owns bloomberg and wants to tell people how much soda to drink is going to print the truth? and i thought my 3 and 4 year old are naive.
Bloomberg has literally spun out of control. Financial lies and support for the banking cartel is one thing but pop culture obscenities are another. Bloomberg Businessweek has become a rabid comic book embarrassment to all forms of printed material.
The latest giant hit piece on Mitt Romney (July 16 – July 22 issue) features an amateurishly drawn cartoon-like figure of Jesus on the cover blessing the Mormon church’s business enterprises: “And thou shalt build a shopping mall, own stock in Burger King, and open a Polynesian theme park in Hawaii that shall be largely exempt from the frustrations of tax..."
The two kneeling Mormons, with Jesus’s hands on their bowed heads, say “Hallelujah.”
The cover story‘s inside headlines read: “Latter-day Lucre” and “Holy Holdings,” mocking Jesus with a drawing of the traditional praying hands with hundred dollar bills extended between the hands.
Credit for the cover artwork goes to Steve Caplin.
Whoa. I just looked at businessweek.com front page. The Politics "coverage" are all hit pieces against Mittens. Looks more like the Daily Kos or HuffPo than a business publication.
The cover story‘s inside headlines read: “Latter-day Lucre” and “Holy Holdings,” mocking Jesus with a drawing of the traditional praying hands with hundred dollar bills extended between the hands.
Credit for the cover artwork goes to Steve Caplin.
Ok, that's it!
Time to go full bore Islamic Jihad!(Cue music pls)
They Cannot insult the Saviour and Lord of all humanity!.
Death to the Infidels!,they must be punished!
The point of my comment is that Bloomberg is a combination financial brand name and New York political mouthpiece. It’s an election year and one of the candidates is a Mormon and this is an extremely amateurish attack, not on Mormonism, but on the symbol of the Christian faith.
Am I to understand that this amateurish cartoon and incredibly biased information about the Mormons finds you in support?
Persecution is not involved. Obviously, this magazine will not suffer any legal repercussions for its coverage. It would not be the case, however, if Judaism or the state of Israel was the subject of the mockery. Because advertising bans and news conferences from Abe Foxman would follow in mere days following the publication, and political repercussions would be next for public officials who refused to offer their criticism.
Obviously, Bloomberg has no fear of Christians; but, obviously, Christians should have a fear of Bloomberg.
Bloomberg seems to be taking over the number 1 shill spot from CNBS. Maybe Michael is worried about his portfolio.
Still as good as September 2010 Bitchezz!!!
~Home is where you hide your PMs.~
I just looked at my house on Zillow and laughed so hard. I then looked around and decided how much I love my neighborhood and would never, ever want to leave. These thoughts occured to me freely and were not influenced at all by the price of my home and the fact that I no longer have a choice. Yup.
Your feeling of being glued in place amplified millions of times over is why the country can't get out of the slump. There is so much sludge in the gears from overleveraged positions that can't be unwound that the machinery is slowing toward a stop. Haven't heard a single feasible plan yet that would get things unstuck.
What does "sold" mean? Are these merely more zero down houses that add to the massive underwater pool? How many of these sales involved 20% down, a sign the buyer can actually afford the house?
My guess is 5-10% of these 'buyers' will default wihtin 3 years sticking the FHA with more losses and inventory.
Well, with the younger generation getting all those great paying jobs and ridding themselves of all debts they'll be buying McMansions in no time at all.
Oh wait. Maybe not.
Housing market? What market?
you mean a market with price discovery, no govmt subsidies, no tax incentives, no supressed interest rates, non-fudged statistics, and brokers and agents that have your best interest in mind?
DFW new home sales up 15% ytd.
One step closer to the big print.
C;mon big print! I'll participate in the manistream economy just long enough to pay off my student loans with the price of a loaf of bread and then go UNDAGROWNDDD!
you want to unleash the consumer? overnight add a zero to everyone checking/savings balance up to the FDIC limit, add two zeros to SNAP payments for a month, then sit back and watch the party!
you want to unleash the consumer? overnight add a zero to everyone checking/savings balance up to the FDIC limit, add two zeros to SNAP payments for a month, then sit back and watch the party!
Sure couldn't do anymore damage than they have done, and they would be hero's..........Oh, wait.......that would mean 4 more yrs of the illegal Kenyan/
Forget it, PASS
Airdropping fresh stacks of $1000s with the Bernank's face on them (condolences to Grover) from black helicopters would be SO much cooler and just as inflationary.
How is paying off debt inflationary? My guess is most people would pay off debt if blessed with pennies from heaven.
and then what? the majority of people living paycheck to paycheck will suddenly become savers? unloading the debt burden gives the sheep a little more pasture but it doesn't open the gates to consumer prosperity.
The disintegration continued and there was no power great enough to stop it.
Goldilocks is back!
This report is erroneous. Home sales had a huge beat if you read the papers yesterday before the report so that is all that matters; "the markets" have both a huge beat and miss priced in.
... " "the markets" have both a huge beat and miss priced in" ...
quantum market theory?
quantum market theory?
Sarcasm.
My linkedin newsfeed is like from an alternate reality. God help anyone making deciosn on this crap.
Housing starts in June highest in four years
usatoday.com - Building permits for future construction of single-family homes edged up to the highest level since March 2010.
bloomberg.com - U.S. homebuilders are an attractive investment as the housing market starts a “strong” recovery that may drive a surge in new-home sales, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report today.
Record Low Mortgage Rates Helping To Stir The Housing Market
realtytimes.com - In Freddie Mac's results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, the average 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgage hitting new all-time record lows along with the 5-year ARM. The average 30-year fixed has been below 4.00...
"My linkedin newsfeed" <<<<<<<<<<< there is your problem.
The media bullshit blitz will continue until it's more profitable to print the truth, which will be on or around the 12th of Never.
They can rent the boxes out to Aliens....
Surprisingly the home builders sold off BEFORE the data was released. Leaky leaky....??
Nooooooo. Simply 'coincidence'.
Bankers and Bloomberg are telling you to buy when they are selling. What else is new ?
When you "outsource" all your manufacturing jobs, the baseline of an economy, where is the demand going to come from ?
Manufacturing credit and bullshit does not an economy make.
Can I get a mortgage rate at LIBOR now?
The Federal Gov't wants sooooo bad for the housing market to recover. All recoveries were led by housing.
What does THAT tell you about our situation?
they must have had the "housing recovery" while I was at the beach because I TOTALLY missed it.
Permits do not equal starts, actual starts are much worse. I saw a ZH Member post a great idea a few months ago-no time to search his name right now. But, we could suck up the shadow inventory very quickly by "granting" free home ownership to individuals that would waive their right to Social Security. These "grants" would come with government sponsored and approved quiet titles.
That is a socialist approach. Put the houses on the market. Sell them for what they are worth and take the loss. Stop "fixing" everything and anything. Fixing hasn't worked.
A socialist approach? To begin to develope a plan to end social security and the trillions of unpaid liabilities that go with it? Your legion of "Deep Thinkers' have no other plan but to let things go?
Put the houses on the market. Sell them for what they are worth...
Sounds good for about half a second, but then you have to deal with restructuring all the major banks (bankruptcy/liquidation/etc) and would probably spike the number of underwater and upside-down mortgage holders walking away from their mortgages.
The politicians don't have the balls to do anything about the real problem, and this is sufficient scale that your suggestion would probably crash civil society.
and the piggies who don't need SS would snap them up as rental properties
Someday there will be a book written, an expose, penned by the guy who for the past 4 years has been responsible for keeping the XHB levitating beyond all reality.
wrong. that guy will be pushing up daisies as soon as his 'mission' is complete.
We would be in a recovery mode already if the gov would have let the market collapse 4 years ago. Maybe a lower baseline but a lot of debt would've liquidated and we could be rising from the ashes. This is just death by a thousand cuts
Well, that is the Al Qaeda method.
We would be in a recovery mode already if the gov would have let the market collapse
Yeah, but then they might have lost their seats at the big power-monger's table.
These guys KNOW they are getting way more than they could even get on their merits, so they'll keep the evil game going at all costs.
The fucking economy has cancer. The tumor(debt) needs to be removed. All the morphine(Zirp,stimulus,EBT,etc) in the world ain't gonna save the patient. The fucking tumor has to go and all the pain that goes with the surgery
In the spirit of selfless promotion, I linked this to my website (as I will many ZH articles) www.topthenews.com
again, rough draft but comments and emails with color are appreciated to improve it!
Housing purgatory. MBA purchase applications also falls. What happened to Goldman's rocket-like housing recovery????
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/25/here-come-the-fed-home-sales-drop-more-than-expected-mortgage-purchase-applications-drop-too/
Lets build some more ugly , energy inefficient Mcmansions! that willl get this Economy going.
My daughter wants to go look at a house with an assumable mortgage in the location she wants to buy. Assuming a mortgage would greatly reduce her closing costs, but the mortage taken in 2010 is $34,800 more than the value of the house on Zillow and the comps I am finding on Realtor.com are 100,000 less than the assumable mortgage. I'm afraid this greatly outweighs the advantages of a quick close and no closing costs. I am going to advise her not to even consider it unless the sellers are willing to come to the table with a substantial amount of cash (unlikely). They are just looking for a sucker to unload their mistake on and I think they are going to sit there.
Why doesn't a miss of this size surprise me ..... every estimate , every stat, everything coming out of Wall Street, The Fed, and the Federal Government is bull shit.
...and now they are ratcheting up talk about our guns .... ..brings to mind the famous Martin Niemoller poem .... (place updated bogies in proper places)
First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out--
Because I was not a Socialist.
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out--
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out--
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me--and there was no one left to speak for me.
I say let 'em bring it .... if they dare.
There will be a rebound for July based on what i'm seeing. However, I think the Winter is going to see more price declines again.
If rates even tick up to 4.5% .. they will be big price declines.
Rebound? And what praytell is your definition of rebound?
These numbers are BS. I live in the northeast. Houses are selling like hot cakes and sellers are getting 25% over asking price. I was almost trampled by all of the people trying to buy my neighbor's house. It is crazy here. I tell you it is absolutely crazy.
June never was a good selling month for housing. I mean the kids are out of school so why would you move. Christmas is always the best time so I am sure the numbers will improve in December.
If I was a news broadcaster I would laff when having to read that, "Housing is getting better". I hear it once a week from my local news to MSNBS. Extraordinary bull shit with a straight face over and over. It's amazing they think they have Any credibility.
Options Overnight bought more GM and SPY calls on the selloff.
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OO Account up 4.6 times since we began posting on ZH and here 2 July 2012.
No guarantees for future results, although weekly subscrioptions are guaranteed:
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ZH designated subscribers generate ZH donations.
So far all our subscribers are repeats...
The clearest evidence we'll have that housing has recovered is when folks stop seeing default as a valid economic strategy. You don't walk away from things that have actual value. (yes, I'm over generalizing here--but also looking for a benchmark that can't be finessed.)
Only folks on LSD are buying in this market. My buddy jumped on a "deal of a lifetime" house that he said dropped from a 2008 high of $1.8 to $960,000 where he "grabbed it" taking out a 30-year lead weight around his (and his family's) ankles.
It's now $765,000. What a deal!
I'll buy that $1.8 million house when it sells for less then $42 per sq foot, which is what is costs now to build in most locations. Labor is the major expense and labor costs are plunging due to the high jobless rate. When interest rates start to rise (regressing to the median of over 7%), these houses will drop even more in price. That's one reason the China Sovereign Fund is not buying RE yet. They publicly announced that RE is "still too high."
Aren't these overly optimistic builders the same ones that overbuilt the last time around?
Don't be fooled, they know better than anyone how bad it is. They aren't manufacturing houses so much anymore they're manufacturing "statistics".
I have a place in the hamptons (I'm not rich nor do I work on Wall St.). You should see the propagandaesque real estate publications trying to sell outrageously overpriced mansions with glossy design savvy font riddled pages. There are a ton of these freebies and to me they spell desperation in the market. It's almost as if they are seeking th few remaining suckers with money to buy these fucking things. I could care less what my place is worth (not much) because I would never sell it and so I hope the market disintegrates like those fake towns used for nuclear weapon detonations in New Mexico.
The future is to now as now is to the feudal system in England (or some other time in years past).
The history of the world is change. Things have never been like they used to be. The way of the world has always been morph, not start over. We are not now like our ancestors used to be. Yet we like our lives and the ancients liked theirs. Future folks won't be like us, but they will like their lives too. Morphing is the way of civilizations.
The financial system came into existance and grew to its present state as a response to this morphing (study the history of money for details). While the financial system used to exist to serve the economy, it is now trying to mold the economy to serve the financial system. Won't happen. Civilizations will continue to morph. Other, more local, financial systems will emerge to support local economies (many are already here in the form of the underground economy / black markets; Los Angeles has many of them, split along ethnic lines). I don't see any large-scale recovery of anything so long as the financial system (those guys who need to buy large houses in the Hamptons) keeps trying to be the master of the economy rather than its servant.
I was paid off on my mortgage, but decided to refi at 3% for 15Y to half its value, just to be more liquid. What a royal pain the approval process was, although I am self employed I have a very good credit rating. I feel that to qualify right now is a huge hurdle, so no buyers makes the prices drop, makes more sellers desparate.
We need some stability and confidence in the economy right now, but we are just getting is more paltitudes, more regulations, and more gov't borrowing.
Unexpectantly, we saw the word unexpected again as the paid analyists unexpectantly had unexpectedly bad predictions.
Income stability is bad for the employers, and lack of income stability pretty much eliminates any broad-based interest in loans.
No winners here.