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New "Stolper" Is Out, Says To Go Bullish EURUSD, With 1.29 Stop

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The one we have all been waiting for. Stolper about to be 9 out of 9 with a 0.000 hit rate.

The latest Eurozone PMIs have been better than expected and are now consistent with slightly positive growth.

 

At the same time, Eurozone policymakers continue to make gradual progress on the ESM and Fiscal Compact Treaties. Finally, the Fed has surprised markets with a more long-dated interest rate guidance than expected. In particular the Fed now expects "exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014," which is at the margin more dovish than anticipated by the market. All these factors suggest that EUR/$ could continue to rally in the near future and the Dollar could weaken more broadly, in line with our long-held underlying view and forecasts.

 

Some risks persist, though. The main source of Eurozone uncertainty at the moment remains the Greek PSI negotiation and potential contagion. However, the range of debated NPV reduction is relatively narrow, suggesting an agreement is not that far away. On balance, we therefore think the positive PMI and Fed surprises outweigh the remaining PSI-related concerns.

 

Overall, near-term downside risks for EUR/$ – though of course they remain – appear to have been reduced. We expect further gains in EUR/$ from current levels, in line with our constructive 3-, 6-, and 12-month forecasts. We would go long EUR/$ with a stop on a close below 1.29 for an initial target of 1.38.

Time to short EURUSD at 1.3093

 

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Wed, 01/25/2012 - 15:59 | 2097339 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

How anyone does business with GS is beyond me.  They're better off taking investment advice from the e-Trade baby.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:10 | 2097385 GenX Investor
GenX Investor's picture

This guy is pouring himself a delicious glass of cyanide kool-aid.  Mmmm mmmmmm gooooood!

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:36 | 2097508 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Anyone who uses a stop on a fiat trade is a lunatic in this environment.  You want protection, use a limit.  You want to maintain or build a position, leave it open.  Stops are worthless with this much volatility.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:41 | 2097521 LuKOsro
LuKOsro's picture

Just entered an EUR/USD short. Thanks pal!

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:50 | 2097549 forexnovaco
forexnovaco's picture

trading without stops.... hmmm.   money managment/ risk controll  together with risk/reward considerations are 90% of a traders success

be careful just saying. but i take your comment as a sarcastic market commentary

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:57 | 2097570 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Huh?  No.  With volatility this high who would think a stop could work to protect a position.  You want to protect, use a limit. 

Either be ready to build a position or limit loss.  You stop, and it runs through, you are screwed.  Stops will not help in the up coming environment, mark my words.  You are about to see $100 swings in gold daily.  The EUR/USD trade will make your head spin.  It's coming....

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 17:05 | 2097597 forexnovaco
forexnovaco's picture

your stop should be based on volatility and support/resistance considerations of course. and of course you need a limit/target else you cant calculate you risk reward. but i guess we have different trading style. but use whatever works for you just saying most traders screw it up without stops because leverage is a bitch.

never risk more than 1% of your equity on a trade. keep your drawdowns small( if you loose 50% you must make 100% to get to breakeven, if you loose just 10% you are at breakeven with approximatly11% win) so CUT YOUR LOSSES SHORT and let your profits run

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:59 | 2097573 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I'd look at $1.26 and then take the gain.  SHould be about a month before the trend reverses.  WHen it does the DXY will go to 66 in a span of weeks.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 06:44 | 2099045 Salamanda
Salamanda's picture

I couldn't agree more sir!

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:38 | 2097514 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Does this clown ever mention his multitudinous misses?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:47 | 2097541 forexnovaco
forexnovaco's picture

does this mean that goldmans prop trading desks have hit ratio of 100%. another perfect trading quarter... hmm would say thats impossible without some nice insider info in trading.

probably blankfein sucking Bens dick after his fabolous speach  

lol just joking they are of course sophisticated investors who rely on their own research and hard work and not insider info

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 19:36 | 2098054 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

have we ever stopped to think he is sending somebody else this info...it is to obvious to be this wrong and to be so right...every time...plus his name...stole r....or stop er...come on lets tighten up the tin foil, gentlemen...and ladies...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 06:19 | 2099033 schadenfreude
schadenfreude's picture

In German Stolper(n) means stumble.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 15:59 | 2097340 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

I guess he didn't hear about Portugal

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:06 | 2097370 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Or Spain.

I have a question.  If a €10 trillion LTRO is needed to put up a firewall for a Greek default, what is the total amount needed for an LTRO to safeguard against a default of Portugal, Spain...Italy?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:22 | 2097456 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

I believe that number will be measured in troy ounces

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 01:58 | 2098921 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Or scientific notation, take yer pick.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 15:59 | 2097341 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:59 | 2097574 nudlee
nudlee's picture

the comment that made this article worth reading. ty.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:00 | 2097345 greg2514
greg2514's picture

How do these people get hired. 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 06:47 | 2099046 Salamanda
Salamanda's picture

'How do they get hired'..?? Surely the bigger question is 'How do they even put their fucking pants on in the morning??!!

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:00 | 2097349 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'Time to short EURUSD at 1.3093'

But Bernanke is still talking? Bernanke or Stolper.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:02 | 2097354 Conrad Murray
Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:03 | 2097361 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

I'd love to see a picture of this guy. I bet he's really Dave Chappelle.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:04 | 2097364 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Nothing like a strong euro to really deflate Europe. This guy has his head buried in Japanese sand.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:06 | 2097367 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Actually this will be his first hit, it think. This is rigged business anyway so we have to go up with Euro for some time. Are we allies or not in fighting our enemies?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:09 | 2097381 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

I agree. I think his BA is going to .110 here.

Simply because of the short interest chart Tyler keeps posting.

At least Silver should enjoy an up Euro.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:11 | 2097393 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

.111

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:16 | 2097417 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Good call bitch.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:25 | 2097452 Silver Alert
Silver Alert's picture

Yeah, how can Tyler have it both ways, ie Gold going up (risk-on) and Euro going down (anti-Stolper / risk off)?

 

At least until the risk on/off vs gold paradigm changes to gold being risk off along with or vs. the US$.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 17:00 | 2097579 onebir
onebir's picture

I think there have been short periods were gold & USD have moved up together - eg just after new year. But not many (so far?).

Maybe the recent sell-offs have started to change the paradigm by shifting gold into the hands of longer-term holders.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:07 | 2097371 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Leverage 500 to 1. $$$

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:08 | 2097373 LynRobison
LynRobison's picture

Hey, where are MillionDollarBonus and RoboTrader? Shouldn't they be spouting on and on about how we ought to be listening to and following investment professionals?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:08 | 2097376 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

i don't see why the euro couldn't go up here if they are pumping things enough....the euro/gold/silver are all "risk on" and benefit from printing and supportive policies...

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:10 | 2097384 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

This latest Stolper call will be correct, unfortunately.  

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:13 | 2097391 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

 

 

The Euro at 1.38?

I'm buying before it's too late!

I think while I'm at it

I'll gather some bat shit

And use it as Goldmanite bait

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:13 | 2097399 vegas
vegas's picture

I'm starting to feel sorry for this guy.

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:14 | 2097405 hyper-critical
hyper-critical's picture

And short interest on Euro is still incredibly high. The 1.27 shorts who covered and were looking to short higher are probably shitting themselves post-fed. Especially after Bernank just officially laid the groundwork for qe3 during his press conference

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:22 | 2097459 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

yep. 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:20 | 2097409 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Where do you go with this one? My first instinct is to go long the dollar, but with Zirp to 2014 and beyond it looks like the only trade that works is gold silver ,and lead.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 17:38 | 2097784 forexnovaco
forexnovaco's picture

long USD when Ben is starts the printing press.....

i would rather short USD but gold silver are a good guess at least in my humble opinion

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:17 | 2097416 hyper-critical
hyper-critical's picture

And if you're nervous about EUR/USD, EUR/JPY could be a great way to play it...

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:17 | 2097425 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

i don't understand why every1 is bashing this guy? He works for GS , he is goldmanite...

He has to bring profit to his firm, not to his clients. GS constatnly shows profit regardless of what he says, in other words when his clients are following him GS is raping us nicely.

While we do understand that we have to do opposive of what he says, he does a good job for his firm.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:29 | 2097488 SV
SV's picture

Precisely - They are taking the opposite side of the trade.... That makes 9 out of 9 winners for Goldman's Desk.  I would say he's doing just fine.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:27 | 2097482 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

looking at the charts, EURUSD will rally for a couple/few weeks.  The dollar is about to take a shit.  SPX will continue rising.  But it will fall significantly if priced in shiny yellow stuff

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:39 | 2097516 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

We may have a similar view long term, but I think the dollar pairs its loses and the Euro weakens for another month, then it's of to the races.  Bernanke added firepower today.  If a downturn comes, he will be ready to ease.  Today he said just that.  He is prepared for QE X.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:28 | 2097487 Pretorian
Pretorian's picture

He will be right this time! Just for sake screwing every contrarian.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 16:54 | 2097563 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

What happens to $OIL now if hell breaks loose in the Persian Gulf?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 17:26 | 2097710 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

If you stand on your hands it will go down

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 17:02 | 2097585 Bear
Bear's picture

You know the 10th time is always the charm

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 17:18 | 2097676 dannyboy
dannyboy's picture

Thank you Tyler, from the bottom of my heart. These stopler calls have paid off most of my student debt :).

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 17:25 | 2097707 AGuy
AGuy's picture

Perfect Record? Batting 1000 at being wrong?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 17:27 | 2097719 walküre
walküre's picture

Greece default in March and subsequently Greece kicked out of the EURO Zone.

Bullish for the Euro with mainly Germany driving deflation, and the US driving inflation.

EURUSD 1.40 by summer, WTI $110, gold $2000 and silver $40

Enter your predictions below.

 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 18:06 | 2097895 Housicker
Housicker's picture

0 out of nine the odds are increasing in his favor to get it right at least once. On the other hand if keeps this "record" going I will hire him. 100% right or 100% wrong is just about the same when it comes to making money :)

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 19:48 | 2098152 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

I've gotten good chuckles out of these Stolper posts in the past, but I've actually acted on this one for the first time.  Sold at 1.3107 in my OANDA personal account.  Gotta love the 30x+ leverage in the FX market.  This is worth the comedy value even if the trade goes to 1.38 the way Stolper says it should.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 20:05 | 2098191 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"The one we have all been waiting for. Stolper about to be 9 out of 9 with a 0.000 hit rate."

Ruthless Journalism

pissed my pants laughing :)))

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 05:51 | 2099023 hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

How is your short? Feels good huh? :)

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 10:57 | 2112620 dns_di
dns_di's picture

What makes you believe price will go down man, Goldman is not the biggest FX market maker, if they try to limit offset their net position through their clients it does not have to move the market - there are plenty more players on the market bigger than goldman... just saying.

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