It seems the Fed head is confident that we are on our way back (despite cutting forecasts) - well he should be given his efforts - but as the following chart shows, arguing that downside risks have diminished seems not to fit too well with macro reality...
With markets now showing their true colors (pricing in the inevitable beginning of a taper), the next hour or so of double-speak and talking out of both sides of his mouth may well be the most important in the career of Ben Bernanke.
- *BERNANKE: FOMC MAY `MODERATE' PACE OF PURCHASES LATER IN 2013
- *BERNANKE SAYS FED MAY END PURCHASES AROUND MID-YEAR 2014
- *BERNANKE SAYS FED WILL EASE QE PACE IF ECONOMY IMPROVES
- *BERNANKE SAYS PURCHASE REDUCTION REPRESENTS FOMC CONSENSUS
FOMC Hints No Taper Despite More Optimistic Forecast, Bullard Is Second Dissenter - Redline ComparisonSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/19/2013 14:02 -0400
The much-anticipated statement of the most powerful body in the world is upon us -
- *FED MAINTAINS $85 BILLION MONTHLY PACE OF BOND BUYING
- *FED SAYS LABOR MARKET SHOWS `FURTHER IMPROVEMENT'
- *FED SAYS DOWNSIDE RISKS DIMINISHED SINCE AUTUMN
- *BULLARD, GEORGE DISSENT FROM FOMC STATEMENT
Ding Ding: we now have a new dissenter in addition to Esther George: James Bullard. And - as usual - there's a little in there for everyone aside from the fact that the rose-colored glasses view on the economy suggests that they will be, in factm, tapering at some point soon, which the market is not very happy with right now...
Perhaps the biggest red flag in today's FOMC release is the quarterly economic projections which improved from March with the Fed expecting better GDP and employment, offset by lower core and PCE inflation from 2013 all the way to 2015: whether this is sufficient for Bernanke to determine a need to taper the monthly $85 billion flow will be explained during the 2:30 pm press conference.
While bond markets are selling off (in anticipation of 'Taper'?), and equity markets are flat; it seems the equity market hedgers are not afraid anymore. After rising notably last week, VIX futures are being hammered lower as we head into the big announcement. Profit-taking on vol curve steepeners or a picture of complacency?
The following three minutes of absolute perfection uttered by CNBC's Rick Santelli is dangerous for anyone living in Kyle Bass' "intellectually dishonest" alter-world of denial and "unicorns and rainbows" as the Chicagoan goes off on the ignorance of everyone in these so-called markets. When every talking head is bullish and the world is going so great that we should all "buy stocks," Santelli demands we ask Bernanke - "what are you scared of," that keeps you pumping this much money into the system for this long? Simply put, Santelli's epic rant is the filter that every investor (or member of the public) should be viewing financial media and the Fed today (or in fact every day).
With 45 minutes left to go, only one thing matters: what does Goldman think (the other issue of whether Jan Hatzius shared a meal with Bill Dudley at the Pound and Pence will remain unknown until the next batch of Dudley daily "minutes" are released in a few months). So for all those scrambling for an edge in a centrally-planned world, here it is, via Goldman's Francesco Garzarelli : "Turning to today’s FOMC announcement and press conference, our US Economics team expect Chairman Bernanke to stick to the same message on ‘tapering’ of bond purchases used in previous pronouncements on the matter, but also emphasize that reducing the expansion of the balance sheet does not imply that the Fed is anywhere close to hiking rates. We think this is broadly what bondholders are also expecting to hear."
Three years ago we wrote "On The New York Fed's Editorial Influence Over The WSJ" in which we observed, courtesy of declassified documents by the Sigtarp exposing the involvement of then-Goldman and New York Fed director Stephen Friedman in relation to his infamous purchase of Goldman Stock so well memorialized by none other than Jon Hilsenrath (a story which made him a Loeb award finalist when he actually did investigative work instead of merely convey messages from the Fed), just how extensive the relationship between Jon Hilsenrath, the WSJ and the New York Fed was. But instead of regurgitating all the minutae covered in the original post (read it here), we will cut to the chase and present the declassified emails between the WSJ team in April/May 2009, and the NY Fed's Calvin Mitchell, then-EVP of the Communications Group, as well as the Fed's internal involvement of the FRBNY's General Counsel Thomas Baxter. We have highlighted the NY Fed "suggestions" - they are self-explanatory.
It seems yet another conspiracy theory has become conspiracy fact thanks to a Chinese whistleblower. While the shrodinger-like nature of Chinese data has been keeping the market guessing for the last few years, the disconnects between hard-data (e.g. electricity production) and government-supplied surveys have been, at times, ridiculous (leaving aside the un-manipulated craziness of arbitrage-driven trade data). As the WSJ's China Real-time reports, in an unusual move, the National Bureau of Statistics – clearly frustrated with the lies, damn lies – has recently outed a local government it says was involved in a particularly egregious case of number fudging, providing rare insight into just how we’re being deceived.
The latest casualty of Europe's berserk pursuit of tax evaders everywhere: not some Russian oligarch with a $1 billion Cypriot bank account but famous Italian designers, Dolce and Gabbana. WSJ reports that a Milan court has convicted the designers Domenico Dolce and Stefano Gabbana of tax evasion. The pair were found guilty Wednesday of failing to declare €1 billion ($1.3 billion) in income tax to authorities. The court sentenced them both to one year and eight months in jail.
Not sure if this one fits with the "fairness doctrine" or the "inconvenience" paradigm (where the government is here to protect you in exchange for ceding all those pesky constitutional amendments), but moments ago yet another "conspiracy theory" become fact when the FBI director Robert Mueller admitted to the domestic use of drones for surveillance purposes.
For the past several years, a firmly entrenched psyche of ‘win-win’ for risk-taking behavior has dominated. The thinking has been that the Fed would either help achieve a sustained recovery (allowing distorted prices to be validated by economic fundamentals), or the FOMC would provide more price-boosting liquidity. Now, faith in this proposition is slowly being eroded. Global central banks have collectively provided $11 trillion in liquidity over the past several years. The initial moves were taken to spark domestic demand, but some recent external actions have been retaliatory in nature, implemented as a means to influence currency levels. These new forms of hostilities are indications that the external ramifications of QE policies may no longer be passively tolerated.
Since the only topic on everyone's mind until 1:59:59:9999 pm today (excluding those who have been leaked the FOMC decision in advance of course) will be what the Fed will do, here are some additional perspectives from former FOMC secretary and economist Vince Reinhart (currently at Morgan Stanley), who believes nothing happens today as the Fed has "boxed" itself in, and his Fed Statement Probability Matrix.