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Newsflow Sentiment Confirms Global Recession

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The last few months have seen a rapid deterioration in economic newsflow. SocGen's newsflow indicators, which capture sentiment regarding trends in the underlying economy (based on the balance of economic strength and weakness in newswire and newspaper articles) typically leads the economy by around three months. Currently, this intriguing indicator suggests a notable drop off in global industrial production - and furthermore, while Fed/ECB anticipation has dragged market-implied inflation expectations up, newsflow has biased towards deflation rather notably in the last few months. It seems that rather than being the chess pieces of global central planners, we really do have minds of our own and act in our own best interest.

 

One can read a clear deterioration in SocGen's economic newsflow indicator, indicating that global growth is in danger in the months ahead...

 

and deflation is starting to worry people...

 

Charts: SocGen

 

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Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:36 | 2729977 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Not to worry. Central bank printing will save us all.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:39 | 2729989 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I'd like a little confirmation on that before I stop worrying.

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:44 | 2730002 analyzer_66
analyzer_66's picture

maybe a sudden and dramatic rise in metals ?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:06 | 2730103 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

silver testing 30 today. JPM will soon be busted:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuwkztXa8qQ&feature=player_embedded

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:39 | 2729978 LawsofPhysics
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As if the affects of ZIRP are not bad enough, wait until the affects of NIRP make it to main street.  These arrogant fucks really believe that there is no cost for capital creation and debt can pay for itself.  

I wonder if I can get a large business loan at -2.0% interest?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:55 | 2730054 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Hey, a -2% ROR may beat cash by 10%.  Sounds purty good.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:39 | 2729985 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

Transitory...

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:40 | 2729991 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I used to think that......now I'm not so sure.

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:42 | 2729994 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Blindsided by this poor economic development. Who coulda seen it coming?

The Great Carnac

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:48 | 2730018 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

 

"Who coulda seen it coming?"

Hedge Funds :)

 

Hedge funds are betting on disaster

http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/08/23/hedge-funds-short/?iid=Lead

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:39 | 2729987 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Devolution is theme - growth implosion (without CB and QE interventions) in economy and roll backs in human rights.  Corporate rights are ascendent.  Corp profits great, employment down, US middle class has lost > 25% of wealth in past 10 years.   

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:44 | 2730001 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

With many holding treasuries as a "safe haven" for their "wealth", the middle class will continue to lose, especially once NIRP kick ins.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:42 | 2729988 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Couldn't have come at a more opportune time, but hey fear not we will push oil and gas prices to the sky!

And hey, Bullard says we can hold off on that QE......

Those prop desks are crying bitter tears at this point. They certainly wanted it for almost a year now heh.

By time they do get it however.....

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:56 | 2730063 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

"And hey, Bullard says we can hold off on that QE....."

 

Well sure they could but they won't

 

Did Fed telegraph QE3 at last meeting?

snip

Fairly soon is an interesting construction given that we are approximately 10 weeks away from the presidential election and nearly a year ago Congressional Republican leaders took the unprecedented step of writing Fed Chairman Bernanke “expressing their reservations” regarding additional Fed intervention. They wrote “the board should resist further extraordinary intervention in the U.S. economy,”

http://www.futuresmag.com/2012/08/22/did-fed-telegraph-qe3-at-last-meeting?ref=hp

 

More Easing Warranted Unless Economy Improves: Fed

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48753317

 

Rising Jobless Claims Seen Keeping Unemployment Rate High

http://www.moneynews.com/Headline/Jobless-Claims-Labor-Market/2012/08/23/id/449485

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:41 | 2729990 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Actual news may be to blame too:

 

The BOE examines the results of its QE program  and finds:

 

“The Bank’s asset purchases have been almost entirely of gilts, causing the price of gilts to rise and yields to fall.  But this in turn has led to an increase in demand for other assets, including corporate bonds and equities.  As a result, the Bank’s asset purchases have increased the prices of a wide range of assets, not just gilts.  In fact, the Bank’s assessment is that asset purchases have pushed up the price of equities by at least as much as they have pushed up the price of gilts.

 

By pushing up a range of asset prices, asset purchases have boosted the value of households’ financial wealth held outside pension funds, but holdings are heavily skewed with the top 5% of households holding 40% of these asset.

 

For a defined benefit pension scheme in substantial deficit, asset purchases are likely to have increased the size of the deficit. That is because although QE raised the value of the assets and liabilities by a similar proportion, that nonetheless implies a widening in the gap between the two.  The burden of these deficits is likely to fall on employers and future employees, rather than those coming up for retirement now.”

 

So, printing money and buying assets has boosted the wealth of “The 5%” and driven pension funds deeper underwater.  Nice work chaps.

 

Hat tip: FT Alphaville

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 13:44 | 2731010 Seer
Seer's picture

As GW Bush would say: "Mission accomplished!"

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:53 | 2730042 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Welcome to the Great Stagflation.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:57 | 2730065 intric8
intric8's picture

The trick is to keep the blue line above the brown line. Or, in this case (http://xanalyser.blogspot.com/), keep the red line above the blue line

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:11 | 2730128 govttrader
govttrader's picture

In other news, tradeflow confirms that a levered player in the treasury market just made over a 40 ticks in the past 48 hours.  Its like having a printing press in the hamptons!!!  Can you smell the jealous much??

http://govttrader.blogspot.com/

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:16 | 2730145 Goatboy
Goatboy's picture

...we really do have minds of our own and act in our own best interest...

What you call mind is really an information accumulation absolutely dependent on environment. Its a direct product of environment. It unconditionally accumulates information in the same way our bodies accumulate from available food. So, having "one of your own" is really an illusion. As some wiser people said: your mind is society's garbage bin.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:27 | 2730189 ArrestBobRubin
Thu, 08/23/2012 - 14:42 | 2731250 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Iceland was right a thousand years ago.

The Decline and Fall of Private Law in Iceland by Roderick T. Long

http://www.freenation.org/a/f13l1.html

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:48 | 2730485 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Deflation Deflation Deflation.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!