Next Steps: Presenting The Definitive Greek End Game Flow Chart

Tyler Durden's picture

Confused by the Greece situation? Dizzied by the PSI haircuts, retractive CACs, Troika promises, ECB participations, local vs non-local law implications, CDS triggers, and ultimately contagion concerns? Fear no more (just like Jamie Dimon apparently) as Barclays presents the definitive Greek End-Game Scenario decision tree.

 

Click on the image for a larger view and note that the further we move to the right the more likely contagion becomes a large concern. Of course, the key is not simply Greece but the reaction by Portuguese, Irish, and Spanish politicians at Greece's 'out'.

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TruthInSunshine's picture

Soros is out clamoring about how he "wished he had bought more Italian bonds," given their high yield, and his implicit message that they won't get cheaper nor that Italy will default nor that the EU experiment may be in for some nastiness of the likes that would change his mind, yet.

Soros: Talking his book or giving free investment advice to the masses from the goodness and deep well of kindness that is his human heart?

 

Cpl Hicks's picture

Well, I guess I could sell some of my vast gold holdings and follow George in.

earnyermoney's picture

You mean those bonds he purchased from JPMorgan via MF Global without consent from the officials presiding over MF's BK?

Silver Bug's picture

Oh monster contagion is on its way, there is no way out of it. The Hedge funds are trying to squeeze every last dime out of greece. 

 

http://jimrickards.blogspot.com/

Spooky Polish's picture

Endgame ? 

 

nooo ...

 

this scheme looks awfully bullish for Euro amd stoxx ! 

why bullish ? bacause You'll always fell awfull smell of fake bullshit , and hedbe accordingly 

 

excuse me and my english 

falak pema's picture

purple rose. Changes from purple prose.

AbruptlyKawaii's picture

scottish spring?

the end game: According to the Scottish Sunday Express a group calling itself the Scottish National Liberation Army has threatened to “target” London and other major cities if Westminster continues to interfere in the independence referendum.

 

Non Passaran's picture

First, that garbage you posted is off topic.
Second, no one needs to interfere with that referendum. The voters just need to know how much of the UK public debt they would inherit.

Buck Johnson's picture

It must be end game to be blunt.  Because in the past few weeks they have been talking how a Greece default isn't that bad and such and such banks have no liabilities with Greece or that the CDS's won't matter at all since it's ony around 13 billion (BS and a lie) and most of the CDS more than likely have been paid.  As one commenter said on CNBC, Diamond made a comment about the unknown and that is what he wouldn't talk about or anybody.  The unknown of many, the unknown of which banks and countries have been lying since day one about their financial situation.  The unknown of how many CDS's are on Greek debt (they are only going by the debt that is due and ot even the 300 and change billion).  Because a CDS can be made on the likelyhood of Greek defaulting or whatever happening, it's a bet on a bet on a bet.  And so the CDS's could be close to a trillion or more on Greece unknowingly.

Non Passaran's picture

I doubt that your speculation is valid. It can easily be years before the shit hits the fan for eurozone. If Greece defaults it may take another year for Portugal to do the same.

redpill's picture

So there's only a 5% chance of no CDS trigger, but something tells me they'll still pull something out of their ass.  

rubearish10's picture

How does anyone guage this as a 5% chance of no CDS trigger. Based on every time series of events that has "rescued" or deferred" the issue ends up as market positive, how could "anyone" in their right mind use a 5% metric for this case! BS!

Bob Sacamano's picture

Of course the ISDA Determination Board makes the call on what is or is not a "credit event."  Just so happens that the Board is made up of banks that may have been the seller of the CDS insurance that they can not afford to payoff.......

NoClueSneaker's picture

Mr. Josef "Joe" Ackermann is the chairman of the ISDA shithouse. He was efficient in his endavour for the transformation of Germany to the shithouse like Michigan. No fuckin' dime left behind. His mighty shitbank " Deutsche Bank AG " has capitalisation of 2.86 % to the junkyard on their balance sheet... And that psycho stll has a word. Two german legislations sucked his cock - and now we have a result.

His idol is a Jamie - he braggs about it in the german papers. Every time he opens his mouth me feels draged in the toilette . TPTB - no brain left behind.

Apropos sellers of CDS:

... wer ist mit der Allianz versichert, hat seinen Pimmel ganz verkichert ....

 

 

 

Irish66's picture

Mother of mercy, we all now the end game..I can't take it any more..fffing chart to show us this.

youngman's picture

I have to get a wider screen....lol

Tao 4 the Show's picture

OT FWIW - Gold closed today above the 50% retracement from the low of the correction to the all time high. Weekly close will be important to watch.

CvlDobd's picture

I'm looking for > 1718 tomorrow at close.

PicassoInActions's picture

the end game goes for over 2 years, i would be suprised if they won't extend the game for little more.

They are using all this time to get out of Greece debt and dumb on idiots.

 

zerotohero's picture

Reminds me of playing monopoly with my brother - man we could play for days on end - when we ran out of monopoly money we made more from scrap paper and colored it. We would change rules all the time to keep  the game going - scream at each other then laugh our asses off.

 

uh oh this sounds fuckin familiar.

PicassoInActions's picture

is your brother by any chance a Chairman of ECB?

Orly's picture

And the uber-hotels...call them Resorts.

The chess piece was the Resort, which was the equivalent of 10 hotels.  The Queen was reserved for Boardwalk only.  I once landed on Park Place with three resorts, six hotels and three houses.  I owed my brother like twelve million dollars.

The strange thing is I actually had the cash.

:/

hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Nice to see you, Orly.  Still in TMC?

falak pema's picture

the only resort I have been to in texas is that millionaire's house near midland. It had a bathroom the size of a swimming pool. King size. I was looking for alligators but they told me we were far from the everglades. Never know with millionaires they could have a private collection. he did have a python on the premises. And a peacock. A black panther but it was kept locked up. His wife liked the panther. He liked big game in Africa. I liked his wife. But she was always flying out to Dallas to shop. I can't remember if her boobs were real.

StychoKiller's picture

Finally!  A place to post this:

French breast implant company head charged with "involuntary injury"

Looks like boobs are heading into a "deflationary" phase! :>D

 

Archduke's picture

did they have escort services?

Roy T's picture

 

 Well done, but all these possibilities are already priced in.  Rally On!!  /snark

Parabolic's picture

I predict that Tyler's most hated phrase in 2012 will be "priced-in"

NoClueSneaker's picture

... two candidates:

"transitory" & "priced-in" ...

 

Me likes WB7 glue:

O   *** 2012 ***

B

A

M

N

E

YES, WE SCAM

____________________________

... our asses r transitory priced-in. We'll get fucked without lube, and the fee will be transitory transfered to long term monetarised debt in the form of 30Y T-Bonds or German Bunds....

 

I feel da luv ....

 

battle axe's picture

I guarantee there will be no CDS trigger. Why you might ask? Because the trigger on the CDS of Greek Debt should of been pulled a few times by now and the people who decide when it gets pulled are on the take.. Bought and paid for.

forexskin's picture

missed the notion that the ECB might 'silent partner' with LARGE private investors and offer to cover a payoff that prevents CDS event. this has to be on the table right now - if not the market for impaired Greek debt would be continuing to rise.

another thought... wonder if issuers of CDS have collatoral posting requirements, and if so, have any triggers already been tripped...

CDS payout / default events have to be their major concern, cause CDS is where leverage X contagion X counterparty failure to perform= worst case cascading breakdown

carbonmutant's picture

What do the bondholders gain if they force a default?

carbonmutant's picture

What if hedge plays Greece's game and demands a restructuring?

Texas Ginslinger's picture

I see a new Euro-bond-yield-control-thingy coming, which has complete control of the interest rate lever.

These sky high EU sovereign bond yield rates are the problem.

If Japan and our Fed can control the debt service time bomb with near-zero yield rates, why can't the EU...???

hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

...a new Euro-bond-yield-control-thingy...

It's called QE.  The CB bids up (pays too much) its own bonds to reduce rates. 

 

Thus, the bond rates are just as real as Victoria Beckham's breasts.

Azannoth's picture

.. and do they yield anything ? ... I mean the bodns ofc not the .... ehm .... boobs

Cpl Hicks's picture

Don't be expecting any silicone out of those bonds, now.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

do they yield anything ?

The spreads can widen versus more conservative investments...they don't call it easing for nothing.

Scalaris's picture

I've just noticed the other half of the article above Victoria Beckham's breasts.

TruthInSunshine's picture

I hope that's not the French industrial grade silicone or she's going to develop large nodules elsewhere.

StychoKiller's picture

Finally!  A(nother!) place to post this:

French breast implant company head charged with "involuntary injury"

Looks like boobs are heading into a "deflationary" phase! :>D

Silicon != Silicone!

carbonmutant's picture

Apparently the target market for both doesn't care if their real...

Honey Badger's picture

If I can touch them, they're real.