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Next Steps: Presenting The Definitive Greek End Game Flow Chart

Tyler Durden's picture


Confused by the Greece situation? Dizzied by the PSI haircuts, retractive CACs, Troika promises, ECB participations, local vs non-local law implications, CDS triggers, and ultimately contagion concerns? Fear no more (just like Jamie Dimon apparently) as Barclays presents the definitive Greek End-Game Scenario decision tree.


Click on the image for a larger view and note that the further we move to the right the more likely contagion becomes a large concern. Of course, the key is not simply Greece but the reaction by Portuguese, Irish, and Spanish politicians at Greece's 'out'.

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Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:45 | 2100399 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

End Game, bitchez

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:10 | 2100482 Hugo Moron
Hugo Moron's picture

The End Game, Sequel #512

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:18 | 2100502 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Soros is out clamoring about how he "wished he had bought more Italian bonds," given their high yield, and his implicit message that they won't get cheaper nor that Italy will default nor that the EU experiment may be in for some nastiness of the likes that would change his mind, yet.

Soros: Talking his book or giving free investment advice to the masses from the goodness and deep well of kindness that is his human heart?


Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:29 | 2100551 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Well, I guess I could sell some of my vast gold holdings and follow George in.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:01 | 2100655 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

You mean those bonds he purchased from JPMorgan via MF Global without consent from the officials presiding over MF's BK?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:16 | 2100497 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Oh monster contagion is on its way, there is no way out of it. The Hedge funds are trying to squeeze every last dime out of greece. 



Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:16 | 2100498 Spooky Polish
Spooky Polish's picture

Endgame ? 


nooo ...


this scheme looks awfully bullish for Euro amd stoxx ! 

why bullish ? bacause You'll always fell awfull smell of fake bullshit , and hedbe accordingly 


excuse me and my english 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:24 | 2100720 Spastica Rex
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That was English?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 19:18 | 2101166 falak pema
falak pema's picture

purple rose. Changes from purple prose.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:29 | 2100731 AbruptlyKawaii
AbruptlyKawaii's picture

scottish spring?

the end game: According to the Scottish Sunday Express a group calling itself the Scottish National Liberation Army has threatened to “target” London and other major cities if Westminster continues to interfere in the independence referendum.


Fri, 01/27/2012 - 02:55 | 2101851 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

First, that garbage you posted is off topic.
Second, no one needs to interfere with that referendum. The voters just need to know how much of the UK public debt they would inherit.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:04 | 2100835 quacker
quacker's picture

Never-Ending Game, bitchez

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 22:15 | 2101514 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

It must be end game to be blunt.  Because in the past few weeks they have been talking how a Greece default isn't that bad and such and such banks have no liabilities with Greece or that the CDS's won't matter at all since it's ony around 13 billion (BS and a lie) and most of the CDS more than likely have been paid.  As one commenter said on CNBC, Diamond made a comment about the unknown and that is what he wouldn't talk about or anybody.  The unknown of many, the unknown of which banks and countries have been lying since day one about their financial situation.  The unknown of how many CDS's are on Greek debt (they are only going by the debt that is due and ot even the 300 and change billion).  Because a CDS can be made on the likelyhood of Greek defaulting or whatever happening, it's a bet on a bet on a bet.  And so the CDS's could be close to a trillion or more on Greece unknowingly.

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 02:59 | 2101853 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I doubt that your speculation is valid. It can easily be years before the shit hits the fan for eurozone. If Greece defaults it may take another year for Portugal to do the same.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:46 | 2100402 redpill
redpill's picture

So there's only a 5% chance of no CDS trigger, but something tells me they'll still pull something out of their ass.  

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:57 | 2100643 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

How does anyone guage this as a 5% chance of no CDS trigger. Based on every time series of events that has "rescued" or deferred" the issue ends up as market positive, how could "anyone" in their right mind use a 5% metric for this case! BS!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:08 | 2100672 Bob Sacamano
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Of course the ISDA Determination Board makes the call on what is or is not a "credit event."  Just so happens that the Board is made up of banks that may have been the seller of the CDS insurance that they can not afford to payoff.......

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 23:32 | 2101613 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

Mr. Josef "Joe" Ackermann is the chairman of the ISDA shithouse. He was efficient in his endavour for the transformation of Germany to the shithouse like Michigan. No fuckin' dime left behind. His mighty shitbank " Deutsche Bank AG " has capitalisation of 2.86 % to the junkyard on their balance sheet... And that psycho stll has a word. Two german legislations sucked his cock - and now we have a result.

His idol is a Jamie - he braggs about it in the german papers. Every time he opens his mouth me feels draged in the toilette . TPTB - no brain left behind.

Apropos sellers of CDS:

... wer ist mit der Allianz versichert, hat seinen Pimmel ganz verkichert ....




Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:47 | 2100405 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Mother of mercy, we all now the end game..I can't take it any more..fffing chart to show us this.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:47 | 2100406 youngman
youngman's picture

I have to get a wider screen....lol

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:51 | 2100413 Tao 4 the Show
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OT FWIW - Gold closed today above the 50% retracement from the low of the correction to the all time high. Weekly close will be important to watch.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:59 | 2100443 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

I'm looking for > 1718 tomorrow at close.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:50 | 2100415 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

the end game goes for over 2 years, i would be suprised if they won't extend the game for little more.

They are using all this time to get out of Greece debt and dumb on idiots.


Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:03 | 2100458 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

Reminds me of playing monopoly with my brother - man we could play for days on end - when we ran out of monopoly money we made more from scrap paper and colored it. We would change rules all the time to keep  the game going - scream at each other then laugh our asses off.


uh oh this sounds fuckin familiar.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:04 | 2100467 PicassoInActions
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is your brother by any chance a Chairman of ECB?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:25 | 2100527 Orly
Orly's picture

And the uber-hotels...call them Resorts.

The chess piece was the Resort, which was the equivalent of 10 hotels.  The Queen was reserved for Boardwalk only.  I once landed on Park Place with three resorts, six hotels and three houses.  I owed my brother like twelve million dollars.

The strange thing is I actually had the cash.


Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:16 | 2100700 hedgeless_horseman
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Nice to see you, Orly.  Still in TMC?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 18:36 | 2101077 Orly
Orly's picture

I do not recall that...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 19:28 | 2101191 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the only resort I have been to in texas is that millionaire's house near midland. It had a bathroom the size of a swimming pool. King size. I was looking for alligators but they told me we were far from the everglades. Never know with millionaires they could have a private collection. he did have a python on the premises. And a peacock. A black panther but it was kept locked up. His wife liked the panther. He liked big game in Africa. I liked his wife. But she was always flying out to Dallas to shop. I can't remember if her boobs were real.

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 01:21 | 2101753 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Finally!  A place to post this:

French breast implant company head charged with "involuntary injury"

Looks like boobs are heading into a "deflationary" phase! :>D


Fri, 01/27/2012 - 08:22 | 2102011 Archduke
Archduke's picture

did they have escort services?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:54 | 2100417 Roy T
Roy T's picture


 Well done, but all these possibilities are already priced in.  Rally On!!  /snark

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:02 | 2100457 Parabolic
Parabolic's picture

I predict that Tyler's most hated phrase in 2012 will be "priced-in"

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 23:49 | 2101640 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

... two candidates:

"transitory" & "priced-in" ...


Me likes WB7 glue:

O   *** 2012 ***








... our asses r transitory priced-in. We'll get fucked without lube, and the fee will be transitory transfered to long term monetarised debt in the form of 30Y T-Bonds or German Bunds....


I feel da luv ....


Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:52 | 2100422 battle axe
battle axe's picture

I guarantee there will be no CDS trigger. Why you might ask? Because the trigger on the CDS of Greek Debt should of been pulled a few times by now and the people who decide when it gets pulled are on the take.. Bought and paid for.

Sat, 01/28/2012 - 18:28 | 2100428 forexskin
forexskin's picture

missed the notion that the ECB might 'silent partner' with LARGE private investors and offer to cover a payoff that prevents CDS event. this has to be on the table right now - if not the market for impaired Greek debt would be continuing to rise.

another thought... wonder if issuers of CDS have collatoral posting requirements, and if so, have any triggers already been tripped...

CDS payout / default events have to be their major concern, cause CDS is where leverage X contagion X counterparty failure to perform= worst case cascading breakdown

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:57 | 2100438 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

Things were a lot simpler in the 2010 Greece default flow chart http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/mado...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:58 | 2100440 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

What do the bondholders gain if they force a default?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:00 | 2100447 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Hedge pays off big.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:05 | 2100461 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

What if hedge plays Greece's game and demands a restructuring?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:58 | 2100442 Texas Ginslinger
Texas Ginslinger's picture

I see a new Euro-bond-yield-control-thingy coming, which has complete control of the interest rate lever.

These sky high EU sovereign bond yield rates are the problem.

If Japan and our Fed can control the debt service time bomb with near-zero yield rates, why can't the EU...???

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:25 | 2100493 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



...a new Euro-bond-yield-control-thingy...

It's called QE.  The CB bids up (pays too much) its own bonds to reduce rates. 


Thus, the bond rates are just as real as Victoria Beckham's breasts.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:26 | 2100541 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

.. and do they yield anything ? ... I mean the bodns ofc not the .... ehm .... boobs

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:32 | 2100559 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Don't be expecting any silicone out of those bonds, now.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:15 | 2100589 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



do they yield anything ?

The spreads can widen versus more conservative investments...they don't call it easing for nothing.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:50 | 2100791 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

I've just noticed the other half of the article above Victoria Beckham's breasts.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:08 | 2100840 TruthInSunshine
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I hope that's not the French industrial grade silicone or she's going to develop large nodules elsewhere.

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 01:28 | 2101763 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Finally!  A(nother!) place to post this:

French breast implant company head charged with "involuntary injury"

Looks like boobs are heading into a "deflationary" phase! :>D

Silicon != Silicone!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:36 | 2100576 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Apparently the target market for both doesn't care if their real...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:55 | 2100642 Honey Badger
Honey Badger's picture

If I can touch them, they're real.

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