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Next Steps: Presenting The Definitive Greek End Game Flow Chart

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Confused by the Greece situation? Dizzied by the PSI haircuts, retractive CACs, Troika promises, ECB participations, local vs non-local law implications, CDS triggers, and ultimately contagion concerns? Fear no more (just like Jamie Dimon apparently) as Barclays presents the definitive Greek End-Game Scenario decision tree.

 

Click on the image for a larger view and note that the further we move to the right the more likely contagion becomes a large concern. Of course, the key is not simply Greece but the reaction by Portuguese, Irish, and Spanish politicians at Greece's 'out'.

 


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Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:45 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

End Game, bitchez

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:10 | Link to Comment Hugo Moron
Hugo Moron's picture

The End Game, Sequel #512

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:18 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Soros is out clamoring about how he "wished he had bought more Italian bonds," given their high yield, and his implicit message that they won't get cheaper nor that Italy will default nor that the EU experiment may be in for some nastiness of the likes that would change his mind, yet.

Soros: Talking his book or giving free investment advice to the masses from the goodness and deep well of kindness that is his human heart?

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:29 | Link to Comment Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Well, I guess I could sell some of my vast gold holdings and follow George in.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:01 | Link to Comment earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

You mean those bonds he purchased from JPMorgan via MF Global without consent from the officials presiding over MF's BK?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:16 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Oh monster contagion is on its way, there is no way out of it. The Hedge funds are trying to squeeze every last dime out of greece. 

 

http://jimrickards.blogspot.com/

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:16 | Link to Comment Spooky Polish
Spooky Polish's picture

Endgame ? 

 

nooo ...

 

this scheme looks awfully bullish for Euro amd stoxx ! 

why bullish ? bacause You'll always fell awfull smell of fake bullshit , and hedbe accordingly 

 

excuse me and my english 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:24 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

That was English?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 19:18 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

purple rose. Changes from purple prose.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment AbruptlyKawaii
AbruptlyKawaii's picture

scottish spring?

the end game: According to the Scottish Sunday Express a group calling itself the Scottish National Liberation Army has threatened to “target” London and other major cities if Westminster continues to interfere in the independence referendum.

 

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 02:55 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

First, that garbage you posted is off topic.
Second, no one needs to interfere with that referendum. The voters just need to know how much of the UK public debt they would inherit.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment quacker
quacker's picture

Never-Ending Game, bitchez

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 22:15 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

It must be end game to be blunt.  Because in the past few weeks they have been talking how a Greece default isn't that bad and such and such banks have no liabilities with Greece or that the CDS's won't matter at all since it's ony around 13 billion (BS and a lie) and most of the CDS more than likely have been paid.  As one commenter said on CNBC, Diamond made a comment about the unknown and that is what he wouldn't talk about or anybody.  The unknown of many, the unknown of which banks and countries have been lying since day one about their financial situation.  The unknown of how many CDS's are on Greek debt (they are only going by the debt that is due and ot even the 300 and change billion).  Because a CDS can be made on the likelyhood of Greek defaulting or whatever happening, it's a bet on a bet on a bet.  And so the CDS's could be close to a trillion or more on Greece unknowingly.

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 02:59 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I doubt that your speculation is valid. It can easily be years before the shit hits the fan for eurozone. If Greece defaults it may take another year for Portugal to do the same.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:46 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

So there's only a 5% chance of no CDS trigger, but something tells me they'll still pull something out of their ass.  

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:57 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

How does anyone guage this as a 5% chance of no CDS trigger. Based on every time series of events that has "rescued" or deferred" the issue ends up as market positive, how could "anyone" in their right mind use a 5% metric for this case! BS!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:08 | Link to Comment Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

Of course the ISDA Determination Board makes the call on what is or is not a "credit event."  Just so happens that the Board is made up of banks that may have been the seller of the CDS insurance that they can not afford to payoff.......

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 23:32 | Link to Comment NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

Mr. Josef "Joe" Ackermann is the chairman of the ISDA shithouse. He was efficient in his endavour for the transformation of Germany to the shithouse like Michigan. No fuckin' dime left behind. His mighty shitbank " Deutsche Bank AG " has capitalisation of 2.86 % to the junkyard on their balance sheet... And that psycho stll has a word. Two german legislations sucked his cock - and now we have a result.

His idol is a Jamie - he braggs about it in the german papers. Every time he opens his mouth me feels draged in the toilette . TPTB - no brain left behind.

Apropos sellers of CDS:

... wer ist mit der Allianz versichert, hat seinen Pimmel ganz verkichert ....

 

 

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

Mother of mercy, we all now the end game..I can't take it any more..fffing chart to show us this.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

I have to get a wider screen....lol

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:51 | Link to Comment Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

OT FWIW - Gold closed today above the 50% retracement from the low of the correction to the all time high. Weekly close will be important to watch.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:59 | Link to Comment CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

I'm looking for > 1718 tomorrow at close.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:50 | Link to Comment PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

the end game goes for over 2 years, i would be suprised if they won't extend the game for little more.

They are using all this time to get out of Greece debt and dumb on idiots.

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:03 | Link to Comment zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

Reminds me of playing monopoly with my brother - man we could play for days on end - when we ran out of monopoly money we made more from scrap paper and colored it. We would change rules all the time to keep  the game going - scream at each other then laugh our asses off.

 

uh oh this sounds fuckin familiar.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:04 | Link to Comment PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

is your brother by any chance a Chairman of ECB?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

And the uber-hotels...call them Resorts.

The chess piece was the Resort, which was the equivalent of 10 hotels.  The Queen was reserved for Boardwalk only.  I once landed on Park Place with three resorts, six hotels and three houses.  I owed my brother like twelve million dollars.

The strange thing is I actually had the cash.

:/

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:16 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Nice to see you, Orly.  Still in TMC?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 18:36 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

I do not recall that...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

the only resort I have been to in texas is that millionaire's house near midland. It had a bathroom the size of a swimming pool. King size. I was looking for alligators but they told me we were far from the everglades. Never know with millionaires they could have a private collection. he did have a python on the premises. And a peacock. A black panther but it was kept locked up. His wife liked the panther. He liked big game in Africa. I liked his wife. But she was always flying out to Dallas to shop. I can't remember if her boobs were real.

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 01:21 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Finally!  A place to post this:

French breast implant company head charged with "involuntary injury"

Looks like boobs are heading into a "deflationary" phase! :>D

 

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 08:22 | Link to Comment Archduke
Archduke's picture

did they have escort services?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:54 | Link to Comment Roy T
Roy T's picture

 

 Well done, but all these possibilities are already priced in.  Rally On!!  /snark

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Parabolic
Parabolic's picture

I predict that Tyler's most hated phrase in 2012 will be "priced-in"

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 23:49 | Link to Comment NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

... two candidates:

"transitory" & "priced-in" ...

 

Me likes WB7 glue:

O   *** 2012 ***

B

A

M

N

E

YES, WE SCAM

____________________________

... our asses r transitory priced-in. We'll get fucked without lube, and the fee will be transitory transfered to long term monetarised debt in the form of 30Y T-Bonds or German Bunds....

 

I feel da luv ....

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

I guarantee there will be no CDS trigger. Why you might ask? Because the trigger on the CDS of Greek Debt should of been pulled a few times by now and the people who decide when it gets pulled are on the take.. Bought and paid for.

Sat, 01/28/2012 - 18:28 | Link to Comment forexskin
forexskin's picture

missed the notion that the ECB might 'silent partner' with LARGE private investors and offer to cover a payoff that prevents CDS event. this has to be on the table right now - if not the market for impaired Greek debt would be continuing to rise.

another thought... wonder if issuers of CDS have collatoral posting requirements, and if so, have any triggers already been tripped...

CDS payout / default events have to be their major concern, cause CDS is where leverage X contagion X counterparty failure to perform= worst case cascading breakdown

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

Things were a lot simpler in the 2010 Greece default flow chart http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/mado...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:58 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

What do the bondholders gain if they force a default?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

Hedge pays off big.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

What if hedge plays Greece's game and demands a restructuring?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:58 | Link to Comment Texas Ginslinger
Texas Ginslinger's picture

I see a new Euro-bond-yield-control-thingy coming, which has complete control of the interest rate lever.

These sky high EU sovereign bond yield rates are the problem.

If Japan and our Fed can control the debt service time bomb with near-zero yield rates, why can't the EU...???

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

...a new Euro-bond-yield-control-thingy...

It's called QE.  The CB bids up (pays too much) its own bonds to reduce rates. 

 

Thus, the bond rates are just as real as Victoria Beckham's breasts.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

.. and do they yield anything ? ... I mean the bodns ofc not the .... ehm .... boobs

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:32 | Link to Comment Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Don't be expecting any silicone out of those bonds, now.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:15 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

do they yield anything ?

The spreads can widen versus more conservative investments...they don't call it easing for nothing.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:50 | Link to Comment Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

I've just noticed the other half of the article above Victoria Beckham's breasts.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:08 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I hope that's not the French industrial grade silicone or she's going to develop large nodules elsewhere.

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 01:28 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Finally!  A(nother!) place to post this:

French breast implant company head charged with "involuntary injury"

Looks like boobs are heading into a "deflationary" phase! :>D

Silicon != Silicone!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:36 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Apparently the target market for both doesn't care if their real...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:55 | Link to Comment Honey Badger
Honey Badger's picture

If I can touch them, they're real.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:33 | Link to Comment Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

YOU can't touch 'em ... so ...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

she is a perfect football groupie...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 23:51 | Link to Comment NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

... can some1 haul this  dead horse to the glue factory ? ...

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 08:23 | Link to Comment Archduke
Archduke's picture

++. you must be from clusterstock.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment Rodolfito
Rodolfito's picture

But as Barclays is heavily exposed to all this debt, this can also be seen as propoganda (pressure for ECB QE).

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

"The farther right we go on this indecision tree..."

there!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Do any of thos fiscal "solutions" keep the natives off the street when it starts to warm a bit?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:08 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

Since everything is red now, does that mean the fed announcement yesterday is already worn off?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:16 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

God bless Barclays. They treat me like a fucking king. I thank them for help with all my Apple needs and wants

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

The fonts on the blue boxes are a little small.  I'm assuming the all say 'FIXED, BUY BUY BUY!!!'

 

yepper

 

Michelle Caraso Cabrara was just on CNBC saying all is known, fixed, hedged and okley dokley.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Ghostintheshell
Ghostintheshell's picture

greece has checkmated the world, they have won the race to the bottom and the world is at there mercy like germany after WW2 who would have ever thunk them to win the currancy war!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

lmao. hadn't thought of that.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Ghostintheshell
Ghostintheshell's picture

greece has checkmated the world, they have won the race to the bottom and the world is at there mercy like germany after WW2 who would have ever thunk them to win the currancy war!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:19 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I really grow tired of all the financial mumbo jumbo talk.  Everyone's fucking broke.  That's much easier to say.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:27 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

Greece is in the final year of the "Olympiads" - the "Ides of March" are soon to be under the "Sword of Damocles" - a cataclysmic vendetta thrust - carpe`diem does "Dionysius ghost portray,... Et tu, Brute, the final blow. 

farewell my greece?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Dugald
Dugald's picture

I trust not yon Greece, it hath a lean and hungry look!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:24 | Link to Comment Cynthia11640
Cynthia11640's picture

Does anyone have the list of the private creditors? If so, please post

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Wipeout2097
Wipeout2097's picture

Ok, where is contagion illustrated?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Greece hosts Olympics in 2004 and spends $11 billion.....is bust ! Britain is the first European nation since 2004 to host an Olympics and spends $16 billion of taxpayer funds (probably much more)......and is bust

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 01:32 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Eureke! (so to speak...) It's the Olympic games that's bankrupting entire Countries (lucky thing Obamatron failed to get the 2012 games, then [whew!  dodged a bullet there!])...when does China go bust?

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

when does China go bust?

 

Just as soon as p[eople look at the Credit Balances of Chinese banks. After all noone knew Europe or the US were bust until their banks imploded

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:28 | Link to Comment MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

So basically the most important decision is the first one.  The wrong move triggers CDS.  And I think most of us know the sellers of CDS probably don't have shit to back them up.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:30 | Link to Comment non_anon
non_anon's picture

a ponzi in end games

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Buyemall
Buyemall's picture

There is a benefit of the psi talks

the greek stock market this week and especially the banking sector

 

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 03:17 | Link to Comment ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Thanks for the flowchart - illustrative and informative Tyler.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Dorky
Dorky's picture

The chart somehow pointed out that regardless of the outcome, it will still be bullish for stocks.

The stock market is so damn fake.

Whatever the problem, just print the money.

I should apply for the job of a central bank's chairman.

Shit! Even a total dumb fuck can be a Fed chairman.

Nobody really needs a high IQ to be qualified.

The only skill highly required for the job is speechcraft to sway and confuse the general public from the main point.

Bloody fucking unfair advantages reserved only to the motherfucker bankers.

Don't even bother a single shit about the economy.

Just buy (the stock market) when it's high, buy even more when it's cheap, and buy with all you've got when it crashes.

It's a fucking no-brainer kind of game.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!