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Next Steps: Presenting The Definitive Greek End Game Flow Chart

Tyler Durden's picture


Confused by the Greece situation? Dizzied by the PSI haircuts, retractive CACs, Troika promises, ECB participations, local vs non-local law implications, CDS triggers, and ultimately contagion concerns? Fear no more (just like Jamie Dimon apparently) as Barclays presents the definitive Greek End-Game Scenario decision tree.


Click on the image for a larger view and note that the further we move to the right the more likely contagion becomes a large concern. Of course, the key is not simply Greece but the reaction by Portuguese, Irish, and Spanish politicians at Greece's 'out'.


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Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:45 | 2100399 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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End Game, bitchez

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:10 | 2100482 Hugo Moron
Hugo Moron's picture

The End Game, Sequel #512

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:18 | 2100502 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Soros is out clamoring about how he "wished he had bought more Italian bonds," given their high yield, and his implicit message that they won't get cheaper nor that Italy will default nor that the EU experiment may be in for some nastiness of the likes that would change his mind, yet.

Soros: Talking his book or giving free investment advice to the masses from the goodness and deep well of kindness that is his human heart?


Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:29 | 2100551 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Well, I guess I could sell some of my vast gold holdings and follow George in.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:01 | 2100655 earnyermoney
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You mean those bonds he purchased from JPMorgan via MF Global without consent from the officials presiding over MF's BK?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:16 | 2100497 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Oh monster contagion is on its way, there is no way out of it. The Hedge funds are trying to squeeze every last dime out of greece.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:16 | 2100498 Spooky Polish
Spooky Polish's picture

Endgame ? 


nooo ...


this scheme looks awfully bullish for Euro amd stoxx ! 

why bullish ? bacause You'll always fell awfull smell of fake bullshit , and hedbe accordingly 


excuse me and my english 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:24 | 2100720 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

That was English?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 19:18 | 2101166 falak pema
falak pema's picture

purple rose. Changes from purple prose.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:29 | 2100731 AbruptlyKawaii
AbruptlyKawaii's picture

scottish spring?

the end game: According to the Scottish Sunday Express a group calling itself the Scottish National Liberation Army has threatened to “target” London and other major cities if Westminster continues to interfere in the independence referendum.


Fri, 01/27/2012 - 02:55 | 2101851 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

First, that garbage you posted is off topic.
Second, no one needs to interfere with that referendum. The voters just need to know how much of the UK public debt they would inherit.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:04 | 2100835 quacker
quacker's picture

Never-Ending Game, bitchez

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 22:15 | 2101514 Buck Johnson
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It must be end game to be blunt.  Because in the past few weeks they have been talking how a Greece default isn't that bad and such and such banks have no liabilities with Greece or that the CDS's won't matter at all since it's ony around 13 billion (BS and a lie) and most of the CDS more than likely have been paid.  As one commenter said on CNBC, Diamond made a comment about the unknown and that is what he wouldn't talk about or anybody.  The unknown of many, the unknown of which banks and countries have been lying since day one about their financial situation.  The unknown of how many CDS's are on Greek debt (they are only going by the debt that is due and ot even the 300 and change billion).  Because a CDS can be made on the likelyhood of Greek defaulting or whatever happening, it's a bet on a bet on a bet.  And so the CDS's could be close to a trillion or more on Greece unknowingly.

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 02:59 | 2101853 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I doubt that your speculation is valid. It can easily be years before the shit hits the fan for eurozone. If Greece defaults it may take another year for Portugal to do the same.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:46 | 2100402 redpill
redpill's picture

So there's only a 5% chance of no CDS trigger, but something tells me they'll still pull something out of their ass.  

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:57 | 2100643 rubearish10
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How does anyone guage this as a 5% chance of no CDS trigger. Based on every time series of events that has "rescued" or deferred" the issue ends up as market positive, how could "anyone" in their right mind use a 5% metric for this case! BS!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:08 | 2100672 Bob Sacamano
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Of course the ISDA Determination Board makes the call on what is or is not a "credit event."  Just so happens that the Board is made up of banks that may have been the seller of the CDS insurance that they can not afford to payoff.......

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 23:32 | 2101613 NoClueSneaker
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Mr. Josef "Joe" Ackermann is the chairman of the ISDA shithouse. He was efficient in his endavour for the transformation of Germany to the shithouse like Michigan. No fuckin' dime left behind. His mighty shitbank " Deutsche Bank AG " has capitalisation of 2.86 % to the junkyard on their balance sheet... And that psycho stll has a word. Two german legislations sucked his cock - and now we have a result.

His idol is a Jamie - he braggs about it in the german papers. Every time he opens his mouth me feels draged in the toilette . TPTB - no brain left behind.

Apropos sellers of CDS:

... wer ist mit der Allianz versichert, hat seinen Pimmel ganz verkichert ....




Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:47 | 2100405 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Mother of mercy, we all now the end game..I can't take it any more..fffing chart to show us this.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:47 | 2100406 youngman
youngman's picture

I have to get a wider

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:51 | 2100413 Tao 4 the Show
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OT FWIW - Gold closed today above the 50% retracement from the low of the correction to the all time high. Weekly close will be important to watch.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:59 | 2100443 CvlDobd
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I'm looking for > 1718 tomorrow at close.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:50 | 2100415 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

the end game goes for over 2 years, i would be suprised if they won't extend the game for little more.

They are using all this time to get out of Greece debt and dumb on idiots.


Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:03 | 2100458 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

Reminds me of playing monopoly with my brother - man we could play for days on end - when we ran out of monopoly money we made more from scrap paper and colored it. We would change rules all the time to keep  the game going - scream at each other then laugh our asses off.


uh oh this sounds fuckin familiar.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:04 | 2100467 PicassoInActions
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is your brother by any chance a Chairman of ECB?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:25 | 2100527 Orly
Orly's picture

And the them Resorts.

The chess piece was the Resort, which was the equivalent of 10 hotels.  The Queen was reserved for Boardwalk only.  I once landed on Park Place with three resorts, six hotels and three houses.  I owed my brother like twelve million dollars.

The strange thing is I actually had the cash.


Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:16 | 2100700 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



Nice to see you, Orly.  Still in TMC?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 18:36 | 2101077 Orly
Orly's picture

I do not recall that...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 19:28 | 2101191 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the only resort I have been to in texas is that millionaire's house near midland. It had a bathroom the size of a swimming pool. King size. I was looking for alligators but they told me we were far from the everglades. Never know with millionaires they could have a private collection. he did have a python on the premises. And a peacock. A black panther but it was kept locked up. His wife liked the panther. He liked big game in Africa. I liked his wife. But she was always flying out to Dallas to shop. I can't remember if her boobs were real.

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 01:21 | 2101753 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Finally!  A place to post this:

French breast implant company head charged with "involuntary injury"

Looks like boobs are heading into a "deflationary" phase! :>D


Fri, 01/27/2012 - 08:22 | 2102011 Archduke
Archduke's picture

did they have escort services?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:54 | 2100417 Roy T
Roy T's picture


 Well done, but all these possibilities are already priced in.  Rally On!!  /snark

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:02 | 2100457 Parabolic
Parabolic's picture

I predict that Tyler's most hated phrase in 2012 will be "priced-in"

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 23:49 | 2101640 NoClueSneaker
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... two candidates:

"transitory" & "priced-in" ...


Me likes WB7 glue:

O   *** 2012 ***








... our asses r transitory priced-in. We'll get fucked without lube, and the fee will be transitory transfered to long term monetarised debt in the form of 30Y T-Bonds or German Bunds....


I feel da luv ....


Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:52 | 2100422 battle axe
battle axe's picture

I guarantee there will be no CDS trigger. Why you might ask? Because the trigger on the CDS of Greek Debt should of been pulled a few times by now and the people who decide when it gets pulled are on the take.. Bought and paid for.

Sat, 01/28/2012 - 18:28 | 2100428 forexskin
forexskin's picture

missed the notion that the ECB might 'silent partner' with LARGE private investors and offer to cover a payoff that prevents CDS event. this has to be on the table right now - if not the market for impaired Greek debt would be continuing to rise.

another thought... wonder if issuers of CDS have collatoral posting requirements, and if so, have any triggers already been tripped...

CDS payout / default events have to be their major concern, cause CDS is where leverage X contagion X counterparty failure to perform= worst case cascading breakdown

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:57 | 2100438 distopiandreamboy
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Things were a lot simpler in the 2010 Greece default flow chart

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:58 | 2100440 carbonmutant
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What do the bondholders gain if they force a default?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:00 | 2100447 battle axe
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Hedge pays off big.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:05 | 2100461 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

What if hedge plays Greece's game and demands a restructuring?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:58 | 2100442 Texas Ginslinger
Texas Ginslinger's picture

I see a new Euro-bond-yield-control-thingy coming, which has complete control of the interest rate lever.

These sky high EU sovereign bond yield rates are the problem.

If Japan and our Fed can control the debt service time bomb with near-zero yield rates, why can't the EU...???

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:25 | 2100493 hedgeless_horseman
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...a new Euro-bond-yield-control-thingy...

It's called QE.  The CB bids up (pays too much) its own bonds to reduce rates. 


Thus, the bond rates are just as real as Victoria Beckham's breasts.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:26 | 2100541 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

.. and do they yield anything ? ... I mean the bodns ofc not the .... ehm .... boobs

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:32 | 2100559 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Don't be expecting any silicone out of those bonds, now.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:15 | 2100589 hedgeless_horseman
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do they yield anything ?

The spreads can widen versus more conservative investments...they don't call it easing for nothing.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:50 | 2100791 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

I've just noticed the other half of the article above Victoria Beckham's breasts.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:08 | 2100840 TruthInSunshine
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I hope that's not the French industrial grade silicone or she's going to develop large nodules elsewhere.

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 01:28 | 2101763 StychoKiller
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Finally!  A(nother!) place to post this:

French breast implant company head charged with "involuntary injury"

Looks like boobs are heading into a "deflationary" phase! :>D

Silicon != Silicone!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:36 | 2100576 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Apparently the target market for both doesn't care if their real...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:55 | 2100642 Honey Badger
Honey Badger's picture

If I can touch them, they're real.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:33 | 2100743 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

YOU can't touch 'em ... so ...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 19:14 | 2101157 falak pema
falak pema's picture

she is a perfect football groupie...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 23:51 | 2101644 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

... can some1 haul this  dead horse to the glue factory ? ...

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 08:23 | 2102014 Archduke
Archduke's picture

++. you must be from clusterstock.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:00 | 2100445 Rodolfito
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But as Barclays is heavily exposed to all this debt, this can also be seen as propoganda (pressure for ECB QE).

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:05 | 2100471 slewie the pi-rat
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"The farther right we go on this indecision tree..."


Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:07 | 2100477 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Do any of thos fiscal "solutions" keep the natives off the street when it starts to warm a bit?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:08 | 2100479 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Since everything is red now, does that mean the fed announcement yesterday is already worn off?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:16 | 2100485 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

God bless Barclays. They treat me like a fucking king. I thank them for help with all my Apple needs and wants

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:15 | 2100494 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

The fonts on the blue boxes are a little small.  I'm assuming the all say 'FIXED, BUY BUY BUY!!!'




Michelle Caraso Cabrara was just on CNBC saying all is known, fixed, hedged and okley dokley.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:18 | 2100506 Ghostintheshell
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greece has checkmated the world, they have won the race to the bottom and the world is at there mercy like germany after WW2 who would have ever thunk them to win the currancy war!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:20 | 2100513 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

lmao. hadn't thought of that.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:18 | 2100507 Ghostintheshell
Ghostintheshell's picture

greece has checkmated the world, they have won the race to the bottom and the world is at there mercy like germany after WW2 who would have ever thunk them to win the currancy war!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:19 | 2100508 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I really grow tired of all the financial mumbo jumbo talk.  Everyone's fucking broke.  That's much easier to say.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:27 | 2100523 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

Greece is in the final year of the "Olympiads" - the "Ides of March" are soon to be under the "Sword of Damocles" - a cataclysmic vendetta thrust - carpe`diem does "Dionysius ghost portray,... Et tu, Brute, the final blow. 

farewell my greece?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:31 | 2100905 Dugald
Dugald's picture

I trust not yon Greece, it hath a lean and hungry look!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:24 | 2100524 Cynthia11640
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Does anyone have the list of the private creditors? If so, please post

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:25 | 2100528 Wipeout2097
Wipeout2097's picture

Ok, where is contagion illustrated?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:22 | 2100716 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Greece hosts Olympics in 2004 and spends $11 bust ! Britain is the first European nation since 2004 to host an Olympics and spends $16 billion of taxpayer funds (probably much more)......and is bust

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 01:32 | 2101766 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Eureke! (so to speak...) It's the Olympic games that's bankrupting entire Countries (lucky thing Obamatron failed to get the 2012 games, then [whew!  dodged a bullet there!])...when does China go bust?

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:47 | 2109433 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

when does China go bust?


Just as soon as p[eople look at the Credit Balances of Chinese banks. After all noone knew Europe or the US were bust until their banks imploded

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:28 | 2100729 MrBoompi
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So basically the most important decision is the first one.  The wrong move triggers CDS.  And I think most of us know the sellers of CDS probably don't have shit to back them up.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:30 | 2100736 non_anon
non_anon's picture

a ponzi in end games

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:31 | 2100738 Buyemall
Buyemall's picture

There is a benefit of the psi talks

the greek stock market this week and especially the banking sector


Fri, 01/27/2012 - 03:17 | 2101864 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Thanks for the flowchart - illustrative and informative Tyler.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 11:03 | 2107118 Dorky
Dorky's picture

The chart somehow pointed out that regardless of the outcome, it will still be bullish for stocks.

The stock market is so damn fake.

Whatever the problem, just print the money.

I should apply for the job of a central bank's chairman.

Shit! Even a total dumb fuck can be a Fed chairman.

Nobody really needs a high IQ to be qualified.

The only skill highly required for the job is speechcraft to sway and confuse the general public from the main point.

Bloody fucking unfair advantages reserved only to the motherfucker bankers.

Don't even bother a single shit about the economy.

Just buy (the stock market) when it's high, buy even more when it's cheap, and buy with all you've got when it crashes.

It's a fucking no-brainer kind of game.

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