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Next Stop: Dow 100,000

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We thought that Jeremy Siegel, Laszlo "the Ruler" Birinyi and Jim Altucher were optimistic with their stock market targets. Sadly, with their equal to or less than 20,000 Dow Jones predictions, the three merely come off as rank amateurs, especially when compared to the forecast of BNP's head of fixed income Philippe Gijesels, who sees the stock market at 100,000 at some point over the next 25 years. However, unlike the previous trio who bases its forecasts on misguided expectations of economic growth, Gijesels may actually end up being right, because his estimate is predicated on one simple thing: hyperinflation, or specifically 12.2% inflation each year, which for a country like America is tantamount to the dreaded H-word. The other premise used by Gijesels: too much debt which has to be inflated. And actually, he is spot on. The only problem is that when the Dow hits 100,000 due to money printing, which is his underlying thesis, one will needed scientific notation to express the price of any hard asset (and most certainly gold), because if America falls in a two-decade long Weimar republic phase, the Dow may well be 100,000 or 100 googol - the truth is it won't matter as the money this number translated to would be absolutely meaningless. Just ask the Weimar Germans, who may have had some tremendous monthly increases in their 401(k) statements, but all they really cared about is whether they had the latest and most fashionable wheelbarrow model.

 

 

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Tue, 05/15/2012 - 19:22 | 2429502 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

this is why europe is broke.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 19:35 | 2429522 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

You don't need wheelbarrows when you got plastic, smartphones, and 1's and 0's stored in a database. Inflation by the millisecond. Yep, there'll be an app for that.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 19:34 | 2429525 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Ok! We beat the guy up!  His boss is " Mark Zuckerberg"!  ( Birthday Hangover) /sarc

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 19:42 | 2429556 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Good luck creating inflation, Japan has been trying for 15 years now.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 19:50 | 2429578 azengrcat
azengrcat's picture

Introducing CNBC's new hit show Happy Days featuring: Philippe "the French Curve" Gijesels and Jim "The Ponz" Cramer 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 19:59 | 2429595 newengland
newengland's picture

Just my little opinion:

I think the reset will involve an external and internal USD, as per the yuan and reminbi sort of thingy. If the game is to save the globalist central bank cartel from its worst debts and foist the worst problems on people whilst retaining political and monetary control...then a two-speed USD would achieve that goal, and make peace with the Chinese Politburo in a deal partly backed by gold. Remember: central banks, socialists, communists are all about control; the elite ruling the many, as per the agenda of the Trilateral Commission, led by Rothschilds, Rockefellers et al, assisted by their pet Bilderberg Group.

Just a thought. As Machiavelli said: keep your friends close, and your enemies closer.

The 100K Dow would only exist if matters proceed as now. That's unlikely, in my opinion.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 20:07 | 2429619 rjiver33
rjiver33's picture

Here's a great video of Jeremy Siegel getting owned by Peter Schiff (2010)

Skip half way through to the back and forth. Really good points.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cncdQ3qNaHM

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 20:12 | 2429627 zebra
zebra's picture

maybe we should do scientific notation, 1.23E+15.

 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 20:12 | 2429630 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Such tripe.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 20:13 | 2429631 e-man
e-man's picture

Thank God my Amex has no fixed spending limit.  I am going to save so much money on wheelbarrows.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 20:24 | 2429665 Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

1oz. of Gold is still worth more than the S&P 500 index.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 20:25 | 2429669 surf0766
surf0766's picture

12% gov't reported is like 40% actual. In other news, facebook will now own Greece.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 20:27 | 2429677 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Hell. while we're at it. Gold= $100,000.00 an OZ. during the same time... Parity Bitchez

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 20:29 | 2429687 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I'll take the Parity.

And flip a coin or two to become truly King. There will be poor serfs groveling at the feet for a bit of shine.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 20:28 | 2429684 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

100,000?

Load of crap. Imaginary traders and friends cannot make this happen.

The USA is sinking money pit into Wall Street and barely hang on to what they have now. 100,000 is a bridge too far.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 20:31 | 2429690 Thucydides
Thucydides's picture

Come on sing long with me (crank up that 1931 Victorola)

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let's sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again

Altogether shout it now
There's no one
Who can doubt it now
So let's tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again

Your cares and troubles are gone
There'll be no more from now on!!!!!!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 20:33 | 2429701 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

So what happened, they passed the fairness doctrine in the middle of the night and now they have to put this guy and Brusca up there as balance?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:13 | 2429790 Glass Steagall
Glass Steagall's picture

I think when CNBC is so desperate as to truck this euro-trash fuckwad in-front of a camera, the wheels have already flown off – of the ratings and the spin. 2012 is gonna be a tumultuous year…

 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:23 | 2429828 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Think of it this way....about 40 years ago, the DOW was around 700. Today it's 13k. So in forty years, you can count on the DOW being 100k, if it rises proportionally to recent history. At least this is what your "financial advisor" and Uncle Warren will tell you. No one talks about the Boomers having to withdraw all their money to pay for their fat asses to retire. And the youngins will be paying for their "investment" in college for about 20-30 years vice investing for their retirement. The entire stock market is nothing but Fed liquidity and HFT. Retail is GONE.........

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:30 | 2429858 XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

What have I been posting for the past three years? NEVER underestimate the replacement power of equities within an inflationary spiral. That's why stocks are dropping, fools, it is the set-up of all time: They take 'em down before they take 'em up. Obama re-election = 10000 Dow, $70 oil; as soon as he is "in" the pump a thon re-ignites and he brags all the way to DOW 100,000. Simple as printing "Debt monetization".

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:33 | 2429864 chump666
chump666's picture

haha Dow at 100,000? lol. Guy needs to drop the meth.

Meantime in reality, the worst to horrific scenario is playing out:

Sept eurodollar futures suggest 3M LIBOR at 64 bps vs 46 bps currently
Pressures rise in implied  FX euro swaps; 3M rates at 62 bps vs Dec high of 151 bps
Costs set to rise further on potential bank downgrades, JPM saga, Grexit woes

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:34 | 2429867 I should be working
I should be working's picture

Who gives a fuck, at least I'll be able to pay off my mortgage.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:40 | 2429891 chump666
chump666's picture

it gets better by the minute:

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
 
Germany is demanding that the European Central Bank return EUR35 billion ($44.6 billion) to the European Financial Stability Facility, German daily Financial Times Deutschland reported Wednesday, without citing its sources.
The EFSF had extended the EUR35 billion as a risk guarantee during the recent exchange of Greece's government debt, the newspaper said. Germany contends the operation went as planned, the newspaper said.
 
Newspaper website: http://www.ftd.de

For you Europe: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAlNrtcPCLw

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:51 | 2429932 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Rut-Row!!!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:55 | 2429936 Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

The more I watch the financial industry the more I think its like some kind of entertainment.  Its like who can make the biggest loses and look like the biggest fool is the biggest celebrity.  Its like a reality show but really stupid.

 

Time for the gloom doom and boom report by Marc Faber:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e59rh3EV4gk

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:33 | 2430056 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

Indeed, it is likely that there is inflation in the following years. After all, many "trilliondollars" put on the table will have an effect on prices. I think the key is to try to encontarassets "win" in this process. If you mess up, inflation will destroy much of the value of your patrimony.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 23:06 | 2430170 loub215
loub215's picture

I'll have what he's having...

WTF... that could be a repeat of the '82-'00 move. AAPL at $100,000, IBM at $1500, GM at $25, the XLF at $2...

bahwha!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 23:51 | 2430316 css1971
css1971's picture

Japan is the model. More debt not less.

Dow back to 1000 and perpetual debt slavery through taxation.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 04:46 | 2430653 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

This isn't a prediction - it's a DEMAND

 

You thought Government spending was the problem - well the welfare queens of the projects are nothing in comparison to the welfare queens of capitalism.

 

This guy is clearly long and is putting the making of money before the stability of the world.

I mean how dumb can you be? - you think there will be any shops in which to spend your wealth if the Dow hit's 100,000?

 

What a fucking stupid fat idiot.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 09:41 | 2431186 KandiRaverHipster
KandiRaverHipster's picture

if America falls in a two-decade long Weimar republic phase

i can get down with this.  it just feels, like, the only option.  then we invade mexico?

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