This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
NFLX Beats But Guidance Stuns Stock -19% From Friday's Close, Margins Implode
Netflix headlines may appear rosy as top and bottom lines were a beat but guidance on revenues and subrscriber adds perhaps rings the death knell on this mythical beast...
- *NETFLIX SEES 2Q NET ADDS BELOW THOSE OF 2010 :NFLX US
- *NETFLIX SEES 2Q REV. ABOUT $873M-$895M; EST. $893.4M :NFLX US
We can only hope that AAPL does not miss in any way on any metric ever...
Here is what not to put in your letter to investors when you are a zero barrier to entry streaming company whose business model is being assaulted by everyone, not least of all Apple.
We think our 2012 domestic streaming net adds will be about the same as in 2010, and that gross adds will approximately follow the 2010 seasonal pattern.
...
Due to the increased net adds quarterly seasonality, Q2 net adds will be below those of 2010, despite Q2 net adds following the traditional seasonal pattern, and despite us expecting to match 2010 in annual net additions.
and the funniest line ever in an official company filing:
We see nothing new or particularly concering this quarter to date in our member viewing, acquisition and retention. All are healthy.
Except your stock price...
Finally, this is how you destroy your company. What can one say but sweet streaming jesus: this must be what an exponentially accelerating dead cut has to look like.
And another hilarious chart: total "profit" per foreign international paying sub. We only hope they can make up for it in volume...
Full letter:
»
- 10002 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
OH the inhumanity ...........
Collapse Bitchez!
Nah. They just need a solid Groupon deal.
Owned and Operated!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=njSV5LtVmR4
My Life and Your Life on FILM!
But CNBC said earnings were better than expected!
Where's Steve LIESman to tell everyone how margin compression is a good thing?!?
I was told BTFD. What could possibly go wrong?
I believe what Taylor is trying to tell us in his own quirky little way, is... "BTFNFLXD"
; )
Is Tilson still long this? If so.. so, so painful.
About a month ago, I got an offer for a free one month trial. I wonder if I would have counted as a new subsciber if I had accepted?
Yup. It how bell dresses up quarterly numbers with their ISP sympatico and sat tv. Once they have the CC number you are "subscribed" because you'll more than likely miss the cancel date then you'll justify how cheap it is.
WARNING: The biggest ponzi stock out there right now is LNKD... the same person who warned about NFLX, GRPN, and a whole handful of ponzi banks is saying LNKD is the next one to say adios!!
www.Suchmaschineneintrag.co
Die Frage wurde noch nicht beantwortet
They need to start including porn on streaming. That'll squeeze the shorts.
The IPO on NETDICKS is going to be huge.
THE SEC would use all the bandwidth
1 colo machine at their ISP and we're all good.
That would be a huge government contract.
Now that is Funny New Thor.
But it also sounds creepy when you've just watched Idiocracy.
ori
What? No PUSSYLICKS?
Ya stream porn on the net, no ones doign that .. they'll corner the market... ooh wait..
That's why they'll call it "Cumcast".
And...did you say corner?
BLAM!!
Today is a cue Tom Petty day...
I'm free fallin'
Robo I'm sure you bought at the lows and sold at the highs.
Pretty sure those are the only kinds of trades he makes.
At least I am not Whitney....
but......but....Cramer said
But bad news is good news, so buy? Also does this mean that all the free subs they added wont stick around for next Q?
I was actually just grateful that the CNBS coverage today reminded me to cancel my wifes subscription. The morons over there still will not acknowledge the historically epic f*ckup they made last summer. I want streaming AND dvd all on one login and all for less than the cost of doing both separately. in other words, the way it was when the price had a 2 handle in the major slot and the price was triple digits. but they just will not do it. could they be that stupid? apparently yes, yes they can.
Can't blame Netflix, they did what they had to do. They obviously could not survive with the old model since shipping physical dvds costs too much vs all the streaming content rights they already aquired and paid for. They have good penetration but as a growth stock this thing is done, put a fork in it.
Uh, yes you can. Sure the stock may not have gone full retard on its way to the heights reached last summer without the streaming business model. But the streaming model killed the company. The movie selection is terrible and most people still lack the bandwidth to enjoy it.
You see that margin compression, that's all streaming. The DVD by mail business was doing fine and gave Netflix great margins.
Netflix brass decided to concentrate on what would be best to pump its stock with hype vs what would really be good for business. Of course the executives pocketed millions through insider stock sales and the 100% bounce from the bottom gave them another great grant and cash opportunity.
Netflix isn't about movies anymore. The company produced and sold stock certificates, DVDs by mail was just an advertising campaign.
Hey im not arguing that streamign killed the business - just reiterating the streaming costs forced them to segreagate teh businesses. I do disagree that dvd gives them better margins, that business was probably killing them with increaed usps costs every year.
Also im sure they saw the kiosk dvd renters were getting some penetration as well coinstar, redbox, blockbuster. logical place to go was streaming. but now thats even crowded. Lets face it this business model offers no barriers to entry. which means growth is dead for this crap stock.
I was with them in the beginning, DVD's by mail was a good model, and I was able to get independent / foreign (ie less "popular" content) without having to live in a city with "alternative" shop providers. . .
but no, that wasn't good enough for NetFlix - they had to GROW AND GROW, until they were mainlining shitty TeeVee and acting like BlockBuster in their DVD selections - and upping the prices again and again. . . AND an obnoxious CEO. . . they pushed out their first-in folks, mocking us as we un-subscribed.
fk 'em.
Having good penetration is a nice starting advantage - for streaming porn right to the SEC, that is.
I actually flipped over to fox Business channel today. Was like watching CNBC from the past ....Liz Claman, Melissa Francis, Dennis Kneale...still cheerleaders but different faces.
oh nooo!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saC13RJ8CUs
Notice when the stock price drops, the fire at the bottom gets higher...
TIMBERRRRRRR!!
No, NIMBERRRRRRRRRR
Oh and Facebook had a 12% loss in the last quarter
Facebook has a top secret Space Exploration team that is currently extracting Valarian diamonds from Mars.
Once the IPO is done, they will announce it to the world and become the
greatest. corporation. of. all. time. (not counting the catholic church)
Smoke weed... not meth, there Thor...
People will be scaried tomorrow. If AAPL does this, the darn market will be halted a few times.
"We can only hope that AAPL does not miss in any way on any metric ever..."
AAPL sandbags when they project future EPS estimates. Nonetheless, when APPL does eventually lay an egg with a major product release, the market response should be swift and brutal.
T-shirt recently seen on a friend:
"I was a Mac developer when Apple was doomed."
AAPL is about as good as its ever going to get right now, that mid $600 range was tops.
Appl can't even think a negative word tomorrow.
a weaker usd and the BRIC will help them get a bonus.
Last time I used Netflix was at a party a couple months ago, I just played a bunch of Trailer Park Boys episodes....other than that, Netflix is pretty much worthless. Cancelled it.
+1 cat food mountain
And you watched it like a shit hawk... Like a shit hawk...
CSTR is an egg snatcher...
NETNIX. Or one big NEIN!
Reality alert!!! Apple has missed earnings before geniuses. It happened way way way way back in October of 2011. This is bad blogging. Remember, they missed because people waited on the new iPhone to come out. Sound familiar?? The stock was trading at $398 all the way back then.
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/10/18/apple-misses-earnings-stock-punis...
I dont see anywhere where its posted that apple never msised earnings.. Just tyler(s) aking what happens to the nasapple if any appl metrix misses tomorrow.
Its still above zero so this has to be bullish
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RESncBXYGBs
if AAPL miss tomorrow ...... i think you know
if AAPL misses, keep both arms in the vehicle at all times
They won't miss, but they'll disappoint
margins.. it'll be all margins that drive stocks lower in the coming years. demand destruction has already been present, which will even get worse.
I would rather BTFD in Silver prices right now thank you.
Short Apple now. Too much expectation and hopes built into this stock.
Balloon profits disappeared after IPO? talking about 'Fill and Pull' or 'Pump and Dump'.
When your stock is trading at 25 times earnings and your business model is under attack from all directions, accidents can and do happen (NFLX).
Apple's valuation at roughly 14 times earnings is not even in that ballpark which means that they do not have to "beat" on every single metric to justify the stock price.
Personally, I wish that Apple would go ahead and split the stock at least 5-to-1 so that it doesn't appear so expensive and might possibly attract some retail interest. Right now with these 3%-5% intraday moves EVERY DAY, it is behaving like a Hedge Fund/HFT plaything.
It's the only way the people posting $120 def tops here will ever be right.
Same as it's the only way the one's posting $600 def tops now will be right in the future.
Dot com bubble... II the new era I thing.
MEGAUPLOAD, bitches!
Brings to mind a high school era joke's punchline: "....OK, that settles it. Next week TWO trucks on the road."
When are people going to learn with this stock...
Your pension fund and 401k mutual fund managers will never learn with your money...
CMG and AMZN are the next to fall.
Netflix sucks – got it as a trial (streaming) and didn’t watch one thing. Very, very poor selection – almost nothing or it’s really old stuff. What a joke. Only let it go for the kids but even that is bottom of the barrel for quality and selection. It does make me feel like I’m back in the 80’s though.
It used to be awesome, then content providers raised their prices. That was the end of Netflix. As usual, it's taking "smart money" a few years to realize...
I got Netflix to screw Comcast, and then I got to screw Netflix by canceling once I found out about their copyright pushing activities.
"And another hilarious chart: total "profit" per foreign international paying sub. We only hope they can make up for it in volume..."
Ah-HAH-hahahah-ha ah ha ha... +5...
Got to love "Sarcastic" Tyler....
My favorite of all the Tyler(s)...
Facetube, Netfix, Spacebook, Crabapple, who cares.
NET KABOOOM!
Not to worry. That's FED funny money vaporizing. F'em.
Streaming Netflix on the Nintendo Wii or 3DS, XBOX, or WiFi LCD is the best thing since sliced bread and well priced.
If we are not really in a recovery Netflix has a lot of room to grow as people discover they can watch movies and old T.V. shows on just about anything; a large number of undiscovered customers.
I'm surprised they aren't advertising how and with what it can work (device specific) versus the goofy branding commercials they run.
Problem is, the stock has been too much of a speculative play by the money-sloshers versus an investment, which is why it tanked almost 20% on not so bad guidance. The superstitious high-rolling gamblers at the table left when the dice thrower switched.
Easy for an inflated stock to come back to Earth (lesson here for AAPL buyers).