NFP Big Miss: 120K, Expectations 205K, Unemployment 8.2%, "Not In Labor Force" At New All Time High

Tyler Durden's picture

March NFP big miss at just 120K. Unemployment rate declines from 8.3% to 8.2%. Futures slide, for at least a few minutes before the NEW QE TM rumor starts spreading. The household survey actually posted a decline in March from 142,065 to 142,034. Considering Birth Death added 90K to the NSA number, the actual number was almost unchanged. And as always, as we predicted when Goldman hiked its NFP forecast yesterday from 175K to 200K saying "if Goldman's recent predictive track record is any indication, tomorrow's NFP will be a disaster", Goldie once again skewers everyone. Finally, Joe LaVorgna's +250,000 forecast was just 100% off... as usual.

The unemployment rate drops to 8.2% for one simple reason: the number of people not in the labor force is back to all time highs: 87,897,000.

Birth Death:

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slaughterer's picture

Time for the sell off.

GetZeeGold's picture



We Muppets were expecting more.....thx again Goldie.


Shocker's picture

Doesn't really seem to matter, Missed Expections by over about 100k and unemployment still drops.

What a recovery -

transaccountin's picture

/es down barely 1% fk you bs

LuKOsro's picture

Don`t rush it, friend our you may get fleeced. Btw what the f is keeping AAPL up ?

jcaz's picture

Goldman baited people and took the other side with their own money?   

Where's my shocked face?

Doing God's Work Since 1929....

Oh regional Indian's picture

Since the NoFuckingPayroll was nailed on the cross today, expect it to rise on the 3rd day.

It's the same story, different actors is all.



ratso's picture

Yes, we know.  All bad numbers are valid and all good numbers are government manipilutions and lies.

SheepDog-One's picture

I didnt say anything was valid or good....120K report while some assclowns guessed 175K....BIG DEAL!

fuu's picture

"Stay tuned for a 240K sort of gain in Private jobs for March." -Robert Brusca

Sudden Debt's picture

In the good old days... all you needed to get people back to work was a whip or a bamboo stick...


oddjob's picture

Employment bugs were blowtorched. They are all bagholders with empty bags.

fuu's picture

If people had put on my NFP/Gas convergence trade when I mentioned it a while back they would have made money.

SilverIsKing's picture

To you and me, it's Good Friday.

To Goldman, it's Very Good Friday.

TruthInSunshine's picture

The Fed, Congress & the POTUS should all listen to Krugman, if they want to solve our economic woes, because not only is Krugman correct in his latest article inasmuch as he claims that inflation is too low (and that the official data on inflation is a credible gauge), but there should be a concerted effort to dramtically boost inflation, because nothing will sooth what ails an economy with high STRUCTURAL (not cyclical) unemployment, falling real wages and hours worked (in other words, less ability to consume), slumping aggregate demand (for loans, goods, services), and pressures on producers, suppliers, retailers and consumers, at a time of near record government deficit spending and record government debt, like a ramping up of inflation.

Yes, get inflation well beyond its current levels, and all those companies with 'cash' (or, in many cases, debt in the form of fiat piled high as a result of corporate bond sales given record low yields on said bonds) will hire many new workers to produce more of the things that aren't in demand by consumers who can't afford the prices of that which is already being produced.

Also, that ramp in inflation won't at all kill the economy further, because it's irrelevant that Americans are awash in debt as it is, that seniors and savers are engaged in massive deleveraging not out of choice, but necessity (given current rates of inflation and ZIRP), and that such a process won't end up also dramatically ramping bank failures as interest rates ultimately get away from Bernanke slowly at first, and then hasten the pace.

Yes, that Paul Krugman is some kind of genius.



[Krugman is one sick bastard and pathological liar. In past columns, he never explicitly supported quantitative easing, but rather, called for fiscal, rather than monetary, stimulus. Not only does he call for more QE now, but if you read his latest sycophant rantings, he explicitly calls for the government to debase debt obligations via high inflationary policy.]


Not Enough Inflation


Published: April 5, 2012

iDealMeat's picture

The Nobel Foundation has become an embarrassment. and Ivy League .edu's are just producing pink slime..

carry on..

Stax Edwards's picture

One important thing to remember, and I am not being sarcastic here, is that PK is a commie at heart.  Anybody free of their liberal/conservative bias knows this to be the case.  So as he advocates his so called 'solutions' to our woes, keep in mind that if and when it all truly falls apart, the replacement system of government control over everything would not disappoint this moron.  If we achieved the hyperinflation that he advocates, he wins. 

He does not like capitalism at all.  He is fairly certain he and his lackeys know better.  He despises free market solutions.  Read a few of his columns if you don't believe me.  He is the hig priestess as it were of government control solutions.  He is absolutely certain he has a model that knows better than people deciding for themselves.  Unfortunately for the sane among us he maintains far too much control over the mainstream thought via his Ivory Tower at the NYT and as it turns out the curriculum taught to economists.  So keep this in mind when you consider what he advocates.  He would be smitten with the alternative.  And personally I think he is more suited for a column in a newspaper in Moscow and a place in Putin's cabinet than he has here in the states advocating his garbage view of economics.  NYT op-ed pages fall further into obscurity with him headlining the group.

JPM Hater001's picture

So down 15 is the best we can do with a miss like this?  Imagine what it would look like without the all manipulative Bernank.

Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

You're missing the point...the print is probably higher than reality...just sayin.

pazmaker's picture

Pimping your blog again ORI?   you dissappeared for awhile......I guess your needing more readership.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Well paz, definitely not looking for lower intellect types like you. Thanks for not visiting.

It's you're, a combination of you and are with the correct placement of the apostrophe, okay?

Now go back to school, or if you are one of the bitter old men here....well, I have nothing to say to you.


pazmaker's picture

OUch! Hit a nerve did I??? It appears you are you're your which ever way you prefer..... the bitter one my fri-end.   Happy pimping to you.  I wouldn't waste my time visiting your non-intel-ligent blog

Oh and thanks for showing your true colors in your reply! Hopefully you're your you are donating some money to ZH for your pimping.

withnmeans's picture

Joe Laugh-vornia, what a peice of work.... How can he ever justify his pay. Oh well, just like all of the other Banksters..

He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

None would have been surprised, had they listened to the Bernank during the last two weeks. Funny sheeple.

Stax Edwards's picture

Alas! The correction has arrived and the FED is going to let the market run on its own for awhile.  Rejoice!

Straying from the flock's picture

The recovery is a figment of the media's imagination.  All debts come due.  Our economy is on the edge of the cliff.  I have no doubts that the banks and the Federal Reserve has planned this result from the onset.  It has, after all, only been 99 years since the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.  Good work in a short time period.

Here is what I am telling those I care about:

This is what I am doing,  What are you doing to prepare your family?

FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

NOTHING matters but boosting the numbers by any means possible until COMRADE CHAIRMAN OBAMAKOV is reelected.

Then, it can all be allowed to crash, bringing us the Glorious Socialist World of NEXT TUESDAY!(tm) that Chomsky,Zinn, Alinsky, George Wiley, Bill Ayres, etc., have dreamed of. Remember who the folks we now have in charge were protoges of, folks....

They have been telling us FOR DECADES what the plan is.

FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

Unicorn Math...

Only Obamunists study it, and understand how it works.


Even Bernanke addressed the difference between Obama's BLS numbers and "Reality" last week.

Dr. Engali's picture

Are you kidding? This is bullish, Ben has cover fo QE.

Irish66's picture

I'm seasonally adjusted, aren't you?

BeetleBailey's picture

Why....yes....yes I am. Lightly salted, a freshhhhhh chutney rub, and flavored with garden herbs.

JPM Hater001's picture

I had a seasonal adjustment last night.

Helped my disposition a-lot

Dr. Engali's picture

Unemployment is down because people stopped looking for work. Look past the headline and look deeper into the numbers.

GetZeeGold's picture



Headline on Drudge linked to this page.


Number of people not in labor force rises to record 88M...




max2205's picture

Drudge link is a first I think...time to find another cutting edge blog I guess...LOL

Mentaliusanything's picture

Time for some Maths

The population of the USA = 311 Million

Remove those not in the labour force - 88million

Remove those in Jail- 5 million

Remove the over 65 retiree's - 77million 

Remove the Children under working age 75 million.

Remove those in active service -1.5 Million

Remove illegals -11.5 million

Remove those who "work" for the Government - 16.2 million

remove the parasitic Wall Streeters and Bankers - 4 million

Remove those Who are "between jobs" and not working 4.2 million

Remove those who are drug addicts - 12.5 million

Remove the Alcoholics - 12million

Remove the Politicians/ mayors/councilors and hangers on the the US purse strings - 2.8 Million

Remove those who are "consultants" to the above - 1.3Million

Guess Fucking what !!!!!!

That leaves Just you and me being productive tax paying Workers. And Im sick of you blogging on Zero hedge all Day. Get back to work you Fucking Goldbrick.



The Alarmist's picture

You set up the problem, but you didn't do the arithmetic ... For a minute I thought that left about 6 of us to carry the rest ... sure seems like it sometimes. But it still leaves more than 80 million to do the heavy lifting. Why is that not enough? Or are you one of those greedy types who thinks you should enjoy the fruits of your own labor?


RallyRoundTheFamily's picture

Johnny Sokko ruled my pre-teen years.

spastic_colon's picture long as the rate is below 8 by election time, no one cares about these prints.  Even reagan had a rate above 7 during re-election, but no one has had one above 8

SilverIsKing's picture

" long as the rate is below 8 by election time, no one cares about these prints."


I would imagine that the 88 million care.

Saro's picture

Nah, they just have to inform those 88 million people that while they may think that they are hungry and homeless, they actually have full bellies and live in mansions, according to the seasonal adjustments.