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NFP Huge Miss At 69,000 On Expectations Of 150,000; Unemployment Rate 8.2%
And we have NEW QE liftoff, just as we predicted yesterday: "That the ADP would miss today's expectations of 150K is no surprise: after all as we have been explaining for a while, the only way the Fed will have a green light to proceed with NEW QE if it so chooses at the June 19-20 meeting, is if the economic data suddenly turn horrendous. Which means tomorrow's NFP data is make or break: in fact, as far as markets are concerned, the worse the better - should a -1,000,000 NFP print come in, stocks will soar." It may take a little while for the realization to soak in. The actual number of +69,000 was a massive miss to both the expectation of 150,000, and the whisper number 100,000, and a drop from the massively revised April 77K, which was 115K before. And that is with a 204,000 addition from Birth Death. Just a total disaster for Obama who has decided to sacrifice the perception of an improving economy just so he can give Bernanke a green light to goose the stock market.
3rd monthly miss in a row...
A 4-sigma miss to expectations...
From the report, which was, simply said, ghastly.
Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May (+69,000), following a similar change in April (+77,000). In comparison, the average monthly gain was 226,000 in the first quarter of the year. In May, employment rose in health care, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade, while construction lost jobs. (See table B-1.)
Health care employment continued to increase in May (+33,000). Within the industry, employment in ambulatory health care services, which includes offices of physicians and outpatient care centers, rose by 23,000 over the month. Over the year, health care employment has risen by 340,000.
Transportation and warehousing added 36,000 jobs over the month. Employment gains in transit and ground passenger transportation (+20,000) and in couriers and messengers (+5,000) followed job losses in those industries in April. Employment in both industries has shown little net change over the year. In May, truck transportation added 7,000 jobs.
Employment in wholesale trade rose by 16,000 over the month. Since reaching an employment low in May 2010, this industry has added 184,000 jobs.
Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in May (+12,000) following a similar change in April (+9,000). Job gains averaged 41,000 per month in the first quarter of this year. In May, employment rose in fabricated metal products (+6,000) and in primary metals (+4,000). Since its most recent low in January 2010, manufacturing employment has increased by 495,000.
Construction employment declined by 28,000 in May, with job losses occurring in specialty trade contractors (-18,000) and in heavy and civil engineering construction (-11,000). Since reaching a low in January 2011, employment in construction has shown little change on net.
Employment in professional and business services was essentially unchanged in May. Since the most recent low point in September 2009, employment in this industry has grown by 1.4 million. In May, job losses in accounting and bookkeeping services (-14,000) and in services to buildings and dwellings (-14,000) were offset by small gains elsewhere in the industry.
Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, retail trade, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government, changed little in May.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in May. The manufacturing workweek declined by 0.3 hour to 40.5 hours, and factory overtime declined by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
Remember when we were warning about seasonal adjustments? Well they work both ways. May is the first month of the year in which seasonal adjustment subtract from the unadjusted number. Sure enough: 718,000 jobs were statistically removed from the unadjusted Establishment Survey number, which actually increased by 789,000 in May.
The only silver lining: people out of the labor force declined by 522,000 in May.
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first
Here we go again, . This recoveery is surely taking its time
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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I thought we answered the QE question for good yesterday?
Ben Shalom is naked and hiding under his desk.......not a good sign.
There will be profit for those here who ACT. I posted this a few days ago: Well at least one POOR guy is fast growing rich off these fucks:
Been short EUR/USD for nearly a month, as well as NZD/USD and AUD/USD. Scaled in for two weeks. ALL IN NOW. Do or die. Thanks Tyler. The incessant "gloom and doom" on Europe definitely encouraged me. I owe you buddy;:
HERE'S HOW YOU GET RICH OFF THIS SHIT PEOPLE
Sun, 05/06/2012 - 17:37 | 2401652 NewWorldOrange "It's going to be a very interesting summer." Yes indeed it is. Perhaps even better than last summer (for currency traders.) As for this evening, I think AUD/USD and/or NZD/USD are better shorts than EUR/USD. Always great "risk off" trades, especially on a Sunday evening after such a weekend. Whether the markets perceive increased volatility much in part due to the Europe elections, a decline in global markets, or are still just pricing in the Friday's jobs report, there is likely to be a flight to the "safety of the US dollar" (yeah, I know - LMAO too) and when that happens the Aussie and Kiwi usually take a real beating. Especially if commodities markets are trending down as they have been.
Shorted both and EUR/USD Friday afternoon. Just closed EUR/USD. Just added BIG to my already sizeable shorts on AUD/USD and NZD/USD. I'll either wake up with a huge profit or most of my earnings from the past two months wiped out. Because sometimes you just gotta' go for the gusto.
[UPDATE 5-30-12: I got back in EUR/USD shorts the next week...closed my AUD NZD shorts last week...still in the EUR/USD short and in fact just went all in on that with a target of 1.21...}
[UPDATE 6-1-12: The Big EUR/USD SHORT: The gift that keeps on giving! Break below 1.23 imminent...]
(I think I'm allowed to gloat a bit especially after the past few days, heh. I'M RICH BITCHES!)
Thanks again Tyler! I owe you buddy!
Media postive spin: Well, after the revisions the 69 change in NFP print is only marginally worse than last month's 77!
Of course. Our economy functions off of spin, manipulation of stats to pretend everything is ok. This is how things are done in a fascist society
Debt does not equal wealth. Debt saturation must be expunged. That means defaults, write downs, repudiations and no reason to be bullish about broad equity indices. Specific companies maybe. Gold certainly. Fixed income in "reliable" names - which are a few sovereigns and a few companies. Primary goal should be capital preservation. Past time to get real.
Debt does not equal wealth? Watch what you say...California Congressman Pete Stark might throw you out a window!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjbPZAMked0
NWO - Getting it's one thing. Keeping it's another. Please be careful you don't lose your sense of balance and end up giving it all right back. It's happened to me and countless others many times before. Respect leverage. It's your biggest enemy.
Back on Topic with this post: Obama's only political chance for re-election now is to try and harness the passion in the occupy movement and identify Romney with the 1%, and himself with the 99%. It is a political strategy that could definitely work for him, but of course, that would mean he would have to take on the big banks and try to bring them to justice (he must publically blame Romney = big banks for our economic woes). He hasn't shown anywhere near the balls needed for this political course so far, but desperation may be about to set in with this horrendous economic report. Such a path would make for a very interesting rest of 2012.
Obama cannot possibly run on his record so he has to try and make it about Romney. The trouble is Romney is well-known as a very moderate, shrewd businessmans and making him into some rich, rightwing, evangelical screamer will be difficult at best. Romney was my absolute last choice but when compared to Obama, there IS no choice.
You could write-in Ron Paul, ya know!
Dont' forget to hit the donate button. And after buying a few t-shirts could you send me a coffe mug? Dropped mine watching CNBS
There will be profit for those here who ACT. I posted this a few days ago: Well at least one POOR guy is fast growing rich off these fucks...
We're so impressed with your expert trading skills. I bet your up over $300 today!
just go ask Tyler, that's where he gets his info...
As long as he doesn't start eating people's faces, it's all good.
Everyone with a face should avoid him, then!
again: this impacts EUROPE not the USA. Take a chill pill sheeple! You're Space RV has hit "hyperactive" today.
again: this impacts EUROPE not the USA.
Heh heh.....good one chief!
"this impacts EUROPE not the USA"
How so?
BTW, you should've used "your" vice "you're".
If you don't have a US consumer "you'll be lucky to sell that Volkswagon for 50 bucks."
"If you don't have a US consumer "you'll be lucky to sell that Volkswagon for 50 bucks.""
True, but isn't our largest trading bloc in the East, rather than Europe? I know that I see far fewer VW's around here than I see Kia/Hyundai/Toyota/Nissan products on the roads. Maybe French wines and imported German worst may take a hit, but I think that folks who buy European goods are far more insulated from these "little ups and downs" than the average buyer.
"our largest trading bloc"
Doesn't "trade" require selling something to the other party ? What the fuck do we sell to China beside Benny Bucks ?
all your secrets and other intellectual property, obviously...
"all your secrets and other intellectual property"
I do believe he was talking about "sell", not "give" (or "allow" to be stolen).
good point...
" What the fuck do we sell to China beside Benny Bucks ? "
Just Treasuries (or, we used to).
But. my point is, what else would we trade with any other country/region? What do we have that Europe wants, or will trade for luxury goods?
Was the answer f*ck yeah, to Infinity
There will be no QE 3. The current politics simply will not allow it.
I agree, but don't say that too loud around here.
They won't announce it in June is my guess. The numbers aren't bad enough and despite what this post implies Obama doesn't call the shots. When they fail to deliver in June it will make people very unhappy. Then a bit later they can print. Printing with the S&P above 1200 will be hard to justify and the market won't drop below that as long as they think the goodies are just around the corner.
I think QE will come when it has the greatest impact on the elections and not before. Doing QE now will not have the impact this administration will need for their boost.
The crisis must be in full swing so they can capitalise on it! We are still missing the riots in the streets.
The magnitude of the downward revision for April suggests that this reported is fudged in the opposite direction it normally is in order to allow the Fed room to move. In other words, to go ahead and print with the excuse that they are doing it to help the employment situation.
That said, they can't just print indiscriminately without risking bringing their house of cards down on their own heads, and with all the money pouring into UStreasuries at the moment, and the high uncertainty regarding policy responses in Europe, China, Japan, ect., it's unlikely that they are going to do anything until something very bad happens. The reason they allowed such a bad report today is that they know something bad is going to happen, and they need the employment situation excuse to print when it does happen. What that something bad is exactly no one can say, but it will surely be a result of too much credit and not enough assets.
10 yr is under 1.5 (1.46 and ticking down) ... holy fuck
We don't need no stinkin jobs!
Just call the unemployed terrorists and there is your economic stimulus.
Unemployed? Indefinite retention.
Lock and load.
Who was the German who said that "when things get serious you have to lie" ? The 8,2% rate of unemployment is such a lie that it offends both our intellect but more importantly those who are well and truly unemployed but somehow don't fully meet the definition..
lies, damn lies and statistics.
A mathematician, statistician and economist are all interviewing for a job.
The interviewer asks the mathematician, "what is 2 + 2" to which the mathematician replies, "4".
The interviewer asks the statistician, "what is 2+2" to which the statistician replies, "4 +/- 10%".
The interviewer ask the economist, "what is 2 + 2"... the economists stands up, draws the shades, closes the door and replies, "what would you like it to equal"?
Get focused on the real trade; sovereign credit.
Yep.. Wheels up!
Good on Jim Willie, he called this to the T
I keep thinking that this is the point to jump in and short bonds but we could actually see negative rates. If someone can hold on for the long run this could be one of the greatest coups in history. No way bonds will stay at zero or negative forever (uh oh -Japan?)
It's even worse than it appears. The April NFP was revised down to 77,000 from 115,000. Guess that couldn't fly under the radar. Got gold?
Next month May will be revised flat.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A
usually CNBC runs a banner showing the prior month revisions ... not today. this shit is getting SO old ...
Finally an admission that we have been lied to, lied to and lied to!
Wow.....this is the first I'm hearing about this.
Can't wait for the White House to make an announcement about NFP.
"Can't wait for the White House to make an announcement about NFP."
Should be easy enough to spin - "Since the Non-Farm Payroll numbers have been allowed to dip, Our President has created a great new demand pull in the Farm Payroll sector!
Background reasoning would be that all of those unemployed now losing their EUP payments will be raising Victory Gardens on their rooftops in the projects..
Jay the Carney will say "We continue to add jobs"
Well not so much add......more like created or saved.....ok strike the created.....just saved.
Hilda Solis addressing this reminds me of a surreal SNL skit.
Obama can blame GWB for being in WH yesterday!
GW had a great line, obama will be asking "What would George do?" as he walks by his portrait.
Wait until months end when another 600,000 lose employment benefits, bank Holidays and economic martial law "here we come"
It's even worse than that.
The CES Birth/Death model showed that jobs increased by 204,000 (statistically made-up, fantasy, phoney jobs). If one considers the BD model to be total bullshit (as I do) then 204,000 - 69,000 = 135,000 jobs actually lost!
Shocker
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2012/05/now-ive-got-it.html
Now I've Got ItIn "What We Talk About When We Talk About Recession," Bloomberg reports on yet another survey where the majority of respondents view things differently than the so-called experts on Wall Street.
Do feelings trump facts for small business owners? Three years after the Great Recession ended, 71 percent of small business owners indicated they “believe the United States economy is still in a recession,” according to a survey (PDF) of just over 1,000 of them released today by U.S. Bank (USB).
According to Bloomberg, the disparity between what most people are seeing and what is "really" going on is a definitional problem, resulting from the fact that the average Joe doesn't really understand the economic lingo.
To economists, a recession is “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales,” according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, which officially designates when a recession begins and ends.
That wonky definition doesn’t necessarily match how people perceive the economy, says Richard DeKaser, deputy chief economist at The Parthenon Group consulting firm. “It’s not uncommon to see these kinds of dramatic disconnects between experiences and perceptions,” he says. “Even though an economy may technically be expanding, as it has now for three years, most people feel the economy is in a recession if it’s operating below full employment” or its full potential.
The report also suggests that popular perceptions -- or rather, misperceptions -- about the state of the economy stem from a superficial and simplistic assessment of reality, made worse by sound-bite journalism.
Business owners’ view of the economy may also be colored by headlines about stock prices and unemployment that get more attention than the rather obscure calculations of turns in the business cycle, says Brian Headd, economist at the Small Business Administration’s Office of Advocacy. “What we see all the time are stock market levels and job levels,” he says. Neither the unemployment rate nor the S&P 500 have returned to their pre-crash levels, and Headd says many people think “my 401(k) isn’t back where it was yet, so it must be a recession.”
In sum, it appears, the reason why most business owners -- and most Americans -- believe the economy remains in trouble is because they don't have the same knowledge and skill set as the individuals who, as a group, failed to anticipate the worst financial crisis and most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression.
Now I've got it.
Hope you take profits on EUR/USD at 1.23.. could see a nice shoot up.. need to be careful with this amount of shorts out there..
For the fun of it, I just clicked over to Business Insider-even they can't put a happy face on this one!
What?! Even that hack propagandist Joe Weisenthal couldn't spin this news as further evidence of Obama's godliness?
QE:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DoEsG7lcRY&feature=related
MAN OVERBOARD!!!!
GOLD DID $22 REVERSAL!!!
prepare for margin hikes ... it's all they got left ...
"prepare for a moonshot" actually.
Rockefeller - Rothschild partnership will fix this problem!
One of the 81,000?
fuck these faggots who comment "first"
This isn't a meme on facebook you are commenting on son, get a life instead of waiting like a little bitch for TD to post and then writing a single word that provides no value to the discussion.
I was 1st to fuck your mom and certainly wasn't the last
if you would have finished up with sodomizing your dog a little earlier this morning you could have had the first comment
Maybe go with the 1/2 caff?
+1 for your name. :-)
http://www.businessinsider.com/most-unemployed-city-in-every-state-2012-...
Presenting The Most Unemployed City In Every StateDetroit - 8.7% unemployment. LMFAO.
And how does "first" add to the commentary and intelligent thought on Zero Hedge. Isn't that something a first grader would do? Absurd post;
see above reply to financial apocolypse
It's just a freaking joke. Zh posters take themselves WAY too seriously. Lighten up and sit back for a first hand look at the fall of the greatest power that ever existed on the planet.
Minus one otto, for improper salutation. You forgot "bitchez."
Hey Otto, here I was thinking that Geithner is an idiot.
Are your parents aware of what you are up to or have they run away from home?
"Like a storm in the desert"
Bring it on!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vpNLLcE-rc
Bad news is good news..
Obummer :(
green shits
Oh sorry
green shits
(How'd that happen?)
Release the Kraken! (QE)
Vincent Vega
More like "the Cracker." where is Bill Clinton these days anyways?
disabledvet
Bill Clinton is at the Walker recall hootenanny.
And he is complimenting Romney/Bain.
Wasn't he just talking about we all need to lose weight and "phuck your Slurpie"? I mean we are talking Bubba here are we not? WTF?
QE = Quantitative Easing or Quixotic Enema?
don't let the door of the Choom Wagon hit you on the ass on the way out of the WH
Picking a president based on skin color is as stupid as picking a wife based on breast size.
Taterboy
The second part of your statement is incorrect.
Yeah, do YOU wanna feed the babies at 3am?
Hey Otto, why couldn't this be your first omment?
The worse things get, the greater the QE.
BUY, BUY, BUY,
triple the 8.2% to get the real number
I am not unemployed, just self employed with a customer who isn't paying. There are many like me, not on NFP.
What a cluster f___ this whole economic "dream" is turning out to be.
Mission accomplished!
Can i see your papers?
cherry picker
"I am not unemployed, just self employed with a customer who isn't paying."
Have you tried breaking a limb or two? I hear that is pretty effective on reminding debtors of their obligations.
Looking for someone in the "pay me now phucker" department?
8.2%... lol
Asteroids pass the Earth closer than this.
Are you sure you're not mistaking zem for 'ze planes'?
Used to be. Now it's drones.
More QE because it has been working so well. How about suspending income tax for everyone?
How about suspending income (salaries) for all elected officials?
It's funny how futures sell off until the actual number is released. It's as if the lousy print was priced in beforehand...
"It's funny how futures sell off until the actual number is released."
Surely you are not implying that there are those "in the know" trading on this information before it's released! Isn't that illegal? Except of course for our esteemed members of Congress and the Senate.
bring it bitchezzzzz
Always amazed by the reaction to a number that is subject to huge revisions.
and manipulation
It really is meaningless in the big picture. Last month was about 40% revision, and the B/D portion was like 200k?
So next month we will could add 150k jobs, but twice that number is a fudge factor, and it has a +- of 50%?
This just adds in some randomness to the market so people don't get bored watching HFT bots playing ping pong with FB shares.
pods
And keeps Biderman busy counting off balancesheet beans.
This means record executive bonuses again.
America -- FUCK YEAH!
That looks good for economy outlook!
On the other hands, that's 8,2% army ready people.
Most won't join while there's a good chance of ending up in the Middle East or Afghanistan. Remember during the Iraq invasion how some National Guard troops complained about being deployed overseas? They said they only joined for the educational benefits and never expected to actually be asked to do anything.
They will not be asked. Just a new law "For every month of unemployment, 3 months in army" or similar crazy stuff.
B.S. - Not with a $500B sequestration coming...
War just began ,bitchez.
How do you miss so much????????????
WAIT...it was the weather!! It snowed in Alaska #spin
Obama's gone
http://www.brotherjohnf.com
http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF
....and his replacement can't wait to go to war with Iran, then it's on to Russia, whom he calls "public enemy no. 1"
the poison you know is often better than the poison you don't. There may be a tinge of doubt about who exactly owns Obama.
There is absolutely none when it comes to Mutt.
Just sayin', careful what you wish for here.
Neither a Republican nor Democrat be.
Regime change starts at home
TGIF
It's just so darn cute when the kids think there is a difference between Republicans / Democrats.
Just to be clear, what you are seeing is two little puppets fighting on a stage. What you don't see, but all of the adults in the audience know, is that there is only one puppet master behind the stage.
OOf... dam..
Long bond, wow!
History in the making.
LMAO! Now yer a bond dork? What happened to all those momo's?
RobotChump simply reports news. If only ZH had an ignore button...
nice pic
That's the only good thing about Robo coming back to the board...........for a lower look at the good stuff, see Cranky Old Geezer........
I thought Robo was gone for good. I didn't miss him/her.
Word is Elon Musk will now build a Spaceport in Alabama.
Switzerland showed the way. Issue $1.6 quadrillion at -1% per annum and poof, no more debt after the first year. I'm sure the Fed will buy them, since they can just print more money.
Just a bit outside.
Was this the other shoe to drop!
Births and deaths > 200k, what gives?
the plunge protection team will have to call in their reserves!
Ohhhh...this is where everyone is at.
To the moon Alice! Wait, why is the DOW red, QE is in the bag!
'QE'.....pfffft yea sure.
Thank you. QE3/New QE has been talked about here since April of last year. I think the horse is sufficiently beaten.
Tom Keene:
"The 30-year is now the 6 - mo. T-Bill"
LOL.......
I HEAR THE CHOPPERS COMIN! THEY'RE FLYING OVERHEAD! THEY'RE COMING FOR THE WOUNDED! THEY'RE COMING FOR
Is that to the tune of Johnny Cash?
Got Gold?
But...But...Aren't more people leaving the work force?!?! We gotta keep that unemployment rate down dammit!
That's what doing away with the extension of benefits is for. Huge numbers will fall out of the work force when that happens. Good times!
No wonder they've been shit kicking pm's in advance of an avalanche of new funny money that's not worth the paper it isn't printed on (h/t Gerry Celente)
Birth/Death PLUS 204,000 ... WTF, again!?!?!
I picked a bad week to stop sniffing maria bartiromo's ass
Your UE claim is as valid as the next guy's...