NFP Huge Miss At 69,000 On Expectations Of 150,000; Unemployment Rate 8.2%

Tyler Durden's picture

And we have NEW QE liftoff, just as we predicted yesterday: "That the ADP would miss today's expectations of 150K is no surprise: after all as we have been explaining for a while, the only way the Fed will have a green light to proceed with NEW QE if it so chooses at the June 19-20 meeting, is if the economic data suddenly turn horrendous. Which means tomorrow's NFP data is make or break: in fact, as far as markets are concerned, the worse the better - should a -1,000,000 NFP print come in, stocks will soar." It may take a little while for the realization to soak in. The actual number of +69,000 was a massive miss to both the expectation of 150,000, and the whisper number 100,000, and a drop from the massively revised April 77K, which was 115K before. And that is with a 204,000 addition from Birth Death. Just a total disaster for Obama who has decided to sacrifice the perception of an improving economy just so he can give Bernanke a green light to goose the stock market.

3rd monthly miss in a row...

A 4-sigma miss to expectations...

From the report, which was, simply said, ghastly.

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May (+69,000), following a similar change in April (+77,000). In comparison, the average monthly gain was 226,000 in the first quarter of the year. In May, employment rose in health care, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade, while construction lost jobs. (See table B-1.)


Health care employment continued to increase in May (+33,000). Within the industry, employment in ambulatory health care services, which includes offices of physicians and outpatient care centers, rose by 23,000 over the month. Over the year, health care employment has risen by 340,000.


Transportation and warehousing added 36,000 jobs over the month. Employment gains in transit and ground passenger transportation (+20,000) and in couriers and messengers (+5,000) followed job losses in those industries in April. Employment in both industries has shown little net change over the year. In May, truck transportation added 7,000 jobs.


Employment in wholesale trade rose by 16,000 over the month. Since reaching an employment low in May 2010, this industry has added 184,000 jobs.


Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in May (+12,000) following a similar change in April (+9,000). Job gains averaged 41,000 per month in the first quarter of this year. In May, employment rose in fabricated metal products (+6,000) and in primary metals (+4,000). Since its most recent low in January 2010, manufacturing employment has increased by 495,000.


Construction employment declined by 28,000 in May, with job losses occurring in specialty trade contractors (-18,000) and in heavy and civil engineering construction (-11,000). Since reaching a low in January 2011, employment in construction has shown little  change on net.


Employment in professional and business services was essentially unchanged in May. Since the most recent low point in September 2009, employment in this industry has grown by 1.4 million. In May, job losses in accounting and bookkeeping services (-14,000) and in services to buildings and dwellings (-14,000) were offset by small gains elsewhere in the industry.


Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, retail trade, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government, changed  little in May.


The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in May. The manufacturing workweek declined by 0.3 hour to 40.5 hours, and factory overtime declined by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

Remember when we were warning about seasonal adjustments? Well they work both ways. May is the first month of the year in which seasonal adjustment subtract from the unadjusted number. Sure enough: 718,000 jobs were statistically removed from the unadjusted Establishment Survey number, which actually increased by 789,000 in May.

The only silver lining: people out of the labor force declined by 522,000 in May.

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Shocker's picture

Here we go again, . This recoveery is surely taking its time


WonderDawg's picture

I thought we answered the QE question for good yesterday?

GetZeeGold's picture



Ben Shalom is naked and hiding under his desk.......not a good sign.


NewWorldOrange's picture

There will be profit for those here who ACT. I posted this a few days ago: Well at least one POOR guy is fast growing rich off these fucks:

Been short EUR/USD for nearly a month, as well as NZD/USD and AUD/USD. Scaled in for two weeks. ALL IN NOW. Do or die. Thanks Tyler. The incessant "gloom and doom" on Europe definitely encouraged me. I owe you buddy;:


Sun, 05/06/2012 - 17:37 | 2401652 NewWorldOrange "It's going to be a very interesting summer." Yes indeed it is. Perhaps even better than last summer (for currency traders.) As for this evening, I think AUD/USD and/or NZD/USD are better shorts than EUR/USD. Always great "risk off" trades, especially on a Sunday evening after such a weekend. Whether the markets perceive increased volatility much in part due to the Europe elections, a decline in global markets, or are still just pricing in the Friday's jobs report, there is likely to be a flight to the "safety of the US dollar" (yeah, I know - LMAO too) and when that happens the Aussie and Kiwi usually take a real beating. Especially if commodities markets are trending down as they have been.

Shorted both and EUR/USD Friday afternoon. Just closed EUR/USD. Just added BIG to my already sizeable shorts on AUD/USD and NZD/USD. I'll either wake up with a huge profit or most of my earnings from the past two months wiped out. Because sometimes you just gotta' go for the gusto.

[UPDATE 5-30-12: I got back in EUR/USD shorts the next week...closed my AUD NZD shorts last week...still in the EUR/USD short and in fact just went all in on that with a target of 1.21...}

[UPDATE 6-1-12: The Big EUR/USD SHORT: The gift that keeps on giving! Break below 1.23 imminent...]

(I think I'm allowed to gloat a bit especially after the past few days, heh. I'M RICH BITCHES!)

Thanks again Tyler! I owe you buddy!

Hard1's picture

Media postive spin:  Well, after the revisions the 69 change in NFP print is only marginally worse than last month's 77!

Colombian Gringo's picture

Of course. Our economy functions off of spin, manipulation of stats to pretend everything is ok.  This is how things are done in a fascist society

CClarity's picture

Debt does not equal wealth.  Debt saturation must be expunged.  That means defaults, write downs, repudiations and no reason to be bullish about broad equity indices.  Specific companies maybe.  Gold certainly.  Fixed income in "reliable" names - which are a few sovereigns and a few companies.  Primary goal should be capital preservation.  Past time to get real.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



Debt does not equal wealth?  Watch what you say...California Congressman Pete Stark might throw you out a window!

eclectic syncretist's picture

NWO - Getting it's one thing.  Keeping it's another.  Please be careful you don't lose your sense of balance and end up giving it all right back.  It's happened to me and countless others many times before.  Respect leverage.  It's your biggest enemy. 


Back on Topic with this post:  Obama's only political chance for re-election now is to try and harness the passion in the occupy movement and identify Romney with the 1%, and himself with the 99%.  It is a political strategy that could definitely work for him, but of course, that would mean he would have to take on the big banks and try to bring them to justice (he must publically blame Romney = big banks for our economic woes).  He hasn't shown anywhere near the balls needed for this political course so far, but desperation may be about to set in with this horrendous economic report.  Such a path would make for a very interesting rest of 2012.

smb12321's picture

Obama cannot possibly run on his record so he has to try and make it about Romney.  The trouble is Romney is well-known as a very moderate, shrewd businessmans and making him into some rich, rightwing, evangelical screamer will be difficult at best.   Romney was my absolute last choice but when compared to Obama, there IS no choice.

StychoKiller's picture

You could write-in Ron Paul, ya know!

phalfa5's picture

Dont' forget to hit the donate button.  And after buying a few t-shirts could you send me a coffe mug?  Dropped mine watching CNBS

Travis Bickel's picture

There will be profit for those here who ACT. I posted this a few days ago: Well at least one POOR guy is fast growing rich off these fucks...

We're so impressed with your expert trading skills. I bet your up over $300 today!

Harlequin001's picture

just go ask Tyler, that's where he gets his info...

El's picture

As long as he doesn't start eating people's faces, it's all good.

StychoKiller's picture

Everyone with a face should avoid him, then!

disabledvet's picture

again: this impacts EUROPE not the USA. Take a chill pill sheeple! You're Space RV has hit "hyperactive" today.

GetZeeGold's picture



again: this impacts EUROPE not the USA.


Heh heh.....good one chief!


Iam_Silverman's picture

"this impacts EUROPE not the USA"

How so?

BTW, you should've used "your" vice "you're".

disabledvet's picture

If you don't have a US consumer "you'll be lucky to sell that Volkswagon for 50 bucks."

Iam_Silverman's picture

"If you don't have a US consumer "you'll be lucky to sell that Volkswagon for 50 bucks.""

True, but isn't our largest trading bloc in the East, rather than Europe?  I know that I see far fewer VW's around here than I see Kia/Hyundai/Toyota/Nissan products on the roads.  Maybe French wines and imported German worst may take a hit, but I think that folks who buy European goods are far more insulated from these "little ups and downs" than the average buyer.

Kayman's picture

"our largest trading bloc"

Doesn't "trade" require selling something to the other party ? What the fuck do we sell to China beside Benny Bucks ?

Harlequin001's picture

all your secrets and other intellectual property, obviously...

Iam_Silverman's picture

"all your secrets and other intellectual property"

I do believe he was talking about "sell", not "give" (or "allow" to be stolen).

Iam_Silverman's picture

" What the fuck do we sell to China beside Benny Bucks ? "

Just Treasuries (or, we used to).

But. my point is, what else would we trade with any other country/region?  What do we have that Europe wants, or will trade for luxury goods?

ArrestBobRubin's picture

Was the answer f*ck yeah, to Infinity

ghenny's picture

There will be no QE 3.  The current politics simply will not allow it.

WonderDawg's picture

I agree, but don't say that too loud around here.

DeadFred's picture

They won't announce it in June is my guess. The numbers aren't bad enough and despite what this post implies Obama doesn't call the shots. When they fail to deliver in June it will make people very unhappy. Then a bit later they can print. Printing with the S&P above 1200 will be hard to justify and the market won't drop below that as long as they think the goodies are just around the corner.

GCT's picture

I think QE will come when it has the greatest impact on the elections and not before.  Doing QE now will not have the impact this administration will need for their boost.

The crisis must be in full swing so they can capitalise on it!   We are still missing the riots in the streets.

eclectic syncretist's picture

The magnitude of the downward revision for April suggests that this reported is fudged in the opposite direction it normally is in order to allow the Fed room to move.  In other words, to go ahead and print with the excuse that they are doing it to help the employment situation.

That said, they can't just print indiscriminately without risking bringing their house of cards down on their own heads, and with all the money pouring into UStreasuries at the moment, and the high uncertainty regarding policy responses in Europe, China, Japan, ect., it's unlikely that they are going to do anything until something very bad happens.  The reason they allowed such a bad report today is that they know something bad is going to happen, and they need the employment situation excuse to print when it does happen.  What that something bad is exactly no one can say, but it will surely be a result of too much credit and not enough assets.

bdc63's picture

10 yr is under 1.5 (1.46 and ticking down) ... holy fuck

Max Hunter's picture

We don't need no stinkin jobs!

Widowmaker's picture

Just call the unemployed terrorists and there is your economic stimulus.

Unemployed? Indefinite retention.

Lock and load.

Peter Pan's picture

Who was the German who said that "when things get serious you have to lie" ? The 8,2% rate of unemployment is such a lie that it offends both our intellect but more importantly those who are well and truly unemployed but somehow don't fully meet the definition..

kridkrid's picture

lies, damn lies and statistics.

A mathematician, statistician and economist are all interviewing for a job. 

The interviewer asks the mathematician, "what is 2 + 2" to which the mathematician replies, "4". 

The interviewer asks the statistician, "what is 2+2" to which the statistician replies, "4 +/- 10%". 

The interviewer ask the economist, "what is 2 + 2"... the economists stands up, draws the shades, closes the door and replies, "what would you like it to equal"?

3MonthsZHober's picture

Get focused on the real trade; sovereign credit.

ArrestBobRubin's picture

Good on Jim Willie, he called this to the T

smb12321's picture

I keep thinking that this is the point to jump in and short bonds but we could actually see negative rates.  If someone can hold on for the long run this could be one of the greatest coups in history.   No way bonds will stay at zero or negative forever (uh oh -Japan?)


jekyll island's picture

It's even worse than it appears.  The April NFP was revised down to 77,000 from 115,000.  Guess that couldn't fly under the radar.  Got gold?  

bdc63's picture

usually CNBC runs a banner showing the prior month revisions ... not today.  this shit is getting SO old ...

Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

Finally an admission that we have been lied to, lied to and lied to!

GetZeeGold's picture



Wow.....this is the first I'm hearing about this.


slaughterer's picture

Can't wait for the White House to make an announcement about NFP. 

Iam_Silverman's picture

"Can't wait for the White House to make an announcement about NFP."

Should be easy enough to spin - "Since the Non-Farm Payroll numbers have been allowed to dip, Our President has created a great new demand pull in the Farm Payroll sector!

Background reasoning would be that all of those unemployed now losing their EUP payments will be raising Victory Gardens on their rooftops in the projects..

azzhatter's picture

Jay the Carney will say "We continue to add jobs"