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NFP Huge Miss At 69,000 On Expectations Of 150,000; Unemployment Rate 8.2%
And we have NEW QE liftoff, just as we predicted yesterday: "That the ADP would miss today's expectations of 150K is no surprise: after all as we have been explaining for a while, the only way the Fed will have a green light to proceed with NEW QE if it so chooses at the June 19-20 meeting, is if the economic data suddenly turn horrendous. Which means tomorrow's NFP data is make or break: in fact, as far as markets are concerned, the worse the better - should a -1,000,000 NFP print come in, stocks will soar." It may take a little while for the realization to soak in. The actual number of +69,000 was a massive miss to both the expectation of 150,000, and the whisper number 100,000, and a drop from the massively revised April 77K, which was 115K before. And that is with a 204,000 addition from Birth Death. Just a total disaster for Obama who has decided to sacrifice the perception of an improving economy just so he can give Bernanke a green light to goose the stock market.
3rd monthly miss in a row...
A 4-sigma miss to expectations...
From the report, which was, simply said, ghastly.
Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May (+69,000), following a similar change in April (+77,000). In comparison, the average monthly gain was 226,000 in the first quarter of the year. In May, employment rose in health care, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade, while construction lost jobs. (See table B-1.)
Health care employment continued to increase in May (+33,000). Within the industry, employment in ambulatory health care services, which includes offices of physicians and outpatient care centers, rose by 23,000 over the month. Over the year, health care employment has risen by 340,000.
Transportation and warehousing added 36,000 jobs over the month. Employment gains in transit and ground passenger transportation (+20,000) and in couriers and messengers (+5,000) followed job losses in those industries in April. Employment in both industries has shown little net change over the year. In May, truck transportation added 7,000 jobs.
Employment in wholesale trade rose by 16,000 over the month. Since reaching an employment low in May 2010, this industry has added 184,000 jobs.
Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in May (+12,000) following a similar change in April (+9,000). Job gains averaged 41,000 per month in the first quarter of this year. In May, employment rose in fabricated metal products (+6,000) and in primary metals (+4,000). Since its most recent low in January 2010, manufacturing employment has increased by 495,000.
Construction employment declined by 28,000 in May, with job losses occurring in specialty trade contractors (-18,000) and in heavy and civil engineering construction (-11,000). Since reaching a low in January 2011, employment in construction has shown little change on net.
Employment in professional and business services was essentially unchanged in May. Since the most recent low point in September 2009, employment in this industry has grown by 1.4 million. In May, job losses in accounting and bookkeeping services (-14,000) and in services to buildings and dwellings (-14,000) were offset by small gains elsewhere in the industry.
Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, retail trade, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government, changed little in May.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in May. The manufacturing workweek declined by 0.3 hour to 40.5 hours, and factory overtime declined by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
Remember when we were warning about seasonal adjustments? Well they work both ways. May is the first month of the year in which seasonal adjustment subtract from the unadjusted number. Sure enough: 718,000 jobs were statistically removed from the unadjusted Establishment Survey number, which actually increased by 789,000 in May.
The only silver lining: people out of the labor force declined by 522,000 in May.
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Have you seen the size of that ass? It would take a week just to survey and then another week to grid the damn thing before even attempting actual contact. I would rather just go to the local pork slaughter house. Smell and quality much better.
here comes the BS spin, personal spending up 0.3% all is well
Summer of Recovery IV, this time is different.
Totally fabricated... the unemployment rate should have never dropped below 10% to begin with.
So what will 69,000 be revised down too?
Any guesses?
Put me down for $10 on 'N - 3000'.
69,000 will be revised down to 2, so that Obama can keep claiming that he is creating jobs (plural)
Because this recovery is about a three letter word; jobs, j-o-b-s.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBHPvfAt5ow
I'll put $5 on 32,000.
...a waste of $5...
please STOP with the QE pronouncements.
THIS TRADE IS TOO ONE SIDED ~ TOO MANY ARE EXPECTING THIS TRADE, and TOO MANY PEOPLE ARE BETTING ON THIS TRADE!! WHEN THE BOAT IS LOADED WITH ALL TO ONE SIDE ~ GET TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BOAT!!
WHAT WILL THE election year REPUBLICANS SAY IF BERNANKE WAS TO ANNOUNCE QE? will the FED be politicized ~ YES!
No doubt! I realize all the stawk junkies want their free money fix but DREAM ON.
People may be dumb, but not dumb enough to miss 'QE' and bailouts and all this other BS is just handing free money to the rich...they know NONE of this has helped them at all.
Far as Im concerned they'd only do 'QE' if the plan is to torpedo Hussein.
ha, an addict needs their fix! election? pffffft.
CNBS zombies are chanting QE3 QE3 QE3!
Like QE has saved us before! not.
Romney republicans are TARP lovers, they will never kill the money printing machine operators.
When the only tool one has is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. The Bernank will talk about all the tools the Fed has at it's disposal but at the end of the day all it can do is print. It hasn't worked. It won't work. But it is what they will do. <imho>
Chapter 1: "The name of the game is Bailout!"
"The Creature From Jekyll Island, a Second Look at the Federal System", 5th Ed., G. Edward Griffin, ISBN: 978-0-912986-45-6
Well, that's great. Ben, send some of that QE my way.
stocks donr care they need the money now not later
If several more months of this is what it takes to get rid of the goddam fool TOTUS, so be it.
Not a fool. But definitely a Tool.
This is the true Operation Twist. The long-dated unemployeds are gobbling up the short-termers, pushing down the yield.
I love when math and magic converge!
And under-the-table workers are the discount window? :)
Those are called "the drug dealers."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KoaI2a-D0TQ
"...cause it's Friday, you ain't got no job, and you ain't got shit to do."
I hear helicopters overhead ...... waiting for dollars to fall.
Remember who is doing this "for your own good" and beware the Susan B. Anthony coins.
Gonna be a long wait. The dollars will never fall to you.
More likely it will be an IRS (that's Infernal Rehypothecation Service) SWAT team coming for your PMs.
Be prepared: sew them in your clothes and no matter what else you do, don't try swimming in deep water.
Good thing we have Eric Cantor on CNBS to splain it all.
Who would have thought that the "Endgame" would have been kicked off by the "Black Swan" of the U.S. Treasury market doing a Nasdaq 5000 - style meltup?
Hyman Minsky.
You mean Hyrim Rickover.
I know I did and a lot of others. I have been looking for a sub 1% yield on 10 year treasuries before it blows up and I'll stick to that call.
Yea Robo, we were here calling this a year ago, what do you mean 'No one saw it comin'? Duh?
At what point does it get so bad that those with jobs are too afraid to go to them?
I'm investing in bonds. The ones at the Fantasy Ranch they use for the customers that like to get spanked.
"Oh beat me, fuck me, call me a muppet"!
Hilarious to see the guys like Eric Cantor wailing about the runaway deficits and a further downgrade of U.S. debt when the 10-yr. is at 60-year lows at 1.4%
Eric Cantor is a douche, he voted against the insider trading ban for congress.
B/D +204K!
I see a little man being thrown out of the helicopter or is he jumping.....
What 'crisis'? .1 blip in the unemployment which everone knows is phony anyway? Lets see a couple -5% down days in a row and then maybe I'll believe a shred of this QE hype....until then its just a Hopium pipedream.
.....But on the bright side.....
All these 'jobs' are re-imported from China -- right??
Anyone see the idiot trio - Zander, Swonk and Goolesby on CNBS this morning.
How come their predictions at 8:00 am EST were so OFF....as always. Smoking the Hopium.
Predictions.
Market goes down today (June 1) in a "controlled" fashion (it's all robots now).
Over weekend, talk of global central intervention starts. Monday huge gain. Massive volatility spike - it is September/October 2008 all over. We're saved! We're doomed! We're saved! We're doomed! We're saved! We're doomed!
Then we run out of options, and are just doomed. Price to book of S&P goes to 0.5 (2009 low) or 0.25 (Depression low). You do the math.
Romney wins election.
World ends in December, on schedule.
"Massive volatility spike"
So, should we go "All In" on Vix futures? Long or Short?
You forgot your disclosure statement.......
Cnbc transcript:
Blah blah blah QE3 blah blah blah QE3
QE3 QE3
QE3
QE3 QE3
Jim Cramer: This smart money is LONG Obama. BUY BUY BUY!
But, but......what was the "seasonal" adjustment?
And we have lift off in gold, silver, miners.
Now you know why - like every other month - the crooks crushed gold/silver before the report. Make both dig out from the hole. Gold would have blown through $1600 and silver through $30.
Hey, Chilton, where the hell is your compromised ass?
Blame it on the weather.
Bwahaha!!!!! Investors keep looking to make a quick buck on the market - FOOLS! How can anyone say with a straight face that unemployment is only 8.2%?? Bwahaha!!!!! People keep believing the BS from DC and network pundits like Cramer regarding the economy. The economy is hemorrhaging jobs and money - just a matter of time before it all goes Tango Uniform.
WHAT.....No Earthquake in Japan and subsequent nuclear meltdown this year.....how could this be?
Remember 2 years ago when Biden said soon US job growth will soon be +250k-500K. Turns out soon meant at some point in the next 10 years.
Gold futures rising like crazy....
Hey I know! Blame the cracka!
Birth Death added 204K to that figure
So far it looks as if they are trying to time the markets going into the election. Selloff is coming, get it over with now, bring on QE and rally into November. I think the general population has figured out that QE doesn't do a fucking thing for your personal situation in most cases.
What a surprise, QE / stock boosting does not equal real economic growth. But I doubt Bernanke gets this even now. More QE coming since they don't understand anything else. Just the name/procedure may be different.
Oh, they GET it....QE and all this bullshit was monetizing stocks and bonds to the central banksters for free....now they slaughter the herd. Get ready for it because these dreams of 'The benevolent Ben will come save my little stock portfolio surely now' dreams will be dashed on the cliff below.
You're very poetic this morning.
Stocks look cheap right now.
The recovery might be slowing,
The check's in the mail,
I won't...
You know the rest.
It will be an interesting day today from 2 pm til the close. This will show how much dry powder the PPT/Fed has left. Wouldn't want to start out the month with a red print, would we?
Cue the goddamned deer!!!
The situation is very complex. Europe is in the midst of a crisis far greater than what analysts say. Here in U.S. we continue to receive economic information is not conclusive. A month upgrade to next month gets worse. This happens with employment, personal spending, with revenues person, tax collection etc.. The trouble is that this behavior is typical of situations of transition from a situation good to bad or vice versa. I think we should expect the economic situation getting worse before it gets better.
"I think we should expect the economic situation getting worse before it gets better."
Wow, such clarity and foresight! With your ability to state the obvious, have you ever considered working as a financial adviser for BOA, Merrill Lynch, or any other sell-side financial entity?
Never be afraid to throw a bum out of office.
Woke up this morning and got myself a beer,
The future's uncertain and the end is always near..
There is no shortage of bums. Throw until your arms get tired. Then throw some more.
Let it roll.
I am sure more monetary stimulus, say 30% of GDP will fix all of that.
If we add more - like 60%, USA will get influx of jobs from China.
/krugman off
I'm BTFD this morning (just a little though) because if I miss one more bizzaro CB manipulated ripfest I will have to jump off a bridge.
QEn
Because it has worked so well in the past.
It's not about the economy. It's about giving free money to your buddies.
http://money.msn.com/investing/one-percenter-of-the-week
Pretty sweet job if you can get it.
WTF is Brusca?
I lol'd
"69"!! Did you say 69? Haha. Where do I start?
Ok, Here we go... Bernake walks into a gay brothel with Gietner...
Even worse, U6 is at 14.8% and non-employment is at 41.8%!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/01/a-very-european-recovery-unemployment-u6-rises-to-14-8-non-employment-rate-at-41-6-manufacturing-slows/