This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
NFP Less +103K Birth Death Adjustment = -23K; 530K Jobs Created In 2011 "Statistically"
And back to the old gimmicks: the Birth Death adjustment has now "added" 530 jobs in 2011, or 42% of the total 1,256K jobs added in 2011, and the October number of 102K is 31K greater than a year earlier. Truly business formation in the current recession is soaring...
Furthermore, the October Birth-Ddeath adjustment is the largest of the last 10 years - after September's was the lowest of the last 10 years - nothing to see here...
Chart: Bloomberg
»
- 11101 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
FU Birth death adjustment!
Come on Tyler, don't be a party pooper!
Got to keep the illusion going into the holiday shopping season to get the debt slaves out spending.
Gotta get that U/E under 9% to re-elect our Young, fresh Communista in Chief!
When are the doomers going to admit that they have been DEAD wrong about the economy? These consistently positive non farm payroll numbers prove that economic strength is simply a function of aggregate demand. This number bodes well for the future and for the Obama 2012 campaign. The American people are smart - they know that lying libertarians just want the economy to do badly so that their doomer hypotheses come true. Try all you want but Americans will keep spending us into a new golden age. OBAMA/BERNANKE 2012!!!
I may be wrong, but this blogspot doesn't feel like a good fit for you.
Yeah, smart enough to know that Barack Hussein Obama aka Barry Soetero aka Harrison J. Bounel aka Bari M. Shabazz belongs behind bars along with the rest of 'em.
What a comedian you are MBD, bodes well indeed. You know I give you credit for being sarcastic and trying to joke about the dire state of the economy but it is actually in poor taste to use the misery of others to score some laughs.
With net new working age population increases per month in the 300,000 range, and given the participation rate of about 65%, the economy has to add about 200,000 new jobs each and every month just to accommodate new workers needing jobs, never mind the more than 14 million who have lost their jobs and need to be reemployed. If you take away the invented fairytale new jobs created only in the spreadsheet of the birth/death model we actually lost jobs last month. We are now at a point where the economy could add 300,000 real jobs per month and it would take at least 11.6 years to get back to full employment.
If you think that bodes well for anyone then you are indeed the largest flaming asshole to ever spam these hallowed pages.
Why? They won't wake up until they have lost everything anyway.
Take your laughs where you can, I say!
All laughs come at the expense of others.
Stranger in a Strange Land'd
Green Shoots you can believe in !
At this pace of "recovery" Obama should sail to victory with a headline number of 7.5%.
LOL....... almost got me there, but the Bernanke gave you away......good try
All downvoters need to have their sarcasm detectors recalibrated... Or... No, he has to be joking.
Love your stuff-- do you think you can clear up my thinking on the positives of a wartime economy and also how atomic power is the way to go-- If you can throw in some EURO and the UN please-- My mind is all confused and I'd like some help. Any fool should see that debt is the only way to make real progress and instill a sense of pride in ones country while insuring a better future with ever increasing wealth for all.
Who invited that ^ retard? (million dollar)
Maybe sometimes your green shooting in the face of a dismal economy is kind of cutesy - but this is life and death for millions of people.
On behalf of the 10 million or so people not working that should be, go to fucking hell you piece of shit.
I'm an older guy who has not had a full time job with benefits in my field since June of 2009, just some temp contract work with no benefits. Which for me is problematic because of the costly medication I need for the severe diabetes and resulting complications - some months I've had to sell possessions to buy the meds.
So this disaster, absolute ongoing and ever worsining disaster, where even the "best" months under Obama have barely kept up with labor force growth, and the jobs are rebalancing away from high paying to low paying service jobs, this ongoing disaster is life and death for some people.
Do you hear me you piece of shit, death for some people.
Not about cutesy little trolling on internet sites, but their death.
So go to fucking hell you trolling piece of crap.
Quacker, the only thing I want to say really is I hope things turn up for you. But, the number of people needing good full-time jobs is not 10 million but more like 16.5 million.
As to green shoots, the only one I ever knew that shoots green was Kermit the frog and last time I checked he was unemployed too. But it could be worse, when Kudlow uses the term Goldilocks economy then it is time to duck and cover.
Quacker is the voice that the nightly news avoids like plague. He knows, and states the common man's problem as few politicos, yet hopefully most of us, do. Best wishes to you, going forward, Sir!
continuing amazing insights from MDB.
Once we get hyperinflation, the economy will be growing at quadruple % annual increases, and the government will be able to issue unlimited treasuries at 0%, because the economic growth will outpace the debt increase.
braaavo MDB.
Whatever, you'll believe it, fuck you.
http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/388737/rated-arg-for-pirates
Green sharts!
This is how the CONfidence play goes down, in all its manifest gore.
BLS, you're too good at what you do, with your clever Birth-Death Adjustments, the art of Zen & Hedonics in Motor Vehicle Repairs, and other such silliness.
Oh, BLS & FOMC, you coy, coy devils, you.
I hereby declare shenanigans, bitchez!
And I call skulduggery (i.e. artifice, chicane, chicanery, gamesmanship, hanky-panky, jiggery-pokery, jugglery, legerdemain, trickery, subterfuge, wile) on The Bernank!
I'd like to see someone perform buggery on the Bernank.
"I'd like to see someone perform buggery on the Bernank."
Barney Frank has first dibs!
Hey! Just because a guy is gay does NOT mean he is that hard up. Besides, he will have to wait till Berlusconi is done.
Make no mistake.
We are totally fucked.
But don't wait for the collapse.
Wait for the next giant war.
We are fucked with a capital "F".
We'll be fighting for the bankers.
http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com
Hey come on now! Those kids born today will make perfectly good slaves for the banksters in a few years, party on!
The birth death adjustment is a professionally devised formula to seek to determine the number of jobs produced in America's private sector which cannot be captured through more conventional means. It simply seeks to determine how many smaller businesses are created or closed in a given time span and what that equates to in terms of jobs.
People should look at this as an expression not of statistical rigging but of the rampant nature of American entrepeneurial exceptionalism. What this number is telling us is that Americans are forming far more businesses and closing fewer of them than ever before in history!
Why, just today, on my way to work in NYC, I saw six proud, exceptional entrepeneurs illustrative of this much derided figure hard at work. Three were selling used books. One was selling household goods. Two were selling fruit. American exceptionalism!
Thank you for the clarification, puts this month's unemployment report into historic perspective. Did they have a birth death model back in the last depression ?
Didn't Calculated Risk disprove that this is the way the Birth/Death adjustement model works?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/employment-comment-on-birthdeath-model.html
I know they don't exactly do a good job of explaining what the offset is (if there is any) but if someone could explain this to me, I'd appreciate it.
I used to work for the BLS and helped create the B/D model, and I also saw 6 people starting on the road to their own capitalist dream, 4 were washing widshields for "donations," three were panhandling coins, I mean selling "god bless you's" at street corners, 6 were busking in front of Fred Meyer, 12 were poaching trout in the lake next to the mercury factory, and at least 24 were making going out of business signs for the rest.
Carry the one..... subtract the three..... divide it all by wishes and lolipops and you get = Unemployment Claims Number is just okey dokey.
Then Maria starts singing....
"Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens
Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens
Brown paper packages tied up with strings
These are a few of my unemployment things"
Could it have been otherwise?
What a joke...
Well, now that you ask, it could have been other wise.
But it looks like it's really the same fool.
In dis-guise. If everyone got a job as a statistician, then perhaps, statistically, all would be well, eh?
Liesman, Damn Liesman etc...
ORI
war-memes-me-iran-israel-uk-us-social-engineering-planted-stories/
Birth/Death Adjustment (definition): the figure that when added or subtracted to BLS initial number equals Goldman's prediction.
Now that was something else. Nice.
ORI
Wait a minute, now lets be fair. My company fired 6 people in the last two weeks and I saw through Facebook that one was starting her own PR firm and another was going to start selling her artwork. So it may be possible that new busineses are spouting! </sarc>
Put your money in local efforts, don't give it Wall Street.
Now Elvis on velvet is probably NOT the place to start.
Get with the program. Your firm might have fired 6 people, but they employed 8 statistical drive-through cashiers. I'm surprised you didn't notice them.
In Birth-Death terms, those 6 people that were fired now represent the birth of 6 new businesses.
I guess the OWS will be packing up and heading home on all this good news.
I hope not, they counted the organizers (Professional & Business Services), cooks (Leisure & Hospitality), anyone that held up a sign (Education & Health Services), anyone that picked up some trash (Trade, Transportation, & Utilities) and anyone that did that "human PA system" thing (Other Services) in the birth/death model. Numbers would have been much worse without them.
And here I thought the whole OWS thing was part of the entertainment industry.
So just to clarify, in birth death terms: each person at the protest is counted as the creation of a separate small business, or is the entire OWS counted as just one business ?
I seem to notice more retail establishments closing than opening. Lot's of giant empty strip malls 'round here.
Much more 'death' than 'birth'.
I know of a couple companies that are about to fold.
I believe that it was reported here (ZH) last week that mall vacancies are at all time highs.
----
--The Ben S. Bernank; from his upcoming book, 'Dear God, I Hope You Get This Letter; Confessions of An Economic Hyena'
And to think I used to follow this number closely.
Oh me of so little faith.
Faith in this government? No way ... no how.
The only confidence I have now is that the charade will continue until it doesn't. And when it doesn't the 1%'ers will be shocked. Shocked I tell you.
Born even on paper to be indebted slaves... Nice!
Reminds me of a quote
"If you torture numbers long enough they will confess anything."
how fitting.
Clearly there are a lot of market participants that buy into this.
Cue Rod Stewart...
still I look, to find a reason, to believe...
I put my congressman hat: Bernanke did a fantastic job.
off topic, is groupon a good short?
If this was a real market I'd say yes. But I have no inside info. So, my view is useless in this worked market.
Not at 20 bucks (yet). Let the momos run it up real nice and then short
IMO long term this thing is a POS there are no barriers to competition and they charge the underlying retailer/service provider too much (for a service anyone can provide). So yes, once the pump monkeys fatten it up.
How does this birth/death adjustment help average Americans ? Is it just to help HFT or Wallstreet ?
It helps politicians. Only.
As one of them used to call such BS - boob bait for the Bubbas.
+1
OT: The quote of the week!
*EVERY U.S. CITIZEN A `DEBT MAN WALKING,' PIMCO'S GROSS SAYS
Did he include himself?
Thought so...
Of course not, he was referring to the mortals only.
Made my morning..I'm depressed
Mark Zandi; Chief Unicorn wrangler.
"530K Jobs Created In 2011 "Statistically""
Now, is that "created" or would it be more proper to say "saved or created"?
Isn't it only normal to expect " a slight slowdown in job growth" after our second "summer of recovery"?
NOW ,,,,, NOW you have gone TOO far.
MDB , smite this un-american pos!
Wait another 6 months when Obama really startes to have fun with the numbers and busts into the low 8% for his re-election blitz
Electoral College Shoots!!
BLS is not doing this right. Argentinian government fined last April a bunch of stupid economists who dared to calculate alternative inflation rates. Supermarket prices LIE, believe your government numbers! The fine was 125000 US dollars per economist or company. That ought to shut them up.
if we did that in the US would could probably pay the deficit for a few years. problem solved!
Well, looking at the non-seasonally adjusted numbers for October 2011, 485,000 people found employment ,the largest jump since April, which is always a good month for employment. A cool 418,000 people also fell off of the unemployment rolls.
And, the 'Not in labor force' number only jumped by 132,000 last month, suggesting that there were *real* gains made in employment.
On the other hand, the 'Participation rate' fell a tenth of a percent, to 64.1%. Historically, this number peaks in July and bottoms in Jan/Feb. The bad news for our society, is that this number is already significantly below last year's October reading of 64.4%. This data point correlates with the 'NILF' data point above, which has now risen by 1.3 million people in the past 12 months, to stand at 86.181 million. If historical trends hold true, we should be over 87 million in December, which would be another new record.
doesn't it kinda make sense though that, after 3 or 4 years worth of massive layoffs from the big multi-national corporations and banks etc, that more and more people would choose to start up their own firms...whether it be a consultancy or a totally new firm....and that's what the birth/death model is so slow in picking up initially but is now finally starting to catch up with?
You can't always poo poo the birth death model as if it has absolutely zero merit whatsoever. Is there any scenario where you would believe that small firms are being created but don't show up in the establishment surveys?
The games that TPTB are playing everywhere for so long will in the end kill them as when they really need the people to believe and trust them, they wont. They will be seen as part of the resident evil.
They will reap what they sow.
what a charade!
I like to have sex much more in January...than February..
That's because they are PAYING the OWS protestors. If those morons were not getting paid, they surely wouldn't be sleeping in tents, cold and rain. However it is NOT long term employment. Remember the other protest in Wisconsin, we added jobs then but quickly lost them again. LOOK at the numbers!!!
Obama's 2012 campaign slogan:
It's not catchy, but it just might work.
Hmmm... I've gotten used to them not counting the long term unemployed, discourage workers
as "not in the labor force".
Are they getting this "Birth Death Adjustment" by not counting them among the living?
hmmmmm an economy based on minimum wage service jobs supplying income for government, healthcare, and finance workers. How can that not work?
Millions of jobs are always added during the holiday season. They all go away in January. Of course that fact is adjusted out.
There is a minimum wage job out there for every unemployed person if they want it. Problem is that 99 weeks of unemployment pays more and has better benefits. After that going on welfare gives you a higher standard of living than 20 hours a week at Home Depot.
Of course you could always take a job that pays $25k that used to pay $50k but now has the added responsibily of 10 other $50k jobs. Oh and you need a PHD and already know every system the company uses inside and out with no training. If you ask a question during the interview, you won't be hired. In fact you actually need to know more than the CEO and be more qualified than him, but you still only get $25k.
I am still seeing postings for the same job after a year. There are no candidates that can fill the positions because the comapanies have insane expectations. I applied for a position at a design company and was asked if I was married and had a family. I said yes and that I had an 18 month old son. I was actually told that was unfortunate because they were looking for a candidate who wouldn't have any attachement outside the company. He saw my address and knew it was about 30 miles away. He asked if I would be willing to relocate closer to the company, as in within 5 miles away. He said we really need someone who can be available at a moments notice.
I'm not making this up. The pay was going to be $15k less than my current job. When I found that out I told the guy, "Well it looks lik I am not the best fit for your comapny because it looks like you want a slave. I'm not realy interested in living just to work for your company."
One year later the position is still open on the job boards.
<==Birth/Death excellent economic modelling tool
<== Birth/Death Political Hopium
It would be interesting to compare the above chart to previous administrations, say, the last 30 or 40 years (or however long the Birth/Death model has been used). I wonder if the January Rollback is getting bigger and bigger percentage-wise.
My wife lost her job this week. (They found it in India)
She made a puppet for our granddaughter. She paid us with giggles.
So I guess that will show as a net 0 job change for the November number.
One real job lost. One birth / death add.
why show only the adjusted numbers?
would like to see the raw and adjusted numbers overlaid
You want proof that it is 'too late'? BO got elected.