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NFP Less +103K Birth Death Adjustment = -23K; 530K Jobs Created In 2011 "Statistically"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And back to the old gimmicks: the Birth Death adjustment has now "added" 530 jobs in 2011, or 42% of the total 1,256K jobs added in 2011, and the October number of 102K is 31K greater than a year earlier. Truly business formation in the current recession is soaring...

Furthermore, the October Birth-Ddeath adjustment is the largest of the last 10 years - after September's was the lowest of the last 10 years - nothing to see here...

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:47 | 1844583 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

FU Birth death adjustment!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:49 | 1844596 IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

Come on Tyler, don't be a party pooper! 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:02 | 1844664 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Got to keep the illusion going into the holiday shopping season to get the debt slaves out spending.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:22 | 1847519 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Gotta get that U/E under 9% to re-elect our Young, fresh Communista in Chief! 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:02 | 1844665 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

When are the doomers going to admit that they have been DEAD wrong about the economy? These consistently positive non farm payroll numbers prove that economic strength is simply a function of aggregate demand. This number bodes well for the future and for the Obama 2012 campaign. The American people are smart - they know that lying libertarians just want the economy to do badly so that their doomer hypotheses come true. Try all you want but Americans will keep spending us into a new golden age. OBAMA/BERNANKE 2012!!!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:16 | 1844726 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

I may be wrong, but this blogspot doesn't feel like a good fit for you.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:19 | 1844741 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Yeah, smart enough to know that Barack Hussein Obama aka Barry Soetero aka Harrison J. Bounel aka Bari M. Shabazz belongs behind bars along with the rest of 'em.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:48 | 1844869 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

What a comedian you are MBD, bodes well indeed.  You know I give you credit for being sarcastic and trying to joke about the dire state of the economy but it is actually in poor taste to use the misery of others to score some laughs. 

With net new working age population increases per month in the 300,000 range, and given the participation rate of about 65%, the economy has to add about 200,000 new jobs each and every month just to accommodate new workers needing jobs, never mind the more than 14 million who have lost their jobs and need to be reemployed.  If you take away the invented fairytale new jobs created only in the spreadsheet of the birth/death model we actually lost jobs last month.  We are now at a point where the economy could add 300,000 real jobs per month and it would take at least 11.6 years to get back to full employment. 

If you think that bodes well for anyone then you are indeed the largest flaming asshole to ever spam these hallowed pages.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:08 | 1844957 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

but it is actually in poor taste to use the misery of others to score some laughs.

Why?  They won't wake up until they have lost everything anyway.

Take your laughs where you can, I say!

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:44 | 1845352 SilverDosed
SilverDosed's picture

All laughs come at the expense of others.

Stranger in a Strange Land'd

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:29 | 1844783 depression
depression's picture

Green Shoots you can believe in !

At this pace of "recovery" Obama should sail to victory with a headline number of 7.5%.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:31 | 1844788 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

LOL....... almost got me there, but the Bernanke gave you away......good try

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:34 | 1844805 dermus
dermus's picture

All downvoters need to have their sarcasm detectors recalibrated... Or... No, he has to be joking.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:34 | 1844809 g speed
g speed's picture

Love your stuff-- do you think you can clear up my thinking on the positives of a wartime economy and also how atomic power is the way to go-- If you can throw in some EURO and the UN please-- My mind is all confused and I'd like some help. Any fool should see that debt is the only way to make real progress and instill a sense of pride in ones country while insuring a better future with ever increasing wealth for all.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:53 | 1844885 Odin
Odin's picture

Who invited that ^ retard? (million dollar)

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:07 | 1844947 quacker
quacker's picture

Maybe sometimes your green shooting in the face of a dismal economy is kind of cutesy - but this is life and death for millions of people.

On behalf of the 10 million or so people not working that should be, go to fucking hell you piece of shit.

I'm an older guy who has not had a full time job with benefits in my field since June of 2009, just some temp contract work with no benefits. Which for me is problematic because of the costly medication I need for the severe diabetes and resulting complications - some months I've had to sell possessions to buy the meds.

So this disaster, absolute ongoing and ever worsining disaster, where even the "best" months under Obama have barely kept up with labor force growth, and the jobs are rebalancing away from high paying to low paying service jobs, this ongoing disaster is life and death for some people.

Do you hear me you piece of shit, death for some people.

Not about cutesy little trolling on internet sites, but their death.

So go to fucking hell you trolling piece of crap.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:27 | 1845048 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Quacker, the only thing I want to say really is I hope things turn up for you.  But, the number of people needing good full-time jobs is not 10 million but more like 16.5 million. 

As to green shoots, the only one I ever knew that shoots green was Kermit the frog and last time I checked he was unemployed too.  But it could be worse, when Kudlow uses the term Goldilocks economy then it is time to duck and cover.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:59 | 1845210 moonstears
moonstears's picture

Quacker is the voice that the nightly news avoids like plague. He knows, and states the common man's problem as few politicos, yet hopefully most of us, do. Best wishes to you, going forward, Sir!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:49 | 1845170 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

continuing amazing insights from MDB.

 

Once we get hyperinflation, the economy will be growing at quadruple % annual increases, and the government will be able to issue unlimited treasuries at 0%, because the economic growth will outpace the debt increase.

 

braaavo MDB.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:07 | 1844683 tarsubil
Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:54 | 1844605 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Green sharts!

This is how the CONfidence play goes down, in all its manifest gore.

BLS, you're too good at what you do, with your clever Birth-Death Adjustments, the art of Zen & Hedonics in Motor Vehicle Repairs, and other such silliness.

Oh, BLS & FOMC, you coy, coy devils, you.

 

I hereby declare shenanigans, bitchez!

 

And I call skulduggery (i.e. artifice, chicane, chicanery, gamesmanship, hanky-panky, jiggery-pokery, jugglery, legerdemain, trickery, subterfuge, wile) on The Bernank!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:58 | 1844641 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

I'd like to see someone perform buggery on the Bernank.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:01 | 1844653 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"I'd like to see someone perform buggery on the Bernank."

Barney Frank has first dibs!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:30 | 1845065 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Hey!  Just because a guy is gay does NOT mean he is that hard up.  Besides, he will have to wait till Berlusconi is done. 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:51 | 1844609 paarsons
paarsons's picture

Make no mistake.

We are totally fucked.

But don't wait for the collapse.

Wait for the next giant war.

We are fucked with a capital "F".

We'll be fighting for the bankers.

http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:06 | 1844681 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hey come on now! Those kids born today will make perfectly good slaves for the banksters in a few years, party on!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:18 | 1844731 oleander garch
oleander garch's picture

The birth death adjustment is a professionally devised formula to seek to determine the number of jobs produced in America's private sector which cannot be captured through more conventional means.  It simply seeks to determine how many smaller businesses are created or closed in a given time span and what that equates to in terms of jobs.

People should look at this as an expression not of statistical rigging but of the rampant nature of American entrepeneurial exceptionalism.  What this number is telling us is that Americans are forming far more businesses and closing fewer of them than ever before in history!

Why, just today, on my way to work in NYC, I saw six proud, exceptional entrepeneurs illustrative of this much derided figure hard at work.  Three were selling used books.  One was selling household goods.  Two were selling fruit.  American exceptionalism!        

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:37 | 1844824 depression
depression's picture

Thank you for the clarification, puts this month's unemployment report into historic perspective. Did they have a birth death model back in the last depression ?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:08 | 1844953 SeanJKerrigan
SeanJKerrigan's picture

Didn't Calculated Risk disprove that this is the way the Birth/Death adjustement model works?

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/employment-comment-on-birthdeath-model.html

I know they don't exactly do a good job of explaining what the offset is (if there is any) but if someone could explain this to me, I'd appreciate it.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:37 | 1845101 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

I used to work for the BLS and helped create the B/D model, and I also saw 6 people starting on the road to their own capitalist dream, 4 were washing widshields for "donations," three were panhandling coins, I mean selling "god bless you's" at street corners, 6 were busking in front of Fred Meyer, 12 were poaching trout in the lake next to the mercury factory, and at least 24 were making going out of business signs for the rest.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:29 | 1844780 SirIssacNewton
SirIssacNewton's picture

Carry the one..... subtract the three..... divide it all by wishes and lolipops and you get = Unemployment Claims Number is just okey dokey. 

Then Maria starts singing....

"Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens
Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens
Brown paper packages tied up with strings
These are a few of my unemployment things"

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:48 | 1844590 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Could it have been otherwise?

What a joke...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:49 | 1844599 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Well, now that you ask, it could have been other wise. 

But it looks like it's really the same fool.

In dis-guise. If everyone got a job as a statistician, then perhaps, statistically, all would be well, eh?

Liesman, Damn Liesman etc...

ORI

war-memes-me-iran-israel-uk-us-social-engineering-planted-stories/

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:49 | 1844594 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

Birth/Death Adjustment (definition): the figure that when added or subtracted to BLS initial number equals Goldman's prediction.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:51 | 1844607 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Now that was something else. Nice.

ORI

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:50 | 1844600 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Wait a minute, now lets be fair. My company fired 6 people in the last two weeks and I saw through Facebook that one was starting her own PR firm and another was going to start selling her artwork. So it may be possible that new busineses are spouting!  </sarc>

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:54 | 1844618 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Put your money in local efforts, don't give it Wall Street.

Now Elvis on velvet is probably NOT the place to start.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:56 | 1844623 TheWord
TheWord's picture

Get with the program.  Your firm might have fired 6 people, but they employed 8 statistical drive-through cashiers.  I'm surprised you didn't notice them.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:40 | 1844833 depression
depression's picture

In Birth-Death terms, those 6 people that were fired now represent the birth of 6 new businesses.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:50 | 1844601 HD
HD's picture

I guess the OWS will be packing up and heading home on all this good news.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:11 | 1844699 smithcreek
smithcreek's picture

I hope not, they counted the organizers (Professional & Business Services), cooks (Leisure & Hospitality), anyone that held up a sign (Education & Health Services), anyone that picked up some trash (Trade, Transportation, & Utilities) and anyone that did that "human PA system" thing (Other Services)  in the birth/death model.  Numbers would have been much worse without them.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:43 | 1844850 depression
depression's picture

And here I thought the whole OWS thing was part of the entertainment industry.

So just to clarify, in birth death terms: each person at the protest is counted as the creation of a separate small business, or is the entire OWS counted as just one business ?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:50 | 1844603 Bodhi
Bodhi's picture

I seem to notice more retail establishments closing than opening.   Lot's of giant empty strip malls 'round here.  

 

Much more 'death' than 'birth'.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:57 | 1844633 Hansel
Hansel's picture

I know of a couple companies that are about to fold.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:02 | 1844662 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I believe that it was reported here (ZH) last week that mall vacancies are at all time highs.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:12 | 1844693 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Bodhi:

I seem to notice more retail establishments closing than opening.   Lot's of giant empty strip malls 'round here.  

 

Much more 'death' than 'birth'.

 

----

"It is only by death, that the Phoenix of growth rises from the ashes, and the beautiful seed of destructive capitalism (or in the case under my stewardship, the gifting of taxpayer monies to the shape shifters on Wall Street via the Cronyistic Kleptocracy, using Timmmay to run money in plain brown paper bags like the foolish errand boy that he is) can blossom."

--The Ben S. Bernank; from his upcoming book, 'Dear God, I Hope You Get This Letter; Confessions of An Economic Hyena'

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:50 | 1844604 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

And to think I used to follow this number closely.

Oh me of so little faith.

Faith in this government?  No way ... no how.

The only confidence I have now is that the charade will continue until it doesn't.  And when it doesn't the 1%'ers will be shocked.  Shocked I tell you.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:53 | 1844615 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Born even on paper to be indebted slaves... Nice!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:54 | 1844619 Misery Index
Misery Index's picture

Reminds me of a quote

 

"If you torture numbers long enough they will confess anything."

 

how fitting.

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:55 | 1844621 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Clearly there are a lot of market participants that buy into this.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:58 | 1844638 CH1
CH1's picture

Cue Rod Stewart...

     still I look, to find a reason, to believe...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:57 | 1844636 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

I put my congressman hat: Bernanke did a fantastic job.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:57 | 1844637 jonan
jonan's picture

off topic, is groupon a good short?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:00 | 1844651 CH1
CH1's picture

If this was a real market I'd say yes. But I have no inside info. So, my view is useless in this worked market.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:09 | 1844674 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Not at 20 bucks (yet).  Let the momos run it up real nice and then short

IMO long term this thing is a POS there are no barriers to competition and they charge the underlying retailer/service provider too much (for a service anyone can provide).  So yes, once the pump monkeys fatten it up.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:58 | 1844639 vipmoneymachine
vipmoneymachine's picture

How does this birth/death adjustment help average Americans ? Is it just to help HFT or Wallstreet ?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:02 | 1844658 CH1
CH1's picture

It helps politicians. Only.

As one of them used to call such BS - boob bait for the Bubbas.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:24 | 1844766 RSloane
RSloane's picture

+1

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:59 | 1844645 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

OT: The quote of the week!

*EVERY U.S. CITIZEN A `DEBT MAN WALKING,' PIMCO'S GROSS SAYS

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:00 | 1844652 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Did he include himself?

 

Thought so...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:05 | 1844671 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Of course not, he was referring to the mortals only.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:01 | 1844656 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Made my morning..I'm depressed

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:30 | 1844668 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Mark Zandi; Chief Unicorn wrangler.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:04 | 1844669 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"530K Jobs Created In 2011 "Statistically""

Now, is that "created" or would it be more proper to say "saved or created"?

Isn't it only normal to expect " a slight slowdown in job growth" after our second "summer of recovery"?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:11 | 1844700 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

NOW ,,,,, NOW you have gone TOO far.

MDB , smite this un-american pos!

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:04 | 1844670 Lord Maximus
Lord Maximus's picture

Wait another 6 months when Obama really startes to have fun with the numbers and busts into the low 8% for his re-election blitz

Electoral College Shoots!!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:06 | 1844676 tim73
tim73's picture

BLS is not doing this right. Argentinian government fined last April a bunch of stupid economists who dared to calculate alternative inflation rates. Supermarket prices LIE, believe your government numbers! The fine was 125000 US dollars per economist or company. That ought to shut them up.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:32 | 1844798 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

if we did that in the US would could probably pay the deficit for a few years. problem solved!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:06 | 1844680 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Well, looking at the non-seasonally adjusted numbers for October 2011, 485,000 people found employment ,the largest jump since April, which is always a good month for employment. A cool 418,000 people also fell off of the unemployment rolls.

And, the 'Not in labor force' number only jumped by 132,000 last month, suggesting that there were *real* gains made in employment.

On the other hand, the 'Participation rate' fell a tenth of a percent, to 64.1%. Historically, this number peaks in July and bottoms in Jan/Feb. The bad news for our society, is that this number is already significantly below last year's October reading of 64.4%. This data point correlates with the 'NILF' data point above, which has now risen by 1.3 million people in the past 12 months, to stand at 86.181 million. If historical trends hold true, we should be over 87 million in December, which would be another new record.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:12 | 1844705 TooRichtoCare
TooRichtoCare's picture

doesn't it kinda make sense though that, after 3 or 4 years worth of massive layoffs from the big multi-national corporations and banks etc, that more and more people would choose to start up their own firms...whether it be a consultancy or a totally new firm....and that's what the birth/death model is so slow in picking up initially but is now finally starting to catch up with?  

You can't always poo poo the birth death model as if it has absolutely zero merit whatsoever. Is there any scenario where you would believe that small firms are being created but don't show up in the establishment surveys?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:14 | 1844718 Kina
Kina's picture

The games that TPTB are playing everywhere for so long will in the end kill them as when they really need the people to believe and trust them, they wont. They will be seen as part of the resident evil.

They will reap what they sow.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:24 | 1844764 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

what a charade!

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:29 | 1844781 youngman
youngman's picture

I like to have sex much more in January...than February..

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:30 | 1844787 Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

That's because they are PAYING the OWS protestors.  If those morons were not getting paid, they surely wouldn't be sleeping in tents, cold and rain.  However it is NOT long term employment.  Remember the other protest in Wisconsin, we added jobs then but quickly lost them again.  LOOK at the numbers!!!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:35 | 1844796 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Obama's 2012 campaign slogan:

 

"I saved and/or created 512,000 jobs, statistically speaking, according the Bureau of Labor & Statistics,from January through October of 2011 - remember?...granted, that's based on the birth-death model, the fact that so many gave up looking for work, that those who were on unemployment were on for so long that they were no longer counted in the unemployment statistics when their benefits ran out, or that many who did find jobs found them at McDonald's at 1/8th their former salary and benefits, but you know...at a time when only 63% of working age Americans bother to participate in the labor market, and the real unemployment rate is close to 20%, and most likely rising again. and an unfortunate number of Americans, as in 1 in 4, rely on the government for their daily sustenance, that's progress....or something or other."

 

It's not catchy, but it just might work.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:38 | 1844829 TruthHunter
TruthHunter's picture

Hmmm...  I've gotten used to them not counting the long term unemployed, discourage workers

as "not in the labor force".

Are they getting this "Birth Death Adjustment" by not counting them among the living?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:39 | 1844831 adr
adr's picture

hmmmmm an economy based on minimum wage service jobs supplying income for government, healthcare, and finance workers. How can that not work?

Millions of jobs are always added during the holiday season. They all go away in January. Of course that fact is adjusted out.

There is a minimum wage job out there for every unemployed person if they want it. Problem is that 99 weeks of unemployment pays more and has better benefits. After that going on welfare gives you a higher standard of living than 20 hours a week at Home Depot.

Of course you could always take a job that pays $25k that used to pay $50k but now has the added responsibily of 10 other $50k jobs. Oh and you need a PHD and already know every system the company uses inside and out with no training. If you ask a question during the interview, you won't be hired.  In fact you actually need to know more than the CEO and be more qualified than him, but you still only get $25k.

I am still seeing postings for the same job after a year. There are no candidates that can fill the positions because the comapanies have insane expectations. I applied for a position at a design company and was asked if I was married and had a family. I said yes and that I had an 18 month old son. I was actually told that was unfortunate because they were looking for a candidate who wouldn't have any attachement outside the company. He saw my address and knew it was about 30 miles away. He asked if I would be willing to relocate closer to the company, as in within 5 miles away. He said we really need someone who can be available at a moments notice.

I'm not making this up. The pay was going to be $15k less than my current job. When I found that out I told the guy, "Well it looks lik I am not the best fit for your comapny because it looks like you want a slave. I'm not realy interested in living just to work for your company."

One year later the position is still open on the job boards.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:52 | 1844881 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

<==Birth/Death excellent economic modelling tool

  <== Birth/Death Political Hopium

It would be interesting to compare the above chart to previous administrations, say, the last 30 or 40 years (or however long the Birth/Death model has been used).  I wonder if the January Rollback is getting bigger and bigger percentage-wise. 

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:58 | 1844907 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

My wife lost her job this week.  (They found it in India)

She made a puppet for our granddaughter.  She paid us with giggles.

 

So I guess that will show as a net 0 job change for the November number.

One real job lost.  One birth / death add.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:30 | 1845296 mendigo
mendigo's picture

why show only the adjusted numbers?

would like to see the raw and adjusted numbers overlaid

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 10:55 | 1850366 mendolover
mendolover's picture

You want proof that it is 'too late'?  BO got elected.

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