NFP Less +103K Birth Death Adjustment = -23K; 530K Jobs Created In 2011 "Statistically"

Tyler Durden's picture

And back to the old gimmicks: the Birth Death adjustment has now "added" 530 jobs in 2011, or 42% of the total 1,256K jobs added in 2011, and the October number of 102K is 31K greater than a year earlier. Truly business formation in the current recession is soaring...

Furthermore, the October Birth-Ddeath adjustment is the largest of the last 10 years - after September's was the lowest of the last 10 years - nothing to see here...

Chart: Bloomberg

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GolfHatesMe's picture

FU Birth death adjustment!

IBelieveInMagic's picture

Come on Tyler, don't be a party pooper! 

dwdollar's picture

Got to keep the illusion going into the holiday shopping season to get the debt slaves out spending.

Chuck Walla's picture

Gotta get that U/E under 9% to re-elect our Young, fresh Communista in Chief! 

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

When are the doomers going to admit that they have been DEAD wrong about the economy? These consistently positive non farm payroll numbers prove that economic strength is simply a function of aggregate demand. This number bodes well for the future and for the Obama 2012 campaign. The American people are smart - they know that lying libertarians just want the economy to do badly so that their doomer hypotheses come true. Try all you want but Americans will keep spending us into a new golden age. OBAMA/BERNANKE 2012!!!

prodigious_idea's picture

I may be wrong, but this blogspot doesn't feel like a good fit for you.

TeamDepends's picture

Yeah, smart enough to know that Barack Hussein Obama aka Barry Soetero aka Harrison J. Bounel aka Bari M. Shabazz belongs behind bars along with the rest of 'em.

boiltherich's picture

What a comedian you are MBD, bodes well indeed.  You know I give you credit for being sarcastic and trying to joke about the dire state of the economy but it is actually in poor taste to use the misery of others to score some laughs. 

With net new working age population increases per month in the 300,000 range, and given the participation rate of about 65%, the economy has to add about 200,000 new jobs each and every month just to accommodate new workers needing jobs, never mind the more than 14 million who have lost their jobs and need to be reemployed.  If you take away the invented fairytale new jobs created only in the spreadsheet of the birth/death model we actually lost jobs last month.  We are now at a point where the economy could add 300,000 real jobs per month and it would take at least 11.6 years to get back to full employment. 

If you think that bodes well for anyone then you are indeed the largest flaming asshole to ever spam these hallowed pages.

LowProfile's picture

but it is actually in poor taste to use the misery of others to score some laughs.

Why?  They won't wake up until they have lost everything anyway.

Take your laughs where you can, I say!


SilverDosed's picture

All laughs come at the expense of others.

Stranger in a Strange Land'd

depression's picture

Green Shoots you can believe in !

At this pace of "recovery" Obama should sail to victory with a headline number of 7.5%.

Seasmoke's picture

LOL....... almost got me there, but the Bernanke gave you away......good try

dermus's picture

All downvoters need to have their sarcasm detectors recalibrated... Or... No, he has to be joking.

g speed's picture

Love your stuff-- do you think you can clear up my thinking on the positives of a wartime economy and also how atomic power is the way to go-- If you can throw in some EURO and the UN please-- My mind is all confused and I'd like some help. Any fool should see that debt is the only way to make real progress and instill a sense of pride in ones country while insuring a better future with ever increasing wealth for all.

Odin's picture

Who invited that ^ retard? (million dollar)

quacker's picture

Maybe sometimes your green shooting in the face of a dismal economy is kind of cutesy - but this is life and death for millions of people.

On behalf of the 10 million or so people not working that should be, go to fucking hell you piece of shit.

I'm an older guy who has not had a full time job with benefits in my field since June of 2009, just some temp contract work with no benefits. Which for me is problematic because of the costly medication I need for the severe diabetes and resulting complications - some months I've had to sell possessions to buy the meds.

So this disaster, absolute ongoing and ever worsining disaster, where even the "best" months under Obama have barely kept up with labor force growth, and the jobs are rebalancing away from high paying to low paying service jobs, this ongoing disaster is life and death for some people.

Do you hear me you piece of shit, death for some people.

Not about cutesy little trolling on internet sites, but their death.

So go to fucking hell you trolling piece of crap.

boiltherich's picture

Quacker, the only thing I want to say really is I hope things turn up for you.  But, the number of people needing good full-time jobs is not 10 million but more like 16.5 million. 

As to green shoots, the only one I ever knew that shoots green was Kermit the frog and last time I checked he was unemployed too.  But it could be worse, when Kudlow uses the term Goldilocks economy then it is time to duck and cover.

moonstears's picture

Quacker is the voice that the nightly news avoids like plague. He knows, and states the common man's problem as few politicos, yet hopefully most of us, do. Best wishes to you, going forward, Sir!

Libertarian777's picture

continuing amazing insights from MDB.


Once we get hyperinflation, the economy will be growing at quadruple % annual increases, and the government will be able to issue unlimited treasuries at 0%, because the economic growth will outpace the debt increase.


braaavo MDB.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Green sharts!

This is how the CONfidence play goes down, in all its manifest gore.

BLS, you're too good at what you do, with your clever Birth-Death Adjustments, the art of Zen & Hedonics in Motor Vehicle Repairs, and other such silliness.

Oh, BLS & FOMC, you coy, coy devils, you.


I hereby declare shenanigans, bitchez!


And I call skulduggery (i.e. artifice, chicane, chicanery, gamesmanship, hanky-panky, jiggery-pokery, jugglery, legerdemain, trickery, subterfuge, wile) on The Bernank!

Absinthe Minded's picture

I'd like to see someone perform buggery on the Bernank.

Iam_Silverman's picture

"I'd like to see someone perform buggery on the Bernank."

Barney Frank has first dibs!

boiltherich's picture

Hey!  Just because a guy is gay does NOT mean he is that hard up.  Besides, he will have to wait till Berlusconi is done. 

paarsons's picture

Make no mistake.

We are totally fucked.

But don't wait for the collapse.

Wait for the next giant war.

We are fucked with a capital "F".

We'll be fighting for the bankers.

SheepDog-One's picture

Hey come on now! Those kids born today will make perfectly good slaves for the banksters in a few years, party on!

oleander garch's picture

The birth death adjustment is a professionally devised formula to seek to determine the number of jobs produced in America's private sector which cannot be captured through more conventional means.  It simply seeks to determine how many smaller businesses are created or closed in a given time span and what that equates to in terms of jobs.

People should look at this as an expression not of statistical rigging but of the rampant nature of American entrepeneurial exceptionalism.  What this number is telling us is that Americans are forming far more businesses and closing fewer of them than ever before in history!

Why, just today, on my way to work in NYC, I saw six proud, exceptional entrepeneurs illustrative of this much derided figure hard at work.  Three were selling used books.  One was selling household goods.  Two were selling fruit.  American exceptionalism!        

depression's picture

Thank you for the clarification, puts this month's unemployment report into historic perspective. Did they have a birth death model back in the last depression ?

SeanJKerrigan's picture

Didn't Calculated Risk disprove that this is the way the Birth/Death adjustement model works?

I know they don't exactly do a good job of explaining what the offset is (if there is any) but if someone could explain this to me, I'd appreciate it.

boiltherich's picture

I used to work for the BLS and helped create the B/D model, and I also saw 6 people starting on the road to their own capitalist dream, 4 were washing widshields for "donations," three were panhandling coins, I mean selling "god bless you's" at street corners, 6 were busking in front of Fred Meyer, 12 were poaching trout in the lake next to the mercury factory, and at least 24 were making going out of business signs for the rest.

SirIssacNewton's picture

Carry the one..... subtract the three..... divide it all by wishes and lolipops and you get = Unemployment Claims Number is just okey dokey. 

Then Maria starts singing....

"Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens
Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens
Brown paper packages tied up with strings
These are a few of my unemployment things"

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Could it have been otherwise?

What a joke...

Oh regional Indian's picture

Well, now that you ask, it could have been other wise. 

But it looks like it's really the same fool.

In dis-guise. If everyone got a job as a statistician, then perhaps, statistically, all would be well, eh?

Liesman, Damn Liesman etc...



Oh regional Indian's picture

Now that was something else. Nice.


Archimedes's picture

Wait a minute, now lets be fair. My company fired 6 people in the last two weeks and I saw through Facebook that one was starting her own PR firm and another was going to start selling her artwork. So it may be possible that new busineses are spouting!  </sarc>

ArkansasAngie's picture

Put your money in local efforts, don't give it Wall Street.

Now Elvis on velvet is probably NOT the place to start.

TheWord's picture

Get with the program.  Your firm might have fired 6 people, but they employed 8 statistical drive-through cashiers.  I'm surprised you didn't notice them.

depression's picture

In Birth-Death terms, those 6 people that were fired now represent the birth of 6 new businesses.

HD's picture

I guess the OWS will be packing up and heading home on all this good news.

smithcreek's picture

I hope not, they counted the organizers (Professional & Business Services), cooks (Leisure & Hospitality), anyone that held up a sign (Education & Health Services), anyone that picked up some trash (Trade, Transportation, & Utilities) and anyone that did that "human PA system" thing (Other Services)  in the birth/death model.  Numbers would have been much worse without them.

depression's picture

And here I thought the whole OWS thing was part of the entertainment industry.

So just to clarify, in birth death terms: each person at the protest is counted as the creation of a separate small business, or is the entire OWS counted as just one business ?

Bodhi's picture

I seem to notice more retail establishments closing than opening.   Lot's of giant empty strip malls 'round here.  


Much more 'death' than 'birth'.

Hansel's picture

I know of a couple companies that are about to fold.

Village Smithy's picture

I believe that it was reported here (ZH) last week that mall vacancies are at all time highs.

TruthInSunshine's picture


I seem to notice more retail establishments closing than opening.   Lot's of giant empty strip malls 'round here.  


Much more 'death' than 'birth'.



"It is only by death, that the Phoenix of growth rises from the ashes, and the beautiful seed of destructive capitalism (or in the case under my stewardship, the gifting of taxpayer monies to the shape shifters on Wall Street via the Cronyistic Kleptocracy, using Timmmay to run money in plain brown paper bags like the foolish errand boy that he is) can blossom."

--The Ben S. Bernank; from his upcoming book, 'Dear God, I Hope You Get This Letter; Confessions of An Economic Hyena'

ArkansasAngie's picture

And to think I used to follow this number closely.

Oh me of so little faith.

Faith in this government?  No way ... no how.

The only confidence I have now is that the charade will continue until it doesn't.  And when it doesn't the 1%'ers will be shocked.  Shocked I tell you.

ziggy59's picture

Born even on paper to be indebted slaves... Nice!

Misery Index's picture

Reminds me of a quote


"If you torture numbers long enough they will confess anything."


how fitting.


Dr. Engali's picture

Clearly there are a lot of market participants that buy into this.

CH1's picture

Cue Rod Stewart...

     still I look, to find a reason, to believe...