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NFP Payrolls At 200K, Expected At 155K; Unemployment Rate Drops To 8.5%, Labor Force Participation At Lowest Since 1984
The nonfarm payroll number prints at 200K on expectations of 155K. The Unemployment rate comes at 8.5% - lowest since February 2009, and down from an upward revised 8.7%. U-6 15.2% down from 15.6% in November. Average hourly earnings rose at 0.2%, in line with expectations, previous revised to -0.1% from unchanged. Private payrolls +212L vs Expectations of 178K. Manufacturing payrolls rose 23K vs Expectations of 155K. Yet the unemployment rate trickery still continues, with labor force participation (prior revised), now at a 27 year low of 64%, and the labor force itself declined by 50K from 153,937 to 153,887. In fact, persons not in the labor force have increased by 7.5 million since January 2007! Bottom line - dropping out of labor statistics is the new killing it.
Labor Force Participation Rate:
Persons not in the labor force: an increase of 7.5 million since January 2007:
Persons who want a job now:
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Everything is fine at last
The job market is still weak, no matter how you want to slice it. It tough to get numbers around the holiday season because always a boost in temp jobs...
We will see how it plays out a few months into the year. We dropped to 8.5% , Really seriously...
Quick reference for Layoffs/Closing
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
The rate was "expected" to rise
But "dropped" via BLS lies
The manipulation
To beat expectation
Is the game until tyranny dies
Outstanding as usual, although for the last line, maybe "is the game behind tyranny's rise" would have been more fitting.
Prefer the original; more motivational, if you get my drift.
Thanks for the kudos Al. Your verse is also very fitting, but I never use the same rhyming word twice in a limerick (see "rise")
Ah, I missed that. I guess that's why your the king!
Hurray it's over! Recovery at last... not.
It's TRICKY to rock a rhyme that's right on time...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-O5IHVhWj0&ob=av3e
Tricky, tricky, tricky.
In other news 99 weeks ago today was 2/12/2010.
Thank Goodness for those 99 weekers that dropped of the back end of the BLS number because their UI benefits have permanently expired. We are now in the peak of that statistical effect on the headline U-3 number, it should persist for another 4-6 months.
I have been predicting 8% Unemployment when Obama is elected for his second term, but at this rapidly increasing rate of descent we could easily be in the mid 7's by November !
Green shoots! (remember that one)
Its was Mr. Green,
on the Factory Floor.
with the lead pipe.
Decoupled from roots.
Puttin ghosts to work, instead of QE'ing. Well of course theyre still paddling free money under the surface like mad, but no free overt gifts to stocks. With centrally planned total fascism like this, who needs QE?
In particular when households make spending decisions assuming income to increase, or remain stable, for the years to come. When households take on credit based on this assumption, life events can easily change indebtedness into over indebtedness. Thanks a lot.
Regards,
condos downtown Toronto
Mr. Lahey: Who is this park, or even in the whole world, doesn't have problems? Who doesn't have a drink too many times once in a while and maybe even winds up passed out in their own driveway, pissing themselves? Who doesn't drink too much sometimes or who doesn't have a puff from time to time? And who doesn't have problems with the people they love? This is our home. This is our community. I am Jim Lahey, and *I am your trailer park supervisor!*
Ricky : Fuck off Lahey . You're not a real cop .
It's a Miracle!
In addition to these three comprehensive theories of unemployment, there are a few categorizations of unemployment that are used to more precisely model the effects of unemployment within the economic system. Thanks.
Regards,
reverse cell phone lookup
bot going crazy
It's because they are paying the Occupy movement with our TAX dollars...........
Mr. Lahey: Birds of a shitfeather flock together, Randy.
unbelievable
as in PURE BULLSHIT #'s.
unbelievable
fixt
celebrate, good times come on!
it's a celebration! (?)
Party like its 99'.
... like is 84`
fixed
1784
refixt
The BLS us using the CAREER BUILDER monkeys
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRrMu7B1L2I
Want a new job?
Face.Desk.
Sell the news as this was holiday jobs.
Jobs everywhere I look.
The minestry of truth has spoken, now get back on those wheels and run bitches. If you bought the rumor, it is now time to sell the news. That last week in January could be ugly.
Ah life is good. I'm sure the birth death model is a modest number.
You don't need to know or want to know what's in the sausage.
Upton Sinclair approves this message.
Is it just me, or is about 105% of the data coming out 'much better than expected'?
That seems odd to me.
When 'expectations' are three inches from the floor. MOPE at its finest.
Decoupling!
Gah!! They're rehypothecating labor now!
That's 105% of data on expectations of 98% up from a revised 55% the prior week with the long term data availability by definition being 100% unadjusted for seasonal and associated imaginary factors, net of benchmark and fictional revisions derived from the redacted article on data manipulation of unreliable non-facts as supported in Wikipedia, the world's largest source of totally manufactured fact also known as propaganda.
Source: Ministry of Truth
As I mentionned last month....
Obama WILL have this number at 8% or lower for his re-election bid.
So get used to this.
Yes, buy the rumor and ...
May be 8%, yet Obama still holds the all-time low approval number.
Agree 100% Lord Maximus.
I think we may be looking at a U-3 number of 7.4% on election day.
The quicker they can cut UI benefits to these chronically unemployed (and get them out of the BLS number ) the better for Obama's re-election prospects.
I assume the BLS data is vetted by David Plouffe prior to release. The important thing now is to clear the path for Obama's second term. A year from now we should be back at 6% full employment and everyone can calm down. Crisis solved.
Yes he will... there are two ways to improve the unemployment percentage:
01.) People find jobs - by not using their benefits the percentage decreases... yay!
02.) Peopl can't find jobs and their benefits run out - by not using their benefits (because they are gone) the percentage decreases... YAY!
Obviously the Obama administration has chosen strategy #2.
Either way the propaganda based media will cheer the lower percentage number.
Heads he wins, tails we lose.
What we need is an EMPLOYMENT number... not some manipulated, statistical, seasonaly adjusted unemployment number.
Swell. OK, since the UE rate is (suppressing gag reflex) "lowest since February 2009" can we now, finally, stop spending upwards of 10% of US GDP in deficit? Pretty please?
all these retail jobs,,,,until they turn into manufacturing jobs no recovery
Someone has to sell all that Chinese shit!
Randy: I can't get stoned, Ricky.
Ricky: What do you mean? It's shitty work. Everybody does that, all right? Carpenters, electricians, dishwashers, floor cleaners, lawyers, doctors, fuckin' politicians, CBC employees, principals, people who paint the lines on the fuckin' roads, get stoned, it'll be fun, get to work! Oh, and this is the most important, go down to the Shit-Mart. I need a bag of chicken chips. If they don't have chicken, get me dill pickle. And I want a chocolate milk.
More like they need extra staff to handle all the RETURN items...
Walmart near me posted a sign on the doors,
"No longer accepting Christmas returns."
This was a week after Christmas.
Official government statistic, comrades !
Citizen Obama will lead Amerika Region and Global Collective to great era of prosperity.
Income is dropping, employment statistics 'adjusted' until useless. Consider this chart.
Total income/total population. Year over Year. Unadjusted $, Adjusted to current BLS inflation, and adjusted as if we still used the 1980 inflation calculation.
http://i1140.photobucket.com/albums/n579/bearasaur/PMStatsr3_13135_image...
It is going to take a lot for a long time to turn this around.
Fascism doesnt turn around by itself, or too easily at all.
Correct, it is going to take a lot, and it has not even started yet. Tolerably widespread awareness of the problem would be a good place to begin.
Edit: Good luck with that!
http://www.infowars.com/plundering-the-american-dream-college-students-demonstrate-the-idiocy-of-our-education-system/
Great find, same as it ever was. When the current rules don't fit your propaganda, change the rules and the way things are calculated. New world order same old lies.
Bingo. Aggregate income is the name of the game and it's coyote ugly up in the hizzy.
Labor force is contracting - people falling off the rolls. More McJobs with no benefits on the way.
More under-employed, more contractors (gotta make sure they can't organize now), and what few jobs are being created are not distributed evenly and are not helping the specific sectors like construction that have taken the hardest post-bubble hit.
I have never felt more like a spoiled bitch in my entire life than I have with two steady incomes and company-paid healthcare.
Yep, no QE.
Labor Force participation still sucks 64%.
Drop in unemployment driven mainly by rise in employment (176k), with slight drop in labor force (50k) contributing as well.
Governement job losses were half of what they have been, expect that number to continue to go lower as election nears. Obama wants unemployment below 8% and doesn`t care how he gets there.
so what's the 36 in lizzy36 mean hot stuff?
7.4% is my prediction for election day.
A year from now we will be enjoying full employment with a 6% rate.
David Plouffe is a genius.
Do you mean "Fool Employment"
silver will get hit if they manage to raise yields on the long end if the current inverse correlation continues.
EDIT: staring at TLT vs. TNX and confused myself. Meant to say if yields fall silver will get hit.
slv vs. tlt :
http://fiatflaws.blogspot.com/2012/01/slv-seems-to-be-trading-inverse-to...
The Monster employment index fell 7 points in Dec to 140. The report, citing global econ uncertainties, says hiring plans remain cautious.
Obama wins going away. Invest accordingly.
We have many miles to travel before the election. There is a world of shit just about ready to hit the fan. Obama is done.
Obama is done when the MSM and George Soros say he is done. Odd's of that ever happening = 0
The Cars said it the best:
Let the good times roll
Let them knock you around
Let the good times roll
Let them make you a clown
That might make a good background tune for the ReElect Barry commercials coming soon.
*sigh*..another great rock and roll song sold out to The Man...
We must llay it down, admit, confess and surrender: "everything is back to normal". LET'S GO TO WORK
talk about manic depressive schizo. weeks of data that are terrible and worse than expected, then weeks of data that shows signs of twitching to life and are better than CE. it's the schizo economy. learn it, love it, live it,....bitchez.
Soon the booms and busts will come within the same day, even the same hour. This is an unsustainable system for sure...chaos is ruling.
Red light....green light...red light
Election year data
EE pushing sheeple into cyclicals and trying to make Ogolfer look good for re-election. EE wants some more Ogolfer crack in 2013-2016. Thionk of it: If Paul wins, the crack dealer (the Fed) will be arrested and thrown behind bars.
Trying, maybe, but not working...Obamas record low approval rating drops another point.
Fine with me, excute all the crack dealers along with every federal reserve board member. Would solve many problems.
total bs...nov revised down to 100k..the grand plan is working...no bad number before the elections:::)))
two hunddred thousand jobs is fuck all in an american context, how can that take the unemployment rate down even slightly let alone by .2%
Yet they revise last months rate back up to 8.7%. ? Thats ok im sure we'll be ripping thanks to HFT algo's. Also Im glad were up so much when France and Italian yields are continuing to climb and the Euro continues to get smashed to new lows! Last time Euro was here and the Italian yields were over 7% the market was in panic mode. But now all is good and were ripping up? I don't get it
now the question again is: who knew it before release?
unless the stock pumping we observe since last night was based on solid hope and conviction, candle burning and praying, Nostradamus predictions, whatever
The revision to the prior release is kind of makes me think this release is ostentatious.
Prior Release: 120k Prior Revised: 100k
Prior UE rate: 8.6% Prior Revised: 8.7%
I think the revision to todays number will be ~160k
Uh oh, look at the EUR/USD
Yep, 1.274.
No QE3?
Yes QE3, need the dollar higher to initate QE3. Now if only that pesky oil number would drop.
Stay tuned kids... " About that employment number " at 3pm, followed by your local weather
I'll believe it when the debt clock starts moving in the opposite direction and we get the nation off gov't handouts. I'll be farting dust by then.
Well, with the Fed's "priority mandate" for job creation, there goes any chance for QE3. After all, this is clear recovery.
Wait, scratch that, I forgot the Fed to bank relationship has nothing to do with any of this.
This is banana republic style. "These are the numbers. They are correct. Got a problem with that?"
Terrible numbers.
NSA participation rate declines again
NSA size of labor force declines again
NSA employment to population ratio declines again.
NSA Not In Labor Force increases by 455,000!
That is another +400,000 gone from the labor force…almost 900,000 in 2 months.
The denominator keeps getting smaller.
must be all those baby boomers retireing
That's the new meme, Zandi and Liesman took each other's cocks out of their respective mouths long enough to highlight it.
Why is it that no major public figure calls bullshit on these numbers?
I turned on Bloomberg this morning and all I'm hearing is that the US will soon be at 5.5% unemployment which is about the desired long term rate.
The economy is growing faster than bamboo! It must be true Shirley?
U-3 is on auto-pilot: - 0.2% per month until 5.4% is reached.
The EUR loves this release..lol
we got jobs! blow jobs, hand jobs, odd jobs, and snow jobs
You forgot ZJ's.
Lies, damned lies, and then statistics. I seriously don't know why the markets take stats from the government at face value. As has been highlighted here at ZH so many times, just change the definitions to your liking and then report.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
What market? The 'markets' are now just FED controlled indicators same as these phony 'data' numbers, its all irrelevant.
Dollar is surging.
The "Green Shoots" Economy is back!!!
dollar up
gold consolidating
fed swapping
eu fucked
sums it up
oh yea- found a job mopping up liquidity...
Let's observe Uncle Gorilla in action:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihUGT7MdDB4&feature=player_detailpage
The S & P 500 is breaking out to new annual highs in many foreign currencies.
If you are a foreigner, its a huge bull market in the USA.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$spx:FXE,$spx:FXY,$spx:FXC,$spx:FXS,$spx:FXA,$spx:FXM,$spx:FXB,$spx:FXF|D
so if Japan, England and the entirety of the Continent of Europe experience massive price declines as they "sunset" then DOW 12,000 doesn't sound too bad, does it?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltc5EsuyBh4&feature=player_detailpage
Well according to the central planners, if you aint a large bank then you really don't count.
Man, volatility is dead. This day was once very much anticipated. Not anymore......
Obama is targeting a low labor force participation as his strategy to lower unemployment. He gets the dual benefit of a lower rate and the fact those people out of the labor force (but not retired) vote overwhelmingly demoncat.
David Plouffe is a genius !
Barry has a real easy job, make life miserable for the voters and they will come running to him for safety. No wonder he takes so many vacations, as easy jobs are very boring, he really needs those change of seneries.
IF one were to do the math, unemployment should be 25% at the 2007 participation rate on the U-3. Wow, that hope and change stuff is really kick ass! //sarcasm off//
You see little sheep, everything is just fine. That vice your balls are in is just in your little mind.
once WW3 commences, 6M new jobs will be created! momma, close the door, i feel a draft!
i have to ask, im sorry but i need to know
how thick is your average american? i mean are they going to believe this bull when they see their neighboors still havent got jobs? maybe i should just ask how stupid does the elite believe the average american to be
You are asking the wrong question. How willfully ignorant is the average American?
Fatally so.
all static
filter it out
go enjoy your day!
by 2013, be the same with a few another zero at the end of the number.
multipier effect...
bLAH bLAH bLAH ... UNEMPLOYMENT DOWN TO 8.5% !!!! RALLY!!!
this info is bullshit!, they are just getting ready for elections. From now on expect big manipulated infomation.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! This clown thinks we are buying this.
Unemployment Rate Drops To 8.5% - told you so: #WhatCrisis?
well as expected bull Mc Jab and McDepot Jabs and jabs making 10 bones and hour. What a Joke. I wonder if unemplyment stats reflects people working two shitty jobs to make ends meet counts as two people going back to work?? You cant make this up....... Well scratch that I guess you can.
Unadjusted Numbers (since last month):
Population: +143,000
Employed: -389,000
Unemployed: +79,000
Labor Force: -310,000
I was feeling all warm and fuzzy and then you brought me back with " Labor Force Participation At Lowest Since 1984".
I'm sorry. I was looking at the FilipinoCupid pictures. What was this discussion about?
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