NFP Payrolls At 200K, Expected At 155K; Unemployment Rate Drops To 8.5%, Labor Force Participation At Lowest Since 1984

Tyler Durden's picture


The nonfarm payroll number prints at 200K on expectations of 155K. The Unemployment rate comes at 8.5% - lowest since February 2009, and down from an upward revised 8.7%. U-6 15.2% down from 15.6% in November. Average hourly earnings rose at 0.2%, in line with expectations, previous revised to -0.1% from unchanged. Private payrolls +212L vs Expectations of 178K. Manufacturing payrolls rose 23K vs Expectations of 155K. Yet the unemployment rate trickery still continues, with labor force participation (prior revised), now at a 27 year low of 64%, and the labor force itself declined by 50K from 153,937 to 153,887. In fact, persons not in the labor force have increased by 7.5 million since January 2007! Bottom line - dropping out of labor statistics is the new killing it.

Labor Force Participation Rate:

Persons not in the labor force: an increase of 7.5 million since January 2007:

Persons who want a job now:

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Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:31 | 2038747 silver500
silver500's picture

Everything is fine at last

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:33 | 2038756 Shocker
Shocker's picture

The job market is still weak, no matter how you want to slice it. It tough to get numbers around the holiday season because always a boost in temp jobs...
We will see how it plays out a few months into the year. We dropped to 8.5% , Really seriously...
Quick reference for Layoffs/Closing

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:38 | 2038794 The Limerick King
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The rate was "expected" to rise

But "dropped" via BLS lies

The manipulation

To beat expectation

Is the game until tyranny dies 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:45 | 2038823 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Outstanding as usual, although for the last line, maybe "is the game behind tyranny's rise" would have been more fitting.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:50 | 2038842 GMadScientist
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Prefer the original; more motivational, if you get my drift.


Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:50 | 2038844 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

Thanks for the kudos Al.  Your verse is also very fitting, but I never use the same rhyming word twice in a limerick (see "rise")

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:53 | 2038865 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Ah, I missed that. I guess that's why your the king!

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:45 | 2038824 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Hurray it's over! Recovery at last... not.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:46 | 2038828 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It's TRICKY to rock a rhyme that's right on time...

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 10:28 | 2039018 fuu
fuu's picture

Tricky, tricky, tricky.

In other news 99 weeks ago today was 2/12/2010.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:49 | 2038839 depression
depression's picture

Thank Goodness for those 99 weekers that dropped of the back end of the BLS number because their UI benefits have permanently expired. We are now in the peak of that statistical effect on the headline U-3 number, it should persist for another 4-6 months.

I have been predicting 8% Unemployment when Obama is elected for his second term, but at this rapidly increasing rate of descent we could easily be in the mid 7's by November !

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:50 | 2038846 RichyRoo
RichyRoo's picture

Green shoots! (remember that one)

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 10:04 | 2038928 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



Its was Mr. Green,

on the Factory Floor.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 11:42 | 2039257 Decay is Constant
Decay is Constant's picture

with the lead pipe.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 10:15 | 2038970 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Decoupled from roots.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:44 | 2038820 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Puttin ghosts to work, instead of QE'ing. Well of course theyre still paddling free money under the surface like mad, but no free overt gifts to stocks. With centrally planned total fascism like this, who needs QE?

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 02:01 | 2347913 jaffa
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In particular when households make spending decisions assuming income to increase, or remain stable, for the years to come. When households take on credit based on this assumption, life events can easily change indebtedness into over indebtedness. Thanks a lot.
condos downtown Toronto

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:46 | 2038825 Gully Foyle
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Mr. Lahey: Who is this park, or even in the whole world, doesn't have problems? Who doesn't have a drink too many times once in a while and maybe even winds up passed out in their own driveway, pissing themselves? Who doesn't drink too much sometimes or who doesn't have a puff from time to time? And who doesn't have problems with the people they love? This is our home. This is our community. I am Jim Lahey, and *I am your trailer park supervisor!*

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 10:17 | 2038978 Bill D. Cat
Bill D. Cat's picture

Ricky : Fuck off Lahey . You're not a real cop .

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:59 | 2038891 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

It's a Miracle!

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 02:47 | 2372564 jaffa
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In addition to these three comprehensive theories of unemployment, there are a few categorizations of unemployment that are used to more precisely model the effects of unemployment within the economic system. Thanks.
reverse cell phone lookup

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:31 | 2038748 Clam McCain
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bot going crazy


Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:31 | 2038750 Sandy15
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It's because they are paying the Occupy movement with our TAX dollars...........

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:47 | 2038832 Gully Foyle
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Mr. Lahey: Birds of a shitfeather flock together, Randy.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:31 | 2038751 Irish66
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Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:34 | 2038770 vast-dom
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as in PURE BULLSHIT #'s.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:51 | 2038848 GMadScientist
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Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:31 | 2038752 achmachat
achmachat's picture

celebrate, good times come on!

it's a celebration!   (?)

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:36 | 2038779 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Party like its 99'.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:48 | 2038834 tniutnia
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... like is 84`


Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:51 | 2038853 GMadScientist
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Fri, 01/06/2012 - 10:04 | 2038923 francis_sawyer
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The BLS us using the CAREER BUILDER monkeys

Want a new job?

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:32 | 2038755 Lord Maximus
Lord Maximus's picture


Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:32 | 2038758 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Sell the news as this was holiday jobs. 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:32 | 2038759 GeneMarchbanks
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Jobs everywhere I look.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:34 | 2038760 LawsofPhysics
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The minestry of truth has spoken, now get back on those wheels and run bitches.  If you bought the rumor, it is now time to sell the news.  That last week in January could be ugly.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:33 | 2038761 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Ah life is good. I'm sure the birth death model is a modest number.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:33 | 2038766 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

You don't need to know or want to know what's in the sausage.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:52 | 2038858 GMadScientist
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Upton Sinclair approves this message.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:33 | 2038763 Boilermaker
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Is it just me, or is about 105% of the data coming out 'much better than expected'?

That seems odd to me.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:38 | 2038793 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

When 'expectations' are three inches from the floor. MOPE at its finest.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:40 | 2038801 Cdad
Cdad's picture


Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:53 | 2038864 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Gah!! They're rehypothecating labor now!

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:55 | 2038879 knukles
knukles's picture

That's 105% of data on expectations of 98% up from a revised 55% the prior week with the long term data availability by definition being 100% unadjusted for seasonal and associated imaginary factors, net of benchmark and fictional revisions derived from the redacted article on data manipulation of unreliable non-facts as supported in Wikipedia, the world's largest source of totally manufactured fact also known as propaganda.  

Source: Ministry of Truth

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:33 | 2038764 Lord Maximus
Lord Maximus's picture

As I mentionned last month....

Obama WILL have this number at 8% or lower for his re-election bid.

So get used to this.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:35 | 2038771 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, buy the rumor and ...

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:50 | 2038841 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

May be 8%, yet Obama still holds the all-time low approval number.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:58 | 2038877 depression
depression's picture

Agree 100% Lord Maximus.

I think we may be looking at a U-3 number of 7.4% on election day.

The quicker they can cut UI benefits to these chronically unemployed (and get them out of the BLS number ) the better for Obama's re-election prospects.

I assume the BLS data is vetted by David Plouffe prior to release. The important thing now is to clear the path for Obama's second term. A year from now we should be back at 6% full employment and everyone can calm down. Crisis solved.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 10:31 | 2039034 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Yes he will... there are two ways to improve the unemployment percentage:


01.)  People find jobs - by not using their benefits the percentage decreases... yay!


02.)  Peopl can't find jobs and their benefits run out - by not using their benefits (because they are gone) the percentage decreases... YAY!


Obviously the Obama administration has chosen strategy #2.

Either way the propaganda based media will cheer the lower percentage number.

Heads he wins, tails we lose.

What we need is an EMPLOYMENT number... not some manipulated, statistical, seasonaly adjusted unemployment number.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 09:34 | 2038768 docj
docj's picture

Swell. OK, since the UE rate is (suppressing gag reflex) "lowest since February 2009" can we now, finally, stop spending upwards of 10% of US GDP in deficit? Pretty please?

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