NFP Payrolls At 200K, Expected At 155K; Unemployment Rate Drops To 8.5%, Labor Force Participation At Lowest Since 1984

Tyler Durden's picture

The nonfarm payroll number prints at 200K on expectations of 155K. The Unemployment rate comes at 8.5% - lowest since February 2009, and down from an upward revised 8.7%. U-6 15.2% down from 15.6% in November. Average hourly earnings rose at 0.2%, in line with expectations, previous revised to -0.1% from unchanged. Private payrolls +212L vs Expectations of 178K. Manufacturing payrolls rose 23K vs Expectations of 155K. Yet the unemployment rate trickery still continues, with labor force participation (prior revised), now at a 27 year low of 64%, and the labor force itself declined by 50K from 153,937 to 153,887. In fact, persons not in the labor force have increased by 7.5 million since January 2007! Bottom line - dropping out of labor statistics is the new killing it.

Labor Force Participation Rate:

Persons not in the labor force: an increase of 7.5 million since January 2007:

Persons who want a job now:

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silver500's picture

Everything is fine at last

Shocker's picture

The job market is still weak, no matter how you want to slice it. It tough to get numbers around the holiday season because always a boost in temp jobs...
We will see how it plays out a few months into the year. We dropped to 8.5% , Really seriously...
Quick reference for Layoffs/Closing

The Limerick King's picture



The rate was "expected" to rise

But "dropped" via BLS lies

The manipulation

To beat expectation

Is the game until tyranny dies 

Al Huxley's picture

Outstanding as usual, although for the last line, maybe "is the game behind tyranny's rise" would have been more fitting.

GMadScientist's picture

Prefer the original; more motivational, if you get my drift.


The Limerick King's picture

Thanks for the kudos Al.  Your verse is also very fitting, but I never use the same rhyming word twice in a limerick (see "rise")

Al Huxley's picture

Ah, I missed that. I guess that's why your the king!

Harlequin001's picture

Hurray it's over! Recovery at last... not.

fuu's picture

Tricky, tricky, tricky.

In other news 99 weeks ago today was 2/12/2010.

depression's picture

Thank Goodness for those 99 weekers that dropped of the back end of the BLS number because their UI benefits have permanently expired. We are now in the peak of that statistical effect on the headline U-3 number, it should persist for another 4-6 months.

I have been predicting 8% Unemployment when Obama is elected for his second term, but at this rapidly increasing rate of descent we could easily be in the mid 7's by November !

RichyRoo's picture

Green shoots! (remember that one)

Yes_Questions's picture



Its was Mr. Green,

on the Factory Floor.

SheepDog-One's picture

Puttin ghosts to work, instead of QE'ing. Well of course theyre still paddling free money under the surface like mad, but no free overt gifts to stocks. With centrally planned total fascism like this, who needs QE?

jaffa's picture

In particular when households make spending decisions assuming income to increase, or remain stable, for the years to come. When households take on credit based on this assumption, life events can easily change indebtedness into over indebtedness. Thanks a lot.
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Gully Foyle's picture

Mr. Lahey: Who is this park, or even in the whole world, doesn't have problems? Who doesn't have a drink too many times once in a while and maybe even winds up passed out in their own driveway, pissing themselves? Who doesn't drink too much sometimes or who doesn't have a puff from time to time? And who doesn't have problems with the people they love? This is our home. This is our community. I am Jim Lahey, and *I am your trailer park supervisor!*

Bill D. Cat's picture

Ricky : Fuck off Lahey . You're not a real cop .

jaffa's picture

In addition to these three comprehensive theories of unemployment, there are a few categorizations of unemployment that are used to more precisely model the effects of unemployment within the economic system. Thanks.
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Clam McCain's picture

bot going crazy


Sandy15's picture

It's because they are paying the Occupy movement with our TAX dollars...........

Gully Foyle's picture

Mr. Lahey: Birds of a shitfeather flock together, Randy.

achmachat's picture

celebrate, good times come on!

it's a celebration!   (?)

firstdivision's picture

Sell the news as this was holiday jobs. 

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Jobs everywhere I look.

LawsofPhysics's picture

The minestry of truth has spoken, now get back on those wheels and run bitches.  If you bought the rumor, it is now time to sell the news.  That last week in January could be ugly.

Dr. Engali's picture

Ah life is good. I'm sure the birth death model is a modest number.

Boilermaker's picture

You don't need to know or want to know what's in the sausage.

GMadScientist's picture

Upton Sinclair approves this message.

Boilermaker's picture

Is it just me, or is about 105% of the data coming out 'much better than expected'?

That seems odd to me.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

When 'expectations' are three inches from the floor. MOPE at its finest.

GMadScientist's picture

Gah!! They're rehypothecating labor now!

knukles's picture

That's 105% of data on expectations of 98% up from a revised 55% the prior week with the long term data availability by definition being 100% unadjusted for seasonal and associated imaginary factors, net of benchmark and fictional revisions derived from the redacted article on data manipulation of unreliable non-facts as supported in Wikipedia, the world's largest source of totally manufactured fact also known as propaganda.  

Source: Ministry of Truth

Lord Maximus's picture

As I mentionned last month....

Obama WILL have this number at 8% or lower for his re-election bid.

So get used to this.

SheepDog-One's picture

May be 8%, yet Obama still holds the all-time low approval number.

depression's picture

Agree 100% Lord Maximus.

I think we may be looking at a U-3 number of 7.4% on election day.

The quicker they can cut UI benefits to these chronically unemployed (and get them out of the BLS number ) the better for Obama's re-election prospects.

I assume the BLS data is vetted by David Plouffe prior to release. The important thing now is to clear the path for Obama's second term. A year from now we should be back at 6% full employment and everyone can calm down. Crisis solved.

Zymurguy's picture

Yes he will... there are two ways to improve the unemployment percentage:


01.)  People find jobs - by not using their benefits the percentage decreases... yay!


02.)  Peopl can't find jobs and their benefits run out - by not using their benefits (because they are gone) the percentage decreases... YAY!


Obviously the Obama administration has chosen strategy #2.

Either way the propaganda based media will cheer the lower percentage number.

Heads he wins, tails we lose.

What we need is an EMPLOYMENT number... not some manipulated, statistical, seasonaly adjusted unemployment number.

docj's picture

Swell. OK, since the UE rate is (suppressing gag reflex) "lowest since February 2009" can we now, finally, stop spending upwards of 10% of US GDP in deficit? Pretty please?